Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing fluctuations, with recent price declines following a brief rise above $4100 per ounce, influenced by various economic factors and market sentiments [1][4]. Price Movements - On November 21, the London spot gold price fell by 1%, dropping below $4030 per ounce, before recovering slightly to $4062.65, a decrease of 0.34% [1]. - COMEX gold also saw a decline of 0.37%, settling at $4044.9 per ounce [1]. - Domestic gold prices followed suit, with Shanghai Gold Exchange reporting Au99.99 at 924.44 yuan, down 0.59% [2]. Market Analysis - Analysts suggest that the recent employment report from the U.S. indicates a mixed sentiment in the market, with both hawkish and dovish perspectives being supported [4]. - The strengthening of the U.S. dollar is attributed to speculation regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, contributing to the current market uncertainty [4]. Future Outlook - Despite short-term pressures on gold prices, long-term demand for gold is expected to remain strong due to factors such as high U.S. debt, elevated stock valuations, and ongoing geopolitical risks [4][5]. - UBS has raised its mid-2026 gold price target from $4200 to $4500 per ounce, citing expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and strong demand from central banks and ETFs [4][6]. - The potential for increased gold demand is anticipated due to geopolitical uncertainties and changes in U.S. domestic policies [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have experienced fluctuations, with recent data indicating a decline in both international and domestic gold prices, influenced by various market factors [1][5][7]. Price Movements - As of November 21, 2023, the London spot gold price was reported at $4056.41 per ounce, reflecting a daily decline of approximately 0.5%, while the Shanghai Gold Exchange's price for Au99.99 was 922.22 yuan per gram, down about 0.8% [1]. - Several domestic gold jewelry brands have adjusted their prices, with variations noted among them. For instance, Chow Sang Sang's gold jewelry price was 1295 yuan per gram, down 12 yuan from the previous day, while Lao Miao's price was 1298 yuan per gram, down 4 yuan [5]. Market Dynamics - The World Gold Council's report for October indicated that the Chinese gold market experienced a rise followed by a decline, with overall positive trends. The first half of October saw gold prices reach new highs due to ETF buying and increased risk, while the latter half saw a pullback due to easing geopolitical risks and profit-taking [7]. - In October, the Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold outflow reached 124 tons, an increase of 6 tons month-on-month and a year-on-year rise of 17 tons, indicating heightened investment interest in gold [7]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that gold prices will continue to experience volatility, with a potential for a prolonged period of fluctuation until market conditions stabilize. Factors such as the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions are expected to exert pressure on gold prices in the short term [8]. - The recent changes in China's value-added tax policy may impact domestic gold jewelry demand, as consumers will bear additional tax burdens. However, the long-term trend of rising gold prices may reduce price sensitivity among consumers [9].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic commodity market experienced a widespread decline on November 21, primarily influenced by external market weaknesses, with significant drops in various sectors, particularly lithium carbonate and precious metals [1][2][3]. Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1458.04 points, down 16.46 points or 1.12% from the previous trading day [1]. - The China Securities Commodity Futures Index closed at 2015.90 points, down 22.76 points or 1.12% from the previous trading day [1]. - Most active commodities, except for some agricultural products, saw declines, with lithium carbonate hitting a daily limit down of 9% [1][2]. Group 2: Lithium Carbonate Market - The lithium carbonate market faced a rapid cooling, with multiple contracts, including the main contract, closing at the daily limit down, leading the commodity market decline on November 21 [2]. - The market's downturn was exacerbated by the announcement from the Guangxi Futures Exchange to raise trading fees and margin requirements for certain lithium carbonate contracts, further dampening bullish sentiment [2]. - The main contract saw a significant reduction in positions, with over 68,000 contracts reduced and a net outflow of more than 2.2 billion yuan [2]. Group 3: Precious Metals Market - Precious metals also suffered from the overall market weakness, with the main silver contract dropping 3.7% and gold down 1.4% [3]. - The release of better-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll data diminished expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, contributing to the decline in precious metals [3]. - Despite short-term pressures, analysts believe the long-term fundamentals supporting precious metals remain intact, suggesting a potential rebound after adjustments [3]. Group 4: Agricultural Products Performance - In contrast to industrial commodities, certain agricultural products showed resilience, with starch and corn contracts rising over 1%, leading the commodity market [4]. - The strength in the corn market is attributed to reduced new grain supply from Northeast China and strong demand from feed enterprises, with average feed enterprise inventory increasing by 2.42% week-on-week [4][5]. - The oilseed sector exhibited mixed performance, with soybean oil and meal generally declining, while rapeseed meal saw a rebound after reaching a low point [5].

Report Summary - During the period from November 19th to November 25th, 2025, rainfall in the main Southeast Asian natural rubber producing areas increased compared to the previous cycle. High-precipitation areas north of the equator were mainly concentrated in Vietnam and southern Thailand, while most other areas had low precipitation, increasing the impact on rubber tapping. South of the equator, high-precipitation areas were mainly in western Indonesia and western Malaysia, with medium rainfall in most other areas, also increasing the impact on rubber tapping [5]. - The synthetic rubber market remained volatile this week. On Friday, the market was significantly affected by the macro environment. Due to the non-farm payroll data, the Fed's interest rate cut expectation weakened, putting pressure on global financial assets and affecting commodity sentiment. Fundamentally, domestic rubber producing areas are gradually entering the production reduction and suspension period, and overseas main producing areas are easily affected by rainfall, resulting in limited raw material supply and stable to slightly stronger prices, providing cost support for rubber. Natural rubber inventories increased slightly overall, while inventories in Qingdao Free Trade Zone decreased slightly, with overall inventory pressure not significant. The supply-demand contradiction of synthetic rubber is more prominent than that of natural rubber. Since this year, the capacity expansion of butadiene and synthetic rubber has accelerated, with supply at a relatively high level. Recently, the capacity utilization rates of both all-steel and semi-steel tire enterprises have declined, especially the semi-steel tire enterprises, showing the seasonal off-season effect. The overall tire inventory reduction pressure is large, suppressing the overall tire capacity utilization rate. The supply-demand imbalance has put obvious pressure on the butadiene rubber market. Overall, the natural rubber market lacks prominent contradictions and is likely to move in a volatile manner. Synthetic rubber prices are likely to be weak due to supply-demand mismatch, but the short-term stabilization of butadiene prices provides some support below. Attention should be paid to the widening spread between natural rubber and synthetic rubber [6]. - In October 2025, China's natural rubber (including technical classification, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) imports were 510,800 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 14.27% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.9%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import volume was 5.2281 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 17.27% [7]. - In September, the US non-farm payrolls increased by 119,000, more than twice the expected figure, but the non-farm payrolls in July and August were revised down by a total of 33,000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4% in September, the highest since October 2021. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased by 8,000 to 220,000, and the number of continuing jobless claims reached a four-year high. After the data release, swap contracts continued to show that the possibility of a Fed rate cut in December was low [7]. Bull and Bear Focus - Bullish factors include that natural rubber inventory pressure is not obvious and natural rubber raw material prices are supported. Bearish factors include the weakening of tire enterprise operating rates and the weakening of the Fed's interest rate cut expectation, which puts pressure on financial assets [10]. Data Analysis - As of November 20th, the price of Thai raw material latex was 57 Thai baht per kilogram, slightly up from last week. The price of latex in Yunnan was 13,900 yuan per ton, and the raw material price in Hainan was 13,000 yuan per ton, remaining stable from last week. Domestic rubber producing areas are gradually entering the production reduction and suspension period, and overseas main producing areas are easily affected by rainfall, resulting in limited raw material supply and stable to slightly stronger prices, providing cost support for rubber [11]. - As of November 16th, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 452,600 tons, a month-on-month increase of 3,100 tons or 0.70%. The bonded area inventory was 66,600 tons, a decrease of 1.76%, and the general trade inventory was 386,000 tons, an increase of 1.13%. The inbound rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses decreased by 0.05%, and the outbound rate decreased by 1.53%. The inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 1.37%, and the outbound rate decreased by 1.71%. As of November 16th, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.062 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 5,000 tons or 0.5%. China's total social inventory of dark rubber was 670,000 tons, an increase of 0.8%. China's total social inventory of light rubber was 392,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.01% [14]. - This week, the price of butadiene, the raw material for butadiene rubber, continued to rebound. Although both the production and inventory of butadiene increased, the price had fallen to the lowest level of the year, attracting some buyers to enter the market at low prices. In addition, the short-term upward trend in the market stimulated the "bottom-fishing" sentiment of downstream buyers, and the trading atmosphere improved significantly. At the same time, the good performance of the main downstream products boosted butadiene, and suppliers raised prices, gradually reducing the low-price supply in the market and pushing up the trading center. However, as the price increased, sellers were more willing to sell, and some high-price transactions began to face resistance. As of November 20th, the delivered price in the central Shandong region was 7,480 - 7,600 yuan per ton, and the ex-tank self-pickup price in East China was around 7,100 yuan per ton. As of the week of November 21st, the theoretical production profit of butadiene rubber was 788.2857 yuan per ton, an increase of 181.43 yuan per ton from last week. The price of butadiene rubber moved in tandem with the raw material butadiene price, and the production enterprise's profit continued to improve [15]. - According to Steel Union data, as of the week of November 21st, the production of high-cis butadiene rubber was 29,166 tons, an increase of 1,090 tons from last week. The in-plant inventory of butadiene rubber was 26,630 tons, an increase of 780 tons from last week, and the trader inventory was 4,880 tons, a decrease of 90 tons from last week. This week, enterprises had good production profits and high willingness to operate, with production remaining at a high level. However, downstream buyers were resistant to the price, and the trading atmosphere weakened, resulting in poor inventory reduction in the factory [18]. - As of the week of November 21st, the capacity utilization rate of all-steel tire sample enterprises was 62.04%, a month-on-month decrease of 2.25% but a year-on-year increase of 1.56%. The average inventory available days of sample enterprises were 40.24 days, a month-on-month increase of 0.69 days but a year-on-year decrease of 0.57 days. The capacity utilization rate of semi-steel tire sample enterprises was 69.36%, a month-on-month decrease of 3.63% and a year-on-year decrease of 10.4%. The in-plant inventory available days of sample enterprises were 45.86 days, a month-on-month increase of 0.5 days and a year-on-year increase of 7.69 days. This week, the capacity utilization rates of both all-steel and semi-steel tire enterprises declined, especially the semi-steel tire enterprises, showing the seasonal off-season effect. The overall tire inventory reduction pressure is large, suppressing the overall tire capacity utilization rate [19]. - As of November 20th, the spread of the "RU-NR" January contract fluctuated narrowly, and the spread of the "NR-BR" main contract fluctuated, mainly due to the support from the raw material side [21]. Market Outlook - From a macro perspective, due to the non-farm payroll data, the Fed's interest rate cut expectation weakened, putting pressure on global financial assets and affecting commodity sentiment. Fundamentally, domestic rubber producing areas are gradually entering the production reduction and suspension period, and overseas main producing areas are easily affected by rainfall, resulting in limited raw material supply and stable to slightly stronger prices, providing cost support for rubber. Natural rubber inventories increased slightly overall, while inventories in Qingdao Free Trade Zone decreased slightly, with overall inventory pressure not significant. The supply-demand contradiction of synthetic rubber is more prominent than that of natural rubber. Since this year, the capacity expansion of butadiene and synthetic rubber has accelerated, with supply at a relatively high level. Recently, the capacity utilization rates of both all-steel and semi-steel tire enterprises have declined, especially the semi-steel tire enterprises, showing the seasonal off-season effect. The overall tire inventory reduction pressure is large, suppressing the overall tire capacity utilization rate. The supply-demand imbalance has put obvious pressure on the butadiene rubber market. Overall, the natural rubber market lacks prominent contradictions and is likely to move in a volatile manner. Synthetic rubber prices are likely to be weak due to supply-demand mismatch, but the short-term stabilization of butadiene prices provides some support below. Attention should be paid to the widening spread between natural rubber and synthetic rubber [25].

Core Insights - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant downturn, influenced by Nvidia's strong earnings report and unexpected non-farm payroll data, raising concerns about an AI bubble and interest rate cuts [1][2][4][6] Market Reaction - Major U.S. indices, including the Nasdaq, saw a sharp decline, with the Nasdaq dropping 4.7%, marking its largest intraday drop since April [2] - The VIX index, which measures expected stock market volatility, rose above 26 for the first time since April, indicating increased market anxiety [2] Nvidia's Performance - Nvidia reported third-quarter revenue of $57 billion, a 62% year-over-year increase, and a net profit of $31.9 billion, up 65% year-over-year, exceeding market expectations [4] - The company projected strong sales for its Blackwell and Rubin product lines, estimating $500 billion in overseas sales over the next six fiscal quarters [5] Employment Data Impact - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 119,000 in September, the strongest monthly gain since April, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, the highest since 2021 [6] - The employment data has led to a cooling of interest rate cut expectations, with a 60.4% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain rates in December [6] Market Liquidity and Trading Dynamics - Market liquidity has decreased, with average liquidity in the S&P 500 trading dropping to $6 million, indicating a thin trading environment that can lead to significant price volatility [10] - The proportion of ETF trading volume surged to 41%, significantly above the year-to-date average of 28%, suggesting that passive and macro-driven funds are dominating market movements [10] AI Sector Concerns - There are growing doubts about the sustainability of AI demand and the high valuations of tech stocks, with concerns that the AI ecosystem may be experiencing a bubble [12][13] - The reliance on debt financing for capital expenditures among major tech companies raises questions about the long-term viability of AI investments [12][13] Overall Market Sentiment - The current market downturn reflects a concentrated release of negative sentiment, driven by the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and pressures on tech stock valuations [14] - The potential for a significant adjustment in the market remains, but the likelihood of a deep correction similar to earlier this year is considered low [15]

Core Viewpoint - The global financial markets are experiencing a significant downturn, driven by rising risk aversion and a decline in U.S. interest rate cut expectations, leading to widespread asset sell-offs [1][4]. Market Performance - Asian markets saw substantial declines, with the MSCI Asia Emerging Markets Index dropping 2.78%, and major indices in South Korea and Japan falling by 3.79% and 2.4% respectively [2]. - The A-share market also faced turbulence, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 2.45% and the Shenzhen Component Index down 3.41% [2]. - European markets opened lower, with major indices like the Euro Stoxx 50, FTSE 100, CAC 40, and DAX 30 all declining over 1% [1]. - Cryptocurrency markets were heavily impacted, with Bitcoin dropping over 9% at one point, falling below $82,000 [1][2]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. labor market showed stronger-than-expected growth, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 119,000 in September, surpassing the forecast of 50,000 [3]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has decreased to 35.1%, with a 64.9% chance of maintaining current rates [3][4]. Investment Outlook - Vanguard predicts that the ongoing investment in AI infrastructure will bolster U.S. economic growth, leading to fewer rate cuts than the market anticipates [4][5]. - The firm expects the U.S. GDP growth to rise from 1.9% this year to 2.25% by 2026 due to sustained AI spending [5]. - Concerns have been raised about potential vulnerabilities in private credit asset valuations and their implications for the financial system [5]. Market Sentiment - High volatility and risk aversion have led investors to adopt a protective stance, focusing on hedging against market risks [5][6]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that regardless of market movements, CTA funds will act as net sellers, with significant programmatic selling likely if the S&P 500 index falls below 6457 points [6].

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing significant declines, with Bitcoin dropping below $82,000, marking its lowest point since April 7, and a 24-hour loss of over $11,000, reflecting a decline of more than 9% [1]. Group 1: Bitcoin and Major Cryptocurrencies - Bitcoin reached a low of $81,111, with a current price of $83,973, down over 9% [1]. - Ethereum fell by 10.8%, while other cryptocurrencies like SOL, XRP, Dogecoin, and ADA saw declines of 11.7%, 10.5%, 11.6%, and 13.3% respectively [2][3]. - The total liquidation in the cryptocurrency market over the past 24 hours amounted to $1.914 billion, affecting approximately 392,000 traders, with long positions accounting for $1.78 billion of the liquidations [4][5]. Group 2: Economic Factors Influencing the Market - Analysts indicate that expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut have significantly cooled, alongside concerns about an artificial intelligence bubble, posing challenges for cryptocurrencies and risk assets as the year ends [6]. - The U.S. labor statistics report showed an unexpected increase in non-farm employment by 119,000 in September, leading to a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.4%, the highest since October 2021 [6]. - The market currently estimates a 42% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December [7]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Cleveland Fed President warns that current financial conditions are "quite loose," suggesting that further rate cuts could exacerbate financial stability risks [8]. - Analysts predict Bitcoin's price is currently fragile, with estimates suggesting it could drop to $75,000 by year-end, as previous bullish drivers like rate cuts have failed to sustain upward momentum [8]. - The likelihood of Bitcoin falling below $90,000 by year-end has risen to 50%, with only a 30% chance of surpassing $100,000 by 2025 according to options market data [9].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. non-farm payroll report for September exceeded expectations, with an increase of 119,000 jobs, significantly higher than the market forecast of 50,000 and the previous value of 22,000. However, the market's reaction to this data was relatively muted, as indicated by the minor fluctuations in the U.S. dollar index and precious metals [1][3]. Group 1: Employment Data Analysis - The September non-farm payroll increase of 119,000 jobs, while higher than previous values and expectations, remains low compared to earlier months, such as May when the increase was 323,000 jobs, approximately three times the September figure [3]. - The employment market showed improvement in September compared to the previous months of May to August, but it still appears weak when compared to earlier periods [3]. - The positive non-farm data has led to a decrease in the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, dropping to 40% from over 90% a month prior, according to CME Group's FedWatch data [3]. Group 2: Future Employment Reports - The upcoming non-farm payroll reports for October and November are uncertain due to the government shutdown, which affected data collection for October and may impact the November report as well [3]. - The potential delay in the release of the November non-farm payroll report is anticipated, as the first Friday of December may not see timely publication due to data collection issues [3]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Despite the strong non-farm employment report, the market's response was subdued, with the U.S. dollar index showing a volatility of only 0.09% and gold and silver fluctuating by 0.15% and 0.98%, respectively [1]. - The dollar index had already shown a bullish trend prior to the data release, suggesting that some investors may have positioned themselves in advance [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices are under pressure due to a stronger US dollar and reduced expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, despite some support from geopolitical uncertainties and economic concerns related to the US government shutdown [1][3] - The latest non-farm payroll report showed an addition of 119,000 jobs in September, significantly above the market expectation of 50,000, with average hourly earnings increasing by 3.8% year-on-year, which is slightly higher than the expected 3.7% [1] - The unemployment rate rose from 4.3% to 4.4%, but overall labor market data remains robust, leading to a decreased probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, currently estimated at about 35% [1] Group 2 - Gold prices are currently hovering around $4,020, which is close to a one-month upward trendline support area and coincides with the 200-period exponential moving average, forming a significant support zone [3] - If gold prices break below this support area, they may further decline to below the psychological level of $4,000, potentially approaching $3,931 or the October low of $3,886 [3] - On the upside, if prices steadily break above $4,100 and gain confirmation, they may test the $4,152-$4,155 range and could approach the $4,200 round number [3]

（文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经北京11月21日电中国外汇投资研究院金融分析师张正阳表示，日本通胀水平已连续三年维持在 央行2%目标之上，且最新经济数据表现良好，这为日本央行再次加息提供了条件。目前日本政府的宽 松政策立场与日本央行的加息倾向形成对立，可能导致日元短期内继续承压。然而，随着日本央行可能 坚持货币政策正常化，以及美元可能因美联储降息预期而延续贬值，日元存在一定回升机会。 ...