金价像脱缰的野马，2024年初还在2050美元晃悠，到了2025年直接飙到3500美元，涨了七成多。 而美元却像漏气的皮球，购买力直线崩盘，有人甚至喊它要贬值90%。 人民币可不甘示弱，带着黄金筹码在国际舞台上大杀四方，结算量猛涨，中东土豪都开始用人民币买金。 美元的霸主地位晃得厉害，人民币国际化势头猛得像要追平它。 这场货币大战，到底谁能笑到最后？ 文案：凤梨 编辑：凤梨 国际金市最近可以说是十分热闹，买盘一波接一波，伦敦金交所一天能涌入30亿美金的订单。 亚洲的央行们买的最积极，中国、印度、土耳其，一个比一个出手狠，2025年一季度，全球央行买的黄金占了全年需求的四分之一。 这可不是投机炒作，黄金这东西不生利息，也不像股票能分红，但它有个真本事——能扛住货币贬值的风险。 回想1971年，美元跟黄金彻底分手，布雷顿森林体系崩了。 那会金价才35美元，如今3500美元，美元的购买力硬生生缩水了99%，这数字听着吓人，但市场反应更直接。 数据显示：2025年，美元指数跌到98，三年最低，美国国债日子也不好过，全球抛售潮来了，10年期美债的实际利率滑到-1.3%。 华尔街嘴上不认输，可连中国的保险资金都开始买黄金 ...

Group 1: US-China Tariff Negotiations - The US and China are currently in a stalemate regarding tariff negotiations, with no significant progress reported [1] - US President Trump claims negotiations are ongoing, while China officially denies any discussions on tariffs [1] - The US is attempting to sway hesitant countries by suggesting that even the strongest parties are yielding in negotiations [1] Group 2: Gold Market Analysis - A recent report indicates that gold prices have been driven up by escalating US-China tariff tensions, a weakening dollar, and heightened global risk aversion since April [4] - Long-term support for gold prices is attributed to safe-haven demand, with geopolitical instability and tariffs expected to sustain prices [4] - The report suggests that the recent downturn in US equities has led to increased asset allocation towards gold, making it a significant beneficiary of the current market conditions [4] - The analysis indicates a potential short-term price correction for gold due to overbought conditions, with a possible price range of $3000 to $2700 serving as important support [5] Group 3: Market Trends and Predictions - The upcoming week may see reduced volatility due to non-farm payroll data and the Labor Day holiday, but the downward adjustment trend from 3500 has not concluded [7] - The market is expected to continue its downward trajectory, with targets set at 3230 and 3165, which are key Fibonacci retracement levels [7] - Short-term support for gold is identified at 765 to 752, with resistance at 790 [7]

| 11/11/2 | 国投期采 | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年04月29日 | | 黄金 | ななな | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | 女女女 | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 1 【星级说明】红色星级代表预判趋势性上涨,绿色星级代表预判趋势性下跌 ★☆☆ 一颗星代表偏多/空,判断趋势有上涨/下跌的驱动,但盘面可操作性不强 ★★☆ 两颗星代表持多/空,不仅判断较为明晰的上涨/下跌趋势,且行情正在盘面发酵 ★★★ 三颗星代表更加明晰的多/空趋势,且当前仍具备相对恰当的投资机会 白星代表短期多/空趋势处在一种相对均衡状态中,且当前盘面可操作性较差,以观望为主 今日贵金属延续震荡。印度和巴基斯坦之间冲突再度体现地缘乱局,特朗普关税政策前景依然扑朔选离,美 元信用危机和全球政经局势不确定性支撑金价中长期重心上移趋势。本周美国有非农等重要经 ...

Core Viewpoint - The capital market is experiencing a pre-holiday trend, with gold prices fluctuating around $3,300 per ounce, despite a recent peak of $3,500 per ounce amid trade war concerns. Gold has shown a year-to-date increase of over 26%, making it the best-performing asset class globally [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - Gold prices have experienced significant volatility, reaching a historical high of $3,500 per ounce on April 22, followed by a decline, closing down 1.3% on the same day [1]. - Despite recent fluctuations, gold prices have maintained a strong upward trend, with a notable increase in consumer prices for gold jewelry in China, moving from around 600 RMB per gram to over 1,000 RMB per gram [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global gold supply is projected to be stable, with total supply estimated between 4,780 tons and 5,000 tons from 2022 to 2024, primarily from mining production [4]. - In 2024, global jewelry manufacturers are expected to use 2,004 tons of gold, a decrease of 187 tons from 2023, indicating a cautious approach due to high prices [4]. - Domestic gold jewelry consumption in China for Q1 2024 was 134.531 tons, a slight decrease of 50 tons compared to the same period in 2023 [4]. Group 3: Investment Trends - The trading volume of gold futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange surged by 91.17% year-on-year in the first three months of 2025, with a transaction value increase of 143.69% [5]. - The amount held in gold ETFs in China increased by 23.47 tons to 138.21 tons by the end of March 2025, reflecting strong investor interest [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that gold prices will continue to rise due to ongoing U.S. fiscal deficits and increasing market expectations for interest rate cuts, which could further support gold's value [6].

文/曹萌 五一假期临近，资本市场似乎进入了提前放假的行情。就连今年大热的黄金，也已围绕着3300美 元/盎司一线震荡了多日。 过去的一周里，伦敦现货金经历了一轮过山车行情。从大幅上涨到大幅回撤，再到如今"不疼不 痒"的小幅震荡。虽然现在处于冷静期的金价有些无趣，但也让人对后市行情"浮想联翩"。 4月22日，在全球萦绕着对贸易战升级担忧的气氛中，伦敦现货金触摸到了3500美元/盎司的又一历 史新高。但随后便一路下行，不仅当日收跌1.3%，更丢掉了刚刚到手的3400美元/盎司关口。尽管 这波下跌来势汹汹，但国际金价今年以来仍以26%以上的涨幅，坐稳全球大类资产表现最佳的宝 座。 可能按照国际单位计算金价上涨幅度，对于 大众 来说并不直观。 因此，换个角度来看，2024年年 初，北京菜百人头攒动，那时千足金金饰价格不过600元/克左右，而现在已迈入克金千元时代。 伴随金价不留喘息的上涨，你应该会听到身边的朋友这样说："我当时就是买少了。"而无论是真的 投资，还是对金饰情有独钟，涨了，赚了，知足常乐。 金银因其稀缺、可分割等特性自然而然成为了货币的首选材料。但在上世纪70年代，布雷顿森林货 币体系崩塌后，由于美元与黄 ...

Group 1: Dollar Credit Impact on Gold Prices - The increasing fiscal pressure and concerns over Federal Reserve independence are undermining dollar credit, accelerating gold price increases. As of April 22, 2025, gold prices surged to $3,400-$3,500 per ounce, with key ratios like gold-silver, gold-copper, and gold-oil breaking historical thresholds[6][11] - The total U.S. public debt reached $36.2 trillion by the end of March 2025, with interest payments accounting for over 13% of fiscal expenditures in 2024[6] - The market is witnessing a "triple kill" of dollar assets (stocks, bonds, and currency), leading to a flight to gold as a traditional currency anchor[6] Group 2: Risks from Stablecoin Issuance - The recent GENIUS Act passed by the U.S. Senate on March 13, 2025, is expected to boost stablecoin issuance from $230 billion to $2 trillion by the end of 2028, creating $1.6 trillion in new demand for short-term Treasury bills[3][27] - Stablecoins like USDT and USDC are becoming widely used for cross-border payments, with USDT's market cap at approximately $147 billion and USDC at around $62 billion as of April 27, 2025[14][18] - The issuance of stablecoins may counteract the current sell-off in U.S. Treasuries, potentially leading to a risk of gold price corrections as dollar credit stabilizes[27] Group 3: Signs of Shallow Recession in the U.S. - The U.S. economy is showing signs of weakening, with the unemployment rate at 4.2% in March 2025 and a significant decline in consumer confidence as indicated by the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index[28][29] - As of April 23, 2025, 27% of S&P 500 companies have downgraded their earnings expectations for 2025, while only 9% have raised them, indicating a bearish outlook[28] - The likelihood of a recession in Q2 2025 is increasing, driven by significant corrections in U.S. asset prices, impacting household wealth[28] Group 4: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Outlook - The market anticipates a high probability of a 100 basis point rate cut in 2025, with the next cut expected in June, as indicated by the CME model[32][34] - The March FOMC dot plot showed a majority of committee members favoring a 50 basis point cut in 2025, suggesting a shift in monetary policy to address economic concerns[32][37] - Trump's recent statements indicate a potential easing of tensions with the Federal Reserve, which may stabilize market expectations regarding dollar credit[32] Group 5: Risk Factors - Potential risks include Trump's fluctuating statements, unexpected rebounds in overseas inflation, and the U.S. economy maintaining stability, which could all impact the outlook for gold prices and dollar credit[39]

Group 1: Precious Metals - Gold - The short-term volatility of gold prices is expected to increase, while the medium to long-term outlook remains positive [2][6] - As of April 25, the COMEX gold futures contract decreased by 0.33% to $3,330.2 per ounce, and the SPDR Gold ETF fell by 0.6% to 946.27 tons [2][6] - Market expectations are being adjusted due to the fluctuating policies of Trump, which is likely to continue impacting gold prices [2][6] Group 2: Industrial Metals - Copper - As of April 25, the SHFE copper futures contract rose by 1.7% to 77,440 yuan per ton, with domestic copper social inventory at 181,700 tons, a decrease of 51,700 tons [3] - The market sentiment is recovering marginally, but remains relatively low due to uncertainties surrounding Trump's policies [3] - The demand for copper is expected to improve as domestic policies are implemented, with a tightening supply trend anticipated [3][6] Group 3: Industrial Metals - Aluminum - As of April 25, the SHFE aluminum futures contract increased by 1.7% to 20,030 yuan per ton, with domestic aluminum social inventory at 658,000 tons, down by 31,000 tons [4][5] - The traditional consumption peak season is approaching, leading to an increase in operating rates among downstream processing enterprises [5] - The aluminum price is expected to rise in the second quarter due to improved demand expectations from both domestic and overseas markets [5][6] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The company suggests focusing on gold, copper, and aluminum sectors, with specific recommendations for Chifeng Gold, Zijin Mining, and Tianshan Shares [6]

美军对胡塞武装的持续空袭正将中东地缘冲突推向新阶段。4月23日，美军战机三次轰炸也门马里卜省目标，而胡塞武装则宣称击落美军MQ-9"死神"无人机 并袭击美军航母战斗群。这场军事博弈背后，是伊朗支持的胡塞武装通过红海航运袭扰扩大影响力，与美国维护"航行自由"霸权之间的结构性矛盾。当前冲 突已突破区域性对抗范畴，其外溢效应正在重塑全球资产定价逻辑。 黄金市场呈现典型的风险对冲特征：3月突破3000美元/盎司后，金价在地缘风险与美联储降息预期的双重驱动下维持高位震荡。但美元指数在4月17日美联 储主席鲍威尔释放"高利率维持更久"信号后强势反弹，给黄金涨势蒙上阴影。值得注意的是，美国36.6万亿美元国债规模与持续扩表的"非常规货币政策"， 正在动摇美元信用根基。这种矛盾在资产端表现为美债市场流动性枯竭——单日1.2万亿美元QE操作已难掩市场对美元体系的信任裂痕。 三大灰犀牛威胁市场稳定 当前局势暗藏三大系统性风险：其一，若红海冲突长期化，原油运输成本持续攀升将迫使全球央行在抗通胀与稳增长间作出艰难抉择；其二，美联储虽维持 鹰派姿态，但美债市场流动性危机可能倒逼政策提前转向，届时美元或重演"避险贬值"悖论；其三，沙特等 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold is reaffirming its value as a hedge against financial turmoil, driven by concerns over U.S. tariffs, inflation pressures, and the erosion of dollar credibility [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Historical Context - Gold has been recognized as a universal value for over 4,000 years, possessing natural currency attributes due to its physical properties and scarcity [1] - The decoupling of the dollar from gold in the 1970s marked the beginning of the "de-monetization" narrative for gold, coinciding with the rise of economic globalization [1] Recent Trends - Since the dollar's decoupling from gold in 1971, gold prices have experienced three significant surges: - From $35 to $850 during the 1970-1980 stagflation period [1] - From $700 to $1920 during the 2008 financial crisis [1] - Surpassing $2000 in 2020 amid the pandemic and global monetary easing [1] - The current economic environment, characterized by U.S. tariffs and domestic financial challenges, is driving gold prices upward [1] Central Bank Actions - Central banks globally are accumulating gold at an unprecedented rate, with purchases exceeding 1,000 tons for the third consecutive year in 2024 [1] - This collective action is aimed at hedging against dollar risks and is seen as a strategic move to reshape the international monetary system [1] - An increase of 100 tons in central bank gold demand is estimated to raise gold prices by 2% [1] Investment Considerations - While gold is viewed positively, ordinary investors face risks due to potential price volatility influenced by U.S. policy changes and geopolitical shifts [1] - Historical instances of significant price drops, such as an 18% decline within three months, highlight the need for caution [1] - Financial institutions are warning about the risks of gold investment, particularly for those using high leverage [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that after the implementation of tariff policies in April 2025, gold prices are expected to experience significant volatility, driven by escalating US-China tariff tensions, a pressured US dollar, cautious Federal Reserve policy expectations, and heightened global risk aversion [1] - Long-term support for gold prices is attributed to safe-haven demand, with tariffs and geopolitical instability acting as key factors [1] - The recent downturn in US equities has led to a strong asset allocation demand for gold from European and American funds, making gold a significant beneficiary of the current US stock market decline [1] Group 2 - The narrative of a collapse in dollar credit is emerging, with structural dollar depreciation benefiting gold as a primary asset, alongside central bank gold purchases reflecting this trend [2] - The pricing framework for TIPS has become ineffective, as market risk aversion has begun to dominate gold pricing, influenced by changes in the dollar credit system and central bank purchasing behavior [5] - Central banks view gold as an alternative to the dollar, with geopolitical factors driving its pricing, and concerns over weak US stocks and the dollar contributing to the recent increase in global ETF gold holdings [6] Group 3 - The pricing logic of gold is likely changing, with gold no longer being merely an appendage to the dollar system but gradually becoming a rival to it [8] - The true signal for asset price revaluation is found in gold prices rather than in the RMB to USD exchange rate or interest rate paths, indicating that RMB gold prices are becoming the true monetary anchor for China [8] - Current RMB gold prices are more aligned with a "Shanghai-led" pricing model rather than the previous "USD gold price and exchange rate" triangular conversion [8]