Group 1: Overall Investment Ratings and Core Views - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating [2] - Core views on various metals: Gold is expected to experience a pullback adjustment in the short - term but maintains long - term strategic value; silver is recommended for long - term buying; copper is recommended for long - term holding; zinc is expected to rebound with limited upside and is a short - term bearish option; lead's price rebound is under pressure; tin's price is short - term strong; aluminum's price is short - term strong; nickel's price is under pressure and weak; industrial silicon is expected to rebound; polysilicon is recommended for long - term holding; and lithium carbonate is recommended for long - term holding [2] Group 2: Gold and Silver Market Review - G2 relations have eased, but Powell's statement was unexpected. Short - term focus is on when gold and silver will stop falling [3] Basic Logic - Powell cooled the market's expectation of a December interest rate cut. The Fed's "dovish" action was accompanied by a "hawkish" guidance. The probability of a December rate cut dropped significantly [4] - The Bank of Canada cut interest rates, and the market expects more cuts [4] - Attention is on the G2 leaders' meeting [4] - In the long run, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and the reconstruction of the geopolitical pattern [4] Strategy Recommendation - Short - term focus on when gold and silver will stop falling. For domestic gold, pay attention to the 900 support level. Silver has strong support at 11000. Long - term value - oriented positions should be held [5] Group 3: Copper Market Review - Both Shanghai and London copper prices reached record highs [8] Industry Logic - Trump revoked strict emission restrictions on copper smelters and provided a two - year compliance exemption. SMM expects a decline in electrolytic copper production in October and a contraction in the fourth quarter [8] - High copper prices have curbed demand, and downstream buyers are hesitant. The weekly operating rate of electrolytic copper rod enterprises decreased [8] Strategy Recommendation - Wait and see if copper can break through the 90,000 mark. Short - term copper long positions should take profit, and avoid chasing high prices. Long - term strategic long positions should be held. Industrial hedging should use options for protection [9] Group 4: Zinc Market Review - Zinc continued to rebound but was under pressure at the 22,500 level [11] Industry Logic - Domestic zinc concentrate supply is abundant. The processing fee of domestic zinc concentrate has declined, and the profit loss of refined zinc enterprises has slightly expanded [11] - The "Silver October" peak season was lackluster, and demand was weak. The domestic zinc ingot export window opened, and domestic inventories increased slightly [11] Strategy Recommendation - Zinc's upside is limited after the short - term macro - policy stimulus fades. In the long run, zinc supply will increase while demand decreases. It is a bearish option in the sector [12] Group 5: Aluminum Market Review - Aluminum prices should be chased with caution, and alumina showed a slight stabilization trend [14] Industry Logic - Overseas, the Fed continued to cut interest rates in October. In China, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum reached 44.05 million tons in early October, and inventories increased slightly [15] - The domestic alumina industry's profit has shrunk significantly, and some high - cost enterprises are facing losses. The market is in an oversupply situation in the short term [15] Strategy Recommendation - Shanghai aluminum should take profit on short - term long positions. Pay attention to the operating rate changes of downstream processing enterprises [16] Group 6: Nickel Market Review - Nickel prices fell under pressure, and stainless steel's rebound was under pressure [18] Industry Logic - Overseas, the Fed continued to cut interest rates in October. The supply of nickel ore from Indonesia has become more stable, and domestic pure nickel inventories have continued to accumulate [19] - The performance of the stainless steel terminal consumption peak season needs further observation. The expected production increase of stainless steel will put pressure on inventory reduction [19] Strategy Recommendation - Nickel and stainless steel should be put on hold for now. Pay attention to the improvement of downstream consumption [20] Group 7: Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main contract LC2601 rose and then fell, with a slight increase in positions throughout the day [22] Industry Logic - The fundamentals have improved significantly. Total inventory has decreased for 10 consecutive weeks, and the downstream material factories' raw material inventory has been consumed rapidly [23] - Although supply is still growing, production in Sichuan has decreased slightly. Terminal demand remains strong, and the supply - demand structure has improved [23] Strategy Recommendation - Adopt a low - buying strategy in the range of 82,200 - 84,500 [24]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: High-level decline, strategic allocation value remains unchanged in the medium to long term [1] - Silver: High-level decline, long-term bullish after stabilization [1] - Copper: Long-term holding, short-term profit-taking [1] - Zinc: Rebound, short-term upside limited, medium to long-term bearish [1] - Lead: Rebound under pressure [1] - Tin: Rebound [1] - Aluminum: Relatively strong [1] - Nickel: Rebound and then decline [1] - Industrial Silicon: Range-bound operation [1] - Polysilicon: Bullish [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Bullish [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market trends of various non-ferrous metals and new energy metals, including gold, silver, copper, zinc, lead, tin, aluminum, nickel, industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate. It provides insights into the short-term and long-term price trends, as well as investment strategies for each metal [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Situation**: Due to the easing of Sino-US relations and the reduction of risk aversion, the prices of gold and silver have significantly adjusted. In the short term, risk assets have risen sharply, leading to an obvious outflow of funds from safe-haven gold and silver. However, in the long term, gold is expected to benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and the reconstruction of the geopolitical pattern, potentially maintaining a long-term upward trend [2][3][4]. - **Investment Strategy**: In the short term, pay attention to the support levels of gold and silver. For domestic gold, focus on the 900 support level, and for silver, focus on the effectiveness of the 11000 support level. Long-term value investors should continue to hold their positions [4]. Copper - **Market Situation**: The price of copper has reached a new high this year, but it has given back some of its gains overnight. The market has fully priced in the optimistic expectations of the Fed's interest rate cut and the easing of Sino-US relations. In the short term, downstream demand is suppressed by high prices, and social inventories have increased. However, in the long term, copper is expected to benefit from the shortage of copper concentrates and the booming demand for green copper [5][6][7]. - **Investment Strategy**: Short-term long positions should be moved to take profits, and investors should avoid blindly chasing high prices. Long-term strategic long positions should be held, and industrial hedging should consider adding option protection. In the short term, the price of Shanghai copper is expected to trade in the range of 86000 - 90000 yuan/ton, and the price of London copper is expected to trade in the range of 10600 - 11200 US dollars/ton [7]. Zinc - **Market Situation**: Zinc prices have continued to rebound, but overall demand is weak, and long-term supply is relatively loose. The silver ten peak season has not been prosperous, and demand is under pressure. The domestic zinc ingot export window has opened, and domestic inventories have slightly increased, while overseas LME zinc inventories are at risk of a soft squeeze [8][9][10]. - **Investment Strategy**: In the short term, the upside space may be limited after the short-term macro policy stimulus fades. Pay attention to the breakthrough of the two resistance levels at 22500 and 22800. In the medium to long term, zinc is expected to have an increase in supply and a decrease in demand, remaining a short position in the sector. The price of Shanghai zinc is expected to trade in the range of 22200 - 22800 yuan/ton, and the price of London zinc is expected to trade in the range of 2980 - 3080 US dollars/ton [10]. Aluminum - **Market Situation**: Aluminum prices have continued to rise, and the price of alumina has stabilized. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum has reached a high level, and domestic inventories have decreased. The demand side is relatively stable, and the downstream processing enterprise's operating rate has remained flat [11][12][13]. - **Investment Strategy**: It is recommended to buy on dips in the short term, paying attention to the changes in the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises. The main operating range of Shanghai aluminum is expected to be between 21000 - 21800 yuan/ton [14]. Nickel - **Market Situation**: Nickel prices have rebounded under pressure, and stainless steel prices have also rebounded. Overseas, the supply of nickel ore has become relatively stable, and domestic pure nickel inventories have continued to accumulate. The terminal consumption of stainless steel is in the peak season, but the performance is average, and the market is under pressure to destock [15][16][17]. - **Investment Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see for the time being, paying attention to the improvement of downstream consumption. The main operating range of nickel is expected to be between 120000 - 123000 yuan/ton [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Situation**: The price of lithium carbonate has shown a relatively strong trend. The fundamental situation has improved significantly, with total inventories decreasing for 10 consecutive weeks and the destocking rhythm accelerating after the holiday. Although the supply side continues to grow, the production in Sichuan has decreased slightly due to the shortage of domestic lithium spodumene, while the incremental contribution from the ramping up of salt lake production capacity. Terminal demand remains strong, and the production schedule for November is still relatively high [19][20][21]. - **Investment Strategy**: Long positions should be held, and investors can consider adding positions on pullbacks. The price of the main contract LC2601 is expected to trade in the range of 81000 - 84000 yuan/ton [21][22].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: High-level adjustment [1] - Silver: High-level adjustment [1] - Copper: Long-term holding [1] - Zinc: Rebound [1] - Lead: Rebound [1] - Tin: Rebound [1] - Aluminum: Bullish [1] - Nickel: Stabilize and recover [1] - Industrial silicon: Range-bound [1] - Polysilicon: Cautiously bullish [1] - Lithium carbonate: Bullish [1] Core Views of the Report - Gold prices are temporarily halted from falling due to factors such as tense US-Russia relations and uncertain US policies. In the short term, there are key negotiation periods and geopolitical issues, while in the long term, the supporting logic remains unchanged, including the start of an interest rate cut cycle, geopolitical reshaping, and central bank gold purchases [1][3]. - Silver prices are in a high-level adjustment. In the short term, the market fluctuates greatly, and in the long term, global policy stimulus will drive up demand, resulting in a continuous supply-demand gap [1]. - Copper prices are expected to rise in the long term. With the improvement of the market atmosphere and the increase in risk appetite, it is recommended to hold existing long positions, and new long positions should wait for a pullback [1][7]. - Zinc prices are in a rebound, but the upward space is limited. In the long term, supply will increase while demand will decrease [1][10]. - Aluminum prices are expected to remain bullish in the short term due to the stabilization of alumina prices and the depletion of inventories during the peak season [1][14]. - Nickel prices are stabilizing and recovering, supported by the peak season demand for nickel sulfate [1][18]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to rise. The supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the inventory has been decreasing for 10 consecutive weeks. It is recommended to hold long positions [1][22]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Gold and silver prices showed signs of halting their decline due to tense US-Russia relations and the EU's new round of sanctions against Russia [2]. - **Basic Logic**: The EU approved the 19th round of sanctions against Russia, and the US economic data was strong. In the long term, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and geopolitical restructuring [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The long-term upward logic remains unchanged. In the short term, pay attention to the opportunity to enter the market when gold and silver prices halt their decline. For domestic gold, pay attention to the support at 930, and for silver, pay attention to the effectiveness of the support at 11,200. Long-term positions can continue to be held [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper opened higher overnight and consolidated at a high level [6]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas copper mine supply disturbances increased, and domestic electrolytic copper production is expected to decline in the fourth quarter. After the copper price rose, downstream demand was weak, and domestic social inventories increased slightly [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to continue holding long positions in copper, be cautious about chasing high prices, and new long positions should wait for a pullback. In the long term, copper is a strategic resource in the US-China game and a substitute for precious metals, and its demand is expected to increase [7]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Zinc opened lower overnight and then rose, recovering the gap [9]. - **Industrial Logic**: Domestic zinc concentrate supply is abundant, and zinc smelters are actively producing. The peak season demand is weak, and the situation of weak domestic and strong overseas markets continues [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Zinc prices are in a rebound, but the upward space is limited. In the long term, it is still a short position in the sector. Pay attention to the resistance at 22,500 [10]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices continued to rise, and alumina prices stabilized [12]. - **Industrial Logic**: There is still an expectation of interest rate cuts overseas. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum has reached a high level, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The alumina market is in an oversupply situation [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to buy on dips in the short term, paying attention to the changes in the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises [14]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices rebounded slightly, and stainless steel prices also rose [16]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas nickel mine supply disturbances have weakened, and domestic pure nickel inventory has increased significantly. The peak season demand for stainless steel is not obvious, and the market is under pressure to destock [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to wait and see for now, paying attention to the improvement of downstream consumption [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2601 opened higher and closed higher, with increasing positions and trading volume [20]. - **Industrial Logic**: The supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the inventory has been decreasing for 9 consecutive weeks. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is strong. The main funds may drive up the price when shifting positions [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions in the 2601 contract, with a focus on the range of 78,500 - 82,000 [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: High-level correction, long-term strategic allocation value remains, short-term wait and see [2] - Silver: High-level adjustment, long-term bullish, short-term exit and wait and see, long-term wait for stabilization to go long [2] - Copper: High-level consolidation, long-term bullish, copper long positions to be held with caution [2] - Zinc: Rebound, long-term supply increase and demand decrease, rebound to sell high [2] - Lead: Rebound [2] - Tin: Rebound under pressure [2] - Aluminum: Relatively strong, short-term rise and then fall [2] - Nickel: Stabilize [2] - Industrial silicon: Range operation, short-term weak operation, wait and see [2] - Polysilicon: Cautiously bullish, wait for callback to buy [2] - Lithium carbonate: Cautiously bullish, hold long positions [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - The prices of various non-ferrous metals are affected by multiple factors such as macroeconomics, supply and demand, and geopolitics. In the short term, the prices of some varieties may fluctuate due to market sentiment and short-term events, while in the long term, the supply and demand fundamentals and macro environment will play a decisive role [2] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Technical selling continues to suppress the gold price, and the center of gravity of gold continues to decline [3] - **Basic Logic**: The US government shutdown, the US debt scale exceeding 38 trillion US dollars, the twists and turns of the Trump-Putin meeting. In the long term, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar credit, and the reconstruction of the geopolitical pattern [4] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for the gold price to stop falling in the short term, and the long-term upward logic remains unchanged. Pay attention to the support of 920 for domestic gold. For silver, pay attention to the sentiment rhythm and the effectiveness of the support at 11,000. Long-term positions can continue to be held [5] Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper stabilizes at a high level and fluctuates narrowly [7] - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas copper mine supply disturbances increase, domestic copper concentrate imports increase, and the electrolytic copper production in the fourth quarter is expected to shrink. The downstream is cautious due to high prices, and the domestic social inventory accumulates slightly [7] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold copper long positions with caution, use trailing stop-loss to protect profits. New long positions wait for the callback to stabilize. For enterprises, producers can sell hedging at high prices, and processors wait for the opportunity to buy hedging. In the long term, be bullish on copper [8] Zinc - **Market Review**: Zinc fluctuates and rebounds, standing firm at the 22,000 mark [10] - **Industrial Logic**: The domestic zinc concentrate supply is loose, the zinc smelter starts actively, the demand is under pressure, and the overseas LME zinc inventory has a soft squeeze risk [10] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short-term zinc short positions can gradually take profits, and wait for the rebound to go short again. In the long term, zinc is a short allocation [11] Aluminum - **Market Review**: The aluminum price continues to rise, and alumina stabilizes at a low level [13] - **Industrial Logic**: There is still an expectation of interest rate cuts overseas. The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is high, the inventory decreases, and the demand is relatively stable. The alumina market is in an oversupply pattern in the short term [14] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy Shanghai aluminum on dips in the short term, pay attention to the start of downstream processing enterprises, and the main operating range is [20,800 - 21,500] [15] Nickel - **Market Review**: The nickel price rebounds slightly, and stainless steel rebounds and then falls [17] - **Industrial Logic**: The overseas nickel ore supply disturbance weakens, the domestic pure nickel inventory accumulates, and the stainless steel inventory increases. The terminal consumption in the peak season needs further observation [18] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see for nickel and stainless steel, pay attention to the improvement of downstream consumption, and the main operating range of nickel is [120,000 - 123,000] [19] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2601 opens high and goes high, increasing positions and rising more than 1% [21] - **Industrial Logic**: Supply and demand are in a tight balance, the total inventory has declined for 9 consecutive weeks, the demand is strong, the supply is at a high level, and the terminal demand is booming [22] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions in the 2601 contract, with the range of [76,800 - 78,500] [23]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: High-level adjustment [2] - Silver: High-level correction [2] - Copper: High-level consolidation [2] - Zinc: Rebound and short sell [2] - Lead: Rebound [2] - Tin: Rebound [2] - Aluminum: Rebound, with pressure [2] - Nickel: Stabilize [2] - Industrial silicon: Range-bound [2] - Polysilicon: Bullish [2] - Lithium carbonate: Cautiously bullish [2] Core Views - The prices of gold and silver dropped significantly due to the potential cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the withdrawal of speculative forces. However, in the long term, gold's upward logic remains unchanged, while silver has a supply - demand gap in the long run. Copper prices are affected by the potential end of the war and inventory accumulation, but are still bullish in the long term. Zinc supply is expected to increase while demand decreases. Lead, tin, and aluminum prices show short - term rebound trends. Nickel prices are stabilizing at a low level. Industrial silicon is in a range - bound state. Polysilicon is expected to rise after a correction. Lithium carbonate is in a state of supply - demand balance and is cautiously bullish [2]. Summary by Catalog Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Geopolitical relaxation and profit - taking of overbought funds led to a sharp decline in gold and silver prices, with the largest decline in 12 years [3]. - **Underlying Logic**: The Russia - Ukraine process is full of uncertainties; the tariff atmosphere between G2 is easing; there are political changes in Japan. In the long term, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and the reconstruction of the geopolitical pattern [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for gold prices to stop falling in the short term. For silver, exit short - term positions and hold long - term positions. Long - term gold's upward logic remains unchanged [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper fluctuated at a high level, with a V - shaped rebound during the session, and returned to the support level of 85,000 yuan [6]. - **Underlying Logic**: Overseas copper mine supply disturbances increased, and domestic electrolytic copper production in the fourth quarter is expected to shrink. High copper prices led to inventory accumulation and weak downstream demand [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold existing long positions with trailing stop - loss protection. New long positions should wait for a pull - back to stabilize. Long - term prospects for copper are positive [7]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Zinc prices fluctuated and were under pressure at the 22,000 - yuan mark [9]. - **Underlying Logic**: Domestic zinc concentrate supply is abundant, and zinc smelters are actively producing. The peak season for demand is not strong, and the situation of weak domestic and strong overseas zinc persists [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gradually take profits on short positions and wait for a rebound to re - enter short positions. Zinc is a short - side allocation in the long term [10]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices rebounded with pressure, and alumina prices stabilized at a low level [12]. - **Underlying Logic**: There is still an expectation of interest rate cuts overseas. The electrolytic aluminum industry has high production capacity and inventory is decreasing. Alumina is in an oversupply situation [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips in the short term, and pay attention to the operating range of the main contract [14]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices rebounded slightly, and stainless steel prices rebounded from a low level [16]. - **Underlying Logic**: Overseas nickel mine supply disturbances have weakened, and domestic pure nickel inventory has increased significantly. Stainless steel inventory has accumulated, and terminal demand is weak [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see for now, and pay attention to the improvement of downstream consumption and the operating range of the main contract [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2601 opened slightly lower and fluctuated within a narrow range throughout the day [20]. - **Underlying Logic**: Supply and demand are in a tight balance, inventory has been decreasing for 9 consecutive weeks, and terminal demand is strong. There are rumors of supply - side accidents [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions in the 2601 contract within the range of 75,500 - 77,000 yuan [22].

Group 1: Overall Investment Ratings and Core Views - Investment ratings for various metals: Gold (★★★, buy and hold), Silver (★★, hold long - term), Copper (★★, hold long - term), Zinc (★, sell on rebound), Lead (★, rebound), Tin (★, rebound), Aluminum (★, rebound), Nickel (★, stabilize), Industrial Silicon (★, range - bound), Polysilicon (★, bullish), Lithium Carbonate (★, cautiously bullish) [2] - Core views: Gold is supported by geopolitical factors and long - term positive factors; silver has short - term volatility but long - term bullish logic; copper has a supply contraction expectation in Q4 and long - term bullishness; zinc has increasing supply and decreasing demand; lead and tin have short - term rebound trends; aluminum has a short - term rebound under certain conditions; nickel is stabilizing at a low level; industrial silicon is range - bound; polysilicon is bullish; lithium carbonate is in a tight supply - demand balance and is cautiously bullish [2] Group 2: Gold and Silver Market Review - G2 atmosphere may ease, but issues like the US government shutdown, Russia - Ukraine conflict, and Middle East problems are recurring, providing support for gold and silver prices [3] Fundamental Logic - Trump administration is relaxing tariffs, the US government shutdown may continue, there are changes in Japan's political situation, and gold benefits from long - term factors such as global monetary easing, declining US dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring [4] Strategy Recommendation - Gold's long - term upward logic remains unchanged, with clear support at 960 in the domestic market. For silver, pay attention to sentiment rhythm, and short - term investors should exit and wait, while long - term positions can be held [5] Group 3: Copper Market Review - Shanghai copper fluctuates at a high level, standing firm at the 85,000 support [7] Industrial Logic - Overseas copper mine supply disturbances increase, domestic copper production in Q4 may contract, downstream demand is affected, and social inventory accumulates slightly [7] Strategy Recommendation - Hold existing copper long positions with trailing stop - loss, new long positions should wait for callbacks. Pay attention to support at 82,500 - 83,000 and resistance at 86,500 - 87,000. Long - term, copper is bullish [8] Group 4: Zinc Market Review - Zinc stops falling and rebounds, testing the 22,000 resistance [10] Industrial Logic - Global refined zinc supply is expected to be in surplus in 2025 - 2026, domestic zinc concentrate supply is abundant, demand is under pressure, and the situation of weak domestic and strong overseas persists [10] Strategy Recommendation - Short - term zinc short positions can take profits, wait for rebounds to re - enter. Long - term, zinc is a short - side allocation in the sector [11] Group 5: Aluminum Market Review - Aluminum price rebounds under pressure, and alumina stabilizes at a low level [13] Industrial Logic - There is still an expectation of interest rate cuts overseas. Aluminum inventory is decreasing, and alumina is in an oversupply situation in the short term [14] Strategy Recommendation - Short - term, buy aluminum on dips, pay attention to the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises, with the main operating range of [20,500 - 21,500] [15] Group 6: Nickel Market Review - Nickel price stabilizes slightly, and stainless steel rebounds slightly [17] Industrial Logic - Overseas nickel mine supply disturbances weaken, nickel inventory accumulates, and stainless steel inventory also increases with weak terminal demand [18] Strategy Recommendation - Temporarily wait and see for nickel and stainless steel, pay attention to the improvement of downstream consumption, with the main operating range of nickel at [120,000 - 122,000] [19] Group 7: Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main contract LC2511 opens high and moves low, oscillating horizontally throughout the day [21] Industrial Logic - Supply and demand are in a tight balance, inventory has declined for 9 consecutive weeks, demand is strong, and the main capital's position transfer may drive the price up [22] Strategy Recommendation - Hold long positions in the 2601 contract with the range of [75,700 - 77,000] [23]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Buy and hold [1] - Silver: Short - term watch, long - term hold [1] - Copper: Long - term hold [1] - Zinc: Bearish, short - term short positions and gradually take profits, long - term short on rebounds [1] - Lead: Rebound under pressure [1] - Tin: Under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Rebound under pressure [1] - Nickel: Weak [1] - Industrial silicon: Cautiously bearish [1] - Polysilicon: Bullish [1] - Lithium carbonate: Cautiously bullish [1] 2. Core Views - The short - term safe - haven demand for gold has declined but still exists. The long - term support logic for gold remains unchanged, with the opening of the interest - rate cut cycle, geopolitical reshaping, and central bank gold purchases [1]. - Silver has high short - term volatility due to potential US taxation and low London inventory. Long - term, global policy will stimulate demand and there will be a continuous supply - demand gap [1]. - Copper is in high - level consolidation in the short term, with supply expected to shrink in the fourth quarter. In the long term, copper is still bullish due to tight copper concentrates and the explosion of green copper demand [1]. - Zinc is under pressure and fluctuating weakly in the short term, with supply increasing and demand decreasing in the long term [1]. - Lead prices are under pressure to rebound in the short term due to planned restarts of recycling plants and uncertain downstream consumption [1]. - Tin prices are under short - term pressure due to reduced overseas disturbances and uncertain downstream demand [1]. - Aluminum prices are under pressure to rebound in the short term, with insufficient cost support from alumina but some support from terminal consumption [1]. - Nickel prices are weak, with sufficient domestic supply and uncertain downstream demand [1]. - Industrial silicon is cautiously bearish due to increased industry开工率 and potential negative impacts on demand [1]. - Polysilicon is bullish as there are expectations of production capacity regulation and potential production cuts [1]. - Lithium carbonate is cautiously bullish, with supply - demand balance in the short term, continuous inventory reduction, and strong terminal demand [1] 3. Summaries by Catalog Gold and Silver - **行情回顾**: G2 tension eases, gold and silver prices adjust. Gold prices are strong due to US government shutdown, ongoing Russia - Ukraine issue, and repeated Middle - East problems [2]. - **基本逻辑**: Sino - US relations ease; Ray Dalio emphasizes a bullish stance on gold; the Middle - East issue is repeated. Long - term, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, declining US dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring [3]. - **策略推荐**: Gold's long - term upward logic remains unchanged. Domestic gold has strong support at 950. Silver has high speculative sentiment, with short - term adjustments. Short - term investors should watch, while long - term investors can hold [4]. Copper - **行情回顾**: Shanghai copper is consolidating in a high - level range [6]. - **产业逻辑**: Overseas copper mine supply disturbances increase, and domestic electrolytic copper production is expected to shrink in the fourth quarter. High copper prices suppress demand, and domestic social inventory accumulates slightly [6]. - **策略推荐**: Copper is in high - level consolidation, but the long - term trend is unchanged. Hold previous long positions with trailing stops, and new long positions should enter on dips. Long - term, be bullish on copper. Shanghai copper focuses on the range [83000, 88000] yuan/ton, and LME copper focuses on [10000, 11000] US dollars/ton [7]. Zinc - **行情回顾**: Zinc prices are under pressure and fluctuating weakly [10]. - **产业逻辑**: The global refined zinc supply is expected to be in surplus in 2025 and 2026. Domestic zinc concentrate supply is abundant, and the "Silver October" peak season is lackluster [10]. - **策略推荐**: Short - term short positions can gradually take profits. Wait for rebounds to re - enter short positions. In the long term, zinc is a short - side allocation. Shanghai zinc focuses on [21600, 22000] yuan/ton, and LME zinc focuses on [2900, 3000] US dollars/ton [11]. Aluminum - **行情回顾**: Aluminum prices are under pressure to rebound, and alumina prices are stabilizing at a low level [13]. - **产业逻辑**: There are still expectations of interest - rate cuts overseas. The electrolytic aluminum industry has high operating capacity, and inventory is decreasing. The alumina market is in surplus in the short term [14]. - **策略推荐**: Short - term, buy Shanghai aluminum on dips. Pay attention to the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises. The main operating range is [20500 - 21500] [15]. Nickel - **行情回顾**: Nickel prices rebound and then decline, and stainless steel prices rebound slightly [17]. - **产业逻辑**: Overseas disturbances in nickel ore supply are weakening, and domestic pure nickel inventory is accumulating. The downstream stainless steel consumption peak season is uncertain [18]. - **策略推荐**: Temporarily watch nickel and stainless steel. Pay attention to the improvement of downstream consumption. The main operating range for nickel is [119000 - 122000] [19]. Lithium Carbonate - **行情回顾**: The main contract LC2511 opens high and goes high, but the gains narrow at the end [21]. - **产业逻辑**: Supply and demand are in a tight balance, with inventory declining for 9 consecutive weeks. Demand is strong, and supply has accident rumors. Terminal demand is strong, supporting prices [22]. - **策略推荐**: Hold long positions in the 2601 contract within the range [75300 - 77800] [23]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long-term hold, ★★ [1] - Silver: Bullish in the long run, ★★ [1] - Copper: Bullish, ★★ [1] - Zinc: Bearish in the medium to long term, ★ [1] - Lead: Rebound under pressure, ★ [1] - Tin: Short-term rebound, ★ [1] - Aluminum: Rebound, ★★ [1] - Nickel: Short-term rebound, ★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: Bullish in the short term, ★ [1] - Polysilicon: Bullish, ★★ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Rebound under pressure, ★ [1] Core Views - Gold and silver are affected by factors such as the rise of the US dollar index and US bond yields, but the long-term bullish logic remains unchanged due to global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring [1][3][4] - Copper prices hit a new high this year due to the mine accident in Indonesia and the tight supply of copper concentrates, and the long-term outlook is positive [5][6][7] - Zinc shows a weak rebound in the short term, and the supply is expected to increase while the demand decreases in the medium to long term [9][10] - Aluminum prices are stabilizing and rebounding, and short-term buying on dips is recommended [11][13][14] - Nickel prices are rebounding in the short term, and short-term long positions on dips are recommended [15][17][18] - Lithium carbonate has a situation of both supply and demand being strong, but the upward driving force is insufficient [19][21][22] Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: The US dollar and US bond yields have risen significantly, leading to a correction in gold prices as some funds leave the market due to profit-taking [2] - **Basic Logic**: US economic data has unexpectedly improved, there are differences among Fed officials, and the US and the EU have reached a tariff agreement. In the long term, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The short-term correction of gold does not change the long-term trend. There may be support around 840 for gold and 10000 for silver in the short term. Long-term long positions can continue to be held [4] Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper and London copper soared by more than 3%, hitting a new high this year [6] - **Industrial Logic**: The supply of copper concentrates is tight, and the mine accident in Indonesia's Grasberg copper mine is expected to lead to a significant reduction in global copper mine supply. The processing fee of copper concentrates is still deeply inverted, and the domestic electrolytic copper production may decline in September [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to hold long positions in copper, gradually take profits on rallies, and prepare to hold an empty or light position during the holiday. For the long term, copper is still favored [7] Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc showed a weak rebound, while London zinc oscillated strongly [9] - **Industrial Logic**: The supply of zinc concentrates is expected to be loose in 2025. Domestic refinery maintenance has increased in September, and zinc ingot production is expected to decrease. The inventory of Shanghai zinc has increased significantly, while the inventory of London zinc has continued to decline. The demand has been affected by the typhoon [9] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take profits on short positions in Shanghai zinc and prepare to hold an empty or light position during the holiday. In the medium to long term, it is recommended to sell on rallies [10] Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices rebounded, and alumina prices stabilized at a low level [12] - **Industrial Logic**: The production of domestic electrolytic aluminum has continued to increase slightly. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots has increased slightly, while the inventory of aluminum rods has decreased slightly. The demand has shown a slight improvement. The supply of alumina is expected to be loose in the short term [13] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to buy on dips in the short term for Shanghai aluminum, paying attention to the changes in the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises [14] Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices rebounded, while stainless steel prices faced pressure on the rebound [16] - **Industrial Logic**: The supply of refined nickel is under pressure, while the supply of nickel sulfate is relatively tight. The inventory of stainless steel has decreased, but the improvement of the peak season needs to be observed [17] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take short-term long positions on dips for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to the improvement of downstream consumption [18] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 opened high and closed low, with a decline at the end of the session [20] - **Industrial Logic**: The supply has not significantly shrunk, and the demand has received positive support. The total inventory has decreased for six consecutive weeks, and the inventory of smelters is lower than that of last year [21] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the support around the 60-day moving average [72700 - 74100] [22]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term hold, rated ★★ [1] - Silver: Expected to rise strongly, rated ★★ [1] - Copper: In September, take profit on long positions, rated ★ [1] - Zinc: Under pressure, rated ★ [1] - Lead: Rebound under pressure, rated ★ [1] - Tin: Rebound under pressure, rated ★ [1] - Aluminum: Under pressure, rated ★ [1] - Nickel: Rebound under pressure, rated ★ [1] - Industrial silicon: Rebound under pressure, rated ★ [1] - Polysilicon: High - level oscillation in September, rated ★ [1] - Lithium carbonate: Rebound under pressure, rated ★ [1] Core Views of the Report - Gold and silver are favored in the long - term. Gold is supported by factors such as geopolitical changes, economic uncertainty, and expected global monetary easing. Silver has strong demand and a significant supply - demand gap. Both are expected to rise in the long run. However, silver is more volatile [1][2][3]. - For copper, although there are short - term factors such as the disappointment of interest - rate cut expectations and holiday risk - aversion sentiment, it is still promising in the long term due to its strategic importance and supply - demand situation [1][5][6]. - Zinc is expected to have an increase in supply and a decrease in demand in the long term, so it is a short - position configuration in the sector, but short - term risk - aversion sentiment may lead to the need to take profit on short positions [1][7][9]. - Other metals such as lead, tin, aluminum, nickel, industrial silicon, and polysilicon are currently facing different supply - demand situations, and their prices are generally under pressure to rebound [1]. - Lithium carbonate has a situation of both supply and demand booming, and it is recommended to take a long - position approach at low prices [1][18][21]. Summary by Catalog Gold and Silver Market Review - Large inflows of funds and factors such as the risk of a US government shutdown have supported gold to reach new historical highs both domestically and internationally [2]. Basic Logic - Fed officials have different views on interest - rate cuts. There is continuous inflow of funds into gold, with the持仓 of the world's largest gold ETF reaching a new high since August 2022. Under geopolitical changes and economic uncertainty, gold is strong in the short term and may have a long - term bull market [2]. Strategy Recommendation - Gold can be bought both in the short and long term. For silver, although there is support around 9800, due to its high volatility, careful consideration of position and rhythm is needed when buying in the short term. In general, the long - term bullish logic for both gold and silver remains unchanged [3]. Copper Market Review - Shanghai copper has stopped falling and stabilized, while London copper has returned to the $10,000 mark, showing a pattern of stronger overseas and weaker domestic markets [5]. Industrial Logic - Copper concentrate supply is tight. The import volume of copper concentrates and unforged copper in August has different trends. The processing fee of copper concentrates is still deeply inverted, and the domestic electrolytic copper production in September may decline [5]. Strategy Recommendation - In September, the domestic LPR remained unchanged, and the market's interest - rate cut expectations were disappointed. With the approaching of the National Day holiday, it is recommended to take profit on long positions and prepare to hold an empty or light position during the holiday. In the long term, copper is still promising. Pay attention to specific price ranges for Shanghai copper and London copper [6]. Zinc Market Review - Shanghai zinc has stopped falling and rebounded [8]. Industrial Logic - In 2025, the supply of zinc concentrates is expected to be loose, but the domestic production of zinc concentrates has decreased. The inventory performance is divided, with the LME zinc inventory decreasing and the SHFE zinc inventory increasing. The consumption in the peak season in September is expected to be good, but downstream procurement is based on rigid demand [8]. Strategy Recommendation - With the approaching of the National Day holiday, it is recommended to gradually take profit on short positions of Shanghai zinc and prepare to hold an empty or light position during the holiday. In the long term, maintain the view of short - selling on rebounds [9]. Aluminum Market Review - Aluminum prices are under short - term pressure, and alumina shows a relatively weak trend [11]. Industrial Logic - For electrolytic aluminum, overseas interest - rate cuts are in line with expectations. The domestic production in August increased slightly, and the inventory situation is different for aluminum ingots and aluminum rods. For alumina, the supply of bauxite in Guinea is abundant, but the rainy season may affect the arrival volume in September, and the supply - side pressure is increasing [12]. Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to take a long - position approach at low prices for Shanghai aluminum in the short term, and pay attention to the changes in the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises [13]. Nickel Market Review - Nickel prices have rebounded from low levels, and stainless steel has also shown a rebound trend [15]. Industrial Logic - Overseas interest - rate cuts are in line with expectations. The supply - demand situation within the domestic nickel industry chain is differentiated, with a large supply surplus of refined nickel and a relatively tight situation in the nickel sulfate segment. The inventory of stainless steel has decreased, but the arrival of overseas goods and the increase in domestic production in September mean that the performance of the peak - season consumption needs to be observed [16]. Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for nickel and stainless steel in the short term, and pay attention to the improvement of terminal consumption. Pay attention to the specific price range for nickel [17]. Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main contract LC2511 first rose and then fell, closing in the red at the end of the session [19]. Industrial Logic - The supply has not significantly shrunk, and the weekly production and operating rate have increased slightly. The demand has received policy support, and the total inventory has decreased for six consecutive weeks. The issue of mining licenses in Jiangxi may attract market attention at the end of the month [20]. Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to take a long - position approach at low prices within the range of [72700 - 74700] [21].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to between 4% and 4.25%, marking the first rate cut in nine months [1] - Following the Fed's announcement, several global central banks also lowered their rates, including the Bank of Canada and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, which both cut rates by 25 basis points [2] - The Fed's dot plot indicates an increase in the forecast for rate cuts this year from 2 to 3, suggesting two more cuts are expected in addition to the recent one [1] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the recent rate cut reflects weaker-than-expected economic data in the U.S., and there is a likelihood of continued rate cuts throughout the year [3] - The impact of the Fed's rate cut on global equity markets is expected to be limited in the short term, but a prolonged period of monetary easing may support a slow bull market for global equities [3] - Historical trends indicate that during periods of Fed monetary easing, global asset classes, particularly equities like A-shares, tend to perform well, while bond assets also follow the policy rate movements [3]