股票频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：栎树 据中国基金报，瑞银证券董事长胡知鸷表示，2025年中国资本市场表现超预期，不过，目前中国资产并 未"过热"。2026年港股IPO热潮或持续。瑞银证券全球投资银行部联席主管谌戈表示，国际投资者对中 国AI科技企业的兴趣浓厚。胡知鸷认为，中国AI科技公司发展潜力巨大，出现万亿美元级公司只是时 间问题。 ...

岁末年初，多家外资机构密集发布了2026年市场展望。其中，高盛、摩根大通、摩根士丹利、瑞银 等知名机构表达了对中国资产的乐观预期。 中国资产具备持续反弹基础成为市场共识。高盛在最新报告中明确提到，中国股票市场到2027年末 有望实现38%的涨幅。摩根大通将中国市场的评级上调至"超配"，认为中国市场估值仍处于合理区间， 且国际投资者仓位较轻。摩根士丹利小幅上调了中国股票指数目标，预测2026年12月沪深300指数目标 点位为4840点。瑞银将MSCI中国指数2026年年末目标设定为100点，较当前水平存在约14%的上涨空 间，同时将恒生指数目标设定为30000点。 外资机构普遍认为，中国股市的上涨动力正在发生结构性变化——2025年主要依赖估值修复，而 2026年将转向企业盈利的实质改善。 高盛预计，中国企业盈利在2026年及2027年可能分别增长14%和12%，上市公司海外营收增长预计 将推动MSCI中国指数成分股业绩到2030年每年增加约1.5%。 瑞银证券中国股票策略分析师孟磊认为，2026年全部A股盈利增速有望从2025年的6%进一步升至 8%。名义国内生产总值增速提升、企业营收增长、支持政策持续出台， ...

瑞银中国总裁及瑞银证券董事长胡知鸷预计，今年香港市场IPO规模有望超过3000亿港元，上市公司数 量料有150至200家。 她认为，中国资产并未进入过热区间，而是飞跃的开始。 胡知鸷预料，2026年MSCI中国指数的盈利增长可能达到14%，甚至更高，主要受互联网平台、高端制 造业和具有全球扩张能力企业的驱动。 ...

早盘提示 Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、多家外资机构纷纷发布报告，对 2026 年中国资产表现持积极观点。在企业盈利 | | | | | 持续改善、科技创新突破不断涌现，以及估值吸引力日益凸显的推动下，中国资产 | | | | | 具备了持续上升的坚实基础。 | | | | | 2、马斯克表示，其脑机接口公司 Neuralink 将于 2026 年开始对脑机接口设备进行 | | | | | "大规模生产"。并同步推进流程高度精简、几乎完全自动化的手术方案，最关键 | | | | | 的突破在于，设备中的电极丝将直接穿过硬脑膜，而无需将其切除。 | | | | | 3、AI 算力需求激增与存储芯片价格反弹，推动三星电子与 SK 海力士股价飙升，带 | | | | | 动日韩股市齐创新 ...

但报道也提示，尽管外资投行看好，普通投资者仍需关注基本面，如内需和出口表现，以及政府政策支持的领域。银 河证券前首席经济师左小蕾认为，从当前基本面来看，中国官方在消费领域继续提供补贴，在新质生产力相关领域加 大基础设施和资金投入，使中国实现5%左右的经济增长目标具备一定基础，"在具备这样的基本面支撑后，投资者才 可以更多考虑在那些未来发展空间较大的领域增持，未来股市的上涨也是可预期的。" 【环球网财经综合报道】近日，多家外资机构纷纷发布报告，对2026年中国资产表现持积极观点。在企业盈利持续改 善、科技创新突破不断涌现，以及估值吸引力日益凸显的推动下，中国资产具备持续反弹的坚实基础。 《联合早报》此前发文称，中国A股2020年涨幅强劲，全球资金回流中国，金融市场成交量上升；多家外资投行上调 2026年的市场预期。企业获利改善被预期支撑股市，预计盈利将增长14%和12%。摩根大通和摩根士丹利等设沪深300 指数目标点位在4800至5200点。 《南华早报》近日也发文提到，随着投资者对中国资产和长期增长前景的信心恢复，以及他们将目光投向地缘政治和 经济挑战之外，中国的并购市场将迎来又一年的增长。 上海中伦律师事务 ...

Market News - CPI and PPI data will be released on January 9, 2026, with an expected CPI year-on-year growth of 0.7% and a PPI year-on-year decline of 1.9% [3] - The 2026 childcare subsidy application will open on January 5, 2026, with over 24 million people having received subsidies in 2025, achieving an 80% issuance rate [4] - The first adjustment of refined oil prices in 2026 will occur on January 6, with gasoline and diesel prices decreasing by 170 yuan and 165 yuan per ton, respectively [5] - The U.S. non-farm payroll data will be released on January 6, with unemployment rate predictions ranging from 4.5% to 4.7% [6] Sector Events - The 2026 International Consumer Electronics Show (CES) will commence on January 6, featuring major tech companies and new exhibitors from China, including Lenovo and Hisense [8] - Honor Power2 will be officially launched on January 5, featuring a 10000mAh battery and MediaTek Dimensity 8500Elite chip, achieving a benchmark score of over 2.4 million [9] Company News - Zhongwei Company plans to acquire 64.69% of Hangzhou Zhongwei's equity through a combination of stock issuance and cash payment, with the company specializing in CMP equipment [11] - Meike Home intends to acquire 100% of Wanda's equity to expand into the high-speed interconnect field, with stock resuming trading on January 5, 2026 [12] - ST Asia Pacific has completed its restructuring, with a reference price of 7.05 yuan per share for its stock resumption on January 5, 2026 [13] - Jiaheng Homecare's controlling shareholder will change to Hangzhou Pinpianyi, with a share transfer price of 33.21 yuan per share [15] Lock-up Expiration - A total of 36 stocks will have their lock-up periods expire from January 5 to January 9, 2026, with a total market value exceeding 160 billion yuan [17] - Notable expirations include Fenghuo Electronics with 11,424.9 million shares valued at 139.612 million yuan and Construction Industry with 62,994.3 million shares valued at 1.689 billion yuan [18] New Stock Calendar - Two new stocks will be issued from January 5 to January 9, 2026, including Zhixin Co. on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and Kema Materials on the Beijing Stock Exchange [21] Institutional Outlook - Institutions expect the market to transition from a "structural bull" to an "index bull" in 2026, with a focus on AI applications, humanoid robot mass production, and mergers and acquisitions [24] - Zhongtai Securities emphasizes the potential in AI application industries, predicting a positive outlook for the computer sector [25] - Huachuang Securities anticipates accelerated development of domestic AI computing chips due to restrictions on overseas chips [26] - Goldman Sachs notes that overseas investments are increasingly favoring Chinese assets, predicting a 13% average price increase in global stocks in 2026 [29]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the domestic economy is expected to show moderate growth in 2026, driven by a stable and progressive economic policy and positive changes in both internal and external economic environments [1] - The structure of domestic demand is anticipated to undergo significant changes, with a reduced impact from real estate and an increased emphasis on consumption, particularly in "investing in people" as a key direction for expanding domestic demand [1] - The ongoing "anti-involution" policies are expected to alleviate the supply-demand imbalance, promoting a recovery in corporate profits and improvement in profit margins [1] Group 2 - The market is projected to shift from the extreme conditions of 2025 to a more balanced state in 2026, with the past two years characterized by liquidity chasing scarce assets [1] - In the context of a dual easing fiscal and monetary environment, the renminbi is expected to stabilize and recover in the short term, marking the beginning of value allocation and valuation recovery for Chinese assets [1] - Despite increased volatility in the US stock market, the long-term development trend of AI is accelerating, with significant focus on the commercialization of intelligent agents and investment opportunities in the broader technology sector remaining a key theme for 2026 [1] Group 3 - The Hong Kong stock market's decline in Q4 2025 was primarily influenced by liquidity contraction, but current valuations are considered to have high cost-effectiveness [2] - As an offshore market, Hong Kong stocks tend to exhibit greater resilience during the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle, with internet assets possessing both technology and cyclical attributes suitable for left-side positioning [2] - The long-term outlook for the equity market remains optimistic, with a recommendation for balanced investment strategies that consider individual risk preferences, highlighting structural opportunities in cyclical resources, export chains, and core assets [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the domestic economy is expected to show moderate growth in 2026, driven by a stable yet progressive economic policy and positive changes in both internal and external economic environments [1] - The structure of domestic demand is anticipated to undergo significant changes, with a reduced impact from real estate and an increased emphasis on consumption, particularly in "investing in people" as a key direction for expanding domestic demand [1] - The ongoing "anti-involution" policies are expected to alleviate the supply-demand imbalance, promoting a recovery in corporate profits and improvement in profit margins [1] Group 2 - The market is projected to shift from the extreme conditions of 2025 to a more balanced state in 2026, with the past two years characterized by liquidity chasing scarce assets [1] - In the context of a dual easing fiscal and monetary environment, the Chinese yuan is expected to stabilize and recover in the short term, marking the beginning of value allocation and valuation recovery for Chinese assets [1] - Despite increased volatility in the US stock market, the long-term development trend of AI is accelerating, with significant focus on the commercialization of intelligent agents and investment opportunities in the broader technology sector remaining a key theme for 2026 [1] Group 3 - The Hong Kong stock market's decline in Q4 2025 was primarily influenced by liquidity contraction, but current valuations are considered to have high cost-effectiveness [2] - As an offshore market, Hong Kong stocks tend to exhibit greater resilience during the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle, with internet assets possessing both technology and cyclical attributes suitable for left-side positioning [2] - The long-term outlook for the equity market remains optimistic, with a recommendation for balanced investment strategies that consider individual risk preferences, highlighting structural opportunities in cyclical resources, export chains, and core assets alongside technology growth [2]

其次，中国经济基本面的持续改善与内生动力的稳步增强，是中国资产"吸金"的核心支撑。过去一年， 中国经济在应对困难挑战中显现出强劲韧性，经济结构转型成效加速显现。 据国家统计局最新数据，2025年12月份，制造业PMI（制造业采购经理指数）为50.1%，自去年4月份以 来首次升至扩张区间。其中，高技术制造业PMI为52.5%，比上月上升2.4个百分点，行业增长态势向 好。装备制造业和消费品行业PMI均为50.4%，分别比上月上升0.6个和1.0个百分点，双双升至扩张区 间。 ■田鹏 2026年开年，中国资产便展现出强劲的"吸金力"。截至1月2日收盘，恒生指数当日大涨2.76%，恒生科 技指数涨幅高达4%。 在笔者看来，港股市场走强不仅点燃了市场情绪，更凸显出中国资产全球吸引力的显著提升。这股"吸 金力"并非偶然的短期脉冲，而是政策红利、经济基本面与全球流动性格局多重因素共同作用的结果。 首先，稳步扩大高水平对外开放、精准发力支持科技创新以及持续优化外商投资环境，共同构筑起一套 全方位、多层次的政策体系，为中国资产吸引力提升提供坚实基础。 具体来看，其一，从资本市场互联互通机制优化，到跨境服务贸易负面清单缩减，一 ...

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