Core Insights - The eighth China International Import Expo (CIIE) showcased the resilience of American companies, with exhibition space exceeding 50,000 square meters, maintaining the largest participation among countries for seven consecutive years [1] - Despite ongoing trade tensions between China and the U.S., American firms are seizing strategic opportunities in the Chinese market, particularly in the agricultural sector [1] Agricultural Cooperation - The President of the American Chamber of Commerce in China, Michael Hart, emphasized the importance of agriculture in the U.S., noting that it is a key economic pillar in 49 out of 50 states [3] - Hart highlighted the shared concern for food security between the U.S. and China, despite the impact of tariffs on agricultural exports, particularly soybeans and sorghum [3][4] - Mark Wilson, a farmer and global president of the U.S. Grains Council, expressed a commitment to maintaining relationships with Chinese clients, viewing the market as highly valuable despite current challenges [4][5] Market Engagement - The increasing number of American companies participating in the CIIE reflects the significance of the Chinese market and the value of direct cooperation [5] - American businesses are using the expo to showcase innovations and connect with partners, aiming to better understand market trends in China [5] Concerns and Future Outlook - The American Chamber of Commerce conducts annual surveys to gauge concerns among U.S. companies, with current worries centered on U.S.-China relations [7] - Recent high-level meetings between the two nations' leaders are seen as positive signals for future relations, with calls for continued dialogue and concrete measures to address business concerns [7] - Both Hart and Wilson believe that focusing on common interests rather than differences is crucial for progress, with potential collaboration in areas like green energy, healthcare, and digital innovation [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The recent trade tensions between China and the U.S. illustrate a complex relationship where initial goodwill is quickly undermined by subsequent actions, highlighting a lack of genuine cooperation and trust [1][3][15]. Group 1: Trade Dynamics - China recently placed a significant order for 180,000 tons of soybeans from the U.S., signaling a desire for improved economic relations [3]. - Following this order, the U.S. announced a reduction in tariffs on certain Chinese goods, including a drop from high tariffs to 10% on fentanyl-related products, while also suspending a 24% tariff for a year [5][6]. - Despite these gestures, U.S. officials expressed skepticism about China's compliance with previous trade agreements, indicating a lack of trust [5][6]. Group 2: U.S. Actions Against Chinese Companies - Concurrently with tariff adjustments, the U.S. Federal Communications Commission initiated new restrictions targeting Chinese companies, citing national security concerns [8]. - New regulations could lead to the rejection of new applications and the removal of existing products from the market if they contain specific Chinese components, despite a lack of substantial evidence for these claims [8][9]. - This move resulted in a significant number of Chinese electronic products being removed from major U.S. e-commerce platforms, impacting availability and pricing for American consumers [9]. Group 3: Implications for Consumers and Market Dynamics - The actions taken by the U.S. are seen as detrimental not only to Chinese companies but also to American consumers, who may face higher prices and reduced product availability [9][11]. - China's response emphasizes that the U.S. is politicizing trade issues under the guise of national security, which undermines fair market competition and international norms [11][13]. - The ongoing trade relationship is characterized as interdependent, with both nations benefiting from mutual trade, suggesting that unilateral actions could lead to negative outcomes for both sides [15][17].

截至2025年11月7日当周，全球小麦市场在中美贸易关系缓和的乐观预期和出口市场激烈竞争之间摇 摆。芝加哥小麦期货在经历了空头回补带来的反弹后，再次因美国小麦在出口市场的竞争劣势而承压。 俄罗斯小麦出口加快，南半球丰产的小麦正在收获上市，成为笼罩在小麦市场上的阴云。 本周美国小麦市场经历了典型的"消息驱动"行情。周初，中国询盘乃至采购美国小麦的传闻持续发酵， 引发空头大规模回补。但是涨势未能在后半周延续，因为有分析指出，美国小麦FOB价格仍比全球其他 产地高出5至10美元，导致卖压再次涌现。美国小麦冲高回落表明，在缺乏大规模需求的情况下，美国 小麦难以维持涨势。 贸易曙光初现，但可持续性存疑 （来源：中华粮网） 来源：中华粮网 中华粮网致力于成为中国粮食行业最权威、最专业的信息及数据服务提供商。 市场最大变量为中国采购前景。中国本周证实，自11月10日起将暂停对包括小麦在内的美国农产品加征 的额外关税，为期一年。随后市场传出中国已采购至少一到两船美国白麦和硬红春麦，这将是一年多来 首次采购，被视为上周两国领导人达成贸易共识后的"善意姿态"。 但是美国政府持续停摆导致官方出口销售报告暂停发布，这些采购传闻无法获 ...

Trade Data Overview - In October 2025, exports decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, down from 8.3% in September, while imports increased by 1.0%, down from 7.4%[2] - The trade surplus for October was $90.07 billion, a decrease of $5.64 billion compared to the same month last year[2] Export Performance - The two-year compound growth rate for October exports was 5.55%, indicating resilience despite the month-on-month decline of 7.0%[2] - Exports to the U.S. saw a slight recovery, with a year-on-year decrease of 25.17%, improving by 1.86 percentage points from September[2] - Exports to the EU, ASEAN, and Japan all experienced declines, with year-on-year decreases of 13.26, 4.67, and 7.52 percentage points, respectively[2] Import Trends - October imports showed a significant month-on-month decline of 9.5%, weaker than the four-year average of -6.22%[2] - Key imports such as fertilizers and copper ore saw notable increases, while traditional demand-related imports like iron ore and steel continued to decline[2] Sector Insights - Midstream products dominated exports, with machinery and high-tech products experiencing declines of 9.7% and 11.4% year-on-year, respectively[2] - Certain sectors like shipbuilding and automotive showed significant recovery, reflecting ongoing strengths in midstream manufacturing[2] Economic Outlook - The report highlights the need for policy support to stabilize domestic demand, as import growth remains low despite five consecutive months of positive growth[3] - Risks include potential delays in domestic policy implementation and changes in U.S.-China tariff issues[3]

【文/观察者网 阮佳琪】 中美近期相继调整多个关税或非关税措施，开始落实双方吉隆坡经贸磋商达成的成果共识。 据路透社等6日报道，当地时间周四，美国特朗普政府宣布，作为缓解贸易紧张局势更广泛协议的一部 分，正式敲定对涉华船舶暂停征收一年期美国港口费用的计划。彭博社指出，此为特朗普在与中方贸易 协定谈判中做出的一项"关键让步"。 据报道，美国贸易代表办公室（USTR）在《联邦公报》公告中称，自11月10日起，将暂停因"301条 款"贸易调查对中国采取的所有惩罚性措施。意见征询期截至当地时间周五（7日）下午。 美方公告中称，"美国将自2025年11月10日起，暂停本调查中采取的应对措施，为期一年。美国还将依 据301条款，就本调查中提出的相关问题与中国进行谈判。" 公告未披露谈判的启动方式及具体目标，仅表示美国将继续推进本国造船业振兴工作，包括与日本、韩 国等主要盟友及合作伙伴展开相关磋商和历史性合作。 此外，美国还同步暂停了对岸边集装箱起重机和卡车集装箱联运底盘征收的100%关税。 USTR的最新公告显示，港口费用及起重机关税的暂停期限将持续至2026年11月9日美国东部标准时间 晚间23点59分。公告指出，"暂 ...

Core Insights - The recent trade truce between China and the U.S. has led to a normalization of trade relations, with the U.S. reducing tariffs on China and China resuming soybean imports from the U.S. [3][5] - China has made a rare inquiry about purchasing U.S. wheat, marking its first interest in U.S. wheat in nearly a year, which is seen as a goodwill gesture towards the U.S. [3][5] - The inquiry has caused a significant impact on U.S. futures markets, with Chicago wheat futures rising by 1.8%, reaching a new high since July [5] Trade Dynamics - The inquiry for U.S. wheat follows China's recent soybean orders, indicating a strategic approach to gauge U.S. responses and potentially create a trade surplus for the U.S. [5][7] - The U.S. benefits politically from increased agricultural imports from China, which could enhance Trump's domestic standing amid political struggles [7][9] - China's diversified grain import strategy aims to ensure food security and stability, reducing reliance on any single country, including the U.S. [11][12] Global Context - The global agricultural landscape is affected by climate change and geopolitical tensions, necessitating China's imports to balance domestic supply and demand [12] - China's position as a major consumer market with significant purchasing power is crucial for U.S. economic interests [9][12] - Despite external pressures, China maintains a strategic focus on its trade relations with the U.S., emphasizing the importance of cooperation over conflict [14]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Buy Recommendations**: None - **Sell Recommendations**: None - **Hold Recommendations**: None - **Neutral Recommendations**: None - **Specific Ratings for Commodities**: - **Douyi (Soybean 1)**: ★★★ (Red stars, indicating a predicted upward trend) [1] - **Douyou (Soybean Oil)**: ★★★ (Red stars, indicating a predicted upward trend) [1] - **Biaowangyou (Labeled Oil)**: ★★★ (Red stars, indicating a predicted upward trend) [1] - **Doupo (Soybean Meal)**: ★☆☆ (One red star, indicating a bullish bias but limited trading operability) [1] - **Caipo (Rapeseed Meal)**: ★★★ (Red stars, indicating a predicted upward trend) [1] - **Yaoyou (Medicinal Oil)**: ★★★ (Red stars, indicating a predicted upward trend) [1] - **Yumi (Corn)**: ★★★ (Red stars, indicating a predicted upward trend) [1] - **Shengzhu (Live Pigs)**: ★★★ (Red stars, indicating a predicted upward trend) [1] - **Jidan (Eggs)**: ★☆☆ (One red star, indicating a bullish bias but limited trading operability) [1] Core Views - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various agricultural products, including soybeans, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, live pigs, and eggs. It assesses the market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and price movements of each product, and gives investment suggestions based on these analyses [2][3][4][6][7][8]. Summary by Commodity Soybean 1 - The main contract of Douyi significantly reduced its positions, and the price declined from the high level, affected by surrounding commodities. The price of US soybeans dropped from the high due to the easing of trade optimism. CGC started soybean procurement, with a preference for high - quality soybeans. The supply of domestic high - protein soybeans is tight this year due to adverse weather, and the market has optimistic expectations for them. Short - term policy guidance should be continuously monitored [2]. Soybean and Soybean Meal - The Dalian futures contract continued to fluctuate widely and correct. The tariff for importing US soybeans in China is now 13%, and there is still no price advantage for commercial imports. As of November 6, the CNF price of US Gulf/West soybeans (December shipment) is $506/ton, and that of Brazilian soybeans (December shipment) is $500/ton. With similar CNF prices and a 10% tariff difference, commercial purchases are unlikely. As the import cost rises, the crushing margin has improved, and it is expected that there will be a destocking situation for domestic soybeans in the first quarter of next year. The USDA will release the November supply - demand report on November 14. Opportunities for buying on dips after the easing of Sino - US trade relations should be followed [3]. Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - The price of US soybeans dropped from the high due to the easing of trade optimism. After the recent rise, the spread between the near - month FOB premium of US soybeans and that of Brazil has recovered to a higher level than the same period last year. The market is expected to focus on the guidance of the USDA report. Palm oil stopped falling and rebounded, but the rebound momentum on the disk is still weak. After the recent decline, the bearish momentum of palm oil has been continuously released, and the short - selling momentum at the price stage has eased. Whether the performance at this position is sustainable should be monitored. The probability of a short - term stabilization of palm oil with a bearish near - term supply - demand situation should be followed [4]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The expected pressure on the price of overseas oilseeds has a negative impact on the domestic rapeseed futures prices, and the main contracts of rapeseed products declined slightly. Canadian farmers are less willing to sell rapeseed due to low prices, and exports have increased slightly but remain sluggish. Although the news of strengthened rapeseed trade between Canada and Pakistan has boosted the export prospects of Canadian rapeseed, the market capacity of Pakistan is limited. The price of rapeseed futures is expected to remain under pressure. Domestic coastal oil mills have shut down due to a shortage of rapeseed. The arrival of Australian rapeseed in China should be monitored. The price difference between rapeseed products and other competing products is still high, which suppresses the consumption cost - effectiveness of rapeseed products. It is recommended to change the short - term long strategy for rapeseed meal to a wait - and - see approach and focus on the marginal changes at the oilseed import end [6]. Corn - Dalian corn futures fluctuated weakly. The increase in the supply of new corn in Northeast China has decreased, and the price is stable with a slight upward trend. In Shandong, the supply has increased, and the number of remaining vehicles at deep - processing plants in the morning is 1353. Sino - US relations may ease, and after the tax reduction announced by the Tariff Commission of the State Council, the tariff for importing US corn in China is now 11% within the quota and 75% outside the quota. The signing of the latest Sino - US economic and trade agreement should be continuously monitored. The change in the enthusiasm of grain listing in the Northeast should be followed, and currently, the market is considered to be in a weak bottom - range oscillation, and the inflection point is not clear [6]. Live Pigs - The price of live pig futures fluctuated within a narrow range, and the overall position increased. The spot price also showed a narrow - range consolidation. According to Yongyi data, the inventory of breeding sows decreased month - on - month in October, continuing the de - stocking trend for two consecutive months. Fundamentally, on one hand, due to the continuous recovery of production capacity, the number of live pig slaughterings will continue to increase in the later stage. On the other hand, the rebound of pig prices after the National Day was mainly driven by the entry of second - fattening farmers. However, second - fattening will increase the later - stage slaughtering pressure, and the average slaughter weight of live pigs this year is at the highest level in the past three years. The slaughter of second - fattened pigs will further impact the spot market. The futures market has priced in the potential supply pressure in advance. Historically, the bottom of the pig cycle often shows a double - bottom "W" shape. The low pig price in October is likely the first emotional bottoming, and it is expected that pig prices will have a high probability of a second bottoming in the first half of next year under the background of continuous supply pressure and off - season demand [7]. Eggs - Egg futures first declined and then rose, with an overall reduction in positions. The spot price increased today. The in - production inventory decreased slightly month - on - month in October but is still at a historically high level. The chick replenishment data in October remained sluggish, which is beneficial for improving the long - term supply outlook. However, the far - month contracts already contain a high price premium. The number of culled laying hens in the spot market increased, and the culling age decreased, indicating that the sentiment of culling old hens has increased. The disk has maintained a strong pattern recently, and opportunities for shorting on highs in the fourth quarter should be awaited [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the CBOT soybean market fluctuated with news of China's soybean purchases from the US, and the domestic soybean meal market followed suit. The soybean oil market was weak, and the palm oil market awaited the MPOB report. The domestic vegetable oil market showed a differentiated trend [6][60]. - Next week, the protein - meal market will focus on the USDA report, with expectations of a significant reduction in US soybean inventory. The domestic soybean meal market has high inventory pressure and is driven by cost. The oil market will pay attention to the MPOB report and 11 - day export data in November. The overall oil market is weakly operating, awaiting the guidance of the two reports [125][126]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Protein Meal Market Analysis 3.1.1 Weekly Market Review - The CBOT soybean price first rose and then fell this week. The domestic soybean meal market followed the trend of US soybeans, with the futures price rising first and then falling. Although the domestic soybean meal inventory reached a new high, the oil mills' willingness to support the price of soybean meal increased due to losses [6]. 3.1.2 US Market - US Soybean Export Situation - As of the week ending October 30, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 965,063 tons, a decrease from the previous week and the same period last year. The cumulative export inspection volume in the 2025/26 season decreased by 40.0% year - on - year, and the export reached 17.0% of the annual target [13]. 3.1.3 North American Market - South American Weather - As of October 30, 2025, the sowing progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 47%, higher than that of the previous week but lower than the same period last year. Some regions had problems such as excessive rainfall or insufficient rainfall [24]. 3.1.4 Domestic and Foreign Oilseed Markets - Chinese importers increased their purchases of Brazilian soybeans due to price advantages. The US Department of Agriculture will release a production report and a supply - demand report on November 14, which will adjust the production expectations of major crops [24][31]. 3.1.5 Soybean - Port Inventory and Pressing Profit - As of the end of the 44th week, the domestic port's imported soybean inventory was about 8.4022 million tons, and the theoretical inventory at the end of next week is expected to be 5.04 million tons. The domestic soybean pressing is still in a loss situation, but the loss has narrowed [37]. 3.1.6 Soybean - Import Cost and Domestic - Foreign Price Difference - The cost of US Gulf soybeans arriving at the port in December (with additional tariffs) is 4,891 yuan/ton, and that of Brazilian soybeans arriving in November is 3,949 yuan/ton. The Brazilian premium dropped significantly this week [41]. 3.1.7 Soybean Meal - Soybean Starting Rate and Soybean Meal Inventory - As of the end of the 44th week, the average starting rate of domestic soybean oil mills was 61.59%, a decrease of 4.83% from the previous week. The domestic soybean meal inventory was 1.208 million tons, an increase of 156,000 tons from the previous week [45]. 3.1.8 Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Weekly Apparent Consumption - The estimated apparent consumption of soybean meal in the 44th week was 1.6624 million tons, a decrease from the previous week [47]. 3.1.9 Rapeseed Meal - Rapeseed Starting Rate and Pressing Volume - As of the end of the 44th week, the starting rate of domestic imported rapeseed processing enterprises was 1.47%, an increase of 0.49% from the previous week. The pressing volume of imported rapeseed was 0.6 million tons, an increase of 0.2 million tons from the previous week [53]. 3.2 Grease Market Analysis 3.2.1 Weekly Market Review - This week, the US soybean oil was in a low - level shock, and the Malaysian palm oil oscillated downward. The domestic vegetable oil market showed a differentiated trend. The soybean oil rose slightly, the palm oil was weak, and the rapeseed oil rebounded slightly [60]. 3.2.2 International Grease Information - The MPOB will release monthly supply - demand data on November 10. It is estimated that the Malaysian palm oil inventory in October will reach 2.44 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.4%. Indian edible oil imports in October are estimated to have dropped to a five - month low [64][65]. 3.2.3 Three Major Vegetable Oil Futures and Spot Price Trends - The futures and spot prices of the three major vegetable oils showed different trends, with the overall performance of rapeseed oil > soybean oil > palm oil this week, and the soybean - palm oil price difference continued to rise [98]. 3.2.4 Domestic Grease Inventory - As of the end of the 44th week, the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils was 2.5728 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 58,200 tons. Among them, the soybean oil inventory was 1.4618 million tons, the palm oil inventory was 0.5383 million tons, and the rapeseed oil inventory was 0.5728 million tons [81]. 3.2.5 Grease Basis Analysis - The basis of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil showed different trends, with the basis of each variety fluctuating [89][92][95]. 3.2.6 Grease and Oilseed Variety Arbitrage Relationship - This week, the oil - meal ratio of soybeans and rapeseed decreased, and the price difference between the main contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal narrowed [103]. 3.2.7 Protein Meal Inter - Monthly Spread Arbitrage Relationship - This week, the 1 - 5 spread of soybean meal continued to rise [108]. 3.2.8 Grease Inter - Monthly Spread Arbitrage Relationship - This week, the 1 - 5 spread of soybean oil rebounded slightly, the 1 - 5 spread of palm oil fluctuated narrowly, and the 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil also fluctuated narrowly [111]. 3.3 Market Outlook 3.3.1 Seasonal Analysis - The seasonal analysis of the US soybean, soybean meal, domestic soybean meal, and other markets shows their historical price trends in different months [115][116][118]. 3.3.2 Next - Week Market Outlook - **Technical Level**: The short - term and medium - term indicators of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are bullish, and the long - term indicators are entangled. The short - term, medium - term, and long - term indicators of soybean oil and rapeseed oil are entangled. The short - term and medium - term indicators of palm oil are bearish, and the long - term indicators are entangled [124]. - **Fundamentals**: The protein - meal market focuses on the USDA report, with expectations of a significant reduction in US soybean inventory. The domestic soybean meal market has high inventory pressure and is driven by cost. The oil market pays attention to the MPOB report and 11 - day export data in November. The overall oil market is weakly operating, awaiting the guidance of the two reports [125][126].

Export Data Overview - In October, China's exports (in USD) recorded a year-on-year decline of -1.1%, down from +8.3% in September, marking the first negative growth since March 2025[3] - Exports to the US saw a significant drop of -25.2%, slightly improving from September's -27.0%[3] - Exports to ASEAN maintained resilience with a growth rate of +11.0%, down from +15.6% in September[3] Regional Export Performance - Exports to the EU grew by only +0.9%, a sharp decline from +14.2% in September[3] - Exports to Africa and Latin America still showed positive growth but decreased significantly, from +56.4% and +15.2% in September to +10.5% and +2.1% respectively[3] Product Category Insights - Labor-intensive products like clothing, bags, and footwear experienced substantial declines, with growth rates of -16.0%, -25.7%, and -21.0% respectively[3] - High-tech manufacturing exports remained strong, with mobile phone exports dropping from -1.7% in September to -16.6% in October, while integrated circuits, automobiles, and ships recorded growth rates of +26.9%, +34.0%, and +68.4% respectively[3] Seasonal and Trade Relationship Factors - October's export data reflects seasonal trends, with a historical average month-on-month decline of -3.8% due to the National Day holiday[3] - The easing of US-EU trade tensions has contributed to the decline in exports to the EU, with a month-on-month decrease of -8.6% in October[3] - The phenomenon of "export rush" appears to be waning, impacting growth rates to ASEAN and other emerging markets[3] Future Outlook and Risks - There is a potential risk of further decline in export growth rates in Q4, with the possibility of turning negative due to higher base effects in November and December[3] - Ongoing uncertainties in US-China trade relations and a potential slowdown in global economic growth pose additional risks to export performance[3]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry and Company Overview - The conference call discusses the performance and outlook of the hand tools and electric tools industry, focusing on two companies: **Giant Star Technology** and **Ousheng Electric** [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Giant Star Technology - **Market Position**: Giant Star Technology is a leading company in hand tools and electric tools, expanding revenue through acquisitions despite fluctuations due to tariffs and the pandemic [1][3]. - **Revenue Impact**: The company has experienced significant revenue volatility, particularly since 2018 due to U.S. tariffs and the pandemic, but has maintained double-digit profit growth due to investment income and government subsidies [2][3]. - **Production Capacity**: Currently, 73% of production capacity is in Southeast Asia, with only 20% in China. Future exports from China to the U.S. are expected to decline further to avoid high tariffs [1][8]. - **Market Demand**: Recent data indicates a 10% year-over-year decline in U.S. tool sales, but a recovery is anticipated as interest rates decrease and housing demand rebounds [11]. - **Strategic Response**: The company is diversifying its product offerings and strengthening distribution channels to adapt to market changes, while also transferring production capacity to Southeast Asia to mitigate tariff impacts [6][12]. Ousheng Electric - **Market Growth**: Ousheng Electric benefits from demand in the U.S. and emerging markets, with a new factory in Malaysia enhancing production capacity despite short-term performance challenges due to relocation [1][13]. - **Product Development**: The company has gained national endorsement for its elderly care robots, which are expected to benefit from an aging population and potential government subsidies [1][17]. - **Financial Performance**: Ousheng Electric reported a nearly 30% year-over-year decline in net profit for Q3 2025, contrasting with Giant Star's performance, which saw stock price increases prior to its mid-year report [2][15]. Additional Important Insights - **Tariff and Trade Relations**: The easing of U.S.-China trade relations and potential Federal Reserve easing policies are expected to positively impact the export sector, although the effects of previous tariffs and production relocations are still being felt [1][2]. - **Industry Characteristics**: The hand tools industry has a stable long-term growth rate of 5%-10%, driven by consistent consumer demand for home repair tools, which are considered essential [7]. - **Future Outlook**: Both companies are positioned for future growth, with Ousheng Electric's reliance on the U.S. market and Giant Star's diversified production strategy providing different but promising paths forward [16][17]. This summary encapsulates the key discussions from the conference call, highlighting the current state and future prospects of the companies and the industry as a whole.