市场主流观点汇总 2025/5/20 报告说明 关 迪 此报告，意在客观反映行业内期货公司、证券公司对大宗商品各品种的 研究观点，追踪热点品种，分析市场投资情绪，总结投资驱动逻辑等。 本报告不构成个人投资建议，仅供公司内部使用，仅作参考之用。 报告中策略观点和投资逻辑是基于所采纳的机构当周公开发布的研究报 告，对于各期货品种的多空观点、交易逻辑进行整理加工汇总而成，收 盘价数据选择上周五，周度涨跌为上周五较前一周五收盘价变动幅度。 | 【行情数据】 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 资产类别 | 细分品种 | 收盘价 | | 周度涨跌情况 | | | | | 数据时点 | | 2025/5/16 | | | 2025/5/12 至 | 2025/5/16 | | | | 乙二醇 | 4461.00 | 乙二醇 | | | 5.74% | | | | 铁矿石 | 736.50 | 铁矿石 | | | 4.60% | | | | PTA | 4798.00 | PTA | | | 4.19% | | | | PV ...

全球玉米市场面临增产困局，6-8月北美作物带或迎极端天气考验，若预报天气兑现，玉米单产损失可 能超预期？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

今日(5月19日)24时起，油价下调！ 国际能源署(IEA)5月15日发布的月度石油市场报告显示，今年剩余时间全球石油需求增速将放缓至65万 桶/日，低于一季度99万桶/日的增速；预计今年全球石油需求增长平均增速为74万桶/日，2026年全球石 油需求增长平均增速为76万桶/日，均较上月估计值有所上调。 下一次调价窗口将在2025年6月3日24时开启。展望后市，隆众资讯分析师李彦认为，尽管市场对原油需 求前景的预期有所好转，但美国与伊朗的谈判取得重大进展，美伊局势有望缓和，或提振原油供应。同 时，全球经济和需求在短期内难以显著改善。综合来看，下一轮成品油调价下调的概率较大。 民生证券认为，尽管"欧佩克+"在5月初表示将继续超预期增产，但在国际局势影响下，油价在经历回落 之后迅速回升。考虑到"欧佩克+"后续增产的影响将逐步显现，目前油价上行空间相对有限。预计短期 内油价仍将在60美元/桶至65美元/桶的区间进行宽幅震荡。 国家发展改革委5月19日发布的通知显示，自5月19日24时起，国内汽、柴油价格(标准品，下同)每吨分 别降低230元和220元。 卓创资讯（301299）数据显示，本轮成品油零售限价下调落地后 ...

本次下调落实后，2 0 2 5年以来，国内成品油零售限价已达5次下调，国内多地9 2 #汽油将有望 自 2 1 年 底 之 后 重 新 进 入 " 6 元 时 代 " ， 0 # 柴 油 亦 有 望 进 入 2 1 年 以 来 的 低 位 水 平 ， 部 分 省 份 进 入" 6 . 5元"以内。 作 者丨费心懿 编 辑丨骆一帆 国家发展改革委今日消息，根据近期国际市场油价变化情况，按照现行成品油价格形成机制， 2 0 2 5年5月1 9日2 4时汽、柴油零售限价分别下调2 3 0元/吨、2 2 0元/吨，折升价9 2 #汽油、9 5 # 汽油、0 #柴油分别下调0 . 1 8元、0 . 1 9元、0 . 1 9元。 消费者用油成本减少， 以油箱容量为5 0升的家用轿车为例，加满一箱9 2 #汽油将少花 9 元 。 以 月 跑 2 0 0 0 公 里 ， 百 公 里 平 均 油 耗 8L 的 燃 油 汽 车 为 例 ， 下 次 调 价 窗 口 开 启 前 （ 6 月 3 日 2 4 时 ） ， 单 辆 车 的 燃 油 成 本 将 减 少 1 4 元 左 右 。 物 流 行 业 ， 以 月 跑 1 0 0 0 ...

板块观点汇总 伊朗地缘弱化,原油继续领跌 | 品种 | 中期结构 | 短期结构 | 小时周期策略 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 偏空 | 偏空 | 空单持有 | | EB | 偏空 | 偏多 | 观望等短期破位 | | PX | 偏空 | 偏多 | 观望等短期破位 | | PTA | 偏空 | 偏多 | 观望等短期破位 | | PP | 偏空 | 切换验证 | 寻反抽结束信号试空 | | 塑料 | 偏空 | 偏多 | 观望等短期破位 | | 甲醇 | 偏空 | 偏多 | 观望等短期破位 | | EG | 偏空 | 偏多 | 观望 | | 橡胶 | 偏空 | 震荡 | 观望 | | 烧碱 | 偏空 | 偏多 | 观望 | | 尿素 | 震荡 | 偏多 | 观望 | (一) 原油: 逻辑:OPEC+加速增产带来的中期过剩预期使中期下跌趋势难改, 短期伊朗高层松开后"新伊核协议"呼之欲出,短期潜地缘利多的大 幅减弱与解除制裁后伊朗原油供应增量成为短期下行驱动。 日度技术追踪:原油日线级别中期下跌结构,小时级别短期下跌 结构。今日增仓回落,延续下跌路径。上方短期压力位参考465 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The report analyzes multiple commodities including asphalt, crude oil, copper, etc., and provides corresponding market trend forecasts and investment suggestions based on their supply - demand fundamentals, macro - economic factors, and trade policies [3][5][10] - For example, it is expected that asphalt will fluctuate at a high level and suggests going long on the 09 - 12 spread; crude oil has downward pressure; the copper market is expected to be volatile in the short - term and bullish in the long - term [3][5][10] Summary by Commodity Asphalt - Supply: This week, the asphalt operating rate rose 5.6 percentage points to 34.4%, 7.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The expected output in May is 231.8 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1.3% and a year - on - year increase of 1.3% [3] - Demand: The operating rates of most downstream industries rose, but the actual demand still needs to recover due to factors such as rainfall and capital constraints [3] - Market trend: With both supply and demand increasing, it is expected to fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread as it enters the peak season [3] Crude Oil - Price movement: After falling to near the previous low on May 6, the price rebounded due to improved macro - sentiment and US sanctions on entities engaged in Iranian oil trade [4] - Supply: OPEC+ started to gradually relax the production cut plan in April, increasing the daily supply by 411,000 barrels in May. Eight countries will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June. There is a large supply pressure in the future [5] - Demand: The most panicked period of the global trade war has passed, but the pessimistic expectation of its impact on the economy has not been fully reversed. It is currently the off - season for global crude oil consumption [5] Copper - Supply: The supply is tight, with a tight situation in the mining end and high smelter costs. Although copper production has increased, the cost pressure on smelters is obvious [10] - Demand: Downstream demand shows resilience, but there is resistance to high prices. The demand in May may be slightly weaker than that in April [10] - Market trend: The market is expected to be volatile in the short - term with limited up and down space, and bullish in the long - term [10] Other Commodities - **PP**: It is expected to rebound slightly as the market sentiment is boosted by Sino - US trade negotiations, although there are supply and demand challenges such as restricted exports and slow downstream recovery [14] - **Plastic**: It is expected to rebound slightly. The start - up rate has increased, but downstream demand has not fully recovered [15][16] - **PVC**: It may continue to rebound. The start - up rate has decreased slightly, and the market has been boosted by improved macro - sentiment [17] - **Grease**: The short - term market is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to consider buying on dips after a fall [18][19] - **Soybean Meal**: The space for further weakening is limited. The domestic supply is relatively loose, and the demand is good [20] - **Rebar**: The price may continue to fall due to factors such as high supply, weak demand, and weak cost support [21][22] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The price may continue to be under pressure if demand remains weak and supply pressure increases [23] - **Urea**: The short - term trend is still strong, but the up and down space is limited under the macro - price - stabilizing policy, and the export policy needs to be clarified [24][25]

【PP市场动态：下游开工下降，价格涨跌互现】PP 下游整体开工环比继续下降，处于历年同期偏低水 平。其中塑编开工率环比降 0.2 个百分点至 44.8%，塑编订单稳定，略高于前两年同期。 美国加征关税 不利 PP 下游制品出口，且聚丙烯上游丙烷进口受限。新增东莞巨正源、绍兴三圆等检修装置，PP 企业 开工率跌至 82%左右，标品拉丝生产比例下降至 24%左右。 上周末累库幅度较大，工作日正常去库， 石化库存处于近年同期偏低水平。伊朗核协议或将签署，加之 OPEC+增产步伐加快，美国原油库存超 预期增加，原油价格下跌。 供应上埃克森惠州两套装置投产放量，近期检修装置增加较多，下游恢复 缓慢，塑编开工继续下降，新增订单有限。中美贸易谈判提振市场情绪，现货交投好转，价格上涨，市 场预期下游需求改善，预计 PP 小幅反弹。 期货方面，PP2509 合约减仓震荡下行，最低价 7134 元/ 吨，最高价 7189 元/吨，最终收盘于 7161 元/吨，在 20 日均线上方，涨幅 0.18%，持仓量减少 5927 手 至 419929 手。 现货方面，PP 各地区现货价格多数上涨，拉丝报 7130 - 7410 元/吨。 ...

IEA月报：预测欧佩克+2025年将增加31万桶/日，2026年将增加15万桶/日。 ...

期 货 研 究 2025 年 05 月 15 日 白糖：国内持续增产 周小球 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 zhouxiaoqiu@gtjas.com | | 价格 | 同比 | | 价差 | 同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原糖价格（美分/磅） | 18.08 | -0.1 | 59 价差（元/吨） | 174 | -43 | | 主流现货价格（元/吨） | 6200 | 20 | 15 价差（元/吨） | 104 | 9 | | 期货主力价格（元/吨） | 5906 | 53 | 主流现货基差（元/吨） | 294 | -33 | 资料来源：同花顺，国泰君安期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 高频信息：巴西压榨进度同比趋缓；USDA 预计 25/26 榨季巴西产量增长 2%；截至 4 月底，印度 24/25 榨季产糖 2569 万吨；巴西 3 月出口 185 万吨，同比减少 30.7%。中国 1-3 月常规进口、糖浆和预拌粉进口 大幅下降。 国内市场：CAOC 预计 24/25 榨季国内食糖产量为 1115 万吨，消费量为 1580 万吨，进口量 ...

Market Performance - The three major U.S. indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average declining for the second consecutive trading day, down 89.37 points or 0.21% to 42051.06 points [1] - The Nasdaq Composite rose by 136.73 points or 0.72% to 19146.81 points, while the S&P 500 increased by 6.03 points or 0.1% to 5892.58 points [1] - Notable stock movements included Tesla rising 4% for six consecutive trading days, Google A increasing by 3.6%, and Nvidia gaining 4% with a weekly increase of 16% [1] European Market - European indices experienced declines, with Germany's DAX30 down 100.14 points or 0.42% to 23519.45 points, and the UK's FTSE 100 down 21.07 points or 0.24% to 8581.85 points [1] - The French CAC40 index fell by 37.04 points or 0.47% to 7836.79 points, while the Spanish IBEX35 rose by 70.67 points or 0.51% to 13842.27 points [1] Asian Market - The Nikkei 225 index in Japan decreased by 0.14%, while the KOSPI index in South Korea rose over 1.2% and the Indonesian Composite Index increased by over 2% [2] Currency and Commodities - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.03% to 101.037, with fluctuations against major currencies including the euro and the British pound [2] - Spot gold fell by 2.14% to $3180.90 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures dropped by 1.91% to $3185.70 per ounce [2][3] - WTI crude oil prices decreased by 0.8% to approximately $63 per barrel, ending a four-day increase [3] Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin declined by 0.59% to $103,561.4, while Ethereum dropped over 3% to $2,595.77 [3] Macro News - The U.S. and Qatar signed economic and military cooperation agreements valued at over $243.5 billion, including significant purchases from Boeing and defense contracts [4] - OPEC+ members increased oil production by only 25,000 barrels per day in April, significantly below the planned increase of 138,000 barrels per day [4] Company News - Apple is developing a groundbreaking eye-tracking feature for its Vision Pro headset, which will allow users to scroll through interfaces using eye movements [7] - Bridgewater Associates significantly increased its holdings in Alibaba by over 540,000 shares, marking a 21-fold increase, and also built positions in JD.com and gold ETFs [8]