Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [5][78]. Core Viewpoints - The pig farming sector is experiencing continued price declines, leading to negative profits for farmers. As of September 26, the pig price was 12.50 CNY/kg, down 0.19 CNY/kg week-on-week. The profits for self-breeding and purchased piglet farming were -74.11 CNY/head and -236.57 CNY/head, respectively, with week-on-week declines of -49.66 CNY and -37.25 CNY [2][11][36]. - In the beef sector, prices for calves and fattened bulls have stabilized after recent increases, with calf prices at 32.36 CNY/kg and fattened bull prices at 25.96 CNY/kg, both unchanged week-on-week. The long-term supply of beef is expected to tighten, with a potential price upturn anticipated in 2026-2027 [3][38]. - The poultry sector is seeing mixed trends, with white feathered chicken prices experiencing slight fluctuations due to steady demand ahead of the holidays. As of September 26, the price was 6.90 CNY/kg, up 0.02 CNY/kg week-on-week [4][44]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - Continued price decline in pig farming, with significant losses reported for farmers. The average weight of pigs being sold has shown a mixed trend, with group farms seeing slight increases while smallholders have decreased [2][11][24]. - The supply pressure remains high, and prices are expected to remain weak in the short term, although long-term adjustments in production capacity may lead to price recovery [36][32]. Beef Industry - The beef market is stabilizing after a period of price increases, with expectations of tightening supply in the medium to long term due to previous losses in the industry [3][38]. - The price of calves has increased by 34% since the beginning of the year, indicating a potential recovery in the market [38]. Poultry Sector - The white chicken market is experiencing stable prices with slight increases in certain areas due to tight supply. The egg price has decreased slightly, reflecting market conditions [4][44]. - The ongoing avian influenza situation may impact supply chains, but there is potential for recovery in consumption due to government policies promoting domestic demand [47]. Agricultural Products - The Argentine government's recent policy changes regarding export tariffs have significantly impacted soybean meal prices, leading to a sharp decline followed by a rebound [4][58]. - The focus on enhancing grain production and food security is emphasized, with potential growth in agricultural technology sectors [54].

【豆一】 国产大豆盘面延续减仓价格反弹的势头,价格表现强于进口大豆,价差呈现扩大的走势。国产新季大豆上市在 即，新豆报价偏疲弱。进口大豆方面阿根廷农业政策本周波动较大，一周之内发生了从免税出口到出口税收减 免的政令结束。中国本周加快了阿根廷大豆的采购量。我们倾向于即使不采购美国大豆,叠加中国庞大的库存 缓冲和南美大豆的供应,后续国内豆类会进行逐步去库,容易使得明年一季度大豆供应趋紧,但是我们倾向大 豆供应链缺口风险会缓解，明年二季度大豆供应情况重点关注巴西新作情况。短期关注国产大豆收购量和收购 价格的指引以及进口大豆表现。 【大豆&豆粕】 今日连粕主力合约继续下跌0.81%。本周一阿根廷出口政策出台后连箱下跌较大。截至周三相关产品销售额达到 70亿美元上限，阿根廷取消豆类免税政策。期间国内大约进口了220多万吨阿根廷大豆。近期豆粕行情受国外政 策扰动太大,继续观望,长期我们继续谨慎看多连粕。 (豆油&棕榈油) | | | | | 操作评级 | 2025年09月26日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆一 | な☆☆ | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | | F0285733 Z0011333 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [42] Core Viewpoints - Recent declines in pig prices and continuous profit decreases for breeding companies will force upstream breeding sows to reduce stock. The current stock of breeding sows remains relatively high, indicating significant potential for future reduction. The valuation of pig breeding companies is still at a historically low level, presenting an opportunity for investment based on capacity reduction expectations. In the chicken breeding sector, overall capacity is relatively high, and profitability remains under pressure. There is a potential for capacity reduction in the future, with attention to marginal profit improvement opportunities. In the feed sector, opportunities arise from increased market concentration and overseas expansion. The domestic pet market still has expansion potential, with leading domestic companies expected to maintain rapid growth [42][43] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The SW agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry slightly underperformed the CSI 300 index, declining by 5.07% from September 12 to September 25, 2025, lagging behind the index by approximately 6.07 percentage points [10] - All sub-sectors recorded negative returns during this period, with declines of 2.89% in planting, 3.59% in animal health, 4.36% in feed, 5.32% in agricultural product processing, 5.95% in breeding, and 6.73% in fisheries [13][14] 2. Industry Key Data - **Pig Farming**: The average price of external three-way cross pigs fell from 13.31 CNY/kg to 12.51 CNY/kg during the reporting period. The cost of corn was 2365.1 CNY/ton, and soybean meal was 3002 CNY/ton, both showing slight declines. As of September 26, 2025, the profit for self-bred pigs was -74.11 CNY/head, and for purchased piglets, it was -236.57 CNY/head, indicating a decrease in profitability [22][24][27] - **Poultry Farming**: The average price of broiler chicks was 3.29 CNY/chick, showing a slight increase, while the average price of white feather broilers was 6.9 CNY/kg, reflecting a slight decline. The profit for white feather broilers was -2.22 CNY/chick, also indicating a decrease [29][33] - **Aquaculture**: The average wholesale prices for crucian carp and carp were 21.09 CNY/kg and 14.2 CNY/kg, respectively, both showing slight declines [35] 3. Industry News - Argentina announced a temporary zero-export tax on agricultural products, effective from September 23, 2025, until October 31, or until exports reach 7 billion USD. This measure aims to address domestic foreign exchange pressures and currency devaluation, significantly lowering export costs and enhancing competitiveness in the global market [37]

Group 1 - The article highlights a significant inflow of 24 million units into the Livestock ETF (159865), indicating strong investor interest in livestock assets [1] - The swine breeding industry is experiencing ongoing supply pressure, with a 0.80% month-on-month decrease in the number of breeding sows in August, and a notable decline in pork prices, with the price per kilogram dropping by 2.74% to 13.15 yuan as of September 18 [1] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, along with the National Development and Reform Commission, held a meeting on September 16, 2025, to discuss swine production capacity control, emphasizing a reduction in production tasks for major breeding groups by the end of the year [1] Group 2 - The poultry farming sector is facing uncertainties due to frequent outbreaks of avian influenza, which has led to a 20.69% month-on-month increase in the number of grandparent stock updates in August, positively impacting the white feather chicken industry chain prices in the medium to long term [1] - The recent low pork prices are crucial for stabilizing the Consumer Price Index (CPI), as pork accounts for over 20% of its weight, highlighting the macroeconomic significance of price stability [1] - Investors without stock accounts are encouraged to consider the Guotai CSI Livestock Breeding ETF Connect A (012724) and Connect C (012725) as alternative investment options [1]

申万宏源证券指出，在基本面变化与政策指引的共同驱动下，生猪养殖行业产能去化节奏有望加快。短 期盈利下行或加速低效产能淘汰，"反内卷"政策加码也将驱动母猪存栏下降。2025年上半年，生猪供给 增加导致猪价同比小幅回落，但行业通过"以量补价"和降本增效实现业绩显著改善，头部企业凭借成本 优势实现超额盈利。 政策层面，生猪产能调控座谈会提出半年内调减100万头能繁母猪，进一步锚定产能去化趋势。中长期 看，行业正进入稳健高质量发展阶段，企业盈利中枢和稳定性有望抬升，头部猪企现金流改善、负债率 下降，分红价值凸显。 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不 构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相 匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日经济新闻 养殖ETF（159865）跟踪的是中证畜牧指数（930707），该指数从沪深市场中选取业务涉及畜禽养殖、 饲料加工等领域的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映畜牧业相关上市公司证券的整体表 ...

Summary of the Conference Call on the Beef Cattle Industry Industry Overview - The beef cattle industry is experiencing significant capacity reduction due to deep losses in 2024, leading to the culling of young and pregnant cows. The trend of capacity reduction is expected to continue into 2025, albeit at a slower pace. The southern regions have seen an 8% decline in cow inventory, with some areas experiencing reductions of up to 30% [1][2][3] - The supply of calves has noticeably decreased, with calf prices doubling at the beginning of 2025, indicating a future tightening of beef supply [1][2] Key Supporting Factors for the Beef Cattle Cycle 1. **Capacity Reduction**: The domestic beef cattle farming industry has faced supply shocks, leading to the culling of inefficient cows and the introduction of new breeding stock. The trend of culling continues into 2025, with calf supply significantly reduced [2][3] 2. **Global Price Transmission**: Major beef-producing countries like the US, Brazil, and Australia have also undergone capacity reductions. The CME live cattle futures price has doubled since 2020, and this global price increase is transmitted to the domestic market, supporting domestic beef prices [2][3] 3. **Policy Support**: The Chinese government is implementing measures to protect domestic farming, including an investigation into import safeguards that has affected import volumes, allowing the domestic market time to adjust [3] Market Conditions for 2025 and Beyond - In 2025, there will be a shortage of calves but an adequate supply of fattened cattle and finished meat. The impact of previous capacity reductions has not fully materialized, leading to a continued influx of cow meat into the market [4] - The price uptrend is expected to officially begin in 2026, with prices anticipated to rise significantly due to the effects of the severe capacity reduction in 2024, continuing through 2027 and possibly into 2028 [4] Characteristics of the Beef Cattle Industry Chain - The beef cattle industry chain includes upstream feed, midstream fattening and slaughter, and downstream consumption. Feed costs account for 50%-70% of farming costs, with a long growth cycle and low breeding efficiency [5] - The industry is characterized by low concentration, with the top 50 companies holding a small share of total inventory [5] Global and Domestic Meat Trade Dynamics - The top ten beef-producing countries account for 87% of global production, with the US being the largest producer at over 12 million tons. China produces around 8 million tons but still imports approximately 2.8 million tons, primarily from South America [6] - China's demand significantly influences global trade structures, with Brazil being the largest supplier, followed by Argentina and Australia [6] Cost Disparities in Beef Cattle Farming - Domestic beef cattle farming costs are significantly higher than in Brazil due to factors such as scarce pasture resources and high feed and labor costs. Domestic costs range from 10,000 to 20,000 yuan, while Brazilian costs are between 5,000 to 8,000 yuan [8] - The low level of industrialization and efficiency in domestic beef production contributes to these high costs [7][8] Historical Price Trends - Since 2000, domestic beef prices have generally trended upward, with a notable decline in 2023 due to increased supply and reduced consumption growth. This marked the first historical price drop, with inventory levels declining for two consecutive years [9] Current and Future Supply-Demand Situation - Domestic per capita beef consumption remains low compared to countries like Japan and South Korea, indicating significant growth potential. The consumption of high-quality beef is growing faster than that of regular beef, with premium varieties seeing growth rates of up to 30% [10] Investment Opportunities - The current phase represents a critical price turning point in the Chinese beef cattle market. Companies such as YouRan MuYe, China Shengmu, and Modern Farming are recommended for investment due to their ability to generate cash flow through the culling of dairy cows and their growth potential in the beef market [11][12]

农产品团队 | 作者： | 王亮亮 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F03096306 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0017427 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578697 | | 作者： | 侯芝芳 | | 从业资格证号： | F3042058 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0014216 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578922 | | 作者： | 王一博 | | 从业资格证号： | F3083334 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0018596 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578169 | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年09月23日星期二 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 养殖油脂产业链日度策略报告 摘要 豆油：日内豆油期价大幅下挫，主要原因在于阿根廷政府宣布，在 10月31日前取消所有大豆、豆粕、豆油的出口税，市场认为榨利回 升后我国 ...

我们为什么现在把养殖重新提出来，然后说现在是一个比较好的位置？我们可以看一下当前所处的猪周期阶段。猪价从2024年下半年开始进入新一轮下行 周期，从2024年8月见顶之后一路下跌，下跌时间已超过一年，本轮猪价下行比较不一样的点在于，受益于养殖效率以及规模化猪场压降成本的能力，在 一年多的下跌时间中，生猪养殖仍保持盈利——即便猪价目前已经跌到了13元/kg，头部猪企仍能盈利。那么在这个过程中，其实产能去化的动力是不足 的，大家都有钱赚。 但是现在情况发生了一些变化，首先是行业自身，现在生猪养殖行业整体基本到了盈亏临界点，而头部猪企把完全成本压到12元/公斤以内，盈利要高于 平均水平——这也意味着，不少规模场已经在亏钱。一旦猪价再往下走，被动去产能大概率就会启动。 那这个猪价下行短期还能持续吗？我们可以去看一下10个月以前的能繁母猪趋势，我们可以看到能繁母猪数量是在回升的——这对应到现在就是供给压力 仍在。所以，短期猪价大概率继续承压。综合来看，当前更像是本轮产能去化的起点：亏损扩大→去化加速→供需再平衡，这个链条正在酝酿。 另外一点就是政策在持续加码，产能调控政策正在从预期走向落地，未来一个季度行业产能或加速去 ...

| | | | | 操作评级 | 2025年09月23日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆一 | ☆☆☆ | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | 豆粕 | な☆☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆油 | 女女女 | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 棕榈油 | ☆☆☆ | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 菜粕 | ★☆☆ | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 菜油 | ★☆☆ | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 玉米 | ★☆☆ | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 生猪 | ★☆☆ | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 鸡蛋 | な☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 短期关注国产大豆收购量和收购价格的指引。今年大豆新作总体供应预期向好。国内大豆和进口大豆价差反 弹,进口大豆价格疲软,由于阿根廷临时取消农产品出口税,以便于增加美元收入,缓解比索的贬值压力,因 此阿根廷豆类品种出口短期会有明显的增量。即使中国不采购美国大豆，叠加中国大豆还有庞大的库存，也容 易使得明年一季度中国大豆 ...

（原标题：猪价创年内新低、养殖利润跌破成本线 政策推动产能去化 畜牧养殖或迎布局窗口？） 生猪期、现、股全面下挫。 根据猪好多网，9月23日，生猪均价12.83元/公斤，仔猪价格24.08元/公斤，双双创下年内新低。 二级市场方面，畜牧养殖ETF（516670）早盘下跌1.66%，成交超4100万元，已超昨日全天水平。Wind 数据显示，近5个交易日，资金连续净流入该ETF累计超8100万元，呈逆势布局趋势。 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪2511合约12795元/吨，较前交易日变动-30.00元/吨，幅度-0.23%。 华鑫期货分析师认为，今年7月中旬，生猪期货价格一度出现快速反弹，主因是市场对生猪养殖行业的 压缩产能有所预期，相关政策和措施也陆续拟出台，但实际效果一般。 对于生猪行业近期表现，财通证券认为，近期集团场标猪供应量增加明显，供大于求。当前补栏仔猪对 应年后出栏，且环保政策监管趋严，仔猪补栏情绪持续回落。 随着猪价回落，生猪养殖利润全面跌破成本线。根据博亚和讯数据，9月19日当周，外购仔猪养殖利润 为-199.31元/头，盈利周环比下滑37.38元/头；自繁自养养殖利润为-24.44元/头，盈利周环比下 ...