Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for Q1 2025, but new contract signings showed positive growth, indicating potential recovery in the upcoming quarters [1][2]. Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue was 154.6 billion, down 12.6% year-on-year, with a net profit of 5.47 billion, down 11.0% year-on-year [1]. - The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was 11.6%, a decrease of 0.35 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin increased by 0.07 percentage points to 3.54% [1][2]. - The company experienced a cash outflow of 48.9 billion in operating activities for Q1 2025, which was 9.3 billion more than the previous year, primarily due to seasonal factors [2]. Contract and Order Growth - New contract signings for Q1 2025 reached 553 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.0%, laying a solid foundation for annual growth [2]. - The breakdown of new contracts includes 493.5 billion in infrastructure construction, 15.5 billion in design, and 4.1 billion in dredging, with notable growth in overseas projects [2]. Debt and Cash Flow - As of the end of Q1 2025, the company had a debt ratio of 34.3% and a liability ratio of 75.3%, both showing slight increases compared to the previous year [2]. - The cash collection ratio for Q1 2025 was 94.9%, down 1.61 percentage points year-on-year, while the cash payment ratio was 125.5%, up 3.77 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains net profit forecasts of 24.6 billion, 25.9 billion, and 27.0 billion for 2025-2027 [3]. - The target price for A shares is set at 12.11 yuan, while the target price for H shares is adjusted to 7.33 HKD, maintaining a "buy" rating for both A and H shares [3].

大宗商品周度报告 2025年4月28日 黑色方面，钢材、铁矿石在前期强势上涨后出现调整，成材库存去化节奏减 慢，铁矿石盘面情绪同步转弱，双焦受原料补库力度减弱影响也震荡偏弱。政策 面稳增长预期依然存在支撑，但短期现实需求与宏观情绪脱节，导致黑色板块波 动加大。 能源方面，市场对全球经济放缓及需求疲软的担忧升温，同时美国成品油库 存回升、美联储偏鹰预期抑制了油价上行空间。尽管中东局势仍有不稳定因素， 但避险支撑逐步减弱，油价上行动能不足。天然气价格继续承压，受库存高企及 气温回暖影响，供需宽松格局未改。短期来看，能源板块情绪趋于谨慎，关注 OPEC+后续减产动态以及全球经济数据对需求端预期的进一步调整。 化工方面，聚酯产业链品种如PTA、乙二醇在成本支撑减弱下震荡回落，甲 醇、PVC等基础化工品亦受制于内需疲软和出口承压，盘面持续承压。尽管国 内稳增长政策仍在推进，但短期现实需求接力不足，化工板块陷入成本支撑减弱 与终端需求乏力共振的调整阶段。节后市场关注点将转向下游复工节奏、库存变 化及国际油价的指引作用。 农产品方面，油脂油料板块走高，受外盘反弹、供需预期改善及资金情绪回 暖带动。畜禽板块表现偏弱，消费提振 ...

宏 观 总 量 2025 年 4 月 28 日 政治局会议点评：步步为营 | 毛磊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 | maolei@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 王笑 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0013736 | Wangxiao@gtht.com | 报告导读： ◼ 摘要： 4 月 25 日，今年首次以经济为主题的政治局会议召开。本次会议对重点领域工作的要求，基本上延续 了去年 12 月政治局会议、中央经济工作会议的措辞，但更强调落实，要求加紧发力。同时，政策面传递 出政策空间储备充足，该出手时就出手的信号。整体上，存量政策落地提速，增量政策预留空间，步步为 营，显示出应对"国际经贸斗争"的东方智慧。 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 （正文） 1. 政策整体基调：存量重落实，增量留空间 从过去政治局会议学习体会来看，每次会议中政策的提出与实施，均与会议对当前形势的定调和判断 相呼应。过去，若高层对形势判断以乐观态度为主，对应的实际政策并不会过于强调稳增长，更可能向调 结构倾斜。但是一旦宏观形势判断较 ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·中药Ⅱ 东阿阿胶（000423） 2025 年一季报点评：业绩符合预期，高分红， 稳增长 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 4,715 | 5,921 | 6,878 | 7,859 | 8,918 | | 同比（%） | 16.66 | 25.57 | 16.16 | 14.26 | 13.47 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,151 | 1,557 | 1,864 | 2,215 | 2,565 | | 同比（%） | 47.55 | 35.29 | 19.73 | 18.80 | 15.83 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 1.79 | 2.42 | 2.89 | 3.44 | 3.98 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 30.84 | 22.79 | 19.04 | 16.02 | 13.83 | [Table_Tag] [Table_Summa ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the resilience of China's foreign exchange market and plans to implement more proactive macroeconomic policies to support employment and growth amid recent fluctuations in the US Treasury market [1][2]. Foreign Exchange Market - The impact of fluctuations in a single market or asset on China's foreign exchange reserves is generally limited, as the reserves are diversified and managed with safety, liquidity, and value preservation in mind [1]. - China's foreign exchange reserves remain stable at over $3.2 trillion, supported by a balanced international payment situation and a resilient foreign exchange market [2]. Monetary Policy - The PBOC plans to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy, with potential adjustments to reserve requirement ratios and interest rates based on domestic and international economic conditions [3]. - The central bank aims to enhance financial support for key sectors such as technology innovation, green finance, and inclusive finance, while ensuring reasonable growth in money and credit [3]. Employment and Economic Growth - The PBOC will intensify support for employment through policies like entrepreneurship guarantee loans, particularly targeting groups such as returning migrant workers and recent graduates [4]. - Financial institutions will be guided to continue lending to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) that are heavily reliant on foreign trade and facing temporary difficulties [4]. Support for Private Enterprises - The PBOC is committed to enhancing financial services for private enterprises, ensuring a favorable monetary environment through adequate liquidity and targeted financial support measures [5]. - The central bank will broaden financing channels for private enterprises, including expanding bond financing and improving access to foreign capital [6]. Data Insights - As of March 2025, the loan balance for privately held enterprises is approximately 45 trillion yuan, with an increase of 2.4 trillion yuan in the first three months of the year [6]. - The weighted average interest rate for new loans to privately held enterprises in March was about 3.41%, a decrease of 58 basis points compared to the same period last year [6].

25Q1 综合毛利率 11.6%，同比-0.35pct，期间费用率同比-0.05pct 至 6.3%， 其中销售 /管 理 /研 发 /财 务 费 用 率 0.45%/2.45%/2.75%/0.69% ， 同 比 +0.04/-0.04/+0.10/-0.15pct。25Q1 减值冲回 5.21 亿，同比多冲回 4.0 亿， 主要系个别项目实现回款实现转回。综合影响下，25Q1 归母净利润率同比 +0.07pct 至 3.54%。 证券研究报告 中国交建 (1800 HK/601800 CH) 港股通 Q1 新签订单开门红，奠定增长基础 | 华泰研究 | | | 季报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 4 月 | 28 日│中国内地/中国香港 | 建筑施工 | 公司发布一季报：25Q1 实现营收 1546 亿，同比-12.6%，归母净利 54.7 亿，同比-11.0%。我们认为 Q1 收入利润受季节性和高基数因素影响，短期 承压，但新签订单同比+9.0%，已显示出良好态势，随着稳增长、化债等政 策逐步见效，Q2 有望迎来改善。公司 25 年新签合同额/收入目标 ...

证券研究报告：固定收益报告 发布时间：2025-04-28 研究所 生产：焦炉、高炉、沥青开工率升高，化工、轮胎下降 4 月 25 日当周，焦炉产能利用率升高 1.86 pct，高炉开工率升 高 0.77 pct，螺纹钢产量减少 0.11 万吨，沥青开工率升高 2.0 pct； 受检修季影响，PX 开工率下降 0.37 pct，PTA 下降 3.48 pct；汽车 全钢胎、半钢胎开工率分别下降 2.97 pct、0.33 pct。 需求：商品房成交持续回落，BDI 指数企稳回升 4 月 27 日当周，商品房成交面积持续回落；航运指数 SCFI 下降 1.66%，CCFI 上涨 1.03%，BDI 上涨 8.88%。4 月 20 日当周，商品房存 销比升高，土地成交面积连续两周下降，住宅用地成交溢价率下降； 电影票房较前一周下降 0.2 亿元；汽车厂家日均零售增加 10818 辆， 日均批发增加 7309 辆。 物价：原油、猪肉价格下降，有色、黑色系商品上涨 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 分析师:崔超 SAC 登记编号 ...

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector is experiencing a rally, driven by macroeconomic policies aimed at stabilizing growth and addressing external shocks, with a focus on employment, enterprises, and market expectations [3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The China Securities Red Chip Low Volatility 100 Index (930955) increased by 0.34%, with notable gains from stocks such as Yangyuan Beverage (603156) up 7.25% and Baosteel (600019) up 6.02% [3]. - The Red Chip Low Volatility 100 ETF (159307) rose by 0.19%, marking its third consecutive increase, with the latest price at 1.03 yuan [3]. Group 2: Economic Policy Insights - The Central Political Bureau meeting on April 25 emphasized the need to solidify the foundation for economic recovery, highlighting the importance of proactive macroeconomic policies to counter external uncertainties [3]. - The meeting called for timely implementation of established policies and the introduction of additional measures based on changing circumstances, focusing on stabilizing growth [3][4]. Group 3: Banking Sector Outlook - Eastern Securities noted that the current period is characterized by intensive policy implementation aimed at stabilizing growth, with monetary easing leading the way, followed by fiscal measures [4]. - The banking sector is expected to benefit from increased fiscal policy support, which will bolster social financing and credit, enhancing economic expectations [4]. - The net interest margin for banks may face short-term pressure due to broad interest rate declines, but regulatory measures against high-interest deposit solicitation will provide support [4]. Group 4: ETF Performance Metrics - The Red Chip Low Volatility 100 ETF saw a significant increase in scale, with a growth of 16.59 million yuan over the past week, ranking second among comparable funds [4]. - The ETF's one-year net value increased by 8.14%, leading among comparable funds, with a maximum drawdown of 6.18% year-to-date, the smallest among peers [5][6]. - The ETF has a management fee of 0.15% and a custody fee of 0.05%, the lowest among comparable funds, with a tracking error of 0.017%, indicating high tracking precision [6]. Group 5: Index Composition - As of March 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities Red Chip Low Volatility 100 Index accounted for 19.3% of the index, with notable stocks including Jizhong Energy (000937) and Daqin Railway (601006) [6][8].

Core Insights - The industrial economy in Heilongjiang Province is showing signs of recovery, with a total industrial added value growth rate of 5.3% in the first quarter, accelerating by 7.1 percentage points compared to the previous year [1] - The growth rate of industrial added value for large-scale industries reached 6.1%, exceeding the initial target by 2.6 percentage points [1] - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for March was reported at 50.5, indicating a positive production outlook [1] Industrial Performance - The mining sector's added value growth rate was 6.3%, slightly above the national average by 0.1 percentage points [2] - The manufacturing sector's added value growth rate was 6.2%, marginally higher than the provincial large-scale industrial growth rate by 0.1 percentage points [2] - The electricity, heat, gas, and water supply sector recorded a growth rate of 5.4%, surpassing the national average by 3.5 percentage points [2] Sectoral Highlights - The equipment manufacturing industry experienced the fastest growth at 18.9%, exceeding the national average by 8 percentage points [2] - The energy sector showed significant support with a growth rate of 5.9%, particularly in coal mining and washing, which reached 10.1% [2] - The construction materials industry also performed well, achieving a growth rate of 31.5% [2] Future Outlook - The Heilongjiang Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology plans to focus on stabilizing industrial growth, transforming methods, adjusting structures, improving quality, and increasing efficiency [2] - Emphasis will be placed on key regions, industries, projects, market expansion, and providing better services to enterprises [2]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the Chinese economy, focusing on various sectors including real estate, infrastructure, consumer services, and the impact of external trade policies. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Economic Growth and Risk Management**: The Political Bureau meeting emphasized the dual focus on stabilizing growth and managing risks, indicating a stronger policy response to economic challenges, particularly in service consumption and support for foreign trade enterprises [1][2][3]. 2. **Real Estate Strategy**: The meeting highlighted the importance of real estate, proposing a new development model that includes increasing the supply of high-quality housing and optimizing land acquisition policies to stabilize the market [1][19][20]. 3. **Infrastructure Investment**: Government investment is seen as a key driver, with a focus on major projects in economically advantageous regions like the Yangtze River Delta and Greater Bay Area, as well as significant projects in western regions [1][28][29]. 4. **Service Consumption Growth**: There is a strong signal to boost income for low- and middle-income groups and develop service consumption, with expectations that service retail will account for over 40% of total retail sales by 2027 [1][37][41]. 5. **Impact of Tariffs on Textile and Apparel**: Chinese textile and apparel companies are adapting to U.S. tariff policies by relocating production to Southeast Asia, while maintaining competitiveness through price adjustments [1][42][44]. 6. **Cross-Border E-commerce**: The cross-border e-commerce market is thriving despite tariff challenges, with companies like Dunhuang.com performing well in the U.S. market [1][43]. 7. **AI and Technology in Retail**: The integration of AI technology is transforming the retail landscape, with major Chinese internet companies investing heavily in AI infrastructure and applications [1][50][51]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content 1. **Challenges in Land Acquisition**: The government faces challenges in land acquisition policies, including pricing and funding issues, which may hinder the execution of real estate strategies [1][22][23]. 2. **Slow Progress in Urban Village Renovation**: Urban village renovation has been slow, with various obstacles such as funding models and compensation mechanisms affecting progress [1][24]. 3. **Consumer Behavior Trends**: New consumption trends are emerging, with a focus on personalized and unique experiences driving growth in sectors like beauty care and personal grooming [1][48][49]. 4. **Investment Opportunities in Infrastructure**: The emphasis on urban renewal and infrastructure investment presents significant opportunities for growth in the construction and related sectors [1][31][32]. 5. **Potential for High-Quality Housing**: The trend towards high-quality housing is gaining momentum, with local governments implementing new standards to enhance living conditions [1][21][25]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current economic landscape and potential investment opportunities within various sectors.