| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价甲醇(日,元/吨) | 2239 | 20 甲醇9-1价差(日,元/吨) | -67 | 2 | | | 主力合约持仓量:甲醇(日,手) | 725631 | 32553 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:甲醇(日,手) | -91038 | -4449 | | | 仓单数量:甲醇(日,张) | 7754 | -80 | | | | 现货市场 | 江苏太仓(日,元/吨) | 2410 | -10 内蒙古(日,元/吨) | 2115 | -15 | | | 华东-西北价差(日,元/吨) | 295 | 5 郑醇主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 171 | -30 | | | 甲醇:CFR中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 268 | 0 CFR东南亚(日,美元/吨) | 340 | 0 | | | FOB鹿特丹(日,欧元/吨) | 250 | -6 中国主港-东南亚价差(日,美元/吨) | -72 | NAN | | 上游情况 | NYM ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the holiday, polysilicon showed a weak and volatile trend. The main contract 2506 closed at 36,410 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 2.39%, and the open interest decreased by 510 lots to 53,756 lots. The SMM N-type polysilicon price was 40,500 yuan/ton, and the spot premium over the main contract widened to 4,090 yuan/ton. Industrial silicon also showed a weak and volatile trend. The main contract 2506 closed at 8,325 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 2.57%, and the open interest increased by 12,934 lots to 17,950 lots. The Baichuan industrial silicon spot reference price was 9,637 yuan/ton, down 128 yuan/ton from the last trading day before the holiday. The price of the lowest deliverable 553 grade dropped to 8,650 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened to 280 yuan/ton. Before the holiday, traders cleared their inventories and pressured prices, and the downstream's willingness to stock up was lower than in previous years. After the holiday, the downstream demand still faced the pressure of a slowdown. Industrial silicon was affected by the negative feedback from the downstream and was difficult to get out of the bottom-finding rhythm. The adjustment flexibility of polysilicon production was relatively high, and the space for a sharp decline after the holiday was relatively limited compared with industrial silicon, mainly showing a narrow correction. Opportunities for the convergence of the spread between near and far months could be considered. Attention should be paid to whether large-scale infrastructure or mandatory photovoltaic installation assessment policies will be newly introduced after the decline of distributed photovoltaics, which may trigger an oversold rebound [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main and near-month contracts decreased by 175 yuan/ton to 8,370 yuan/ton. The prices of various grades of industrial silicon in different regions generally declined, with a decrease of 50 - 100 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable price dropped by 50 yuan/ton to 8,650 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened by 125 yuan to 280 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 69,236, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFE) inventory decreased by 1,330 tons to 346,180 tons, the factory inventory decreased by 5,900 tons to 244,100 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 7,900 tons to 409,100 tons [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main and near-month contracts decreased by 835 yuan/ton to 36,410 yuan/ton. The polysilicon spot prices remained unchanged. The current lowest deliverable price remained at 40,500 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened by 835 yuan to 4,090 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 30, the GFE inventory increased by 60,000 tons to 90,000 tons, the factory inventory increased by 0.8 million tons to 28.37 million tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.8 million tons to 28.4 million tons [4]. - **Organic Silicon**: The DMC price in the East China market remained unchanged at 12,000 yuan/ton, the prices of raw rubber and 107 glue remained unchanged, and the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 2,200 yuan/ton to 15,000 yuan/ton [4]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells remained unchanged [4]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost - End Prices**: Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [6][13]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [16][18][20]. - **Inventory**: Charts present the industrial silicon futures inventory, factory inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [23][26]. - **Cost - Profit**: Charts show the average cost and profit levels in major production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, aluminum alloy processing industry profit, DMC cost - profit, and polysilicon cost - profit [29][31][32].

【国富期货早间看点】欧盟24/25年棕榈油累计进口243万吨 巴西 24/25大豆产量料为1.721亿吨 20250507 2025/5/7 09:39 【国富期货早间看点】欧盟24/25 243 24/25 1.721 20250507 2025年05月07日 07:44 上海 01 隔夜行情 | | 收盘价 | 上日流跌幅(%) | 隔夜流跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油07(BMD) | 3749.00 | -0.91 | -1. 13 | | 布伦特07(ICE) | 62. 04 | 2.97 | -0. 48 | | 美原油06(NYMEX) | 59.00 | 3.09 | -0. 54 | | 美豆07(CBOT) | 1040. 50 | -0. 53 | -0. 10 | | 美豆箱07(CBOT) | 292. 90 | -0. 91 | -0. 78 | | 美豆油07(CBOT) | 48. 30 | -0.90 | -0. 25 | | | 最新价 | 流跌幅(%) | 十日 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

色書高明 中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，本报告反映研究人员的不同 分析方法，并不代表厂发期货或具制累机构的立场。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，设告中的信息或所表达的意见并不构成所选品种买卖的出价或问 者福比较多,风险自相,本报告宣在发治广发期货特信客户及其他专业人士,版权归广发期货所有,未给广发期货所有,未给广发期货书面将 任何形式的发布、复制,如引用、刊发,需注明出处为"广发期货" 知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共矿 然橡胶产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年5月7日 Z0021810 寇帝斯 | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 2月6日 | 4月30日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 云南国营全乳胶(SCRWF):上海 | 14700 | 14500 | 200 | 1.38% | | | 全乳基差(切换至2509合约) | -115 | -રેર | -60 | -109.09% ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the soybean and peanut industries is neutral [3][6] Core Viewpoints - The peanut market is in a state of relatively loose supply and demand, with prices oscillating weakly in the short - term. The soybean market is in a game between policy support and loose supply - demand, remaining stable in the short - term, while long - term trends depend on state reserve rotation policies and the arrival schedule of South American soybeans [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean View Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the soybean 2505 contract was 4209.00 yuan/ton yesterday, a change of +21.00 yuan/ton (+0.50%) from the previous day. Spot: The edible soybean spot basis was A05 - 89, a change of - 81 (32.14%) from the previous day. On Monday, CBOT soybean futures closed down, with the benchmark contract down 1.18%. In the domestic market, on May 6, the prices of national standard first - class protein soybeans in various regions of Heilongjiang decreased by 0.03 yuan/jin [1] - Yesterday, domestic soybean prices oscillated. In April, the demand for domestic soybeans from crushers and protein factories increased significantly due to difficult customs clearance of imported soybeans. Bean product factories mainly replenished based on rigid demand. Farmers had little remaining grain and were reluctant to sell, resulting in a weak purchasing atmosphere. The prices of soybeans in the Northeast production area increased by 0.09 - 0.13 yuan/jin, and those in the local production area increased by 0.09 - 0.12 yuan/jin [1][2] Strategy - The strategy for the soybean market is neutral [3] Peanut View Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2505 contract was 8028.00 yuan/ton yesterday, a change of - 32.00 yuan/ton (-0.40%) from the previous day. Spot: The average peanut spot price was 8240.00 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The spot basis was PK05 - 128.00, a change of - 68.00 (+113.33%) from the previous day. As of April 30, 2025, the national average price of common peanuts was 8240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton from the previous month [3][4] - Yesterday, domestic peanut prices oscillated. In April, peanut prices continued to decline weakly, with some main production areas' quotes remaining weakly stable. Traders in the domestic market had low purchasing willingness and generally adopted a strategy of replenishing inventory as needed. The approaching festivals recently drove a partial increase in demand, and the sales volume in some markets improved slightly [4][5] Strategy - The strategy for the peanut market is neutral [6]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-05-07 工业硅继续创新低，关注开工变化 工业硅： 市场分析 2025-05-06，工业硅期货价格偏弱震荡，主力合约2506开于8500元/吨，最后收于8325元/吨，较前一日结算变化（-220） 元/吨，变化（-2.57）%。截止收盘，2506主力合约持仓179536手，2025-05-06仓单总数为68930手，较前一日变化 -306手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9200-9400（-100）元/吨；421#硅在10100-10300 （-100）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8600-8700（-50）元/吨，99硅价格在8600-8700（-50）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、天 津、新疆、四川、上海、西北地区硅价也继续走跌。97硅价格同样走跌。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价11300-11800（0）元/吨。据SMM了解，截至当前，有机硅DMC库存呈现 下降趋势，前期下游企业抄底叠加大厂检修影响下，成交量快速回暖，预计5月整体单体企业库存仍表现小幅下降 趋势。 当天工业硅期货盘面价格再度探底，现货价格弱势运行。供给端方面， ...

日报 | 2025-05-07 策略 谨慎做空套保 港口库存回升速率仍慢，基差偏强 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤430元/吨（-30），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润765元/吨（+5）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线2100元/吨（-55），内蒙北线基差481元/吨（-23），内蒙南线2150元/吨（+0）；山东临沂2380元/吨（-60），鲁 南基差361元/吨（-28）；河南2320元/吨（-65），河南基差301元/吨（-33）；河北2345元/吨（-115），河北基差386元 /吨（-83）。隆众内地工厂库存283350吨（-26250），西北工厂库存171000吨（-7600）；隆众内地工厂待发订单249630 吨（-53045），西北工厂待发订单112800吨（-47000）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2420元/吨（-23），太仓基差201元/吨（+9），CFR中国268美元/吨（+0），华东进口价差47元/ 吨（+6），常州甲醇2525元/吨；广东甲醇2370元/吨（-45），广东基差151元/吨（-13）。隆众港口总库存537400吨 （+74200），江苏港口库存248 ...

日报 | 2025-05-07 棉糖延续震荡，纸浆走势偏弱 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2509合约12745元/吨，较前一日变动-5元/吨，幅度-0.04%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到厂 价13846元/吨，较前一日变动-79元/吨，现货基差CF09+1101，较前一日变动-74；3128B棉全国均价14113元/吨， 较前一日变动-70元/吨，现货基差CF09+1368，较前一日变动-65。 近期市场资讯，据美国农业部统计，至5月4日全美棉花播种进度21%，同比落后2个百分点，较近五年均值领先1 个百分点，处于近年中等水平。其中得州播种进度25%，同比领先2个百分点，较近五年均值领先3个百分点，处于 近年偏快水平。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价窄幅震荡。宏观方面，4月下旬美国释放可能对华关税降温信号，市场情绪得到改善，但中方表示中 美并没有就关税问题进行磋商或谈判，当前关税所带来的宏观风险尚未完全结束，国内面对外部冲击，财政政策 和扩大内需的力度预计增强，需关注后续国内宏观政策落地情况。国际方面，4月USDA报告小幅上调本年度全球 棉花期末库存，整体调整中性偏空。不过市场对于24/25 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [4] - Arbitrage: Suspended [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - In the off - season of consumption, the supply and demand of lead may show a weak pattern, and macro uncertainties will continuously interfere with the trend of non - ferrous metals. It is recommended to conduct sell - hedging operations around 17,200 yuan/ton [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On May 6, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$10.29/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price changed by -100 yuan/ton to 16,600 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 0 yuan/ton to 0.00 yuan/ton, SMM Guangdong lead spot changed by -75 yuan/ton to 16,625 yuan/ton, SMM Henan lead spot changed by -100 yuan/ton to 16,575 yuan/ton, and SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by -125 yuan/ton to 16,625 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,300 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells remained unchanged at 10,150 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells changed by 50 yuan/ton to 10,525 yuan/ton [2] Futures - On May 6, 2025, the main contract of SHFE lead opened at 16,755 yuan/ton, closed at 16,700 yuan/ton, a change of -140 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 36,146 lots, a change of 1,712 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 38,454 lots, a change of 2,348 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,780 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,625 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of SHFE lead opened at 16,740 yuan/ton, closed at 16,675 yuan/ton, a 0.05% decrease from the afternoon close [3] Inventory - On May 6, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 46,000 tons, a change of 600 tons from the same period last week. As of November 28, the LME lead inventory was 261,500 tons, a change of -100 tons from the previous trading day [3]

石油沥青日报 | 2025-05-07 成本端支撑转弱，沥青短期市场压力有限 市场分析 1、5月7日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2506合约下午收盘价3361元/吨，较昨日结算价下跌45元/吨，跌幅 1.32%；持仓113918手，环比上涨984手，成交194405手，环比下降23855手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3700—4086元/吨；山东，3410—3600元/吨；华南，3320—3430元/吨； 华东，3500—3570元/吨。 昨日东北、华北、山东以及川渝地区沥青现货价格均出现下跌，华南地区沥青现货价格小幅上涨，其余地区沥青 现货价格大体企稳。假期期间原油价格下移，带动节后盘面走低，沥青现货市场交投氛围平淡。就沥青自身基本 面而言，供需两弱格局延续，市场缺乏明显驱动，油价反复波动，盘面或继续受到宏观情绪与原油端影响。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 原油价格大幅波动、宏观风险、海外原料供应风险、沥青终端需求变动、装置开工负荷变动等 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 | 图1：山东重交沥青现货价格 | 单位：元 ...