Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market shows a situation of "not bad in reality but poor in expectation". With high steel production corresponding to moderate demand and inventory in a seasonal improvement stage, unilateral speculative short - selling is not cost - effective. For steel, wait for new contradictions to accumulate before entering the market, and choose hot - rolled coil with better liquidity in the spot - futures aspect [4][8]. - For coking coal and coke, the second round of price increase is temporarily shelved. With sufficient supply, expected peak of molten iron, and weakening pressure from the trade war in May, it is advisable to short on rallies [5]. - In the ferroalloy market, the weekly output of manganese - silicon decreased slightly during the holiday, while that of silicon - iron remained stable. Silicon - iron has low valuation and large production reduction, so it is recommended to try to go long on dips [6]. - For iron ore, although the price has recovered after a sharp drop during the holiday, due to the expectation of production control, it is not recommended to hold long single - side positions, but positive spreads can be used when molten iron is at a high level [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: On April 30, for far - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3122 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan (- 0.45%); HC2601 at 3232 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan (- 0.28%); I2601 at 679 yuan/ton, down 4.5 yuan (- 0.66%); J2601 at 1576 yuan/ton, down 13.5 yuan (- 0.85%); JM2601 at 980 yuan/ton, down 10.5 yuan (- 1.06%). For near - month contracts, RB2510 closed at 3096 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan (- 0.42%); HC2510 at 3204 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan (- 0.44%); I2509 at 703.5 yuan/ton, down 5.5 yuan (- 0.78%); J2509 at 1538 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan (- 0.97%); JM2509 at 930.5 yuan/ton, down 5.5 yuan (- 0.59%) [2]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: On April 30, the cross - month spreads of RB2510 - 2601 was - 26 yuan/ton, HC2510 - 2601 was - 28 yuan/ton, I2509 - 2601 was 24.5 yuan/ton, J2509 - 2601 was - 38 yuan/ton, JM2509 - 2601 was - 49.5 yuan/ton. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 108 yuan/ton, the ratio of rebar to iron ore was 4.40, the ratio of coking coal to coke was 1.65, the rebar disk profit was 108.48 yuan/ton, and the coking disk profit was 300.44 yuan/ton [2]. - **Basis**: On April 30, the basis of HC (main contract) was 36 yuan/ton, RB was 104 yuan/ton, I was 72 yuan/ton, J was 120.66 yuan/ton, JM was 89.5 yuan/ton [2]. Steel - **Market Situation**: During the May Day holiday, most domestic steel spot markets were closed, and a few areas and varieties tried to increase prices. As of May 5, the price of billets in Tangshan increased by 20 yuan to 2970 yuan/ton, and the price of finished products remained stable. The steel inventory is in a seasonal decline stage, and the export indicators have not shown a significant weakening trend. The current high steel production corresponds to moderate demand, and the market shows a situation of "not bad in reality but poor in expectation" [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Spot Market**: Before the holiday, some steel mills lowered the base price of top - charged coke by 20 yuan, and the second round of price increase was temporarily shelved. The coking coal auction had many unsuccessful bids, and the transaction price mainly decreased. During the holiday, the port customs clearance of Mongolian coal was on holiday, which may lead to further inventory reduction, but considering the sufficient supply of Mongolian coal, the customs clearance is likely to recover after the inventory in the supervision area decreases [5]. - **Futures Market**: During the holiday, most overseas industrial products fell due to concerns about insufficient demand. Although there are signals of negotiation between China and the US and the possibility of tariff relaxation, the trade war is still ongoing. The demand in the black market in May needs to be verified. The steel supply - demand was good before the holiday, but the price increase was still weak. In the future, the terminal demand is likely to weaken in May, and the supply policy has great uncertainty [5]. Ferroalloy - **Production Situation**: During the holiday, the weekly output of manganese - silicon decreased slightly, and that of silicon - iron remained stable. The supply - demand of silicon - iron is tight, and the production reduction in the production area is large. Manganese - silicon is still in a surplus state, and it is difficult for some factories to reduce production [6]. - **Cost and Price**: During the holiday, the cost did not change significantly. Manganese ore prices are under pressure from high supply, chemical coke is stable, and the price of raw coal for semi - coke has a small increase. The alloy price matches the current supply - demand and valuation, and silicon - iron has a low valuation [6]. Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand**: The total iron ore shipment remained stable, and the Australian shipment decreased significantly this period. The subsequent arrival volume will also remain stable. The steel mill's molten iron output increased significantly this period, reaching 244.35 tons per day (+4.23), and it is expected to be at a high - level shock in the next three weeks. The steel export situation has not weakened [7]. - **Valuation and Trading Strategy**: The short - term valuation of iron ore is relatively low, but the expectation of production control restricts the market valuation. After a sharp drop during the holiday, the price has basically recovered. It is not recommended to hold long single - side positions, but positive spreads can be used when molten iron is at a high level [7].

招商评论 铜 相对于国内 4 月 30 日收盘，5 月 2 日收盘 LME 铜价上涨 0.3%。 宏观来看，市场有贸易战缓和预期，全球股票指数节日内表现偏强。美国 PCE 数据符合预期，非农数据强于 预期，美元指数在关键位置继续震荡。但市场对于美元贬值预期较强，亚洲国家和地区货币对美元大幅升值， 市场担忧对美国资产的抛售再度到来。微观来看，铜矿紧张格局延续，周度 TC 在-42.6 美金。国内平水铜成 交升水来到 200 元以上，国内 back950 元，伦敦结构也来到 20 美金 back。伴随全球库存的快速去化，铜价 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 贸易战反复 2025年05月06日 星期二 商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 | 招商评论 | | | --- | --- | | 贵 | 【市场表现】 | | 金 | 五一小长假海外贵金属市场走弱，以伦敦金为代表的国际金价周四下跌 1.53%，不过随后企稳。 | | 属 | 【消息面】由沙特阿拉伯领导的 OPEC+八国生产商集团周六达成协议，决定在 6 月份再次增产 41.1 万桶/日 | | | 再次拖累油价走弱；第二轮日美关税谈判结束，石破茂强硬表态：绝不接受 ...

Group 1: Energy and Petrochemicals - Oil prices declined weakly during the domestic holiday. Brent 07 contract dropped 3.8% compared to the closing on April 30. OPEC+ plans to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June and may continue in July. The short - term oil market is expected to be volatile and weak [2]. - Precious metals fluctuated widely during the May Day holiday. The Fed is likely to keep interest rates unchanged in May. The long - term upward trend of gold prices is supported, but it's advisable to wait for a pullback before layout [3]. - Fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil are expected to follow the decline of international oil prices. The 380cst high - sulfur fuel oil spot is at a discount, and the ultra - low - sulfur fuel oil spot shows a strong spread [21]. - Asphalt is expected to follow the decline of international oil prices. However, with improved supply - demand, the BU crack spread is expected to be volatile and strong [22]. - LPG has support in the overseas market due to chemical demand, but the domestic market is under pressure as PDH plants enter maintenance. The price is expected to be volatile [23]. Group 2: Non - ferrous Metals - Copper prices fluctuated during the holiday. LME copper inventories dropped to 197,700 tons, and COMEX copper inventories increased to 146,500 short tons. Hold short positions above 78,000 for the 2507 contract [4]. - Aluminum prices may face resistance in the 20,000 - 20,300 yuan range due to uncertain demand in the off - season [5]. - Alumina production has decreased, but capacity may resume. The price is expected to be volatile, and it's advisable to short on rallies [6]. - Zinc prices are weak. With expected imports and weak downstream consumption in the off - season, it's advisable to short on rallies [7]. - Lead prices are weak due to high inventories. The spot import window may open after the holiday, and the price is expected to range between 16,300 - 17,000 yuan/ton [8]. - Nickel prices are at the end of a rebound. Observe for new short - building opportunities [9]. - Tin prices declined due to weak Korean manufacturing and concerns about demand. Hold short positions against 265,000 [10]. - Lithium carbonate prices are in a downward channel. Hold short positions as supply is elastic and inventories are increasing [11]. - Industrial silicon prices are under pressure. Supply - demand structure is poor with slow production resumption and weak demand in the photovoltaic and organic silicon industries [12]. - Polysilicon prices are expected to follow the downward trend of the photovoltaic industry. Supply and demand are in a tight balance, but inventories are rising slightly [13]. Group 3: Ferrous Metals - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices are volatile. Rebar demand improved, and inventories decreased. Hot - rolled coil supply - demand stabilized, and inventories continued to decline. Pay attention to demand in the peak season and policy implementation [14]. - Iron ore prices are expected to be volatile. Supply is increasing seasonally, and domestic port inventories are rising. Pay attention to the pressure when iron - water production peaks [15]. - Coke's second price increase was rejected. Inventories remain high, and pay attention to steel exports [16]. - Coking coal prices are expected to be weakly volatile. Production is gradually recovering, but inventories are high, and downstream procurement is for rigid demand [17]. - Silicomanganese prices are under pressure. Inventories are increasing, and it's advisable to short on rallies [18]. - Ferrosilicon prices are weak. Supply is decreasing, but inventories are rising. Short on rallies [19]. Group 4: Chemicals - Urea prices may decline after the holiday. Supply is sufficient, and pay attention to export dynamics [24]. - Methanol prices are expected to be weak. Supply is increasing, and demand is entering the off - season [25]. - Styrene prices face increasing supply - demand contradictions. Costs are weakening, and production is expected to increase while demand is weak [26]. - Polypropylene and plastic prices are volatile and weak. Demand is weak, and inventories increased during the holiday, but supply pressure may ease with more maintenance [27]. - PVC and caustic soda prices: PVC may be low - level volatile due to weak domestic demand. Caustic soda's profitability improved, but downstream demand is weak [28]. - PX and PTA prices are driven by oil prices. Supply is contracting, but polyester industry's centralized production cuts are a potential risk [28]. - Ethylene glycol prices are weak. Supply is temporarily contracting, but short - term imports are high, and the price is affected by oil prices [29]. - Short - fiber and bottle - chip prices are mainly driven by raw materials. Pay attention to trade frictions and terminal orders after the holiday [30]. Group 5: Agricultural Products - Soybean and soybean meal prices are volatile. The US soybean planting season is important. The domestic supply pattern will shift from tight to loose. Soybean meal futures may be strong in the short - term [34]. - Soybean oil and palm oil prices are expected to be volatile. Palm oil is in the production - increasing cycle, and the domestic soybean supply pattern will change [35]. - Rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil: The supply of rapeseed meal may ease in the long - term. Pay attention to Sino - US - Canada trade policies [36]. - Corn prices are volatile. Port inventory pressure decreased, and downstream starch production increased. Pay attention to market divergence [38]. - Hog prices are stable during the holiday. Future supply is expected to increase, and pay attention to the decline in spot prices [39]. - Egg prices are expected to be weak. Supply is sufficient, and demand will be weak in the off - season and during the rainy season [40]. - Cotton prices: US cotton rebounded, and pay attention to Sino - US trade negotiations. Domestic demand is in the off - season, and external demand is under pressure [41]. - Sugar prices are volatile. Brazil's new - season supply is expected to be sufficient, and pay attention to weather in Guangxi [42]. - Apple prices are volatile. Spot sales are good, and inventory is low. Pay attention to new - season production [43]. Group 6: Others - Container shipping index (European line) is expected to be volatile and weak. The near - month contract is under pressure, and the far - month contract is affected by tariff expectations and geopolitical risks [20]. - Wood prices are weak. Supply is decreasing, and demand is entering the off - season. The price is expected to be weak, and it's advisable to wait and see [44]. - Pulp prices are weak. Inventory is high, and downstream procurement is cautious. The fundamental situation remains weak [45]. - Stock index futures may recover in the short - term following the improvement of global risk appetite. The market style may shift to technology - growth [46]. - Treasury bond futures are expected to be in a range - bound pattern. Manufacturing expansion slowed, and risk appetite recovered [47].

外交部发言人林剑5月6日主持例行记者会。有外媒记者提问，美国总统特朗普在近期的采访中称， 他不会为了和中国举行谈判而取消对华的关税。目前，双方在进行谈判的意愿上有多接近？ 对此，林剑表示："这场关税战是美方挑起的，中方的态度是一贯的，也是明确的。打，奉陪到底。 谈，大门敞开。"林剑强调，美方近期不断表示，希望同中方进行谈判。关税战贸易战没有赢家。如 果美方真想通过对话谈判解决问题，就应该停止威胁、施压，在平等、尊重、互惠的基础上同中方 开展对话。 ...

Group 1 - The manufacturing sector is shrinking due to high tariffs, but the service sector remains resilient, with the US ISM Services PMI for April exceeding expectations and reversing the decline from the previous month [1] - This data supports a slight increase in the US dollar by approximately 0.2%, alleviating the significant appreciation of Asian currencies caused by optimistic sentiments regarding US trade agreements [1] - The New Taiwan Dollar continued its downward trend, dropping by 0.4% to 30.275 against the US dollar, while the Taiwan Stock Exchange weighted index closed relatively unchanged at 20,522.59 points [1] Group 2 - The S&P 500 index futures experienced a decline of 0.4%, with individual stocks like Ford Motor Company retracting financial guidance due to tariff concerns, and Palantir's stock plummeting by about 10% in pre-market trading due to disappointing earnings [1] - Investors are closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's decision, with widespread expectations that the Fed may maintain a wait-and-see approach amid conflicting signals from the trade war and strong employment data [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent trade tensions between China and India, marked by India's imposition of tariffs on steel imports and China's anti-dumping investigation into medical equipment components, reflect deeper strategic rivalries rather than isolated economic disputes [1][3][10]. Trade Policies - India has imposed a 12% temporary tariff on imported steel products to protect its domestic industry from what it perceives as cheap Chinese imports, claiming it aims to curb the impact on local manufacturers [3][5]. - The Indian government has previously enacted selective bans on Chinese products, such as drone components and apps, while allowing American companies to operate freely, indicating a strategic alignment with U.S. interests [3][5]. Strategic Implications - The timing of India's tariff announcement coincided with the U.S. extending tariffs on Chinese goods, suggesting a coordinated effort to counter China [3][10]. - India's approach to balancing relations with major powers, including the U.S. and Russia, while simultaneously engaging in confrontational policies towards China, highlights its complex geopolitical strategy [5][10]. Economic Impact - China's response to India's tariffs includes a swift anti-dumping investigation into critical components for medical imaging equipment, which could significantly impact India's healthcare sector, as 65% of its high-end medical imaging devices are imported, with 40% from China [7][11]. - The potential expansion of China's countermeasures to include India's pharmaceutical and IT sectors, where India exports over $3 billion in drug raw materials to China, could lead to severe economic repercussions for India [7][11]. Trade Relations - In 2024, the trade volume between China and India exceeded $130 billion, with China remaining India's largest trading partner for the 15th consecutive year, surpassing India's trade with the U.S., Russia, and Japan combined [11][16]. - Despite political rhetoric advocating for reduced dependence on China, Indian imports from China increased by 7.3% in the first quarter of 2025, indicating a reliance on Chinese goods [11][16].

从技术上来看，对于市场无规律的炒作避险情绪也不要盲目追随，按照今日早间行情再疯狂拉升的状 态，今日上方可能会继续去测试3400整数关口，但是情绪上过于亢奋的状态还是不宜去盲目追随看涨， 更不宜去盯着避险情绪的枪口去硬刚搏空。日内下方则着重关注10、5日线3310-00一带的测试，短线如 果欲参与，则有待回撤5、10日线再考虑短多。至于后期走势，则多关注周四凌晨美联储利率决定，期 间依旧要着重紧盯地缘局势的演变，以及特朗普关税政策的影响。 总之，当前黄金市场受多种因素综合影响，走势存在不确定性。金友需密切关注美联储利率决议、国际 贸易局势等关键。不过就目前局势来看，早间一波大涨几十美金，很容易造成一个卖预期行情，操作上 尽量还是回调在进场即可。 故日内操作上张津镭建议： 黄金：3350-3353做多，止损3340，目标看3390-3400一线，破位持有。 张津镭：避险升温致金价大涨，美联储会议将成"胜负手" 昨日黄金走了一个震荡反弹行情吗，亚盘开盘震荡走高午盘反弹至3270后回落一波至3250上方。随后金 价再度反弹，晚间突破3300关口，最高是到了3337美元一线，最终金价是收盘于3334美元，日线收于一 根 ...

基本面： 现货黄金报3335附近美元/盎司； 现货白银报32.50美元/盎司； -----------日内金融市场热点----------------- 13:45 瑞士4月未季调失业率(%) 16:30 英国4月SPGI服务业PMI终值 20:30 美国3月贸易帐(亿美元) 周二（5月6日）亚市盘初，现货黄金在近一周高位窄幅震荡，目前交投于3330美元/盎司附近。受美元走软和避险需求推动，金价周一上涨近3%，现货黄金 收报3333.73美元/盎司，较上周五收盘价上涨近100美元，市场正在等待美联储本周晚些时候的政策决定。美元指数周一下跌 0.2%，使得黄金对其他货币持 有者来说价格降低；市场权衡特朗普总统关税政策的持续不确定性及其对经济的影响。美元兑亚洲货币走软，部分原因是一些投资者在传出美国将加征更多 关税的消息后，清空了大量未对冲头寸。 美元在亚洲遭到抛售，部分原因是一些人担心美国最早将于周三宣布对半导体征收关税，而且有传言称，在这些双边贸易谈判中，美国可能会让东亚货币升 值。美国总统特朗普周日宣布对海外生产的电影征收100%的关税，再次引发了对全球贸易战潜在后果的担忧。财政部长贝森特周一为特朗普的关税 ...

上天天基金APP搜索【777】领 98 元券包 ，黄金基金10元起投！限量发放！先到先得！ 金价，卷土重来！ 在调整多日后，金价再度大涨。5月5日，现货黄金及COMEX黄金期货价格涨幅一度超过2.7%。其中，现货 黄金盘中突破3320美元/盎司，日内一度上涨超80美元。 今年以来，金价累计涨幅超过26%。世界黄金协会发布的报告显示，一季度全球金价20次突破历史新高，受此 影响，全球金饰消费总量同比下降21%，为2020年以来的最低点。不过，黄金投资需求大幅增长，一季度全球 黄金投资需求量为551.9吨，同比大增170%。这说明，在金价屡创新高的背景下，全球金饰需求下降，但黄金 作为投资产品的属性更被看好。 3月份，金价首次突破3000美元大关；4月份，金价又多次刷新历史新高。4月22日，现货黄金价格首次突破 3500美元门槛，随后连续多日调整，直至5月5日再度大幅上涨。金价的此轮上涨，是在全球经济增长放缓、关 税不确定性增加和央行购买推动需求上升的背景下发生的。在持续的不确定性中，黄金被视为一种受欢迎 的"避险"资产。 有分析指出，5月5日金价上涨，主要缘于美元走软和避险资金流入。稍早之前，美国总统特朗普宣布 ...

摘要周二(5月6日)亚盘时段，国际黄金表现强劲，截至发稿金价暂报3378.09美元/盎司，涨幅1.32%。本 交易日将出炉美国3月份贸易帐，投资者需要予以关注，另外，需要继续关注地缘局势和国际贸易局势 的相关消息。 周二(5月6日)亚盘时段，国际黄金表现强劲，截至发稿金价暂报3378.09美元/盎司，涨幅1.32%。本交易 日将出炉美国3月份贸易帐，投资者需要予以关注，另外，需要继续关注地缘局势和国际贸易局势的相 关消息。 【要闻速递】 特朗普当地时间周日宣布，他计划对海外制作的电影征收100%的关税，这是他对美国进口产品的限制 性贸易政策首次延伸至娱乐业。这再次点燃投资者对全球贸易战潜在后果得担忧。 当地时间周一，美国总统特朗普签署关于生物医药研究的命令，希望借机促进美国药品制造业。 特朗普并宣布，将在未来两周内宣布对医药产品的关税措施。 此外，周一，知情人士透露，美国在最近的谈判中拒绝了日本提出的全面豁免10%的对等关税以及针对 特定国家的关税的要求。 消息人士称，包括美国财长贝森特在内的美国官员上周在华盛顿与日本首席谈判代表赤泽亮正举行会谈 时表示，特朗普政府打算只削减14%的特定国家关税，该关税暂停至 ...