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大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20250829
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-08-29 03:30
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the lithium carbonate market shows a complex pattern of supply and demand. The supply is expected to increase, while the demand is anticipated to strengthen, and the inventory may be reduced. The cost - side influence is changing, and the price of lithium carbonate 2511 is expected to fluctuate between 76,560 - 79,720 [9]. - The main logic is that the mismatch between production capacity leads to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [13]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Daily Views - Supply side: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 19,030 tons, a 0.56% week - on - week decrease, but higher than the historical average. In July 2025, the production was 81,530 tons, and the predicted production for next month is 84,200 tons, a 3.27% increase. The import volume in July was 13,845 tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 18,500 tons, a 33.62% increase [8][9]. - Demand side: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 93,640 tons, a 1.51% week - on - week decrease, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 17,617 tons, a 1.86% week - on - week increase. Next month's demand is expected to strengthen, and the inventory may be reduced [8][9]. - Cost side: The daily - average CIF price of 6% concentrate decreased, lower than the historical average. The cost of purchased spodumene concentrate is 78,454 yuan/ton, with no daily change, and the production profit is 2,418 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica is 81,292 yuan/ton, with no daily change, and the production loss is 3,245 yuan/ton. The cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, and the production enthusiasm is average. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt - lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and high production motivation [9][10]. 3.2. Market Overview - Futures closing prices: All contracts showed a downward trend, with the decline ranging from 0.91% - 1.34% [16]. - Basis: All contracts showed a downward trend, with the decline ranging from 13.66% - 32.12% [16]. - Registered warrants: The number was 28,957, a 5.39% increase [16]. - Upstream prices: The price of spodumene (6%) decreased by 3.37%, the price of lithium mica concentrate (2% - 2.5%) decreased by 2.79%, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 1.96%, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 2.02% [16]. 3.3. Supply - Lithium Ore - Price: The price of spodumene and lithium mica concentrate decreased [16]. - Production: The monthly production of lithium ore showed an increasing trend, and the production from different sources such as lithium spodumene, lithium mica, and salt - lake also changed [27][30]. - Import: The monthly import volume of lithium ore increased, especially from Australia [21]. - Supply - demand balance: There were shortages in most months, with the shortage situation varying [30]. 3.4. Supply - Lithium Carbonate - Production: The weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate showed different trends, and the production from different raw materials also changed [33]. - Import: The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate decreased, especially from Chile [21]. - Supply - demand balance: There were shortages and surpluses in different months, with the situation fluctuating [38]. 3.5. Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - Production: The weekly and monthly production of lithium hydroxide changed, and the production from different sources (smelting and causticizing) also varied [41]. - Export: The monthly export volume of lithium hydroxide decreased [43]. - Supply - demand balance: There were shortages and surpluses in different months, with the situation changing [43]. 3.6. Cost - profit of Lithium Compounds - The cost and profit of purchased spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, and different recycling materials showed different trends. The profit of industrial - grade lithium carbonate purification, lithium hydroxide carbonation to lithium carbonate, and other processes also changed [46][48][50]. 3.7. Inventory - The inventory of lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and related products showed different trends in weekly and monthly terms, with the inventory levels of different sources (downstream, smelting plants) also varying [53]. 3.8. Demand - Lithium Battery - Price: The price of batteries showed different trends [57]. - Production: The monthly production of battery cells showed different trends for different types (power ternary, power lithium iron phosphate, energy storage) [57]. - Shipment: The monthly shipment of power battery cells also showed different trends for different types [57]. 3.9. Demand - Ternary Precursor - Price: The price of ternary precursors showed different trends [62]. - Production: The monthly production of ternary precursors showed different trends for different types (333, 523, 622, 811, NCA) [62]. - Supply - demand balance: There were shortages and surpluses in different months, with the situation changing [65]. 3.10. Demand - Ternary Material - Price: The price of ternary materials showed different trends [68]. - Production: The weekly and monthly production of ternary materials showed different trends for different types [68]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory of ternary materials showed different trends [70]. 3.11. Demand - Lithium Iron Phosphate/Lithium Iron Phosphate - Price: The price of lithium iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate showed different trends [72]. - Production: The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate showed different trends [75]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory of lithium iron phosphate showed different trends [76]. 3.12. Demand - New Energy Vehicle - Production: The production of new energy vehicles showed different trends for different types (plug - in hybrid, pure - electric) [80]. - Sales: The sales of new energy vehicles showed different trends for different types (plug - in hybrid, pure - electric) [80]. - Penetration rate: The sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles showed an increasing trend [81].
大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20250828
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-08-28 09:31
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply - last week, lithium carbonate production was 19,138 tons, a 4.21% week - on - week decrease but higher than the historical average. In July 2025, production was 81,530 tons, and the predicted production for next month is 84,200 tons, a 3.27% increase. July's import volume was 13,845 tons, and next month's predicted import is 18,500 tons, a 33.62% increase [8][9]. - Demand - last week, the inventory of sample lithium iron phosphate enterprises was 93,640 tons, a 1.51% week - on - week decrease, and the inventory of sample ternary material enterprises was 17,617 tons, a 1.86% week - on - week increase. Next month's demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may decline [8]. - Cost - the daily CIF price of 6% concentrate is flat week - on - week, lower than the historical average, and the demand - led situation has weakened. Lithium carbonate 2511 is expected to fluctuate between 77,200 - 80,520 [9]. - Overall situation - due to capacity mismatch, supply is stronger than demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Supply: last week's production decreased week - on - week but was higher than the historical average. July's production and import volume are predicted to increase next month. - Demand: last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate enterprises decreased, while that of ternary material enterprises increased. Next month's demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may decline. - Cost: the daily CIF price of 6% concentrate is flat week - on - week, lower than the historical average. - Expected range: lithium carbonate 2511 is expected to fluctuate between 77,200 - 80,520 [8][9]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Market Data**: - Lithium ore prices: the price of 6% lithium spodumene is $920/ton, flat week - on - week; the price of 2% - 2.5% lithium mica concentrate is 1,970 yuan/ton, flat week - on - week. - Lithium salt prices: the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 81,600 yuan/ton, a 0.12% week - on - week decrease; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 79,300 yuan/ton, a 0.13% week - on - week decrease. - Other prices: the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 56,400 yuan/ton, a 1.08% week - on - week increase [14]. - **Supply - Side Data**: - Lithium ore: the monthly production of lithium ore is expected to increase, and the import volume is also expected to increase significantly. - Lithium carbonate: the weekly production of lithium carbonate decreased week - on - week, and the monthly production is expected to increase. The import volume decreased month - on - month. - Lithium hydroxide: the weekly production of lithium hydroxide decreased week - on - week, and the monthly production is expected to increase. The export volume increased month - on - month [19]. - **Demand - Side Data**: - Lithium battery: the monthly output of lithium batteries increased month - on - month, and the demand for lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide is expected to increase. - New energy vehicles: the monthly production and sales of new energy vehicles decreased month - on - month, and the penetration rate increased [20]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - Price: the price of lithium ore has fluctuated in recent years, and the current price is at a relatively low level. - Production: the production of domestic lithium spodumene mines and lithium mica has increased year - on - year. - Import: the import volume of lithium ore has increased year - on - year, mainly from Australia. - Supply - demand balance: the domestic lithium ore supply - demand balance has been in a state of shortage in recent years [26]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - Production: the weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate has increased year - on - year, mainly from lithium spodumene, lithium mica, and recycled materials. - Import: the import volume of lithium carbonate has decreased month - on - month, mainly from Chile. - Supply - demand balance: the domestic lithium carbonate supply - demand balance has been in a state of surplus in recent months [32]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - Production: the weekly and monthly production of lithium hydroxide has increased year - on - year, mainly from smelting and causticizing. - Export: the export volume of lithium hydroxide has increased year - on - year, mainly to overseas markets. - Supply - demand balance: the domestic lithium hydroxide supply - demand balance has been in a state of surplus in recent months [41]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost and Profit - Lithium spodumene: the production cost of lithium spodumene has decreased week - on - week, and the production profit has increased. - Lithium mica: the production cost of lithium mica is flat week - on - week, and the production profit has decreased. - Lithium carbonate import: the import profit of lithium carbonate has decreased week - on - week. - Other aspects: the cost and profit of other lithium compounds, such as lithium hydroxide and recycled lithium carbonate, also show different trends [46]. 3.7 Inventory - Lithium carbonate: the total inventory of lithium carbonate decreased week - on - week, with the inventory of smelters decreasing and the inventory of downstream enterprises increasing. - Lithium hydroxide: the inventory of lithium hydroxide decreased week - on - week [54]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - Price: the price of lithium batteries has fluctuated in recent years, and the current price is at a relatively low level. - Output: the monthly output of lithium batteries has increased year - on - year, mainly for power batteries and energy - storage batteries. - Demand: the demand for lithium batteries is expected to increase in the future, driven by the development of new energy vehicles and energy - storage industries [58]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - Price: the price of ternary precursors has fluctuated in recent years, and the current price is at a relatively low level. - Cost and profit: the production cost of ternary precursors has decreased week - on - week, and the production profit has increased. - Supply - demand balance: the domestic ternary precursor supply - demand balance has been in a state of surplus in recent months [63]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - Price: the price of ternary materials has fluctuated in recent years, and the current price is at a relatively low level. - Cost and profit: the production cost of ternary materials has decreased week - on - week, and the production profit has increased. - Supply - demand balance: the domestic ternary material supply - demand balance has been in a state of surplus in recent months [69]. 3.11 Demand - Phosphoric Acid Iron/Phosphoric Acid Iron Lithium - Price: the price of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium has fluctuated in recent years, and the current price is at a relatively low level. - Cost and profit: the production cost of phosphoric acid iron has decreased week - on - week, and the production profit has increased. The production cost of phosphoric acid iron lithium is flat week - on - week, and the production profit has decreased. - Supply - demand balance: the domestic phosphoric acid iron/phosphoric acid iron lithium supply - demand balance has been in a state of surplus in recent months [73]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - Production and sales: the monthly production and sales of new energy vehicles decreased month - on - month, and the penetration rate increased. - Retail - wholesale ratio: the retail - wholesale ratio of hybrid and pure - electric new energy vehicles has increased year - on - year. - Inventory: the inventory warning index and inventory index of dealers have increased year - on - year [80].
大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20250826
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-08-26 03:21
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand situation of lithium carbonate shows that the supply is relatively abundant, and the demand is expected to strengthen in the next month with potential inventory reduction. The cost - dominated situation has weakened, and the price of lithium carbonate 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 77,640 - 81,120 [8][9]. - The overall situation of the lithium - related industry is affected by factors such as production capacity mismatch, resulting in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoint - **Supply Side**: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 19,138 tons, a 4.21% decrease from the previous week but higher than the historical average. In July 2025, the production was 81,530 tons, and the predicted production for next month is 84,200 tons, a 3.27% increase. The import volume in July was 13,845 tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 18,500 tons, a 33.62% increase [8][9]. - **Demand Side**: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 93,640 tons, a 1.51% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 17,617 tons, a 1.86% increase. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced [8][9]. - **Cost Side**: The daily -环比 cost of 6% concentrate CIF decreased, lower than the historical average. The cost of purchased spodumene concentrate is 78,817 yuan/ton, a 0.89% daily decrease, with a profit of 2,516 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lepidolite is 81,868 yuan/ton, a 3.53% daily decrease, with a loss of 5,641 yuan/ton. The cost of the recycling end is generally higher than that of the ore end, and the production enthusiasm is low. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt - lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9][10]. - **Market Situation**: The basis of the 11 - contract is 3,120 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price. The overall inventory is 141,543 tons, a 0.50% decrease from the previous week, higher than the historical average. The main position is net short, and the short position increases. The MA20 of the disk is upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closes above the MA20 [10]. - **Leverage Factors**: Positive factors include manufacturers' production suspension and reduction plans, a decrease in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of spodumene. Negative factors include the continuous high supply at the ore/salt - lake end with limited decline, and the insufficient willingness of the power - battery end to take delivery [11][12]. 3.2 Carbonate Lithium Market Overview - **Price Changes**: The prices of various lithium - related products such as lithium ore, lithium salt, cathode materials, and lithium batteries have different degrees of changes, including increases and decreases [16]. - **Supply - Demand Data**: The weekly and monthly production, import, export, inventory, and other data of lithium carbonate and related products show different trends of increase and decrease [19]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Price and Production**: The price of lithium ore shows a certain trend of change, and the production of Chinese sample spodumene mines and domestic lepidolite has different levels of production in different months and years [26]. - **Import and Self - Sufficiency Rate**: The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate has increased, and the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore has also changed [26]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore shows different surpluses and deficits in different months from 2024 to 2025 [29]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - **Production and Capacity**: The weekly and monthly production and capacity of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium辉石, lithium mica, salt lake, recycling) show different trends [32]. - **Import and Export**: The monthly import and export volume of lithium carbonate has changed, and the export volume from Chile to China has also shown a downward trend [32][35]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate shows different surpluses and deficits in different months from 2024 to 2025 [38]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The weekly capacity utilization rate and monthly production of lithium hydroxide from different sources (causticization, smelting) show different trends [41]. - **Export**: The export volume of lithium hydroxide has changed in different months and years [41]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide shows different surpluses and deficits in different months from 2024 to 2025 [43]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - **Cost and Profit of Different Raw Materials**: The production cost and profit of lithium compounds from different raw materials (spodumene concentrate, lepidolite concentrate, recycled materials) show different trends [46][49]. - **Processing and Purification Profit**: The processing profit between different types of lithium hydroxide and the purification profit of industrial - grade lithium carbonate also show different trends [49][52]. 3.7 Inventory - **Carbonate Lithium Inventory**: The weekly and monthly inventory of lithium carbonate from different sources (smelter, downstream, other) shows different trends of increase and decrease [19][54]. - **Lithium Hydroxide Inventory**: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide from different sources (smelter, downstream) shows different trends [54]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - **Price and Production**: The price, production, and shipment volume of lithium batteries show different trends, and the export volume of lithium batteries also changes in different years [58]. - **Cost**: The cost of lithium - battery cells shows different trends [58]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Price and Cost - Profit**: The price of ternary precursor shows a certain trend of change, and the cost - profit situation of different types of ternary precursors also shows different trends [63]. - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The monthly production and capacity utilization rate of ternary precursors show different trends [63]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors shows different surpluses and deficits in different months from 2024 to 2025 [66]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - **Price and Cost - Profit**: The price of ternary materials shows a certain trend of change, and the cost - profit situation of different types of ternary materials also shows different trends [69]. - **Production and Inventory**: The production and weekly inventory of ternary materials show different trends [69][71]. 3.11 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - **Price and Cost - Profit**: The price of iron phosphate/iron phosphate lithium shows a certain trend of change, and the cost - profit situation of iron phosphate lithium also shows different trends [73]. - **Production and Export**: The monthly production and export volume of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium show different trends [76]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory of iron phosphate lithium shows different trends [78]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - **Production, Sales, and Export**: The production, sales, and export volume of new energy vehicles show different trends, and the sales penetration rate also changes [81][82]. - **Retail - Wholesale Ratio and Inventory Index**: The retail - wholesale ratio of hybrid and pure - electric new energy vehicles and the inventory warning index and inventory index of dealers show different trends [85].
华利集团(300979):25H1老客户订单承压、产能错配,盈利能力下滑
CMS· 2025-08-25 08:13
Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy rating for the company, with a target valuation not specified [3][7]. Core Views - The company's revenue and net profit for H1 2025 showed a year-on-year increase of 9% and a decrease of 17%, respectively, due to pressure from old customer orders and capacity mismatch [1][7]. - The company is expected to experience a decline in net profit for 2025, followed by growth in 2026 and 2027, with projected net profits of 3.51 billion, 4.18 billion, and 4.95 billion yuan, respectively [1][7]. - The company is expanding its production capacity in Southeast Asia, with new factories in Vietnam and Indonesia expected to come online in the second half of the year [6][7]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company's revenue reached 12.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, while net profit was 1.67 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.1% [1][7]. - The gross profit margin decreased by 6.38 percentage points to 21.85% in H1 2025, with a net profit margin of 13.2% [6][7]. - The company’s cash flow from operating activities was 1.564 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.18% year-on-year [6][7]. Business Segmentation - Revenue from the sports shoe segment increased by 10.8% to 11.34 billion yuan, while outdoor footwear revenue decreased by 57.3% to 261 million yuan [1][2]. - Revenue from North America decreased by 0.4% to 9.89 billion yuan, while European revenue increased by 88.94% to 2.397 billion yuan [2][6]. Capacity and Efficiency - The company's capacity utilization rate was 95.78% in H1 2025, with domestic utilization at 98.7% [6][7]. - New factories in Vietnam and Indonesia are expected to enhance production efficiency, although current efficiency is lower than that of older factories [6][7]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 26.49 billion, 30.02 billion, and 33.96 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with growth rates of 10%, 13%, and 13% [7]. - The current market capitalization corresponds to a PE ratio of 18x for 2025 and 15x for 2026 [1][7].
工业硅期货早报-20250825
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 05:21
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply side production scheduling has increased and is near the historical average level, while the demand recovery is at a low level, with weakening cost support. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,570 - 8,920 [3][6]. - For polysilicon, the supply - side production scheduling will increase in the short - term and may adjust in the medium - term. The demand side shows continuous recovery overall, with weakening cost support. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 50,100 - 52,710 [7][10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply side: Last week, the supply of industrial silicon was 88,000 tons, a 1.15% increase compared to the previous week [6]. - Demand side: Last week, the demand for industrial silicon was 79,000 tons, a 1.25% decrease compared to the previous week, with continuous weak demand [6]. - Inventory: The silicon inventory was 249,000 tons, at a high level; the organic silicon inventory was 54,300 tons, at a low level; the aluminum alloy ingot inventory was 512,100 tons, at a high level [6]. - Cost: The production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang was 3,174 yuan/ton, and the cost support during the wet season has weakened [6]. - Market: The spot price of non - oxygen - passing in East China was 9,050 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 305 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. The main position was net short, and the short position increased [6]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Supply side: Last week, the polysilicon output was 29,100 tons, a 0.68% decrease compared to the previous week. The production scheduling for August is predicted to be 130,500 tons, a 22.76% increase compared to the previous month [8]. - Demand side: Last week, the silicon wafer output was 12.29GW, a 1.57% increase compared to the previous week, and the inventory was 174,100 tons, a 12.07% decrease compared to the previous week. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The production of battery cells and components shows different trends in production, inventory, and profit [9]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry was 35,590 yuan/ton, and the production profit was 12,410 yuan/ton [9]. - Market: The basis of the 11 - contract was - 2,405 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The main position was net long, and the long position decreased [10]. 3.2 Market Overview 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - Futures closing prices of different contracts showed different degrees of increase or decrease compared to the previous values, and there were also corresponding changes in inventory and production data [16]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - Futures closing prices of different contracts showed different degrees of increase or decrease compared to the previous values, and there were also corresponding changes in prices, inventories, and production data of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [18]. 3.3 Other Aspects - The report also presents various data trends and analyses on industrial silicon and polysilicon, including price - basis and delivery product spread trends, inventory, production and capacity utilization, cost, supply - demand balance, and downstream product trends [20][24][31]
大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20250820
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 02:11
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of lithium carbonate last week showed an increase, with production reaching 19,980 tons, a 2.16% week - on - week growth and higher than the historical average. Demand - side inventory of sample enterprises also increased, with the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises rising by 0.51% to 95,081 tons and that of ternary material sample enterprises increasing by 4.45% to 17,296 tons. [8] - In terms of cost, the cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate was 82,375 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.04%, resulting in a profit of 2,126 yuan/ton. The cost of purchasing lepidolite was 86,253 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged, leading to a loss of 3,890 yuan/ton. The cost of the recycling end was close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt - lake end was 31,745 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that of the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation. [9] - The overall assessment of the fundamentals is neutral. The basis on August 19th showed that the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 85,700 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 1,840 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot was at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The overall inventory situation was complex, with the smelter inventory decreasing by 2.56% to 49,693 tons, lower than the historical average, while the downstream and other inventories increased, and the overall inventory decreased slightly by 0.11% to 142,256 tons, higher than the historical average, which is neutral. The disk showed that MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed above MA20, which is bullish. The net short position of the main contract decreased, which is bearish. [9] - In terms of expectations, in July 2025, the production of lithium carbonate was 81,530 physical tons, and the predicted production for the next month is 84,200 physical tons, a 3.27% increase. The import volume in July was 18,000 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for the next month is 18,500 physical tons, a 2.78% increase. It is expected that demand will strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced. The 2511 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 85,640 - 89,440 yuan/ton. [9] - The main logic is that the mismatch between production capacity leads to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change. [12] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 19,980 tons, a 2.16% week - on - week increase and higher than the historical average [8]. - Demand: The inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 95,081 tons, a 0.51% week - on - week increase, and that of ternary material sample enterprises was 17,296 tons, a 4.45% week - on - week increase [8]. - Cost: The cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate was 82,375 yuan/ton, a 0.04% daily increase, with a profit of 2,126 yuan/ton; the cost of purchasing lepidolite was 86,253 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged, with a loss of 3,890 yuan/ton; the cost of the recycling end was close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm; the quarterly cash production cost of the salt - lake end was 31,745 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that of the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9]. - Fundamentals: Neutral; Basis: Bearish; Inventory: Neutral; Disk: Bullish; Main Position: Bearish [9]. - Expectations: In July 2025, lithium carbonate production was 81,530 physical tons, predicted to be 84,200 physical tons next month (3.27% increase); import volume was 18,000 physical tons, predicted to be 18,500 physical tons next month (2.78% increase). Demand is expected to strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced. The 2511 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 85,640 - 89,440 yuan/ton [9]. 3.2 Fundamentals/Position Data - **Supply - side Data** - The weekly operating rate was 63.92%, remaining unchanged. The daily production cost of spodumene was 82,375 yuan/ton, a 0.04% increase. The monthly processing cost of spodumene was 19,810 yuan/ton, a 0.30% increase. The daily production profit of spodumene was 2,126 yuan/ton, a 98.88% increase. The daily production cost of lepidolite was 86,253 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged. The monthly processing cost of lepidolite was 35,300 yuan/ton, a 1.48% decrease. The daily production profit of lepidolite was - 3,890 yuan/ton, a 21.70% decrease. The total weekly inventory of lithium carbonate was 142,256 tons, a 0.11% decrease. The smelter inventory was 49,693 tons, a 2.56% decrease. The downstream inventory was 48,283 tons, a 0.26% increase. Other inventory was 44,280 tons, a 2.36% increase. The monthly total production of lithium carbonate was 81,530 tons, a 4.41% increase. The monthly production of lithium concentrate was 44,810 tons, a 13.59% increase. The monthly production of lepidolite was 18,000 tons, a 7.60% decrease. The monthly production of salt - lake lithium was 12,340 tons, a 7.57% decrease. The monthly production of recycled lithium was 6,380 tons, a 9.81% increase. The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate was 427,626 tons, a 17.25% decrease. The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 17,697.62 tons, a 16.31% decrease. The monthly net import volume was 17,267.97 tons, a 17.22% decrease. The supply - demand balance was 2.682 million tons, a 67.31% increase [16]. - **Demand - side Data** - The monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate was 59%, a 5.36% increase. The monthly production was 252,200 tons, a 9.70% increase. The monthly operating rate of ternary precursor was 50.97%, a 2.93% increase. The monthly production was 68,640 tons, a 5.75% increase. The weekly inventory of ternary materials was 17,296 tons, a 4.45% increase. The monthly total battery loading volume was 55,900 GWh, a 3.95% decrease. The loading volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 10,900 GWh, a 1.87% increase. The loading volume of ternary batteries was 44,900 GWh, a 5.27% decrease. The production of new energy vehicles was 1,268,000 units, a 0.16% decrease. The sales volume of new energy vehicles was 1.329 million units, a 1.68% increase. The export volume of new energy vehicles was 205,000 units, a 3.30% decrease. The penetration rate of new energy vehicle sales was 48.67%, a 6.36% increase [16].
大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20250806
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-08-06 02:56
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of lithium carbonate decreased by 7.31% week - on - week, higher than the historical average. The demand side showed a decrease in inventory for some sample enterprises, and the cost side had different trends for different raw materials. The market is expected to see strengthened demand next month, with potential inventory reduction, and the supply - demand pattern is shifting towards demand - driven. The lithium carbonate 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 66,200 - 69,480 [8]. - The main logic is that capacity mismatch leads to strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change. There are also some利多 factors such as manufacturers' production cut plans and a decrease in imports from Chile, while利空 factors include high - level supply from ore/salt lake ends and insufficient demand from the power battery end [9][10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Supply**: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 17,268 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 7.31% [8]. - **Demand**: The inventory of phosphoric acid iron - lithium sample enterprises was 93,672 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.27%. The inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 16,499 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.32% [8]. - **Cost**: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate was 68,421 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 0.02%, with a production profit of 1,755 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica was 75,292 yuan/ton, unchanged daily, with a production loss of 6,997 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, and the production enthusiasm is average. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and high production enthusiasm [8]. - **Base Difference**: On August 5th, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 71,200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 3,360 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium [8]. - **Inventory**: The smelter inventory was 51,958 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.18%, lower than the historical average. The downstream inventory was 45,888 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.18%, higher than the historical average. Other inventories were 43,880 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.42%. The total inventory was 141,726 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.00%, higher than the historical average [8]. - **Disk Surface**: The MA20 of the disk surface is upward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20 [8]. - **Main Force Position**: The net short position of the main force decreased [8]. - **Expectation**: In July 2025, lithium carbonate production was 81,530 physical tons, and it is predicted to be 84,200 physical tons next month, a month - on - month increase of 3.27%. The import volume in July was 18,000 physical tons, and it is predicted to be 18,500 physical tons next month, a month - on - month increase of 2.78%. Demand is expected to strengthen next month, with potential inventory reduction. The CIF price of 6% concentrate is flat daily and lower than the historical average. The supply - demand pattern is shifting towards demand - driven, and the lithium carbonate 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 66,200 - 69,480 [8]. 3.2 Market Overview - **Futures Closing Price**: The futures closing prices of different contracts showed a downward trend, with the decline ranging from 0.86% to 2.75% [14]. - **Base Difference**: The base difference of different contracts showed an upward trend, with the increase ranging from 35.43% to 81.40% [14]. - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: The number of registered warehouse receipts was 14,443, a 14.60% increase from the previous value [14]. - **Upstream Prices**: The prices of lithium ore, lithium salt, and other upstream products had different trends, with some remaining unchanged and some showing slight decreases or increases [14]. - **Prices of Cathode Materials and Lithium Batteries**: The prices of cathode materials and lithium batteries also had different trends, with most showing only slight changes [14]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Data Overview - **Supply - Side Data**: The weekly and monthly operating rates of lithium carbonate showed different changes, and the production and processing costs of lithium spodumene also had corresponding trends [16]. - **Demand - Side Data**: The production and inventory of phosphoric acid iron - lithium and ternary materials showed different changes, and the monthly production and export of phosphoric acid iron also had corresponding trends [16]. 3.4 Other Supply - Related Data - **Lithium Ore Supply**: The price, production, import, and self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore had different trends over time [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate Supply**: The production, import, and capacity of lithium carbonate from different sources and grades showed different trends over time [27]. - **Lithium Hydroxide Supply**: The production, export, and capacity utilization rate of lithium hydroxide from different sources showed different trends over time [34]. 3.5 Cost - Profit Data - **Lithium Compound Cost - Profit**: The cost and profit of different lithium compounds, including lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and recycled lithium, showed different trends over time [39][42][45]. 3.6 Inventory Data - **Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: The weekly and monthly inventories of lithium carbonate from different sources showed different trends over time [47]. - **Lithium Hydroxide Inventory**: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide from different sources showed different trends over time [47]. 3.7 Demand - Related Data - **Lithium Battery Demand**: The price, production, shipment, and export of lithium batteries showed different trends over time [50]. - **Ternary Precursor Demand**: The price, cost, profit, production, and supply - demand balance of ternary precursors showed different trends over time [56][59]. - **Ternary Material Demand**: The price, cost, profit, production, and inventory of ternary materials showed different trends over time [62][64]. - **Phosphoric Acid Iron/Phosphoric Acid Iron - Lithium Demand**: The price, cost, profit, production, export, and inventory of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron - lithium showed different trends over time [66][69]. - **New Energy Vehicle Demand**: The production, sales, export, and penetration rate of new energy vehicles showed different trends over time [74][75].
大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20250804
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 05:14
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate is shifting towards demand - led. Although there are some positive factors such as factory production cuts and reduced imports from Chile, the overall market is still affected by over - supply due to high - level supply from ore/salt lake ends and weak demand from the power battery end. The downward trend is difficult to change [8][9][10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 17,268 tons, a 7.31% week - on - week decrease, but still higher than the historical average. In July 2025, the production was 81,530 tons, and it is predicted to reach 84,200 tons next month, a 3.27% increase [8]. - **Demand Side**: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 93,672 tons, a 1.27% week - on - week decrease, and that of ternary material sample enterprises was 16,499 tons, a 0.32% week - on - week decrease. Next month, demand is expected to strengthen and inventory may decline [8]. - **Cost Side**: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 68,189 yuan/ton, a 1.02% daily decrease, with a production profit of 2,136 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica is 75,292 yuan/ton, a 1.21% daily decrease, with a production loss of 6,850 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, and the enthusiasm for production scheduling is average [8]. - **Base Difference**: On August 1st, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 71,350 yuan/ton, and the base difference of the 09 contract was 2,430 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The smelter's inventory was 51,958 tons, a 6.18% week - on - week decrease, lower than the historical average. The downstream inventory was 45,888 tons, a 7.18% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. The overall inventory was 141,726 tons, a 1.00% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average [8]. - **Market**: MA20 is upward, and the price of the 09 contract closes below MA20. The net short position of the main contract is increasing [8]. - **Expectation**: The CIF price of 6% concentrate has a daily decrease and is lower than the historical average. The 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 67,360 - 70,480 [8]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - **Price Changes**: The prices of lithium ore, lithium carbonate, and other related products showed different degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the price of lithium ore 01 increased by 0.61% from 69,140 to 69,560, and the base difference of 01 decreased by 37.41% from 2,860 to 1,790 [13]. - **Supply - Side Data**: The weekly operating rate was 63.92%, a 2.77% increase. The monthly production of lithium carbonate was 81,530 tons, a 4.41% increase. The monthly import of lithium concentrate decreased by 17.25%, and the monthly import of lithium carbonate decreased by 16.31% [17]. - **Demand - Side Data**: The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate was 290,700 tons, a 1.86% increase. The monthly export of lithium iron phosphate was 2,031,541 kg, a 115.75% increase. The monthly production of ternary materials was 68,640 tons, a 5.75% increase [17]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Price and Production**: The price of lithium ore has fluctuated over time. The production of lithium spodumene mines and lithium mica in China has also shown different trends in different years [24]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore shows different situations in different months. For example, in July 2025, the balance was 2,816 tons [26]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - **Production and Capacity**: The production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, and recycling) has different trends. The monthly production in July 2025 was 81,530 tons. The monthly capacity also shows different levels [29]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate varies monthly. In July 2025, the balance was 2,682 tons [33]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Production and Utilization Rate**: The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic lithium hydroxide has different trends in different years. The production from different sources (smelting and causticizing) also shows different situations [36]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide shows different values in different months. In July 2025, the balance was - 3,149 tons [38]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - **Cost and Profit of Different Raw Materials**: The cost and profit of producing lithium carbonate from purchased lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and recycled materials have different trends. For example, the profit of producing lithium carbonate from purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is positive, while that from lithium mica is negative [8][41][44]. - **Profit of Different Processes**: The profit of processes such as purifying industrial - grade lithium carbonate, carbonizing lithium hydroxide to lithium carbonate also shows different trends [44]. 3.7 Inventory - **Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: The inventory of lithium carbonate in smelters, downstream, and other aspects shows different trends. The overall inventory is higher than the historical average [8][49]. - **Lithium Hydroxide Inventory**: The inventory of lithium hydroxide in downstream and smelters also shows different trends [49]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - **Price and Production**: The price of batteries and the production of battery cells show different trends over time. The monthly production of battery cells and the monthly loading volume of power batteries also change [53]. - **Inventory and Export**: The inventory of lithium battery cells and the export volume of lithium batteries also show different trends [53][56]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Price and Production**: The price of ternary precursors and the production capacity utilization rate show different trends. The monthly production of ternary precursors also changes [59]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors shows different values in different months. In July 2025, the balance was - 6,410 tons [62]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - **Price and Cost - Profit**: The price of ternary materials and the cost - profit trend show different situations. The weekly operating rate and inventory of ternary materials also change [65][67]. 3.11 Demand - Phosphoric Acid Iron/ Lithium Iron Phosphate - **Price and Production**: The price of phosphoric acid iron/lithium iron phosphate and the production capacity and production volume show different trends. The monthly production of phosphoric acid iron and lithium iron phosphate also changes [69][72]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory of lithium iron phosphate shows different trends [73]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - **Production, Sales, and Penetration Rate**: The production, sales, and sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles show different trends over time. The retail - wholesale ratio and dealer inventory index also change [77][78][81].
工业硅期货早报-20250804
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 03:45
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - For industrial silicon, supply increased last week, demand remained weak, costs in Xinjiang decreased during the wet season, and it is expected to oscillate between 8305 - 8695 [6]. - For polysilicon, supply is expected to increase in August, demand shows signs of decline but may rebound later, and it is expected to oscillate between 47790 - 50610 [9][11]. - The main logic for the market is that capacity mismatch leads to strong supply and weak demand, making the downward trend difficult to change [16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week's supply was 81,000 tons, a 3.85% week - on - week increase [6]. - Demand: Last week's demand was 70,000 tons, a 1.40% week - on - week decrease. Demand is persistently low [6]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passed 553 was 2354 yuan/ton, and cost support weakened during the wet season [6]. - Basis: On August 1st, the spot price of non - oxygenated silicon in East China was 9550 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 1050 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - Inventory: Social inventory was 540,000 tons, a 0.93% week - on - week increase; sample enterprise inventory was 171,450 tons, a 3.40% week - on - week decrease; major port inventory was 119,000 tons, a 0.83% week - on - week decrease [6]. - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the price of the 09 contract closed below MA20 [6]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, with an increase in short positions [6]. - Expectation: Supply production scheduling is decreasing and remains at a low level, demand recovery is at a low level, cost support is increasing, and it is expected to oscillate between 8305 - 8695 [6]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Supply: Last week's output was 26,500 tons, a 3.92% week - on - week increase. The scheduled production in August is expected to be 130,500 tons, a 22.76% increase compared to the previous month [9]. - Demand: Last week's silicon wafer output was 11GW, a 1.78% week - on - week decrease; inventory was 181,500 tons, a 1.56% week - on - week increase. Silicon wafer production is currently in a loss state. The scheduled production in August is 53.29GW, a 1.02% increase compared to the previous month [10]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 36,500 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 9500 yuan/ton [10]. - Basis: On August 1st, the price of N - type dense material was 46,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 2200 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [13]. - Inventory: Weekly inventory was 229,000 tons, a 5.76% week - on - week decrease, remaining at a high level compared to the same period in history [13]. - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the price of the 09 contract closed above MA20 [13]. - Main Position: The main position is net long, with a decrease in long positions [13]. - Expectation: Supply production scheduling continues to increase, demand shows signs of decline but may rebound later, cost support remains stable, and it is expected to oscillate between 47790 - 50610 [11]. 3.2 Market Overview 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - Futures prices of most contracts decreased, with the 09 contract down 2.97% week - on - week [19]. - Spot prices of some products remained stable, while the price of East China oxygen - passed 553 silicon decreased by 1.02% [19]. - Social inventory increased by 0.93% week - on - week, sample enterprise inventory decreased by 3.41% week - on - week, and major port inventory decreased by 0.83% week - on - week [19]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - Futures prices of some contracts decreased, and the prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained mostly stable [21]. - Weekly silicon wafer output increased by 5.74% week - on - week, and inventory decreased by 22.06% week - on - week [21]. - Monthly battery cell output increased by 1.90% month - on - month, and the export volume increased by 24.25% [21]. - Monthly component output increased by 1.73% month - on - month, and the export volume decreased by 8.44% [21]. 3.3 Other Aspects - Industrial silicon price - basis and delivery product price difference trends show historical price and basis changes [23]. - Industrial silicon inventory trends show the historical inventory changes of different regions and ports [27]. - Industrial silicon production and capacity utilization trends show the historical production and capacity utilization changes of sample enterprises [29]. - Industrial silicon component cost trends show the historical price changes of main production areas' electricity prices, silica prices, graphite electrodes, and some reducing agents [34]. - Industrial silicon cost - sample region trends show the historical cost and profit changes of 421 in Sichuan and Yunnan and oxygen - passed 553 in Xinjiang [37]. - Industrial silicon weekly and monthly supply - demand balance sheets show the historical supply, demand, import, export, and balance situations [38][41]. - Industrial silicon downstream - organic silicon trends show the production, price, import - export, and inventory trends of DMC and its downstream products [44]. - Industrial silicon downstream - aluminum alloy trends show the price, supply, inventory, production, and demand trends of aluminum alloys [52]. - Industrial silicon downstream - polysilicon trends show the cost, price, supply - demand balance, and trends of silicon wafers, battery cells, components, and other aspects of polysilicon [62]. - Industrial silicon downstream - polysilicon - component composition cost - profit trends (210mm) show the cost and profit trends of 210mm component compositions [80]. - Industrial silicon downstream - polysilicon - photovoltaic grid - connected power generation trends show the trends of new power generation capacity, power generation composition, and solar power generation [81].
大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20250801
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 02:24
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market shows a situation of supply exceeding demand, with the downward trend difficult to change due to capacity mismatch. The 2509 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 66,740 - 69,820. It is predicted that the demand will strengthen next month, inventory may be reduced, and the supply - surplus situation will intensify [8]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include manufacturers' production suspension and reduction plans, a month - on - month decrease in the amount of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of spodumene. Negative factors are the continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline, and insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [9][10]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Supply Side**: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 18,630 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.53%, higher than the historical average. The predicted production for next month is 81,150 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.57%, also higher than the historical average. The 6% spodumene CIF price decreased daily and is lower than the historical average [8]. - **Demand Side**: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 93,672 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.27%, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 16,552 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.40%. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month [8]. - **Cost Side**: The cost of imported spodumene concentrate is 68,893 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 0.87%, with a production profit of 2,075 yuan/ton; the cost of imported lepidolite is 76,215 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 0.75%, with a production loss of 7,136 yuan/ton. The cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, and the production scheduling enthusiasm is average. The salt lake end has sufficient profit margins and strong production scheduling motivation [8]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory is 143,170 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.39%, higher than the historical average. The smelter inventory is 55,385 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.57%, lower than the historical average; the downstream inventory is 42,815 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.74%, higher than the historical average [8]. - **Position**: The net short position of the main contract has decreased, showing a bearish signal [8]. - **Expected Market**: The import volume of lithium carbonate in June 2025 was 17,698 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 22,000 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.31%. The 2509 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 66,740 - 69,820 [8]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Market Overview**: The prices of most lithium - related products showed a downward trend. For example, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased from 72,950 yuan/ton to 72,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.30% [14]. - **Supply - Side Data**: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate decreased by 0.80% to 62.2%. The monthly production of lithium carbonate in June 2025 was 78,090 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.34%. The import volume of lithium concentrate decreased by 17.25% month - on - month [18]. - **Demand - Side Data**: The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 2.09% to 229,900 tons, and the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate lithium increased by 2.30% to 68,360 tons. The monthly power battery loading volume increased by 1.93% to 58,200 GWh [18].