Core Insights - Precious metals, particularly silver, have seen significant price increases in 2023, with silver prices reaching historical highs, surpassing $50 per ounce for the first time on October 9, and peaking at $53.765 per ounce on October 17, marking an over 70% increase since January 2 [1][5]. Market Demand and Supply - In the Shenzhen Shui Bei market, there is a high demand for silver bars, but limited availability, with some stores requiring a one-month wait for large orders [2]. - The supply of silver bars is tight, with many online platforms showing zero inventory for smaller quantities, indicating a strong demand-supply imbalance [2]. - China ranks among the top five countries globally in silver reserves, holding approximately 11% of the world's total, with a projected silver production of 3,426 tons and a recovery of 1,233 tons in 2024 [4]. Price Drivers - The surge in silver prices is attributed to several factors, including global economic and geopolitical risks, a weakening dollar, and increased central bank purchases of gold, which enhance the investment appeal of precious metals [5]. - The industrial demand for silver is significant, with an expected total consumption of 9,428 tons in 2024, of which 8,567 tons will be driven by industrial applications, particularly in the electrical and electronic sectors [4]. Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that while precious metals have seen substantial gains, there is still room for growth, especially as they serve as a hedge against inflation and a potential alternative to the dollar [6]. - However, potential risks include a rapid decline in global inflation, a strengthening dollar, or a reduction in geopolitical tensions, which could diminish the demand for precious metals [5][6].

大宗商品研究、咨询和投资管理研究机构CPM Group的中国 区总经理曲硕表示，当前，影响金价的因素里，避险需求是核 心因素，其次是通胀、货币等次要因素。此外，还有制造业需 求带来的负面影响，美联储降息的影响也比较小。 作者： 刘颖 封图：图虫创意 2019年，国际金价开启新一轮上涨，疫情后突破2000美元/盎司；2021年至2023年，国际金价进入横向波动期，其中2022年受美联储加息预期影响出现 回调；2024年，国际金价有效突破2000美元/盎司，当年3月因地缘风险增加，年内一度上涨突破2800美元/盎司，年均价2600美元/盎司；2025年，国 际金价屡创新高，4月达3500美元/盎司，10月7日突破4000美元/盎司。 经济观察报：回调周期的影响因素有哪些？ 曲硕： 黄金回调多由市场恐慌性抛盘引发，也容易受到其他市场波动的影响。当市场出现挤兑事件时，恐慌情绪会快速蔓延，投资者会集中抛售各类 资产，黄金往往会被连带抛售。如2020年金价先跌至近1000美元/盎司，后逐步回升。 10月17日，伦敦现货黄金触及4380美元/盎司的历史高点后，出现震荡调整。最终，当日报收4251美元/盎司，下跌1.73%， ...

记者 刘颖 10月17日，伦敦现货黄金触及4380美元/盎司的历史高点后，出现震荡调整。最终，当日报收4251美元/盎司，下跌1.73%，但仍处于历史高位水平。 在这一波黄金暴涨行情中，有人选择了高位变现，有人追高入市。 作为穿越经济周期的传统避险资产，黄金价格的每一轮剧烈波动都与全球经济格局、地缘政治风险、货币政策走向等核心变量深度绑定。当前，金价的凌厉 涨势背后，是避险资金加速涌入、资产配置逻辑重塑与市场情绪共振的多重作用。 10月16日，大宗商品研究、咨询和投资管理研究机构CPM Group的中国区总经理曲硕就金价历史运行规律、当前核心驱动力量、产业端供需变化及普通投资 者应对策略等问题，接受了经济观察报记者的专访。 【对话】 经济观察报：从历史数据看，国际金价走势有哪些规律？近年来，金价的具体波动情况如何？是否存在上涨或回调周期？ 经济观察报：当前推动金价上涨的关键力量是什么？是否有数据支撑？ 曲硕：当前，影响金价的因素里，避险需求是核心因素，其次是通胀、货币等次要因素。此外，还有制造业需求带来的负面影响，美联储降息的影响也比较 小。 从避险需求来看，主要有三方面推动：一方面是美国总统特朗普的政策预期 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices has led to varied consumer behaviors in the gold jewelry market, with some seeking to cash in on profits while others rush to purchase amid rising prices [1][6]. Price Trends - As of October 20, domestic gold jewelry prices have reached approximately 1200 CNY per gram, a 46.3% increase from 820 CNY per gram in January [1]. - New York gold futures have surpassed 4372.7 USD per ounce, with a single-day increase of 1.58% [1]. Consumer Behavior - There is a noticeable trend of consumers preferring to buy smaller gold jewelry pieces (under 5 grams) to meet decorative needs while minimizing investment costs [3][6]. - The average daily gold recycling volume has reached around 30 grams, with most transactions being exchanges rather than outright sales of gold bars or bricks [1]. Market Dynamics - A significant price disparity exists between wholesale and retail markets, with retail prices exceeding wholesale prices by over 20% [3]. - The "one-price gold" phenomenon has emerged, where certain gold products are perceived as offering better value compared to fluctuating market prices [6]. Investment Insights - The World Gold Council reports that central banks globally are increasing their gold reserves, with a net purchase of 415 tons expected in the first half of 2025 [6]. - The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to enhance the appeal of non-yielding gold as an investment [6]. Recommendations for Consumers - For decorative purposes, consumers are advised to consider purchasing small-weight jewelry from wholesale markets [7]. - For investment, caution is advised due to potential short-term price corrections, with suggestions to consider dollar-cost averaging or investing in physical gold bars for long-term holdings [7].

Core Viewpoint - Recent surges in international and domestic gold prices have led to multiple jewelry brands announcing price increases for gold products, reflecting a broader trend in the market [1][5]. Group 1: Price Increases by Companies - Lao Pu Gold announced its third price increase of the year, with retail prices expected to rise by 12% to 18% by the end of October [2]. - Chow Sang Sang has already implemented price increases for gold jewelry, with price hikes ranging from 25% to 35% since October 16 [4]. - Chow Tai Fook plans to adjust its gold jewelry prices by approximately 15% by the end of the month [4]. Group 2: Factors Driving Gold Price Increases - The rapid increase in gold prices began in late August, with a rise of over 25% in London gold spot prices from August 21 to October 15 [5]. - Key drivers include rising global risk aversion, declining confidence in the US dollar, and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5][7]. - Central banks worldwide have been increasing their gold reserves, with a reported addition of 166 tons in Q2 of this year, contributing to the upward pressure on gold prices [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook for Gold Prices - Market institutions predict that gold prices may continue to rise due to factors such as further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, high US government debt, and increasing geopolitical risks [7]. - Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for gold prices in December 2026 from $4,300 to $4,900 per ounce, citing diversification in investments as a potential driver for increased ETF holdings [7]. - Despite the bullish outlook, there are concerns about potential profit-taking and the impact of alternative investments, such as cryptocurrencies, on gold's safe-haven status [7].

10月20日，黄金股票ETF（517400）盘中回调超4%。 黄金股票ETF（517400）跟踪的是SSH黄金股票指数（931238），该指数从市场中选取涉及黄金采掘、 冶炼及销售等业务的50只较大市值上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映黄金产业链相关企业证券的整体 表现。该指数具有行业集中度高、风格偏向价值投资的特点，同时兼具偏中小市值风格与龙头效应。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 东莞证券指出，贵金属方面，美联储10月降息几成定局，且美国政府停摆持续加剧不确定性，美元信用 下滑奠定金价上行基础，同时地缘政治延续为金价提供托底支撑。在降息预期叠加避险需求提升的背景 下，金价在中长期仍具备上行动力。白银与黄金具备类似的金融属性及货币属性，近期因伦敦市场白银 流动性紧缩，进一步推升白银价格上行。 工业金属方面，Grasberg矿山停产引发铜供应链担忧，叠加美联储降息预期打开宏观宽松空间，铜价上 行具备动力。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market has seen significant price increases this year, with silver prices reaching historical highs, outperforming gold in terms of percentage growth [1][9]. Market Demand and Supply - As of October 9, the spot silver price surpassed $50 per ounce for the first time, with COMEX silver reaching $53.765 per ounce, a more than 70% increase from $29.985 per ounce on January 2 [1]. - In the Shenzhen Shui Bei market, there is a high demand for silver bars, but limited availability, leading to a waiting period of about one month for larger orders [2]. - China's silver reserves rank among the top five globally, accounting for approximately 11% of the world's total silver reserves, with over 1,500 silver mines [3]. - The primary sources of silver supply in China are from mining and recycling, with projected mining output of 3,426 tons and recycling of 1,233 tons in 2024 [5]. Industrial Demand - Industrial demand for silver is significant, with total silver consumption in China expected to reach 9,428 tons in 2024, of which 8,567 tons will be driven by industrial needs, particularly in the electrical and electronic sectors [7]. Price Trends and Market Dynamics - The recent surge in silver prices is attributed to global economic and geopolitical factors, including increased demand for safe-haven assets, a weaker dollar, and rising inflation concerns [9]. - The silver market has experienced a tight supply situation, with limited increases in COMEX silver warehouse receipts despite rising physical delivery demand [9]. - Analysts suggest that while precious metals have seen substantial gains, they may face short-term corrections due to potential shifts in macroeconomic conditions [10].

Global Economic Outlook - The IMF projects global economic growth of 3.2% in 2025, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from July's forecast[4] - The U.S. economy is expected to grow by 2.0% in 2025, while the Eurozone is projected to grow by 1.2%[4] - The rise in U.S. tariffs is identified as a major source of global uncertainty, impacting economic stability[4] U.S. Economic Policies - The U.S. government shutdown continues, with potential layoffs of over 10,000 federal employees and a freeze on approximately $11 billion in infrastructure project funding[5] - New tariffs of 25% on imported medium and heavy trucks and parts will take effect on November 1[5] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October has risen to 100%[7] Market Performance - U.S. stock indices showed moderate gains: S&P 500 up 1.7%, Dow Jones up 1.6%, and Nasdaq up 2.1%[17] - European stocks also saw slight increases, with the STOXX 600 index rising by 0.4%[17] - In contrast, Asian markets faced declines, with the Nikkei 225 down 1.1% and the Hang Seng Index down 4.0%[17] Commodity Prices - Gold prices surged by 6.3%, reaching $4224.8 per ounce, driven by increased safe-haven demand amid market uncertainties[24] - Oil prices continued to decline, with Brent and WTI crude down 2.3% each, settling at $61.3 and $57.5 per barrel respectively[24] Currency Movements - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.27%, closing at 98.56, while the euro and pound appreciated against the dollar[26][27] - The Chinese yuan experienced a slight decline of 0.05% against the dollar, closing at 7.1265[27]

欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 文 | 对冲研投研究院 编辑 | 杨兰 摘要 上周包括鲍威尔在内的多位联储官员陆续表态，总体言论还是较为鸽派。鲍威尔的讲话中表示要考虑结束缩表，并且进一步夯实了市场对 10 月降息的预期，风险资产一度反弹。但是周后期美国银行体系再次出现问题，市场风险偏好有所回落，美股有所回调，一定程度上对铜价形 成了拖累，随后黄金也出现获利了结的回调。 核心观点 01 金银先扬后抑，铜价有所调整 贵金属方面，上周 COMEX 黄金上涨 5.76%，白银 上涨 6.55%；沪金2512合约 上涨 10.9%，沪银2512 合约上涨 10.53%。主要工业金 属价格中，COMEX铜、沪铜分别变动+3.15%、-1.77%。 关注美国银行问题的进一步发展 0 2 上周包括鲍威尔在内的多位联储官员陆续表态，总体言论还是较为鸽派。鲍威尔的讲话中表示要考虑结束缩表，并且进一步夯实了市场 对 10月降息的预期，风险资产一度反弹。但是周后期美国银行体系再次出现问题，市场风险偏好有所回落，美股有所回调，一定程度上 对铜价形成了拖累。 黄金高位回调 0 3 上周，美国政府停摆持续，鲍威尔的表态略显鸽派，同时美国两家地 ...

Market Performance - The Nikkei 225 index in Japan reached a historical high, increasing by approximately 2.2% [3] - The South Korean Composite Index rose by 0.36%, marking its third consecutive day of setting historical highs [1] - U.S. stock futures showed minor fluctuations, with the Nasdaq 100 futures slightly up by 0.03% [1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. stock market indices all closed higher last Friday, providing a positive lead for the Asia-Pacific markets [1] - Investors are focusing on trade tensions while attempting to recover from significant sell-offs caused by credit concerns in regional banks [1] - Upcoming economic data, including the U.S. CPI, is expected to attract global market attention [2] Gold Market - Gold prices experienced a mild decline, having previously recorded the largest single-day drop since May of the previous year [1] - Gold has seen a continuous increase for nine weeks, with a year-to-date rise of over 60% as of 2025, supported by central bank purchases and inflows into exchange-traded funds [2] - Technical indicators suggest that the strong upward trend in gold prices since August of the previous year may be overheating, facing potential correction pressure [1][2]