投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2026-2-6 合成橡胶盘面弹性较大，关注低位支撑 油脂：供应预期承压，油脂弱势回调 蛋⽩粕：现货涨跌互现，双粕盘⾯震荡 ⽟⽶/淀粉：购销逐步清淡，期现震荡运⾏ ⽣猪：购销顺畅，猪价弱势 天然橡㬵：短期⽀撑仍有效 合成橡㬵：盘⾯弹性较⼤，关注低位⽀撑 棉花：震荡调整，节前缺乏单边趋势 ⽩糖：巴西⻝糖出⼝仍存潜⼒，中⻓期震荡偏弱预期不改 纸浆：针叶美⾦盘报平，基本⾯弱势更为明显 双㬵纸：商品转弱，双㬵回调 原⽊：冲⾼回落，原⽊区间运⾏ ⻛险因素：宏观大幅变动；气候异常；供需超预期变化 农业团队 【异动品种】 合成橡㬵观点：盘⾯弹性较⼤，关注低位⽀撑 逻辑：昨日BR盘面夜盘突然大幅下挫，而后日盘商品在贵金属继续大幅回 调的带动下走低，BR维持偏弱，但触及12500元/吨关口后获得支撑并小幅 反弹。从基本面来看并未出现明显变化，丁二烯成交也并不差，所以我们 认为盘面更多仅是调整需求。目前来说，中期核心逻辑暂时未变，即对于 丁二烯在2026上半年供应偏紧预期的交易。目前来说，在原料偏紧格局 下,商品情绪即使整体影响依旧较大，并造成盘面偶尔出 ...

重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 基本面VS关税，粕类短空长多 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 基本面VS关税，粕类短空长多 目 录 一.中美和中加关税 二.南美大豆丰产，粕类短期承压 三.粕类短空长多 四.其他农产品整体判断 一 .中美和中加关税 • 中美短期休兵，双方博弈"明转暗" • 中加关税恢复至冲突前 • 关税和贸易政策潜在冲突仍可能存在 中美短期休兵 • 中美达成"休战"协议（2025年10月吉隆坡）：第五轮磋商取 得实质性进展，双方达成贸易"休战"协议，核心成果包括： • 关税调整：美方取消针对中国商品加征的10%所谓"芬太尼关 税" ，24%的对等关税继续暂停一年；中方相应调整反制措施。 • 出口管制暂停：美方暂停实施其出口管制"50%穿透性规则"一 年；中方暂停实施相关反制措 ...

Group 1 - Chinese importers have confirmed the procurement of at least 25 shipments of Brazilian soybeans, scheduled for shipment between March and April this year [1] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary announced that China has fulfilled its commitment to purchase 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans, with expectations of 25 million tons annually over the next three years [1] - China, as the world's largest soybean importer, has a demand exceeding 100 million tons annually, accounting for 60% of the global market [1] Group 2 - Despite U.S. soybeans not being entirely uncompetitive, their pricing and trade terms have led to a loss of market share, particularly as China shifts towards Brazilian soybeans [3] - The procurement actions by China serve as a subtle warning to the U.S. regarding its importance in the soybean market, indicating that China is not solely reliant on U.S. products [3] - The current trade issues between the U.S. and China are primarily rooted in political factors, with the Trump administration struggling to ensure commitments made in trade relations [3] Group 3 - The increase in Chinese purchases of Brazilian soybeans coincides with visits from G7 leaders to Beijing, highlighting a shift in the international political and economic landscape [7] - This trend indicates an improvement in trade environments and recognition of China's ongoing open policies by the international community [7] - The decision to turn to Brazilian soybeans reflects a sophisticated political and economic strategy, emphasizing the need for balance in complex international relations [9]

Summary of Conference Call on Cotton Market Outlook Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the cotton industry, focusing on the Chinese cotton market and its dynamics with the U.S. market, including tariffs and production levels [1][3][6]. Key Points and Arguments Tariff Impact - China's tariff level remains high at approximately 20%, creating uncertainty in demand [1][3]. - In 2025, China's share of the U.S. apparel market decreased by about 5 percentage points, from 20% to 15.5%, indicating significant effects from tariffs [1][3]. Supply Chain Dynamics - Xinjiang's cotton production is a critical supply factor, with current public inspection volumes reaching 7.06 million tons and continuing to increase [1][3]. - Despite an expected record high production of 7.4 million tons in 2026, the lack of increased import quotas and stockpiling in 2025 has led to tight market supply and low ending inventories, supporting domestic cotton prices [1][7][8]. Downstream Business Conditions - Downstream enterprises, particularly cotton spinning companies, are facing poor operating conditions, contrasting sharply with rising upstream raw material prices [4][13]. - Weak terminal consumption is exerting pressure on both domestic demand and exports [4][6]. Global Cotton Market Trends - The global cotton market is experiencing a historical high in holding volumes, indicating that recent price increases are largely driven by capital involvement rather than just fundamental or policy support [23]. - Major cotton-producing countries like China, the U.S., and Brazil may reduce planting areas, leading to a decrease in global supply [12][15][17]. Future Demand and Consumption - Domestic cotton consumption in China is projected to be around 8.5 million tons in 2026, with an increase to 8.68 million tons in 2027, marking one of the highest levels in the past decade [27]. - However, the growth in consumption is heavily reliant on export increases rather than domestic demand, which remains low [27]. Price Dynamics - The external cotton market, particularly SE7 cotton prices, has been weak due to overall global supply being loose and increased competition from Brazilian cotton [11][12]. - The price gap between domestic and international cotton is currently around 3,000 yuan, the highest in recent years, which may lead to a substitution effect against domestic cotton consumption [22][32]. Macroeconomic and Policy Environment - The macroeconomic environment is expected to be more favorable compared to 2025, with a trend towards loosening that could positively impact commodity prices [24]. - Future policies regarding planting areas and target price subsidies will be crucial in determining the domestic market's supply-demand relationship [24][26]. Uncertainties in Production - Cotton production uncertainties stem from planting areas and weather conditions, which can significantly impact final yields [18]. Conclusion - The cotton market is navigating through a complex landscape of high tariffs, changing supply dynamics, and uncertain demand. The focus on domestic consumption growth and the impact of global economic conditions will be critical for future market stability and pricing strategies [1][6][20][24].

Core Insights - The US-China trade relationship remains the most significant trade relationship globally, with China's trade surplus expected to reach approximately $1.2 trillion by 2025, despite a notable decline in exports to the US [1][3] - In 2025, China's exports to the US are projected to drop to $420 billion, marking the largest decline since 1994, while imports from the US will be around $139.7 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of $280 billion with the US [1][3] - The decrease in trade with the US has been offset by increased trade with other regions, particularly ASEAN and the EU, which have become major trade partners for China [3][4] Trade Surplus Analysis - In 2025, ASEAN is expected to become China's largest trading partner with a total trade volume of $1.05 trillion, while the EU will follow closely with $828.1 billion, collectively accounting for 32.3% of China's total exports [4] - Trade surpluses with emerging markets such as Vietnam, India, the Netherlands, and Mexico are projected to exceed $200 billion each, indicating a shift in trade dynamics [4] - China's trade surplus with the US is now only 23.5% of its total trade surplus, highlighting a diversification in trade relationships [1][3] Profitability Concerns - Despite record trade surpluses, profits for large industrial enterprises in China grew by only 0.1% in the first eleven months of 2025, indicating that increased sales do not necessarily translate to higher profits [6] - The competitive environment, particularly with ASEAN and Southeast Asia, has intensified, leading to price pressures that affect profitability [6] - The disconnect between macroeconomic growth and individual consumer experiences suggests that while trade volumes are high, the benefits are not being felt at the consumer level [6] Indirect Trade Relationships - China's trade surplus is indirectly supported by its relationships with countries like Vietnam and Mexico, which benefit from trade with the US, thus contributing to China's overall trade surplus [12] - The concept of indirect trade suggests that while direct trade with the US has decreased, the overall impact on China's trade surplus remains positive due to these indirect channels [12]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Trade Representative, Greer, proposed a new round of U.S.-China trade talks before Trump's planned visit to China in April, focusing on non-sensitive trade areas to build consensus [1][10]. Group 1: Trade Negotiations - Greer suggested that the next round of U.S.-China trade negotiations could temporarily avoid highly sensitive topics such as technology competition and China's critical role in global industrial supply chains, particularly in rare earth magnets [3][13]. - He emphasized the importance of discussing cooperation in basic goods and services rather than getting stuck in sensitive areas like export controls and national security [3][13]. Group 2: Current Trade Relations - Following the U.S.-China summit in Busan last year, both countries agreed to a phase of "truce" in trade disputes, extending certain tariff exclusions, indicating a stabilization in U.S.-China relations [3][13]. - Greer stated that the U.S. policy towards China has not been put on hold, and regular export control measures will continue to be enforced [3][13]. Group 3: Rare Earth Supply Issues - Greer acknowledged that after China "interrupted" several rare earth supplies, the Trump administration had to seek dialogue with China to explore measures for restoring normal supply [4][14]. - The U.S. Commerce Secretary, Becerra, claimed that tariffs have compelled China to negotiate and delayed certain rare earth export controls by a year, highlighting the effectiveness of U.S. trade policy [8][17]. Group 4: Agricultural Trade - Becerra suggested that China could increase its purchases of U.S. soybeans, as this topic frequently arises in discussions between Trump and Chinese leaders [8][17]. - The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson noted that the past year has seen ups and downs in U.S.-China relations, but overall stability aligns with the interests of both nations and the international community [9][17].

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Besant, stated that China has fulfilled its commitments regarding the purchase of U.S. soybeans and the supply of rare earths, with a satisfaction level regarding the progress of rare earth supply at over 90% [1][3] - China is expected to purchase 25 million tons of U.S. soybeans in the upcoming year, having completed its annual soybean procurement task [3][4] - Despite the positive outlook from U.S. officials, American farmers express concerns about the actual shipments of agricultural products, noting a significant increase in China's purchases from Brazil and Argentina [4][5] Group 2 - The U.S. has indicated that China agreed to purchase 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans by January 2026, with a commitment to at least 25 million tons annually over the next three years [4] - The trade relationship between the U.S. and China appears to be improving, as indicated by recent discussions between U.S. and Chinese officials at the World Economic Forum [4] - The agricultural sector's performance is critical for U.S. political dynamics, particularly for President Trump's strategy to secure votes from farmers [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the 2025/26 season, the global cotton supply - demand is basically balanced but shows an overall pattern of oversupply, with main supply growth points in China and Brazil, a decline in Australian output, and a significant reduction in Chinese consumption. The inventory - to - consumption ratio remains the same as last year [1]. - The U.S. cotton has had two consecutive years of bumper harvests, leading to a loose supply - demand situation in the international cotton market and putting downward pressure on ICE cotton prices. Vietnam has become the largest importer of U.S. cotton this year, and U.S. cotton faces great export pressure due to the deteriorating global trade environment [1]. - In the 2025/26 season, China's cotton market continues to have a loose supply - demand pattern. Benefiting from the release of Xinjiang's production capacity, the surplus cotton inventory in the market has been digested, but downstream orders have not improved substantially, squeezing textile enterprises' profits. The situation is unlikely to change in 2026, and attention should be paid to policies to boost consumption and their impact on commodity prices [1]. - China's cotton imports have shifted to Brazil and Australia. Brazil's cotton output has been hitting new highs, while Australia's output has been on a declining trend in recent years. The similar weather conditions in the two southern - hemisphere countries have increased supply uncertainty [2]. - In 2026, as the gap in planting income between cotton and corn/soybeans widens and China's cotton target - price subsidy policy is to be adjusted, the planting area may be adjusted, which will support cotton prices in the long - term. The price upward drive may be stronger than the downward pressure, and attention should be paid to supply - side changes in the first half of the year and policy price regulation [3]. Summary of Each Section 1. Market Review - In 2025, the Zhengzhou cotton futures showed a bottom - oscillating trend. From January to April, the price oscillated downward due to factors such as the market's over - heating correction, low inventory levels, consumption off - season, and Sino - U.S. trade frictions [10]. - From May to August, the cotton price rose as Sino - U.S. trade talks led to a reduction in tariff rates, and China's textile and clothing exports increased, along with a decline in industrial and commercial inventories [10]. - From September to October, the cotton price peaked and declined because of issues such as high delivery premiums and a high - opening - low - going new - cotton purchase price [11]. - From November to December, the cotton price rose again as Sino - U.S. trade negotiations made progress, tariffs were cancelled or postponed, and there were positive expectations for supply and demand [11]. 2. Supply - Demand Structure Analysis (1) Global - In the 2025/26 season, global cotton output increased slightly, consumption decreased slightly, and the supply - demand structure remained basically balanced. The main supply growth points were in China and Brazil, with a decline in Australian output, and the main consumption growth point was in Pakistan, but it could not offset the significant reduction in Chinese consumption [14]. - According to the USDA's December supply - demand report, the global cotton output in 2025/26 was 26.1142 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.43%. Consumption was 25.857 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.27%. The ending inventory was 16.1615 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.82%, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio remained the same as last year [14]. - The gap in planting income between cotton and corn/soybeans has been widening, and the substitution effect may continue, so global cotton output may be adjusted in the future [15]. (2) U.S. Cotton - In the 2025/26 season, U.S. cotton had a bumper harvest for the second consecutive year, leading to a loose international supply - demand situation and putting downward pressure on ICE cotton prices. The output was 3.1109 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1%, and the export was estimated to be 2.659 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.52% [21]. - Affected by Sino - U.S. trade tensions, China's imports of U.S. cotton continued to decline. Vietnam became the largest importer of U.S. cotton this year. As of December 11, 2025, China had signed contracts for 60,000 tons of U.S. cotton, less than half of last year, while Vietnam had signed contracts for 430,000 tons [23]. - As of December 12, the U.S. cotton export and signing progress was slightly slower than last year, but the shipment - to - signing ratio increased by 9.46 percentage points to 41.16% [23]. (3) Brazil and Australia - In the 2025/26 season, Brazil's cotton output was expected to be 4.0875 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.29%, with an export of 3.161 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.36%. Australia's output was expected to be 981,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.64%, and the export was expected to be 1.1118 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.39% [28]. - Brazil's increasing output has increased supply liquidity and pressured import prices. Australia's output has been fluctuating and declining in recent years. The similar weather in the two southern - hemisphere countries has increased supply uncertainty [28]. (4) China - In the 2025/26 season, China's cotton output was expected to reach a record high of 7.303 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.69%, consumption was expected to be 8.393 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.28%, and imports were expected to be 1.1772 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.15% [32]. - China's state reserve has not carried out cotton rotation this year, and the domestic cotton inventory in the state reserve is estimated to be only 201,000 tons, at a relatively low level [32]. - China's cotton textile industry's PMI index has been hovering around the boom - bust line, indicating poor industry prosperity. The textile enterprises' operating rate is low, and the industry's profit is poor throughout the year [32]. - China's cotton market continued to have a loose supply - demand pattern in 2025/26. Although Xinjiang's production capacity has digested the surplus inventory, downstream orders have not improved, and it is difficult to change the situation in 2026 [33]. 3. Industry Operation Status (1) Seed - Cotton Cost, Production Enthusiasm, and Imports - In 2025, the cost of seed - cotton converted to lint was around 14,800 yuan/ton. China's cotton imports were only 900,000 tons this year, mainly from Brazil and Australia, and the proportion of U.S. cotton imports further decreased [37]. - Due to poor industry profits, the production enthusiasm of yarn and fabric enterprises was low, but the new production capacity in Xinjiang prevented a sharp increase in inventory [37]. - The current situation of low industry profits, high inventory, and low operating rates may continue [38]. (2) Domestic Demand and Export Trade - In 2025, domestic consumption was strong, with the cumulative retail sales of clothing and textile products increasing year - on - year, but export trade deteriorated, with the export of clothing and textile products decreasing year - on - year [41]. - In 2026, the international trade environment is more complex. Although the Sino - U.S. agreement to cancel a 24% tariff provides a short - term calm period, textile and clothing exports still face many difficulties [41]. 4. Future Outlook - In recent years, global cotton supply - demand has been stable but lackluster. In 2025, the supply - demand was basically balanced, and cotton prices were at a low level. In 2026, the planting area may be adjusted, which will support cotton prices in the long - term, and the market's long - short game may intensify from January to April [45]. - China's cotton textile industry has been shifting to Xinjiang, and the new production capacity in Xinjiang in 2026 will help stabilize cotton demand. Although the export of textile and clothing products will still face pressure, the short - term tariff suspension between China and the U.S. is conducive to the recovery of foreign trade [45]. - Overall, cotton prices are at a historical low, increasing price volatility. In 2026, the upward price drive may be stronger than the downward pressure, and attention should be paid to supply - side changes in the first half of the year and policy price regulation [46].

Group 1 - The U.S. Department of Commerce has quietly withdrawn a proposal to restrict the import of Chinese-made drones, which was initially announced in September last year under the premise of information and communication technology supply chain security [1] - The proposal was submitted for White House review on October 8 last year and was officially withdrawn on January 8 this year, following discussions between the White House and the Department of Commerce that continued until mid-December [1] - The withdrawal of the drone restriction coincides with President Trump's planned visit to China this year, indicating a potential diplomatic consideration behind the decision [1] Group 2 - Concurrently, the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) announced on January 7 that certain foreign-made drones and key components would be exempt from a comprehensive import ban that was implemented in December, with exemptions valid until the end of 2026 [2] - The exempted products primarily come from companies in France and Switzerland, while key components include those from Nvidia, Sony, and Samsung [2] - The FCC's December 22 decision to list all foreign-made new drones and key components as "regulated" raised concerns among various U.S. domestic groups, particularly regarding the economic burden on farmers who lack domestic alternatives [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, the bearish expectations of the rapeseed meal sector suppress the market, while soybean meal awaits guidance from the USDA report. There may be a turnaround in China - Canada trade, and the bearish sentiment for rapeseed meal continues. - In the medium - to - long - term, the overall upside potential is limited under the global supply - abundant fundamental situation [34][35]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Main Feed and Aquaculture Futures and Spot Price Trends - The closing price of the soybean meal futures main contract (M2605) on January 8, 2026, was 2782, up 33 from December 31, 2025, with a weekly increase of 1.20%. The spot price was 3110, up 50 from the previous week, with a weekly increase of 1.63%. - The closing price of the rapeseed meal futures main contract (RM605) on January 8, 2026, was 2358, down 7 from December 31, 2025, with a weekly decrease of 0.30%. The spot price was 2540, up 10 from the previous week, with a weekly increase of 0.40%. - The closing price of the corn futures main contract (C2603) on January 8, 2026, was 2266, up 40 from December 31, 2025, with a weekly increase of 1.80%. The spot price was 2310, down 10 from the previous week, with a weekly decrease of 0.43%. - The closing price of the live hog futures main contract (LH2603) on January 8, 2026, was 11720, down 75 from December 31, 2025, with a weekly decrease of 0.64%. The spot price was 12.85, down 0.33 from the previous week, with a weekly decrease of 2.50%. - The closing price of the egg futures main contract (JD2603) on January 8, 2026, was 3009, up 47 from December 31, 2025, with a weekly increase of 1.59%. The spot price was 3.23, up 0.23 from the previous week, with a weekly increase of 7.67% [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Cost Side - Weather: Recent rainfall in central Brazil is beneficial for soybean pod - setting, and the precipitation coverage will improve next week. - US Soybeans: As of the week ending January 1, 2026, the net sales volume of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 877,900 tons, a 26% decrease from the previous week and a 42% decrease from the four - week average. The export sales volume so far this season is 29% lower than the same period in 2025, while the USDA predicts an annual decline of 13%. The net sales volume of US soybeans to China (mainland only) in the 2025/26 season in that week was 470,000 tons, higher than 396,000 tons a week ago. The total sales volume of US soybeans to China so far in the 2025/26 season is 6.893 million tons, a 63.8% decrease from 19.036 million tons in the same period in 2025, and a 66.0% decrease a week ago. - Brazil: Brazilian soybean traders expect to export 77 million tons of soybeans to China in 2026, a decrease of 1 million tons from 2025. US soybean sales to China will weaken the demand for Brazilian soybeans to some extent. - Argentina: As of January 8, 2026, the soybean planting rate in the 2025/26 season in Argentina was 92%, up from 86% last week and compared with 96% in the same period in 2025 [10]. 3.2.2 Supply - Import: In November, China did not import soybeans from the US for the third consecutive month and turned to South America for supply. The total soybean import volume in November was 8.11 million tons, of which 5.85 million tons were from Brazil, a 48.5% year - on - year increase, accounting for 72% of the total import volume in that month; the export volume to China from another source soared to 1.78 million tons, a more than six - fold year - on - year increase, accounting for nearly 22% [10]. 3.2.3 Demand - Pressing: In December 2025, the soybean pressing volume of domestic oil mills remained high, about 9.05 million tons for the whole month, and soybean meal was continuously accumulating inventory. The import volume of soybeans in January decreased, and it is expected that the soybean pressing volume will decrease slightly to about 8 million tons, with a soybean meal output of about 6.4 million tons. - Transaction: On January 8, the spot market prices of soybean meal in China showed mixed trends. The total transaction volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was 351,800 tons [10]. 3.2.4 Inventory - As of the end of the first week of 2026, the total inventory of imported soybeans in China was 6.876 million tons, an increase of 29,000 tons from the previous week; the inventory of domestic soybean meal was 1.135 million tons, a decrease of 41,000 tons from the previous week, a 3.52% month - on - month decrease; the contract volume was 6.376 million tons, an increase of 1.69 million tons from the previous week, a 36.09% month - on - month increase [10]. 3.3 Supply Side - Import - As of January 8, the CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans was 451.00 US dollars per ton, an increase of 8 US dollars per ton from the previous week. The CNF import price of US West Coast soybeans was 472.00 US dollars per ton, the same as the previous week [14]. 3.4 Supply Side - Pressing - As of the week ending January 8, the soybean pressing profit was - 6.70 yuan per ton, a recovery of 54.45 yuan per ton from the previous week. - As of the week ending January 2, the weekly soybean pressing volume of domestic oil mills was 1.9838 million tons, an increase of 201,600 tons from the previous week. - As of January 2, the operating rate of domestic soybean oil mills was 50%, a 5 - percentage - point recovery from the previous week [19]. 3.5 Inventory Side - As of January 9, the port inventory of imported soybeans was 8.3396 million tons, a recovery of 54,000 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the soybean port inventory is at a very high level in the past 5 years. - As of January 2, the oil mill's soybean meal inventory was 1.0505 million tons, a decrease of 51,500 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the soybean meal inventory of domestic mainstream oil mills is at a very high level in the past 5 years [21]. 3.6 Demand Side - As of January 2, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in domestic mainstream oil mills was 139,900 tons, the same as the previous week. Seasonally, it is at a relatively high level in the past 5 years [25]. 3.7 Rapeseed Meal Supply Side The report presents data on rapeseed import volume from different countries to China, rapeseed meal production in China on different time scales (annual, monthly, weekly), and the expected arrival volume of rapeseed at domestic pressing plants [29]. 3.8 Rapeseed Meal Demand and Inventory Side The report shows data on rapeseed meal's initial inventory, supply, demand, and consumption in China, as well as the inventory and trading volume of rapeseed meal in different regions [32]. 3.9 Strategy Recommendation - **Soybean Meal**: Since the easing of China - US relations, China's purchasing progress affects the trend of US soybeans. Due to the lack of a formal trade agreement between China and the US, there are still doubts about the subsequent purchasing rhythm, and the uncertainty suppresses the price of US soybeans. In South America, the good weather in Brazil indicates a bumper harvest, which also puts pressure on US soybeans. In China, as the festival approaches, the rigid demand for soybean meal from feed and aquaculture enterprises increases. Coupled with the reduction of soybean pressing after the New Year's Day holiday, the output of soybean meal decreases, supporting the continuous small - scale upward trend of the spot price of soybean meal. The average spot trading price of soybean meal in oil mills has risen to the highest level in 8 months. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The upcoming visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China may put pressure on the price of rapeseed, causing fluctuations in the domestic rapeseed market sentiment. Currently, domestic pressing enterprises have completely shut down, and the spot supply is in short supply. Traders have a strong willingness to hold prices, and the spot price of rapeseed meal remains stable overall. The crushing progress of imported Australian rapeseed is slow, and the inventory of rapeseed products in coastal oil mills remains low. The unit - protein price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal shows that rapeseed meal is not cost - effective, and the demand is mediocre. The focus of the rapeseed market is still on the import side, and attention should be paid to news - related disturbances [34].