1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand situation of lithium carbonate shows over - supply and weak demand due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change [8][9][10][13]. - It is expected that in the next month, the supply of lithium carbonate will increase, with the production volume forecasted to rise by 3.01% and the import volume by 10.00%, while the demand will strengthen and inventory may decrease [9]. - Lithium carbonate 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 71,280 - 73,280 [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 20,635 tons, a 0.58% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In September 2025, the production was 87,260 tons, and the forecast for next month is 89,890 tons, a 3.01% increase. The import volume in September was 20,000 tons, and the forecast for next month is 22,000 tons, a 10.00% increase [8][9]. - **Demand**: Last week, the inventory of the iron phosphate lithium sample enterprises was 101,848 tons, a 3.62% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of the ternary material sample enterprises was 17,849 tons, a 0.26% week - on - week decrease. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month [8][9]. - **Cost**: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 73,403 yuan/ton, a 0.90% day - on - day decrease, with a production loss of 1,368 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica is 76,101 yuan/ton, a 1.34% day - on - day decrease, with a production loss of 6,050 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, and the production enthusiasm is average. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,477 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [8]. - **Comprehensive Evaluation**: The fundamentals are neutral; the basis is bullish; the inventory is neutral; the disk is bearish; the main position is bearish [8][10]. - **Leveraging Factors**: Positive factors include manufacturers' production suspension and reduction plans, a week - on - week decrease in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of lithium spodumene. Negative factors include continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline, and insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [11][12]. 3.2 Carbonate Lithium Market Overview - **Price Changes**: The prices of various types of lithium carbonate, lithium ore, and related products showed different degrees of decline. For example, the battery - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 0.61% to 73,100 yuan/ton, and the lithium spodumene (6%) price decreased by 1.19% to 829 US dollars/ton [14]. - **Supply - Demand Data**: The weekly and monthly production, import, export, and inventory data of lithium carbonate showed different trends. For example, the monthly production increased, the monthly export decreased, and the total weekly inventory decreased by 1.48% to 134,801 tons [18]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Price and Production**: The price of lithium ore has fluctuated over the years, and the production of Chinese sample lithium spodumene mines and domestic lithium mica has also changed. For example, the production of Chinese sample lithium spodumene mines in 2025 showed different levels in different months [25]. - **Import and Self - Sufficiency Rate**: The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate has changed, and the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore has also fluctuated over time [25]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - **Production and Capacity**: The weekly and monthly production, capacity, and import volume of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, recycling) showed different trends. For example, the total weekly production of lithium carbonate showed an upward trend in some periods [31]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The monthly supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate showed different situations, with some months having a surplus and some having a deficit [37]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Capacity Utilization and Production**: The weekly capacity utilization rate and monthly production of lithium hydroxide from different sources (causticization, smelting) showed different trends. For example, the total monthly production of lithium hydroxide increased in some periods [40]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The monthly supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide showed different situations, with some months having a surplus and some having a deficit [42]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - **Cost and Profit of Different Materials**: The cost and profit of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide produced from different materials (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, recycled materials) showed different trends. For example, the production of lithium carbonate from purchased lithium spodumene and lithium mica was in a loss state [45]. - **Processing and Recycling Costs**: The processing costs of different materials and the cost - profit of recycling production also showed different trends [48]. 3.7 Inventory - **Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: The weekly and monthly inventory of lithium carbonate from different sources (smelter, downstream, other) showed different trends. For example, the total weekly inventory of lithium carbonate decreased [53]. - **Lithium Hydroxide Inventory**: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide from different sources (downstream, smelter) also showed different trends [53]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - **Production and Sales**: The monthly production, sales, and export volume of lithium batteries showed different trends. For example, the monthly production of power batteries increased [57]. - **Cost and Price**: The cost and price of lithium battery cells also showed different trends [57]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Price and Cost**: The price and cost of ternary precursors showed different trends. For example, the price of ternary precursors of different series showed different levels [62]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The monthly supply - demand balance of ternary precursors showed different situations, with some months having a surplus and some having a deficit [65]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - **Price and Cost - Profit**: The price and cost - profit of ternary materials showed different trends. For example, the price of ternary materials of different series showed different levels [68]. - **Production and Inventory**: The production and inventory of ternary materials also showed different trends [68]. 3.11 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - **Price and Cost - Profit**: The price and cost - profit of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium showed different trends. For example, the price of power - type iron phosphate lithium showed different levels [72]. - **Production and Inventory**: The production and inventory of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium also showed different trends [75]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - **Production, Sales, and Export**: The production, sales, and export volume of new energy vehicles showed different trends. For example, the production and sales of new energy vehicles increased [80]. - **Penetration Rate and Zero - Batch Ratio**: The sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles and the zero - batch ratio of hybrid and pure - electric vehicles also showed different trends [81][84].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The report analyzes the supply - demand situation of lithium carbonate and related lithium compounds. The overall supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate shows a state of capacity mismatch, resulting in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change. The price of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 71,740 - 73,860 yuan/ton for the 2511 contract. The main logic is that the supply of lithium carbonate is relatively high, while the demand growth is not strong enough, and the cost structure of different production methods also affects the production enthusiasm of enterprises [8][9][12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoint - Supply: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 20,516 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.75%, higher than the historical average. It is predicted that the production in September 2025 will be 86,730 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.75%. The import volume in August 2025 was 21,847 tons, and it is predicted that the import volume in September will be 19,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.74% [8][9]. - Demand: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 98,286 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.15%, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 17,896 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.00%. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced [8]. - Cost: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 75,407 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 0.03%, with a production loss of 2,927 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lithium mica is 78,268 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 0.58%, with a production loss of 7,776 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, and the production enthusiasm is average. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9]. - Other Factors: The fundamentals are neutral; on September 30, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,550 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 750 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish; the smelter inventory was 33,492 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.79%, lower than the historical average; the downstream inventory was 60,893 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.35%, higher than the historical average; the overall inventory was 136,825 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.51%, higher than the historical average, which is neutral; the main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [9]. 3.2 Lithium Ore Supply - Price: The price of 6% lithium spodumene is 858 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous value, with a change rate of 0.00%. The price of lithium mica concentrate (2% - 2.5%) is 1,855 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan from the previous value, with a decline rate of 1.07% [15]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The domestic lithium ore supply - demand balance shows different situations in different months. In general, the demand is relatively large, and the production and import volume together meet the demand, but there are still some months with a supply - demand gap [27]. 3.3 Lithium Carbonate Supply - Production: The production of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, recycling) shows different trends. For example, the monthly production of lithium carbonate from lithium spodumene was 356,750 tons in a certain period, a month - on - month increase of 12.75% [18]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate also varies by month. In some months, there is a surplus, while in others, there is a shortage. For example, in August 2025, the supply - demand balance was 2,695 tons, indicating a surplus [35]. 3.4 Lithium Hydroxide Supply - Production and Export: The production and export volume of lithium hydroxide have changed over time. The export volume in different months shows an upward or downward trend, and the production also fluctuates. For example, the production in August 2025 was 21,820 tons [38][40]. - Supply - Demand Balance: Similar to lithium carbonate, the supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide also shows different situations in different months, with some months having a surplus and others having a shortage [40]. 3.5 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - Different Production Methods: The cost - profit situations of different lithium compound production methods (such as purchased lithium spodumene, purchased lithium mica, recycling) are different. Some production methods are in a loss state, while others have certain profit margins. For example, the production from purchased lithium spodumene has a loss of 2,927 yuan/ton [9][43]. - Purification and Transformation: The profit situations of industrial - grade lithium carbonate purification and lithium hydroxide carbonation to lithium carbonate also change over time, which is affected by factors such as raw material prices and product prices [45][48]. 3.6 Inventory - Lithium Carbonate Inventory: The lithium carbonate inventory includes smelter inventory, downstream inventory, and other inventories. The smelter inventory was 33,492 tons last week, a week - on - week decrease of 2.79%, lower than the historical average; the downstream inventory was 60,893 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.35%, higher than the historical average; the overall inventory was 136,825 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.51%, higher than the historical average [9]. - Lithium Hydroxide Inventory: The inventory of lithium hydroxide also shows different trends in different periods, which is affected by production and demand [50]. 3.7 Demand - Lithium Battery: The production, sales, and export of lithium batteries show different trends. For example, the monthly production of power batteries in a certain period was 62,500 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 11.81% [18][54]. - New Energy Vehicles: The production, sales, and export of new energy vehicles also change over time. The sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles has shown an upward trend in recent years [78][79]. - Ternary Precursor and Ternary Material: The price, production, and supply - demand balance of ternary precursors and ternary materials are also analyzed in the report. The production of ternary precursors in a certain period was 76,159 tons, and the supply - demand balance also shows different situations in different months [59][62]. - Lithium Iron Phosphate: The price, production, and cost - profit of lithium iron phosphate and related products are also analyzed in the report. The production of lithium iron phosphate in a certain period shows an upward trend [70][73].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate is shifting towards demand - led. The price of lithium carbonate 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 72,820 - 75,020. The main logic is that capacity mismatch leads to strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [9][13]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include manufacturers' production cut plans, a decline in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile, and a decrease in the import volume of spodumene. Negative factors are the persistently high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline, and the insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply side: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 20,516 tons, a 0.75% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In August 2025, the production was 85,240 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 86,730 tons, a 1.75% month - on - month increase. The import volume in August 2025 was 21,847 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 19,500 tons, a 10.74% month - on - month decrease [8][9]. - Demand side: Last week, the inventory of sample lithium iron phosphate enterprises was 98,286 tons, a 2.15% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of sample ternary material enterprises was 17,896 tons, a 2.00% week - on - week increase. Next month's demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be reduced [8][9]. - Cost side: The CIF price of 6% concentrate increased on a daily basis, lower than the historical average. The cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate is 75,433 yuan/ton, a 0.02% daily increase, with a production loss of 2,953 yuan/ton; the cost of purchasing lithium mica is 78,729 yuan/ton, unchanged on a daily basis, with a production loss of 8,238 yuan/ton. The production cost at the recycling end is close to that at the ore end, with average production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost at the salt lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9][10]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Market Prices**: The prices of various lithium - related products such as spodumene, lithium mica concentrate, lithium iron phosphate, and lithium hexafluorophosphate showed different degrees of changes. For example, the price of spodumene (6%) increased by 0.12% to 858 US dollars/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.07% to 73,550 yuan/ton [14]. - **Supply - side Data**: The monthly production, import volume, and开工率 of lithium carbonate, lithium ore, and lithium hydroxide showed different trends. For example, the monthly production of lithium carbonate in August 2025 was 85,240 tons, and the predicted production for next month is 86,730 tons; the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate in August 2025 was 21,847 tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 19,500 tons [9][19]. - **Demand - side Data**: The demand for lithium - related products in the fields of lithium batteries, new energy vehicles, etc. showed an upward trend. For example, the monthly total loading volume of power batteries in August 2025 was 62,500 GWh, a 11.81% increase from the previous month; the production and sales volume of new energy vehicles also increased [19]. - **Inventory Data**: The overall inventory of lithium carbonate decreased slightly, with a 0.51% week - on - week decrease to 136,825 tons. The inventory of smelters decreased by 2.79% to 33,492 tons, while the downstream inventory increased by 2.35% to 60,893 tons [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is currently in a situation where supply exceeds demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change due to capacity mismatch. The lithium carbonate 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 71,800 - 73,960. In the future, demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be reduced. [8][9] - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include manufacturers' production suspension and reduction plans, a decline in the amount of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decrease in the import volume of spodumene. Negative factors include the continuous high supply at the ore and salt lake ends with limited decline, and the lack of willingness to purchase at the power battery end. [10][11] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 20,516 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.75%, higher than the historical average. In August 2025, the production was 85,240 tons, and it is predicted that next month's production will be 86,730 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.75%. The import volume in August was 21,847 tons, and it is predicted that next month's import will be 19,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.74%. [8][9] - Demand: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 98,286 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.15%, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 17,896 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.00%. It is expected that demand will strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced. [8][9] - Cost: The daily CIF price of 6% concentrate increased, lower than the historical average. The cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate is 75,418 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 0.12%, resulting in a loss of 2,888 yuan/ton; the cost of purchasing lithium mica is 78,729 yuan/ton, unchanged daily, resulting in a loss of 8,189 yuan/ton; the production cost at the recycling end is close to that at the ore end, with average production enthusiasm; the quarterly cash production cost at the salt lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that at the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation. [9] - Other indicators: The fundamentals are neutral; on September 26, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,600 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 720 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is neutral; the overall inventory is 136,825 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.51%, higher than the historical average, which is neutral; the MA20 of the disk is downward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20, which is bearish; the net position of the main players is short, and the short position decreased, which is bearish. [9] 3.2 Market Overview - The prices of most lithium - related products showed a downward trend. For example, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased from 73,750 yuan/ton to 73,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.20%. [14] 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - Price: The price of 6% spodumene increased from 856 US dollars/ton to 857 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.12%. [14] - Production: The monthly production of lithium ore showed an increasing trend. For example, the monthly production of lithium ore in some months increased by 4.96% - 8.84%. [17] - Import: The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate decreased by 18.32%, and the import volume from Australia decreased by 50.47%. [17] - Supply - demand balance: The domestic lithium ore supply - demand balance showed a tight situation in some months, with demand exceeding production and import in some periods. [26] 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - Production: The weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate showed different trends. The weekly production of some raw materials increased, and the monthly production also showed an overall increasing trend in some months. [17][29] - Import: The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate increased by 57.79%, and the import volume from Chile increased by 81.83%. [17] - Supply - demand balance: The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate fluctuated. In some months, there was a surplus, while in others, there was a shortage. [34] 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - Production: The weekly capacity utilization rate and monthly production of lithium hydroxide showed different trends in different periods. [37] - Export: The export volume of lithium hydroxide showed a certain degree of change, with a decrease in some months. [37] - Supply - demand balance: The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide also fluctuated, with surpluses and shortages in different months. [39] 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost and Profit - The cost and profit of different lithium compounds, such as spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, and imported lithium carbonate, showed different trends. For example, the production of spodumene concentrate and lithium mica concentrate resulted in losses, while the salt lake end had sufficient profit margins. [9][42] 3.7 Inventory - The inventory of lithium carbonate includes smelter inventory, downstream inventory, and other inventories. The overall inventory decreased slightly week - on - week, but was still higher than the historical average. [9] 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - Price: The price of lithium batteries showed a certain degree of stability, with some products remaining unchanged. [14] - Production and sales: The monthly production, shipment volume, and export volume of lithium batteries showed different trends in different periods. [53] 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - Price: The price of ternary precursors showed different trends for different types, with some increasing and some remaining stable. [59] - Cost and profit: The cost and profit of ternary precursors also showed different situations, with some products having profits and some having losses. [59] - Supply - demand balance: The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors fluctuated, with surpluses and shortages in different months. [62] 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - Price: The price of ternary materials showed different trends for different types, with some increasing and some remaining stable. [65] - Cost and profit: The cost and profit of ternary materials also showed different situations, with some products having profits and some having losses. [65] - Inventory: The weekly inventory of ternary materials showed a certain degree of change. [68] 3.11 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - Price: The price of iron phosphate/iron phosphate lithium showed different trends, with some increasing and some remaining stable. [71] - Cost and profit: The cost and profit of iron phosphate lithium also showed different situations, with some products having profits and some having losses. [71] - Production and inventory: The monthly production and weekly inventory of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium showed different trends. [74][76] 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - Production, sales, and export: The production, sales, and export volume of new energy vehicles showed an overall increasing trend, and the sales penetration rate also showed an upward trend. [79][80] - Other indicators: The zero - batch ratio, inventory warning index, and inventory index of new energy vehicles showed different trends in different periods. [83]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The report analyzes the market conditions of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures. For industrial silicon, supply production scheduling has increased, demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has risen. The 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 8920 - 9190. For polysilicon, supply production scheduling continues to decrease, overall demand shows a decline but may rebound later, and cost support remains stable. The 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 50430 - 52300 [6][8]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include cost - upward support and manufacturers' plans to stop or reduce production. Negative factors include slow post - holiday demand recovery and a situation of strong supply and weak demand in the downstream polysilicon market [10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily View - Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week, the supply of industrial silicon was 92,000 tons, a 2.22% increase from the previous week [6]. - **Demand**: Last week, the demand for industrial silicon was 80,000 tons, a 2.56% increase from the previous week, indicating a rise in demand [6]. - **Inventory**: Crystalline silicon inventory is 204,000 tons, at a low level; silicone inventory is 73,200 tons, at a high level; aluminum alloy ingot inventory is 71,400 tons, at a high level. Social inventory increased by 0.74% week - on - week, sample enterprise inventory decreased by 7.11% week - on - week, and major port inventory increased by 0.84% week - on - week [6]. - **Cost**: In the Xinjiang region, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 3,050 yuan/ton, and the cost support during the wet season has weakened [6]. - **Price and Basis**: On September 25th, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9,300 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 245 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price [6]. - **Market Indicators**: The MA20 of the disk is upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed above the MA20. The net short position of the main contract decreased [6]. - **Expectation**: Supply production scheduling has increased and is near the historical average level, demand recovery is at a low level, cost support has risen, and the 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 8920 - 9190 [6]. 3.2 Daily View - Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week, the production of polysilicon was 31,000 tons, a 0.64% decrease from the previous week. The scheduled production for September is expected to be 126,700 tons, a 36.53% increase from the previous month [8]. - **Demand**: Last week, the production of silicon wafers was 13.78 GW, a 1.00% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory was 162,300 tons, a 3.79% decrease from the previous week. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The production of battery cells and components has increased [8]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory is 204,000 tons, a 6.84% decrease from the previous week, and it is at a low level compared to the same period in history [8]. - **Cost and Profit**: The average industry cost of polysilicon N - type material is 36,150 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 14,900 yuan/ton [8]. - **Price and Basis**: On September 25th, the price of N - type dense material was 51,050 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 1,185 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price [8]. - **Market Indicators**: The MA20 of the disk is upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20. The net long position of the main contract increased [8]. - **Expectation**: Supply production scheduling continues to decrease, overall demand shows a decline but may rebound later, cost support remains stable, and the 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 50430 - 52300 [8]. 3.3 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Overview - **Industrial Silicon**: The prices of most futures contracts increased slightly, and the social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and major port inventory showed different trends of increase or decrease. The production and cost - profit indicators of organic silicon and aluminum alloy also changed to some extent [14]. - **Polysilicon**: The prices of most futures contracts decreased slightly, the production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components showed different trends, and the inventory decreased [16]. 3.4 Other Aspects - **Price and Basis Trends**: The report shows the price - basis and delivery product price difference trends of industrial silicon, as well as the price trends of polysilicon disks [18][22]. - **Inventory Trends**: It presents the inventory trends of industrial silicon, including delivery warehouses, ports, and sample enterprises, as well as the inventory trends of polysilicon [25][16]. - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The production and capacity utilization trends of industrial silicon sample enterprises are shown, including the production of different regions and specifications [26]. - **Cost Trends**: The cost - profit trends of industrial silicon in sample regions are presented, including Sichuan, Yunnan, and Xinjiang [33]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables of industrial silicon are provided, showing the production, import, export, consumption, and balance of different types of silicon [35][38]. - **Downstream Market**: The market conditions of industrial silicon downstream industries, including organic silicon, aluminum alloy, and polysilicon, are analyzed, covering aspects such as price, production, inventory, and import - export [41][51][59].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures. For industrial silicon, the supply is expected to increase, demand recovery is slow, and the price is predicted to fluctuate between 8775 - 9035. For polysilicon, the supply is expected to be stable in the medium - term, demand is gradually recovering, and the price is predicted to fluctuate between 52285 - 54125 [6][8][10]. - The main logic for the market is that the mismatch between production capacity leads to an oversupply situation, and the downward trend is difficult to change. There are also factors such as cost support and inventory levels affecting the market [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily View - Industrial Silicon - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the supply was 90,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week. The demand was 78,000 tons, a 3.70% decrease. The inventory of polysilicon, silicone, and aluminum alloy ingots is at different levels, with silicone and aluminum alloy ingots at high levels [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Bearish. The cost support in Xinjiang has weakened during the wet season, with a production loss of 3237 yuan/ton for sample oxygen - passing 553 [6]. - **Basis**: On September 18, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9100 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 195 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and major port inventory all increased, which is bearish [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed above the MA20, which is bullish [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position decreased, which is bearish [8]. - **Expectation**: The supply schedule is increasing, demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support is rising. The price of industrial silicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate between 8775 - 9035 [8]. 3.2 Daily View - Polysilicon - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the production was 31,200 tons, a 3.31% increase. The demand side shows that the production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components has different changes, and the current production of silicon wafers is in a loss state [10]. - **Fundamentals**: Neutral. Although the production is increasing, it is currently in a loss state [10]. - **Basis**: On September 18, the basis of the 11 - contract was - 605 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish [10]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory is 219,000 tons, a 3.79% increase, at a low level in the same period, which is neutral [10]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed above the MA20, which is bullish [10]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, and the long position increased, which is bullish [10]. - **Expectation**: The supply schedule will decrease in the short - term and recover in the medium - term. Demand is gradually recovering, and cost support is stable. The price of polysilicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate between 52285 - 54125 [10]. 3.3 Market Overview - **Industrial Silicon**: Futures prices of most contracts decreased, and spot prices remained unchanged. Inventory increased, and production and some regions' operating rates also changed [16]. - **Polysilicon**: Futures prices of most contracts decreased. The production and inventory of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components changed, and the export of photovoltaic cells increased [18]. 3.4 Price and Basis Trends - **Industrial Silicon**: The report shows the trends of the basis and the price difference between 421 and 553 silicon [20]. - **Polysilicon**: It shows the trends of the disk price and the basis of the main contract [23]. 3.5 Inventory, Production, and Capacity Utilization - **Industrial Silicon**: Inventory in various regions and warehouses increased. The production and operating rates of sample enterprises in different regions also changed [16][26][28]. - **Polysilicon**: The total inventory increased, and the production and operating rates of related products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components also changed [10][18]. 3.6 Cost Trends - **Industrial Silicon**: The cost and profit trends of 421 silicon in Sichuan and Yunnan and oxygen - passing 553 silicon in Xinjiang are presented [34]. - **Polysilicon**: The cost trend of the polysilicon industry is shown [62]. 3.7 Supply - Demand Balance - **Industrial Silicon**: The weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables show the production, import, export, consumption, and balance of industrial silicon [36][39]. - **Polysilicon**: The monthly supply - demand balance table shows the supply, import, export, consumption, and balance of polysilicon [65]. 3.8 Downstream Market Analysis - **Organic Silicon**: Analyzes the price, production, import - export, and inventory trends of DMC and its downstream products [42][44][49]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Analyzes the price, supply, inventory, production, and demand trends of aluminum alloy [52][55][57]. - **Polysilicon Downstream**: Analyzes the cost, price, production, inventory, and supply - demand balance trends of silicon wafers, battery cells, components, and related accessories in the polysilicon downstream industry [62][68][71].

Core Viewpoint - The polyester industry is experiencing an unusual pricing cycle characterized by "off-season price increases and peak-season promotions," deviating from the traditional pattern of "off-season promotions and peak-season price increases" [1][4]. Group 1: Pricing Dynamics - In September 2025, polyester factories saw an average sales rate of 186.4% for polyester filament, with some factories reaching as high as 400% due to strong promotional policies [1]. - The price of PTA increased by 18% in a single month during the off-season due to maintenance shutdowns of several domestic PTA facilities, leading to a rise in polyester product prices [3]. - The market is witnessing a structural mismatch in capacity, where companies over-expand during peak seasons, resulting in excess supply, while reducing production during off-seasons due to inventory concerns, creating conditions for price increases [3][5]. Group 2: Market Expectations and Demand - The disconnect between market expectations and actual demand is a core reason for the current pricing anomaly, with external factors like geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices pushing up raw material costs [4][5]. - The cautious purchasing behavior of downstream weaving enterprises has led to a situation where they prefer "just-in-time" procurement rather than stockpiling, increasing uncertainty in production plans [7][9]. - The phenomenon of "off-season price increases" reflects a strong demand that exceeds expectations, driven by factors such as "export grabbing" [3][4]. Group 3: Industry Challenges - The frequent price fluctuations disrupt normal production schedules and hinder the establishment of a stable pricing system, leading to a vicious cycle of "wait-and-see—demand—shrinkage—promotion—more waiting" [7][9]. - The profit distribution within the polyester industry is severely imbalanced, with upstream raw material producers benefiting from price increases while polyester manufacturers struggle with low margins [9][10]. - Small and medium-sized enterprises face significant challenges due to their limited ability to withstand price wars and cash flow pressures, exacerbated by the current pricing dynamics [10][11]. Group 4: Solutions and Future Outlook - Industry experts suggest that breaking the current pricing cycle requires rebuilding trust between upstream and downstream players, moving from a "zero-sum game" mentality to a collaborative ecosystem [11][12]. - Addressing structural overcapacity on the supply side and actively exploring new market demands on the demand side are crucial for stabilizing the industry [12][13]. - The focus should shift from price competition to value competition, emphasizing technological innovation and optimizing capacity structures to escape reliance on promotions [12][13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand imbalance in the lithium carbonate market persists, with over - supply and relatively weak demand. The downward trend is difficult to reverse due to capacity mismatch. Lithium carbonate 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 72320 - 74960 [8][9][13]. - The cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate has increased, resulting in losses in production. The cost of purchasing lithium mica remains unchanged, also with losses. The production cost at the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm. The cash production cost at the salt - lake end is significantly lower, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - **Supply Side**: Last week, the lithium carbonate output was 19,963 tons, a 2.80% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In August 2025, the output was 85,240 physical tons, and the predicted output for next month is 86,730 tons, a 1.75% increase. The import volume in August was 17,000 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 19,500 tons, a 14.71% increase [8][9]. - **Demand Side**: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 95,442 tons, a 0.72% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 17,529 tons, a 0.65% week - on - week decrease. Next month's demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be reduced [8][9]. - **Cost Side**: The daily CIF price of 6% concentrate increased week - on - week, lower than the historical average. The cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate was 75,311 yuan/ton, a 0.33% day - on - day increase, resulting in a loss of 3,227 yuan/ton. The cost of purchasing lithium mica was 77,345 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day, resulting in a loss of 7,245 yuan/ton [9][10]. - **Market Outlook**: Lithium carbonate 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 72320 - 74960 [9]. - **Likely Positive Factors**: Manufacturers' plans to halt or reduce production, a month - on - month decrease in the amount of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of lithium spodumene [11]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: High - level supply at the ore/salt - lake end with limited decline, and insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [12]. - **Main Logic**: Capacity mismatch leads to strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [13]. 3.2 Carbonate Lithium Market Overview - **Price Changes**: The prices of most lithium - related products increased slightly. For example, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.41% to 73,150 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.42% to 70,900 yuan/ton [16]. - **Supply - Side Data**: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 66.41%. The monthly output of lithium carbonate in August 2025 was 85,240 tons, a 4.55% increase from the previous month. The import volume decreased by 21.77% to 13,845.31 tons [19]. - **Demand - Side Data**: The monthly output of lithium iron phosphate increased by 4.96% to 264,720 tons, and the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate increased by 8.84% to 316,400 tons. The monthly power battery loading volume increased by 11.81% to 62,500 GWh [19]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Price and Production**: The price of lithium ore showed a certain upward trend, and the production of lithium spodumene and lithium mica mines also had corresponding changes. The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate increased significantly by 34.73% to 576,138 tons [26]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: There was a supply - demand imbalance in the domestic lithium ore market, with shortages in most months [29]. 3.4 Supply - Carbonate Lithium - **Production and Capacity**: The weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate showed an upward trend, and the production capacity also increased. The monthly output in August 2025 was 85,240 tons [32]. - **Import and Export**: The import volume decreased, and the export volume was relatively small. The monthly import volume in August was 17,000 tons [32][39]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: There was a supply - demand imbalance in the lithium carbonate market, with shortages in some months [39]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Production and Capacity**: The production of lithium hydroxide decreased, and the operating rate also declined. The monthly output in August 2025 was 21,820 tons, a 13.31% decrease from the previous month [19]. - **Export and Import**: The export volume decreased significantly, and the import volume was relatively small [42]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: There was a supply - demand imbalance in the lithium hydroxide market, with shortages in some months [45]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - **Cost and Profit of Different Raw Materials**: The cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica was relatively high, resulting in losses in production. The cost - profit situation of different recycling materials also varied [48][50]. - **Processing Cost and Profit**: The processing costs of lithium mica and lithium spodumene increased, and the profit of lithium carbonate purification and other processing links also changed [48][50]. 3.7 Inventory - **Carbonate Lithium Inventory**: The overall inventory of lithium carbonate decreased slightly, with a 1.12% week - on - week decrease to 138,512 tons. The inventory of smelters decreased, while the inventory of downstream and other parties increased [10]. - **Lithium Hydroxide Inventory**: The inventory of lithium hydroxide also showed certain changes, with the monthly inventory of downstream and smelters having corresponding fluctuations [55]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - **Battery Price and Cost**: The prices of some lithium batteries increased slightly, and the cost of battery cells also changed [59]. - **Production and Sales**: The monthly output and sales volume of lithium batteries increased, and the export volume also showed an upward trend [59]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of lithium battery cells showed different trends for different types of batteries [61]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Price and Cost**: The price of ternary precursors showed certain fluctuations, and the cost - profit situation also changed. The profit of the 5 - series (polycrystalline/consumer - type) ternary precursor decreased [64]. - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The monthly output of ternary precursors increased, and the capacity utilization rate also showed corresponding changes [64]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: There was a supply - demand imbalance in the ternary precursor market, with shortages in some months [67]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - **Price and Cost - Profit**: The price of ternary materials showed certain fluctuations, and the cost - profit situation also changed. The profit of the 5 - series (polycrystalline/consumer - type) ternary material decreased [70]. - **Production and Export - Import**: The production of ternary materials increased, and the export and import volumes also had corresponding changes [70][72]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory of ternary materials showed certain fluctuations [72]. 3.11 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - **Price and Cost - Profit**: The price of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium showed certain fluctuations, and the cost - profit situation also changed. The profit of iron phosphate lithium increased [74]. - **Production and Export**: The monthly output of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium increased, and the export volume of iron phosphate lithium also increased significantly [74][77]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory of iron phosphate lithium showed certain fluctuations [79]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - **Production, Sales, and Export**: The production, sales, and export volumes of new energy vehicles increased. The sales volume in August 2025 was 1.262 million vehicles, a 11.91% increase from the previous month [19][82]. - **Penetration Rate**: The sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles continued to increase [83].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand mismatch leads to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [14] - Lithium carbonate 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 69,580 - 72,420 [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 19,419 tons, a 2.04% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In August 2025, the production was 85,240 tons, and the predicted production for next month is 86,730 tons, a 1.75% increase. The import volume in August was 17,000 tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 19,500 tons, a 14.71% increase [8][10] - Demand: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 94,756 tons, a 0.28% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 17,644 tons, a 1.05% week - on - week decrease. Next month's demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be reduced [8][10] - Cost: The cost of外购锂辉石精矿 is 73,549 yuan/ton, a 0.46% daily decrease, resulting in a loss of 1,761 yuan/ton. The cost of外购锂云母 is 77,368 yuan/ton, a 0.44% daily decrease, resulting in a loss of 7,563 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is generally higher than that of the ore end, with negative production income and low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end, with sufficient profit space and strong production motivation [9] - Other factors: On September 11, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 72,850 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 1,850 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. The overall inventory was 140,092 tons, a 0.73% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average. The MA20 of the disk is downward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20. The net position of the main force is short, and the short position increased [10][11] -利多 factors: Manufacturers' production cut and shutdown plans, a month - on - month decrease in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of lithium spodumene [12] -利空 factors: The supply at the ore/salt lake end remains at a high level with limited decline, and the willingness of the power battery end to take delivery is insufficient [13] 3.2 Fundamentals/Position Data - **Market Data Overview**: The table shows the changes in prices, basis, and upstream prices of lithium - related products such as lithium ore, lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide. For example, the price of lithium ore (6%) decreased by 0.59%, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.82% [15] - **Supply - side Data**: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate was 66.41% with no change. The daily production cost of lithium spodumene decreased by 0.46%, and the monthly processing cost increased by 4.49%. The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 4.96%, and the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 8.84% [19] - **Demand - side Data**: The monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate increased by 3.39%, and the monthly production increased by 4.96%. The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 8.84%, and the monthly export increased by 34.94% [19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply-side production scheduling has increased and is near the historical average level, while demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has slightly increased. It is expected to fluctuate between 8330 - 8610 [3]. - For polycrystalline silicon, the short - term supply - side production scheduling will decrease, but it is expected to recover in the medium term. The demand side shows continuous recovery, and cost support has strengthened. It is expected to fluctuate between 50780 - 52970 [8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Views Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week's supply was 90,000 tons, a 2.27% week - on - week increase [3]. - Demand: Last week's demand was 82,000 tons, a 3.80% week - on - week increase [3]. - Inventory: Silicon inventory is 213,000 tons (low), organic silicon inventory is 73,200 tons (high), and aluminum alloy ingot inventory is 54,600 tons (high) [3]. - Cost: The production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang is 3254 yuan/ton, and the cost support in the wet season has weakened [3]. - Basis: On September 2nd, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing in East China was 8950 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 480 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [3]. - Inventory: The social inventory decreased by 0.36% week - on - week, the sample enterprise inventory decreased, and the main port inventory increased by 1.71% week - on - week [3]. - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed below MA20 [3]. - Main Position: The net position of the main players is short, and the short position has decreased [3]. Polycrystalline Silicon - Supply: Last week's output was 31,000 tons, a 6.52% week - on - week increase. The planned output in September is 126,700 tons, a 3.79% decrease from the previous month [8]. - Demand: Last week's silicon wafer output was 13.31GW, an 8.29% week - on - week increase; the battery cell output in August was 58.27GW, a 0.13% month - on - month increase; the component output in August was 49.2GW, a 4.45% month - on - month increase [9]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polycrystalline silicon is 35,620 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 14,380 yuan/ton [9]. - Basis: On September 2nd, the price of N - type dense material was 50,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 375 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [9]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory decreased by 14.45% week - on - week and is at a historical low [9]. - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed above MA20 [9]. - Main Position: The net position of the main players is long, and the long position has decreased [9]. 3.2 Market Overview Industrial Silicon - Futures prices of different contracts showed various changes, with some contracts rising and some falling [15]. - Spot prices of different types of silicon in East China had different changes, with some remaining stable and some rising slightly [15]. - Inventory: Social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and main port inventory had different trends of increase or decrease [15]. Polycrystalline Silicon - Prices of different types of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components showed various changes, with some rising, some remaining stable, and some falling [17]. - Inventory: Silicon wafer inventory, battery cell inventory, and component inventory had different trends of increase or decrease [17]. 3.3 Other Aspects - Industrial silicon price - basis and delivery product price difference trends are presented through historical data charts [19]. - Industrial silicon inventory trends of different regions and overall inventory are shown through historical data charts [22]. - Industrial silicon production and capacity utilization trends of different regions and overall are presented through historical data charts [26]. - Industrial silicon cost trends of different sample regions are shown through historical data charts [32]. - Industrial silicon weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables show the production, import, export, consumption, and balance of different periods [34][37]. - For the downstream of industrial silicon: - Organic silicon: DMC production, price, cost, profit, import - export, and inventory trends are presented through historical data charts [40]. - Aluminum alloy: Price, supply, inventory, production, and demand (automobile and wheel hub) trends are shown through historical data charts [49]. - Polycrystalline silicon: Cost, price, inventory, production, and supply - demand balance trends of different links (silicon wafer, battery cell, photovoltaic component) are presented through historical data charts [57].