Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects Switzerland's economic growth rate to be 1.2% in 2026, highlighting significant risks, particularly external ones [1] Economic Outlook - Switzerland's economy is facing major risks, especially from external factors such as geopolitical tensions, fluctuations in energy prices, trade uncertainties, and tariffs [1]

Group 1: Trade and Tariffs - President Trump indicated that Japan is facing a serious rice shortage while not accepting U.S. rice, and plans to send a letter regarding tariffs to Japan [2] - U.S. Agriculture Secretary mentioned that Trump may exempt tariffs on agricultural products that are difficult to grow in the U.S. [2] - Media reports suggest U.S. officials are seeking to narrow the scope of trade agreements, aiming to reach a deal by July 9 [2] Group 2: Commodity Market Updates - Brent crude oil prices are expected to fall to around $60 per barrel by early next year according to Morgan Stanley [2] - Gold has achieved its largest half-year increase since 2007 [2] - Chile's copper production in May increased by 9.4% year-on-year to 486,574 tons according to Chile's National Statistics Institute [2] Group 3: Supply Chain and Production Insights - The combination of Trump's tariffs and low water levels has led to severe supply chain congestion in European ports, the worst since the pandemic began [2] - Kazakhstan's oil production is projected to exceed expectations by 2% this year, reaching 2 million barrels per day due to anticipated increases in output from large oil fields [2] - The European Commission's Vice President announced that the EU has reached a preliminary agreement on the export of Ukrainian agricultural products [2] Group 4: Market Forecasts - Citi forecasts that the supply gap in the gold market is expected to peak in Q3 2025, followed by a gradual decline due to decreasing investment demand [2] - Indonesia has raised its July reference price for crude palm oil to $877.89 per ton [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Trump's tariffs and trade tensions remain a significant risk for Asia [1] - Vietnam is identified as the most vulnerable country due to its heavy reliance on final demand from the United States [1] - The report anticipates a slight slowdown in GDP growth across most of Asia this year [1] Group 2 - In the context of weak economic growth and low inflation rates, further interest rate cuts are likely in many parts of Asia in the coming months [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, focus on labor market data and the progress after the end of the first tariff easing period. If there is marginal deterioration in these two aspects, it will drive up the price of gold in the short - term. If they remain stable, the market risk appetite may not decline significantly, and gold may need time to adjust and accumulate strength [1][3]. - The gold - silver ratio fluctuates around the 90 level. The short - term recovery of market risk appetite supports the silver price, but the decline of the gold price drags down the silver price. Without the resonance of their attributes, silver is difficult to have excess performance and is expected to continue the volatile consolidation trend in the short - term [1][3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Key Information - Trump is dissatisfied with the US - Japan auto trade deficit and may impose a 25% tariff on Japanese cars. The negotiation deadline is July 9. The Japanese negotiation representative extended the stay in the US, but the US has not unified its stance. Japan's holding of over one trillion US Treasuries may be a bargaining chip. Canada cancelled the digital service tax to promote US - Canada trade negotiations, showing its dependence on the US as US - Canada trade accounts for 20% of Canada's GDP [2]. - US Treasury Secretary Besent said that the tariff issue may return to the level of April 2. A wave of trade agreements is expected to be signed intensively in the last week before July 9. He also pointed out that no inflation pressure caused by tariffs has been observed, but there may be a one - time price adjustment [2]. - Germany's preliminary June CPI increased 2.0% year - on - year (expected 2.2%, May final 2.1%), and was flat month - on - month (expected 0.2%, May final 0.1%). The preliminary harmonized CPI increased 2.0% year - on - year (expected 2.2%, May final 2.1%), and increased 0.1% month - on - month (expected 0.3%, May final 0.2%) [2]. Price Logic - The price of precious metals continued to fluctuate and adjust during the day. The recent rise in risk appetite has put pressure on the gold price. Although the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut has slightly increased, it is difficult to drive the gold price significantly. The weekly COMEX gold price is expected to be in the range of [3200, 3450], and the weekly COMEX silver price is expected to be in the range of [34, 38] [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock market sentiment is warm, and the bond market continues to fluctuate. For stock index futures, sentiment is positive with healthy long - short position changes; for stock index options, a covered defense strategy is recommended; for treasury bond futures, the bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - **Market Conditions**: IF, IH, IC, and IM's current - month basis, inter - period spreads, and positions changed. The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated higher on Monday, with small - cap sentiment remaining active. Large - cap stocks retreated after capital congestion, and funds flowed to small - cap stocks. IM saw healthy long - short position changes, with a significant decrease in positions and wider intraday discounts [7]. - **Logic**: Geopolitical risks eased, the tariff deadline was postponed, and the market shifted its focus to internal profit improvement as the interim report announcements approached. - **Operation Suggestion**: Continue to allocate long IM contracts [7]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating upward 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - **Market Conditions**: The equity market oscillated upward with sectoral divergence. Although sentiment indicators rose with the underlying assets, the trading volume in the options market declined significantly, and trading liquidity was lower than expected [7]. - **Logic**: In a low - liquidity derivatives market, sentiment indicators showed synchronicity but no guiding effect. Implied volatility only corresponded to daily market fluctuations, and all varieties showed a decline in volatility in the morning. - **Operation Suggestion**: Adopt a covered defense strategy [7]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Conditions**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. T, TF, TS, and TL's main contracts changed by - 0.16%, - 0.10%, - 0.05%, and - 0.43% respectively. Trading volume, positions, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and basis all had corresponding changes [3][8][9]. - **Logic**: The central bank's second - quarter policy statement was positive, the end - of - month capital tightened, the June PMI was better than expected, and the stock - bond seesaw effect was evident. At the beginning of the month, the capital may seasonally loosen, but the central bank may be cautious in liquidity injection, and the supply of new local bonds in July may remain high [3][9][10]. - **Operation Suggestion**: For trend strategies, maintain an oscillating view; for hedging strategies, focus on short - hedging at low basis levels; for basis strategies, appropriately focus on basis widening; for curve strategies, steepening the curve in the medium term has higher odds [10]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating 3.2 Economic Calendar - The official manufacturing PMI in China in June was 49.7, better than the previous value of 49.5. The US will release the June ISM manufacturing index on July 1st, the June unemployment rate and non - farm payrolls change on July 3rd [11]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - **Domestic Bond Market**: As of the end of May, overseas institutions' custodial balance in the Chinese bond market was 4.4 trillion yuan, accounting for 2.3% of the total. In the inter - bank bond market, the balance was 4.3 trillion yuan. Overseas institutions held 2.1 trillion yuan of treasury bonds, 1.2 trillion yuan of negotiable certificates of deposit, and 0.8 trillion yuan of policy - bank bonds [11]. - **Overseas Macroeconomy**: The US Senate procedurally voted to pass the "Great Beauty" tax and spending bill pushed by President Trump. The bill is estimated to increase the US federal government's debt by about $3.8 trillion in the next 10 years [12]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions data on stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but specific data details are not fully presented in the provided text.

Group 1: Silver Futures Market - Silver futures are currently trading below 8707, with an opening price of 8737 and a current price of 8714, reflecting a slight decline of 0.01% [1] - The highest price reached today was 8763, while the lowest dipped to 8706, indicating a bearish short-term trend in the silver futures market [1] - Key resistance level is identified at 9045, corresponding to the 5-day moving average, with a potential trend reversal signal if the price breaks above 9060 [4] Group 2: Colombian Flower Industry - The trade dispute between Colombia and the U.S. over immigration issues has ongoing impacts on Colombia's flower industry, which is the second-largest flower exporter globally [2] - Colombia's flower industry, which employs over 200,000 people, is facing a tightening of its economic lifeline due to a 10% additional tariff imposed during the Trump administration [2] - The question of who bears the tariff burden highlights the collective anxiety among flower farmers, as rising costs threaten their profit margins and survival [2] Group 3: Supply Chain Collaboration - A shift towards supply chain collaboration has emerged, with stakeholders using data to visualize trade costs and improve efficiency [3] - The collaboration among logistics providers, importers, and wholesalers has transformed the pressure of tariff burdens into a shared responsibility, aiding in market adjustment [3] - Despite these adjustments, Colombian flower farmers remain aware of the uncertainties posed by geopolitical tensions [3]

围绕日美关税谈判，日本此前先后在造船及航空等领域，以及对中国一度限制出口的稀土供应 方面提出与美国合作，但这些并未打动特朗普，双方一直未能谈拢。相反，特朗普近日还再次就对日贸 易逆差表达不满，加大施压…… 日美关税谈判正面临困局。日本经济财政再生相赤泽亮正于美国东部时间6月27日与美国商务部长卢特 尼克进行了磋商，但未能与美方谈判负责人、财政部长贝森特会面便返回日本。日本未能就美国总统特 朗普所要求的削减贸易逆差提出有效解的决方案，谈判陷入苦战。 赤泽与卢特尼克27日进行了约1个小时的磋商，第二天的28日又通过电话进行了简短交流，但未能与贝 森特及美国贸易代表办公室（USTR）代表格里尔会面，并乘坐29日的航班返回日本。接下来计划继续 在事务层面展开协调。30日回到日本的赤泽在羽田机场对记者团表示："为了达成对日美双方都有利的 协议，将继续进行积极协调"。随后，他在日本首相官邸向首相石破茂汇报了谈判情况。 美国要求日本采取立竿见影，以措施削减美国对日贸易逆差。日本此前在不会立即为削减贸易逆差做出 贡献的造船及航空等领域提出了开展日美合作的方案。双方未能谈拢。 特朗普在6月29日播出的美国福克斯新闻（FOX N ...

法国总统马克龙在西班牙塞维利亚举行的发展筹资国际会议上发表讲话时表示，强国征收关税往往是一种“勒索”，而不是实现贸易再平衡的手段。马克龙还曾表示，在发动贸易战的同时要求欧洲人增加国防开支是一种精神错乱。美国白宫发言人莱维特驳斥马克龙的说法，坚称关税是重建美国制造业的有效工具。 ...

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彭博：欧盟愿意与美国达成一项贸易协定，同意美国对其多种出口产品征收10%的普遍关税，但正寻求美国承诺降低药品、酒、半导体和商用飞机等关键领域的关税。 ...