智通财经APP获悉，纽约联邦储备银行周四发布的最新消费者预期调查显示，随着美国总统特朗普在4 月发动全球范围的贸易战，美国民众对当前及未来财务状况的看法明显恶化，收入增长预期下滑，就业 前景也转向悲观。 通胀预期的变动对美联储的决策至关重要。多数官员认为，公众对未来价格走势的预期会直接影响当前 的通胀水平。虽然包括密歇根大学在内的其他机构调查显示通胀预期上升明显，但纽约联储的数据并未 显示出类似的急剧攀升。 近几周，多位美联储官员接连发声，强调当前维稳通胀预期至关重要，以应对特朗普政策带来的不确定 性和潜在风险。面对贸易战和关税冲击，美国经济虽未陷入衰退，但民众情绪的转弱已为政策制定者敲 响警钟。 报告还指出，公众对未来房租、汽油和大学学费的价格上涨预期增强，对房价的年增长预期从3%升至 3.3%，显示出在多个领域通胀压力仍未消退。 这份调查结果发布之际，正值美联储在本周三决定维持短期利率目标不变。尽管美联储认为当前经 济"总体健康"，但特朗普政府推行的新一轮贸易关税政策对经济前景造成了冲击。许多经济学家预期， 关税政策将推动通胀和失业率上升，同时抑制原本可能更强劲的经济增长。 美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在政策 ...

据湖南日报援引塔斯社近期报道，俄罗斯外交部副部长安德烈·鲁登科表示，中国需要多少石油，俄罗斯就准备向中国输送多少石油。对于如 果美国对华石油供应降为零，中国会否购买更多俄罗斯石油的问题，鲁登科答复说："我认为，中国的行动首先将基于自身的国家利益。如果 国家利益要求购买石油，中国当然会这样做，这是我们中国朋友的选择。" 贸易（资料图） 最近这段时间，中美之间的关税战吸引了舆论的目光。当特朗普对华关税征收到145%之后，中国不仅没有给美国打电话，反而也相应提高了 对美关税，除此之外，中方还修改了半导体产品的溯源规则，这一系列操作下来，让美国彻底赌输了。所以，我们看到美国政府一边对半导体 产品豁免对等关税的同时，一边又开始扩大战场，对中国进行新的威胁。这两天，美方传出了两个消息。第一个，就是他们正在评估让中概股 退市的可能性；第二个，就是美国未来对华原油出口很可能会降为零。 自2024年以来，中美贸易战再度升级，关税战愈演愈烈。4月10日，美国将对华商品关税提高至145%，试图通过经济手段遏制中国发展，中国 随即反击，对美国输华商品征收同等税率的反制关税。这一轮较量直接冲击了美国原油的出口市场，据《参考消息》报道， ...

Core Insights - The Bank of Canada warns that U.S. policies are unpredictable in the short term, which may increase market volatility [1] - In extreme cases, volatility could lead to disruptions in market functionality [1] - Prolonged trade wars are expected to heighten the risk of debt defaults [1]

智通财经APP获悉，欧盟正计划对价值950亿欧元(1080亿美元)的美国出口商品加征关税，前提是与特朗普政府团队的贸易谈判未能取得令人满意的结果。 这项拟议的报复性措施将特别针对包括波音公司飞机、美国产汽车和波本威士忌在内的工业品——其中波本威士忌曾被从先前的清单中移除。 欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩在声明中强调："我们仍全力致力于通过谈判达成协议，相信能为大西洋两岸的消费者和企业达成互利协议。同时我们继续为所有 可能性做准备，今日启动的磋商将指导这项必要工作。" 新提案将在6月10日前与成员国及其他利益相关方进行磋商，最终版本可能有所调整。 负责贸易事务的欧盟执行机构欧盟委员会本周启动与美政府的谈判，仍致力于就特朗普的关税攻势寻求友好解决方案。委员会官员预计将向华盛顿提供包含 降低贸易和非关税壁垒、增加对美投资等选项的"菜单"，这些选项可能转化为正式提案。 目前双方谈判进展甚微，预计美国大部分关税将维持现状。欧盟本周表示，特朗普持续进行的贸易调查将使欧盟面临新关税的商品总额升至5490亿欧元。 全球贸易流动态势因特朗普政策持续动荡。欧盟周四表示将监控可能因美国关税导致的商品转向，特别是来自中国的商品，并将继续推进 ...

Group 1 - Oil prices increased on May 8, supported by optimism surrounding upcoming trade negotiations between the U.S. and China, following a decline of over $1 the previous trading day [1] - Brent crude futures rose by $0.51, or 0.8%, to $61.63 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures increased by $0.57, or 1%, to $58.64 per barrel [1] - The upcoming meeting between U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Basset and Chinese economic officials is aimed at addressing trade tensions that could impact global oil consumption growth [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates amid rising economic uncertainty has raised concerns about weak demand, limiting the extent of oil price increases [1] - A report from ING analysts indicated that the Fed's stance on interest rates has strengthened the dollar, which in turn has created additional resistance in the commodity markets [2] - Increased gasoline inventories in the U.S. have raised concerns among analysts about the potential for rising consumption as the summer demand period approaches [2] Group 3 - OPEC+ is set to increase oil production, which will add further pressure on oil prices [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Swedish central bank is expected to implement three interest rate cuts this year due to a weakening economy influenced by trade war threats [1] Economic Outlook - Magnus Lindskog from Swedish Commercial Bank indicates that the central bank has hinted at potential rate cuts as trade tensions threaten economic recovery [1] - The central bank acknowledges uncertainty but assesses that increased tariffs will likely reduce demand in Europe, exerting downward pressure on inflation [1] Policy Implications - The bank anticipates that deteriorating sentiment in May will continue to reflect a weakening Swedish economy, prompting the central bank to ease its monetary policy despite inflation remaining above target [1]

美国高筑关税壁垒正引发多重经济危机。美联储理事24日警告称，美国总统特朗普引发的贸易战可能很快会导致失业率上升，不排除采取降息 措施应对。与此同时，物价上涨令美国民众债务压力加剧。在历经数周的虚张声势和不断升级局势后，美国总统特朗普似乎有点"扛不住了"， 他承认，对华征收145%的关税是"不可持续的"。而他的一系列动作，在《纽约时报》看来，则被嘲笑为一次又一次的"胆小鬼眨眼"。一些特 朗普政府官员私下表述称，他们承认未能准确预测中方反应，鉴于中国对美国的出口规模巨大，特朗普似乎原以为中国会是首批"请求（关 税）豁免"的国家之一。 特朗普（资料图） 皇家伦敦资产（Royal London Asset Management）高级经济学家梅勒妮·贝克（Melanie Baker）在研究报告中表示，仍预计美联储将于2025年实 施两次降息，但降息时间不会早于下半年。 她指出："我们预计美联储会等到下半年再开启降息。"届时经济将出现更明确的放缓迹象。当前衰退风险已有所上升，全球及美国国内增长前 景已然恶化。不过，鉴于互征关税的暂停以及美国总统特朗普对市场压力作出回应的迹象，贝克目前仍属于"经济放缓"阵营，而非"经济衰 ...

Group 1 - The long-term rebound of the euro is expected to squeeze profits and revenues for European companies, particularly exporters facing challenges from the strong euro and U.S. tariffs [1][4][5] - Major European companies such as SAP, Porsche, Heineken, and Schneider Electric have warned investors about the potential impact of the strong euro on their earnings [1][4][5] - The euro has appreciated over 9% against the dollar, reaching a three-year high, which raises concerns about further euro appreciation and its effects on European export competitiveness [1][4][6] Group 2 - Analysts predict that the strong euro could lead to a significant reduction in profit expectations for major European exporters, with HSBC lowering profit growth forecasts for the FTSE Europe Index companies to 2.9% [4][5] - SAP's CFO indicated that a 0.01 USD increase in the euro to dollar exchange rate could reduce the company's annual revenue by 30 million euros, highlighting the direct financial impact of currency fluctuations [5] - Heineken and Schneider Electric also reported potential profit reductions due to the strong euro, with estimates of 180 million euros and 1.25 billion euros respectively [5][6] Group 3 - The strong euro is seen as a double-edged sword for European trade, benefiting imports but posing challenges for exports, particularly in the context of the current international economic environment [2][4] - The euro's rise is partly attributed to the weakening of the dollar, as investors seek alternative safe-haven assets amid uncertainties surrounding U.S. economic policies [7] - The overall performance of European stocks has been negatively affected by the euro's strength, with key companies underperforming compared to the broader European market [6][7]

在特朗普贸易战和美元基本面削弱的双重打击下， 亚洲投资者正在大规模"逃离"世界储备货币 ——美元 ， "卖出美国，买入亚洲"的投资主题愈发强烈，资金大规模回流亚洲 ，推动亚洲货币 出现历史性反弹、股市也随之上涨。 台币两天暴涨10%，港元测试联系汇率的强势兑换保证水平，新加坡元飙升至近十年最高水平， 人民币在岸汇率周二大涨近600点，升至去年11月以来最高，韩元、马来西亚林吉特等也纷纷上 涨。亚洲债市和股市也随之受益，股市中以内需型企业的股票尤为突出。 5月7日， 著名经济学家Stephen Jen警告称， 亚洲出口商和投资者多年来可能积累了"极其庞 大"的美元储备 。 随着美国主导的贸易战不断加剧，一些亚洲投资者可能会将大量资金汇回， 美 元可能面临2.5万亿美元的"雪崩式"抛压。 1 9 9 8 年 的 " 镜 像 版 本 " 这 一 次 " 亚 洲 不 要 美 元 " 了 ？ 自20世纪末的亚洲金融危机以来， 亚洲经济体长期深陷"美元陷阱"。 1997-1998年亚洲金融危机期间的资本外流，导致亚洲多个国家货币暴跌。此后，亚洲地区加强 了美元储备的积累。 目前，亚洲最大的美元储备来自中国、韩国和新加坡， ...

Group 1 - The United States is currently limited to using economic methods such as trade wars and tariffs to confront China due to complex considerations and various influencing factors [2] - The U.S. economy exhibits structural vulnerabilities, with consumer spending accounting for approximately 30% of global household final consumption, leading to a high dependency on imports [2] - The manufacturing sector's contribution to GDP has decreased from 17% in 1991 to 10.2% in 2023, indicating a hollowing out of domestic manufacturing [2] Group 2 - The political environment in the U.S. is characterized by high levels of partisanship and polarization, with figures like Trump leveraging a tough stance on China to gain electoral support [3] - This strategy diverts public attention from domestic issues, focusing blame on China and consolidating political backing, particularly in regions like the Rust Belt [3] Group 3 - From the perspective of international law and order, the U.S. recognizes that direct military confrontation would violate international laws and norms [4] - Trade disputes and tariff adjustments provide a framework within international rules, allowing the U.S. to express dissatisfaction and exert influence without resorting to military action [4] Group 4 - The U.S. military strategy is complex, with a global network of alliances and strategic positioning, maintaining a dominant military presence [5] - Direct military confrontation could provoke a strong response from China, leading to significant casualties and economic losses, as well as potential global economic repercussions [5]