Group 1: Economic Overview - The global economic landscape is marked by significant central bank activities, with major central banks, including the Bank of England, releasing financial stability reports and engaging in monetary policy discussions [1][7] - The U.S. stock market showed positive momentum, with the Dow Jones increasing by 2.30%, the Nasdaq by 1.48%, and the S&P 500 by 1.72% over the past week [1] - The upcoming week will see key economic indicators released, including the NFIB small business optimism index and initial jobless claims data, amidst ongoing scrutiny of U.S. Treasury auctions [4] Group 2: Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes are anticipated to provide insights into future interest rate cuts, with the current federal funds rate maintained at 4.25% to 4.50% [3] - Market expectations for a July rate cut are low, with only a 4% probability, suggesting that any potential cuts may be delayed until October [3] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policies, particularly related to tariffs, continues to influence the Fed's policy outlook [3] Group 3: Commodity Market Trends - International oil prices have stabilized, with WTI crude oil rising by 1.43% to $66.45 per barrel and Brent crude oil increasing by 2.22% to $68.28 per barrel [6] - OPEC+ has decided to increase oil production by nearly 550,000 barrels per day starting in August, which may impact global oil supply dynamics [6] - Gold prices have risen by 2.05% to $3,335.24 per ounce, driven by a decline in the U.S. dollar index and increased demand for safe-haven assets due to trade uncertainties [6] Group 4: UK Economic Developments - The Bank of England is set to release its Financial Stability Report, with concerns about the labor market and potential risks to the UK economy highlighted by committee members [7] - The UK Office for Budget Responsibility will publish a report focusing on fiscal risks, particularly regarding climate change and public finances [7] - Key economic data releases for the UK include GDP and industrial output figures, following a contraction of 0.3% in April [8]

Core Viewpoint - The best decision-making approach is to lower interest rates first and then maintain them for a longer period, rather than remaining inactive and having to implement larger cuts later [1] Group 1 - The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Taylor suggests that an initial rate cut followed by a stable period is preferable [1] - The aim is to achieve a lower neutral interest rate by 2026-27 [1]

英国央行泰勒：与其按兵不动然后不得不更大幅度地降息，不如先行降息然后保持利率不变。 ...

经济学家在美国6月非农就业报告发布后表示，美联储可能于9月重启降息，但对央行决策者而言，这也 并非易事。 Nationwide Financial首席经济学家凯西·博斯蒂亚尼奇（Kathy Bostjancic）称，未来两个月将有大量数据 影响美联储决策，若当前趋势持续，美联储应该能在9月实施宽松政策。 AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 这概括了美联储当前的两难处境：鉴于劳动力市场可能出现放缓迹象，降息合乎情理，但官员们也意识 到，任何降息都可能助长通胀。 当前美联储基准利率处于4.25%-4.5%区间，鲍威尔称该利率水平仍在抑制需求，而"中性"利率约在3% 左右。 更复杂的是，美联储内部对下一步行动分歧严重。赫特指出，包括特朗普任命的理事沃勒和鲍曼在内的 阵营急于降息，而其他官员则更担忧通胀，他们认为消费者可能逐渐将物价上涨视为常态，这只会给通 胀火上浇油。 博斯蒂亚尼奇认为美联储将在9月、10月、12月分别降息25个基点，但鲍威尔可能通过"不过度承诺"来 平衡各方：即支持9月降息并强调这并非进一步宽松的信号，若通胀恶化则暂停行动。 并非所有经济学家都认同9月降息。德意志银行首席美国 ...

Global Macro - The strong non-farm payroll data for June shows an increase of 147,000 jobs, exceeding market expectations of 110,000, and the previous value was revised up from 139,000 to 144,000 [1] - The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3% and the previous value of 4.2% [1] - Average hourly wage growth year-on-year decreased to 3.7%, slightly below the expected 3.9%, with a month-on-month increase slowing to 0.2% [1] - The strong employment data supports the Federal Reserve's wait-and-see stance, providing more policy space amid ongoing pressure for rate cuts [1][3] - Following the release of the employment data, market expectations for rate cuts diminished, with the probability of a July cut dropping from 26.7% to 4.3% and the September cut probability slightly decreasing from 69.1% to 62.4% [1] Employment Analysis - The ADP report earlier indicated a decline of 33,000 jobs, highlighting a key difference as it only accounts for private sector employment, excluding government jobs [2] - Government sector added 73,000 jobs, contributing half of the non-farm employment increase, primarily from state and local governments, while federal employment decreased by 7,000 [2] - Private sector job growth slowed significantly to 74,000, down from 137,000 in May, with most growth in lower-skilled sectors such as education and healthcare [2][3] - The labor force participation rate has declined for three consecutive months, contributing to the unexpected drop in the unemployment rate, which fell from 4.2% to 4.1% [3] - The decrease in labor supply due to reduced immigration and government layoffs has led to a tighter labor market, particularly affecting low-skilled labor supply [3] Federal Reserve Outlook - The unexpected strong non-farm data significantly reduces the urgency for rate cuts in the short term, with July lacking sufficient justification for a cut [4] - Future rate cuts may depend on inflation data, with the next potential window for a cut possibly in the fourth quarter as tariff-related inflation effects dissipate [4] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a patient approach in assessing data changes, avoiding aggressive policy adjustments in a high uncertainty environment [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent U.S. employment data, highlighting its implications for the economy and market sentiment, particularly regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and the potential for market volatility. Employment Data Analysis - The June non-farm payrolls showed a surprising increase of 147,000 jobs, exceeding the expectation of 110,000, indicating strong resilience in the labor market [6][10] - The unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped from 4.2% to 4.1%, breaking the market expectation of 4.3% [13] - State and local government hiring was a significant contributor to the job growth, with an increase of 48,000 jobs [10] Market Reactions - Following the employment data release, U.S. stock indices like the S&P 500 and NASDAQ reached new highs, while the dollar stabilized [8] - The market's confidence was reflected in the continued rise of stock prices despite a decrease in interest rate expectations [8][6] Federal Reserve's Position - The employment data provides a relatively comforting signal for the Federal Reserve, reducing the urgency for intervention in the labor market [6] - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have been adjusted, with the anticipated number of cuts for the year reduced to two [6] Wage and Hour Growth - Average hourly earnings increased by only 0.2% month-over-month, below the expected 0.3%, indicating a slowdown in wage growth [20] - The average workweek for private non-farm employees slightly decreased by 0.1 hours to 34.2 hours, suggesting potential recruitment demand risks [20] Sector-Specific Insights - Private sector employment saw a surprising decline of 63,000 jobs, primarily due to a slowdown in service sector demand [17] - Manufacturing employment continued to face challenges, with negative growth persisting due to tariff impacts and rising costs [17] Potential Risks - The article notes potential downward risks, including the impact of federal government layoffs and a decrease in private sector demand, which could affect future economic growth [15][17]

Group 1 - The Atlanta Fed President Bostic signals a prolonged period of high inflation in the U.S., suggesting that businesses may take a year or longer to adapt to changes in trade policies, which provides a basis for the Fed to delay interest rate cuts [1] - The June non-farm payroll data showed an increase of 147,000 jobs, significantly exceeding economists' expectations of 106,000, while the unemployment rate slightly decreased to 4.1% [3] - A structural analysis reveals that the public sector added 73,000 jobs in June, with state and local education contributing 64,000, while the private sector only added 74,000 jobs, indicating a disparity in the labor market [3] Group 2 - Bostic warns that current inflationary pressures differ from traditional models, driven by trade policy adjustments and geopolitical risks, leading to a steady and persistent upward trend in prices [3] - The market's expectations for a policy shift have been impacted, with the probability of maintaining interest rates in July exceeding 95%, and expectations for rate cuts in the year reduced from three to two [5] - The economic landscape is characterized by contradictions, with nominal wage growth at 5.1% supporting consumption, while real wages have experienced negative growth for four consecutive months, eroding purchasing power [5] Group 3 - The Fed's cautious stance reflects the difficulty in balancing policy amid resilient yet fragile economic data, as businesses exhaust their ability to avoid price increases and the long-term effects of trade policy adjustments remain unclear [8] - Market attention is shifting towards the fall, awaiting more signals on inflation trends and the labor market to determine if September could mark a turning point for interest rate cuts [8]

美国劳工统计局报告称，6 月份非农就业人数增加 147,000 人，超过预期的 111,000 人，美元周四触及 一周高点。此外，失业率从 5 月份的 4.2% 小幅下降至 4.1%，使美联储提前降息的希望破灭。 报告的其他细节显示，以平均时薪变化衡量的工资增长从 6 月份的 0.4% 放缓至 0.2%，并从 5 月份的 3.8% 回落至 3.7%。这有助于缓解对通胀的担忧，并为今年年底前至少两次降息 25 个基点敞开大门。 美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的减税和支出法案周四在国会扫清了最后的障碍。据无党派的国会预算办公室 称，该立法将使国家债务增加 3.4 万亿美元。这可能会进一步恶化美国的长期债务问题，从而限制美元 并支撑金价。 与此同时，特朗普表示，他计划最早在周五开始致函通知贸易伙伴他们的关税税率，因为避免美国提高 关税的谈判进入最后阶段。他的评论是在 7 月 9 日提高互惠关税的最后期限前几天发表的，并进一步成 为避险贵金属的顺风。 上海期货交易所指定交割仓库期货（7月4日）仓单日报显示，黄金期货总计21456千克，今日仓单较上 一日增持3000千克。 沪金主力盘内高位震荡偏弱，周五（7月4日）开盘报774 ...

今日现货黄金在盘中直线拉升，而A股冲高回落。 截至发稿，现货黄金涨超0.5%。 关税、降息大消息 消息面上，美国最新非农数据公布，利空"落地"，交易员放弃了对美联储7月降息的押注。 此外，美国单方面设定的7月9日这一同多国谈判的最后期限即将到来，不确定性增加。 据英国《金融时报》、美国"政治新闻网"欧洲版3日报道，欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩称，欧盟与美国在 最后期限前达成全面的贸易协议是"不可能的"。 冯德莱恩当地时间周四(3日)在丹麦的一场新闻发布会上称，由于欧盟与美国贸易的规模和复杂性，在 这段时间内达成详细协议是"不可能的"。欧盟希望在下周的最后期限前与美国达成一项粗略的"原则性 的贸易协议"，该协议与此前英国与美国达成的协议类似。欧盟委员会贸易和经济安全委员谢夫乔维奇 目前正在美国就该协议进行谈判。目前，美国对欧盟钢铝产品征收50%关税，对汽车领域征收25%关 税，对几乎所有其他商品征收10%基准关税。美国总统特朗普还威胁称，如果7月9日前美欧贸易谈判没 有取得突破，他将对欧盟商品征收50%关税。作为回应，欧盟曾决定对美国总额210亿欧元的进口产品 加征至多50%的关税。 A股冲高回落 午后A股方面，截至 ...

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 光大期货金融期货日报 光大期货金融期货日报（2025 年 07 月 04 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 美联储主席近日接受国会质询，表示将依据 6 至 7 月数据决定降息路径，同 | | | | 时点阵图也显示美联储内部对于降息意见分歧加大，这都使得市场开始提前 | | | | 计价降息，纳斯达克逼近历史高位。A 股同样受到提振，连续两日上涨，但 | | | A | 股估值目前处于历史均值以上水平，很难连续大幅冲高。此外，稳定币概 | | | | 念近期火爆，稳定币对于跨境交易结算具有较高的便利性，同时也可用作新 | | | | 型储备货币，对于一个国家的金融市场高水平对外开放意义非凡。在 A 股市 | | | 股指 | 场缺乏热点题材的当下，确实可以作为资金重点流入的对象。但是，稳定币 | 震荡 | | | 作为交易媒介取代美元的道路仍较为遥远，市场不宜过分追高。国内基本面 | | | | 上，6 月制造业 PMI 录得 49.7，环比上涨，但仍处于收缩区间；5 ...