Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin price has fallen below the critical psychological level of $90,000 for the first time in seven months, driven by a sharp shift in macro liquidity expectations and uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook [2][3] Market Dynamics - As of the latest report, Bitcoin is trading at $89,777.1, down 5.45% [3] - The decline in Bitcoin's price is attributed to a decrease in the probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, leading investors to systematically withdraw from high-risk assets [3] - Morgan Stanley's recent research indicates that if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) does not change its stance in December, the tightening of dollar liquidity will directly suppress the performance of non-yielding assets, including Bitcoin [3] Liquidity and Market Sentiment - Shiliang Tang from Monarq Asset Management notes that the weakening of rate cut expectations has altered funding cost expectations, resulting in a decline in the crypto market after losing the $100,000 threshold, which is seen as a natural outcome of the liquidity premium dissipating [3] - Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, warns that the drop in Bitcoin from $125,000 to the $90,000 range, while the stock market remains at historical highs, suggests that a "credit event is brewing" [3][4] Potential Price Movements - Hayes further indicates that the dollar liquidity index has weakened significantly since July, and if market conditions worsen, the Federal Reserve or other institutions may be forced to accelerate "money printing" to stabilize the situation, potentially leading Bitcoin to fall back to the $80,000 to $85,000 range [4] - Market analyst Damian Chmiel suggests that if Bitcoin continues to trade below $100,000, it could trigger a more severe sell-off, with the next target being the April low of approximately $74,000, indicating about a 30% potential downside from current levels [4] Long-term Outlook - Despite recent market turmoil, Tom Lee from Fundstrat maintains a bullish outlook, predicting that Bitcoin could soar to between $150,000 and $200,000 by the end of 2025, citing that the market has recently experienced a historic liquidation event larger than the FTX collapse, which has not shaken his long-term confidence [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report - Today, precious metals rebounded from a low level, with the main Shanghai gold contract closing up 1.09% and the main Shanghai silver contract closing up 2.19%. The short - term outlook for precious metals is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish, with a mid - term high - level consolidation and a long - term step - up trend. The core logic includes short - term risk aversion due to geopolitical risks and changes in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, and the influence of factors from risk - aversion, monetary, and commodity attributes [3]. - The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price. In terms of the capital side, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF increased slightly, and the recent visible inventory of silver decreased slightly [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Gold - **Price Performance**: The main Shanghai gold contract closed up 2.19%, and international and domestic gold prices showed different changes compared to the previous day and week. For example, the Comex gold主力合约收盘价 was $4067.40 per ounce, up $22.30 (0.55%) from the previous day and down $65.80 (-1.59%) from the previous week [3][4]. - **Core Logic**: Short - term risk aversion: The outcome of the China - US talks was priced in, but geopolitical risks remained. The US employment weakened and inflation was moderate, and Fed officials were hawkish, leading to a callback in interest - rate cut expectations. Risk - aversion attribute: There were still geopolitical risks in regions such as Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East. Monetary attribute: The number of continued unemployment claims in the US soared, and builder confidence was low. More Fed policymakers were cautious about a December interest - rate cut. The US government ended the shutdown, and the market awaited more economic data. Commodity attribute: The CRB commodity index was volatile and weak, and the depreciation of the RMB was beneficial to domestic prices [3]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [4]. 2. Silver - **Price Performance**: The main Shanghai silver contract closed up 2.19%, and international and domestic silver prices also had different changes compared to the previous day and week. For example, the Comex silver主力合约收盘价 was $50.54 per ounce, up $0.49 (0.98%) from the previous day and down $0.54 (-1.05%) from the previous week [3][8]. - **Core Logic**: The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price. On the capital side, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF increased slightly, and the recent visible inventory of silver decreased slightly [7]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [8]. 3. Fundamental Key Data - **Monetary Attribute Data**: The federal funds target rate upper limit and the discount rate were both 4.00%, down 0.25 percentage points. The Fed's total assets were $66310.98 billion, up $74.55 billion (0.00%). Other data such as M2 growth rate, ten - year US Treasury real yield, and various interest - rate spreads also showed different changes [10][12]. - **Risk - Aversion Attribute Data**: The geopolitical risk index was 90.76, up 6.72 (7.99%), and the VIX index was 24.69, up 2.31 (10.32%) [14]. - **Commodity Attribute Data**: The CRB commodity index was 303.36, up 1.72 (0.57%), and the offshore RMB exchange rate was 7.1106 [14].

Core Viewpoint - Domestic gold prices have stopped declining and are now rising, with increases of 6-7 yuan per gram across various brands, indicating a positive trend in the gold market [1][4]. Price Summary - The gold prices for major brands on November 19, 2025, are as follows: - Chow Sang Sang: 1296 yuan/gram, up 7 yuan - Liufu: 1293 yuan/gram, up 7 yuan - Chow Tai Fook: 1295 yuan/gram, up 7 yuan - Lao Miao: 1291 yuan/gram, up 6 yuan - Shanghai China Gold: 1210 yuan/gram, unchanged [1][3][4]. Recovery Price Overview - The gold recovery prices have increased significantly, with a rise of 16.4 yuan/gram. The recovery prices for various brands are: - Cai Bai: 925.20 yuan/gram - Chow Sang Sang: 928.20 yuan/gram - Chow Tai Fook: 926.80 yuan/gram - Lao Feng Xiang: 935.70 yuan/gram [4]. International Gold Price Trends - The spot gold price experienced fluctuations, initially dropping below $4000 per ounce but rebounding to close at $4066.50, reflecting a 0.54% increase. As of the latest update, the price is reported at $4091.70 per ounce, with a 0.62% increase [6]. - Recent U.S. economic data, including a decrease in weekly job positions and rising unemployment claims, has influenced market expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, currently estimated at 48.9% for December [6].

来源：金老虎首席分析师 金老虎：就业数据助推降息预期，黄金探底回升，金价回踩4040延续多 若想追逐独属于自己的光芒，就得扛住质疑和流言。真正活得耀眼的人，从不会困在别人的期待里。如 果总怕摔跤就停下脚步，那永远只能困在原地，沦为平庸的大多数。别让无关人的评价，绑架你的人生 选择。与众不同从来不是错，敢于走自己的路才是真的清醒。别人的看法只是过眼云烟，你的感受、你 的方向、你的未来，从来都只属于你自己。日子是过给自己看的，不是演给别人看的，记住了！ 黄金行情分析 简单回顾下昨天波动形态，昨天金价整体走了探底回升的行情，价格在拉低3997后形成快速反弹，价格 在停盘阶段最高也是反弹到了4082的位置 ，昨天金价走出这样的行情主要有那些，简单梳理下； 今天黄金策略预测 1：黄金价格承压下行是美联储降息预期的显著降温，多位美联储核心官员密集释放鹰派信号，包括副 主席杰斐逊强调进一步降息需 "缓慢进行"、堪萨斯城联储主席施密德指出当前偏紧的政策水平适当、 达拉斯联储主席洛根明确反对 12 月降息等，一致暗示短期内降息的可能性大幅降低。市场消化这个信 号，让美联储 12 月降息 25 个基点的概率已从前期的 70% 左 ...

来源：北京时间 当地时间１８号，由于投资者担忧人工智能可能估值过高，导致大型科技股走势承压，纽约股市当天继 续下跌，其中，标准普尔５００种股票指数连续第四个交易日下跌。与此同时，随着风险偏好波动，现 货金价一度有所回升。 截至１８号收盘，道琼斯工业平均指数比前一交易日下跌１.０７％；标准普尔５００种股票指数跌幅 为０.８３％，连续第四个交易日下跌，创下近三个月来最长连跌纪录；纳斯达克综合指数跌幅为１.２ １％。 编辑：马超然 责编：李光军 与此同时，随着市场风险偏好发生波动，现货金价当天一度回升０.４％至每盎司４０７２.３７美元， 小幅扭转此前持续数日的跌势。 来源：环球国际视频通讯社 据路透社分析，美国股市正面临数月来最大幅度的回调，原因是此前支撑市场破纪录上涨的两大因素 ——人工智能交易和美联储降息预期正面临考验。近期，市场对人工智能领域可能存在泡沫的迹象产生 警惕，高估值的大型科技股首当其冲地受到疲软影响。另外，美国经济状况以及美联储１２月降息的不 确定性也影响了市场情绪。不过，值得一提的是，追踪在美上市中国公司表现的纳斯达克中国金龙指数 当天逆势收涨０.４２％。 目前，标准普尔５００种股票指数较１０月 ...

今日周三（11月19日）亚盘时段，纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2025年12月黄金期价，于 18日实现显著上涨。当日，该合约价格攀升22.3美元，最终收于每盎司4067.4美元，涨幅达0.55%。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 据高盛集团和彭博社披露的消息，中国9月份黄金储备增加了约15吨。在此之前，各国央行在经历了夏 季的季节性低迷期后，纷纷加快了黄金购买的步伐。有分析人士预估，全球央行在9月份总共购入了64 吨黄金，相较于上月增长了两倍有余。高盛更是指出，这股黄金购买热潮有望在11月份持续下去。 继17日美国股市指数大幅下挫之后，当日全球股市也掀起了一股抛售潮。尽管在过去的几个交易日里， 黄金市场对动荡不安的全球股市反应较为平淡，但随着股市抛售压力的不断增大，很可能会促使投资者 更加踊跃地买入贵金属。 【最新黄金期货行情解析】 今日沪金期货需重点关注的关键阻力位区间为1001元/克至1020元/克，而重要支撑位区间则位于894元/ 克至950元/克。 在技术分析层面，12月黄金期货呈现出多空双方明确的博弈态势。多头正蓄势待发，其下一个攻坚目标 便是强势突破每盎司4398美元这一历史高位，以此 ...

Group 1 - Gold prices continued to decline in early trading on November 18, with a slight rebound due to rising risk aversion and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, closing at $4067.40 per ounce, down 0.17% [1] - The ADP weekly employment data indicated an average weekly decrease of 2500 jobs in the U.S. private sector for the four weeks ending November 1 [1] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending October 18 were reported at 232,000, with continuing claims slightly rising to 1.957 million, indicating a softening labor market and increasing expectations for a rate cut in December [1] Group 2 - The high levels of initial and continuing jobless claims, along with the prolonged government shutdown, are raising concerns about the downward risks in the labor market [1] - The U.S. stock market continues to show weakness, while U.S. Treasury bonds have strengthened slightly, with attention on upcoming GDP and non-farm payroll data [1] - The long-term bullish trend for precious metals remains intact, as factors like excessive debt issuance and de-globalization continue to drive down the credibility of the U.S. dollar, making gold a preferred asset for hedging against dollar credit risk [1]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-19 关注铝价超预期回调后的机会 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价21460元/吨，较上一交易日变化-170元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-30元/吨， 较上一交易日变化-30元/吨；中原A00铝价21340元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-10元/吨至-150元/吨； 佛山A00铝价录21320元/吨，较上一交易日变化-160元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-15元/吨至-165元/ 吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-11-18SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2840元/吨，山东价格录得2775元/吨，河南价格录得 2865元/吨，广西价格录得2910元/吨，贵州价格录得2935元/吨，澳洲氧化铝FOB价格录得320美元/吨。 氧化铝期货方面：2025-11-18氧化铝主力合约开于2817元/吨，收于2780元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价变化-20 元/吨，变化幅度-0.71%，最高价达到2822元/吨，最低价为2775元/吨。全天交易日成交264359手，全天交易日 持仓405010手。 铝合金价格方面：2025-11-18保太民用生铝采购价格16700元/吨， ...

Report Title - The report is titled "Shanghai Copper Daily Report 20251119: Slightly Rising Expectations of Fed Rate Cuts Support Copper Prices" [2] Report Core View - Overseas copper mines face production disruptions, but the slightly increased probability of a Fed rate cut in December due to weak US employment performance may lead to a sideways consolidation of Shanghai copper prices [3] Data Summary Shanghai Copper Futures - On November 18, 2025, the closing price of the active Shanghai copper futures contract was 86,450, a decrease of 800 from the previous day; the trading volume was 101,029 lots, an increase of 2,940 lots; the open interest was 179,927 lots, a decrease of 15,531 lots; the inventory was 56,965 tons, an increase of 3,909 tons [3] - The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 86,510, a decrease of 505; the average discount of SMM flat - water copper was 65, an increase of 35; the average premium of SMM premium copper was 165, an increase of 45 [3] - The average discount of SMM wet - process copper was - 55, a decrease of 60; the average premium of SMM Guixi copper was 205, an increase of 70; the average discount of EQ copper was - 100, a decrease of 70 [3] - The average SMM RMB Yangshan copper premium was 279.72, an increase of 0.17; the average SMM Yangshan copper premium (warehouse receipt) was 32, unchanged; the average SMM Yangshan copper premium (bill of lading) was 47, unchanged [3] - The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract of Shanghai copper was - 120, a decrease of 110; the spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous contract was 0, unchanged; the spread between the second - continuous and the third - continuous contract was 40, an increase of 60 [3] London Copper - On November 18, 2025, the closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 10,766.5, a decrease of 68.5; the total registered and cancelled warehouse receipt inventory was 140,500 tons [3] - The spread between the LME copper futures 0 - 3 month contracts was - 32.62, a decrease of 32.62; the spread between the LME copper futures 3 - 15 month contracts was 110.75, an increase of 110.75 [3] - The ratio of Shanghai - London copper prices was 8.0295, an increase of 0.02 [3] COMEX Copper - On November 18, 2025, the closing price of the active COMEX copper futures contract was 5.05, a decrease of 0.08; the total inventory was 381,296 tons, an increase of 7,992 tons [3] Supply, Demand, and Inventory Situation Supply - There are disruptions in the production of multiple copper mines at home and abroad, resulting in a continuous negative China copper concentrate import index, leading to a tight domestic copper concentrate supply - demand expectation. The supply of scrap copper has increased, and the processing fees for domestic blister copper or anode plates have risen. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in January decreased month - on - month [3] Demand - The capacity utilization rates of refined copper rods, copper wires and cables, copper plate strips, copper tubes, and brass rods increased compared to last week, while the capacity utilization rate of recycled copper rods decreased. The weakening of copper prices led to an increase in new downstream orders [3] Inventory - The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic copper increased compared to last week; the inventory of electrolytic copper on the London Metal Exchange decreased compared to last week, and the inventory of COMEX copper increased compared to last week [3] Trading Strategy - Hold previous short positions cautiously or stop losses at low prices. Pay attention to the support level around 82,000 - 84,000 and the resistance level around 88,000 - 90,000 for Shanghai copper; the support level around 10,300 - 10,500 and the resistance level around 11,000 - 11,500 for London copper; the support level around 4.5 - 4.8 and the resistance level around 5.2 - 5.5 for US copper [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas risk appetite is continuously contracting, and the domestic stock and bond markets are both weak. There is a risk of a phased correction in the A - share market, and the bond market is likely to maintain a relatively strong and volatile pattern in the short term [2][3]. - The resumption of US official data may intensify short - term fluctuations in precious metals prices, and attention should be paid to the Fed's meeting minutes and non - farm payrolls report [4][5]. - There are risks in the artificial intelligence bubble, and copper prices will continue to adjust. Aluminum prices are expected to continue to adjust, and alumina will maintain a weak and volatile state [6][7][8]. - Cast aluminum prices will follow the market for a correction with limited amplitude. Zinc prices have support below, and lead price declines will slow down. Tin prices will oscillate in the short term and have room for growth in the long term [11][12][13]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to enter a weak and volatile phase. Lithium carbonate prices will fluctuate widely, and nickel prices will be in a weak and volatile state [15][16][17]. - The prices of soda ash and glass will oscillate at a low level. Steel prices will oscillate, and iron ore prices will mainly oscillate. Coking coal and coke prices will oscillate weakly [21][22][23]. - Bean and rapeseed meal prices will oscillate, and palm oil prices will oscillate and strengthen in the short term [27][28][29]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: US employment data is weak, risk appetite is contracting, the US dollar index is oscillating strongly, US bond yields are falling, US stocks are generally down, and gold and oil prices are rising while copper prices are falling. Attention should be paid to non - farm payrolls data and technology sector earnings reports this week [2]. - Domestic: The A - share market has fallen for three consecutive days, the two - market trading volume remains above 1.9 trillion yuan, and small - cap stocks have adjusted more significantly. The margin balance has cooled down, and there is a risk of a phased correction. The bond market is also weak, and the long - term interest rate has risen slightly, maintaining a volatile pattern [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - On Tuesday, international precious metal futures prices first declined and then rose. The latest US employment data is weak, which boosts the expectation of interest rate cuts. The resumption of official data may intensify short - term price fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the Fed's meeting minutes and non - farm payrolls report [4][5]. 3.3 Copper - On Tuesday, Shanghai copper and LME copper both adjusted downward. There are risks in the artificial intelligence bubble. More Fed officials are questioning the December interest rate cut. With the end of the government shutdown, attention should be paid to unemployment claims and CPI data. Copper prices are expected to maintain a high - level decline in the short term [6][7]. 3.4 Aluminum - On Tuesday, Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum prices both fell. The US initial jobless claims reached a two - month high, and the Fed's interest rate cut expectation has slightly increased. The market is waiting for more key data. Aluminum prices are expected to continue to adjust [8]. 3.5 Alumina - On Tuesday, the alumina futures price fell. The spot price has declined, and the expectation of production cuts has increased. However, there is still an oversupply in reality, and it will maintain a low - level and volatile state [9][10]. 3.6 Cast Aluminum - On Tuesday, the cast aluminum alloy futures price fell. The cost side has support, the supply has little change, the demand is stable, and the price will follow the market for a correction with limited amplitude [11]. 3.7 Zinc - On Tuesday, Shanghai zinc and LME zinc showed different trends. The US employment data is poor, the Fed's interest rate cut expectation has slightly increased, and the market is waiting for NVIDIA's earnings report. Zinc prices have support below, and the short - term price trend depends on the macro situation [12]. 3.8 Lead - On Tuesday, Shanghai lead and LME lead both showed a weak trend. Affected by the Fed's interest rate cut expectation and LME inventory accumulation, lead prices have support from the cost side and slow inventory accumulation, and the decline will slow down [13]. 3.9 Tin - On Tuesday, Shanghai tin and LME tin oscillated. The US dollar is strong, and the market is waiting for more macro guidance. There are concerns about the supply side, and the demand is strong. Tin prices will oscillate in the short term and have room for growth in the long term [14]. 3.10 Industrial Silicon - On Tuesday, industrial silicon oscillated narrowly. The supply side has a marginal convergence, the demand side is weak, and the price is expected to enter a weak and volatile phase [15][16]. 3.11 Lithium Carbonate - On Tuesday, lithium carbonate prices oscillated downward, and the spot price rose. The futures market has strong selling pressure, and the spot trading is poor. With the arrival of imported resources, the supply shortage may be alleviated, and the price will fluctuate widely [17][18]. 3.12 Nickel - On Tuesday, nickel prices were weak. The terminal demand is low, the inventory is at an absolute high, and the price is expected to be in a weak and volatile state. Attention should be paid to changes in upstream supply [19][20]. 3.13 Soda Ash and Glass - On Tuesday, the prices of soda ash and glass futures both oscillated weakly. The downstream demand is not improving, and the prices will oscillate at a low level [21][22]. 3.14 Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Tuesday, steel futures oscillated. The spot market trading and prices are stable, the supply pressure has decreased after steel mill production cuts, but the demand is still weak, and steel prices will oscillate [23][24]. 3.15 Iron Ore - On Tuesday, iron ore futures oscillated. The port inventory has slightly decreased, the supply is still high, the demand has a short - term rebound but the medium - term reduction expectation remains unchanged, and the price will mainly oscillate [25]. 3.16 Coking Coal and Coke (Double - Coking) - On Tuesday, coking coal and coke futures oscillated weakly. The coal mine production has increased, the coke price increase has limited improvement in coking enterprise losses, and the downstream demand is expected to weaken. The price will oscillate weakly [26]. 3.17 Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Tuesday, bean and rapeseed meal futures fell. China has purchased 792,000 tons of US soybeans. The US soybean harvest is nearing completion, and the Brazilian soybean sowing progress is over 90%. The supply is loose, and the price will oscillate [27][28]. 3.18 Palm Oil - On Tuesday, palm oil futures rose. The US biodiesel policy may exceed market expectations, and India's vegetable oil inventory is at a low level, with potential import demand. Palm oil prices will oscillate and strengthen in the short term [29][30].