Core Insights - The article highlights the increasing popularity of the 10-year government bond ETF (511260) as a safe-haven asset amid market volatility, with significant net inflows and a growing scale [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The 10-year government bond ETF has seen a net inflow exceeding 6 billion yuan for 10 consecutive days, leading the market with a total scale surpassing 10 billion yuan as of June 19 [1]. - The ETF has consistently achieved high net asset values, with a one-year return of 6.02%, a three-year return of 15.04%, and a five-year return of 19.26% [2]. Group 2: Investment Characteristics - The 10-year government bond is considered a "risk-free return" benchmark, providing high safety, strong liquidity, and stable returns, making it a preferred choice for investors [1]. - The ETF offers T+0 trading, allowing for same-day buying and selling, which is advantageous in a high-volatility market [3]. - The ETF has low trading fees, enhancing capital efficiency [4]. - The ETF's holdings are transparent, with daily disclosures of the PCF list [5]. - Investors can use the ETF for collateralized repurchase agreements, allowing them to access funds for other investments while retaining the ability to redeem the ETF later [5]. Group 3: Strategic Value - According to Guosheng Securities, the 10-year government bond can optimize the risk-return profile of investment portfolios, as it has low or negative correlation with other assets like A-shares, U.S. stocks, and gold [6]. - In the current macroeconomic environment characterized by loose monetary policy and weak credit demand, the 10-year government bond is expected to perform better than other assets [6].

Core Insights - Traditional asset allocation strategies are facing significant challenges, prompting a shift towards new asset allocation strategies among various asset management institutions [1] - Experts emphasize the need for diversification in income sources, enhanced risk dispersion, and innovative strategies to adapt to low interest rates and potential market volatility [1] Changing Client Demands - There is a noticeable shift in investor demand towards low-volatility and stable products amid market fluctuations, with a growing interest in passive, global, and alternative investment products [1] - Retail clients, primarily from bank wealth management, exhibit a cautious risk preference influenced by their income sources, leading to a preference for deposit-like products [2] Strategies to Mitigate Volatility - Institutions are advised to adopt diversified asset allocation and long-term investment strategies to counteract potential market volatility [2] - The integration of global asset allocation capabilities and local expertise is crucial for building a robust asset management system that meets client demands for return certainty [2] Identifying New Market Opportunities - In the context of slowing global economic growth and increasing uncertainty, asset allocation strategies are shifting from "beta-driven" to "alpha-extraction," focusing on risk diversification and new market opportunities [3] - The decline in traditional fixed-income asset yields is pushing investors to explore a broader range of assets, including high-dividend equities and alternative investments like REITs and commodities [4] Development of Alternative Investment Strategies - Insurance asset management is rapidly evolving, with a significant focus on new alternative investment businesses, including asset securitization as a strategic pivot [5] - The stock-bond risk parity strategy is anticipated to be an attractive option in the current low-interest environment, leveraging the potential for recovery in the stock market [5]

当前，中国财富管理行业机遇与挑战并存。国联民生证券董事长、总裁葛小波在演讲中表示，中国财富 管理行业仍处于变革初期，人口结构和经济环境的变化导致居民收入结构中的财产性收入增速快于经营 性收入增速。 放眼海外，野村中国首席经济学家陆挺表示，过去一段时间，全球债市、股市发生巨大变化。与此同 时，中国制造业在全球占比已超过30%，在多个关键领域实现快速发展。（下转A02版） ● 本报记者 张舒琳 魏昭宇 6月19日，中国证券报主办的"破局 谋变 共生——2025金牛财富管理论坛"在上海举办，来自公募基金、 证券公司、银行理财、保险资管、第三方投顾平台、信托公司的资深人士齐聚一堂。 在全球经济格局深刻重塑的背景下，中国财富管理行业机遇与挑战并存。与会嘉宾认为，中国财富管理 行业正加速向买方投顾时代转型，"以客户利益为中心"成为共识；同时，面对低利率、高波动的市场环 境，多元化、全球化、灵活化的资产配置策略被视作破局核心路径。 买方投顾推动财富管理行业转型 此次论坛的第二场圆桌对话聚焦"资产配置新策略"，面对低利率、高波动的市场环境，来自保险资管、 银行理财、公募基金的资产配置专家分享了在新形势下的策略思考。国联资管总 ...

Market Overview - On June 19, the market showed no significant negative news, but both stocks and bonds adjusted, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 3400 points and the 10-year government bond yield approaching 1.65% [2] - The stock market exhibited strong defensive characteristics during the adjustment, with the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, and CSI Dividend down by 0.79%, 0.82%, and 0.65% respectively [2] - The technology sector in China remained supported, with the STAR 50 index only declining by 0.54%, while the Hong Kong Hang Seng Technology index fell sharply by 2.42% [2] Bond Market Dynamics - The 10-year government bond yield rose by 0.4 basis points to 1.64%, while the 30-year government bond yield fell by 0.2 basis points to 1.84% [2] - The trading of 50-year government bonds became active, with yields on new bonds declining by approximately 13 basis points since May 29, indicating a significant interest in long-duration bonds [6] - The market is exploring structural opportunities due to a lack of a main trend, with the 20-year and 50-year bonds becoming targets for yield spread extraction [6] International Influences - The Federal Reserve maintained its policy rate at 4.25-4.50% during the June meeting, with a more hawkish internal view, as the number of officials expecting no rate cuts this year increased from 4 to 7 [3] - Following the Fed's decision, the yields on 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose, although the adjustments were manageable, with neither yield breaking through 4.40% and 4.90% respectively [3] - The strengthening of the U.S. dollar has exerted pressure on precious metal prices, with gold prices entering a phase of fluctuation and decline, settling around 3370 USD per ounce [3] Domestic Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) continued to provide support, with a net injection of 842 billion yuan through reverse repos, despite a slight increase in funding rates [4] - The current funding rates indicate a marginal increase, with overnight rates closing at 1.60-1.65% [4] - The market's liquidity situation is expected to stabilize, with the potential for further net injections from the PBOC [4] Equity Market Trends - The overall equity market experienced a significant decline, with the Wind All A index down by 1.20% and a trading volume of 1.28 trillion yuan, reflecting a 591 billion yuan increase from the previous day [7] - The decline in the market is attributed to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly concerning Iran, which has heightened risk aversion among investors [7][8] - Despite the overall downturn, there remains a focus on technology sectors, with robotics and semiconductor stocks showing temporary gains [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of strategic asset allocation for families to optimize their wealth management and investment returns [1] Group 1: Industry Insights - The current market environment presents both challenges and opportunities for investors, particularly in the context of rising interest rates and inflation [1] - Diversification across various asset classes is highlighted as a key strategy to mitigate risks and enhance returns [1] Group 2: Company Analysis - Companies that adapt to changing market conditions and consumer preferences are more likely to succeed in the long term [1] - The article discusses specific sectors that are expected to perform well, including technology and renewable energy, due to their growth potential [1]

新华财经北京6月19日电 英国货币政策委员会（MPC）6月议息会议以6:3投票结果维持银行利率在4.25%，三名委员主张降息25 基点至4%。这一决策符合市场主流预期——会前利率期货显示，市场定价隐含年内降息50基点的概率达68%，但对本次会议维持 利率的定价概率高达82%。 关键政策逻辑： 通胀韧性与政策滞后效应：5月CPI同比升至3.4%（3月为2.6%），主要受能源价格反弹及regulatedprices上调推动，但核心通胀 3.5%较5月报告预期低0.2个百分点，显示需求端压力边际缓解。MPC认为，前期货币政策紧缩的滞后效应仍在持续挤压通胀，当 前维持限制性政策可确保通胀向2%目标可持续回落。 劳动力市场松动信号：5月就业人数单月减少10.9万，为2020年5月以来最大降幅，预示薪资增长压力将进一步缓和。私人部门平 均周薪增速从3月的5.5%降至4月的5.1%，高频数据显示年化增速维持在5%左右。 市场即时反应： 全球环境：地缘与贸易风险交织 中东冲突升级推动布伦特原油价格突破80美元/桶，欧洲天然气价格上涨11%，预计将推高英国CPI约0.3个百分点； 贸易政策不确定性指数仍处于历史高位，英国对美出 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses various asset classes that may withstand current global market pressures and geopolitical tensions, highlighting their potential for resilience and growth in uncertain times [2][3]. Group 1: Gold - Gold is characterized as a timeless safe-haven asset with a weak correlation to stocks and bonds, demonstrating strong risk-averse qualities during "black swan" events [6]. - Recent geopolitical tensions and economic sanctions have shifted market sentiment towards conservative and safe investments, increasing the appeal of gold [6]. - The investment logic for gold has evolved; previously, gold prices were inversely related to U.S. Treasury yields, but now, due to challenges to the "dollar hegemony," global demand for gold has surged, pushing prices higher [9]. - Investors are advised to adopt a strategic approach to gold investment, considering potential price corrections while gradually accumulating positions [9]. Group 2: Oil - Oil prices are influenced by supply-demand dynamics, geopolitical tensions, and financial market conditions, making it a critical industrial commodity [11][12]. - Historical analysis shows that geopolitical conflicts tend to boost oil prices in the short term, especially when they affect major oil-producing countries or transportation routes [13]. - Long-term oil price trends will still depend on supply-demand balance, and a stabilization of geopolitical tensions could lead to price corrections [13]. Group 3: Military Industry - The military sector is seen as a direct beneficiary of geopolitical conflicts, with its investment logic evolving beyond traditional safe-haven assets to include event-driven and long-term growth potential [15]. - Key factors driving military industry investments include national defense being a non-cyclical expenditure, technological spillover into civilian sectors, and the reshaping of global dynamics due to U.S.-China competition [15][16]. - The military sector is characterized by high volatility, necessitating careful consideration of order fulfillment and valuation when investing [16]. Group 4: Equity Class - Dividend-paying stocks are positioned as stabilizers in volatile market conditions, offering steady cash flows and strong profitability [18]. - The article highlights Hong Kong dividend stocks as particularly attractive, providing a combination of stable performance and sustainable dividends [18]. - Dividend assets are suggested as a solid long-term investment option, balancing risk and return in uncertain market environments [20].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Huazhong Fund has been awarded the "Golden Bull Award for Fund Advisory Institutions" by China Securities Journal, emphasizing its commitment to investor-centric services and long-term wealth growth [1] - The Golden Bull Award is recognized as one of the most authoritative awards in China's capital market, assessing advisory institutions based on compliance, governance structure, and risk control [1] - Huazhong Fund aims to transform investment value curves into asset curves for clients, prioritizing customer interests in its business design and focusing on personalized and professional advisory services [1] Group 2 - In asset allocation, Huazhong Fund targets managing volatility and seeks better holding experiences through diversified asset combinations and risk parity models, rather than solely relying on macroeconomic analysis [2] - The company emphasizes the integration of advisory and educational services, enhancing client service capabilities and promoting long-term investment and asset allocation concepts [2] - In 2024, Huazhong Fund plans to launch intelligent account diagnosis services, providing tailored account configuration results, while leveraging financial technology to enhance investor experience [2]

Core Insights - The 2025 Wind Star Financial Advisor Annual Selection has reached its halfway point, with thousands of elite participants from various wealth management institutions competing in multiple tasks, showcasing their investment skills and strategies [1][2] - The competition highlights a preference for defensive and stable assets, particularly gold ETFs, reflecting participants' focus on risk management amid market uncertainties [2] Group 1: Competition Overview - As of June 15, the top 50 rankings in the virtual trading segment have been released, with participants demonstrating exceptional balance in attack and defense through metrics like return rate, volatility, and maximum drawdown [1] - The monthly active star list for April and May has been published, recognizing outstanding performers in the competition [1] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Participants are employing diversified strategies that balance short-term risk aversion with mid-term growth objectives, indicating a professional approach to asset allocation in complex market conditions [2] - The top performers, such as Sun Chenghao from Jianghai Securities and Yuan Baoliang from Bank of Beijing, have demonstrated exceptional investment and asset allocation capabilities [3] Group 3: Detailed Strategy Analysis - Sun Chenghao's strategy focuses on global assets, utilizing high-flexibility asset allocations like Hong Kong and US stock index funds for excess returns, while also incorporating dividend products and gold index funds for stability [4] - The committee noted a strong focus on gold ETFs among participants, with a diversified holding structure to mitigate liquidity and operational risks [5] - Yuan Baoliang's strategy emphasizes a defensive core with liquidity-focused funds, while also targeting high-growth sectors like technology and pharmaceuticals in the Hong Kong market [6] Group 4: Platform and Tools - The AI+ Wind Investment Advisor Terminal is designed as a comprehensive wealth management platform for investment advisors, integrating various business scenarios and providing digital solutions for wealth management [7]

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 06 月 18 日 存单的波动依然不大。1-19 日累计发行规模达到 2.5 万亿元之上，基本追平今年前五个月 2.8 万亿元的月 均值，与本月 4.2 万亿元的到期规模仅剩 1.7 万亿元左右的缺口。据 19 日的发行计划，1 个月国股行存单定价 在 1.60-1.62%，9 个月至 1 年期国股行品种定价在 1.63-1.65%，未体现出提价压力，季末银行负债端较为乐 观。 [Table_Title] 资产配置日报：涨势依旧 现券交易主线继续围绕央行动态。早间陆家嘴会议开幕式上，央行宣布八项重磅金融政策，内容涉及面较 广，其中与债市关联性较高的政策是设立银行间市场交易报告库，高频汇集并系统分析银行间债券等金融子市场 交易数据。类似操作在 2024 年已有预演，因此，政策出炉并未对市场定价产生过多影响。不过，市场满怀期待 的"央行重启买债"及"国债缴准"并未在会议上被提及，这也使得债市行情略有减速，各期限国债活跃品种多 小幅上行，利差保护较足的老券、政金债、地方债品种收益率反而延续了下行趋势。 | | | 复盘与思考: 6 月 18 日，股 ...