该行认为，全球其他地区的地缘政治不确定性上升，将有助提升中国资产吸引力，香港市场将因其估值 仍属合理、全球投资者仓位较少、股票投资机会众多，以及新股市场非常活跃等因素，成为投资者首选 市场，相信短期内港股可应跑赢A股市场，但最终将取决于全球波动能否快速消退。 大摩又指，年初至今投资者经历了一轮较长的牛市行情，加上临近农历新年，因此会出现部分获利离场 情况，目前在A股市场中偏好大型股多于小型股;若全球波动趋向缓和，则更偏好港股。 摩根士丹利发布研报称，虽然近日环球市场表现波动，港股和中国A股市场亦于上周五(30日)显著回 调，但仍相信有效的A股降温措施、美元兑人民币走强，以及对香港的长期监管支持初见成效，可持续 为A股及港股市场提供正面流动性支持。 ...

Group 1: Strategy Overview - The report emphasizes the resilience of the A-share market amidst multiple overseas risks and signals of regulatory easing in China, suggesting that the relationship between market performance and regulatory changes warrants further consideration [5][12] - It highlights the significant outperformance of the A-share market compared to other major indices, particularly the CSI 300, which has faced substantial redemption pressure [5][12] - The report suggests that investors should not overly worry about the CSI 300's performance, as it has already aligned with regulatory easing requirements, reducing the necessity for further pressure [5][12] Group 2: Economic Insights - China's exports continued to show strong performance in December, driven by overseas investment during a global easing cycle, positively impacting sectors like electrical and mechanical equipment [6][13] - Domestic consumption is recovering, with a rebound in per capita consumer spending in the fourth quarter, aligning with the report's annual strategy predictions [6][13] - The report notes that recent government policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and stabilizing real estate are expected to support synchronized recovery in both domestic and external demand [6][13] Group 3: Asset Allocation and Investment Recommendations - The report identifies a dual focus for 2026 on physical assets and Chinese assets, with thematic investments being essential [7][16] - Recommended sectors include physical assets such as copper, aluminum, tin, gold, lithium, and oil, alongside Chinese equipment export chains like electrical grid equipment and renewable energy [7][16] - The report also highlights sectors benefiting from capital market expansion and improving long-term asset returns, such as non-bank financials and consumer sectors like aviation and duty-free retail [7][16] Group 4: Company-Specific Insights - **Yunnan Aluminum Co. (000807.SZ)**: The report recommends a long-term investment due to favorable conditions for aluminum exports and a strong balance sheet, with potential for increased dividends [18] - **Hua Aluminum (600301.SH)**: The company is seen as a strong growth candidate due to rising tin and antimony prices and its position as a key beneficiary of metal consolidation in Guangxi [19] - **Yingliu Co. (603308.SH)**: The report anticipates a surge in global gas turbine demand, positioning the company to increase its market share in turbine blades [20] - **Shangfeng Cement (000672.SZ)**: The company is recognized for its strong cash flow from cement operations and potential for significant dividends [21] - **Pop Mart (9992.HK)**: The company is expected to maintain rapid growth in the entertainment market through IP incubation and diverse monetization strategies [22] - **China Duty Free Group (601888.SH)**: The company is projected to strengthen its market position in the duty-free sector, benefiting from increased inbound tourism and overseas expansion [24] - **China Southern Airlines (1055.HK)**: The airline is expected to benefit from improved industry supply-demand dynamics and a large fleet size [25] - **Li Auto (2015.HK)**: The company is focusing on advancements in AI and smart driving technology, with expectations for increased vehicle sales [26] - **Lante Optics (688127.SH)**: The company is positioned to benefit from strong demand in automotive and smart imaging sectors [27] - **InnoCare Pharma (9606.HK)**: The company is advancing in the ADC field with a robust pipeline and partnerships, with several products nearing clinical registration [29]

在中航证券首席经济学家董忠云看来，当前多国央行宣布暂停降息，应理解为全球宽松进程的节奏放 缓，而非流动性的全面收紧。即使海外市场流动性进一步宽松的速度暂时放缓，但当前全球整体流动性 环境仍处于相对宽松状态，特别是市场对美联储等在2026年启动降息的预期依然存在，这将对流动性形 成支撑。 截至北京时间1月29日中国证券报·中证金牛座记者发稿时，1月以来已有美联储、瑞典央行、挪威央 行、加拿大央行等多个重要经济体央行选择暂停降息。2024年以来新一轮宽松周期有放缓脚步的迹象， 这对大类资产配置会带来怎样的影响值得关注。 大类资产配置该如何调整？权益市场方面，董忠云建议，一方面，聚焦高景气成长赛道，特别是人工智 能产业链（包括算力基础设施、半导体、端侧硬件）及高端制造（机器人、新能源）；另一方面，可配 置高股息红利资产（如银行、公用事业、能源央企等）作为防御底仓。 对于黄金和债市，王开认为，黄金等贵金属短期走高后不排除震荡调整风险，但黄金长期配置逻辑并未 改变。对于债券市场，建议以票息策略为主，不宜过度通过加杠杆博取资本利得。 外围流动性宽松节奏放缓对中国资产影响几何？国信证券首席策略分析师王开认为，实质性影响有限 ...

Market Overview - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell over 500 points, closing down 1.02%, while the Nasdaq index rose by 0.81% [1][3] - The S&P 500 index saw a slight increase of 0.31% [3] - The market experienced a significant shift in capital, with semiconductor, gold, silver, and Chinese concept stocks emerging as major winners [1] Sector Performance - Semiconductor stocks, particularly Micron Technology, saw gains exceeding 5% due to favorable news regarding price increases for memory chips supplied to Apple [4][5] - Traditional sectors, including silver mining and healthcare, faced declines, with major companies like UnitedHealth and HCA Healthcare seeing stock drops of nearly 17% and over 16%, respectively [3] - The precious metals market saw gold prices rise to $5065 per ounce, while silver prices increased by over 2% [5] Chinese Stocks - Chinese concept stocks performed well, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index showing significant gains [7] - Individual stocks like Huya surged over 20%, driven by the success of a new game, while other companies like Su Xuan Tang Pharmaceuticals and Kingsoft Cloud also saw substantial increases [7] Macroeconomic Factors - The U.S. dollar index fell to 96.37, marking a five-month low, which made dollar-denominated assets cheaper for foreign investors [3] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates in its upcoming meeting, marking a pause after three consecutive rate cuts [8] - Goldman Sachs predicts the next rate cut could occur in June, with a potential reduction of 25 basis points [9]

Group 1 - The weakening of the US dollar benefits Chinese assets, particularly in the context of a significant market adjustment triggered by this change [3] - Precious metals, such as gold and silver, are experiencing upward momentum due to the dollar's decline, while US Treasury bonds are facing substantial downward adjustments [3] - The Hong Kong market has shown a notable increase, with an overall rise exceeding 2%, attributed to the favorable conditions created by the weaker dollar [3] Group 2 - The change in the dollar's value is linked to comments made by former President Trump, who stated that he is not concerned about the dollar's trend and views it as a return to reasonable value [3] - Trump also highlighted the currency devaluation practices of Japan and China, suggesting that the US could adopt similar strategies [3]

（来源：经济参考报） 2025年，面对外部环境的冲击，在总量迈上新台阶的同时，我国经济展现出"向新而行"的鲜明特征，经 济新动能不断发展壮大。在这一背景下，近期不少外资机构纷纷"唱多"中国经济和中国资产。业内人士 指出，2026年A股上市公司的盈利将迎来拐点，这也将支持权益市场延续"稳进"趋势。 外资机构看多中国资产 日前发布的2025年国民经济运行情况显示，我国国民经济顶住多重压力保持稳中有进发展态势，高质量 发展取得新成效。国内生产总值首次跃上140万亿元新台阶，比上年增长5.0%。同时，我国科技硬实力 不断跃升。2025年，全社会研究与试验发展经费投入达到39262亿元，已经多年稳居世界第二位。2025 年，规模以上装备制造业、高技术制造业增加值占规模以上工业增加值的比重分别达到36.8%和 17.1%。这一份出色的"答卷"，也进一步增强了外界对于中国经济的信心。近期，不少外资机构纷纷上 调中国经济增长预期，并表示看好中国经济的巨大潜力与韧性，看好中国资产价格。 从企业盈利的角度来看，华安证券表示，A股上市公司在2026年四个季度的单季度盈利规模都有望创 2020年以来的新高。高盈利规模为估值消化和行情 ...

Group 1 - US stock market showed mixed performance with Dow Jones down 0.62%, Nasdaq up 0.57%, and S&P 500 up 0.27% [1] - US healthcare stocks fell sharply, with UnitedHealth down nearly 17%, Humana down over 16%, and Cigna down nearly 10% following a proposal to slightly increase payment rates for insurance companies [1] - Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index saw an initial rise of over 1%, closing up 0.79%, with notable gains from companies like Huya up 15.97%, Kingsoft Cloud up 11.54%, and Bilibili up 4.29% [1] Group 2 - Storage sector stocks in the US experienced gains, with SanDisk up over 6%, Micron Technology up over 5%, and Western Digital and Seagate Technology both up over 1% [3] - Google announced a price adjustment for data transmission methods effective May 1, 2026, with North America prices doubling [3] Group 3 - Corning saw a rise of 7.8% as Meta plans to pay up to $6 billion for procurement [4] - General Motors increased by 5.4% after reporting core profits above expectations for Q4 2025 and plans to invest $5 billion to expand manufacturing capacity for high-demand models in the US [4] Group 4 - US natural gas futures dropped over 10% to $6.106 per million British thermal units, while Brent crude oil futures rose by 1% to $65.419 per barrel [5]

央视网消息：近期，随着2025年全年经济数据发布，多家国际金融机构表示，中国经济展现出强劲韧性与活力，2026年将为世界发 展注入更多确定性。 多家机构对中国出口的结构性升级尤为看好，认为中国出口已从"成本优势驱动"转向"技术与供应链效率驱动"，在新质生产力领域 已经形成全球不可替代的产能集群。 瑞银证券研究部总监徐宾表示，中国企业通过产品升级创新，产品组合优化以及更多服务出口积极出海，包括汽车、电池、太阳 能、电网设备。 科技创新驱动 外资加码布局中国资产 随着中国股市持续回暖，多家外资机构在研报中也明确表示，中国企业基本面的稳步改善，2026年将继续"超配、高配"中国资产。 渣打中国财富方案部首席投资策略师王昕杰表示，中国资产对于全球投资者来讲，兼具高质量盈利增长，也有强劲的宏观政策的支 持，可以成为投资者作为全球配置的一个核心标的。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the current market is experiencing a spring rally, characterized by a recovery in market confidence and a focus on sectors that are not heavily weighted in broad-based ETFs, particularly in consumer and real estate chains [2][3][4][10] - The liquidity environment is a key driver of the current spring rally, supported by new insurance premiums entering the market and the return of overseas funds due to the appreciation of the RMB [4][7] - The market is expected to see a structural bull market with alternating phases of upward and sideways movements, with the current phase transitioning from the second to the third upward segment [6][12][14] Group 2 - Investment opportunities are identified in sectors with strong earnings forecasts, particularly in AI hardware, batteries, pharmaceuticals, steel, and non-bank financials [5][9][11] - The focus on "technology + resource products" is emphasized, with sectors such as semiconductors, AI, new energy, and chemicals being highlighted for their growth potential [7][9] - The market is advised to pay attention to the performance of cyclical stocks and the impact of regulatory policies on market dynamics, particularly in the context of the anticipated earnings reports from listed companies [10][12][13]

Group 1: Market Resilience Amid Regulatory Tightening - The A-share market has shown resilience despite multiple overseas risks and domestic regulatory cooling, with trading activity and volatility increasing recently [3][12][16] - The market's optimism is deemed necessary, as thematic investments have not yet cooled down, indicating ongoing opportunities for investors [3][27] - The relationship between market performance and regulatory cooling is crucial, particularly regarding sectors with concentrated leverage [3][16] Group 2: Domestic Economy: Strong Export Performance and Recovery in Domestic Demand - China's export growth in December exceeded expectations, driven by global investment trends, particularly in AI-related sectors and emerging markets [4][29][33] - The recovery in domestic consumption is evident, with a rebound in per capita spending and improvements in service consumption, supported by recent government policies aimed at boosting domestic demand [4][42][43] - The government has introduced various measures to stimulate investment and stabilize the real estate market, which are expected to enhance economic recovery [4][51][52] Group 3: Overseas: Inflation No Longer a Concern for Rate Cuts - The focus of U.S. economic policy is shifting towards reducing living costs, indicating a reduced necessity for the Federal Reserve to control inflation through monetary tightening [5][53] - The K-shaped economic recovery in the U.S. suggests that inflation risks are lower, particularly in the service sector, which may influence future monetary policy [5][53] Group 4: Commodity Price Increases: Revaluation of Physical Assets - The recent rise in commodity prices reflects a shift towards physical assets as investment tools, with higher value commodities experiencing greater price increases [5][24] - The current pricing of commodities as physical assets is not yet at extreme levels, suggesting potential for further appreciation, particularly in gold and industrial metals [5][26][27] - The investment landscape is increasingly favoring physical assets alongside Chinese assets, with specific recommendations for sectors such as copper, lithium, and renewable energy equipment [5][29]