在关税政策愈发不明朗的背景下，周四，消费品巨头宝洁公司大幅下调全年销售和利润预期，并报告第三季度净销售额出现超预期下滑。 24日，宝洁公布2025全年业绩预估： 作为消费品行业的晴雨表，宝洁公司目前预计2025财年总净销售额将与上一财年大致持平，远低于此前2%至4%的增长目标。 宝洁从海外进口原材料、包装材料和部分成品到美国，而其在美国生产并出口到加拿大的商品也可能受到关税打击。 不过，发言人强调，宝洁在美国销售的产品中约90%是在国内生产的。尽管如此，宝洁此前已表示可能不得不提高价格以抵消关税影响。 宝洁并非唯一一家在当前经济环境中挣扎的消费品巨头。竞争对手Reckitt周三报告称，其在欧洲和北美的销售量有所下降。清洁纸巾制造商 Kimberly-Clark本周早些时候也下调了年度利润预期，并表示今年将因贸易关税而产生约3亿美元的成本。 然而，行业内部也出现了明显分化。雀巢和联合利华的季度销售额均超过市场预期，前者受益于包装食品业务的较高价格，后者则依靠多芬香皂 和凡士林等顶级品牌的强劲表现。 预计核心每股收益增幅+2％至+4％，此前预计+5％至+7％； 预计内生性收入大约+2％，此前预计+3％至+5％； ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Department of Commerce has issued a positive final ruling on anti-dumping and countervailing duty investigations against crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam, imposing significant tariffs that could severely impact the solar industry in these Southeast Asian countries [1][3]. Group 1: Tariff Implications - The anti-dumping tax rates for solar products from the four Southeast Asian countries range from 0% to 271.28%, while countervailing duty rates range from 14.64% to 3403.96%, indicating a vast disparity based on origin and manufacturer [1]. - The imposition of tariffs, particularly the over 3500% rate on Cambodian manufacturers, is seen as a retaliatory measure due to their non-cooperation in trade investigations [1][3]. Group 2: Geopolitical Context - The U.S. aims to pressure these Southeast Asian nations to distance themselves from China, as evidenced by previous warnings that tariff exemptions would only be granted if they severed supply chain ties with China [3]. - Despite U.S. efforts, none of the four countries are willing to compromise their trade relationships with China, reflecting a growing influence of China in the region [3][5]. Group 3: U.S. Domestic Economic Concerns - The tariffs are part of a broader strategy by the Trump administration, which is facing challenges in negotiating trade agreements and is under pressure to lower interest rates through the Federal Reserve [5]. - The lack of successful negotiations with other countries within the remaining 70 days of the tariff suspension period puts the Trump administration in a precarious position regarding its trade policy [5]. Group 4: Regional Responses - Thailand's Prime Minister announced a postponement of planned tariff negotiations with the U.S., signaling a lack of willingness to engage with U.S. demands [7]. - Malaysia has strengthened its bilateral relations with China, including signing a visa exemption agreement, further solidifying its partnership and reducing U.S. leverage [7].

Core Viewpoint - Ken Griffin criticizes Trump's tariff policies, stating they are damaging the reputation of the United States and its assets, including U.S. Treasury bonds and the strength of the dollar [1][5]. Group 1: Economic Impact - Griffin warns that the trade war has become meaningless, necessitating a reevaluation of supply chains [2]. - He highlights that tariffs cannot bring manufacturing back to the U.S., noting that the U.S. has become 20% poorer in recent weeks due to Trump's inconsistent tariff stance [5][7]. - Griffin emphasizes that when the economic "cake" shrinks rapidly, there are no significant opportunities, and the focus shifts to merely surviving [8]. Group 2: Brand and Reputation - Griffin states that the damage done to the U.S. brand may take a lifetime to repair [3]. - He compares the current situation to the pressure on Harvard University, suggesting that attacking such a prestigious institution is akin to attacking one of America's most outstanding brands [4]. - He expresses concern that the actions of U.S. officials may weaken the country's standing, especially amid a debt crisis in the Western world [9]. Group 3: Manufacturing and Investment - Griffin strongly doubts the effectiveness of Trump's goal to revive U.S. manufacturing through tariffs, asserting that the volatility of policies undermines the intended objectives [6].

Ken Griffin猛烈抨击特朗普的关税政策，认为其正在损害美国声誉。 据媒体报道，周三，对冲基金巨头Citadel创始人兼首席执行官肯·格里芬(Ken Griffin)在世界经济峰会上接受媒体采访时表示， 特朗普行动过快，疏远了盟友， 并玷污了美国资产曾经"无可比拟"的卓越声誉，包括美国国债、美元强势和国家信用度。 Griffin警告称： 不幸的是，贸易战已经变得毫无意义，这意味着我们要花时间思考供应链。 我们将品牌置于风险之中。要修复已经造成的损害，可能需要一辈子的时间。 他将当前情况与哈佛大学的遭遇相提并论，认为政府对这所美国顶尖学府的施压，无异于"攻击美国最卓越的品牌之一"。 关税无法推动制造业回流，美国四周内已变穷20% 近几周来，由于特朗普在关税问题上反复无常的态度，以及一度暗示可能解雇美联储主席（后又收回言论），投资者纷纷抛售美国股票和国债，市场剧烈波 动，深层的不安情绪持续存在。 Griffin对特朗普旨在通过关税复兴美国制造业的核心目标表示强烈怀疑。他认为： 我告诉你什么不会发生：人们不会筹集资金在美国建厂，因为政策的波动性实际上破坏了你试图实现的目标。 Griffin引用欧元作为参照， ...

智通财经APP获悉，当前财报季中，关税上涨与美元疲软正为企业盈利预期蒙上阴影，分析师预计未来 几个季度负面影响还将持续扩大。 随着美元兑欧元汇率跌至三年低点、兑瑞士法郎创十年新低，欧洲企业已纷纷拉响警报。这令本已因特 朗普贸易政策导致经济放缓风险而承压的股市雪上加霜。 鉴于斯托克600指数成分股企业60%的营收来自海外，美元大幅贬值将显著降低其以欧洲本土货币计值 的美国市场收益。受此影响，欧洲市场中对美业务敞口较大的股票随美元同步下挫，众多投资者正转向 以内需为导向的企业寻求避险。 欧洲市值最高的企业SAP SE(SAP.US)率先预警汇率风险。这家软件巨头首席财务官向投资者表示，美 元走弱将在中期形成盈利阻力，随着外汇对冲合约陆续到期，负面影响将在明年集中显现。 与此同时，荷兰啤酒巨头喜力集团(HEINY.US)预计，欧元走强将导致今年营收减少17.2亿欧元(20亿美 元)。法国医疗诊断公司BioMerieux和英国零售商WH Smith Plc在财报中也强调了汇率风险。 Lombard Odier Investment Managers宏观研究主管Florian Ielpo表示："欧洲企业必须清醒认识到， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The copper price is expected to face a downward risk in the second quarter due to the impact of US tariffs and the entry into the off - season of spot trading, despite the tight supply of copper concentrates in the medium - term, short - term smelting cost support, and the transfer of global inventory to the US [1][2] - For protein meal, the second - quarter Brazilian new soybean exports are large, putting downward pressure on the near - month contracts of soybean meal, and the spread between near - and far - month contracts is affected by Trump's attitude. Under the background of trade - war easing, the spread of soybean - rapeseed meal 2610 should be narrowed [4][5] - The asphalt futures price is expected to oscillate strongly in the near term due to improved rigid demand and stronger crude - oil cost. In the long term, it is expected to maintain a strong trend with limited supply growth and increasing demand from road projects [6][8][9] 3. Summary by Variety Copper - **Price Range** - Intraday: 75,200 - 77,300 [1] - Medium - term: 66,000 - 90,000 [1] - **Reference Strategy**: Adopt an operation idea of weakening oscillation [1] - **Core Logic** - Macro: Trump's tariff war and related remarks have caused dissatisfaction, and then he proposed to lower tariffs and abandon the idea of firing Powell [1] - Supply: Global copper concentrate supply is expected to be tight, but some mining companies plan to increase production. Some smelters reduce production due to negative processing fees, while domestic copper enterprises increase imports [1] - Demand: The current peak season has stable demand growth, but US tariffs may suppress demand. The off - season starts at the end of the second quarter [1] - Inventory: On April 23, LME copper inventory decreased by 7,450 tons (3.50%) to 205,250 tons, and SHFE copper inventory decreased by 1,728 tons to 44,965 tons [2] Protein Meal - **Price Range** - Intraday: Soybean meal主力[2950,3050] [3] - Medium - term: The spread between near - and far - month contracts of soybean meal narrows [3] - **Reference Strategy**: Short soybean meal 2601 and long rapeseed meal 2601 [3] - **Core Logic** - Trump's trade - war easing remarks had little impact on soybean varieties, while vegetable oils rose. Indonesia and Japan may increase US purchases [4] - Brazilian soybean exports are expected to be large in April. US soybean planting progress is 8% as of April 20. Chinese soybean imports in March were low [4] - Canadian rapeseed planting area is expected to decrease, and the ending inventory is raised [5] Petroleum Asphalt - **Price Outlook** - Intraday: Oscillate strongly [7] - Medium - term: Run strongly [7] - **Reference Strategy**: Long asphalt and short high - sulfur fuel oil spread strategy [7] - **Core Logic** - Supply: Local refineries are in loss, but the operating rate and production are increasing. Shandong refinery profit is - 645.37 yuan/ton, and the operating rate is 30.7% [6] - Demand: Most areas have good construction conditions. Southern demand is stable, and northern demand is improving. Waterproofing membrane enterprises' operating rate is 32.0% [6] - Inventory: Refinery inventory decreased by 1.9 tons to 57.5 tons, and social inventory increased by 2.6 tons to 56.3 tons [6][9] - Cost: Pay attention to Iran - US nuclear negotiations and sanctions. Trump's low - oil - price policy affects the market, and the raw - material cost has support [9]

当地时间4月22日，美国电动汽车品牌特斯拉发布的报告显示，该公司今年第一季度净利润为4.09亿美 元，与去年同期相比下降71%。此外，调整后特斯拉每股收益为0.27美元，低于分析师预期。 特斯拉工厂 图源：央视新闻 近期，美国政府效率部牵头人埃隆·马斯克面临着双线"职场问题"的困扰。当地时间4月22日，特斯拉发 布的报告显示，该公司今年第一季度净利润为4.09亿美元，与去年同期相比下降71%；据美国媒体消 息，马斯克和财政部长贝森特上周曾在白宫激烈争吵，甚至爆粗口，而当时美国总统特朗普和到访白宫 的意大利总理梅洛尼都能听到。 马斯克 资料图 图源：新华社 特斯拉一季度净利润大降，舆论认为受马斯克拖累 截至22日下午，特斯拉股价收于每股238美元，较年初下跌近37%。 《纽约时报》引述投资人士的话说，"这是我见过的特斯拉有史以来最糟糕表现。"舆论普遍认为，特斯 拉业绩大跌，是受公司创始人马斯克涉入政治拖累。特斯拉公司也表示，贸易战和"不断变化的政治情 绪"可能对该公司造成压力。 《华尔街日报》称，马斯克在当日的电话会议上深深叹了口气，然后谈及特朗普政府的贸易战。他表 示，他主张降低关税，并将继续这样做，"我只想 ...

据央视网消息，近期，美国总统特朗普表示，对中美达成协议有信心。特朗普说："我认为我们会与中国达成协议，我们会和所有人达成协议的。如果我们 达不成协议，那我们就定个目标，然后就这么定了，这样也挺好。大概在接下来的三到四周内，事情应该能全部搞定。" 贸易（资料图） 据彭博社近期消息，在美国总统特朗普执意挑起贸易战之际，中国进口商削减了约90%的美国石油采购量，目前正进口创纪录数量的加拿大原油。 追踪水 运石油和天然气运输的Vortexa Ltd数据显示，3月份，中国从加拿大温哥华附近输油管道终点港进口的原油数量，飙升至前所未有的730万桶，本月有望超过 这一数字。与此同时，中国从美国进口的原油数量已从去年6月份的峰值2900万桶骤降至每月300万桶。 彭博社指出，中国——全球最大原油进口国，从美 国转向加拿大寻求更多石油，是特朗普政府试图重塑全球贸易关系却造成经济和战略混乱的又一例证。 自从中美贸易战升级，中国炼油厂对美国原油的采购量，直接砍掉了90%。美国农民早就尝过这种滋味。 上半年中国刚订完大豆，转头就找巴西买了40船 货，美国大豆商仓库里堆着3700万吨库存，急得直跺脚。美国对华牛肉出口暴跌95%，连续约 ...

美国东部时间4月23日，中国人民银行行长潘功胜在美国华盛顿特区出席二十国集团财长和央行行长会 议时表示，当前全球经济充满不确定性，经济碎片化和贸易紧张局势加剧，扰乱全球产业链供应链，引 发金融市场动荡，削弱全球经济增长动能，各方应加强合作，努力避免全球经济滑向"高摩擦、低信 任"的轨道。贸易战、关税战没有赢家，单边主义、保护主义没有出路，不符合任何一方利益。中国将 坚持对外开放，坚定支持自由贸易规则和多边贸易体制，推进普惠包容的经济全球化，维护全球经济和 金融稳定。 ...

Core Points - The U.S. government announced a 46% reciprocal tariff on Vietnam, which has raised concerns among Chinese businesses operating in Vietnam, although the implementation has been postponed for 90 days [1][4][12] - Vietnamese companies are actively seeking to diversify their supply chains and explore new trade partnerships, particularly with Europe and other developing countries, in response to the trade tensions [6][40] - The potential impact of the tariffs could significantly harm Vietnam's export-driven economy, as exports to the U.S. account for approximately 30% of Vietnam's total exports and 25% of its GDP [8][11][12] Group 1: Business Operations and Strategies - Chinese companies in Vietnam, such as those in the packaging industry, are currently not making drastic changes to their production plans despite the tariff announcement [4][16] - Companies are preparing for potential impacts by expediting shipments and negotiating with clients to mitigate losses [12][15][30] - The Vietnamese government is engaging in negotiations with the U.S. to reduce the proposed tariffs and has expressed willingness to lower tariffs on U.S. goods to zero [17][19][20] Group 2: Economic Impact and Trade Relations - The tariffs could lead to a 3.5% reduction in Vietnam's economic output by 2026 under optimistic scenarios, effectively halving the country's growth rate [12][21] - Vietnam's export economy, particularly in sectors like ceramics and agricultural products, is heavily reliant on the U.S. market, with some local industries facing increased tariffs on their exports [13][14][15] - The Vietnamese government is taking steps to strengthen its trade relationships with both the U.S. and China, aiming to maintain a balance in its foreign relations [40][41] Group 3: Investment Trends - Chinese investment in Vietnam has surged, with registered investments reaching $4.47 billion in 2023, a 77.6% increase from the previous year [22] - The focus of Chinese investments is shifting from traditional manufacturing to high-tech and renewable energy sectors, indicating a diversification of investment strategies [22][23] - The presence of Chinese companies in Vietnam is expected to continue growing, as they seek to mitigate risks associated with U.S.-China trade tensions [29][44]