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中信建投期货:2月25日农产品早报
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-02-25 01:21
热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 玉米:中性 3.连盘豆粕缺乏边际新增信息,短期预计跟随美盘运行,市场继续关注3月国内进口大豆到港节奏与储备拍卖进展。 观点总结:区间交易思路,预计05合约日内运行区间2700-2850元/吨。 鸡蛋:中性偏空 1.盘面表现:昨日玉米05合约收盘于2341元/吨,日涨幅0.21%,为9个月以来新高,盘面资金情绪明显,日增仓超4万3千手。 2.现货与渠道情况:基层玉米收购工作陆续重新启动,但整体提量受复工进度与现货价格影响,或在元宵节之后显化。 3.下游需求:春节后,深加工方面企业开工启动快于基层收购情况,补库需求被强化,鲅鱼圈港等港口报价同步出现5-10元/吨涨幅,哈尔滨/长春等地现货 价格日涨20元/吨;周内预计有超过2万8千吨国储拍卖,上量强度有待下周提振。 4.市场关注&观点总结:目前虽然05走强明显,但在整体库存水平一般,下游利润承压的背景下,深加工企业对提价的接受度较低。且地趴粮话题随着最 近寒潮的推进被延迟弱化,整体判断上方空间有限,不宜追多。后续跟进实际上量情况与港口波动。 豆粕:中性 1.海外市场继续关注中国对美国最高法院推翻特朗 ...
2026年猪价能否迎来周期性反弹?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-02-16 07:37
Core Viewpoint - The overall profitability of the pig industry is expected to decline in 2025 due to fluctuations in the market, with several listed pig companies forecasting significant drops in net profits compared to the previous year [1]. Group 1: Company Performance - Muyuan Foods is expected to report a net profit of 14.7 billion to 15.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.2% to 17.79% year-on-year [1]. - Wens Foodstuff Group anticipates a net profit of 5 billion to 5.5 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 40.73% to 46.12% year-on-year [1]. - New Hope Group forecasts a loss of 1.8 billion to 1.5 billion yuan, compared to a profit of 474 million yuan in the previous year [1]. - Other companies like Tangrenshen and Juxing Agriculture are also expected to see declines in profits from pig farming in 2025 [1]. Group 2: Market Price Trends - In 2025, the price of live pigs (external three yuan) is projected to decrease by approximately 17% compared to 2024, with prices fluctuating from 15-16 yuan/kg at the beginning of the year to 11-12 yuan/kg in the fourth quarter [1]. - The price of live pigs showed a downward trend throughout 2025, starting from 16.1 yuan/kg in early January and reaching a low of 10.9 yuan/kg by mid-October [2]. Group 3: Supply and Production Capacity - The supply of live pigs is expected to remain ample throughout 2025, prompting authorities to emphasize the need for capacity regulation measures, including the reduction of breeding sows and control of pig weights [6]. - As of the end of Q4 2025, the number of breeding sows was reported at 39.61 million, which is 101.6% of the normal holding capacity, indicating a slight decrease in capacity [7]. - The production efficiency in the pig farming industry has significantly improved, with the number of weaned piglets per sow per year (PSY) increasing to around 26, with some leading companies nearing 29 [7]. Group 4: Future Price Outlook - Many institutions predict that the supply side may tighten in the second half of 2026, potentially leading to a cyclical rebound in pig prices [7]. - The pig industry may face pressure in the first half of 2026, but this period could also serve as a favorable window for capacity reduction [8]. - The ongoing market dynamics suggest that while there may be a rebound in prices, the extent of this rebound could be limited if capacity reduction is not thorough [9].
【鸡蛋周报】节前远月预期的抢跑
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-02-13 23:31
热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源:CFC商品策略研究 作者|中信建投期货研究发展部 魏鑫 研究员|中信建投期货研究发展部 邓昊然 本报告完成时间|2026年2月13日 重要提示:本报告观点和信息仅供符合证监会适当性管理规定的期货交易者参考。因本平台暂时无法设 置访问限制,若您并非符合规定的交易者,为控制交易风险,请勿点击查看或使用本报告任何信息。对 由此给您造成的不便表示诚挚歉意,感谢您的理解与配合! 摘要 节前最后两个交易日,鸡蛋期货盘面出现较大幅度反弹,主力合约2604收盘报3251元/500千克,单日大 幅上涨2.20%。从本轮行情表现看,远月合约04、05、06涨幅较大,我们认为盘面上行主要驱动在于: 1)从市场交易情况看,持仓量缩减,反映出资金在节前离场观望的谨慎心态。盘面空头的集中减仓可 能引发较为明显的技术性反弹行情。 2)春节前备货已进入尾声,现货市场成交缩减,多数产区已停止报价。盘面对现实侧的锚定依据缺 失,再度进入预期抢跑交易阶段,部分多头选择提前押注远月行情。 展望后市,由于春节后是传统的消费淡季,叠加目前较高的库存压力,现货价格预计相对弱势。然而, ...
农林牧渔行业双周报(2026、1、30-2026、2、12):关注产能去化进程-20260213
Dongguan Securities· 2026-02-13 07:27
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1][53]. Core Insights - The SW agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry slightly underperformed the CSI 300 index, declining by 2.88% from January 30, 2026, to February 12, 2026, which is approximately 2.16 percentage points lower than the index [7][14]. - Among the sub-sectors, only the fishery sector recorded positive returns, increasing by 0.27%, while feed, breeding, planting, agricultural product processing, and animal health sectors all experienced negative returns, with declines of 1.36%, 2.02%, 4.45%, 4.8%, and 7.3% respectively [15][19]. - The overall price-to-book (PB) ratio for the industry is approximately 2.61 times, reflecting a slight decline in valuation, and is at about 58.7% of the historical average since 2006, indicating a relatively low historical valuation level [22][24]. Industry Important Data - **Pig Farming**: - The average price of the national external three-line pigs fell from 12.52 CNY/kg to 11.57 CNY/kg during the reporting period [25]. - The cost of corn and soybean meal slightly decreased, with corn priced at 2372.16 CNY/ton and soybean meal at 3164 CNY/ton as of February 12, 2026 [27]. - Profitability for self-bred pigs was reported at -98.32 CNY/head, while for purchased piglets, it was 53.1 CNY/head, both showing a decline compared to the previous week [31]. - **Poultry Farming**: - The average price of broiler chicks increased to 2.4 CNY/chick, while the price for layer chicks remained stable at 3.2 CNY/chick as of February 13, 2026 [33]. - The average price for white feather broilers decreased to 7.48 CNY/kg, with profitability reported at -0.2 CNY/chick, indicating a decline from the previous week [36]. Industry News - The report highlights that the breeding capacity of sows is expected to continue decreasing in 2025, leading to a gradual reduction in pig supply and a potential increase in pig prices in 2026, which may improve breeding profitability [53]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the capacity reduction and the expected profitability improvement, particularly for leading companies in pig farming and poultry sectors [53]. Company Highlights - Key companies to watch include: - Muyuan Foods (牧原股份, 002714): A leading pig farming company with cost and scale advantages. - Wens Foodstuff Group (温氏股份, 300498): A major player in both pig and poultry farming with strong cost control. - Haida Group (海大集团, 002311): A leading feed company expected to maintain steady market share growth. - Shengnong Development (圣农发展, 002299): A leader in the white feather broiler industry with a strong supply chain. - Reap Bio (瑞普生物, 300119): A leader in the animal health sector with a growing product matrix for pet health [54].
中信证券:畜禽静待价格拐点 菌菇景气高位
智通财经网· 2026-02-13 01:28
Group 1: Swine Farming - In 2025, pig prices are expected to fluctuate downward, with an average price of 13.73 yuan/kg, a year-on-year decrease of 18.2%, leading to significant declines in the performance of listed companies in the swine sector [1] - Some companies are outperforming the industry with profits of 150-200 yuan per head, while one company has a projected total cost of approximately 11.4 yuan/kg by Q4 2025 [1] - The industry is expected to gradually reduce production capacity in H1 2026, with a potential recovery in pig prices anticipated in H2 2026 and 2027 [1] Group 2: Poultry Farming - The poultry industry has been experiencing low price fluctuations since 2025 due to high production capacity and weak consumer demand, with profits for the year expected to decline [2] - The sales of grandparent and parent stock chicks remain relatively high, which may suppress the price rebound in 2026 [2] - The impact of overseas avian influenza on breeding shortages and consumer recovery will be closely monitored [2] Group 3: Post-Cycle Farming - The feed and animal health industries are experiencing upward trends in 2025 due to recovery in livestock and aquaculture stocks, with many companies achieving high growth [3] - However, growth rates began to slow down from Q3 2025, prompting leading companies to seek breakthroughs through international expansion and new product development [3] - A further slowdown in domestic growth is anticipated in 2026, with recommendations for high-quality feed stocks and leading animal health companies [3] Group 4: Mushroom Industry - The mushroom sector has seen continuous price increases since Q3 2025 due to production capacity exiting the market, with strong performance expected to continue into Q1 2026 [4] - The industry is benefiting from the rising prices of edible mushrooms, particularly under the influence of seasonal demand during the Spring Festival [4] - Recommendations include leading companies that benefit from the rising cycle of enoki mushrooms and those with significant success in developing new product categories [4]
中信证券:畜禽行业静待价格拐点,菌菇行业处于景气高位
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2026-02-13 00:29
Core Viewpoint - In 2025, livestock and poultry prices are expected to experience a downward fluctuation, putting pressure on the performance of most companies in the sector, while leading companies will continue to strengthen their competitive advantages [1] Group 1: Livestock and Poultry Sector - The report indicates that the leading companies in the livestock and poultry sector will maintain their competitive advantages as prices decline [1] - It is anticipated that pig prices will continue to bottom out, with ongoing capacity reduction expected to lead to a recovery in the second half of 2026 and into 2027 [1] - The chicken industry is advised to monitor the progress of avian influenza overseas and the recovery of consumer demand [1] Group 2: Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies with strong cost capabilities in the livestock and poultry sector [1] - In the post-cycle area, companies with strong operational capabilities that can withstand economic cycles are highlighted for investment [1] - Attention is also drawn to the mushroom industry, particularly regarding production cuts and high market conditions [1]
【山证农业】农业行业周报:猪价在旺季后或存回调压力
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-02-11 10:34
Market Overview - The CSI 300 index decreased by 1.33% during the week of February 2-8, while the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector fell by 1.92%, ranking 23rd among sectors [5] - The top-performing sub-industries included food and feed additives, broiler farming, pig farming, aquaculture, and grain and oil processing [5] Pig Farming Industry - Pig prices continued to decline, with self-breeding pig farming profits showing losses. As of February 6, the average prices for external three yuan pigs in Sichuan, Guangdong, and Henan were 11.65, 11.96, and 12.38 yuan/kg, reflecting week-on-week decreases of 4.12%, 1.64%, and 1.98% respectively [13] - The average pork price was 18.34 yuan/kg, down 1.45% from the previous week. The average wholesale price for piglets remained stable at 16.50 yuan/kg [13] - As of February 6, self-breeding farming profits were -38.09 yuan/head, a decrease of 63.19 yuan/head from the previous week, while profits from purchasing piglets were 91.42 yuan/head, down 32.71 yuan/head [13] Feed Industry - The competition in the feed industry has shifted from product competition to value chain competition, leading to accelerated industry consolidation. Market share is increasingly concentrated among leading companies with advantages in R&D, scale, and integrated services [2] - Haida Group is expected to benefit from this trend due to its efficient internal management, effective business incentives, and strong service advantages in the supply chain [2] Broiler Farming Industry - The price of white feather broilers decreased, with a weekly price of 7.53 yuan/kg, down 2.71%. The profit from broiler farming was -0.26 yuan/bird, a significant drop of 166.67% from the previous week [29] - The price of eggs was 8.2 yuan/kg, down 6.82% from the previous week [29] Aquaculture Industry - In the marine product sector, prices for sea cucumbers and shrimp remained stable at 120 yuan/kg and 320 yuan/kg respectively. In freshwater products, prices for various fish showed slight increases [45] - The international spot price for fish meal was 2239.77 USD/ton, unchanged from the previous week [45] Grain and Oil Processing - Grain prices showed mixed trends. As of February 6, corn was priced at 2368.43 yuan/ton (-0.33%), soybeans at 4072.11 yuan/ton (unchanged), and wheat at 2531.11 yuan/ton (+0.05%) [55] - The price of soybean meal was 3159.14 yuan/ton, down 1.19%, while the prices for both soybean oil and rapeseed oil decreased by 1.72% and 1.95% respectively [55]
生猪期货日报-20260211
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2026-02-11 07:02
2026 年 2 月 9 日,全国生猪平均价为 12.34 元/公斤,较 2 月 6 日 12.05 元/公斤小幅回升, 但较 1 月 29 日 13.43 元/公斤仍下降 8.5%。 主要产区价格:湖南 12.34 元/公斤、湖北 12.45 元/公斤、 吉林 12.48 元/公斤、河南 12.30 元/公斤,华北与华东价差维持在 50-80 元/吨区间。猪肉批发均价为 18.34 元/公斤,与前日持平,终 端消费未现明显回暖。 3 影响因素 成文日期:20260209 报告周期:日报 研究品种:生祥 研究员:游镇齐(从业资格号:F3012673; 投资咨询从业证书号:Z0012990) 生猪期货日报 1 期货市场 生猪期货主力合约 LH2605 收盘价 11,565 元/吨,较前一交易 日下跌 80 元/吨(-0.69%),日最高价 11,605 元/吨,最低价 11,415 元/吨,结算价 11,525 元/吨,成交量 70,539 手。 1:生猪主力合约分时图 数据来源:wh6,国金期货研究所 2 现货市场 下行压力:2 月中下旬集中出栏潮再现、远月合约贴水扩大、 终端消费持续疲软。 风险揭示及免责声 ...
大连商品交易所农产品日报-20260211
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2026-02-11 05:14
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Corn**: The price of corn futures stopped falling and rose on Tuesday due to the increase in soybean prices. Before the Spring Festival, the trading activity in the corn market was low, with prices remaining stable in the Northeast. The price of corn in the selling area adjusted slightly. Before the Spring Festival, the corn price will maintain a narrow - range shock pattern, with a low possibility of significant fluctuations. The view is "oscillating weakly" [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: On Tuesday, CBOT soybeans closed higher, and soybean oil futures reached a new high. The February supply - demand report was bearish, but the market was optimistic about the demand for US soybean oil after the US - India agreement. In the domestic market, soybean meal was mainly oscillating, with light trading. The view is "oscillating" [1]. - **Oils and Fats**: On Tuesday, BMD palm oil fell, following the decline in the surrounding market. The MPOB report was bullish, but the high - frequency data showed a decline in palm oil exports in February. In the domestic market, the oils and fats market was divided, with palm oil being weak. The view is "oscillating" [1]. - **Eggs**: On Tuesday, egg futures oscillated. The spot price of eggs continued to decline, and the futures price stabilized after falling to a low level. The view is "oscillating" [1]. - **Pigs**: On Tuesday, hog futures continued to be weak. Before the Spring Festival, the supply of hogs was sufficient, and the spot price continued to decline. In the long - term, the trend of hog production capacity reduction remained unchanged. The view is "oscillating" [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Viewpoints - **Corn**: Affected by the rise in soybean prices, the corn futures price stopped falling and rose on Tuesday. Before the Spring Festival, the 3 - month contract positions were transferred to the 5 - month contract. The spot market was waiting for the guidance of the futures market. The trading in the Northeast corn market was basically over, and the price was stable. The deep - processing enterprises in the Northeast stopped purchasing during the Spring Festival. The price in the selling area adjusted slightly, and downstream feed enterprises were cautious. The price will maintain a narrow - range shock before the Spring Festival [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans closed higher on Tuesday, and soybean oil futures reached a new high. The February supply - demand report was bearish, but the market was optimistic about the demand for US soybean oil. In the domestic market, the import cost increased, but the supply was sufficient, and the inventory pressure increased. The strategy is to participate in the short - term and exit the 5 - 9 reverse spread [1]. - **Oils and Fats**: BMD palm oil fell on Tuesday, following the decline in the surrounding market. The MPOB report was bullish, but the high - frequency data showed a decline in palm oil exports in February. In the domestic market, the oils and fats market was divided, with palm oil being weak. The strong rise of precious metals and the improvement of the commodity atmosphere drove up the price of oils and fats, but the loose supply and weak demand limited the increase. The operation should be short - term [1]. - **Eggs**: Egg futures oscillated on Tuesday. The spot price of eggs continued to decline, and the futures price stabilized after falling to a low level. As the spot price declined, if the breeding profit continued to decline, it would be beneficial to the reduction of production capacity. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the changes in the willingness of the breeding end to eliminate and replenish [1]. - **Pigs**: Hog futures continued to be weak on Tuesday. Before the Spring Festival, the supply of hogs was sufficient, and the spot price continued to decline. In the long - term, the trend of hog production capacity reduction remained unchanged. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of the production capacity reduction progress on the forward contracts [1][2] Market Information - On February 9, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 129.51, down 0.25 points from last Friday. The "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 132.33, down 0.29 points from last Friday. As of 14:00 on the day, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 18.34 yuan/kg, unchanged from last Friday; beef was 66.08 yuan/kg, down 0.6% from last Friday; mutton was 64.51 yuan/kg, up 0.1% from last Friday; eggs were 8.39 yuan/kg, down 1.4% from last Friday; white - striped chicken was 17.18 yuan/kg, down 1.3% from last Friday [3]. - Many soybean crushing plants began to shut down for the Spring Festival holiday from last Friday, and most of them concentrated from the 9th to the 12th, and will resume operation from the 24th to the 26th after the Spring Festival. Feed and breeding enterprises have stocked up in advance, and the market trading is light. Although the开机率 will decline after the plants shut down, the supply of soybean meal will continue to increase due to sufficient soybeans in the plants and limited demand after stocking up, which will make the soybean meal price continue to decline weakly [3]. Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: The report provides charts of 5 - 9 spreads for corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and hogs, but no specific data analysis is given [5][7][8][11] - **Contract Basis**: The report provides charts of the basis for corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and hogs, but no specific data analysis is given [14][17][19][24]
假期临近,震荡为主
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2026-02-11 00:58
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall agricultural market is expected to be mainly volatile as the holiday approaches. Different agricultural products have different trends, including weakening, fluctuating, and potential recovery [1]. - For example, the supply of live pigs is abundant, leading to a weakening of pig prices in the short - term, but the pig cycle is expected to bottom out and recover in the second half of 2026 [1][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1.行情观点 3.1.1. Oils and Fats - **Viewpoint**: Exports are weakening, and sentiment is cautious. Oils and fats are undergoing a corrective adjustment. - **Logic**: The 1 - month palm oil inventory in Malaysia is lower than expected, but the weak export performance from February 1 - 10 has put pressure on sentiment. For soybeans, the market anticipates an increase in South American soybean production in the USDA's February report, and the support from Sino - US agricultural trade is weakening. Regarding rapeseed oil, after the tariff reduction agreement between China and Canada in early January, the supply is expected to increase. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are all expected to be volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to the strategy of buying hedges at low回调 levels [5]. 3.1.2. Protein Meal - **Viewpoint**: Funds are reducing positions before the holiday, and the two types of meal are trading in a narrow range. - **Logic**: Internationally, China's purchase of US soybeans provides support, but the accelerated harvest of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in Brazilian soybean production in the USDA's February report suppress the upward space of US soybean futures prices. Domestically, due to factors such as the exchange's margin increase and the Spring Festival holiday, pre - holiday funds are mainly for risk - avoidance, and the market is inactive. After the holiday, the cost of imported soybeans is expected to decrease, and the spot and basis of soybean meal are expected to be weak. - **Outlook**: Both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to be volatile [6]. 3.1.3. Corn - **Viewpoint**: Pre - holiday arrivals are decreasing, and prices are volatile. - **Logic**: As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream procurement is coming to an end, and the trading activity is decreasing. After the holiday, there may be some selling pressure, but the remaining grain pressure is limited. The supply of feed grains is supplemented by policy - grain auctions and imported grains. - **Outlook**: Volatile. Pay attention to the trading and restocking rhythm of traders after the holiday [8][9]. 3.1.4. Live Pigs - **Viewpoint**: Supply is abundant, and pig prices are weakening. - **Logic**: In the short - term, as the Spring Festival approaches, the number of slaughtered pigs is increasing, and the average weight is decreasing. In the medium - term, the supply surplus pressure will last until at least April 2026. In the long - term, the process of capacity reduction was hindered in January 2026. After the holiday, the demand will decrease significantly, and the supply is still excessive in the first quarter of 2026. It is expected that the pressure on live pig slaughter will weaken in the second half of 2026. - **Outlook**: Weakly volatile. Before the Spring Festival, there is a risk of selling pressure. After the holiday, the fundamentals remain weak. It is recommended that the industrial side pay attention to the hedging opportunity of short - selling at high prices in the first half of the year. The pig cycle is expected to bottom out and recover in the second half of 2026 [1][10]. 3.1.5. Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: Maintaining range - bound trading. - **Logic**: The rubber price is expected to continue range - bound trading before the holiday. Although the fundamentals are relatively weak, there is a possibility of an early rise due to expected factors. The overseas supply is increasing seasonally, and the demand side has some support but no large - scale restocking. The obvious negative factor is the rapid inventory accumulation. - **Outlook**: Volatile. The trading volume is limited, but the capital attention is increasing [11][12]. 3.1.6. Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: Mainly range - bound trading before the holiday. - **Logic**: The BR futures price first rose and then fell. The fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the trading of butadiene is not bad. The mid - term core logic is the expectation of tight supply of butadiene in the first half of 2026. - **Outlook**: Weakly bullish in the medium - term. Although the short - term rise is fast and needs adjustment, the mid - term trend is still bullish [13]. 3.1.7. Cotton - **Viewpoint**: Lack of upward momentum before the holiday. - **Logic**: The processing and inspection of new cotton are coming to an end, and the demand is improving. However, as the Spring Festival approaches, textile factories are shutting down for holidays. Before the holiday, there is no obvious driving force, and the cotton price is expected to be range - bound. After the holiday, the traditional peak season will boost the cotton price. In the long - term, the domestic cotton supply - demand pattern is expected to be in a tight balance, and the cotton price center is expected to rise. - **Outlook**: Weakly bullish. It is recommended to buy on dips [14]. 3.1.8. Sugar - **Viewpoint**: Brazil still has export potential, and sugar prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the medium - and long - term. - **Logic**: In the 2025/2026 sugar - making season, the global sugar market is expected to have a supply surplus. Major producing countries are expected to increase production. Brazil's production is coming to an end, but its export potential is large. The production in the Northern Hemisphere is optimistic. - **Outlook**: Weakly volatile. It is recommended to short on rebounds [16]. 3.1.9. Pulp - **Viewpoint**: Spot prices are almost stagnant, and futures are fluctuating independently. - **Logic**: Before the Spring Festival, the supply - demand situation is weak, and both the terminal and downstream are in a low - demand state. After the holiday, the seasonal recovery of demand will bring marginal benefits. The valuation of pulp futures is not high, and the downward space is limited. - **Outlook**: Volatile. It is recommended to wait and see during the Spring Festival [17]. 3.1.10. Double - Glued Paper - **Viewpoint**: Trading is coming to an end, and double - glued paper is trading in a narrow range. - **Logic**: The double - glued paper market has entered a pre - holiday stagnant state. Paper mills' production is basically stable, and some production lines have maintenance plans. After the holiday, the consumption recovery rhythm depends on the resumption of work of downstream printing factories, and there may be more price - cutting phenomena. - **Outlook**: Weakly volatile. It is recommended to operate within the range of 4000 - 4400 yuan/ton [18][19]. 3.1.11. Logs - **Viewpoint**: Trading is light, and the market is range - bound. - **Logic**: Before the holiday, the log market is entering a shutdown stage, and trading is light. The spot price is relatively stable, and the market is range - bound. Although the fundamentals have improved marginally, there is still pressure from weak future demand and expected supply increase. - **Outlook**: Volatile. It is recommended to operate within the range of 770 - 830 yuan/cubic meter for the short - term 03 contract [21][22]. 3.2. Variety Data Monitoring The report only lists the names of varieties such as oils and fats, protein meal, corn, etc., but no specific data monitoring content is provided. 3.3. CITIC Futures Commodity Index (February 10, 2026) - **Composite Index**: The commodity 20 index is 2722.24, up 0.43%; the industrial products index is 2281.60, up 0.12%; the PPI commodity index is 1404.94, up 0.04%. - **Sector Index**: The agricultural product index on February 10, 2026, is 927.60, with a daily decline of 0.03%, a 5 - day decline of 0.61%, a 1 - month decline of 1.66%, and a decline of 0.58% since the beginning of the year [182][183][184].