政策与流动性层面，Wmax的宏观研究团队通过劳动力市场、财政部资金流动等宏观变量交叉验证后认为，当前风险资产波动与流动性收紧的组合，反而可 能强化美联储的前瞻性宽松逻辑——疲软的劳动力市场与阶段性流动性约束，将进一步提升12月降息落地的概率，而近期美联储核心官员的表态已印证这一 政策推演，相关信号已通过"降息受益股"的阶段性强势得到市场反馈，构成中期行情的重要政策支撑。 从市场结构与技术面来看，Wmax的交易策略团队基于技术面关键均线支撑与系统性基金资金流向的双重确认，判断前期美股抛售已基本告一段落： S&P500指数与纳斯达克100指数在100日均线附近获得稳固支撑，波动率控制基金等系统性机构已转向净买入，11月的市场洗盘充分重置了拥挤交易仓位， 为年底反弹扫清障碍。结合历史季节性规律与动量策略的周期特征，团队特别指出，11月动量股的阶段性回调已提前释放短期压力，叠加AI产业链核心标 的的业绩韧性与相关产业政策支持，12月动量股有望迎来趋势性反弹，成为年底行情的重要主线之一。 近期美股受美联储政策基调调整与流动性波动影响出现阶段性震荡，表面看似温和的指数回调下，市场内部结构分化已呈现显著特征。基于对宏观周期 ...

2025年11月25日A股全线回暖，截至10:44，中证小盘500指数强势上涨2.07%，成分股中材科技、英维 克双双10cm涨停，菲利华上涨9.92%，生益电子，盛科通信等个股跟涨。 数据显示，截至2025年10月31日，中证小盘500指数前十大权重股分别为胜宏科技、华工科技、先导智 能、芯原股份、欣旺达、卧龙电驱、指南针、通富微电、赤峰黄金、润和软件，前十大权重股合计占比 7.51%。 中证500ETF(159922)紧密跟踪中证小盘500指数，第一大权重行业电子占比超17%，聚焦科技中小盘。 场外投资者还可通过中证500ETF联接基金(070039)一键布局A股中小盘投资机遇。 中国银河证券发布2026年A股市场投资展望表示，"十五五"开局之年改革政策预期强化，人民币汇率向 上等价格因素支撑流动性向好，市场信心有望得到提振。在居民存款搬家持续演绎、机构投资者加大入 市力度、全球资本流向重塑叠加政策工具护航下，A股市场仍将受益于流动性向上逻辑。 华安证券表示，当前良性调整期间幅度已接近历史可比情形，预计进一步调整空间不大，成长科技仍是 下一阶段上涨行情的最强主线。配置思路上，华安证券认为，短期轮动增多加快 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic GPU company, Moore Threads, is experiencing significant attention in the capital market amid the accelerated local replacement in the global AI industry chain, with its IPO on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board marking a new high for A-share IPO prices since 2025 at 114.28 yuan per share [1][10]. Group 1: IPO Details - Moore Threads' IPO has garnered substantial interest from institutional investors, with 267 offline investors participating in the initial inquiry phase, leading to a total subscription of over 700 billion shares and an offline subscription multiple of 1572 times [1][3]. - The company plans to issue 70 million shares, resulting in a market capitalization of approximately 53.7 billion yuan on the first day of trading [10]. - The initial effective subscription multiple for the online issuance was approximately 4126.49 times, prompting the activation of a mechanism to adjust the allocation between offline and online subscriptions [2][11]. Group 2: Institutional Participation - A notable number of public and private funds participated in the subscription, with 86 public funds and 124 private funds involved, indicating a strong interest in the "domestic high-performance GPU + AI computing power track" [2][3]. - Major public funds, such as Southern Fund and E Fund, utilized a significant number of products to enhance their chances of winning allocations, with Southern Fund using 404 products to apply for a total of 5.285 billion shares [6][7]. Group 3: Pricing and Market Sentiment - The price range during the inquiry phase varied from 88.79 yuan to 159.57 yuan, with some institutions willing to offer a premium, reflecting high expectations for the company's growth potential [4][5]. - The highest effective bid came from a public fund at 122.94 yuan per share, indicating differing views on the company's valuation among investors [4]. Group 4: Company Performance and Future Outlook - Moore Threads has not yet achieved profitability, reporting revenues of 46 million yuan, 124 million yuan, and 438 million yuan for 2022, 2023, and 2024 respectively, with net losses of 1.894 billion yuan, 1.703 billion yuan, and 1.618 billion yuan during the same period [11][12]. - The company has developed a comprehensive computing acceleration platform since its establishment in 2020, focusing on GPU technology and related hardware and software systems, with applications in AI computing centers, digital twin rendering, and high-performance computing [10][11].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the real estate market in China is under pressure, with expectations for policy changes to stimulate demand, including mortgage subsidies for new home buyers and tax rebates for borrowers [4] - The construction materials sector is anticipated to see a valuation recovery as the fundamentals of cyclical building materials companies have bottomed out [4] - Cement prices are expected to rise in the short term due to supply constraints from seasonal production policies, despite a recent decline in demand [5] - The glass industry is facing a downward trend in demand, with high inventory levels among intermediaries, and the need for policy changes to improve market conditions [6] - The fiberglass sector is experiencing growth driven by demand from the AI industry, with expectations for a significant increase in both volume and price [6] - The consumer building materials segment has reached a profitability bottom, with strong price increase demands from companies following years of competition [6] Summary by Sections Cement - National cement market prices have decreased recently, with a production volume of 148 million tons in October, down 15.8% year-on-year [10] - Demand is still under pressure, but there is a slight improvement expected in November due to project rush [10] Glass - The glass industry is experiencing a continuous decline in demand, with traditional peak season orders showing limited improvement [17] - Supply-demand imbalances persist, and the industry is closely monitoring policy changes for potential recovery [17] Fiberglass - The fiberglass sector is seeing price increases of 5%-10% due to collaborative pricing efforts among manufacturers, with strong demand from the AI sector [6] Consumer Building Materials - The industry has reached a profitability bottom, with no further downward price pressure expected, and companies are actively seeking price increases [6]

Market Performance Review - The A-share market experienced a significant decline this week, with major indices unable to avoid losses. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 2.72%, while the ChiNext Index saw the largest drop of 6.15%. The small-cap indices, CSI 500 and CSI 1000, also performed poorly, declining by 5.78% and 5.80% respectively [4][12] - All major styles recorded negative returns, with the financial style down by 2.85%, the smallest decline among styles, while the cyclical style dropped by 6.05%, the largest [4][12] - In terms of market capitalization, large-cap stocks outperformed small and mid-cap stocks, maintaining the trend of larger stocks being more resilient during downturns. Core assets represented by the "Mao Index" and "Ning Combination" also saw significant declines, with the Ning Combination down 7.64% and the Mao Index down 3.63% [4][12] Industry Analysis - All primary industries experienced declines, with banking showing relative resilience. The banking sector fell by only 0.89%, while other sectors like power equipment (-10.54%), comprehensive (-9.18%), and basic chemicals (-7.47%) faced larger losses [4][15] - The A-share market's recent downturn aligns with historical patterns of retreat following previous uptrends, particularly affecting sectors like AI, resource products, and new energy, which had previously seen gains [4][15] Future Outlook and Investment Strategy - The report anticipates continued market volatility, with the A-share market expected to remain under pressure due to a dual vacuum period in policy and performance from November to December. The lack of significant movement in household deposits suggests weaker future capital support for the market [5][33] - The investment strategy emphasizes maintaining a growth style, focusing on sectors with strong performance trends and favorable policy expectations. The transition from a fast bull market driven by corporate capital to a slower bull market led by public funds is expected to be challenging [5][33] - Two specific strategies are recommended: investing in photovoltaic equipment that meets the "turnaround + high growth" criteria post-Q3 reports, and targeting commercial sectors and low-altitude economy industries that have lagged since September [5][33]

Core Viewpoint - The mechanical and automation equipment industry is expected to benefit from external demand and the "two new" sectors (emerging industries and new infrastructure) by 2025, with leading performance in sub-sectors such as construction machinery, electrical power grids, and energy equipment [1] Group 1: Industry Trends - The emerging sectors, including the AI industry chain and high-end equipment manufacturing, are showing high levels of prosperity [1] - Investment in equipment and tools is maintaining a high growth rate of 13% in the first ten months of 2025, reflecting the significant effects of large-scale equipment renewal policies [1] - It is anticipated that these policies will continue to support manufacturing investment in 2026 [1] Group 2: Investment Products - The Robot Industry ETF (159551) tracks the Robot Index (H30590), focusing on companies involved in the research, manufacturing, and application of robotics [1] - The index highlights technological innovation and industrial automation trends, aiming to reflect the overall development performance in the field of intelligent equipment and automation solutions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent rumors surrounding Industrial Fulian (富联) and its relationship with NVIDIA, particularly regarding the potential impact of NVIDIA's Level-10 (L10) system on the company's performance and market position [2][3][5]. Group 1: Market Rumors and Clarifications - There has been a surge of rumors about Industrial Fulian, primarily focusing on its role as a core asset in computing power and its advancements with ASIC manufacturers like Google [2]. - An analyst's comments during Wistron’s Q3 earnings call suggested that NVIDIA might supply L10 systems directly to partners, which has led to confusion regarding the company's product strategy [3]. - The article emphasizes that the claims about transitioning from L6 to L12 are incorrect, as NVIDIA has only achieved L6 so far [3]. Group 2: Performance Expectations - The article mentions that despite the rumors, Industrial Fulian's Q4 cabinet deliveries are expected to grow by over 30% quarter-on-quarter, indicating a positive outlook for the company's performance [4]. - The downward revision of Q4 performance guidance is questioned, as it seems unreasonable to adjust forecasts so soon after the Q3 report, especially when other business segments remain stable [5]. - The cloud computing segment is projected to see a continued increase in gross margin due to successful GB200 shipments and improved production efficiency with GB300 [5]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The article outlines the various levels of integration in the production process, from component manufacturing to multi-rack cluster integration, highlighting the complexity of the supply chain [6]. - It notes that in the GB200/300 series, CSPs (Cloud Service Providers) can customize their AI server trays significantly, which may be impacted by NVIDIA's push for standardized L10 trays [11]. - JP Morgan's analysis suggests that CSPs may oppose NVIDIA's standardization efforts, which could lead to a more concentrated competitive landscape among ODMs [10][11]. Group 4: Future Prospects - Industrial Fulian's ASIC customization business is expected to enter a substantial deployment phase next year, with projections indicating a revenue contribution ratio of 2:8 for ASIC to GPU [9]. - The article concludes that the current situation remains uncertain, and the market tends to react negatively to any adverse news, necessitating a rational perspective on the developments [11].

格隆汇11月24日｜申万宏源策略发文，"怀疑牛市级别"的调整正在发生，但这个阶段更要坚定牛市认 知。调整到位(核心赛道牛熊分界线附近)就是一个大级别的底部，可以等待"牛市2.0"。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ "牛市两段论"是A股牛市周期的典型特征。牛市1.0阶段(2013、2017和2025)，机构投资者风格切换基本 完成+赚钱效应累积产生质变+产业趋势资产性价比不足。牛市1.0到2.0的过渡期(2014年2-10月、2018 年，本轮可能是2026上半年)，等待全面牛市条件累积+产业趋势调整后磨底，消化性价比问题。牛市 2.0全面牛(2015、2021，本轮可能是2026下半年)，核心是基本面周期性改善/产业趋势新阶段 + 居民资 产配置向权益迁移。 展望2026年行业风格节奏，牛市1.0到2.0的过渡阶段，高股息防御可能占优；牛市2.0阶段经济体感改善 (实际改善)将催化顺周期引领指数突破，最终科技产业趋势和制造业全球影响力提升才是牛市主线。 当前，AI产业链"产业趋势大波段没结束+中小波段有波折+长期低性价比区域"，这神似2014年初的创 业板、2018年初的食品饮料、2021年初的新能源 ...

Group 1: Economic Overview and Federal Reserve Insights - The U.S. September non-farm payroll data presents a mixed picture, with 119,000 jobs added, exceeding market expectations, but the unemployment rate rising to 4.4% [3][12] - Average hourly earnings increased by only 0.2% month-on-month in September, a significant slowdown from 0.4% in August, indicating potential wage pressures [3][12] - The Federal Reserve's internal views are divided, and the market's expectations for a December rate cut have fluctuated significantly, influenced by recent economic data [3][11] Group 2: Oil and Gas Industry Outlook - The oil and gas extraction sector is expected to see supply slow down, with Brent crude oil prices projected to range between $55 and $70 per barrel in 2026 [3][13] - OPEC+ is expected to slow its production increase, while non-OPEC supply growth is anticipated to decline significantly, particularly in shale oil production [3][13] - Global GDP growth is forecasted at approximately 3.1% in 2026, with a corresponding slowdown in oil demand growth [3][13] Group 3: Petrochemical Sector Analysis - The refining sector is anticipated to recover due to a contraction in global supply and the implementation of "anti-involution" policies in China, which may enhance the competitiveness of leading companies [3][21] - The polyester sector is expected to see a tightening supply-demand balance, with significant recovery potential, particularly for high-quality companies in the polyester filament and bottle-grade sectors [3][21] - Investment recommendations include focusing on leading refining companies such as Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical, as well as high-dividend oil companies like China National Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil [3][21]

Core Viewpoint - The recent significant decline in the A-share market is primarily attributed to external factors rather than internal market issues, with a notable impact from U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve interest rate expectations [2][4]. Market Performance - The A-share market experienced a nearly 4% drop in a single week, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling 2.45% on November 21, marking the second-largest single-day decline of the year [4]. - Over six trading days, the Shanghai Composite Index recorded a total decline of 4.83%, indicating heightened market anxiety [4]. Fund Flow Dynamics - Despite the market downturn, there was a significant inflow into ETFs, with a net inflow of 766.16 billion yuan into equity ETFs from November 17 to 21, demonstrating a "buy the dip" mentality among investors [4]. - On November 21 alone, 414 billion yuan flowed into equity ETFs, highlighting strong investor interest in these instruments during market corrections [4]. Sector Performance - The sectors that previously led the market, such as AI and lithium batteries, were among the hardest hit during the recent adjustment, while defensive sectors like banking showed resilience [4]. - The banking sector played a crucial role in stabilizing the market, exhibiting defensive characteristics amid rising risk aversion [4]. Future Outlook - Fund companies express a cautious outlook for the short term, while maintaining a belief in a long-term slow bull market [5].