Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the U.S. soybean market is expected to face declining production and exports by 2026 due to ongoing U.S.-China trade uncertainties, while Brazil is likely to benefit from increased demand from China [1][2] - The U.S. soybean production for the 2025/26 season is projected to be 115.75 million tons, a decrease of 2.8% year-on-year, with export volumes expected to drop by 13.1% to 44.5 million tons [1][2] - The U.S. soybean export forecast reflects the complex trade realities, with actual trade volumes not recovering to previous levels despite some resumption of purchases by China [1][2] Group 2 - The U.S. government announced a $12 billion aid plan to alleviate farmer pressure, but traders believe this will only provide limited relief, with subsidies of about $31 per acre failing to address fundamental issues [2] - In contrast, Brazil is projected to achieve record soybean production of 177.1 million tons for the 2025/26 season, benefiting from expanded planting areas and favorable weather conditions [2][3] - Brazil's soybean exports are expected to reach a record 112 million tons in 2026, a 4.7% increase year-on-year, further solidifying its position as a key supplier to China [2][3] Group 3 - China's soybean import strategy is reshaping global trade dynamics, maintaining a differentiated tariff structure that favors Brazilian soybeans over U.S. soybeans [3][4] - As of mid-December, China had only purchased 3.25 million tons of U.S. soybeans for the 2025/26 season, indicating a cautious approach to replenishing U.S. soybean stocks [4] - The article suggests that the global soybean trade may undergo structural changes by 2026, with the U.S. facing challenges while Brazil consolidates its position as China's largest supplier [4]

更多最新消息： 美国结束上届政府针对中国芯片贸易调查，未来18个月不对中国芯片加征额外关税；泽连斯基：乌 克兰希望明确加入欧盟的具体时间；12省份旅游总收入破万亿，今年还有2省份在冲击丨早报 据环球网，美国政府23日宣布，将在2027年对中国芯片加征关税，结束了上届拜登政府发起的针对 中国芯片的贸易调查。美媒分析称，尽管美国政府称中国在芯片产业中的做法"损害美国利益"，但 最终决定至少在18个月内不对中国芯片加征额外关税。彭博社说，暂缓加征新关税是美国政府寻求 巩固中美"休战"协议、稳定中美关系的最新信号。 ...

责任编辑：王珂 据环球时报，美国政府23日宣布，将在2027年对中国芯片加征关税，结束了上届拜登政府发起的针对中 国芯片的贸易调查。 美媒分析称，尽管美国政府称中国在芯片产业中的做法"损害美国利益"，但最终决定至少在18个月内不 对中国芯片加征额外关税。 美媒分析称，尽管美国政府称中国在芯片产业中的做法"损害美国利益"，但最终决定至少在18个月内不 对中国芯片加征额外关税。 彭博社说，暂缓加征新关税是美国政府寻求巩固中美"休战"协议、稳定中美关系的最新信号。 据环球时报，美国政府23日宣布，将在2027年对中国芯片加征关税，结束了上届拜登政府发起的针对中 国芯片的贸易调查。 彭博社说，暂缓加征新关税是美国政府寻求巩固中美"休战"协议、稳定中美关系的最新信号。 责任编辑：王珂 ...

据环球时报，美国政府23日宣布，将在2027年对中国芯片加征关税， 结束了上届拜登政府发起的针对中国芯片的贸易调查。 美媒分析称，尽管美国政府称中国在芯片产业中的做法"损害美国利益"， 但最终决定至少在18个月内不对中国芯片加征额外关税。 彭博社说，暂缓加征新关税是美国政府寻求巩固中美"休战"协议、稳定中美关系的最新信号。 ...

我们敦促美方尽快纠正错误做法，以两国元首达成的重要共识为引领，在平等、尊重、互惠的基础上， 通过对话解决各自关切，妥善管控分歧，维护中美关系稳定、健康、可持续发展。如果美方一意孤行， 中方必将坚决采取相应措施，维护自身正当权益。 林剑：中方坚决反对美方滥施关税，无理打压中国产业。美方的做法扰乱全球产供链稳定，阻碍各国半 导体产业发展，损人害己。 中国外交部发言人林剑24日主持例行记者会。有记者就美国拟自2027年起对中国半导体产业征收关税提 问。 (责任编辑：朱赫) ...

农产品事业部 大豆、双粕年度报告 2026 ANNUAL REPORT 弘业期货 2026 大豆、双粕年度报告 弘业期货 2026 大豆、双粕年度报告 农产品事业部 大豆、双粕年报：国际环境多变，豆系走势分化 摘要： 供应方面：国内种植结构调整接近完成，大豆种植面积逐渐趋稳，大 豆单产水平增长放缓，大豆产量持续增加。新豆销售较快，但品质分化， 东北高蛋白豆受欢迎。进口大豆持续创纪录，尽管此前中美贸易摩擦，进 口美豆暂停，但南美取代替位，贸易和谈后进口美豆或恢复常态。从全球 供需来看，美豆播种面积相对稳定，新季度产量下降，出口下降，但其压 榨增加，期末库存止升转降；南美巴西大豆产量及出口均持续增加，阿根 廷降税等措施促进其大豆出口，弱拉尼娜预期对南美新季大豆产量预计影 响有限；全球大豆期末库存仍在高位。 需求方面：国内油厂大豆库存充足，且明年 1 季度美豆补充，油厂开 机率高于去年，豆粕产量高，豆粕库存较高；压榨需求或好于预期。下游 畜禽高存栏支撑豆粕饲料需求，但养殖长期大幅亏损或加速后期去产能步 伐，且政策上饲料豆粕使用减量、替代，饲企对豆粕需求并不迫切。 技术方面：豆系均处于熊市底部，但豆一有企稳迹象，豆粕 ...

Group 1 - After Trump's strong trade policies towards China, the U.S. soybean market faced significant turmoil, with prices dropping and farmers in the Midwest under pressure due to China's halt in soybean purchases [1] - China shifted its soybean purchases to South America, leading to a sharp decline in U.S. soybean exports, while the EU and Japan criticized China's trade practices and sought to persuade the U.S. for multilateral sanctions [1] - A temporary agreement was reached in late October, where China committed to purchasing 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans, and the U.S. temporarily suspended some tariffs [3] Group 2 - By November, China began placing large orders, resulting in a recovery of U.S. soybean exports, and Trump extended tariff exemptions in exchange for further soybean purchases from China [5] - Despite dissatisfaction from allies regarding unilateral actions, the U.S. maintained that China's reliability as a major commodity buyer was crucial for global supply chains [5] - By early December, China's procurement had reached half of the agreed target, stabilizing the U.S. soybean market and leading to a slight price increase [6]

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货豆菜粕年报 南美大豆大概率增产 豆菜粕或宽幅震荡为主 20251215 邓丹 交易咨询号：Z0011401 从业资格号：F0300922 0769-22111252 审核：姜世东 从业资格号：F03126164 交易咨询号：Z0020059 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 年度观点及策略 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 基本面观点 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 ◆ 供给端，预计2026年南美大豆大概率增产，但仍要关注拉尼娜对巴西南部和阿根廷的影响。美豆25/26年度的 库销比仍处于历史低位，支撑美豆价格，且美豆单产和出口仍有调整的可能，预计美豆价 ...

豆类市场2026年年报 豆类：云涛暗涌千帆竞 仓廪星移四季风 ——2025年豆类市场回顾与2026年展望 方正中期期货研究院 农产品团队 王亮亮 Z0017427 摘要： 国际市场来看，2025/26 年度，新季美豆播种面积同比大幅下调，按照美豆优良 率与生长季天气来看，1 月继续下调单产的可能性较高，我们预计新季美豆产量或同 比下降 300-500 万吨左右。美国大豆需求主要是压榨与出口消费。近年来美豆压榨 消费表现强劲，后续主要变数在于其生柴政策的调整，而生柴政策的调整很大程度 上受国际柴油价格与大豆出口情况影响。受美国贸易保护主义影响，我国进一步加 强了巴西大豆的进口、弱化了美国大豆的进口。2025 年四季度，中美元首会晤使得 中美贸易关系似乎有所缓和，但对美豆仍然保留了 10%的加征关税，商业进口利润 依旧为深度负值，这也限制了市场层面对于美豆的采购量，意味着中美贸易关系虽 有缓和但仍严峻，我国能否持续对美豆采购直接影响着CBOT大豆期价的上行高度。 总体而言，受新季美豆产量同比下降与成本端的支撑，CBOT 大豆下方空间预计不大， 支撑位或许在 1000-1050 美分/蒲。如果美豆对华出口顺利，那么 ...

Group 1 - The domestic soybean meal market is currently experiencing a complex interplay of bullish and bearish factors, with tight U.S. soybean supply but a generally loose global soybean supply [2] - The USDA has lowered U.S. soybean yield, production, and ending stocks, with the stocks-to-use ratio dropping to a three-year low of 6.74%, despite some recovery in Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans [2] - Global soybean inventory is projected to decrease to 122 million tons for the 2025/2026 season, but this still represents a year-on-year increase of 1.1%, indicating a shift from accumulation to moderate destocking [2] Group 2 - The La Niña phenomenon may introduce complexities for South American soybean growth, with Brazil's soybean planting progress lagging behind last year, yet yield forecasts remain high [3] - Argentina's soybean planting is significantly delayed due to flooding, and if adverse weather persists into December, the estimated production of 48.5 million tons may face downward revision [3] Group 3 - China's port soybean inventory remains high, with a year-on-year increase of 292.95 million tons, reaching 9.425 million tons as of November 21 [4] - Market expectations indicate that China will import 8 million tons and 7.5 million tons of soybeans in November and December, respectively, with total imports expected to exceed 110 million tons in 2025 [4] - Even without U.S. soybean imports, domestic soybean supply is expected to remain ample through the fourth quarter due to high inventory levels [4] Group 4 - Domestic oil mills are operating at high capacity, with weekly soybean crushing volumes around 2.3 million tons, leading to a significant increase in soybean meal inventory [5] - As of November 21, soybean meal inventory reached 1.1515 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 38.11 million tons, reflecting a 49.47% rise [5] - Despite stable demand from livestock and poultry, cautious purchasing behavior from feed companies limits the growth of soybean meal consumption [5] Group 5 - The cost of imported soybeans is providing strong support for soybean meal prices, with high premiums for Brazilian soybeans and a rebound in U.S. soybean futures prices [6] - The overall global soybean supply remains loose, but high import costs are limiting the downside potential for soybean meal prices [6] - Future price movements will depend on South American weather conditions and developments in U.S.-China trade relations [6]