Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Viewpoints - The industry is experiencing significant supply pressure in the fourth quarter, with a focus on capacity reduction [5][19] - The overall market performance shows that the agriculture sector has risen by 2.70%, ranking 8th among 31 primary industries [12][14] - The pig price continues to decline, with an average price of 11.56 CNY/kg as of November 14, 2025, indicating ongoing supply pressure [5][16] - The white feather chicken market is stabilizing, with prices for chicken seedlings at 3.7 CNY/piece and broiler prices at 3.55 CNY/kg as of November 14, 2025 [27] Summary by Sections Market Review - The agriculture sector has shown resilience, with the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery index rising while the broader market indices fell [12][14] - Key sub-sectors such as agricultural product processing and animal vaccines have seen significant price increases [14] Livestock Industry Chain Tracking Pigs - The average pig price has decreased by 0.31 CNY/kg over the week, with ongoing supply pressures expected to persist [5][16] - The average loss for self-bred pigs is 115 CNY per head, while for purchased piglets, it is 206 CNY per head, indicating increasing financial strain [17] - Capacity reduction is anticipated to accelerate due to low prices and regulatory pressures [19] White Feather Chicken - The price of chicken seedlings remains stable, with a profit of approximately 0.8 CNY per piece [27] - The supply of grandparent stock has decreased significantly, with a 19.01% reduction compared to the previous year [27][30] Planting Industry Chain Tracking - Sugar prices have slightly rebounded, with an average price of 5660 CNY/ton as of November 14, 2025 [35] - Soybean prices have increased, with Brazilian soybeans at 4123 CNY/ton, reflecting a 1.8% rise [35] - Corn prices have shown slight fluctuations, averaging 2211 CNY/ton, up by 12 CNY/ton [36]

行 业 定 期 报 告 生猪养殖：（1）10 月销售简报：猪企出栏增量、均价下跌。出栏方 面，10月17家猪企合计出栏生猪1732.42万头，环比+22.51%，同比+29.29%。 均价方面，10 月行业供给压力较大，猪价大幅下跌。上市猪企销售均价同 步下降，10 月 13 家猪企生猪销售均价为 11.66 元/公斤，环比-11.12%，同 比-33.94%。（2）上周行情：上周猪价震荡偏弱运行。周初降温消费好转， 叠加散户惜售情绪增强，推动价格反弹；周中养殖端出栏节奏开始加快， 导致猪价由涨转跌。11 月 14 日猪价 11.66 元/公斤，周环比-0.19 元/公斤。 上周出栏均重继续回升。集团场月初缩量后于周内恢复正常出栏节奏，叠 加气温下降促进猪只日增重提升，出栏均重回升；肥标价差相对高位情况 下，散养户及二育户出栏大体重猪为主。11 月 13 日当周生猪出栏均重 128.48kg，周环比+0.18kg。展望后市，近期养殖已陷入亏损状态，叠加产 能调控政策推进，行业产能去化预期增强，有望推动长期猪价中枢上移， 低成本 优质猪企将获 得超额收益。10 月涌益 /钢联/卓创能 繁环比 -0.77%/+0 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [2][46]. Core Insights - The Swine price continues to decline, leading to an increase in losses, while the capacity reduction is expected to accelerate. The pressure on fat pig supply remains significant, and the seasonal demand for pigs may not boost prices, potentially undermining industry confidence [2][3]. - The pet food sector showed strong sales performance during the "Double Eleven" shopping festival, with leading companies achieving significant market share growth. The report suggests focusing on the growth potential of top-tier companies in this sector [2][3]. - The report highlights the stable performance of the white feather broiler chicken market, with slight declines in chick prices but stable chicken meat prices. The overall supply remains abundant, indicating a focus on leading companies for long-term value [2][3]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shenwan Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Index rose by 2.7%, while the CSI 300 Index fell by 1.1%. The top five gainers included Green Kang Bio (27.6%), ST Jiawo (23.2%), and Pingtan Development (22.2%) [2][3][9]. Swine Farming - The report notes a continued decline in swine prices, with the average price for external three yuan pigs at 11.56 yuan/kg, down 2.9% year-on-year. Losses for self-breeding sows are reported at -71.95 yuan per head, a week-on-week increase in losses [2][3][41]. Pet Food - The report emphasizes the strong sales of domestic pet food brands during the "Double Eleven" event, with major brands like Guobao Pet and Zhongchong leading in sales rankings across various platforms [2][3]. Poultry Farming - The average selling price for white feather broiler chicks is reported at 3.35 yuan per chick, a week-on-week decrease of 2.9%. The average price for white feather broiler meat is stable at 3.45 yuan/kg [2][3]. Beef Cattle - The report indicates a slight decrease in the prices of beef cattle and calves, with the average price for fattened bulls at 25.6 yuan/kg, down 0.16% week-on-week [2][3].

Group 1: Livestock Industry Outlook - The livestock industry is expected to experience a significant reversal, with both beef and milk prices projected to rebound, driven by a reduction in domestic beef production capacity and a historical high in the meat-to-milk price ratio, which may accelerate the culling of dairy cows [1][15][45] - Domestic beef prices have been on a downward trend, with a cumulative decline of nearly 20% since June 2023, reaching a low of 23.77 CNY/kg by February 2025, while the market price for beef has dropped to 51.38 CNY/kg, down 6.5% year-on-year [15][21] - The supply of beef is expected to tighten as the number of cull cows decreases, leading to a potential price increase for beef starting in 2025, with prices anticipated to rise until 2027 [21][45] Group 2: Swine and Poultry Farming - The investment focus is shifting from cyclical trends to company management and cash flow generation, with leading companies in the swine and poultry sectors expected to benefit from improved cash flow and profitability amid industry-wide capacity reductions [2][9] - In the swine sector, the official capacity control is expected to enhance the cash flow of leading enterprises, positioning them as attractive investment opportunities [2][9] - The poultry sector is anticipated to see limited supply fluctuations, with leading companies likely to achieve higher cash flow and dividend returns as demand recovers [2][9] Group 3: Feed Industry Dynamics - The deepening industrialization of livestock farming and clear division of labor in the feed industry are expected to allow leading feed companies to further enhance their competitive advantages through technology and service [2][9][12] Group 4: Pet Industry Growth - The pet industry is viewed as a promising new consumption sector, benefiting from demographic trends, with domestic brands rapidly emerging. The performance of leading pet food companies is expected to show strong growth through 2026 [2][9][12] - Recommendations include leading domestic brands such as Guai Bao Pet and Zhong Chong Co., which are positioned to capitalize on the growing market [2][9][12] Group 5: Bulk Agricultural Products Overview - The agricultural products market is currently in a bottoming phase, with expectations of upward movement in the medium to long term. Key products include corn, soybeans, and oilseeds, which are projected to see stable supply and price support [3][9] - The domestic corn market is expected to maintain strong bottom support, while soybean imports are anticipated to rise, influencing domestic prices positively [3][9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the pig farming industry has officially entered a phase of loss and capacity reduction, with significant supply pressure expected to continue in the coming years [1] - Longjiang Securities predicts that the limited improvement in industry debt ratios and liquidity ratios may lead to an accelerated capacity reduction [1] - The interaction between industry capacity regulation policies and loss-driven capacity reduction may result in a more thorough capacity reduction cycle compared to 2021 and 2023 [1] Group 2 - The Livestock ETF (159865) has seen an inflow of 301 million shares and a net inflow of 244 million shares, indicating strong capital interest in livestock assets [1] - The Livestock ETF tracks the China Securities Livestock Index (930707), which selects listed companies involved in livestock farming and feed processing to reflect the overall performance of the livestock industry [1] - The China Securities Livestock Index covers multiple sub-sectors, including livestock farming, feed, and animal health, demonstrating strong industry representation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The pig farming industry is experiencing significant losses, leading to accelerated capacity reduction, while the dairy market faces supply-demand imbalances, impacting livestock numbers and prices [1][2]. Group 1: Pig Farming Industry - The pig farming sector has been in a state of continuous loss for several weeks, with the national average price of commercial pigs dropping by 28% year-on-year in Q3 2025, and major listed pig companies seeing a 68% decline in net profit [1]. - Current asset-liability ratios in the industry are well-controlled, but there is a noticeable divergence between the growth rate of pig sales and cost control, indicating a shift from cyclical to efficiency-driven competition [1]. - Due to ongoing losses and policy guidance, it is expected that capacity reduction will accelerate, laying the groundwork for a future price recovery [1]. Group 2: Dairy and Beef Market - Dairy prices have fallen below the previous cycle's bottom, highlighting a significant supply-demand imbalance, with dairy cow inventory decreasing by over 8% cumulatively in October [1]. - The beef market is entering an upward price trend, with expectations of price fluctuations in November and December due to the winter consumption peak [1]. - Long-term projections suggest that the beef cycle's price increase may exceed expectations, particularly benefiting companies with cow resources [1]. Group 3: Index and Stock Performance - The CSI Livestock Breeding Index (930707) shows mixed performance among its constituent stocks, with Tianma Technology (603668) leading with a 5.06% increase, while Jinnong (002548) is the biggest loser [1]. - As of October 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Livestock Breeding Index account for 65.58% of the index, with Muyuan Foods (002714) and Wens Foodstuffs (300498) being the largest components [2]. - The performance of the top ten stocks varies, with Muyuan Foods down 3.63% and Wens Foodstuffs down 2.10% [3].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious outlook for the agricultural sector, particularly in pig farming, with expectations of price declines and potential capacity reduction [3][24]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index increased by 2.70% week-on-week, but underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [13][14]. - The pig farming industry is currently experiencing a downward price trend, with average pig prices at 11.73 CNY/kg, indicating a 1.51% decrease week-on-week [23][24]. - The poultry sector shows signs of stabilization, particularly in yellow-feathered chicken prices, which have improved due to better downstream demand [4][40]. - The beef market is expected to see price increases as it enters the consumption peak season, while dairy cow inventory is on a downward trend [5][44]. - The planting sector is facing short-term supply and demand pressures, but there is potential for improvement if grain production decreases significantly [6][48]. - Feed prices have stabilized, and the aquaculture sector is showing positive price trends for certain products [64][68]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The average weight of pigs at market is 128.48 kg, remaining high historically, but prices are expected to continue declining due to increased supply and limited seasonal storage capacity [3][24]. - The industry is currently in a loss-making state, with self-breeding profits at -114.81 CNY per head [23][24]. - Recommendations include focusing on low-cost, high-quality enterprises such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group [24]. Poultry Farming - White feather chicken prices are under pressure, averaging 7.12 CNY/kg, while yellow feather chicken prices are showing improvement due to demand recovery [4][40]. - The overall profitability in poultry farming remains challenged, but there are signs of recovery in the market [4][40]. Livestock - Live cattle prices in Shandong are stable at 26.87 CNY/kg, with expectations for gradual increases as the consumption season approaches [5][44]. - The dairy sector is experiencing a decrease in average purchase prices, but there is potential for stabilization in raw milk prices next year [5][44]. Planting Sector - Domestic corn prices are at 2170.00 CNY/ton, with fluctuations expected due to new crop releases and external uncertainties [6][48]. - The sector is positioned at a low point but could improve if there are significant reductions in grain production [6][48]. Feed and Aquaculture - Feed prices for fattening pigs are stable at 3.33 CNY/kg, while prices for various fish species are showing upward trends [64][68]. - The aquaculture sector is experiencing price increases for shrimp and other seafood products, indicating a positive market outlook [64][68].

行业研究丨专题报告丨农产品 [Table_Title] 生猪养殖专题系列 134：猪价下行与政策限产共 振，重视产能去化投资机会 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 10 月以来商品猪与仔猪价格同步进入亏损区间，行业正式开启亏损去产能，且不论从能繁母猪 还是仔猪等前瞻指标看，直至 2026 年上半年供应压力仍持续。在行业负债率和流动比率等指 标相比上一轮周期改善有限的背景下，行业产能去化或进一步加速。与此同时，行业产能调控 政策或持续对头部企业产能进行限制，与亏损去产能形成合力，或使本轮产能去化较 2021、 2023 年更彻底。2025Q3 畜禽板块基金重仓比例降至 0.98%，处于历史低位，重点推荐低成 本以及现金流具有优势的养殖企业，推荐组合：【牧原股份、温氏股份、德康农牧、神农集团】。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_Title 生猪养殖专题系列 2] 134：猪价下行与政策限产共 振，重视产能去化投资机会 [Table_Summary2] 10 月以来商品猪与仔猪价格同步进入亏损区间，行业正式开启亏损去产能，且不论从能繁母 猪还是仔猪等前瞻指标看， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news indicates that the pig farming industry is currently experiencing significant losses, with pig prices falling below the cash cost line for most enterprises, leading to pessimistic expectations among farmers regarding future market conditions [1] - The Guangfa Securities report suggests that the current pig cycle is in a downward phase, entering a bottoming stage, and that the process of capacity reduction is expected to accelerate, particularly under the "anti-involution" backdrop [1] - Leading companies with cost advantages and strong cash flow are expected to be more competitive and may achieve counter-cyclical expansion at the bottom of the cycle [1] Group 2 - As of October 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities Livestock Breeding Index account for 65.58% of the index, with major companies including Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Haida Group [2]

Group 1: Swine Industry - The swine industry in China is currently facing three pressures: declining market prices, rising epidemic risks, and policy guidance, leading to an increased motivation for capacity reduction [1][2] - As of the end of September, the number of breeding sows in China was 40.35 million, a decrease of 30,000 from the previous month and 370,000 from the peak at the end of last year [2] - The average price of live pigs was 11.91 yuan/kg, down 0.58 yuan from the previous week, while the average price of piglets increased to 23.62 yuan/kg, up 0.48 yuan [1][2] Group 2: Poultry Industry - The price of broiler chickens is currently fluctuating at low levels, with the average price of broiler chickens at 3.53 yuan/kg, while the average price of white feather broiler chickens is 13.8 yuan/kg [3] - The poultry industry is experiencing high production capacity, with the number of breeding chickens at historical highs, leading to increased supply and potential price stabilization in the medium term [3] - The yellow chicken prices have been relatively high due to seasonal demand recovery, with prices for Wen's yellow chicken at 13.33 yuan/kg and Lihua yellow chicken at 12.58 yuan/kg [4] Group 3: Animal Health Industry - The animal health industry has seen a recovery in market conditions since the beginning of the year, with major companies expected to report positive third-quarter results [6] - Prices for key antibiotics have remained high, with products like Tiamulin and Tylosin showing price increases compared to the first quarter [6] - There is a notable increase in sales of domestic cat trivalent vaccines, indicating growth potential in the market as domestic alternatives become more prevalent [6]