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产销率仍在同期新低——3月工业企业利润数据解读【陈兴团队·财通宏观】
陈兴宏观研究· 2025-04-27 08:08
利润增速有所回升,但改善基础有待夯实。 3月利润增速录得2.6%,较上月上行约3个百分点,主因基数走低 推动,环比增速也低于近五年中位数,结合工企产销率续创历年同期新低,指向利润改善基础有待夯实。 分 企业类型来看 ,私营和股份制企业利润改善明显,国企和外商企业均有回落。 从两年平均增速来看 ,仅私营 报 告 正 文 3 月收入、利润增速双双回升。 2025 年 3 月,规上工企营业收入录得 4.2% ,较上月有所回升。工企利 润增速录得 2.6% ,较上月上行约 3 个百分点,主因基数走低推动,环比增速也低于近五年中位数,结 合工企产销率续创历年同期新低,指向利润改善基础有待夯实。从 工企利润 的构成 来看, 3 月工企的 营收增速有所回升,主因当月 生产大幅改善 。 同时 营收利润率 增速略有上升,共同带动 本月利润增速 上行 。本月成本费用较上月微升, 利润率增速上行或受到春节前置的一定扰动。 往后看 , 随着外部冲 击影响逐渐显现,叠加去年同期基数走高 , 利润或将再度承压 , 静待稳增长政策进一步加码显效 。 此外,有三点值得关注。 一是企业经营压力仍较高 。工企产销率续创近十年来同期新低,而同时其 ...
工企产销率创同期新低——1-2月工业企业利润数据解读【财通宏观•陈兴团队】
陈兴宏观研究· 2025-03-27 09:40
Core Viewpoint - The industrial enterprises' revenue and profit growth rates have both declined in the first two months of 2025, indicating a deterioration in profitability and operational pressure on companies [1][7][14]. Revenue and Profit Growth - In January-February 2025, the revenue of industrial enterprises grew by 2.8%, a decrease from the previous month [1][9]. - Profit growth recorded a decline of -0.3%, dropping over 10 percentage points compared to the previous month, with a two-year average growth rate also showing a downturn [1][7]. Production and Sales Performance - The production and sales rate of industrial enterprises reached a ten-year low for the same period, influenced by the early Spring Festival holiday [3][14]. - The asset-liability ratio of enterprises hit a ten-year high, indicating increased operational pressure [3][14]. Inventory Trends - The nominal inventory growth rate increased to 4.2%, while the actual inventory growth rate rose to 6.5%, reflecting a recovery in inventory levels [5][14]. - Certain midstream manufacturing and downstream consumer goods industries are still in the process of restocking, while industries like paper, chemicals, and synthetic fibers are actively reducing inventory [5][8]. Industry-Specific Insights - The consumer goods sector, particularly in automotive and home appliances, showed significant improvement, driven by government policies such as vehicle replacement subsidies [8][9]. - The mining industry experienced a substantial decline in profit growth, while the raw materials sector continued to recover, and consumer goods industries saw notable profit increases [7][8]. Cost and Profit Margin Analysis - The cost per 100 yuan of revenue for industrial enterprises was 85.11 yuan, with expenses at 8.56 yuan, showing a slight decrease from the previous month [9]. - The revenue profit margin for industrial enterprises fell to 4.53%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, influenced by seasonal factors [9].