男生普通话版 下载mp3 女声普通话版 下载mp3 粤语版 下载mp3 西南方言版 下载mp3 东北话版 下载mp3 上海话版 下载mp3 今日优选 欧盟将把对美国的贸易反制措施暂停6个月 特朗普拟大幅提高印度关税税率 美联储戴利：降息时机临近，年内倾向于降息超两次 花旗上调未来0-3个月黄金价格预测 港汇走弱，香港金管局买入94.2亿港元 广电总局出手对付电视虚假宣传医药广告 市场盘点 周一，美元指数横盘震荡，最终小幅收涨0.05%，报98.708。美债收益率震荡走低，基准的10年期美债收益率收报4.197%，2年期美债收益率收报3.679%。 受益于降息预期的抬升，现货黄金连续第三个交易日上涨，一度站上3380美元关口，最终收涨0.32%，收报3373.56美元/盎司；现货白银同样延长涨势，最 终收涨0.99%，报37.41美元/盎司。 由于OPEC+再度大幅增产抵消了市场对俄油制裁可能引发供应短缺的担忧，国际原油跌至一周低点。WTI原油低开低走，最终收跌1.47%，报65.67美元/ 桶；布伦特原油最终收跌1.18%，报68.53美元/桶。 国际要闻 美股三大股指集体收涨，道指收涨1.34%，标普500 ...

Market Performance - Major U.S. indices saw significant gains, with the Dow Jones up 585.06 points (1.34%) closing at 44173.64, the Nasdaq up 403.45 points (1.95%) at 21053.58, and the S&P 500 up 91.93 points (1.47%) at 6329.94 [1] - Notable stock movements included Tesla rising 2%, Meta increasing by 3.5%, and Nvidia up 3.6% [1] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 1.3%, with Xpeng Motors up 4.4% and JD.com up 2.3% [1] European Market - European indices also experienced gains, with Germany's DAX30 up 288.36 points (1.23%) at 23759.73, the UK's FTSE 100 up 51.07 points (0.56%) at 9119.65, and France's CAC40 up 85.85 points (1.14%) at 7632.01 [1] Commodity Prices - Gold prices increased by 0.33%, reaching $3373.81 per ounce, with Citigroup raising its three-month gold price forecast from $3300 to $3500 per ounce [3] - Crude oil prices fell, with light crude oil futures down $1.04 to $66.29 per barrel (1.54% drop) and Brent crude down $0.91 to $68.76 per barrel (1.31% drop) [2] Currency Exchange Rates - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.36% to 98.786, with the euro rising to $1.1566 and the British pound to $1.3276 [2] Company News - American Eagle Outfitters (AEO.US) stock surged by 23.65%, marking its best single-day performance since 2000, following promotional support from former President Trump [8] - UBS Group (UBS.US) announced a $300 million settlement with the U.S. Department of Justice regarding Credit Suisse's subprime mortgage-related issues [9] - Morgan Stanley raised its target price for ExxonMobil (XOM.US) from $134 to $135 [10]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China, along with other regulatory bodies, released a draft for the management of customer due diligence for financial institutions, aiming to standardize behaviors and clarify risk-based requirements [2] - President Trump is set to announce new appointments for the Federal Reserve Board and the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which may impact economic policies and raise concerns about the credibility of U.S. economic data [2] - European companies are reducing their reliance on U.S. financial institutions due to trade pressures from Trump, with about half of non-U.S. companies issuing euro-denominated bonds without the involvement of major U.S. banks [2] Group 2 - A new tax on interest income from government bonds and local bonds will be reinstated starting August 8, with an estimated impact of a 2 to 3 basis point decrease in net investment returns for insurance companies [3] - The A-share market saw a rebound on August 4, with military industry stocks leading the gains, influenced by expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts and a strengthening yuan [3] - Tesla approved a stock award of 96 million shares to Elon Musk, valued at approximately $29 billion, to incentivize his continued leadership [3] Group 3 - The Zong family trust lawsuit involving $2.1 billion in assets is underway in Hong Kong, with disputes over the definition of trust assets [4] - Recent U.S. employment data showed a rise in unemployment and a slowdown in job growth, reinforcing market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut [5] - China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation announced plans to absorb China Shipbuilding Heavy Industry Company, leading to a potential suspension of trading [5]

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected conclusion of the U.S. government's 232 investigation into copper and the removal of tariffs on imported refined copper led to a significant drop in COMEX copper prices, eliminating the premium previously expected from tariffs. This was compounded by disappointing non-farm employment data, which reignited interest in potential interest rate cuts, providing some support for both gold and copper prices [1][3][4]. Group 1: Precious Metals Market Review - Last week, gold prices initially fell but later rebounded, with COMEX gold rising by 0.61% while silver dropped by 3.18%. SHFE gold and silver contracts also saw declines of 0.85% and 5.05%, respectively [2]. - The rebound in gold prices was supported by a significant drop in non-farm employment data, which was much lower than market expectations, leading to a notable increase in rate cut expectations. This, along with the resignation of a Federal Reserve governor, raised questions about the Fed's independence, causing the dollar and interest rates to decline sharply [4][21]. - The gold market is expected to have further upward potential due to ongoing concerns about U.S. monetary credit risks and potential recession risks [52]. Group 2: Copper Market Analysis - The U.S. government's announcement to end the 232 investigation and remove tariffs on imported refined copper caused a sharp decline in COMEX copper prices, which had previously been inflated by tariff expectations. The price gap between U.S. copper and other regions quickly narrowed [3][5]. - Following the FOMC meeting, where Fed Chair Powell maintained a hawkish stance, and strong economic data, the market adjusted its expectations for a September rate cut, putting additional pressure on copper prices. However, a significant accident at a Chilean copper mine and disappointing non-farm employment data provided some rebound momentum for copper prices [3][5]. - The domestic copper market is currently experiencing a consumption lull, with prices testing support levels around 78,000 yuan/ton. The expectation is that the removal of U.S. copper tariffs will lead to changes in global refined copper logistics, potentially increasing supply pressure in China [5][51].

北京时间今晨（8 月 1 日 20:30），美国 7 月非农数据重磅出炉： 新增就业仅 15.4 万人（预期 19 万，前值下修至 18.9 万）！ 失业率升至 5.1%（预期 4.9%，创 2024 年 3 月以来新高）！ 数据公布后： 美元指数暴跌 0.8%，击穿 102 关口！ 黄金 1 小时暴力拉升 38 美元，一举突破 2200 心理大关，最高触及 2215 美元 / 盎司（创 3 个月新 高）！ 一、 非农爆冷为何引爆黄金？2025 年最新逻辑链 核心驱动力：降息预期核爆级升温！ 9 月降息概率：数据公布前为 28%，公布后升至 68%，变动幅度 + 40%； 年内降息次数预期：数据公布前为 1-2 次，公布后变为 3-4 次，变动幅度翻倍。 UNFX 解读： 就业市场连续两个月走弱（6 月、7 月数据均不及预期），美联储 9 月启动降息已成定局！市场开始押 注降息幅度扩大至 100-125 基点（原预期 50 基点）→ 零息资产黄金吸引力暴增！ 多空分水岭：2188-2195 区间 强势支撑：2188（突破前高点转换支撑） 多头生命线：2173（7 月 28 日高点） 上行目标： 短期：2230 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The oil price is expected to be volatile and strong after a correction this week, and attention should be paid to the implementation of the extension of Sino - US reciprocal tariffs before August 12 [1]. - For precious metals, maintain the idea of buying on dips in the volatile trend [2]. - For copper, hold short positions [3]. - Aluminum is expected to continue to be under pressure and fluctuate in the short term [4]. - For casting aluminum alloy, consider a long - AD and short - AL strategy if the futures spread widens [5]. - For alumina, short on rebounds based on the recent high of 3500 yuan [6]. - For zinc, continue the idea of short on rebounds [7]. - For lead, it is advisable to hold long positions with the support of 16,600 yuan/ton [8]. - For nickel, look for opportunities to short [9]. - For tin, hold short positions at high levels [10]. - For lithium carbonate, try light - position long positions in the short term [11]. - For polysilicon, it is likely to have a wide - range shock in the range of 46,000 - 47,000 yuan/ton, and pay attention to position control [12]. - For industrial silicon, it is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [13]. - For rebar and hot - rolled coil, pay attention to the off - season demand承接 ability [14]. - For iron ore, it is expected to fluctuate mainly [15]. - For coke, the downside space is relatively small in the short term [16]. - For coking coal, the downside space is relatively small in the short term [17]. - For ferrosilicon manganese, pay attention to the support at the 5800 level [18]. - For ferrosilicon, it follows the trend of ferrosilicon manganese, and the power cost may decline again [19]. - For the container shipping index (European line), it is recommended to hold existing short positions [20]. - For fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil, the crack spreads are weak [21]. - For asphalt, the unilateral trend follows the oil price with limited fluctuation space [22]. - For liquefied petroleum gas, it runs at a low level overall [23]. - For urea, the short - term market is weak and volatile [24]. - For methanol, pay attention to the impact of macro policies [25]. - For pure benzene, conduct monthly spread band operations [26]. - For styrene, the price continues to run weakly [27]. - For polypropylene, plastic, and propylene, the prices are prone to fall and difficult to rise [28]. - For PVC and caustic soda, PVC is expected to be volatile and weak, and caustic soda is under pressure at high levels [29]. - For PX and PTA, the mid - term processing margin has a repair drive, waiting for downstream demand recovery [30]. - For ethylene glycol, the price continues to decline [31]. - For short - fiber and bottle - chip, consider long positions for short - fiber in the medium term, and the processing margin of bottle - chip is restricted [32]. - For glass, it runs weakly [33]. - For rubber, adopt a wait - and - see strategy [34]. - For soda ash, it is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [35]. - For soybeans and soybean meal, the market is initially treated as a shock [36]. - For soybean oil and palm oil, maintain a long - on - dips strategy [37]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, adopt a wait - and - see strategy in the short term [38]. - For domestic soybeans, the market is initially treated as a shock [39]. - For corn, the Dalian corn futures may continue to oscillate weakly at the bottom [40]. - For live pigs, it is recommended that the industry conduct hedging on rallies [41]. - For eggs, the futures contracts after 2026 are expected to be stronger than those in the second half of 2025 [42]. - For cotton, adopt a wait - and - see or intraday trading strategy [43]. - For sugar, the sugar price is expected to be volatile in the short term, and adopt a wait - and - see strategy [44]. - For apples, pay attention to the price change of early - maturing apples and the new - season yield estimate [45]. - For timber, maintain a long - biased strategy [46]. - For pulp, the price may return to low - level oscillations, and adopt a wait - and - see strategy [47]. - For stock index futures, maintain an increased allocation of the technology - growth sector and pay attention to opportunities in the low - level consumer sector [48]. - For treasury bond futures, it may enter a repair phase, and the probability of a steeper yield curve increases [49]. Summaries by Related Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Last week, the crude oil market rose first and then fell. Brent's October contract still rose 2.84%, and SC09 rose 2.92%. OPEC + decided to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: FU and LU crack spreads continued to decline, and the market fundamentals were weak [21]. - **Asphalt**: In August, the domestic production volume decreased compared with July. The demand recovery was delayed, and the inventory removal was weak [22]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The Middle East CP dropped significantly, the supply was loose, and the price was at a low level [23]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: After the US non - farm payrolls data was lower than expected, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates in September, and precious metals rebounded [2]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: The London copper closed down. Pay attention to the resistance of the MA60 moving average. Hold short positions [3]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly. The inventory increased, and it was under pressure in the short term [4]. - **Zinc**: The 08 contract entered the delivery month. The supply was expected to increase, and it was recommended to short on rebounds [7]. - **Lead**: The price dropped, and it was advisable to hold long positions with support [8]. - **Nickel**: The Shanghai nickel fluctuated, and it was recommended to short [9]. - **Tin**: The London tin rose. Hold short positions at high levels [10]. - **Ferroalloys** - **Manganese Silicon**: The supply and demand were relatively balanced, and pay attention to the support at 5800 [18]. - **Silicon Iron**: It followed the trend of manganese silicon, and the power cost might decline [19]. Chemicals - **Urea**: The agricultural demand entered the off - season, and the short - term market was weak and volatile [24]. - **Methanol**: The port inventory increased seasonally, and the supply was sufficient. Pay attention to macro policies [25]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price was weak, and it was recommended to conduct monthly spread band operations [26]. - **Styrene**: The supply pressure was relatively large, and the price continued to be weak [27]. - **Polypropylene & Plastic & Propylene**: The prices were prone to fall and difficult to rise [28]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC was expected to be volatile and weak, and caustic soda was under pressure at high levels [29]. - **PX & PTA**: The mid - term processing margin had a repair drive, waiting for downstream demand recovery [30]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price continued to decline [31]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Consider long positions for short - fiber in the medium term, and the processing margin of bottle - chip was restricted [32]. Building Materials - **Glass**: It ran weakly, and the inventory increased [33]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It was expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [13]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The US soybeans were under pressure, and the market was initially treated as a shock [36]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Maintain a long - on - dips strategy [37]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy in the short term [38]. - **Domestic Soybeans**: The price was in a shock, and pay attention to the weather [39]. - **Corn**: The Dalian corn futures may continue to oscillate weakly at the bottom [40]. - **Live Pigs**: The futures price may have peaked, and it is recommended to hedge on rallies [41]. - **Eggs**: The futures contracts after 2026 are expected to be stronger than those in the second half of 2025 [42]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton fell. Adopt a wait - and - see or intraday trading strategy [43]. - **Sugar**: The sugar price was expected to be volatile in the short term, and adopt a wait - and - see strategy [44]. - **Apples**: Pay attention to the price change of early - maturing apples and the new - season yield estimate [45]. - **Timber**: The demand improved, the inventory was low, and maintain a long - biased strategy [46]. - **Pulp**: The price may return to low - level oscillations, and adopt a wait - and - see strategy [47]. Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market was volatile. Maintain an increased allocation of the technology - growth sector and pay attention to opportunities in the low - level consumer sector [48]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: It may enter a repair phase, and the probability of a steeper yield curve increases [49]. Others - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The SCFI European route decreased slightly. The主力 EC2510 contract was deeply discounted, and it is recommended to hold short positions [20].

非农大幅低于预期，贵金属震荡偏多 摘 要： 上周前半段在美国7月未降息及美国经济依然具有韧性的预期 下，美元指数大幅反弹，并施压贵金属。但是上周五的非农数据大 幅低于预期和失业率再次反弹，在两者共同作用下，美元指数大幅 走弱，并带动贵金属走强，其中黄金的走强大于白银，数据公布后 市场基本对 9 月降息完全定价，后续市场将围绕美国经济数据和降 息预期的强弱展开。黄金的走势需要关注美元指数的强弱，白银的 走势需要关注降息的强弱和美国经济数据，黄金、白银或走分化行 情，白银整体要强于黄金。 美国 7 月非农就业人数仅仅增加 7.3 万人，创 9 个月最低，远 不及预期的 11 万人。此外，前两个月的数据合计大幅下修 25.8 万。 7 月失业率小幅升至 4.2%。该数据公布后，特朗普再度"逼宫"美 联储主席鲍威尔，称现在必须大幅降低利率。若不降息，美联储理 事会应接手掌管，采取每个人都知道必须采取的行动。并下令解雇 劳工统计局局长。从前期公布的通胀数据来看，美国 6 月个人消费 支出即 PCE 物价指数同比上涨 2.6%，高于市场预期的 2.5%。5 月数 据经修正后为上涨 2.4%。核心 PCE 物价指数同比上涨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term trade agreement dispute has resurfaced, increasing the demand for hedging, and the risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, with the weakening employment leading to a rebound in the expectation of interest rate cuts. It is expected that precious metals will be volatile and strong in the short term, oscillate at a high level in the medium term, and rise in steps in the long term [1]. - The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF have slightly reduced their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has slightly increased [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Core Logic**: Short - term trade agreement disputes increase hedging demand; the risk of US economic stagflation rises, and the weak employment situation leads to a rebound in interest - rate cut expectations. The new round of tariffs by Trump has caused a global stock market crash, and many countries are seeking renegotiation. The weak US employment growth in July and the significant downward revision of non - farm payrolls in the previous two months have increased the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in September. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut probability in September has soared from about 40% to about 80%, and the expected number of interest - rate cuts within the year has increased from 1 to 3. The US dollar index and US bond yields have fallen under pressure. The CRB commodity index's rebound is under pressure, and the strong RMB suppresses domestic prices [1]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - **Data Summary**: International prices such as Comex gold and London gold have increased, and domestic prices like Shanghai gold and gold T + D have also risen. There are changes in positions, inventories, and other aspects. For example, the position of Comex gold has decreased by 0.73% compared with the previous week, and the inventory of Comex gold has decreased by 1.08% [2]. - **Net Position Ranking**: In the net position ranking of Shanghai gold of futures companies' members on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the net long positions of the top 10 companies in total increased by 7,617, and the net short positions decreased by 133 [3]. Silver - **Core Logic**: The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price. There are slight reductions in the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF, and a slight increase in recent visible inventory [5]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [6]. - **Data Summary**: International prices such as Comex silver and London silver have changed, and domestic prices like Shanghai silver and silver T + D have also adjusted. There are also changes in positions, inventories, etc. For example, the position of Comex silver has decreased by 1.93% compared with the previous week, and the visible inventory has increased by 0.46% [6]. - **Net Position Ranking**: In the net position ranking of Shanghai silver of futures companies' members on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the net long positions of the top 10 companies in total decreased by 2,778, and the net short positions increased by 5,610 [7]. Fundamental Key Data - **Monetary Attributes**: The federal funds target rate, discount rate, and reserve balance rate have all decreased by 0.25%. The Fed's total assets have decreased by 0.00%. There are also changes in indicators such as M2, ten - year US Treasury real yield, and US dollar index [8]. - **Inflation in the US**: Indicators such as CPI, core CPI, and PCE price index have changed. For example, the year - on - year CPI has increased by 0.30% [10]. - **US Economic Growth**: GDP has changed both year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter. The unemployment rate has increased by 0.10%, and other labor - market indicators have also adjusted [10]. - **US Real Estate Market**: The NAHB housing market index has increased by 3.13%, while new home sales have decreased by 19.64% [10]. - **US Consumption**: Retail sales, personal consumption expenditures, and other indicators have changed. For example, the year - on - year retail sales have decreased by 1.84% [10]. - **US Industry**: The industrial production index has increased both year - on - year and month - on - month, and the capacity utilization rate has increased by 0.16% [10]. - **US Trade**: Exports and imports have changed both year - on - year and month - on - month, and the trade balance has decreased by 18.69% [10]. - **US Economic Surveys**: The Michigan consumer confidence index has increased by 9.50%, while the small - and - medium - sized enterprise optimism index has decreased by 0.20% [10]. - **Central Bank Gold Reserves**: The gold reserves of China, the US, and the world have their own changes, and the proportion of gold in foreign exchange reserves has also adjusted. For example, the global proportion of gold in foreign exchange reserves has increased by 4.11% [12]. - **Hedging Attributes**: The geopolitical risk index has increased by 51.84%, and the VIX index has decreased by 5.54% [12]. - **Commodity Attributes**: The CRB commodity index has decreased by 2.70%, and the offshore RMB has increased by 0.65% [12]. Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations The probability of the Fed's interest - rate cuts in different periods from September 2025 to December 2026 is presented in the table, showing the changing trends of market expectations for interest - rate cuts [13].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for a rational perspective on the recent non-farm payroll data, highlighting that the employment growth in the U.S. is showing signs of stagnation but should not be extrapolated linearly as a trend of cooling employment [2][3]. Economic Indicators - The non-farm payroll data for May and June was significantly revised downwards, with May adjusted from 125,000 to 19,000 and June from 133,000 to 14,000, leading to a three-month moving average of only 35,000 [2]. - The unemployment rate remains low at 4.2%, and wage growth is stable at 3.9%, indicating a balanced labor market despite a decrease in immigration [2]. - High-frequency indicators suggest a strengthening job market, with initial jobless claims dropping to 218,000, significantly below seasonal levels [2]. Economic Recovery Drivers - The economic recovery is supported by a return to fiscal expansion and a peak decline in long-term interest rates. The cumulative deficit over the past four weeks reached $219.8 billion, contrasting with a surplus of $56.2 billion in the previous four weeks [3]. - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 4.2% from its May peak, indicating a recovery in interest-sensitive sectors [3]. Market Reactions - The market experienced volatility, with a shift from hawkish to dovish sentiment following the disappointing non-farm payroll data, leading to a rapid increase in rate cut expectations [4]. - U.S. stock markets showed a downward trend, primarily due to the Fed's hawkish stance, although strong earnings reports from companies like Meta and Microsoft provided some support [4]. Currency and Commodity Outlook - The dollar is expected to remain low, with the market returning to a logic dominated by interest rate differentials. The anticipated Fed rate cuts could pressure the dollar further [6]. - Gold prices are supported by multiple favorable factors, including potential rate cuts and increased investor buying signals, despite being considered expensive [7]. China Economic Insights - China's manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3, indicating a contraction, while the non-manufacturing PMI remained in expansion territory at 50.1 [9]. - Export growth is under pressure, with the new export orders index at 47.1, reflecting ongoing challenges from high tariffs imposed by the U.S. [10]. - Domestic demand remains mixed, with strong growth in automotive retail but a significant decline in real estate transactions [10]. Fiscal and Monetary Policy - In July, the government issued 1.25 trillion yuan in net financing, with a shift towards accelerating the issuance of special bonds [11]. - The central bank's focus is shifting towards optimizing policy implementation and enhancing the effectiveness of monetary transmission [11]. Policy Developments - The introduction of a child-rearing subsidy program is expected to impact consumer spending positively, while the "anti-involution" policy aims to regulate competition among enterprises [12]. - The announcement of a tax on bond interest income starting in 2025 is intended to balance fiscal pressures and reform tax administration [13]. Investment Strategy - The investment strategy suggests maintaining a balanced allocation in domestic bonds, with a focus on short to medium-term maturities, while also considering the potential for equity investments in sectors like consumer goods and technology [17]. - The outlook for A-shares remains cautiously optimistic, with a recommendation for balanced exposure to growth and value stocks, particularly in dividend-paying sectors [17].

Economic Overview - The US and EU, South Korea, Cambodia, and Thailand reached trade agreements, with the lowest reciprocal tariff rate maintained at 10%[9] - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, showing caution towards rate cuts[10] - Japan's central bank kept its benchmark rate at 0.5%, aligning with market expectations, while raising inflation and GDP forecasts for FY2025[10] Market Performance - Major US stock indices experienced a decline, with the S&P 500 down 2.36% and the Nasdaq down 2.17% over the week[40] - The US 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.22%, while the Chinese 10-year yield decreased to 1.71%[39] - The US dollar index rose by 1% to 98.69, indicating a strengthening of the dollar against other currencies[39] Economic Data Insights - The US added 73,000 non-farm jobs in July, below the expected 104,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2%[24] - The US Q2 GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3%, surpassing the expected 2.5%[25] - The core PCE price index for Q2 increased by 2.5%, down from 3.5% but above the expected 2.3%[25] Commodity and Currency Trends - Gold prices surged above $3,400 per ounce, while Brent crude oil rose by 2.75% to $69.5 per barrel[39] - The MBA purchase index fell by approximately 10 basis points to 155.6, indicating a decline in mortgage applications[23] - The RedBook retail index showed a slight year-on-year increase, reflecting consumer spending resilience[12] Investment Recommendations - Short-term asset allocation should focus on defensive sectors due to market volatility and economic uncertainty[45] - Bonds are recommended for short-term positioning, with a focus on high-yielding, shorter-duration securities[46] - Gold remains a favorable long-term investment, supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions and central bank policies[46]