转自：期货日报 近期，国际原油市场多空因素交织，整体呈现复杂震荡格局。展望后市，俄乌局势的演变仍是影响油市 的关键变量，若双方达成协议，俄罗斯原油供应约束放松，将加大全球原油供应过剩压力，油价将面临 进一步调整风险。 美元走强压制大宗商品价格走势 北京时间11月20日凌晨，美国劳工统计局宣布，因部分关键数据无法正常采集，将不再单独发布10月非 农就业报告，原定于12月5日发布的11月报告推迟至12月16日公布。这意味着美联储在年内最后一次政 策决策前，将完全缺失10月以来的关键就业数据支撑，就业数据空窗期的延长进一步加剧了货币政策的 不确定性，并显著提升美联储暂停降息的概率。 与此同时，美联储最新公布的10月会议纪要显示，决策层内部存在严重分歧。官员们就12月是否实施连 续第三次降息争议激烈：部分委员主张继续降息以应对就业市场疲软风险，另有多位成员明确支持按兵 不动，而多数与会者认为，进一步降息可能会增加高通胀固化风险，或被误解为美联储对实现2%通胀 目标缺乏承诺。 受此影响，市场对美联储降息预期迅速降温。CME"美联储观察"工具显示，交易员对12月降息25个基 点的概率预测从48.9%降至32.7%。美元指 ...

上周，避险情绪主导全球金融市场，全球主要股市悉数下跌，其中科技股波动幅度显著。在这一传导效 应下，A股市场同样经历调整，上证指数失守3900点。新能源、光伏、电力设备等板块回调明显，银 行、船舶制造、消费等少数概念相对抗跌。对于近期市场的波动，券商研报分析认为，海外"AI泡沫"焦 虑、美联储降息预期回落、资金情绪趋于谨慎等因素共振，引发了全球主要市场联动下挫。在这一背景 下，A股市场也难以完全避免冲击。但支撑本轮中国股市上涨行情的基本面因素并未出现变化。前期热 门主线的估值消化完成后，投资者可积极布局来年春季行情。（上证报） ...

上周，避险情绪主导全球金融市场，全球主要股市悉数下跌，其中科技股波动幅度显著。在这一传导效 应下，A股市场同样经历调整，上证指数失守3900点。新能源、光伏、电力设备等板块回调明显，银 行、船舶制造、消费等少数概念相对抗跌。 该机构分析称，前期热门主线的成交集中度已出现不同程度的消化，意味着交投情绪降温及风险消化。 交易层面的阻力释放后，若后续产业层面催化剂出现，市场情绪有望再度回暖。 对于近期市场的波动，券商研报分析认为，海外"AI泡沫"焦虑、美联储降息预期回落、资金情绪趋于谨 慎等因素共振，引发了全球主要市场联动下挫。在这一背景下，A股市场也难以完全避免冲击。但支撑 本轮中国股市上涨行情的基本面因素并未出现变化。前期热门主线的估值消化完成后，投资者可积极布 局来年春季行情。 海外市场波动加剧引发A股回调 近期，受美股AI板块高位震荡及海外"AI泡沫"讨论升温影响，A股科技板块同步出现明显调整，拖累主 要指数下行。对于近期市场的回调，机构普遍认为外部扰动是主要诱因。 兴业证券表示，11月以来，受美联储降息预期回落、"AI泡沫"言论影响，全球风险资产跟随美股同步调 整，近期A股与港股的波动随之加剧。中银国际证 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a significant downturn, with the ChiNext Index dropping 6.15% in one week and falling below the 3000-point mark on November 21. Over 5000 stocks declined, leading to a total market value loss of over 30 billion yuan in a single day [1][3]. - The decline in the A-share market was part of a broader global market downturn, with the Nasdaq Composite Index experiencing a drop of over 2% after initially rising by 2%. The Nikkei 225 and the KOSPI also saw significant declines of 2.4% and 3.79%, respectively [1]. Sector Performance - The ChiNext Index led the decline, with the STAR 50 and Shenzhen Component Index also falling over 5%. The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 3.90% [3]. - The lithium battery industry faced a sharp decline, with the lithium mining index dropping 9.67% in a single day, affecting major stocks like Shengxin Lithium Energy and Ganfeng Lithium, which hit their daily limit down [4]. - The computing power sector also saw a collective pullback, with stocks like New Yisheng and Zhongji Xuchuang dropping 8.46% and 5.69%, respectively [4]. Factors Behind the Decline - The primary factor for the market downturn was the cooling of expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, with the probability of a December rate cut falling below 40% after strong U.S. employment data [6]. - Additionally, turmoil in the Japanese bond market, with 10-year and 30-year bond yields rising sharply, raised concerns about global liquidity tightening, further exacerbating the sell-off in risk assets [8]. - Internally, the A-share market had accumulated significant profit-taking pressure after previous rebounds, with high valuations in some popular sectors leading to a correction [8]. Analyst Insights - Several brokerages have characterized the current market adjustment as a normal correction within a longer-term bullish trend, suggesting that the underlying bullish logic for A-shares remains intact [10]. - Analysts from various firms believe that the market will continue to experience fluctuations in the short term, with a lack of new catalysts leading to cautious behavior among investors [12][16]. - The ChiNext Index, which had previously shown strong bullish characteristics, is currently undergoing a normal pullback, with its price-to-earnings ratio returning to a moderate level [14]. Future Market Outlook - Institutions generally expect the market to maintain a volatile pattern in the short term, with a focus on stock rotation and potential sector shifts as the year-end approaches [16][18]. - Some analysts suggest that the market may see a transition to a spring rally after November, particularly if the market stabilizes and begins to recover from the recent adjustments [22]. - Investment strategies should focus on maintaining reasonable positions and avoiding impulsive trading, with an emphasis on quality growth stocks that can withstand market fluctuations [20].

让人惊讶的是，稳定币巨头Tether成了黄金市场的一个新"大玩家"。 Jefferies投资银行的报告指出，Tether在三季度增持了约26吨黄金，总储备达到116吨， 相当于全球黄金需求的2%。 这家公司甚至成了全球最大的非主权黄金持有者，持金规模和一些小国家的央行差不多。 俄罗斯自己家里也能消化不少黄金。 为了鼓励老百姓买黄金，俄罗斯政府取消了零售黄金交易的增值税。 过去四年里，俄罗斯民众累计买了大约282吨黄 金，2025年预计还会再买62.2吨。 这个量，差不多是西班牙或奥地利一个国家黄金储备的水平了。 俄罗斯央行突然开始抛售他们那2300多吨黄金储备了！ 这可是全球第五大黄金储备国啊，历史上他们一直把黄金当"压箱底"的宝贝，这次居然要卖掉换钱 花。消息一出，金价只是稍微晃了晃，今年涨幅依然超过50%。 不是说大量抛售会压低价格吗？ 这剧本好像不对啊。 俄罗斯这次真的是被逼到墙角了。 西方冻结了他们大约3000亿欧元的外汇储备，相当于一半的家底被锁死了。 同时，战争每天要烧掉7亿美元，财政缺口越 来越大，预计2025年到2027年累计会超过600亿美元。 说白了，就是现金流快断了，不得不动用平时绝对不 ...

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a significant downturn, with Bitcoin dropping below the $80,000 mark, reflecting a decline of over 30% from its historical peak of $126,000 in early October, marking a new low in seven months [1][3]. Market Performance - Bitcoin's latest price is $86,161, with a daily increase of 2.91% but a weekly decline of 8.32% [1]. - Ethereum is priced at $2,805, with a weekly drop of 10.12% and a monthly decline of 26% [3]. - Other cryptocurrencies like SOL, BNB, and Dogecoin have also suffered significant losses, exceeding 20% [3]. Market Dynamics - The downturn is attributed to multiple factors, including reduced expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December, tightening liquidity, and a strong negative correlation between Bitcoin and the US dollar index [3]. - Institutional funds that previously supported Bitcoin's rise are showing signs of withdrawal, influenced by a cooling of pro-crypto policies post-US elections and a correction in tech stocks [3]. Investor Sentiment - The market is experiencing heightened fear, with a significant number of liquidations occurring; over $1 billion in contracts were liquidated in 24 hours, affecting approximately 183,500 traders [3]. - The current situation is seen as a notable indicator of a deep correction in the cryptocurrency market, with widespread panic impacting market confidence [3]. Risk Factors - Investors face several risks, including liquidation risk due to leveraged trading, market liquidity risk, and policy risk, which can exacerbate market volatility [4]. - The fear of a bear market is prevalent among cryptocurrency participants, prompting discussions about the sustainability of the $80,000 support level [4]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that if the $80,000 support level holds, there may be a potential for a rebound, although the strength and sustainability of such a rebound remain uncertain due to ongoing adverse factors [4]. - Long-term price movements for Bitcoin are expected to be driven by macro liquidity, institutional participation, and regulatory policies [5].

周五，A股各大指数普遍大跌，上证指数跌2.45%，成交量有明显放大。 这是自今年4月初上涨以来，最大的单日跌幅！ 大概有多半年没见过如此大的跌幅了，估计不少朋友都有疑问，为什么跌幅这么大？上涨结束了？ 对于涨跌，其实我向来不赞成事后找原因的。 因为一是没什么用处，二是事后总是能找到一堆原因。 对于专业交易者来说，专注于交易系统的执行就够了，分析反而会造成干扰。 但既然大家都喜欢找原因，那不妨也来分析一下。 第一个原因就是外盘影响，美股大跌主要因素还是美联储降息预期的下降及AI高估值争议的影响（英伟达财报不错，但市场反应很差，结果高开低走大 阴线）； 第二个原因就是受股指期货交割日的影响，交割日效应常起到放大波动的作用。 银行考核存贷比使市场资金面收紧，叠加节假日效应，投资者持币观望情绪升温，成交量萎缩加剧波动。 上述原因其实只是导火索，市场本身具有自己内在的规律，外在因素不过是引发或推动了行情发展。 下面这张图是11月20日的分析配图，原文在这里。 大盘缩量阳孕线，多方力度还不够！ 11月20日大盘日线图 当时就指出多方力度不行，紧接着第二天，高开低走再形成一个阴线，这样三根K线就形成了空方炮看空K线组合。 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates that the market has experienced significant fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 1000 Index showing contrasting performances in the recent week and year-to-date [3][5][20] - The CSI 1000 Index enhancement strategy has shown a year-to-date return of 21.60%, outperforming the benchmark index by 2.97% [4][18] Market Performance - In the week of November 17-21, 2025, the Shanghai 50 and CSI Dividend Index had the best performances with returns of -2.72% and -3.69%, while the Micro-cap Index and ChiNext Index had the worst returns at -7.80% and -6.15% respectively [3][7] - Year-to-date, the Micro-cap Index and ChiNext Index led with returns of 66.12% and 36.35%, while the CSI Dividend and Shanghai 50 Index lagged with returns of -0.48% and 10.10% [8][20] Strategy Performance - For the week, the CSI 1000 Index enhancement strategy yielded a return of -5.89%, slightly underperforming the index return of -5.80, resulting in an excess return of -0.09% [4][12] - For the month, the strategy's return was -6.45%, compared to the index's -5.85%, leading to an excess return of -0.60% [16] - Year-to-date, the strategy has achieved a return of 21.60%, outperforming the index return of 18.63% by 2.97% [18] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the CSI 1000 Index has shown weak performance recently, attributed to external uncertainties and internal market pressures, indicating a potential for continued volatility [5][20] - The report emphasizes the need for investors to be cautious of the high volatility associated with the CSI 1000 Index, as it may face significant downward pressure in the near term [5][20]

Core Viewpoint - UBS has raised its gold price target for mid-2026 from $4,200 to $4,500 per ounce, indicating a potential upside of over 12% from current levels [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Price Performance - Gold has been one of the best-performing asset classes in 2025, with an increase of nearly 60% year-to-date, stabilizing above $4,000 per ounce [3]. - In October, gold prices reached a historical high of nearly $4,400 per ounce before retreating below $4,000 [3]. Group 2: Factors Driving Price Increase - Key factors supporting the rise in gold prices include expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and declining real yields, which make gold more attractive as a non-yielding asset [5]. - Geopolitical uncertainties and changes in the U.S. domestic policy environment, particularly related to upcoming midterm elections and increasing fiscal risks, are also significant supports for gold prices [5]. Group 3: Changes in Demand Structure - The demand structure for gold is evolving, with increased participation from institutional investors and notable purchases by central banks [7]. - UBS estimates that central bank gold purchases will reach approximately 900 tons in 2026, significantly higher than the annual average of 450 to 500 tons from 2010 to 2021 [7]. Group 4: Institutional Outlook on Gold - Multiple Wall Street institutions, including Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, are optimistic about gold prices, with Goldman predicting a price of $4,900 by the end of 2026 and JPMorgan projecting a range of $4,975 to $5,062 per ounce [12][13]. Group 5: Strategies for Ordinary Investors - UBS recommends that ordinary investors allocate around 5% of their total assets to gold to enhance portfolio diversification and provide a buffer against systemic risks [16]. - The firm suggests a strategy of buying on dips, indicating that investor allocation to gold remains insufficient [16]. Group 6: Future Price Predictions - UBS anticipates that gold prices may consolidate around $4,300 after the U.S. midterm elections in 2026, with potential to reach $4,900 if political and financial risks escalate [18]. - The trend of central banks and investors purchasing gold is likely to continue, reinforcing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset amid increasing global economic and political uncertainties [18].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel price is limited in its upward movement due to the long - term logic of hydrometallurgy replacing pyrometallurgy and weak refined nickel demand. However, in the short - term, with marginal improvement in the macro - environment and the resonance of news, there may be a certain degree of price repair. Attention should be paid to the subsequent progress of Indonesian news [1]. - The stainless steel market has a weak fundamental situation, but the downside is also limited. The market is affected by macro - marginal factors and policy uncertainties in Indonesia [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Fundamentals - **Nickel**: The inventory accumulation of refined nickel has slowed down. The demand for corrosion - resistant alloys is under pressure, and the proportion of using ferronickel to replace nickel plates in the nickel alloy segment has increased. The long - term supply increase expectation of low - cost hydrometallurgy remains. Macro - level, dovish remarks from the Fed have boosted expectations, and there are many uncertainties in Indonesia, which may support the nickel price in the short - term [1]. - **Stainless steel**: The fundamentals are weak, with high upstream inventory, low terminal manufacturing investment growth, and weak post - production cycle consumption. The market is in a seasonally weak period, and the supply - demand relationship has shifted from strong supply and weak demand to weak supply and demand, showing a slight surplus. The cost of ferronickel has limited downward space, and short - selling at low levels is not cost - effective. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policy risks [2]. Inventory Tracking - **Refined nickel**: China's social inventory decreased by 1099 tons to 53144 tons, with warehouse receipt inventory decreasing by 1242 tons to 33785 tons, and spot inventory increasing by 143 tons to 15589 tons. The bonded area inventory remained unchanged at 3770 tons. LME nickel inventory increased by 1860 tons to 253950 tons [3][4]. - **New energy**: On November 14, the inventory days of upstream, downstream, and integrated production lines of SMM nickel sulfate changed by 0, +1, 0 month - on - month to 4, 9, 7 days respectively; the precursor inventory changed by - 0.6 month - on - month to 12.3 days; on November 13, the ternary material inventory changed by - 0.2 month - on - month to 6.9 days [4]. - **Ferronickel - stainless steel**: On October 31, the SMM ferronickel inventory was 30225 tons, with a year - on - month/ month - on - month increase of +3%/+2%. In October, the SMM stainless steel factory inventory was 1.574 million tons, with a year - on - month/ month - on - month increase of +9%/3%. On November 20, 2025, the total social inventory of stainless steel in the Steel Union was 1071733 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.11%. Among them, the total inventory of cold - rolled stainless steel was 621623 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.51%, and the total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel was 658798 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.17% [4]. Market News - In September, due to violations of forestry license regulations, the Indonesian forestry working group took over a more than 148 - hectare nickel mining area of PT Weda Bay Nickel, which is expected to affect the monthly nickel ore production by about 600 metal tons [5]. - China has suspended an unofficial subsidy for copper and nickel imported from Russia [6]. - In September, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies for failing to provide claim and refund guarantees. The sanctions will be lifted once the companies submit claim plan documents and place claim guarantees for 2025 [6]. - In September, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources issued a ministerial order regarding the preparation, submission, and approval procedures of the mining RKAB for the next year. The approval plan is expected to be completed by November 15 this year, and there are transition clauses [6]. - Trump claimed to impose an additional 100% tariff on China and implement export controls on "all key software" starting from November 1 [7]. - The Indonesian government has suspended the issuance of new smelting licenses for certain nickel - related products through the OSS platform [7]. - Due to strengthened safety inspections in Indonesian industrial parks, some nickel hydrometallurgy projects will reduce production loads to clean up tailings slag ponds in December, affecting the output by about 6000 nickel metal tons [7]. - On November 21, the New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Governor Stephen Miran made dovish remarks, prompting investors to increase the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in December [7].