在线上的出 2026 年 01 月 05 日 相关研究 券研究报 证券分析师 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 研究支持 朱珺逸 A0230521080004 zhujy@swsresearch.com 胡静航 A0230524090002 hujh@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱珺逸 A0230521080004 zhujy@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 元旦猪价反弹后回落,关注牛肉进口国别配额 及配额外关税落地 — 农林牧渔周观点（2025.12.29-2026.01.04） 本期投资提示: 0 本周申万农林牧渔指数上涨 0.1%，沪深 300 下跌 0.6%。个股涨幅前五名：华绿生物（6.5%） 牧原股份（5.5%） 神农集团（4.2%） 平潭发展（3.8%） 大湖股份（3.5%） 跌幅前五名：国 投中鲁 (-10.8%)、罗牛山 (-9.6%)、*ST 正邦 (-9.0%)、神农科技 (-7.7%)、国联水产 (- 7.0%)。 0 投资分析意见：行业亏损加剧，产能加速去化逐步开启，重点推荐左侧布局生猪养殖板块。 ...

行 业 及 产 业 农林牧渔 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证券分析师 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 研究支持 朱珺逸 A0230521080004 zhujy@swsresearch.com 胡静航 A0230524090002 hujh@swsresearch.com 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 联系人 朱珺逸 A0230521080004 zhujy@swsresearch.com 2026 年 01 月 05 日 元旦猪价反弹后回落，关注牛肉进口国别配额 及配额外关税落地 - ⚫ 本周申万农林牧渔指数上涨 0.1%，沪深 300 下跌 0.6%。个股涨幅前五名：华绿生物（6.5%）、 牧原股份（5.5%）、神农集团（4.2%）、平潭发展（3.8%）、大湖股份（3.5%），跌幅前五名：国 投中鲁（-10.8%）、罗牛山（-9.6%）、*ST 正邦（-9.0%）、神农科技（-7.7%）、国联水产（- 7.0%）。 ⚫ 投资分析意见：行业亏损加剧，产能加速去化逐步开启，重点推荐左侧布局生猪养殖板块。元旦前 猪价明显反弹，主因年末二育再次进场 ...

Group 1: Overall Market Situation - The performance of overseas markets was strong during the holiday, but the geopolitical situation change on Saturday increased the uncertainty of the post - holiday risk - asset trend. Short - term attention should be paid to the impact of overseas events on the risk appetite of domestic equity assets [1] Group 2: Fixed - Income Market - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1] Group 3: Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - The industrial situation is weak recently, but the macro sentiment is positive, and the premium of US copper persists, so the copper price has further increased. However, there is a short - term adjustment risk, though the trend is expected to remain unchanged [1] Aluminum - Domestic electrolytic aluminum has accumulated inventory recently, and the industrial driving force is limited. But with positive macro sentiment and the early fermentation of the expected tight supply of aluminum ingots, the aluminum price is expected to remain strong [1] Alumina - The supply side of alumina still has a large release space, and the weak industry pressures the price. But the current price is basically near the cost line, so the price is expected to fluctuate [1] Zinc - The fundamentals of zinc have improved, the cost center has shifted up, and recent negative factors have basically materialized. Market sentiment is volatile, and the zinc price fluctuates [1] Nickel - The macro sentiment has warmed up. News about Indonesia has further boosted market concerns about nickel - ore supply. The global nickel - inventory accumulation speed has slowed down, and the Shanghai nickel price has risen significantly recently with increased positions. The short - term nickel price may be strong, and attention should be paid to Indonesia's policies and macro sentiment. Short - term low - buying is recommended, and excessive chasing of highs should be avoided [1] Stainless Steel - The raw - material nickel - iron price has rebounded, the social inventory of stainless steel has slightly decreased, and steel mills' production in January has increased. The short - term stainless - steel futures are expected to be strong and volatile. Short - term low - buying is recommended, and enterprises should wait for opportunities to sell on rallies [1] Tin - The non - ferrous tin industry association issued an initiative to guide the price back to the normal range, pressuring the tin price. Considering the tense situation in Congo - Kinshasa, there may be further fermentation of tin supply. After a short - term adjustment, the downside space is limited, and low - buying opportunities near the support level are recommended [1] Group 4: Precious Metals and New Energy Precious Metals - The geopolitical situation is tense, and precious - metal prices are still supported, but the VIX of Shanghai silver is still high, and there may still be short - term games. In the long run, the logic of precious metals remains unchanged. Based on the fact that silver may no longer be undervalued compared with gold, priority should be given to low - buying gold in the future [1] Platinum and Palladium - During the New Year's Day holiday, the prices of platinum and palladium in the overseas market rose significantly, which is expected to boost domestic prices. But in the short term, they may still have high volatility. In the medium - to - long term, there is a supply - demand gap for platinum, while palladium tends to have a loose supply. Platinum can be bought on dips or a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can be adopted [1] Industrial Silicon - In the northwest, production increases, while in the southwest, it decreases. The production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon decreased in December. A capacity storage platform company has been established, and there is a medium - to - long - term expectation of capacity reduction. Terminal installations increased marginally in the fourth quarter. Large enterprises have a strong willingness to support prices and a low willingness to deliver. Short - term speculative sentiment is high [1] Lithium Carbonate - It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles, and the demand for energy storage is strong. The supply side has increased production resumption, and there is a short - term rapid increase. Rolling profit - taking of long - spot and short - futures positions can be carried out. The basis and production profit are not high, indicating that the price valuation is not high, and short - selling is not recommended [1] Group 5: Steel and Iron - Related Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Rolling profit - taking of long - spot and short - futures positions can be carried out. The basis and production profit are not high, indicating that the price valuation is not high, and short - selling is not recommended [1] Iron Ore - The near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contracts still have upward opportunities [1] Ferrous Metals (General) - There is a combination of weak reality and strong expectation. In reality, direct demand is weak, supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the price is under pressure. In expectation, energy - consumption dual control and anti - involution may disrupt supply [1] Group 6: Building Materials Glass - The supply and demand are supported, the valuation is low, and there are renewed supply disruptions. The price is expected to be strong in the short term [1] Soda Ash - It follows the trend of glass. The supply and demand are acceptable, the valuation is low, the downward space is limited, and it may be under pressure and fluctuate [1] Coking Coal and Coke - The fourth round of spot price cuts has started. After the futures price fell to the level of the fourth - round cut and then rebounded, attention should be paid to whether the futures price can reach a new low during the period from the price - cut announcement to implementation. If the price - cut negative factors cannot drive continuous decline, the futures price is likely to continue to fluctuate widely [1] Group 7: Agricultural Products Palm Oil - The MPOB December data is expected to be negative for palm oil, but it will reverse under themes such as seasonal production cuts, the B50 policy, and US biodiesel. If the oil price gaps up due to geopolitical events, short - selling can be considered [1] Soybean Oil - It follows the trend of other oils in the short term. Waiting for the January USDA report is recommended [1] Rapeseed Oil - Recent news has brought a large rebound to the rapeseed - oil price and the January - May spread, but it is difficult to change the subsequent marginal loosening of the fundamentals. A rebound in sentiment is expected to subside, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [1] Cotton - There is a strong expectation of a domestic new - crop harvest, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream operation rate remains low, but the yarn - mill inventory is not high, and there is a rigid restocking demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver." Future attention should be paid to the tone of the No. 1 Central Document in the first quarter of next year regarding direct - subsidy prices and cotton - planting areas, the intention of next year's cotton - planting area, weather during the planting period, and the peak - season demand from March to April [1] Sugar - Currently, there is a global sugar surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply has increased. The short - selling consensus is relatively consistent. If the futures price continues to fall, the cost support below is strong, but the short - term fundamentals lack continuous drivers. Attention should be paid to changes in the capital side [1] Corn - The progress of grassroots grain sales of corn is relatively fast. Currently, the inventory levels at ports and downstream are still low, and most traders have not started strategic inventory building. It is expected that the spot price will remain strong in the short term under the restocking demand of the middle and lower reaches, and the futures price is expected to have limited回调 and remain strong and fluctuate later [1] Soybean Meal - Attention should be paid to the adjustment of the January USDA report and the manifestation of Brazil's harvest selling pressure on CNF premiums. The M05 contract is expected to be relatively weak. In the first quarter, the concentrated ownership of imported - soybean cargo rights will bring a domestic supply - structure problem, which supports the M03 contract. The M03 - M05 spread is still expected to be in a positive - arbitrage situation in the short term. Attention should be paid to changes in customs policies, imported - soybean auctions, and targeted policies [1] Pulp - Pulp futures have recently been pulled by the "weak demand" reality and the "strong supply" expectation, with large fluctuations. A wait - and - see approach for single - side trading is recommended, and a January - May reverse - arbitrage strategy can be considered for the spread [1] Logs - Log futures have declined due to the decline in overseas quotes and spot prices. The pressure on the 01 contract is large as it approaches the delivery month, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [1] Hogs - The spot price has gradually stabilized recently. Supported by demand and with the unsold weight of slaughtered hogs still remaining, the production capacity still needs to be further released [1] Group 8: Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - There is a risk of oil - price increase due to the conflict between the US and Venezuela. There are fewer maintenance activities, the operating load is high, there are overseas arrivals, and the supply has increased. The downstream demand and operation rate have weakened. In 2026, there will be more new production, further intensifying the supply - demand surplus, and the market expectation is weak [1] Fuel Oil - OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement has an impact, and the US has sanctioned Venezuelan oil exports [1] Asphalt - The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The "14th Five - Year Plan" rush - work demand is likely to be disproven, the supply of Ma - Rui crude oil is sufficient, and the asphalt profit is high [1] Natural Rubber - The raw - material cost has strong support, the basis is at a low level, and the middle - stream inventory may tend to accumulate [1] BR Rubber - The futures positions have decreased, and the price increase has slowed down. The listing prices of BD/BR have shifted up, and the processing profit of butadiene rubber has gradually recovered. Butadiene rubber maintains high - operation and high - inventory operation, and the spot trading has weakened with general order demand [1] PTA - The PX price is strong, and the floating spread has strengthened. The PTA plants generally maintain a high - load operation, and PX consumption remains stable. Polyester pre - holiday stock - building and sales have improved. The new polyester plants' commissioning has pushed the polyester load to a high level, and PTA consumption remains high [1] Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - It is reported that two MEG plants in Taiwan, China, with a total annual capacity of 720,000 tons, plan to shut down next month due to poor efficiency. During the continuous decline of ethylene glycol, it rebounded rapidly due to supply - side news. Currently, the downstream operation rate of polyester remains above 91%, the demand performance slightly exceeds expectations, and the recent overall polyester sales are relatively high [1] Short - Fiber - The short - fiber price continues to closely follow the cost fluctuations [1] Styrene - The Asian styrene price rebounded briefly after continuous monthly declines, mainly driven by supply - side contraction. Many plants have reduced production or shut down due to maintenance or poor economics. The demand for polymer downstream products such as PS and ABS remains weak. The warming of the commodity - market sentiment has significantly boosted the styrene futures price [1] Urea - The export sentiment has eased slightly, and the limited domestic demand restricts the upside space. There is support from anti - involution and the cost side [1] PE - There are fewer maintenance activities, the operating load is high, and the supply pressure is large. The downstream improvement is less than expected. The propylene monomer price is high, the crude - oil price has risen, and the cost support is strong. There is a risk of oil - price increase due to the US - Venezuela conflict [1] PVC - In 2026, there will be less global new production, and the future expectation is optimistic. There will be fewer subsequent maintenance activities, new production capacity will be released, and the supply pressure will increase. The demand has weakened, and orders are poor [1] LPG - The January CP has risen more than expected, providing strong cost - side support for imported gas. The geopolitical conflicts between the US and Venezuela and in the Middle East have intensified, and the short - term risk premium has increased. The EIA weekly C3 inventory has continued to accumulate, and overseas demand has slowed down periodically. Domestic PDH maintains high - operation and deep - loss operation, with only the rigid demand for civil combustion, and there is overseas olefin - blending demand for oil [1] Group 9: Shipping Container Shipping (European Route) - The price increase in December did not meet expectations, the expectation of peak - season price increase was priced in advance, and the shipping capacity supply in December was relatively loose [1]

[Table_Page] 投资策略周报|农林牧渔 证券研究报告 元旦前猪价反弹明显，牛肉进口配额保障政策落地 [TAblE_TitlE] 农林牧渔行业 [TAblE_SummAry] 核心观点： [TAblE_G rADE] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2026-01-04 [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 [分析师： TAblE_Author 钱浩] SAC 执证号：S0260517080014 SFC CE No. BND274 021-38003634 shqianhao@gf.com.cn 分析师： 郑颖欣 SAC 执证号：S0260520070001 021-38003632 zhengyingxin@gf.com.cn 分析师： 高一岑 SAC 执证号：S0260525100002 021-38003780 gaoyicen@gf.com.cn 分析师： 李雅琦 SAC 执证号：S0260524080006 021-68827265 liyaqi@gf.com.cn -4% 4% 11% 19% 26% 34% 01/25 03/25 05/25 08/25 10/25 ...

A-share Market Insights - The market is expected to transition from "consolidation" to "spring rally" as the year-end approaches, with high-quality A-share assets offering attractive value globally [1][2] - Key investment directions include: 1) long-term opportunities in technology growth assets, 2) cyclical sectors with strong pricing power driven by supply-demand imbalances, and 3) blue-chip assets favored by long-term institutional investors [2] Hong Kong Market Insights - The influx of southbound capital is accelerating, providing solid financial support for the Hong Kong market [2] - The easing of US-China trade tensions is likely to boost market risk appetite, while the anticipated December interest rate cut and balance sheet expansion by the Federal Reserve will enhance global liquidity, benefiting Hong Kong stocks [2] US Market Insights - Despite stable earnings projections for US stocks in 2025, valuation and market concentration have returned to historical highs, indicating potential for increased volatility [2] - Earnings growth in 2026 is expected to continue, driven by sustained AI demand, reduced tariff risks, and accommodative monetary and fiscal policies [2] - Investment strategies may focus on two main themes: 1) ongoing narratives in technology stocks, particularly in AI, and 2) recovery opportunities in cyclical sectors, especially in midstream manufacturing and essential consumer goods [2] Domestic Bond Market Insights - The domestic bond market is entering a phase characterized by "weak economic recovery, stable yet easing policies, and central bank caution against excessive moves" [3] - The central bank's commitment to maintaining stable interest rates will limit the downward movement of long-term rates, leading to a range-bound market [3] - Investors are advised to shift focus from capital gains to coupon income and liquidity management, while closely monitoring potential signals from the central bank regarding long-term yield guidance [3] Commodity Market Insights - The ongoing anti-involution policies warrant attention to the actual implementation of capacity reduction measures [4] - Oil prices are under short-term pressure due to geopolitical tensions easing and OPEC+ shifting towards supply expansion [4] - Industrial metals are expected to see demand recovery driven by improved global economic growth forecasts, with supply-side disruptions likely to reshape the supply-demand landscape [4] - Gold's monetary attributes may continue to be favorable amid ongoing government leverage, particularly in the US, where long-term deficit rates are challenging to reduce [4]

中邮证券发布研报称，优然牧业(09858)受益于奶牛存栏持续去化及牛肉价格显著上涨，淘牛利润有望 显著增厚。同时，乳企布局深加工产能有效调节市场供给，有望进一步加速行业产能出清，共同推动 2026年原奶价格复苏。维持"买入"评级。 中邮证券主要观点如下： 奶牛存栏持续出清，26年原奶价格有望复苏 盈利预测与投资建议 头部乳企纷纷布局相关赛道，君乐宝与西诺迪斯合作推出高端稀奶油，伊利、蒙牛聚焦原制奶酪品类发 力，妙可蓝多（600882）持续扩大原制奶酪产能，光明等企业也通过新品迭代丰富深加工矩阵。行业内 多个深加工项目陆续开建或投产，既延伸了产业链价值，又能灵活承接原奶供给，在存栏去化的同时保 障行业稳定发展，推动奶业向高质量转型。 25年牛肉价格开始反转，公司淘牛利润有望增厚 根据iFind，国内牛肉平均批发价从2月份的57元/kg增长至12月份的66元/kg，增幅达到15.79%。为了优 化种群结构适配长期发展，牧场每年会淘汰部分成母牛，淘汰牛的价格与市场牛肉价格有关。在牛肉价 格上行阶段，牧场的淘牛利润有望跟随上涨，该部分收益主要体现在生物资产公允价值的变动中。未来 随着牛肉价格的进一步上涨，该行预计公司 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-12-31 震荡运⾏为主，关注钢⼚复产与下游补 库节奏 国家发展改⾰委、财政部发布关于2026年实施⼤规模设备更新和消 费品以旧换新政策的通知，政策基调仍显积极。钢材淡季延续去库， 基本⾯⽭盾有限，盘⾯震荡运⾏。铁矿⾼库存或将⾯临堆存费征收的 压⼒，盘⾯上涨乏⼒。焦煤交割博弈加剧，盘⾯波动剧烈。玻璃供给 扰动带动玻纯盘⾯价格反弹，但供需过剩压制上⽅空间。 1. 铁元素方面：铁水基本持稳，港口库存持续累积，钢厂少量补 库，上下游博弈较强，短期矿价预计震荡运行。废钢供需双弱，钢厂 库存偏高，补库放缓，废钢现货上涨乏力，华东主导钢企上周末提降 30元/吨，预计现货市场跟跌为主。 2. 碳元素方面：焦炭成本端已有企稳迹象，且进入一月后钢厂有复 产预期，随着中下游冬储补库逐渐开启，焦炭供需结构或将逐渐变 紧，四轮提降落地后现货有望企稳，盘面预计跟随焦煤震荡运行。随 着年关将近，冬储力度逐渐加大，且进入一月后蒙煤进口冲量行为将 有所改善，总体供应压力将得到缓解，焦煤基本面将延续边际改善， 期现价格仍有上涨动力。 3. 合金方面：内蒙 ...

2025 年 12 月 30 日 S0340513040002 电话：0769-22119462 邮箱：whm2@dgzq.com.cn 资料来源：同花顺 iFinD，东莞证券研 究所 超配（维持） 关注产能去化 布局盈利拐点 深 生猪养殖行业深度报告 投资要点： 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 农林牧渔行业 推荐 分析师：魏红梅 SAC 执业证书编号： 我国是全球最大的生猪及猪肉产需国。根据美国农业部2025年4 月份《牲畜和家禽的世界市场和贸易报告》，报告预测2025年全 球生猪产量达到12.88亿头，其中中国生猪产量达到7.05亿头， 占全球生猪总产量的比重为54.7%；2025年全球猪肉产量达到 11668万吨，其中我国猪肉产量5700万吨，占全球猪肉总产量的 比重为48.9%。预计2025年我国猪肉出口100万吨，仅占全球猪 肉出口量的1.0%，仅占我国猪肉产量的0.18%。预计2025年全球 猪肉国内消费总量约为11564.1万吨，其中中国猪肉国内消费量 5820.0万吨，占全球猪 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 冠通期货 骆利关 养殖产业链日报：震荡偏强 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 30 日 大豆：国储 2022 年大豆拍卖为市场增加了供应，但周三发布的新豆收购价 格较 11 月明显上涨，对现货价格形成底部支撑。昨天中储粮大豆抛储 180849 吨，成交 82%，叠加上周四抛储成交超出 90%，表现出春节前需求相对坚挺，这 使得现货和盘面保持偏强走势，不过 需要注意元旦后进口大豆连续抛储后的市 场反应，中期保持宽幅震荡。 玉米：近期国内玉米市场呈现盘整震荡格局，区域走势有所分化。东北市场 方面，随着气温下降储存难度降低，种植户惜售情绪较强，尤其优质玉米因前景 乐观而挺价心态明显；但进口玉米持续拍卖拓宽了供应渠道，叠加中储粮建库进 入尾声，而下游饲料及深加工企业库存充裕，在养殖行业不景气背景下采购积极 性减弱，多以滚动补库为主，购销趋于谨慎。从进口拍卖情况看，尽管拍卖体量 有所增加，但成交率尚可且溢价明显，反映出市场需求依然存在，不过对高价承 接的积极性偏弱。远月方面或存在重心略微抬升，在供应压力过后或存在反弹预 期。 鸡蛋：价格低迷与持续亏损推动行业产能调整，产蛋鸡存栏量出现下滑拐点。 截 ...

中国银河证券主要观点如下： 智通财经APP获悉，中国银河证券发布研报称，持续重点强调生猪养殖行业的攻守兼备布局机会，基于 能繁母猪作用值及养殖效率的考虑，26年猪价同比下行，期间或有所反弹表现;综合考虑政策去产能以 及行业亏损去产能，重点关注成本边际变化显著、资金面良好的优质猪企。宠物食品行业处成长过程 中，优质企业市占率呈提升趋势。此外，可关注养殖链后周期及动物疫苗相关企业。黄羽鸡自身供给端 相对低位，叠加需求端改善预期。 25年12月10日猪价为11.81元/kg，较24年年末下跌27.4%。12月26日自繁自养、外购仔猪养殖利润分别 为-130元/头、-163元/头，行业亏损持续或可带来产能去化加速。10月末我国能繁母猪存栏量3990万 头，环比-1.1%。关于25年猪价走势，该行认为年度均价同比下行，差异在于优秀猪企完全成本持续优 化，带来养殖利润超预期。关于2026年猪价走势，该行认为年度均价层面或呈现同比下行走势，期间受 冬季疫病影响程度的变化，年内猪价或有所反弹表现。该行建议积极关注成本控制行业领先/持续向 好、资金面相对健康、估值合理的猪企。 宠物食品：11月出口量价齐跌，均价创十年新低 11 ...