Core Viewpoint - The World Gold Council predicts an upward trend in gold prices over the next 18 months, with a potential rise of 20% in 2024, leading to historical highs in the first half of 2025, driven by strong investment demand amid a weak dollar and geopolitical uncertainties [1][2] Group 1: Gold Price Forecast - Analysts expect gold prices to consolidate with a slight upward potential of 0%-5% in the second half of 2025, depending on macroeconomic conditions [1][4] - In a bullish scenario, gold could rise by 10%-15% in the second half of 2025, potentially ending the year with a nearly 40% increase [5] - Conversely, in a bearish scenario, gold prices could retract by 12%-17%, resulting in a lower double-digit or single-digit return for the year [6] Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The performance of gold in 2025 has been remarkable, with a nearly 26% increase in the first half, attributed to a weak dollar, anticipated interest rate cuts, and heightened geopolitical tensions [2][3] - Increased demand from OTC markets, exchanges, and ETFs has led to a record average daily trading volume of $329 billion in the first half of the year [2] - Central banks have continued to purchase gold at a strong pace, contributing to a 41% increase in total assets under management in gold ETFs, reaching $383 billion [2] Group 3: Economic and Geopolitical Context - The macroeconomic outlook suggests global GDP will remain below trend, with inflation rates potentially exceeding 5% in the second half of the year [4] - Geopolitical tensions are expected to remain high, contributing to a generally uncertain market environment [4][5] - The weak performance of the dollar, which has seen its worst annual start since 1973, has further enhanced gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2] Group 4: Investment Demand Dynamics - Investment demand is anticipated to significantly outpace consumer demand, especially in a risk-averse environment [5] - The current net long positions in COMEX futures indicate substantial room for further accumulation if market conditions worsen [6] - The potential for new institutional investors, such as Chinese insurance companies, could provide additional support for gold prices [7]

当前盘面来看，昨日日线录得一根带有上影线的中阳柱，本应属于遇阻信号，但随着3320的企稳，目前 短期均线再次跟随上移，于3330和3333构成支撑，其它各周期指标保持多头排列，加之macd指标双线 转向金叉形态，表现出充足的上扬势能，因此日线整体看来，可期多头冲击3352上方的压制区域。4小 时方面，经过昨日美盘的震荡巩固，可以确认黄金已经企稳3320，这点从美盘时段收取大阳也足以体 现，而除此之外，目前短期均线于3337构成支撑，其它各周期指标也呈现多头排列，不过布林带整体向 下开口，macd指标双线以死叉下扬形态，上行势能表现不充足，4小时级别整体看来下行空间有限，多 头仍具备反弹动能。 周四（7月17日）亚市早盘，现货黄金窄幅震荡，目前交投于3339附近。周三黄金市场经历了一场戏剧 性波动，美国议员声称美联储鲍威尔将被解雇，市场表现一度混乱，随后特朗普否认解雇计划，他 称"大概率不会解雇鲍威尔，除非证明存在欺诈行为"，这也暗示解雇鲍威尔是可行的，贵金属波动中上 扬。美国6月PPI和核心PPI均温和上涨，关税带来的影响暂不显著，这强化了美联储的降息预期，给贵 金属带来支撑。总体来看，短期市场受鲍威尔解雇传 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by geopolitical tensions, U.S. monetary policy uncertainty, and trade disputes, which have heightened market volatility and increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3][4]. Fundamental Analysis - The independence crisis of the Federal Reserve and President Trump's comments about possibly firing Powell have caused market turbulence, leading to a drop in the dollar index and a rise in gold prices [3]. - Market expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September have increased due to economic slowdown forecasts, which may favor gold prices [3]. - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for June remained flat month-on-month, easing concerns about immediate tightening of monetary policy, while year-on-year PPI showed an increase, indicating potential long-term inflation risks that could benefit gold [3]. - Geopolitical risks, particularly Israel's airstrikes in Syria, have intensified market risk aversion, boosting gold demand [3]. - Trade tensions, including Trump's threats of tariffs on EU imports and a unified tax rate on over 150 countries, have raised inflation and economic growth concerns, prompting investors to seek gold as a hedge [4]. Technical Analysis - Gold is currently within a triangular convergence range since reaching 3500, with recent volatility observed [5]. - Key support levels include the 5/30-day moving average around 3342 and the 10/20-day moving average near 3332/3330, with a critical support level at 3319 [7]. - Resistance levels to watch are the recent high of 3377 and the 3400 area, which has previously acted as a resistance zone [7]. - The four-hour chart indicates a complex structure, with key levels at 3282 and 3247 to monitor for potential downward breaks [9]. Upcoming Focus - Key economic data releases to watch include U.S. retail sales for June and initial jobless claims for the week ending July 12, which could impact market sentiment and gold prices [4].

Group 1: Economic and Market Conditions - Persistent economic uncertainty and a volatile global trade landscape have elevated investors' anxiety, providing strong tailwinds for gold [1] - Mounting U.S. debt concerns, unfavorable inflation data, and central banks' increasing purchases of gold have contributed to its sustained appeal [1] - Concerns over U.S. debt levels can add pressure to investor confidence, making investors risk-averse and increasing the demand for safe-haven assets [7] Group 2: Central Bank Activity - Central banks are increasingly focused on strengthening their gold reserves to guard against potential financial shocks amid rising global debt and geopolitical risks [5] - Approximately 95% of the 73 central banks surveyed expect their global counterparts to increase gold holdings over the coming year, highlighting gold's enduring appeal as a strategic asset [6] - A major driver of gold's strength is the growing appetite among emerging market central banks to increase their gold reserves [6] Group 3: Inflation and Safe-Haven Demand - Gold preserves its purchasing power across extended investment periods, outpacing inflation and diversifying an investment portfolio [3] - The Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in June, lifting the annual inflation rate to 2.7%, which has boosted gold's safe-haven status [4] - Analysts expect gold prices to benefit from soaring U.S. deficits and growing fiscal instability, even in the absence of an immediate crisis [8] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Investors should adopt a "buy-the-dip" strategy for gold, as it remains an essential hedge amid increasing macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical volatility [2] - A long-term passive investment strategy is recommended to weather short-term market storms, especially given the current economic and geopolitical climate [10] - Increasing exposure to gold ETFs is suggested as a smarter play than attempting to time the market [11] Group 5: Gold ETFs - Investors can consider various gold ETFs such as SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), iShares Gold Trust (IAU), and others to enhance their exposure to gold [12] - GLD has an asset base of $102.12 billion, making it the largest among the options, and has gained 15.5% over the past three months and about 39.2% over the past year [13] - GLDM is noted as the cheapest option for long-term investing, charging an annual fee of 0.10% [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - OPEC indicates that global economic performance in the second half of the year may exceed expectations despite trade conflicts, and refineries' high crude oil absorption to meet increased summer travel will support demand. However, API inventory accumulation and weakened expectations of sanctions on Russian oil are suppressing oil prices. Short - term oil prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of 515 - 525, and long - term investment should be on hold [3]. - Short - term geopolitical conflicts drive up oil prices, while mid - to long - term prices await the summer demand peak season [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: OPEC's view supports demand, but potential sanctions on Russian oil may change the market. The relationship between countries' purchase of Russian oil and export to the US needs to be balanced [3]. - **Basis**: On July 15, the basis was 0.37 yuan/barrel, with the spot at par with the futures, indicating a neutral situation [3]. - **Inventory**: US API and EIA inventories increased more than expected, and Cushing region inventory also rose, while Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged, showing a bearish trend [3]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is near the average, suggesting a bearish outlook [3]. - **Main Position**: As of July 8, WTI crude oil main position long orders decreased, and Brent crude oil main position long orders increased, presenting a neutral situation [3]. - **Expectation**: Short - term oil prices will fluctuate between 515 - 525, and long - term investment should be on hold [3]. 3.2 Recent News - **Trade News**: The US will impose a 19% tariff on Indonesian goods, and the EU may impose tariffs on $84.1 billion worth of US goods if trade talks with the US fail [5]. - **Nuclear Agreement News**: The US and European countries set the end of August as the de - facto deadline for reaching a nuclear agreement with Iran. If the agreement is not reached, the "rapid re - imposition of sanctions" mechanism will be activated, but Iran opposes it [5]. - **Ukraine Conflict News**: Putin ignores Trump's threat of sanctions and plans to continue the war in Ukraine until Western countries accept his peace terms, and his territorial demands may expand [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: Intensified Russia - Ukraine conflict [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: Three - month consecutive production increase by OPEC+, tense trade relations between the US and other economies, and cease - fire between Iran and Israel [6]. - **Market Driver**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts drive up prices, and mid - to long - term prices await the summer demand peak season [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Quotes**: The settlement prices of Brent crude, WTI crude, SC crude, and Oman crude all decreased, with declines of 0.72%, 0.69%, 0.15%, and 3.09% respectively [7]. - **Spot Quotes**: The prices of various types of crude oil in the spot market also decreased, with declines ranging from 0.69% to 3.15% [9]. - **Inventory Data**: API and EIA inventories showed an overall increasing trend in recent weeks [10][14]. 3.5 Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position**: As of July 8, the net long position was 209,374, a decrease of 25,319 compared to July 1 [17]. - **Brent Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position**: As of July 8, the net long position was 222,347, an increase of 55,630 compared to July 1 [20].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the resilience of the Chinese yuan (RMB) against the backdrop of a complex international environment, highlighting the positive trends in China's economy and the implementation of proactive macroeconomic policies to maintain stability in the RMB exchange rate [1][5]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Trends - In the first half of 2025, the RMB appreciated nearly 2% against the USD compared to the end of the previous year, while the USD index fell over 10%, marking its worst performance since 1973 [2]. - The RMB exchange rate showed strong resilience, with a 0.65% appreciation in the first quarter, supported by effective policy measures and a stable domestic economy [2][4]. - The second quarter saw the RMB experience fluctuations due to US-China trade tensions, with the exchange rate initially depreciating before recovering to below 7.2 [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - In the first five months of the year, fixed asset investment grew by 3.7%, retail sales increased by 5%, and exports rose by 7.2%, indicating a positive economic performance that supports the RMB [5]. - The international balance of payments remained stable, with a surplus of $101.9 billion in foreign exchange payments, reflecting foreign investors' confidence in RMB assets [9]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The RMB is expected to experience fluctuations in the second half of the year, influenced by ongoing US-China trade negotiations and the potential for US economic weakening [5][6]. - The US economic slowdown and the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts are anticipated to exert downward pressure on the USD, contributing to a dual-directional fluctuation of the RMB [7][8]. - Geopolitical risks and uncertainties in international trade negotiations may lead to temporary shocks in the RMB exchange rate, necessitating close monitoring of the situation [9].

Group 1 - The North American shipping rates have shown a slight rebound after four weeks of decline, with the rate from Shanghai to the West Coast reaching $2,194/FEU, a 5.0% increase from the previous period, but still down 60% from the peak on June 6 [1] - The ongoing "tariff war" has become a focal point in the market, with the U.S. extending the delay on "reciprocal tariffs" until August 1, and imposing new tariffs on multiple countries, including a 50% tariff on copper [1] - The overall demand for shipping is weakening, and the oversupply of capacity on trans-Pacific routes is driving rates down, with shipping companies expected to cut capacity by 25% in August [2][3] Group 2 - The shipping rates for the U.S. West Coast have dropped significantly, with some smaller players quoting as low as $1,400/FEU, while the majority of shipping alliances maintain rates around $1,700 to $1,800/FEU [3] - The first half of the year saw a 9.3% year-on-year decline in China's total import and export value with the U.S., with a 20.8% drop in the second quarter due to the "reciprocal tariffs" [2] - The European shipping rates have seen a slight decline, with the rate from Shanghai to European ports dropping by 0.1% and 7.0% for Mediterranean ports, while the overall economic recovery in Europe remains stable [5][6] Group 3 - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has shown signs of easing, with Maersk resuming services at Haifa Port, while risks in the Red Sea region are increasing due to recent attacks on vessels [5] - The market for Asia-Europe shipping rates is expected to rise in the coming weeks due to operational inefficiencies and increased congestion at European ports [7] - The tariffs imposed by the U.S. on EU imports starting August 1 are likely to disrupt trade flows and strengthen cooperation between China and the EU [6]

消息人士：欧洲央行监管机构告知银行，要把对其他国家的直接和间接敞口视为地缘政治风险的一部 分。 ...

欧洲央行银行监管委员会主席布赫：在2026年的主题压力测试中，我们将要求银行评估哪些特定企业的 地缘政治风险情景可能会严重影响其偿付能力。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of England, Bailey, has indicated that there are increasing economic and geopolitical risks, alongside persistent global debt vulnerabilities [1] Group 1 - The emergence of more economic risks has been noted, suggesting a potential impact on market stability [1] - Geopolitical risks are also becoming more pronounced, which could affect global economic conditions [1] - The level of global debt vulnerability remains high, indicating ongoing concerns regarding financial stability [1]