半导体设备ETF（159516）今日开盘下杀后一路上扬，午后再度加速，收涨4.56%。消息面上，传存储 大客户订单即将落地。本轮半导体设备的叙事不同于以往的周期复苏或国产替代，而是实打实的受益于 全球AI驱动的高景气，有兴趣的投资者可持续关注半导体设备ETF（159516）。 上海午后出台"沪七条"楼市新政，主要包括：1）非沪籍家庭购买外环内住房所需社保年限由3年降至1 年；2）非沪籍家庭外环内可增购1套；3）居住证满5年可购买1套；4）首套公积金贷款额度从160万升 至240万；5）公积金"认房不认贷"。市场观点认为，上海楼市新政力度基本符合预期，一定程度上可以 释放刚需购房需求、降低购房资金门槛。预计楼市热度回升有望为建材、地产等板块带来催化，且或有 部分资金博弈两会的政策预期。建材板块在反内卷浪潮下，供需格局有望持续优化；目前拔估值进行 时，或有望重演2025年化工行情，投资者或可关注当前市场上最大的建材ETF（159745）。 今日A股高开高走，上证指数收涨0.72%报4147.23点，深证成指涨1.29%，创业板指涨1.41%，北证50涨 0.77%，科创50涨0.54%，中证A500涨0.96%。 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2026-02-25 节后股债同涨 股指期货：节后⾼开，哑铃结构突出。 股指期权：节后⼤幅降波。 国债期货：假期要闻影响有限，债市收涨。 股指期货方面，节后高开，哑铃结构突出。节后首日，沪指高开，顺 势收涨，哑铃结构突出。红利端，油气、煤炭、航运等涨幅居前，集中计 价美伊博弈助推油气价格上行；小微盘端，主题概念轮动，主线暂不明 晰，小盘风格强于大盘风格。核心主题中，影视、旅游、白酒、免税板块 跌幅居前，节日消费止盈兑现；AI应用、算力弱势，受隔夜美股科技股普 跌的影响，明线是2028年AI危机猜想，激发市场恐慌情绪，但暗线是科技 多头拥挤，Claude削弱传统软件护城河，止盈动力加强。主线散乱状态 下，随着节后A股量能有所恢复，流动性充裕、商品联动风险消退，两会 以前政策看涨期权仍有效，仍以IM多单配置，等待会期。 股指期权方面，节后大幅降波。节后首日市场乐观情绪整体维持，开 盘时大盘红利高开，随后中小盘接棒上涨，收盘时多数标的上涨，期权市 场成交量较节前略有降低，整体交易意愿不高。节前报告中我们曾提到， 首日可以"高位续持买权 ...

Market Performance - Historically, A-shares tend to perform well in the two weeks leading up to the National People's Congress (NPC), with a probability of over 50% for indices like the CSI 1000 and CSI 500 to rise, averaging over 3% returns in the two weeks prior [9][18] - After the NPC, the probability of market increases rises significantly, with indices like the CSI 1000 and CSI 500 showing a 64% probability of rising in the weeks following the congress [9][18] Style Performance - There is a calendar effect observed in A-shares around the NPC, where small-cap stocks generally outperform both before and after the congress, driven by expectations of stable growth policies and active financing [12][18] - The small-cap growth and value styles are expected to dominate during the NPC period, while large-cap styles may gain traction in the month following the congress [12][18] Industry Performance - Industries such as basic chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and construction materials show strong performance before and after the NPC, with over 50% probability of rising in the weeks leading up to the congress [14][18] - Post-NPC, industries like real estate, construction materials, and consumer goods are expected to see higher probabilities of increases as stable growth policies are implemented [16][18] Liquidity and Funding - The liquidity indicators show a net outflow of financing funds amounting to 830.2 billion yuan, with a significant drop in ETF inflows [30][36] - The issuance of public funds increased by 340.3 million units, indicating a rise in demand for equity investments despite the overall net outflow [30][36] Market Sentiment - Market sentiment has shown a decrease in trading activity, with the proportion of financing transactions in A-share trading falling to 8.6% [44] - The VIX index has decreased, indicating improved risk appetite in the market, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices also showing positive performance [46][48]

焦煤：节后首日，焦煤主力合约维持弱势格局，日内增仓下行，可见短期 市场氛围依然偏空。从供需来看，春节期间停产休假煤矿将逐渐复产，蒙 煤进口量维持高位，同时地产、基建终端需求持续低迷，当下焦煤基本面 预期仍难言乐观，拖累煤价低位运行。后续，全国两会即将召开，或给市 场带来一定的宏观预期支撑，在多空博弈的格局下，焦煤期货或维持低位 震荡运行；若近期无实质性政策利好，焦煤价格仍将面临一定压力。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 黑色金属 | 日报 2026 年 2 月 24 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 多空焦灼，煤焦低 ...

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2026 年 2 月 24 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 强势 | 震荡 | 基本面支撑有限，焦煤维持低位 | | | | | | | | 震荡 | | 焦炭 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 供需暂稳，焦炭低位运行 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：强势 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：春节期间煤矿停产休 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For coke, the spot market shows that the latest quoted price of the quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port's flat - closing price index is 1,520 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat; the ex - warehouse price of the quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Qingdao Port is 1,470 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.68%. Recently, there is no significant change in the coke fundamentals, with both supply and demand slightly increasing at a low level. The futures lack unilateral momentum, and it is expected that the main coke contract will maintain a low - level oscillating pattern before the Spring Festival. The subsequent uncertainties mainly come from "US - Iran geopolitical risks", "Two Sessions policy expectations", and "anti - involution policy expectations" [6][32] - For coking coal, the latest quoted price of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port is 1,230.0 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 2.50%. As the Spring Festival approaches, more coal mines are on holiday, resulting in a short - term contraction of coking coal supply. However, downstream enterprises have replenished their coal stocks to a sufficient level, and coal mine production will quickly resume after the festival. Overall, the fundamentals of coking coal provide limited support, and the medium - and long - term expectation of loose supply and demand remains an important factor guiding coal price trends. Combining with the recent low - level stabilization of thermal coal prices, in the absence of medium - and long - term drivers, it is expected that coking coal prices will maintain a low - level oscillating pattern before the Spring Festival. The bullish risks mainly include three aspects: the uncertainty of the US - Iran geopolitical conflict during the Spring Festival; the approaching of the important policy node of the National Two Sessions after the Spring Festival; and the possible introduction of new "anti - involution" policies in the coal industry due to the continuous low - level operation of coal prices [7][32] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - On February 13, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that in January 2026, the month - on - month decline in the sales prices of commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities generally narrowed, while the year - on - year prices decreased. In January, the month - on - month sales prices of newly built commercial residential buildings in first - tier cities decreased by 0.3%, the same as the previous month. Among them, the price in Shanghai remained flat, while those in Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen decreased by 0.3%, 0.6%, and 0.4% respectively [9] - On February 13, Mongolia's ETT Company held an online auction for coking coal. The starting price of 1/3 coking raw coal (A9, V28 - 37, S1.0, G75, Mt8) was 93.7 US dollars/ton, and all 64,000 tons of the listed quantity were sold at a transaction price of 96.7 US dollars/ton (all prices are tax - free). The supply location is the customs supervision area at Ganqimaodu Port, and the supply time is within 90 days after payment, with the final supply date being May 14, 2026 [10] 3.2 Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Week - on - Week Change | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Year - on - Year Comparison | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rizhao Port Quasi - First - Grade Coke (Flat - Closing) | 1,520 | 0.00% | 3.40% | - 10.06% | - 1.30% | | Qingdao Port Quasi - First - Grade Coke (Ex - Warehouse) | 1,470 | - 0.68% | 0.00% | - 9.26% | - 2.65% | | Mongolian Coal at Ganqimaodu Port | 1,230 | 2.50% | - 0.81% | 4.24% | 6.03% | | Australian - Produced Coal at Jingtang Port | 1,620 | - 2.41% | 0.62% | 8.72% | 11.72% | | Shanxi - Produced Coal at Jingtang Port | 1,700 | - 4.49% | - 4.49% | 11.11% | 14.09% | [11] 3.3 Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Price Change | High Price | Low Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | 1 | 1,682.0 | 105.0 | 1,682.0 | 1,651.5 | 14,281 | 4,287 | 35,250 | - 2,273 | | Coking Coal | 1 | 1,121.0 | - 31.0 | 1,128.5 | 1,110.0 | 461,599 | - 67,231 | 412,479 | - 54,413 | [14] 3.4 Relevant Charts - **Coke Inventory**: Charts show the inventory of 230 independent coking plants, port coke total inventory, 247 steel - mill coking plants, and total coke inventory over the years [14][15][16] - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Charts display the inventory of coking coal at mine mouths, all - sample independent coking plants, ports, and 247 sample steel mills over the years [19][21][22] - **Other Charts**: Include domestic steel - mill production situation, Shanghai terminal wire and screw procurement volume, coal - washing plant production situation, and coking plant operation situation [27][28][30]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 CFC金属研究作者 | 楚新莉 中信建投期货研究发展部 研究助理 | 杨陈渝虎 中信建投期货研究发展部 期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可〔2011〕1461号 本报告完成时间 | 2026年2月12日 摘要 近期铁矿石偏弱运行。一方面，受限于四成左右的钢厂盈利率，钢厂复产意愿较低，节前铁水恢复缓慢；另一方面，临近春节，现货成交清淡，钢厂补库收 尾，前期市场交易的补库逻辑逐渐失效。 历年春节前后行情波动较大。产业方面，节后有需求成色的考验，且2-3月处于海外极端天气的高频期，供给也易出现较大变数。宏观方面，三月初有两会 政策预期的博弈，也易出现消息面炒作，例如2025年节后"粗钢压减"的预期带动了矿价的下跌。 今年预计行情波动放小，走势前高后低。产业方面，今年情况略弱于2025年，铁水产量略高于去年节前，钢厂盈利率在四成附近，低于去年的五成左右，港 口库存高企，45港来到历史新高的1.7亿吨，压力显著，但目前又明显好于2024年，故节后深跌的可能不大。预期方面，市场对于三月两会和节后需求复苏 的预期偏谨慎，故行情波动或较往年有所放小。走势节奏来看， ...

Report Overview - The report is a coal and coking morning report from Baocheng Futures on February 12, 2026, covering short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on coking coal and coke, along with their price driving logic [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Report's Core View - Coking coal and coke are expected to maintain a low - level oscillatory pattern before the Spring Festival, with coking coal influenced by Middle - East geopolitics and domestic policies, and coke having stable supply - demand and limited price - moving factors [1][5][6] According to Related Catalogs 1. Variety View Reference - For coking coal (2605), short - term view is oscillatory, medium - term view is oscillatory, intraday view is strong, and the overall view is oscillatory, with attention on Middle - East geopolitics and domestic policy impacts [1] - For coke (2605), short - term view is oscillatory, medium - term view is oscillatory, intraday view is oscillatory and slightly strong, and the overall view is oscillatory, due to stable supply - demand and range - bound price [1] 2. Main Variety Price Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector Coking Coal (JM) - Intraday view is strong, medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory [5] - In the spot market, the latest quotation of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port is 1230.0 yuan/ton, a 2.50% week - on - week increase. Before the Spring Festival, coal mine production decreases, but downstream inventory is sufficient, and production will quickly resume after the festival. The long - term supply - demand is expected to be loose, so the price is expected to oscillate at a low level before the Spring Festival [5] - There are three major upside risks: potential escalation of US - Iran geopolitical conflicts during the Spring Festival, economic policy expectations around the Two Sessions after the Spring Festival, and possible "anti - involution" policies in the coal industry due to low coal prices [5] Coke (J) - Intraday view is oscillatory and slightly strong, medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory [6] - In the spot market, the latest quotation of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port is 1520 yuan/ton, with a flat week - on - week change, and the ex - warehouse price at Qingdao Port is 1470 yuan/ton, a 0.68% week - on - week decrease. The supply - demand at both ends has a small increase at a low level, and the futures lack unilateral momentum. The main contract is expected to oscillate at a low level before the Spring Festival [6] - Uncertainties come from "US - Iran geopolitical risks", "Two Sessions policy expectations", and "anti - involution policy expectations" [6]

Core Viewpoint - The consumer sector is showing resilience and strength in the market despite ongoing style rotations, driven by expectations of the Spring Festival and policy anticipations from the Two Sessions [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The consumption sector has rebounded, benefiting from dual drivers: expectations for the Spring Festival peak season and the recovery of leading liquor prices [1] - The recent outflow of funds from technology and broad-based funds led to the consumption sector nearing historical lows at the end of January, but unfavorable factors have since diminished [1] Group 2: Long-term Outlook - The consumption sector is currently positioned in a "high odds" zone due to low valuations, with a strategic shift in fiscal policy from "investment-driven" to "livelihood consumption" confirmed [1] - There is potential for a phase of activity in the consumption sector, primarily characterized by rebounds and window-based speculation, reflecting a "strong expectation" recovery under "weak reality" [1] Group 3: Sector Differentiation - Specific sub-sectors such as service consumption, high-end discretionary goods, and aviation may experience supply-side clearing benefits, leading to potential differentiation in performance [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - A-share market still has many positive factors in the current situation. China's trade surplus in 2025 hit a record high, and net exports are expected to support the GDP of that year. Although the Fed's rate - cut expectations have decreased and the US dollar index has strengthened, the RMB is still in an appreciation channel. The strong exchange rate supports the expectation of loose monetary policy in Q1, and the stock market is gradually converging with the foreign exchange market. Also, due to the relatively late Spring Festival this year, the market has started to trade the policy expectations of the Two Sessions in early March in advance, and the A - share spring market is significantly advanced [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Contract Prices**: - IF main contract (2603) closed at 4740.0, down 14.0; IF secondary main contract (2601) closed at 4737.6, down 30.2. - IH main contract (2603) closed at 3114.0, down 19.6; IH secondary main contract (2601) closed at 3109.0, down 24.8. - IC main contract (2603) closed at 8197.8, up 76.6; IC secondary main contract (2601) closed at 8221.0, up 52.6. - IM main contract (2603) closed at 8156.0, up 5.2; IM secondary main contract (2601) closed at 8242.0, up 6.2 [2] - **Futures Price Spreads**: - IF - IH current - month contract spread was 1628.6, down 1.0; IC - IF current - month contract spread was 3483.4, up 76.8. - IM - IC current - month contract spread was 21.0, down 40.0; IC - IH current - month contract spread was 5112.0, up 75.8. - IM - IF current - month contract spread was 3504.4, up 36.8; IM - IH current - month contract spread was 5133.0, up 35.8 [2] - **Futures Seasonal Spreads**: - IF current - season minus current - month was 2.4, up 10.0; IF next - season minus current - month was - 40.8, up 10.4. - IH current - season minus current - month was 5.0, up 4.0; IH next - season minus current - month was 3, up 11.0. - IC current - season minus current - month was - 23.2, up 18.4; IC next - season minus current - month was - 182.2, up 5.4. - IM current - season minus current - month was - 86.0, down 12.6; IM next - season minus current - month was - 277, down 3.6 [2] - **Futures Net Positions of Top 20**: - IF top 20 net positions were - 41,343.00, up 533.0. - IH top 20 net positions were - 16,409.00, up 1004.0. - IC top 20 net positions were - 32,805.00, up 3053.0. - IM top 20 net positions were - 50,614.00, up 526.0 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - **Spot Indexes**: - CSI 300 closed at 4741.93, down 19.1; IF main contract basis was - 1.9, up 0.5. - SSE 50 closed at 3,112.1, down 20.9; IH main contract basis was 1.9, down 2.7. - CSI 500 closed at 8,227.7, up 84.4; IC main contract basis was - 29.9, down 17.8. - CSI 1000 closed at 8,257.2, up 54.0; IM main contract basis was - 101.2, down 58.4 [2] 3.3 Market Sentiment - A - share trading volume (daily, in billion yuan) was 39,868.62, up 2880.50. Margin trading balance (previous trading day, in billion yuan) was 26,829.92, up 89.30. - North - bound trading volume (previous trading day, in billion yuan) was 4209.36, up 219.55. Reverse repurchase (maturity, operation volume, in billion yuan) was - 286.0, up 2408.0. - Main funds (yesterday, today, in billion yuan) were - 1805.56 and - 889.40 respectively. - Proportion of rising stocks (daily, %) was 50.18, up 20.54. Shibor (daily, %) was 1.390, down 0.001. - IO at - the - money call option closing price (2601) was 17.60, down 19.00; IO at - the - money call option implied volatility (%) was 13.78, up 0.08. - IO at - the - money put option closing price (2601) was 31.00, up 8.60; IO at - the - money put option implied volatility (%) was 13.78, up 0.08. - CSI 300 index 20 - day volatility (%) was 13.26, down 0.16. Volume PCR (%) was 55.90, up 19.28. - Position PCR (%) was 75.15, down 2.53 [2] 3.4 Wind Market Strength and Weakness Analysis - All A - shares score was 5.70, up 2.30; technical aspect score was 5.00, up 2.10. - Capital aspect score was 6.40, up 2.50 [2] 3.5 Industry News - China's exports in December 2025 (in RMB) increased by 5.2% year - on - year (previous value: 5.7%); imports increased by 4.4% (previous value: 1.7%); trade surplus was 8087.7 billion yuan (previous value: 7925.8 billion yuan). Exports (in US dollars) increased by 6.6% year - on - year (previous value: 5.9%); imports increased by 5.7% (previous value: 1.9%); trade surplus was 1141.4 billion US dollars (previous value: 1116.8 billion US dollars) [2] - US CPI in December 2025 increased by 2.7% year - on - year and 0.3% month - on - month; core CPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, with the year - on - year growth rates remaining the same as the previous values [2] - As of January 13, over 140 A - share companies had released their 2025 performance forecasts or bulletins, with 63 companies expecting performance growth and 5 companies expecting a turnaround from losses. Based on the mid - values of bulletins or forecasts, 72 companies had a net profit of over 1 billion yuan, and 22 had a net profit of over 10 billion yuan [2] 3.6 Market Performance - Most A - share major indexes closed higher. The three major indexes fluctuated upwards in the morning and dived in the afternoon. Small - and medium - cap stocks outperformed large - cap blue - chip stocks, with CSI 500 performing the strongest. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.31%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.56%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.82%. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets refreshed the historical record again. Industry sectors showed mixed performance, with the computer sector strengthening significantly and the banking and real estate sectors leading the decline [2]