Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides comprehensive analyses and outlooks for various sectors including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, commodities, and agricultural products, offering investment suggestions based on market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and macro - economic factors [1][2][3] Summary by Directory Daily Selections - **Nickel**: The expectation of tightened nickel ore supply has strengthened, driving the price up, yet the short - term reality remains weak and the medium - term fundamentals are loose. The price is likely to oscillate and recover in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 124,000 - 132,000 [2] - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: Despite overseas supply contraction, the cost side is weakening, and the supply - demand outlook is still poor. It is expected to be weak in the short term. Strategies include short - term anti - arbitrage for EG5 - 9 and holding the seller position of EG2605 - C - 4100 [3] - **Coking Coal**: The spot price shows mixed trends, and the futures have rebounded from oversold levels. Short - term speculation on the rebound is recommended, and going long on the coking coal 2605 contract on dips is advised [4] - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar price maintains a bearish pattern, and the upside space for the domestic sugar price's bottom - rebound is limited. A bearish view on the rebound is maintained [5] - **Silver**: Driven by funds during the holiday season, the price is strong. However, the weakening of physical delivery demand and the increase in domestic inventory may ease the bullish sentiment. It is recommended to hold long positions and reduce or lock positions on rallies before the Spring Festival [6] Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - The major stock indices fluctuated slightly on Tuesday, with pro - cyclical sectors performing well. The four major stock index futures contracts mostly rose with deep basis discounts. The market may oscillate in a range due to unclear main trends and insufficient trading volume. It is advisable to observe cautiously [7][8][9] Bond Futures - Bond futures closed higher across the board. The capital market remains loose, and the sentiment in the bond market has improved. It is recommended to go long on the T - contract on dips, and participate in the positive arbitrage and basis widening strategies for the 2603 contract [10][11][12] Precious Metals - After a mid - session correction, precious metals rebounded strongly and closed higher due to better - than - expected US economic growth in Q3, a falling US dollar, and Trump's call for interest rate cuts. It is recommended to hold long positions in the long run, and for silver, reduce or lock positions on rallies before the Spring Festival. For platinum and palladium, buy on dips [13][15][16] Shipping Index (European Line) - The SCFIS and SCFI indices showed an upward trend. The futures market oscillated downward, and it is expected to be in a short - term oscillatory pattern [18] Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The domestic spot discount has widened, and global inventories have increased. Although the price is strong due to the structural imbalance of overseas inventories, the terminal demand is significantly suppressed. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, with the main contract focusing on the support at 93,500 - 94,000 [18][21][22] - **Alumina**: The warehouse receipts have been decreasing, and the price oscillates around the cash cost at a low level. It is expected to continue this pattern, and short - term traders can go long on dips or sell out - of - the - money put options [23][24][25] - **Aluminum**: The price oscillates at a high level, and the spot discount has widened. With macro - level support and fundamental pressure, it is expected to oscillate widely in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 21,800 - 22,600. It is advisable to go long on dips [25][27][28] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The social inventory is slowly decreasing, and the price is strong. With strong cost support and weakening demand, it is expected to oscillate in a high - level range, with the main contract reference range of 20,800 - 21,600. An arbitrage strategy of going long on AD03 and short on AL03 is recommended [29][30][31] - **Zinc**: The zinc ore TC has stabilized, and the social inventory has continued to decrease. The price oscillates, and it is recommended to pay attention to the support at 22,850 - 22,950 for the main contract and continue to hold the cross - market anti - arbitrage position [31][33][34] - **Tin**: The fundamentals remain strong, and the price oscillates at a high level. It is recommended to hold long positions and buy on dips [35][38][39] - **Nickel**: Similar to the daily selection, the expectation of tightened ore supply has strengthened, but the short - term reality is weak and the medium - term is loose. The main contract reference range is 124,000 - 132,000 [39][41][42] - **Stainless Steel**: The price oscillates strongly, with a game between strong expectations and weak reality. It is expected to oscillate and adjust, with the main contract reference range of 12,500 - 13,200 [43][44][45] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures sentiment is still strong, and the fundamentals are in a state of both supply and demand growth. The price may continue to test high levels and then retrace. The main contract reference range is 118,000 - 122,000 [46][47][49] - **Polysilicon**: The spot price has declined slightly, and the futures oscillate. The demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the production cut and the acceptance of price adjustments [50][51][52] - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot price has stabilized, and the futures price oscillates and rebounds. The supply and demand are both slightly decreasing, and it is expected to be in a low - level oscillatory pattern, with attention paid to the implementation of production cuts [52][53][54] Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The steel price oscillates in a range. The production has decreased, and the inventory has been reduced. It is expected that the rebar will oscillate between 3,000 - 3,200 and the hot - rolled coil between 3,150 - 3,350. Some arbitrage strategies are also recommended [54][55][56] - **Iron Ore**: The price may rebound slightly due to limited decline space for molten iron and the expectation of steel mills' restocking. It is recommended to conduct short - term range trading for the 05 contract, with the reference range of 760 - 810 [57][58][59] - **Coking Coal**: The same as the daily selection, the spot price shows mixed trends, and the futures have rebounded from oversold levels. It is recommended to go long on the coking coal 2605 contract on dips [60][61][62] - **Coke**: The third - round price cut in December has been implemented, and the price is expected to be weak. It is recommended to take profit on the long positions of the coke 2605 contract [63][64][66] - **Silicon Iron**: The production cut has alleviated the supply - demand contradiction, and the cost is stable. It is expected to oscillate between 5,400 - 5,650 [67][68][69] - **Silicon Manganese**: The high inventory suppresses the price rebound, but the cost provides support. It is recommended to try short - selling when the price rebounds above the Ningxia's current cost, with short - term operations [70][71][72] Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The US soybean has support around 1050, and the domestic soybean meal market is loose. The downside space is limited, and it is recommended to pay attention to the performance around 2,750 for the main contract [74][75][76] - **Hogs**: Driven by demand, the price is stable and slightly strong. The futures may oscillate strongly in the short term, with support around 11,000 [77][78][79] - **Corn**: The price is under pressure, and the trading is inactive. The short - term price may be weak, but the decline space is limited. Attention should be paid to the selling sentiment and policy releases [80][81] - **Sugar**: The same as the daily selection, the international raw sugar price is bearish, and the domestic upside space is limited. A bearish view on the rebound is maintained [82][83][84] - **Cotton**: The US cotton oscillates at the bottom, and the upward trend of domestic cotton has slowed down. The domestic cotton is expected to oscillate strongly in a range, but the upward momentum is limited [85][86][87] - **Eggs**: The price is stable or falling, the supply is still loose, and the near - term contract is expected to oscillate weakly [88][89] - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil is expected to strengthen, soybean oil may oscillate narrowly, and rapeseed oil's spot price fluctuates with the futures, with the basis oscillating narrowly [90][91][92] - **Jujubes**: The price continues to test the bottom and may rebound if the market sentiment is boosted during the Spring Festival. Otherwise, it will continue to be under pressure [93][94] - **Apples**: The price has risen slightly, and it is recommended to take profit on long positions and pay attention to the inventory reduction rhythm [95] Energy and Chemicals - **PX**: The medium - term supply - demand outlook is tight, and it is favored by funds. However, considering the possible polyester production cut, it is recommended to reduce long positions on rallies and take a long - term low - buying strategy [96][97] - **PTA**: Driven by the raw material PX, but with limited self - drive, it is recommended to reduce long positions on rallies and take a long - term low - buying strategy [98][99] - **Short Fiber**: The supply - demand outlook is weak, and it follows the raw material price. It is recommended to take the same strategy as PTA for the unilateral position and shrink the processing margin on rallies [100] - **Bottle Chip**: The cost is strong, and the supply is expected to increase, compressing the processing margin. It is recommended to take the same strategy as PTA for the unilateral position, shrink the processing margin on rallies, and hold the seller position of PR2602 - P - 5500 [101][102] - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: The same as the daily selection, it is expected to be weak in the short term. Strategies include short - term anti - arbitrage for EG5 - 9 and holding the seller position of EG2605 - C - 4100 [103] - **Pure Benzene**: The supply - demand pattern is weak, but there is a possibility of improvement in the future. It is expected to oscillate between 5,300 - 5,600 [104] - **Styrene**: The supply - demand outlook is weak, and the rebound space is limited. It is expected to oscillate between 6,300 - 6,700 [106][107] - **LLDPE**: The supply and demand are both weak, and the market sentiment is pessimistic. It is recommended to wait and see [108] - **PP**: The basis has weakened, and the trading has improved. Attention should be paid to the expansion of PDH profit [108][109] - **Methanol**: The futures oscillate narrowly. The port may see a supply - demand balance shift in Q1 next year, and the mainland is expected to be stable. It is recommended to pay attention to the contraction of MTO05 [110] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply - demand pressure remains, and the inventory is high. The price is expected to be bearish in the short term [111][112] - **PVC**: The supply - demand contradiction is prominent, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to continue to oscillate in a range with limited rebound [113][114] - **Soda Ash**: The production is at a high level, and the supply - demand pattern is bearish. It is recommended to short on rallies [115][116] - **Glass**: The spot price is under pressure. The 05 contract is expected to continue to be weak at the bottom before positive drivers emerge. It is recommended to wait and see [115][117] - **Natural Rubber**: The price oscillates in a range due to the game between supply and demand factors. It is recommended to wait and see [117][118][119] - **Synthetic Rubber**: The cost oscillates, and the supply is high. The BR is expected to oscillate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the pressure at 11,200 - 11,300 for the BR2602 contract [119][120][121]

晨会纪要（2025/12/24） 编辑人 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 崔健 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.12.24） 固定收益研究 成交规模增长，信用利差走阔——信用债周报 公司研究 享西部资源红利，乘铜市景气东风——西部矿业（601168）深度报告 行业研究 美国通胀缓和，金价获得支撑——金属行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 6 晨会纪要（2025/12/24） 中央和地方持续积极优化房地产政策，托举政策持续发力，积极释放刚性和改善性住房需求，对推动房地 产止跌回稳发挥了积极的作用。尽管当前房地产市场还处在新旧模式转换时期，但随着稳楼市各项政策显 效，房地产市场继续朝着止跌回稳的方向迈进。基于城市发展正从大规模增量扩张阶段转向存量提质增效 为主的阶段这一论断，下阶段的目标是要积极构建房地产发展新模式，坚持长短结合、标本兼治，持续用 力推动房地产市场高质量发展，后续政策出台的节奏和力度值得期待。地产债方面，销售复苏进程将对债 券估值 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Jiuding New Materials (SZ002201) experienced a significant stock price increase, reaching a limit up of 10.29 yuan, with a rise of 10.05%, and a total market capitalization of 6.705 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The company's Q3 report showed a substantial net profit increase of 180% and a revenue growth of 36.29%, indicating effective cost control and a 50.99% improvement in cash flow, which supported the stock price surge [2] - The company has actively expanded its wind power business by establishing a subsidiary with a registered capital of 100 million yuan focused on blade production, aligning with the growing interest in renewable energy [2] - Governance structure optimization measures, such as the cancellation of the supervisory board and amendments to the articles of association, reflect a modernization direction that enhances decision-making efficiency and aligns with international standards [2] - Technical analysis indicators like MACD and BOLL may attract more technical investors if they show bullish signals, and significant capital inflow on the day could also drive the stock price up [2]

2025年12月24日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：印尼政策担忧，盘面情绪性补涨 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：基本面供需双弱，印尼镍矿消息扰动 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：下游材料存涨价预期，偏强震荡 | 4 | | 工业硅：逢高做空 | 6 | | 多晶硅：加大开仓限制，关注情绪面波动 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 24 日 【宏观及行业新闻】 1）9 月 12 日钢联资讯：因违反林业许可证规定，印尼林业工作组接管 PT Weda Bay Nickel 超过 148 公顷矿区。印尼政府将负责管理该区域，并对该公司处以罚款。该矿区位于北马鲁古省哈马黑拉岛， 今年已通过的 RKAB 镍矿批复量级达 4200 万湿吨，其中包括 1000 万吨湿法矿，总矿区占地 4.7 万公顷， 包含 15 个矿点，印尼林业工作组接管区域占总矿区面积 0.3%，预计影响镍矿产量约 600 金属吨/月。 2）据外媒报道，中国暂停了一项针对从俄罗斯进口的铜和镍的非官方补贴。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that copper supply is expected to remain tight through 2026, driven by both macroeconomic factors and supply constraints [2][3]. - LME copper prices have reached historical highs, with a peak of $12,159.5 per ton, marking a year-to-date increase of over 37%, potentially the highest annual gain since 2010 [2]. - The demand for copper is significantly boosted by the rapid development of new energy sources and data centers, with electric vehicles being the largest incremental source of copper demand [3]. Group 2 - The copper sector in the A-share market has seen a collective profit increase, with companies reporting a total net profit of 69.005 billion yuan for the first three quarters, a year-on-year growth of 46.18% [4]. - Several copper concept stocks have experienced substantial price increases, with an average rise of 8.58% in December, and seven stocks have seen gains exceeding 10% [4][6]. - Institutions have shown heightened interest in copper concept stocks, with multiple companies receiving significant attention from investors, particularly HaiLiang Co. and Chujiang New Materials [8][9]. Group 3 - HaiLiang Co. has reported advancements in copper foil technology, achieving industry-leading products that cater to solid-state batteries and other emerging applications [7]. - Chujiang New Materials has demonstrated remarkable profit growth, with a net profit increase of 2,089.49% year-on-year, and has expanded its copper-based materials into new fields such as 5G communication [7].

周二，在贸易动荡、供应紧张以及对长期需求乐观情绪主导下，连续上涨近1个月的伦铜期货突破每吨 12000美元，这一关键工业金属有望创下自2009年以来的最大年度涨幅。投资者通常将铜视为全球工业 活动的"晴雨表"，目前市场普遍预期，随着交易商为"抢跑"潜在的关税政策而将更多铜运往美国，铜价 将进一步攀升。 江西铜业（600362）股份(00358)：江西铜业作为国内铜冶炼龙头，阴极铜年产能达210万吨，铜业务收 入占比超70%。11月30日晚间公告，公司分别于当地时间2025年11月23日及11月28日向伦敦证券交易所 上市公司SolGold Plc("索尔黄金")董事会提交了两项非约束性现金要约。最新一项非约束性现金要约拟 以每股26便士(约合人民币2.43元)的价格，收购目标公司全部股份。 分析指出，新一轮铜价上涨的行情主要受供需失衡、贸易摩擦和新能源、AI产业的强劲需求推动。 铜价近几个月来持续攀升，市场对全球供应趋紧的担忧日益加剧。美洲、非洲和亚洲的矿山相继出现停 产，供应端将出现重大缺口。德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)警告称，全球最大几家矿商的产量今年将下降 3%，且2026年可能继续下滑。该 ...

Industry Overview - Copper futures have surpassed $12,000 per ton, marking a potential record annual increase since 2009, driven by trade tensions, supply constraints, and optimistic long-term demand outlook [1] - The recent surge in copper prices is primarily fueled by supply-demand imbalances, trade frictions, and strong demand from the renewable energy and AI sectors [1] - Concerns over tightening global supply are escalating, with major mining operations in the Americas, Africa, and Asia facing shutdowns, leading to significant supply gaps [1] - Deutsche Bank warns that production from the largest global miners is expected to decline by 3% this year, with further reductions anticipated in 2026 [1] - The market is currently experiencing a notable supply shortage, with 2025 projected to be a year of severe supply disruptions due to operational challenges at several large mines [1] Demand Drivers - The strategic importance of copper in energy transition is increasing, with high growth rates in investments for power grid and data center construction, further boosting copper demand [2] - The demand for copper in global new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, wind power, and AI is expected to reach between 3.8 million to 4 million tons this year [2] - Major Wall Street institutions, including Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Citigroup, maintain an optimistic outlook for copper prices, with Citigroup suggesting prices could reach $15,000 under a bullish scenario [2] - Citic Securities anticipates that the dual narrative of "copper hoarding in the U.S." and "domestic production cuts" will accelerate, potentially widening the supply gap by 60% [2] Company Insights - Jiangxi Copper Co., as a leading copper smelting company in China, has an annual production capacity of 2.1 million tons of cathode copper, with over 70% of its revenue derived from copper business [3] - Zijin Mining's Tibet Julong Copper Mine Phase II project is expected to be completed by the end of 2025, significantly enhancing the company's copper supply capacity [3] - Zijin Mining reported a revenue of 254.2 billion yuan for the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 10.33%, with net profit rising by 55.45% [3] - Luoyang Molybdenum Co. achieved a revenue of 145.5 billion yuan in the first three quarters, with a net profit of 14.28 billion yuan, marking a 72.61% year-on-year increase [4] - Luoyang Molybdenum Co. produced 543,400 tons of copper in the first three quarters, a 14.14% increase year-on-year, achieving a historical high for the period [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the positive cycle between product strength and brand power, illustrated by the sales success of the Changan Qiyuan A06, which showcases strong technical capabilities and market trust [4] - The A06 has achieved over 30,000 monthly sales, supported by the reliability of its state-owned enterprise backing and accumulated market reputation, positioning it as a "national choice" [4] - The newly launched Qiyuan Q05 has also shown strong performance, with over 18,000 orders and more than 7,000 deliveries within its first month, highlighting the competitive strength of Changan Qiyuan's product matrix [4] Group 2 - Changan's electric vehicle segment is on a clear growth trajectory, with a target of reaching 500,000 cumulative sales in just over two years, reflecting the rapid market acceptance of its products [4] - The A06's success is not only contributing to its own brand but also serves as a key engine for Changan's transformation into a smart, low-carbon mobility technology company [4]

Group 1 - The article provides an authoritative interpretation of the Central Economic Work Conference, highlighting discussions among top experts on current economic hotspots, policy directions, growth paths, and reform priorities for China's economic development from 2025 to 2026 [2][3] - Key speakers include prominent figures such as Liu Fengliang, Zou Jingxian, Wang Yiming, Mao Zhenhua, Shen Jianguang, Zhang Xiaojing, and Li Daokui, who are all influential in the field of macroeconomics [3] Group 2 - The 2026 macroeconomic outlook indicates that monetary policies in the US, Europe, and Japan will continue to move towards neutral interest rates, with geopolitical risks gradually receding, leading to lower global economic uncertainty compared to 2025 [5][6] - The discussion emphasizes that the US will focus on balancing policy, technology, and Federal Reserve actions, while Europe is expected to experience moderate recovery and Japan will face significant challenges [5][6] Group 3 - The article discusses strategies for global asset allocation in 2026, focusing on selecting high-cost performance assets across various markets, including US stocks, US bonds, A-shares, and Hong Kong stocks [8] - It highlights the importance of balancing risk and return while identifying structural opportunities in sectors such as AI, new energy, and pharmaceuticals [8] Group 4 - The textile and apparel industry strategy for 2026 is outlined, focusing on global consumption trends, export recovery, and the selection of stable growth leaders amid differentiated domestic demand [11] - Key insights include understanding demand elasticity and performance recovery in the textile and apparel sector [11] Group 5 - The article presents an investment map for the pharmaceutical sector on the Beijing Stock Exchange, emphasizing the high potential of "specialized, refined, distinctive, and innovative" companies [13] - It suggests a dual approach focusing on "innovation-led" and "steady growth" strategies, with a particular interest in innovative drugs, high-end medical devices, and robust generic drugs [13] - Notably, 42.86% of the companies in the pharmaceutical sector are classified as national-level "little giants," indicating a strong presence of specialized firms [13]

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have issued opinions to promote the large-scale development of solar thermal power, aiming to support the construction of a new power system and enhance the investment and financing cycle in the sector [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Measures - The opinions propose a series of policy measures to address the bottlenecks in solar thermal power development, emphasizing problem and goal orientation [2]. - It includes the issuance of real estate investment trusts (REITs) and asset-backed securities to revitalize existing assets [1]. - The policies aim to strengthen land and policy support for solar thermal projects, ensuring a coordinated development layout for renewable energy [1][2]. Group 2: Development Goals - The overall goal is to actively promote the construction of solar thermal power projects, with a target of achieving a total installed capacity of approximately 15 million kilowatts by 2030 [1]. - The cost of electricity generated from solar thermal power is expected to be comparable to that of coal power by 2030 [1]. - The industry aims to achieve international leadership in technology and fully autonomous control, fostering a market-oriented and industrialized development [1]. Group 3: Market and Application - The opinions highlight the dual functions of solar thermal power as both a peak-shaving power source and long-duration energy storage, which can support the power system [2]. - It emphasizes the potential of solar thermal power to replace traditional energy sources safely and reliably, contributing to the construction of a new power system [2]. - The solar thermal power industry chain is extensive, and its large-scale development is expected to become a new growth point for China's renewable energy sector [2].