一名参议员接受采访时表示，"此次停摆将会持续一段时间。我认为这将是美国历史上持续时间最长的 一次停摆。" 此前报道，美国参议院9日仍未能通过新的临时拨款法案，联邦政府继续"停摆"。 （文章来源：中国新闻网） 中新网10月16日电据美国政治新闻网Politico报道，当地时间10月15日，美国参议院以51票对44票的投 票结果，再次未能推进共和党的临时拨款法案。 据报道，参议院15日第九次否决了由共和党主导的临时拨款法案。报道称，政府停摆或将至少持续到下 周。 报道称，参议院预计将于16日再次就众议院通过的临时拨款法案进行投票。报道称，尚未有合理预期证 明将有不同结果出现。 ...

根据美国司法部14日提交给法庭的一份声明，自政府"停摆"以来，已有4108名联邦雇员遭解雇。白宫管 理和预算办公室当天在社交媒体上发帖说，将继续实施裁员计划，同时为应对政府"停摆"持续，该机 构"正做好准备严阵以待"。 由于共和、民主两党在医保相关福利支出等核心议题上分歧巨大，参议院未能在9月30日上一财年结束 前通过新的临时拨款法案，导致联邦政府维持正常运转的资金耗尽，于10月1日起"停摆"。 美国总统特朗普14日继续向民主党施压，以期对方改变在医保相关福利开支等议题上的立场。 据新华社电美国国会参议院14日依旧未能通过新的临时拨款法案，联邦政府"停摆"进入第三周。 这是参议院第八次对共和党提出、已获众议院通过的临时拨款法案进行投票。当天，该法案依然未能获 得通过所需的60张赞成票，联邦政府"停摆"被拖入第三周。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **One Star (Bullish/Bearish)**: Corn, indicating a bullish trend but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - **Three Stars (Clear Bullish/Bearish)**: Soybean, Soybean Meal, Rapeseed Meal, Egg, suggesting a clear bullish or bearish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - **White Stars (Balanced)**: Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Live Pig, representing a short - term balanced state between bullish and bearish trends and poor operability on the trading floor [1] Report's Core View - The overall supply of agricultural products in the fourth quarter is generally stable, but there are uncertainties in the first quarter of next year due to factors such as trade relations and policies [3] - For different agricultural products, there are various influencing factors including supply - demand relationships, policy changes, and international trade situations, and investment strategies should be adjusted according to different product characteristics [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - Domestic soybeans are continuing to rebound. New domestic soybeans are on the market, and CGSGB is auctioning old soybeans with good transaction results at an average price of 3900 yuan/ton. Domestic soybeans are stronger than imported ones, and the price difference is widening. The export demand of US soybeans is a concern, and its price may be pressured by the demand side [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The main contract of Dalian soybean futures has a slight reduction in positions and a rebound. As of October 10, the inventory of imported soybeans in major domestic oil mills is 812 million tons, with sufficient arrivals. Domestic soybean production is expected to reach 2100 million tons. The supply in the fourth quarter is generally stable, but it may be tight in the first quarter of next year if Sino - US trade relations deteriorate. The sales progress of US soybeans is slow, and relevant policies are postponed. The domestic soybean meal futures are in a data vacuum period, and it is recommended to wait and see [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Due to the weak global crude oil price and uncertainties in Sino - US trade, risk assets are under pressure. In the international market, the near - term demand for palm oil is weak, but there is an expectation of increased biodiesel blending in the long - term. Palm oil enters the production - reduction cycle in the fourth quarter. Domestic soybean oil has a high inventory. In the long - term, oils are expected to be more resilient, and it is recommended to buy on dips after the price bottoms out [4][5] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Today, rapeseed meal is stronger than rapeseed oil, but the overall fluctuation is small, and the trend is weaker than that of competitors. There are uncertainties in Sino - US and Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations. The data gap caused by the US government shutdown makes the market more concerned about macro factors. The price difference between rapeseed products and competitors is still high, and it is recommended to focus on cross - competitor strategies with rapeseed products as short positions. The short - term unilateral trend of rapeseed products is expected to be volatile [6] Corn - The Dalian corn futures are rebounding from the bottom. In the Huanghuai region, corn harvesting and drying are affected by rain. The new wheat planting is postponed, causing the wheat price to rise. The price of new corn in the Northeast is falling, but the scope is narrowing. The production of new - season corn in the Northeast is likely to increase. The opening price of corn in the Northeast has dropped, and the impact of the purchase price of Heilongjiang's state - owned grain depots is currently small. The bottom of the corn price is weak, but the phased bottom is approaching [7] Live Pig - The spot and futures prices of live pigs are deviating. The spot price is rebounding, supported by second - fattening in some areas, while the futures price is weak. The current spot price is in the range of 10 - 11 yuan/kg, which is at the bottom of the historical cycle. The scale of enterprise slaughter is expected to increase in October. The industry is starting to reduce production capacity, which will support the futures contracts in the second half of next year [8] Egg - The spot price of eggs is slightly rising, while the futures price is weak. The chicken - chick replenishment sentiment is poor, and the number of newly - laying hens at the end of the year is expected to decrease. The egg price is at the cash - flow balance or loss state, and the old - hen culling progress is slow. There is a risk of further price decline in the medium - term [9]

新华社北京10月15日电 美国政府"停摆"已经两周，目前仍没有短期内能结束的迹象。与此同时，共和、民主两党继续斗得火热。共和党提出的 短期拨款法案14日在参议院第八次未获通过。总统特朗普宣布，将公布一份清单，上面是他要砍掉的"民主党项目"。 两党相互攻讦 这是10月12日在美国华盛顿拍摄的国会大厦。新华社记者李睿摄 | AUSTIN | | Southwest | 830 | 5:40 PM | A4 | NOW 5:50 PM | | DALLAS, DAL | Southwest 2301 | | 5:45 PM | A8 | Delayed 6:02 PM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | BATON ROUGE | | American | 5483 | 7:59 PM | D43A | On Time | 15 | DALLAS, DFW | American | 1244 | 3:15 PM | D41 | Delayed 4:05 PM | | BOS ...

Group 1 - The core issue of the current U.S. government shutdown is the disagreement between the two parties regarding healthcare subsidies, with the Democrats insisting on including related provisions in the funding bill while the Republicans advocate for a temporary bill to reopen the government first [1][4]. - The U.S. government is experiencing its first shutdown in seven years, which has now entered its third week, exceeding the historical average duration of shutdowns [2][4]. - Economic impacts of the shutdown are estimated to be a 0.1% drag on GDP growth for each week it continues, although this impact is likely to be reversed once the government reopens [5]. Group 2 - The current macroeconomic environment in the U.S. shows signs of weakness in the job market, as indicated by the negative ADP employment data for September [6][10]. - Consumer spending data remains resilient, supported by durable goods consumption, while the housing market shows some positive signals, potentially linked to declining mortgage rates [7][9]. - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve may continue to lower interest rates in October and December, with probabilities of 94% and 80% respectively for a 25 basis point cut [10]. Group 3 - In light of the government shutdown and the current economic policy environment, the company recommends maintaining a focus on large-cap technology stocks for investment, while also considering tactical timing and structural opportunities for excess returns [10]. - For U.S. bonds, the company suggests looking into short to medium-duration bonds, which are less affected by interest rate declines, and also recommends positioning for a steepening yield curve strategy, while being cautious of inflation and the independence of the Federal Reserve [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metals returned to an upward trend. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 2.09%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 2.30%. The short - term safe - haven demand increased due to the trade war and the US government shutdown, and the risk of stagflation in the US economy rose with weak employment and moderate inflation, leading to the realization of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation. The precious metals are expected to fluctuate upwards in the short term and rise step - by - step in the long term [2]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare Silver ETF slightly increased. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver slightly decreased [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Core Logic**: Short - term safe - haven demand increased due to the trade war and the US government shutdown. The risk of stagflation in the US economy increased with weak employment and moderate inflation, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation began to be realized. Trump's trade war escalation, the US government shutdown, and the French Prime Minister's resignation increased market uncertainty. The Fed Chairman hinted at a possible halt to balance - sheet contraction, and Fed officials warned of negative employment growth. The market expected a 90% probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in October and about 2 more rate cuts this year. The London silver 1 - month implied lease rate soared, and the silver spot was in short supply. The CRB commodity index rebounded under pressure, and the RMB appreciation was negative for domestic prices [2]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2][3]. - **Data Summary**: International gold prices (Comex gold and London gold) increased, with daily increases of 0.72% - 0.74% and weekly increases of 3.70% - 3.79%. Domestic gold prices (Shanghai Gold main contract and Gold T + D) also rose significantly, with daily increases of 1.97% - 2.27% and weekly increases of 9.83% - 10.00%. Positions and inventories showed different trends, with some increasing and some decreasing [3]. Silver - **Core Logic**: The price of silver is anchored by the price of gold. The net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare Silver ETF slightly increased, and the recent explicit inventory of silver slightly decreased [5]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [6]. - **Data Summary**: International silver prices (Comex silver and London silver) increased, with daily increases of 0.95% - 6.86% and weekly increases of 4.91% - 5.51%. Domestic silver prices (Shanghai Silver main contract and Silver T + D) also rose, with daily increases of 3.74% - 3.75% and weekly increases of 9.60% - 10.17%. Positions generally increased, and inventories decreased [6]. Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related Data**: The federal funds target rate upper limit, discount rate, and reserve balance interest rate decreased by 0.25%. The Fed's total assets increased by 42.68 billion US dollars (0.00%). M2 increased by 0.23% year - on - year. The 10 - year US Treasury real yield decreased by 2.52%. The US dollar index decreased by 0.21% daily and increased by 0.19% weekly [8]. - **Other Key Indicators**: The US Treasury yield spreads, US - EU and US - China yield spreads, and inflation - related indicators showed different trends. US economic growth, labor market, real estate market, consumption, industry, trade, and other aspects also had various changes [10]. - **Other Data**: Central bank gold reserves in some countries changed slightly. The proportion of gold in foreign exchange reserves increased in some cases. The geopolitical risk index increased, the VIX index decreased, the CRB commodity index increased, and the offshore RMB slightly decreased [12].

事实上，近段时间以来，市场对于人民币逆势强势的表现多有关注，并认为人民币或进入新一轮升值周 期。 人民币汇率释放强力"稳"信号。 10月15日，人民币汇率中间价报7.0995，较前一日上调26点，为去年10月下旬来首次升至7.10上方。 尽管近期国际范围内不确定性因素增多，但有关"人民币升值窗口开启"的讨论在逐步升温。后续看，专 家认为，多重因素有望支持人民币汇率保持稳中偏强。 中间价保持偏强 人民币汇率稳定有内在动力 "中间价收复了7.10关口，并创下了自2024年10月21日以来的升值新高。"跨境金融研究院发布观点称， 这一现象值得关注，而且，市场实时即期汇率也在中间价的引导下呈现升值态势。 10月15日，离岸人民币对美元汇率直线拉升，日内上涨约200点；在岸人民币对美元汇率则持稳于7.12 附近。截至13时30分，离岸、在岸人民币对美元汇率分别报7.1286、7.1256。 "我们可以观察到反映境内美元流动性的关键指标-境内金融机构外汇存款同比增速在今年向上突破了人 民币汇率升贬周期切换的阈值6%—10%水平，表明人民币汇率进入升值周期。"兴业研究外汇商品部首 席汇率研究院郭嘉沂表示，今年美国进入第二库 ...

10月15日，A股主要股指集体收高。 上证指数涨超1%，重上3900点；创业板指涨超2%，热门科技权重全线反弹。电力设备及新能源、汽车、保险等板块涨幅居前。 Wind金融终端输入命令 WBUY（万得交易快线） 一次开户，基金市场一键链接 国家统计局发布最新物价数据显示， 9月PPI同比下降2.3%，降幅比上月收窄0.6个百分点；9月核心CPI同比上涨1.0%，为近19个月以来涨幅首次降至 1%。 此外，10月15日早上，人民币兑美元中间价报7.0995，上调26点， 为去年11月来首次升至7.10元上方 。离岸人民币兑美元一度直线拉升超100点。 广发证券认为，本次美国政府停摆对经济数据的影响可能更大，金融市场的不确定性加大，加速资金从美国向非美国家流动。美元指数及人民币汇率反应 较上一轮更迅速，美元贬值、人民币迅速升值。跨境回流对国内流动性的支撑预计持续到明年一季度，但年底可能面临购汇额度等因素短期扰动。 海外方面，当地时间10月14日，美联储主席鲍威尔暗示，可能在未来几个月停止收缩资产负债表，他承认货币市场出现了紧缩的"一些迹象"。 鲍威尔还暗示 ，即使政府停摆严重削弱了美联储对经济形势的掌握程度，但仍 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Cotton**: ICE US cotton fell 0.25% to 63.43 cents/pound on Tuesday, CF601 decreased 0.15% to 13,265 yuan/ton, and the main contract's open interest increased by 4,581 lots to 568,000 lots. The international market focuses on the macro - level, with the US government in a shutdown and a data vacuum. Short - term US cotton is expected to remain in low - level oscillations. In the domestic market, new cotton has a strong harvest expectation, with faster picking, delivery, and inspection progress. Supply pressure will persist. Short - term Zhengzhou cotton is under pressure but has few major negative factors, so it is expected to operate under pressure [1]. - **Sugar**: Brazil's exports of sugar and molasses in the first two weeks of October increased by 9.45% year - on - year. Domestic sugar spot prices were lowered, and the raw sugar's rebound from a 4.5 - year low drove a slight rebound in domestic futures prices. However, due to the over - supply problem, the rebound is weak. The domestic market lacks strong drivers, and it is expected to have a weak oscillation. Future attention should be paid to the beet sugar pressing progress and the estimated output of cane sugar [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was - 55, up 5; the main basis was 1,490, up 1. The Xinjiang spot price was 14,598 yuan/ton, down 44; the national spot price was 14,755 yuan/ton, down 34 [2]. - **Sugar**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 26, down 4; the main basis was 403, up 53. The Nanning spot price was 5,810 yuan/ton, up 10; the Liuzhou spot price was 5,800 yuan/ton, down 20 [2]. 3.2 Market Information - **Cotton**: On October 14, the cotton futures warehouse receipt quantity was 2,823, down 44, with 52 valid forecasts. The cotton arrival prices in different regions were: Xinjiang 14,598 yuan/ton, Henan 14,868 yuan/ton, Shandong 14,758 yuan/ton, and Zhejiang 14,947 yuan/ton. The yarn comprehensive load was 50.9, up 0.2; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 26.1, up 0.1; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 52, unchanged; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 29.3, unchanged [3]. - **Sugar**: On October 14, the Nanning sugar spot price was 5,810 yuan/ton, up 10; the Liuzhou sugar spot price was 5,800 yuan/ton, down 20. The sugar futures warehouse receipt quantity was 8,488, down 193, with 0 valid forecasts [3][4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Cotton**: There are charts showing the closing price of the main cotton contract, the main contract basis, the 1 - 5 spread, the 1% tariff quota internal - external spread, the warehouse receipt and valid forecast, and the China Cotton Price Index: 3218B [6][9][10]. - **Sugar**: There are charts showing the closing price of the main sugar contract, the main contract basis, the 1 - 5 spread, and the warehouse receipt and valid forecast [12][15]. 3.4 Research Team - The research team includes Zhang Xiaojin, a resource product research director focusing on the sugar industry; Zhang Linglu, responsible for research on urea, soda ash, and glass futures; and Sun Chengzhen, engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloy [17][18][19].

Core Points - The U.S. Senate failed to pass a new temporary funding bill, leading to the federal government shutdown entering its third week [1] - The Senate voted for the eighth time on a temporary funding bill proposed by the Republican Party, which had already passed the House of Representatives, but it did not receive the necessary 60 votes for approval [1] - The shutdown began on October 1 after the Senate could not agree on key issues such as healthcare-related spending before the end of the previous fiscal year on September 30 [1] Government Impact - Since the government shutdown began, 4,108 federal employees have been laid off according to a statement from the U.S. Department of Justice [1] - The Office of Management and Budget announced plans to continue layoffs and is preparing for the ongoing shutdown [1] - The National President of the Federal Employees Union accused the Trump administration of "illegally firing" thousands of employees who provide essential services to communities and has filed a lawsuit to overturn the layoffs [1]