Core Points - The Dow Jones index experienced a significant drop of over 800 points, marking the largest single-day decline since April 7 [1] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell by 6% during the session, while the FTSE A50 futures dropped by 4.26% [1] Market Reaction - Unlike the "epic crash" on April 7, the A-share market had already adjusted in advance, with the main index falling below 3900 points and the ChiNext index dropping by 4.55% [3] - This preemptive decline has created mixed sentiments regarding the opening on the following Monday, with some investors fearing a repeat of history while others believe the internal and external environments for A-shares have changed significantly [3] External Factors - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown, now in its ninth day, has delayed the release of key economic data, such as the non-farm payroll report, leading to a loss of market judgment [3] - The recent high valuations of technology stocks in A-shares have also contributed to this sentiment, with many tech stocks doubling in value since September and major shareholders cashing out [3] Historical Context - Historically, A-shares have shown a tendency to "follow down but not follow up" in response to U.S. market movements, as seen in March 2025 when both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks opened lower following a U.S. market adjustment [3] Key Factors for A-shares - Three critical factors may disrupt the usual correlation between A-shares and U.S. markets: 1. The normalization of policy support mechanisms [5] 2. The valuation advantage of A-shares, with the CSI 300 index trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 11 times, less than one-third of the Nasdaq technology sector [5] 3. Continuous inflow of northbound capital, with over 50 billion yuan net inflow since October, focusing on growth sectors like AI and new energy [5] Sector Performance - In the face of external volatility, internal structural differentiation within A-shares is expected, with export-dependent technology stocks (e.g., consumer electronics, photovoltaics) likely to face pressure, while domestic demand sectors such as liquor, infrastructure, and counter-cyclical themes like rare earths and gold may become safe havens for capital [5] - The Shenzhen Development and Reform Commission announced that local semiconductor company Xinkailai will participate in the Bay Chip Exhibition, promising "surprises," which may help mitigate negative sentiment in the tech sector [5] Market Outlook - The performance of the 30-day moving average around 3847 points will be crucial for the market on the following Monday. If this level is maintained, a rotation to new leading sectors may occur post-adjustment in technology stocks; if it is lost, the market may enter a phase of volatility and bottom-seeking [5] - Some institutions have already begun to exit high-valuation sectors (e.g., CPO, Cambrian) in favor of low-valuation financial stocks, indicating the initiation of an internal hedging mechanism [5] - Current market sentiment resembles that of early 2020 during the pandemic, characterized by excess fear but no liquidity crisis, with the tech sector having already released some risk [5]

（原标题：万斯称"特朗普愿意与中国进行理性谈判"！"TACO"交易再次上演） 大家好，特朗普的"TACO"交易再次上演，副总统万斯释放缓和信号之后，加密货币市场开始上涨了。 突然上涨 10月12日晚间，美国副总统万斯在接受采访时，针对特朗普的最新关税威胁，释放了一些缓和的信号。 万斯在节目中表示："特朗普愿意与中国进行理性谈判。" 此前，特朗普宣布，将自11月1日起对中国商品加征100%的关税，并限制某些美国软件的出口。 华创证券研报称，"TACO"——"Trump Always Chickens Out "是2025年特朗普上台以来华尔街流行的一 种投资策略，即特朗普执政期间往往采取"强硬态度获得谈判筹码、最终让步达成协议"的外交行为，形 成资本市场冲击回撤后反弹修复的交易模式。 万斯表示，他周六和周日都与特朗普通话。万斯说，总统"珍视他与中方建立的友谊"，但他补充 说："我们拥有很多筹码。我的希望——我也知道总统的希望——是我们不必动用这些筹码。" 广发证券最新研报称，今年4月中美关税升级已经证明，美方威胁的100%关税水平其很难承担且失去了 经济学意义，此举更像是谈判前的极限施压。事实上，在今年已经过去 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market capitalization of major U.S. tech companies dropped by a total of $770 billion (approximately 5.5 trillion RMB) following tariff threats from Trump, significantly impacting major indices like NASDAQ and S&P 500 [1] Group 1: Market Impact - The stock prices of Amazon, Nvidia, and Tesla each fell by approximately 5% [1] - The NASDAQ Composite Index declined by 3.6%, while the S&P 500 Index fell by 2.7%, marking the largest single-day drop since April of this year [1] Group 2: Company-Specific Losses - Nvidia's market capitalization decreased by nearly $229 billion, despite being the first company to reach a market cap of $4.5 trillion [1] - Tesla's market value evaporated by $71 billion, while Amazon lost $121 billion in market capitalization [1] - Microsoft's market cap decreased by $85 billion, and Alphabet and Meta saw their stock prices drop by 2% and nearly 4%, respectively [1] Group 3: After-Hours Trading - In after-hours trading, Amazon, Nvidia, and Tesla experienced an additional decline of about 2% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Stocks experienced their worst day since April due to new tariff threats and trade talks, reviving market concerns related to trade issues from earlier in the year [1] Group 1 - The market's decline was significantly influenced by renewed fears surrounding trade negotiations and tariff implementations [1] - This downturn reflects the ongoing volatility in the market related to trade policies, which has been a recurring theme throughout the year [1] - Investors are reminded of the potential impacts of trade tensions on stock performance, highlighting the sensitivity of the market to such developments [1]

Group 1 - Pfizer's stock has increased by 6.79% this week, marking a total rise of 15.30% over four consecutive days, reaching a new high since January 2025 [1] - The rise in Pfizer's stock price has positively impacted other pharmaceutical companies, including AstraZeneca, Sanofi, GlaxoSmithKline, Eli Lilly, Boehringer Ingelheim, and Merck [1] - Pfizer has entered a three-year drug tariff exemption agreement with the U.S. government, allowing the company to avoid tariffs previously proposed by former President Trump [1] Group 2 - The agreement includes a commitment from Pfizer to offer discounts of up to 85% on various medications for common conditions, ensuring patients can access drugs at lower prices [1] - This strategic move reflects Pfizer's flexibility in pricing to secure political stability amid macroeconomic pressures in the pharmaceutical industry [2] - Analysts view the agreement as a positive signal for Pfizer and the pharmaceutical sector, potentially increasing market confidence and serving as a model for other companies [2] Group 3 - Pfizer's commitment to invest in research and development and plans to relocate some production facilities back to the U.S. indicate a long-term strategy to address government pressures on trade and pricing policies [3] - The company's actions provide a more stable foundation for future planning in a volatile market environment, while investors are advised to maintain a cautiously optimistic approach [3]

Group 1 - COMEX gold inventory recorded at 1220.24 tons on September 18, an increase of 1.52 tons from the previous trading day [1][2] - COMEX gold price closed at $3678.20 per ounce on September 18, down 0.44%, with an intraday high of $3707.30 and a low of $3660.50 [1][2] Group 2 - Canadian and Mexican leaders committed to closely coordinate before high-risk trade agreement reviews with the U.S. next year, amid U.S. President Trump's tariff threats [2] - The meeting in Mexico City marked a strengthening of Canada-Mexico relations, with both leaders seeking to persuade Trump to lower import tariffs on steel, automobiles, and agricultural products [2]

Group 1 - Trump's recent claim of imposing a 200% tariff on China for magnetic materials is seen as a performative threat rather than a feasible policy [1][3] - The exaggerated tariff figures, such as 500% on Russian oil and gas purchases, indicate a lack of actionable policy and are more about gaining attention [3][4] - China's export regulations on rare earth materials are focused on compliance and traceability rather than outright restrictions, aimed at preventing military misuse [3][4] Group 2 - China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs has firmly stated that Trump's threats do not alter China's established principles regarding trade [4][6] - The ongoing trade war has not led to the anticipated economic collapse of China, which has shown resilience, while the U.S. faces rising inflation and debt [6][8] - The rhetoric from U.S. leaders, including extreme tariff claims, is increasingly viewed as empty threats, diminishing America's credibility on the global stage [6][8]

Group 1 - The three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.32%, Nasdaq up 0.21%, and S&P 500 up 0.24%, reaching both intraday and closing historical highs [1] - Technology stocks showed mixed performance, with Intel rising over 2%, while Nvidia fell 0.09% and dropped over 5% in after-hours trading due to disappointing data center revenue [1] - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September increased to 88.7%, as the New York Fed President stated the need to observe data before making decisions [1] Group 2 - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell sharply by 2.58%, with Meituan experiencing a significant drop of 9.7% post-earnings [1] - The electric vehicle sector saw declines across the board, with Li Auto down over 8%, Xpeng down nearly 7%, and NIO down over 5% [1] - Major e-commerce players also faced losses, with JD.com down over 3% and Alibaba down 1.58% [1] Group 3 - Nvidia's weak data center revenue may dampen sentiment in the tech sector, although its Q3 revenue guidance of $54 billion exceeded expectations [1] - Despite high expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, tariff threats and geopolitical risks continue to disrupt the market [1]

Group 1 - The international gold price experienced a decline due to a stronger dollar, but concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve, triggered by President Trump's threats, provided some support for gold [3] - Trump's new round of tariffs against China and a 50% tariff on India are raising economic growth concerns, which may weaken the attractiveness of the dollar and other U.S. assets, benefiting gold [3] - Technical analysis indicates that gold still has bullish potential as long as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above 50, with a "golden cross" formation observed between the 21-day and 50-day moving averages [5] Group 2 - The suggested trading strategy for gold includes buying near 3376 with a stop loss at 3365 and targets at 3393 and 3400, while selling near 3401 with a stop loss at 3410 and a target at 3380 [6] - Despite a late surge in gold prices, the market remains cautious due to the potential for a bearish daily close, indicating a need for flexible trading positions [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Indian stock market is experiencing significant pressure due to escalating tariff threats from the U.S., leading to a pessimistic sentiment among investors [1][3]. Group 1: Tariff Impact - The U.S. Department of Homeland Security announced a 50% tariff on all Indian goods starting August 27, which is a response to India's purchase of Russian oil [1]. - This tariff increase is part of a broader strategy by the Trump administration to compel Russia to engage in peace talks regarding Ukraine [2]. - The new tariffs are expected to directly impact India's already slowing economic growth, potentially reducing the annual growth rate by 0.6 to 0.8 percentage points according to Citigroup [5]. Group 2: Market Reaction - The MSCI India Index has underperformed the MSCI Emerging Markets Index for four consecutive months, lagging by over 15 percentage points this year, heading towards its worst annual performance in over two decades [1]. - Foreign investors are accelerating their exit from the Indian market, with net selling of Indian stocks for the second consecutive month in August [3]. - Concerns over fiscal deficit expansion are also pressuring the Indian bond market, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year government bond rising by 22 basis points this month [4]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - Analysts warn that if the 50% tariff persists, the impact on India's GDP could be as high as 1%, affecting monetary policy and bond yields [5]. - Despite recent tax cuts introduced by Prime Minister Modi aimed at boosting the economy, sectors like banking and IT are expected to face continued pressure on profitability [5]. - The Reserve Bank of India has indicated that the impact of tariffs may be minimal, and the ongoing monetary easing could support economic growth [6].