由于7月4日是假期，本周的非农报告罕见地在周四而非周五发布。 报告特别指出："只要非农数据高于10万，股市仍将获得支撑。虽然我们视之为积极信号，但接近预测 区间下端的数据可能难以显著改善市场情绪——尤其是考虑到美联储主席鲍威尔此前关于关税影响将在 6-8月数据中显现的警告。" 周三，在非农数据公布前，标普500指数创下年内新高。 然而，6月ADP报告显示私营部门就业减少3.3 万个岗位，这令部分交易员和经济学家对预测产生动摇。 虽然ADP数据并不总能准确预测美国劳工统计局（BLS）的就业数据，但此次疲软表现确实强化了经济 可能开始失速的观点。 摩根大通设定了不同情景下的市场反应： 新增8.5万-10.5万：标普500指数可能下跌0.25%-1.5% 摩根大通交易部门模拟推演显示，若周四公布的就业数据与早前ADP报告的疲软态势相似，美国股市很 可能出现大幅抛售。 该行美国市场情报团队周三发布报告称，符合预期的就业数据可能推动股市上涨，但下行风险明显大于 上行空间。 根据道琼斯调查，经济学家普遍预测6月新增就业岗位11万个。 摩根大通首席美国经济学家迈克尔·费罗利（Michael Feroli）则预计新增12.5 ...

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy is facing significant challenges, with a reported GDP contraction of 0.5% in Q1 2025, marking the worst performance in three years [1] - The Federal Reserve is in a difficult position, unable to lower interest rates due to inflation concerns while also hesitant to raise rates amid fears of a complete economic collapse [1][2] - The uncertainty in policies has reached a new high since 1985, leading to low corporate investment and a reluctance to expand operations [2] Consumer Behavior - Consumer spending has drastically declined, with a 0.1% decrease in May, marking the first negative growth of the year, and a significant drop in consumer confidence to 93, the lowest since the pandemic began [4] - The average disposable income for the lowest income group has decreased by 4.9%, which is more than double the decline experienced by higher income groups [4] Trade and Inventory Issues - A surge in imports due to preemptive stockpiling before tariffs led to a 37.9% increase in imports, negatively impacting GDP by approximately 4.7 percentage points [5] - Retail inventory levels are high, with a sales-to-inventory ratio of 1.4, indicating that products are not moving off the shelves [5] Inflation and Price Pressures - Core PCE inflation is currently at 2.7%, but there are concerns that actual tariff rates could lead to a significant increase in inflation, potentially exceeding 2.8% if comprehensive tariffs are enacted [8] - Price increases are already being observed, with specific products like plush toys seeing a 42% price hike due to expiring tariff exemptions [8] International Trade Relations - The U.S. trade deficit has widened to $96.6 billion, with exports from countries like Vietnam and Thailand to the U.S. increasing by 35% in May [6][10] - Retaliatory measures from trade partners, including the EU's plan to impose tariffs on $26 billion worth of U.S. goods, could further strain U.S. agricultural exports and increase costs in the automotive sector [10]

Group 1 - The UK economy is currently facing significant challenges, with policymakers struggling between inflation control and stimulating growth [2][3][4] - The Bank of England is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in August, reducing the benchmark rate from 4.25% to 4% [2][3] - Persistent inflationary pressures, such as rising average wages and energy prices, complicate the decision-making process for the Bank of England [2][4][6] Group 2 - The fiscal framework established by Chancellor Rachel Reeves is under strain due to high inflation-linked debt interest costs, which are consuming 4.5% of the UK's GDP [19][20] - The government's commitment to not borrowing for day-to-day expenses is becoming increasingly difficult to maintain amid disappointing economic data and low tax revenues [3][21][22] - The potential for tax increases appears to be the only viable option for the government, despite the unpopularity of such measures [3][26][30] Group 3 - The UK economy is experiencing a dual pressure from stubborn inflation and weak growth, with April's economic contraction of 0.4% highlighting the severity of the situation [9][10] - The Bank of England's cautious approach to interest rate cuts reflects a lack of confidence in controlling inflation while supporting economic growth [12][14][44] - The disconnect between monetary policy and fiscal policy is creating a challenging environment, where efforts to stimulate demand through lower interest rates may be offset by fiscal tightening [31][32][33] Group 4 - Structural issues, such as stagnant productivity and low investment, are exacerbating the UK's economic challenges, with long-term solutions needed beyond short-term policy adjustments [39][50] - The reliance on high-end service exports makes the UK economy vulnerable to global trade disruptions, particularly in the context of rising protectionism [42] - The need for significant structural reforms is emphasized, focusing on supply-side improvements to enhance long-term productivity and competitiveness [50][51]

金十数据整理：每日全球外汇市场要闻速递（7月1日） 美元： 1. 高盛将美联储降息预测提前至9月。 2. 媒体：美国官员寻求缩小贸易协议范围，力争7月9日前达成协议。 3. 美国财长贝森特：未来几周、几个月内将着手寻找美联储主席鲍威尔的继任者。 4. 特朗普："太迟先生"鲍威尔和整个美联储委员会都应该为没有降息感到羞耻。 5. 美国芝加哥6月商业活动指数降至1月以来最低水平；达拉斯联储商业活动指数连续第五个月收缩。 2. 拉加德：欧元区面临通胀波动加剧的问题。 3. 韩国央行表示，第一季度净抛售29.6亿美元，以抑制韩元贬值，上一季度净抛售了37.6亿美元。 4. 韩国官员：与美国的贸易谈判将不得不在7月8日之后继续进行，首尔将寻求延长时间。有关外汇和国 防开支的问题将分别讨论。 5. 欧洲央行副行长金多斯：由于不确定性，我们必须保留所有利率选择。 6. 欧洲央行管委西姆库斯：不知道是否能在九月之前掌握所有所需的信息。任何利率变动都更有可能在 年底前发生。 6. 美联储博斯蒂克：预计今年将降息一次，2026年将降息三次；没有必要通过加息来应对通胀。 7. 美联储古尔斯比：预计不会出现1970年代式的滞胀情况。 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs has adjusted its forecast for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, now expecting a cut in September instead of December, citing weaker-than-expected inflation impacts from tariffs [1] - The Goldman Sachs economic research team, led by Chief Economist Jan Hatzius, believes the probability of a September rate cut is slightly above 50%, influenced by factors such as weaker tariff effects and a softening labor market [1] - Goldman Sachs predicts rate cuts of 25 basis points in September, October, and December, lowering the terminal rate expectation from 3.5%-3.75% to 3%-3.25% [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley disagrees with Goldman Sachs, stating that the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in the near term remains low, despite market expectations increasing for a September cut [1] - Morgan Stanley analysts believe that most Federal Reserve officials support a cautious stance and are unlikely to quickly endorse rate cuts, anticipating a relatively stable upcoming employment report [1] - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee expressed skepticism about the possibility of a 1970s-style stagflation occurring in the current economic environment, given the current unemployment and inflation rates [2] Group 3 - Atlanta Fed President Bostic expects one rate cut in 2025 and three cuts in the following year, indicating a patient approach to maintaining current rates due to a stable labor market [3] - Bostic noted that the full impact of Trump's trade tariffs on the economy has yet to be felt, suggesting that price impacts are more a matter of timing than certainty [2]

美联储古尔斯比：预计不会出现1970年代式的滞胀情况 金十数据7月1日讯，美联储古尔斯比表示，在失业率接近4%、通胀率约为2.5%且不断下降的情况下， 他认为关税或其他供应冲击不可能在短期内造成真正的20世纪70年代式的滞胀，当时的失业率是现在的 两倍，通胀率超过13%。古尔斯比说："但绝对有可能出现两种情况同时恶化的情况。你通常会说，双 方的差异会持续多久？你认为这是暂时的还是永久的？双方的差距有多大......这就是我思考问题的方 式。"他没有对这些变量做出预测。 ...

摩根大通对美元前景持看空态度，认为美国经济增长放缓与其他地区政策刺激将削弱美元相对优势。债市方面，报告预测随着美国债务规模持续膨胀，传统 大买家对美债的需求占比将下降，可能导致期限溢价上升四十到五十个基点。 对于美联储政策路径，该行预期与市场共识存在显著分歧。摩根大通预计首次降息将推迟至今年年底到明年年初，累计幅度约一百个基点，远低于期货市场 押注的今年两次降息。"只有经济出现超预期放缓或衰退，才会触发更激进的宽松周期，"分析师强调。 尽管对宏观经济持谨慎态度，摩根大通却维持对美股的乐观看法。报告认为，在科技/AI板块强劲基本面支撑下，配合系统性资金的持续流入，美股创新高 的阻力仍然最小。"除非出现重大政策或地缘风险，当前市场动能有望延续，"分析师表示。 摩根大通最新研究报告发出警示，美国当前贸易政策可能在全球范围内产生双重冲击——既拖累经济增长，又重燃通胀压力。该行将美国下半年陷入经济衰 退的概率上调至百分之四十，同时下调今年GDP增长预期至百分之一点三，较年初预测的百分之二大幅调降。 这份年中展望报告特别指出，关税政策引发的"滞胀压力"是下调美国经济增长预期的关键因素。滞胀这一经济学术语特指经济增长停滞与 ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 BIS指出，增长前景恶化，同时消费者价格稳定、公共财政和金融系统的风险加剧。面对挑战，官员们 建议央行专注核心使命以维护信任，并增强行动有效性。 卡斯滕斯强调美联储在当前环境中尤其艰难，其主席鲍威尔坚决抵制来自白宫的降息压力。"在美国， 美联储可能面临非常困难的局面，即通胀压力上升或通胀预期偏离，同时经济放缓，"他说，"这是央行 通常觉得特别棘手的情况。" BIS报告频繁强调通胀风险，包括贸易中断如何冲击已受人口老龄化和劳动力短缺挤压的经济体，并损 害商品供应。官员们强调，疫情后消费者敏感度上升，结合仍高企的生活成本预期，可能对价格稳定构 成新挑战。 这一分析结合近期原油价格飙升（随后部分回落）可能让政策制定者警惕。BIS经济顾问申炫松（Hyun Song Shin）称："一朝被蛇咬，十年怕井绳，确保一次性价格上涨不转化为持续通胀至关重要。" 报告还指出，部分国家积累的史无前例的国债构成风险。经合组织成员国利息支付占GDP比例去年达 4%并将继续上升。"通胀和金融稳定风险更易源自主权债市压力或通过其传播，"BIS称，"对财政可持 续性的担忧可能引发再融资挑战，并潜在颠覆通 ...

Economic Trends - The U.S. economy has shown signs of weakening, with hard data beginning to align with previous soft data trends, confirming earlier conclusions about a cyclical downturn starting in 2025[2] - The PMI is below 50% and overall economic conditions are deteriorating, indicating stagflation similar to the situation in 1985[4] Currency and Market Performance - The U.S. dollar has depreciated over 10% in the last five months, dropping from a historical percentile of 86% to 57%[2] - Despite the dollar's decline, the U.S. stock market has reached new highs, which was previously underestimated in terms of resilience[2] Historical Context - Historical analysis shows that during similar periods of dollar depreciation (over 11% in five months), the stock market generally experienced gains, particularly in 1985, 2009, and 2010[3] - The current market conditions resemble those of 1985 and 2002, where the stock market did not experience significant declines prior to the dollar's depreciation, affecting subsequent rebounds[4] Future Outlook - The continuation of the current trend of a declining dollar and rising stock market will depend on economic recovery and policy measures, such as interest rate cuts or quantitative easing[4] - The stock market's equity risk premium (ERP) has returned to negative territory, indicating low value for future rebounds compared to historical standards[4] Inflation Concerns - Input inflation is expected to rise due to the dollar's weakness, with predictions that CPI will exceed 3% by the end of the year if monthly increases remain around 0.2%[8] - Recent data quality issues in CPI calculations have raised concerns about the accuracy of inflation metrics, with estimation rates increasing from 10% to 30%[7] Policy Implications - The potential for tax cuts and monetary easing in the second half of the year could significantly impact inflation and market dynamics[6] - The balance of Trump's aggressive policies and their effects on market perceptions will be crucial in determining future market stability[6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the rising risks of unemployment in the U.S. labor market, driven by weakening labor supply and demand, and the potential impact of tariffs on employment [2][3][4] - The U.S. labor market is crucial for the economy, with consumer spending significantly contributing to GDP growth, primarily driven by labor income [2][6] - The unemployment rate is expected to rise, with estimates suggesting it could reach 4.5-4.6% by the end of the year, influenced by the new tariffs [3][89] Group 2 - The article discusses the employment impact of tariffs, indicating that a 1% decline in GDP could lead to a 0.3-0.7% increase in unemployment, based on Okun's Law [3][89] - The current tariff situation is expected to have a more significant impact on the manufacturing sector compared to previous tariff implementations, with a broader economic slowdown anticipated [65][77] - The article notes that the current economic environment is characterized by declining wage growth and increased precautionary savings among consumers, which could further exacerbate employment challenges [77][81] Group 3 - The "Sahm Rule" is mentioned as a potential indicator of recession, suggesting that if the unemployment rate rises to 4.6%, it could trigger recession signals [4][99] - Historical data shows that the Sahm Rule has a high success rate in predicting recessions, with the article indicating that the current labor market conditions could lead to its activation in the coming months [99][100] - The article emphasizes that the labor market is currently in a "loosened" state, with demand-side weaknesses likely driving the unemployment rate upward [100]