Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in oil prices is attributed to multiple factors in both international and domestic markets, leading to expected reductions in gasoline and diesel prices in China [2][3]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - As of October 21, the oil price change rate has dropped to -7.93%, with anticipated reductions of 320 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel, translating to a decrease of 0.24 to 0.27 yuan per liter [1]. - Following the price adjustments, the average price of 92-octane gasoline is expected to fall from 7.04 yuan per liter to a range of 6.77 to 6.80 yuan per liter [3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global oil market is currently experiencing a surplus, with OPEC+ increasing production and major oil-exporting countries maintaining high export levels, contributing to a supply-demand imbalance [3][4]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has consistently downgraded its forecasts for global oil demand growth, reflecting a more conservative outlook due to anticipated economic slowdowns [3]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and sanctions on Iran, their impact on oil prices has diminished as market supply has increased, leading to a return to fundamental pricing [5][7]. - The end of the peak oil consumption season in the Northern Hemisphere has raised concerns about future demand, with expectations of a decline in global oil demand by 500,000 barrels per day in the fourth quarter [7].

Core Viewpoint - The overall sentiment in the commodity market is warming, with most products closing higher on October 16, driven by policy expectations and market dynamics [1][3]. Group 1: Commodity Performance - Polysilicon continues to rise strongly by 3.48%, leading the commodity market, supported by positive policy expectations [1][3]. - Other commodities such as coking coal, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and butadiene rubber also saw gains of over 2% to 3% [1][3]. - The China Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1479.17 points, up 0.67%, while the China Commodity Futures Index closed at 2041.35 points, up 0.66% [1]. Group 2: Polysilicon Market Dynamics - Despite being in a supply surplus situation, the polysilicon market is buoyed by rumors of upcoming regulatory measures to strengthen photovoltaic capacity control, leading to a bullish sentiment [3]. - The market has experienced a four-day consecutive rise, although recent reports suggest that rumors about a polysilicon storage platform may be unfounded, potentially impacting market sentiment [3]. Group 3: LPG Market Insights - LPG has shown signs of stabilization, with a daily increase of 3.07% on October 16, supported by expectations of rising international CP prices and decreasing domestic inventories [4]. - The inventory of liquefied gas at Chinese ports decreased by 8.95 million tons to 3.1804 million tons, indicating a smooth destocking process [4]. Group 4: Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal and coke prices rose, with coking coal gaining over 3% and coke over 2%, supported by high iron water production and good spot transaction performance [4]. - However, concerns about steel mill profitability and demand for steel may limit upward momentum in coking coal prices [4]. Group 5: Shipping and Pork Market Trends - The shipping index for Europe fell by 3.64%, leading the market decline, as profit-taking emerged after three days of gains [5]. - The pork market remains under pressure from oversupply, with the new main contract dropping 3.21% and breaking below the 12,000 yuan/ton mark [6]. - Despite some signs of stabilization in pork prices, the overall market sentiment remains weak due to increasing supply and slow capacity reduction [6]. Group 6: Other Commodities - Apple futures saw a decline of nearly 2%, reaching a new low for the month [7].

Core Viewpoint - The international oil market has experienced significant volatility in October, with Brent crude futures dropping to a low of $61.5 per barrel and WTI crude futures falling below $58 per barrel, marking a decline of over 5% for the month [1][2] Market Dynamics - Short-term fluctuations in oil prices are heavily influenced by macroeconomic sentiment, with recent geopolitical developments and trade uncertainties contributing to market instability [2][3] - The global economy is showing signs of weak recovery without entering a recession, and the Federal Reserve's preventive rate cuts are providing some liquidity support to the oil market, but this is insufficient to counteract the bearish fundamentals [1][2] Supply and Demand Factors - The oil market is facing increasing pressure from both supply and demand sides, with OPEC+ continuing to increase production while demand is experiencing seasonal declines, leading to a supply surplus [1][4] - The recent ceasefire agreement in Gaza has reduced geopolitical risk support for oil prices, while ongoing uncertainties in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Venezuela still pose potential risks [3][4] Price Support Levels - Analysts suggest that Brent crude futures are currently in a low range of $60 to $65 per barrel, with a critical support level around $60 per barrel, which corresponds to the marginal cost of U.S. shale oil production [4][5] - A potential scenario of a cold winter in Europe combined with renewed conflicts in the Middle East could push Brent crude prices above $72 per barrel [4][5] Future Outlook - The supply side will remain the dominant factor in oil pricing, with OPEC+ maintaining its production increase policy, although actual increments may not meet targets, which could weaken market impacts [5] - The expectation of a supply surplus persists, with Brent crude futures anticipated to fluctuate between $60 and $75 per barrel unless significant geopolitical disruptions occur [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Information - Report Date: October 9, 2025 [1] - Report Cycle: Daily [1] - Research Variety: Live Hogs [1] - Researcher: Qi Jianhua [1] 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 3. Core View - After the National Day holiday, the prices of live hog futures and spot have weakened synchronously. The short - term bearish sentiment remains dominant, and the price of the lh2511 contract of live hog futures is likely to continue a low - level, volatile, and weak trend [15] 4. Section Summaries 4.1 Futures Market - **Contract Quotes**: On October 9, 2025, the lh2511 contract of live hog futures opened and closed lower, closing at 11,595 points, a 5.88% drop from the previous trading day. The daily trading volume was 50,900 lots, and the open interest was 58,300 lots [2] - **Variety Prices**: All contracts of live hog futures declined. The total open interest of the variety was 258,813 lots, an increase of 15,400 lots from the previous trading day [4] - **Related Quotes**: The daily trading volume of live hog options was 48,658 lots, the total open interest was 67,393 lots (an increase of 5,694 lots), and the total number of exercised options on the day was 503 lots [7] 4.2 Spot Market - **Basis Data**: The basis of live hogs on the previous trading day was - 130 yuan/ton, and today it is 95 yuan/ton, an increase of 225 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, indicating a strengthening basis [8][9] - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: According to the warehouse receipt daily report of the Dalian Commodity Exchange, the number of registered warehouse receipts today is 0 lots, with no change from the previous trading day [10] 4.3 Influencing Factors - **Industry News**: In September, large - scale enterprises faced significant pressure to sell their hogs, and the market supply exceeded demand. Many enterprises failed to meet their targets, and some postponed sales to October. Based on production cycles and previous piglet stocking, the planned hog sales volume of large - scale enterprises in October increased compared to the actual sales volume in September. The average daily planned sales volume increased month - on - month. The planned hog sales volume of key provincial breeding enterprises in October was 13.3933 million heads, a 5.48% month - on - month increase. The increase in Shanxi was the most significant, exceeding 16% [11] - **Technical Analysis**: All short - term, medium - term, and long - term moving averages of the lh2511 contract of live hog futures are in a bearish arrangement. The closing price today is far below all moving averages, indicating that the bears are currently in control [12]

Core Insights - The average price of eggs in major production areas remains stable or shows a slight decline, indicating a softening market trend [1][2][3] - The futures market reflects a downward trend in egg prices, with a notable drop in the main contract [2][3] - High production capacity and seasonal demand fluctuations are key factors influencing the egg market [3][4] Price Overview - Shandong: 5.73 CNY/kg, unchanged from the previous day [1] - Hebei: 6.00 CNY/kg, down 0.40 CNY [1] - Guangdong: 6.67 CNY/kg, down 0.20 CNY [1] - Beijing: 6.20 CNY/kg, down 0.20 CNY [1] - Futures market: Main contract at 2806.00 CNY/500kg, down 2.26% [2] Market Dynamics - Egg production remains high, with a significant number of hens still in production and older hens not being culled [3] - Seasonal demand is expected to weaken post-holiday, leading to a continued oversupply situation [3][4] - The age of hens being culled has decreased but remains above levels seen in previous downturns, suggesting ongoing supply pressures [4]

Group 1 - Since Q4 2021, domestic housing prices have shown a turning point, leading to a shift in market expectations for the real estate sector, with continuous declines in housing transaction data and shrinking terminal demand for PVC, resulting in a downward price trend [1] - Current PVC prices are low, with domestic calcium carbide method PVC losing 750 CNY/ton and ethylene method PVC losing 650 CNY/ton, indicating deep industry losses. However, the production profit from caustic soda is 330 CNY/ton, allowing calcium carbide method PVC enterprises to maintain production [1] - As of September 26, the domestic PVC production enterprise operating rate was 78.97%, up 0.33 percentage points year-on-year, with weekly output at 479,600 tons [1] Group 2 - PVC inventory continues to rise due to high supply, with pre-holiday inventory at 1.328 million tons, a 2.11% increase, marking 13 consecutive weeks of accumulation. Social inventory sample data shows 971,300 tons, a 16.23% year-on-year increase, indicating significant de-stocking pressure [1] - The operating rates for domestic pipe and profile industries are around 40%. Real estate investment, new construction area, completed area, and sales area in August showed year-on-year declines of -12.9%, -19.5%, -4.7%, and -17%, respectively, leading to insufficient new orders and a weekly demand of around 450,000 tons for PVC [1] Group 3 - The imposition of anti-dumping duties by India on PVC imports from China has impacted exports, with duties ranging from 122 to 232 USD/ton for five years, although the market had anticipated this, leading to a "rush to export" in July and August [2] - The short-term supply-demand imbalance for PVC is unlikely to change, with ample domestic production capacity and high inventory levels. The downward trend in the real estate sector and the impact of India's anti-dumping duties on exports suggest a continued weak price outlook for PVC [3] - However, there are potential short-term rebound demands for PVC due to historical low prices, cost support, potential supply issues with upstream calcium carbide as winter approaches, and possible policy stimuli towards the end of the year [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in urea futures and spot prices is attributed to weak market sentiment and an oversupply situation, leading to a bearish outlook for the urea market in the short term [1][4][5]. Price Trends - On September 9, urea futures fell below the 1700 yuan/ton mark, closing at 1669 yuan/ton on September 10, a decrease of 1.01% [1]. - In the spot market, prices also declined, with small particle urea prices in major domestic production areas like Shandong and Henan ranging from 1640 to 1700 yuan/ton, while prices in the northern Xinjiang region were between 1410 and 1500 yuan/ton [3]. Market Sentiment - Market sentiment is cautious, with manufacturers having varying pressures based on their export orders. Companies with export orders maintain a firm pricing stance, while those lacking such orders are more inclined to lower prices to secure sales [3]. - Downstream enterprises are adopting a wait-and-see approach, particularly in the agricultural sector [3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The decline in urea prices is primarily due to weak fundamentals, with domestic urea production remaining at historically high levels despite a slight decrease in daily output. Current inventory levels are around 1.09 million tons [4]. - Agricultural demand is currently in a seasonal lull, with low purchasing activity from grassroots levels and high inventory levels at compound fertilizer companies [4][5]. Future Outlook - Urea production is expected to rebound in mid to late September, potentially reaching daily outputs of over 190,000 tons, which may exacerbate the supply situation [5]. - The market is characterized by high supply, high inventory, and weak demand, leading to a "weak reality" for the urea market. However, potential export opportunities could provide short-term support for prices [5]. - Despite the bearish sentiment, the downward price movement may be limited as the market could be nearing a bottom [5].

Supply Situation - PVC production companies are currently operating at a high capacity despite being in a loss-making state, with an operating load of 77.61% as of August 22, which is an increase of 0.84 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The average loss for domestic calcium carbide method PVC is 220 yuan/ton, compared to a profit of 200 yuan/ton in the same period last year, while the ethylene method PVC has an average loss of 580 yuan/ton, up from a loss of 190 yuan/ton year-on-year [2] - The domestic PVC weekly production is around 465,000 tons, with a demand of approximately 453,000 tons, resulting in a surplus of about 12,000 tons [2] Inventory Levels - Although PVC inventory is lower than the same period last year, there has been a significant increase in social inventory since July, with a sample data of 852,700 tons, up 5.09% week-on-week and down 6.50% year-on-year [3] - The East China region has a social inventory of 784,100 tons, up 5.33% week-on-week and down 9.91% year-on-year, while South China has 68,700 tons, up 2.46% week-on-week and up 64.69% year-on-year [3] Demand Dynamics - The real estate sector, a major downstream market for PVC, is experiencing a downturn, with a 12% year-on-year decrease in cumulative real estate development investment from January to July, and a 19.4% decline in newly started construction area [4] - The operating load for PVC pipe enterprises is at 33.61% and for profile enterprises at 37.65%, indicating a lack of significant change in downstream enterprise operations [4] Export Trends - From January to July, domestic PVC exports reached 2.6595 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 53.06% [5] - India, a key export destination, has imposed anti-dumping duties on PVC imports from China, which could diminish China's price advantage and affect future export volumes [6] - The anti-dumping tax is expected to be implemented in September, leading to a potential surge in exports in August as companies rush to fulfill orders [6] Market Outlook - The overall PVC market is characterized by an oversupply situation, with the supply side remaining robust despite poor operating conditions for producers [7] - The demand from the real estate market is unlikely to show significant improvement, and the imposition of anti-dumping duties by India may further impact export dynamics [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the overall market supply exceeds demand, leading to a decrease in pork prices across major cities in China [1] - From August 11 to 17, the average retail price of pork in 36 major cities decreased by 0.5% compared to the previous week [1] - The western region of China experienced the most significant price drops, with Guiyang, Hohhot, and Xi'an seeing declines of 3.1%, 0.9%, and 0.6% respectively [1]

Group 1 - The company expects to incur a loss of up to RMB 320 million for the six months ending June 3, 2025, compared to a net loss of approximately RMB 137 million for the six months ending June 30, 2024 [1] - The losses are primarily attributed to the prolonged downturn in the Chinese real estate sector, leading to a "supply exceeds demand" situation in the construction glass market, which keeps prices low [1] - The photovoltaic industry in China continues to experience a "supply-demand mismatch," further compressing profit margins across the entire solar power value chain [1] Group 2 - Macroeconomic uncertainties, including geopolitical instability, fluctuating international trade policies, and currency exchange rate volatility, have weakened the contribution of the company's overseas production base's strong performance to overall profitability [1]