Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50% for the fourth consecutive meeting, aligning with market expectations [3] - The Fed's dot plot indicates that interest rates are expected to remain unchanged in the next meeting, with two rate cuts anticipated by the end of the year, bringing the rate to 3.75%-4.00% [3] - Economic growth expectations have been downgraded while inflation expectations have been raised, indicating ongoing stagflation risks [3][4] Group 2 - Recent indicators show that U.S. economic activity continues to expand steadily, with low unemployment and a stable labor market, although inflation remains "slightly high" [4] - The Fed is closely monitoring risks to its dual mandate and is prepared to adjust monetary policy as needed [4] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as the Israel-Palestine conflict, have not significantly escalated, leading to a reduction in safe-haven demand for gold [4] Group 3 - UBS forecasts that global central banks will continue to increase gold holdings, predicting a gold price of approximately $3,500 per ounce by the end of the year [5] - The World Gold Council's latest survey indicates that central banks have added over 1,000 tons of gold annually for the past three years, double the average growth rate of the previous decade [5] - 95% of survey respondents expect an increase in global central bank gold reserves over the next 12 months, supporting the bullish outlook for gold prices [5] Group 4 - The gold ETF fund (159937) is designed to closely track domestic gold prices, offering low entry barriers and diverse trading options [5] - Long-term, gold's value is expected to rise in line with the expansion of credit money supply and its role in hedging tail risks in investment portfolios [5] - Gold assets have historically performed well during both overheated and recessionary economic cycles, suggesting a favorable investment environment for gold ETFs [5]

热点报告——外汇期货 美联储偏向鹰派，美元短期走强 总体来看，6 月份利率会议偏向鹰派，虽然美国经济滞胀压力上 升，但是由于对于通胀压力高度关注，因此美联储选择继续观 望，并且远期利率指引偏向继续压制通胀预期。因此短期预计 美元指数回升。 ★投资建议 短期美元指回升。 ★风险提示： [★TaFbOleM_SCu6m月m利ary率] 会议：维持利率水平不变 美联 6 月利率会议美联储符合市场预期维持利率水平不变。但 是对于远期预期降息次数减少，受此影响市场风险偏好走弱， 美元指数短期回升。 从对于经济的描述来看，经济活动继续扩张，失业率维持在低 位，劳动力市场稳健。这些表述和上次利率会议一致。细节在 于美联储把失业率稳定在低位，改成失业率维持在低位，这表 明了劳动力市场有走弱的倾向。 外 汇 期 货 美联储在会议声明维持利率水平不变，本次会议声明表示"经 济前景的不确定性进一步增加"修改为"不确定性有所下降， 但仍处于较高水平"，同时删去了"认为高失业和高通胀的风 险都有所上升"的表述。这个改变意味着美联储对于远期经济 的看法偏向于不确定性减少，滞胀压力进一步扩大的压力减轻， 因此美联储对于短期经济走势的看法边 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_Title] 继续观望，直至前景明朗 ——2025 年 6 月美联储议息会议点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 6 月，美联储议息会议上，美联储如期维持联邦基金利率目标区间不变，会议声明的关 键调整在于强调不确定性减弱但仍偏高。经济预测方面，美联储下调近两年 GDP 增速预期、 上调近三年通胀和失业率预期。降息路径方面，本次会议公布的点阵图结论上仍维持年内累计 降息 50BP 预期，但分布有所上移且趋于分散。总之，关税政策及其经济影响的不确定性导致 美联储倾向保持观望。向前看，经济数据的表现仍是决定未来货币政策的重中之重，未来降息 与否的关键在于：滞与胀谁先到来。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于博 敬成宇 SAC：S0490520090001 SFC：BUX667 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 世界经济与海外市场丨点评报告 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 继续观望，直至前景明朗 2] ——2025 年 6 月美联储议息会议点评 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 北京 ...

2025年06月19日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：联储继续按兵不动 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：继续冲高 | 2 | | 铜：库存下降，支撑价格 | 4 | | 铝：偏强震荡 | 6 | | 氧化铝：关注减产检修情况 | 6 | | 锌：中期承压，关注社库变化 | 8 | | 铅：区间运行 | 9 | | 锡：紧现实弱预期 | 10 | | 镍：矿端担忧有所降温，冶炼供应弹性饱满 | 12 | | 不锈钢：负反馈传导减产增加，供需双弱低位震荡 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 19 日 黄金：联储继续按兵不动 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 白银：继续冲高 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨 ...

>?@ABCDEFGHI2025-06-19 高聪 * gaocong@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3063338 投资咨询号：Z0016648 !"#$$%&'$ 徐闻宇 * xuwenyu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0299877 投资咨询号：Z0011454 !"#$%&"'( )*+,-2011.1289 /0 !"# 6 $%&'()*+,-./01 ——!"#$%&'&2 !"#$% 北京时间 2025 年 6 月 19 日凌晨 2 点，美联储公布 5 月利率决议，将利率维持在 4.25%- 4.50%。 （1）关税扰动、分歧加大：美联储本次会议释放出关税对通胀形成干扰、内部对降息 路径分歧加大的信号，显示政策转向更为谨慎和依赖数据。 （2）删除了对滞胀的担忧：美联储声明删除了关于失业和通胀同时上升的表述，显示 其对 "滞胀" 风险的担忧有所缓解，政策重心重新回归对通胀单一目标的观察与评估。 &'"( n !"# 6 $%&'()* +,-./0123 在 6 月 FOMC 会议中，美联储维持联邦基金利率在 4.25%-4.50%不变，连续第四次按兵 不动。尽管通胀依然高于 2%的目标， ...

【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 78,690 | 0.40% | 78610 | -0.10% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 9,651 | -0.20% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜主力合约 | 34,479 | 3,870 | 137,220 | 1,023 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 13,333 | 598 | 291,000 | -1,972 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 47,014 | -7,527 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 107,350 | -200 | 49.53% | -1.23% | | | | | 昨日价差 | 前日价差 | 较前日变动 | | | LME铜升贴水 | | 105.96 | 122.77 | -16.81 | | | 保税区仓单 ...

Group 1: Company Bond ETF (511030) - As of June 19, 2025, the Company Bond ETF (511030) increased by 0.01%, with the latest price at 106.03 yuan [1] - Over the past three months, the Company Bond ETF has accumulated a rise of 1.01% [1] - The latest scale of the Company Bond ETF reached 18.681 billion yuan, marking a new high since its inception [1] - The latest share count for the Company Bond ETF is 17.6 million shares, also a new high in three months [1] - The ETF has seen continuous net inflows over the past nine days, with a maximum single-day net inflow of 1.538 billion yuan, totaling 3.125 billion yuan in net inflows [1] - Leveraged funds have been actively buying into the Company Bond ETF, with a maximum single-day net purchase of 8.4424 million yuan [1] Group 2: National Bond ETF (511020) - As of June 19, 2025, the National Bond ETF (511020) rose by 0.03%, achieving five consecutive increases, with the latest price at 117.64 yuan [3] - The National Bond ETF has accumulated a rise of 1.80% over the past three months [3] - The latest scale of the National Bond ETF is 1.433 billion yuan [3] Group 3: National Development Bond ETF (159651) - As of June 19, 2025, the National Development Bond ETF (159651) is in a state of indecision, with the latest price at 106.19 yuan [5] - Over the past year, the National Development Bond ETF has accumulated a rise of 2.00% [5] - The latest scale of the National Development Bond ETF is 1.052 billion yuan [5] Group 4: FOMC Economic Forecast - The FOMC has downgraded the U.S. GDP growth forecast for Q4 2025 from 1.7% to 1.4% and raised the unemployment rate forecast from 4.4% to 4.5% [6] - The PCE inflation forecast has been increased from 2.7% to 3.0%, and the core PCE from 2.8% to 3.1% [6] - Despite the changes in economic forecasts, the FOMC's median policy rate expectations for Q4 2025 remain unchanged [6] Group 5: FOMC Press Conference Insights - Powell expressed confidence in the economy and patience regarding inflation, stating that maintaining the current policy is the best strategy [7] - The market slightly adjusted its expectations for rate cuts in 2025 following the press conference, with a more hawkish signal leading to an increase in the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields [7] - The upcoming changes in the Federal Reserve's leadership may influence future rate cut expectations [7] Group 6: Bond ETF Product Overview - The three main members of the Bond ETF family managed by Ping An Fund include the Company Bond ETF (511030), National Development Bond ETF (159651), and National Bond ETF (511020) [8] - These products encompass government bonds, policy bank bonds, and credit bonds, covering various durations to assist investors in navigating the bond market cycle [8]

| | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪金2508 | 785.42 | 0.04% | #N/A | #N/A | | | 黄金T+D | 781.64 | -0.17% | #N/A | #N/A | | | Comex黄金2508 | 3386.40 | -0.59% | - | | | | 伦敦金现货 | #N/A | #N/A | - | - | | | 沪银2508 | 9045 | 2.04% | #N/A | #N/A | | | 白银T+D | 8989 | 1.79% | #N/A | #N/A | | 价 格 | Comex白银2508 | 36.760 | -1.13% | - | - | | | 伦敦银现货 | #N/A | #N/A | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪金2508合约对2512合约价差 | 164,233 | -28,656 | 162,421 | -6,514 | | | Come ...

2025年06月19日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：联储继续按兵不动 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：继续冲高 | 3 | | 铜：库存下降，支撑价格 | 5 | | 铝：偏强震荡 | 7 | | 氧化铝：关注减产检修情况 | 7 | | 锌：中期承压，关注社库变化 | 9 | | 铅：区间运行 | 10 | | 锡：紧现实弱预期 | 11 | | 镍：矿端担忧有所降温，冶炼供应弹性饱满 | 13 | | 不锈钢：负反馈传导减产增加，供需双弱低位震荡 | 13 | | 碳酸锂：仓单去化加速，关注潜在采买 | 15 | | 工业硅：仓单持续去化，关注上方空间 | 17 | | 多晶硅：上游复产，盘面下跌 | 17 | | 铁矿石：预期反复，区间震荡 | 19 | | 螺纹钢：宏观情绪扰动，宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 热轧卷板：宏观情绪扰动，宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 硅铁：板块情绪共振，宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 锰硅：板块情绪共振，宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 动力煤：需求仍待释放，宽幅震荡 | 26 | ...

今日周四（6月19日)亚盘时段，白银t+d目前交投于8875一线下方，今日开盘于8986元/千克，截至发 稿，白银t+d暂8892元/千克，下跌0.89%，最高触及8994元/千克，最低下探8875元/千克，目前来看，白 银t+d盘内短线偏向看跌走势。 【要闻速递】 美联储6月议息-连续第四次维持利率不变，点阵图显示今年降息两次，但预计今年不降息的官员人数升 至7位，明年的降息预期被削减至1次。鲍威尔继续高呼不确定性，目前的经济情况适合观望。他还预计 未来几个月会有关税驱动的通胀上升。 特朗普重申美联储应降息：应降200BP，降250BP会非常好。 值得注意的是，尽管点阵图仍然给出了年内两次降息的预期，但美联储内部对此存在较大的分歧。 展望未来，中东局势和关税同时升级的可能性并不高。倘若中东局势进一步升级，推动油价上涨，进而 带动非核心通胀上升，那么关税政策有望进一步缓和，从而缓解核心通胀压力。在此情形下，年内降息 的概率较大。不过，变数在于降息次数能否达到两次的预期。 【最新白银t+d行情解析】 白银t+d市场技术分析显示，当前价格走势需重点关注以下关键位：上方阻力位方面，9040元对应5日均 线压制位，若 ...