STARTRADER星迈发现在特朗普政府贸易政策掀起的惊涛骇浪中，芝加哥零售商吉姆・图克勒(Jim Tuchler)的 遭遇，意外地与美联储主席鲍威尔产生了共鸣。这场由关税动荡引发的经济风暴，正以超乎想象的力量，打乱 企业的经营节奏，也让美联储的货币政策制定陷入前所未有的困境。 图克勒在电商平台上的一次普通采购，却演变成一场充满未知的 "胆小鬼博弈"。他下单的 "价值 8 万美元的丝 袜"，在关税的阴云笼罩下，最终账单可能飙升至 20 万美元。这种巨大的不确定性，让这位经验丰富的零售商 陷入迷茫，他不禁质问："这种环境下怎么做商业计划?" 图克勒的困惑，正是无数美国企业的缩影。当进口成本 与出口税率如同飘忽不定的幽灵，企业无法准确预估成本与利润，正常的生产、采购、销售等商业活动都失去 了可靠的参照，如同在迷雾中航行的船只，找不到方向。 企业的困境直接传导至宏观经济层面，让美联储的政策制定者们焦头烂额。美国加征对等关税，本意在保护本 土产业，但却可能引发通胀抬头，推高物价水平;而消费者因对经济前景担忧而减少支出，以及各国采取的报复 性措施，又会压制产出、阻碍企业招聘新员工和进行投资。这些相互矛盾的经济信号，如同 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. government's tariff policies are causing significant harm to its own economy, with analysts suggesting that these measures are more detrimental than beneficial [1][3] - The U.S. national debt has reached an alarming $10.8 trillion, with interest payments consuming 24% of the federal budget, highlighting the financial strain on the government [3] - The recent tariff policies have led to retaliatory tariffs from other countries, adversely affecting U.S. industries and leading to job losses, particularly in the Midwest [3][7] Group 2 - The 90-day delay in tariff implementation is framed as a grace period for trade partners, but it is actually a desperate measure to buy time for the U.S. government amid a debt crisis [5] - Core inflation in the U.S. has surged to 6.2%, with food prices rising dramatically, indicating a growing cost-of-living crisis for American households [5] - The U.S. is pressuring other countries to increase investments in the U.S. as part of the tariff delay conditions, reflecting a sense of economic desperation [5] Group 3 - China's response to U.S. tariffs, such as halting soybean purchases from the U.S., is significantly impacting American farmers and industries reliant on Chinese imports [7][8] - The trade war has led to increased prices for consumer goods, with examples such as hair products and sports shoes seeing substantial price hikes due to tariffs [7][15] - The ongoing trade conflict is revealing the limitations of the "America First" policy, as the U.S. becomes increasingly dependent on global supply chains [8] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate policies are creating tension between the Trump administration and the central bank, with potential implications for inflation and national debt management [9][11] - If interest rates are lowered as requested, inflation could exceed 9%, complicating the government's ability to manage its debt and social welfare programs [11] Group 5 - The impact of tariffs is being felt by ordinary Americans, with rising prices for essential goods leading to financial strain on households [13][15] - The narrative of American workers suffering due to trade policies is underscored by personal stories of increased costs and job losses in various sectors [13][15] Group 6 - The global response to U.S. tariffs includes countries forming new trade agreements and financial systems, indicating a shift towards a multipolar world economy [17][19] - The ongoing globalization trend is emphasized by the growth of cross-border e-commerce, demonstrating that trade is fundamentally about mutual benefit rather than zero-sum competition [19]

Fundamental Analysis - Trump's announcement of a 100% tariff on overseas film production has raised global trade war concerns, increasing market uncertainty and driving demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3] - The U.S. services sector showed signs of recovery in April, with the non-manufacturing PMI rising from 50.8 in March to 51.6, indicating positive growth [3] - However, the index measuring corporate payment prices surged to its highest level in over two years, driven by tariff impacts, leading to increased inflationary pressures [3] - The market is closely watching the Federal Reserve's policy decision, with expectations that interest rates will remain unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% [3] - Due to the ongoing effects of Trump's tariff policy, market expectations for a rate cut in June have dropped to 37%, with major financial institutions like Goldman Sachs and Barclays pushing back their rate cut predictions to July [3] Technical Analysis - The gold market exhibited a clear shift in momentum last week, initially experiencing a consolidation phase before a downward trend took hold [5] - A significant bullish reversal occurred on Monday, with gold prices rising sharply and closing with a large bullish candle, indicating a potential shift back to a bullish market [5] - Current technical indicators suggest that if gold can maintain support above the moving averages, an upward trend may continue; otherwise, a new round of adjustments could occur [5] - Key resistance levels for gold are identified at 3353, 3370/3371, and 3386, while support levels are at 3305 and the critical zone of 3270-3260 [7][8]

上周，现货黄金市场经历剧烈波动，周线下跌2.28%，收于3240.60美元，较4月22日创下的历史高点 3500.05美元回落约7%。今日欧市盘中，黄金大幅上涨，目前在3257美元附近徘徊。 特朗普重大宣布！ 上周，经济数据暂缓市场担忧，美三大指数集体收涨，最终道指涨3%，标普500指数涨2.92%，纳指涨 3.42%。 本周，全球金融市场即将迎来"美联储时刻"。 当地时间5月7日，美联储将公布最新利率决议，目前市场一致预期，美联储将按兵不动。 芝商所FedWatch工具显示，美联储5月维持利率不变的概率高达97.2%，降息25个基点的概率为2.8%； 美联储到6月维持利率不变的概率为65.1%，累计降息25个基点的概率为34%，累计降息50个基点的概率 为0.9%。 因此，下周美联储利率决议最大的看点或许是美联储主席鲍威尔的新闻发布会。有分析人士警告称，鲍 威尔可能会以"鹰派"基调反驳美联储将受到美国白宫影响的说法，这可能导致美国总统特朗普与鲍威尔 冲突再度升级。 此前，特朗普再次表示不会罢免鲍威尔。 当地时间5月4日，美国总统特朗普在接受美国全国广播公司（NBC）采访时，再次批评了美联储主席 鲍威尔不降低 ...

近期，美国政府以各种借口"借题发挥"，对包括中国在内的所有贸易伙伴挥舞关税大棒，不仅严重侵犯 各国正当权益，严重违反世贸组织规则，更暴露出美国在全球治理中的深层困境，终将损人害己、得不 偿失。 中美建交40余年来，两国经贸合作始终以市场规律为基础，形成了"你中有我、我中有你"的利益交融格 局。中美经贸合作的韧性源于共同利益，如果仅是一方受益，中美经贸关系不可能取得长足发展。 中美贸易合作凸显优势互补。2024年中美贸易额达6882亿美元，较2017年增长18%。这种增长并非单方 面"占便宜"，而是基于互补性分工的共赢结果。2024年联合国《工业化的未来》报告显示，中国的制造 业产值已占全球总量的35%。中国制造业为美国提供质优价廉的终端产品，美国则以技术、品牌和服务 优势占据价值链高端，美对华服务贸易长期保持顺差。美国挥舞关税大棒，理由是"美国长期存在货物 贸易逆差"。这一逻辑选择性忽视了美国在服务贸易中的压倒性优势。若仅以货物贸易逆差断言"美国吃 亏"，无异于以管窥天。 中美双向投资合作彰显利益交融。目前，超过7万家美国企业在华投资，年利润超500亿美元。中国美国 商会报告显示，46%的受访美资企业表示有望 ...

金十数据5月6日讯，路透研究所对律所财务状况的最新分析发现，2025年律所业务开局缓慢，但美国总 统特朗普的全球贸易战推动了3月的需求激增，帮助支撑了第一季度的业绩。报告显示，诉讼和交易工 作在本季度末出现了"大幅增长"，但这一增长不足以完全抵消律师生产力的下滑和1、2月份需求的不 振。报告警告称，特朗普的关税浪潮给律所带来的好处很可能是短暂的。贸易战对律所2025年下半年的 经济前景构成了"直接威胁"，因为在经济不稳定时期，对法律服务的需求通常会先扬后抑。 机构：贸易战让律所受益 但可能只是暂时的 ...

特朗普（资料图） 据环球网报道，针对美国方面多次表示已经和中方就关税问题进行对话，中国驻美国大使馆当天以发言 人答记者问的形式作出回应称，有关言论纯属混淆视听，"据我了解，中美双方并没有就关税问题进行 磋商或谈判，更谈不上达成协议。"中国人民大学国际关系学院教授表示，美国频繁释放中美关税谈判 的虚假消息，证明在第一回合的关税博弈中，美国实际上已不占上风。这说明中国坚定维护自身经济利 益，并与美国进行博弈的战略和政策是正确的。 特朗普目前正在与70多个国家进行关税谈判，通过释放"连中国都屈服"这个假消息，诱导其他国家赶快 屈服于美方提出的关税谈判条件，在一系列谈判当中取得主动权。 三是蒙骗国内的民众。根据最新的 报道，美国共有13个州通过法律途径抗议特朗普政府的关税政策，全美有50个州超60万人高举"住手"， 反对特朗普政府实施的关税措施、移民政策、削减公共开支等引发社会矛盾的举措。通过释放关税大战 已经缓和的信息，来缓解国内的抗议声浪，减轻自身压力。 美媒预计，一旦中国相信特朗普的"让步"并找美国沟通之后，他立刻会宣布"大胜"的消息。然后再对外 散播中国已经撑不下去了，主动来找美方沟通，借此提高价码。因为自始 ...

Core Viewpoint - Analysts generally expect a "strong start" for A-shares after the holiday, with a market structure characterized by "stable heavyweight indices and active technology growth" throughout May [1][2]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Economic Factors - The easing of Sino-US trade tensions during the May Day holiday has boosted global risk appetite, leading to a rapid appreciation of the RMB and a significant rebound in Chinese equity assets [1][4]. - The global stock markets are gradually returning to pre-"equal tariffs" levels, indicating two potential scenarios: resolution through negotiations or continued fiscal expansion by major economies if negotiations fail [2][4]. - Analysts highlight that the market is currently in a policy observation phase, with a focus on domestic demand and the potential impact of US Federal Reserve policies and LPR dynamics [5]. Group 2: Sector Focus and Investment Opportunities - AI+ is expected to be a key investment theme in May, driven by high capital expenditure in the AI sector from overseas firms and significant advancements in domestic technology industries [1][3]. - Analysts are optimistic about technology stocks in the 5-6 month period, considering factors such as the resolution of negative first-quarter reports and ongoing progress in AI applications and computing power [2][4]. - The focus on themes such as military, self-sufficiency, and new consumption sectors is emphasized, with a particular interest in AI applications, computing power, and consumer goods [3][4].

贸易战将扩展到娱乐产业 2025 年五一假期期间，全球风险资产延续修复行情，其中中国资产领涨 。 美股纳指累计上涨 3.05% ，恒生科技指数飙升 3.08% ， A50 期指 小幅上扬 1% ，离岸人民币兑美元升值至 7.2 关口 。 科技股引领全球反弹 。 微软财报超预期带动纳斯达克"科技七巨头"集体走强，半导体、云计算板块领涨。腾讯、阿里巴巴受益美科技股涨势，恒 生科技指数单日涨幅创三个月新高，短视频、跨境电商概念活跃。对于 A 股，业内人士认为明 日或高开后分化，看好银行、高速公路等红利资 产。 美方主动向中方传递信息希望谈起来 中方回应：正在评估 中方注意到美方高层多次表态，表示愿与中方就关税问题进行谈判。同时，美方近期通过相关方面多次主动向中方传递信息，希望与中方谈起来。对此， 中方正在进行评估。中方立场始终如一，打，奉陪到底；谈，大门敞开。关税战、贸易战是由美方单方发起的，美方想谈就应拿出谈的诚意，要在纠正错 误做法、取消单边加征关税等问题上做好准备，拿出行动。 特朗普宣布对进口电影征收 100% 关税 美国总统特朗普于 5 月 5 日宣布， 将授权美国商务部和美国贸易代表立即启动程序，对所有进 ...

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 5 May 2025 香港策略 Hong Kong Strategy 把握 5 月回调窗口，重点布局互联网和 AI 应用 Capitalizing on the May Dip: Internet & AI Application Focus 周林泓 Amber Zhou 李加惠 Jiahui Li, CFA amber.lh.zhou@htisec.com jh.li@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 上周，市场似乎淡化了关税影响，转而聚焦于美股科技股积极的业绩展望，这主要得益于微软和Meta持续增加其 2026财年的资本支出。受此提振，纳斯达克指数涨3.4%，带动恒生指数涨2.4%；相比之下，由于仅交易了前三天， 上证综指下跌0.5%，而创业板指则维持在平盘。我们一直认为，贸易战整体风险相对可控，其主要支撑在于新技术 所创造的需求有望缓解不断累积的债务压力。 ...