新华财经纽约8月1日电白宫31日晚发布公告说，美国总统特朗普当日援引1977年美国《国际紧急经济权 力法》（IEEPA）等法律签署行政令，调整从69个贸易伙伴进口商品所适用的从价关税税率。 白宫发布的附件一信息显示，包括欧盟在内，绝大多数这些贸易伙伴的商品在进入美国市场时将适用从 10%至40%不等的所谓"对等关税"税率。其中，适用15%税率的国家或地区有40个，适用19%或20%税 率的国家或地区有10个。 公告表示，新的关税税率将在行政令发布7天后开始实施，但有些情况则例外。一些附件中的贸易伙伴 已经同意或接近完成与美国达成贸易和安全协议，但在这些协议完成并正式确认前仍将适用新的税率。 通过转运以逃避关税的物品将适用40%的从价关税并接受其他处罚和税费等。 值得注意的是，公告说，除另有明确规定外，没有被列入附件一的贸易伙伴商品将适用10%的额外从价 关税。来自中国产品所适用的关税税率不受这一行政令的影响。 特朗普表示，该行政令同样旨在应对大规模和持续商品贸易逆差对美国国家安全和经济带来的威胁以及 在4月2日行政令中所宣布的国家紧急状态。 特朗普此前先后致信20多个贸易伙伴的领导人，称将从8月1日起对这些贸 ...

我是帮主郑重，20年财经老枪，今儿三句话拆透特朗普的"关税组合拳"有多狠！ 特朗普这回的贸易战"组合拳"打得够刁钻——一边对全球铜产品抡起50%关税大棒，一边逼韩国签下"不平等条约"。先说韩国这头：15%的汽车关税看似 比7月初放风的25%"温和"，但韩国付出的代价是实打实的3500亿美元"买路钱"！这笔钱名义上是投资美国控制的基建、半导体项目，实则让韩国企业沦 为美方"提款机"，连李在明政府都坦言"汽车关税15%令人遗憾"。更扎心的是，韩国还得吞下1000亿美元美国液化天然气订单，硬塞给自家能源市场。 这协议藏着三重玄机： 全球供应链暗涌已起！ 特朗普同天加码铜产品50%关税（涵盖铜管、线缆、电子元件），简直是给全球制造业"上枷锁"。韩国LG电缆、三星电机这些核 心部件商成本瞬间飙升，更可怕的是连锁反应——铜价暴涨可能让新能源车、光伏的"平价梦"碎一地。 帮主锐评：中长线投资者盯紧三件事！ • 避险资产窗口期：黄金上周玩"过山车"，但美国实际利率见顶+地缘风险未消，急跌就是中长线捡筹码机会； • "关税免疫"型赛道：像英维克这种机构、北向、游资三路合力的硬逻辑股（昨天净流入9.27亿），才是贸易乱局中的诺亚 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shenzhen Xinxing Company expects a net loss attributable to shareholders of the parent company for the first half of 2025 to be between -23.5 million and -15.7 million yuan, indicating a reduction in losses compared to the previous year [2] Financial Performance - The expected net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company for the same period last year was -57.34 million yuan, with a total profit of -55.01 million yuan [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company, excluding non-recurring gains and losses, is projected to be between -29.5 million and -19.7 million yuan [2] - The basic earnings per share for the previous year was -0.36 yuan [2] Reasons for Performance - The primary reasons for the expected loss include: 1. Significant fluctuations in aluminum ingot prices due to the tariff trade war, leading to increased production costs and a decrease in overall gross profit margin by approximately 10 million yuan [3] 2. Increased sales revenue from aluminum foil raw materials, resulting in higher accounts receivable and an expected credit impairment loss increase of about 5 million yuan compared to the first quarter [3] 3. The cold rolling production line for aluminum foil raw materials was in the debugging phase, causing lower than expected yield rates and a decline in gross profit margin, although the production line has since stabilized [3] Company Background - Shenzhen Xinxing Company, established on July 23, 1992, is located in the High-tech Industrial Park in Bao'an District, Shenzhen, and was listed on August 7, 2017 [5] - The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of aluminum grain refiners [5] - In 2024, the company reported an operating income of 2.563 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 62.32%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was -291 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 105.88% [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report maintains a view of buying precious metals on dips. The precious metals market may follow the safe - haven logic under the escalation of the tariff trade war or the logic of enhanced interest - rate cuts when tariff concerns ease. The mid - to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish, but London gold has been in a range - bound oscillation since late April. The short - term focus is on the battle around the 3300 area for gold, with support at 3200 and resistance at 3365 and then 3400; for London silver, the support is in the 36 - 36.2 area, strong support at 35.3, and resistance at 37 - 37.3. The operation strategy is still to buy on pullbacks [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes Review - On Wednesday, the precious metals market saw gold oscillate and silver adjust. The U.S. dollar index oscillated weakly, U.S. bond yields decreased significantly, U.S. stocks and Bitcoin rose, crude oil oscillated, and the South China Non - ferrous Metals Index declined. COMEX gold 2508 contract closed at $3322.5 per ounce, up 0.17%; U.S. silver 2509 contract closed at $36.605 per ounce, down 0.39%. SHFE gold 2510 main contract closed at 766.82 yuan per gram, down 1%; SHFE silver 2510 contract closed at 8899 yuan per kilogram, down 0.2% [2]. - The Fed's June FOMC meeting minutes showed increased differences among officials regarding the prospect of interest - rate cuts. Most officials believed that tariffs might continuously push up inflation, while a few were willing to consider an interest - rate cut at the next meeting. The reasons for the differences were the uncertainty of tariff policies and their impact on inflation, as well as the government's pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates [2]. 3.2 Interest - Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - Interest - rate cut expectations have slightly increased overall. According to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping the interest rate unchanged in July is 93.3%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 6.7%. In September, the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 31.1%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 64.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 4.5%. In October, the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 10.2%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 42%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 44.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 3% [3]. - Long - term funds: SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 0.86 tons to 947.37 tons, and iShares Silver ETF holdings increased by 31.9 tons to 14966.24 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 13.8 tons to 1320.9 tons, and as of the week ending July 4, SGX silver inventory decreased by 3.3 tons to 1319.9 tons [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - On Thursday at 21:00, 2025 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Mousalem will speak on the U.S. economy and monetary policy. - On Friday at 02:30, 2027 FOMC voter and San Francisco Fed President Daly will speak on the U.S. economic outlook [4]. 3.4 Precious Metals Futures and Spot Price Table - The table shows the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE and SGX gold and silver futures and spot contracts, as well as the gold - silver ratio of CME and the price differences between SHFE and TD [6]. 3.5 Inventory and Position Table - The table presents the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE and CME gold and silver inventories, SHFE gold and silver positions, and SPDR gold and SLV silver positions [15][16]. 3.6 Stock, Bond, and Commodity Summary - The table shows the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of the U.S. dollar index, U.S. dollar - RMB exchange rate, Dow Jones Industrial Index, WTI crude oil spot price, LmeS copper 03 price, 10 - year U.S. bond yield, 10 - year U.S. real interest rate, and 10 - 2 - year U.S. bond yield spread [22].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalation of the trade war initiated by President Trump in 2025, focusing on the implications for various asset classes including U.S. stocks, bonds, the dollar, and gold, amidst rising economic policy uncertainty and potential inflationary pressures [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Policy Uncertainty - Since March 2025, the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index has reached unprecedented levels, indicating significant uncertainty in U.S. economic policy, particularly following the announcement of "super tariffs" [2]. - The index's daily average in Q1 2025 surpassed any quarter during Trump's first term, even exceeding levels seen during the early COVID-19 pandemic [2]. Group 2: U.S. Stock Market - The S&P 500 index experienced a sharp decline of over 10% in early April 2025, marking the largest drop since 2020, but rebounded by 9.5% the day after Trump announced a 90-day pause on new tariffs [2]. - Overall, despite volatility, the S&P 500 recovered and reached a historical high in June 2025 [2]. Group 3: U.S. Treasury Bonds - In April 2025, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose from 3.96% to 4.6%, a three-year high, contrary to typical behavior during risk shocks [4]. - This rise in yield was attributed to concerns over cost-push inflation, declining tolerance for U.S. fiscal deficits, and a liquidity squeeze due to leveraged fund sell-offs [4]. Group 4: U.S. Dollar - The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell from 104.2 to 96.8 by July 1, 2025, representing a decline of approximately 10.7% since the beginning of the year [5]. - Factors contributing to this decline included foreign capital selling U.S. Treasuries, expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, and increasing doubts about U.S. policy stability [5]. Group 5: Gold - Gold prices surged to over $3,300 per ounce in mid-April 2025, reflecting a year-to-date increase of around 27% [6]. - The rise in gold prices was driven by significant inflows into global ETFs and increased purchases by central banks, particularly in China, India, and Russia [6]. Group 6: Comparison with Previous Trade War - The article compares the market reactions between the 2018-2019 trade war and the 2025 tariff conflict, highlighting differences in stock performance, bond yields, dollar strength, and gold prices [8]. - The 2019 trade war saw a "soft landing" due to rapid Fed rate cuts and a bilateral framework agreement, while the current situation faces more constraints due to persistent inflation and high interest rates [8]. Group 7: Future Outlook - The future market direction heavily depends on the outcomes of negotiations between the U.S. and other countries regarding tariffs [9]. - A resolution could lead to a sustained stock market rally, while an escalation in trade conflicts may result in increased market volatility and a further decline in the dollar's safe-haven status, with gold remaining a reliable asset [9].

Report Overview - Report title: Nanhua Precious Metals Daily Report: Gold Down, Silver Stable [1] - Report date: July 9, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The medium to long - term outlook for precious metals is bullish, but London gold has been range - bound since late April. In the short term, attention should be paid to the battle around the 3300 area for gold, with support at 3200 and resistance at 3365 and then 3400. For London silver, support is at 36.4, strong support at 35.3, and resistance at 37 - 37.3. The trading strategy is to buy on dips [6] Summary by Directory Market Review - On Tuesday, the precious metals market saw gold decline and silver remain stable. The tariff trade war situation became clearer before July 9, and the negotiation window was extended to August 1, weakening gold's safe - haven demand. COMEX gold 2508 closed at $3311 per ounce, down 0.95%; SHFE gold 2510 closed at 776.22 yuan per gram, up 0.43%. COMEX silver 2509 closed at $36.925 per ounce, up 0.06%; SHFE silver 2510 closed at 8953 yuan per kilogram, up 0.22%. The US trade policy has drawn responses from many countries [2] Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - Interest rate cut expectations are generally stable. The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 95.3%, and 4.7% for a 25 - basis - point cut. In September, the probability of unchanged rates is 34.3%, 62.8% for a 25 - basis - point cut, and 3% for a 50 - basis - point cut. SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 1.15 tons to 946.51 tons, while iShares Silver ETF holdings increased by 66.41 tons to 14935.15 tons. SHFE silver inventory increased by 4 tons to 1334.7 tons, and SGX silver inventory decreased by 3.3 tons to 1319.9 tons as of July 4 [3] This Week's Focus - This week's data is light. Key events include the Fed's release of monetary policy meeting minutes at 2:00 on Thursday, a speech by 2025 FOMC voter, St. Louis Fed President Mousalem on the US economy and monetary policy at 21:00 on Thursday, and a speech by 2027 FOMC voter, San Francisco Fed President Daly on the US economic outlook at 02:30 on Friday [4] Precious Metals Price Table - SHFE gold main contract closed at 776.22 yuan per gram, up 0.64%; CME gold main contract closed at $3311 per ounce, down 1.06%. SHFE silver main contract closed at 8953 yuan per kilogram, up 0.91%; CME silver main contract closed at $36.925 per ounce, down 0.04%. The CME gold - silver ratio was 89.6682, down 1.02% [7] Inventory and Position Table - SHFE gold inventory was 21,558 kilograms, up 0.48%; CME gold inventory was 1146.9974 tons, up 0.43%. SHFE gold positions were 179,131 lots, up 1.92%. SHFE silver inventory was 1334.731 tons, up 0.3%; CME silver inventory was 15487.4574 tons, down 0.07%. SHFE silver positions were 338,144 lots, up 47.35% [17][18] Stock, Bond, and Commodity Summary - The US dollar index was 97.5101, down 0.04%; the US dollar against the Chinese yuan was 7.1803, up 0.09%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was 44,406.36 points, down 0.94%. WTI crude oil spot was $67.93 per barrel, up 2.15%. The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.4%, up 1.15% [23]

Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of ¥3,899,221,052.08, representing a year-on-year increase of 77.32% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was ¥87,776,342.74, a decrease of 41.47% compared to the previous year [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was ¥126,944,501.75, an increase of 6.62% year-on-year [3] Group 2: Share Buyback and Incentives - As of March 31, 2025, the company held 4,553,864 shares in its buyback account, accounting for 4.38% of the total share capital, with a total buyback expenditure of approximately ¥10,104 million [2] - The repurchased shares are intended for future implementation of equity incentive or employee stock ownership plans [3] Group 3: Business Strategy and Market Position - The company focuses on cross-border chemical logistics supply chain services and adjusts marketing strategies in response to fluctuations in shipping costs [2] - The company is actively involved in the export trade of second-hand fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles, leveraging its comprehensive logistics service advantages [3] - The growth in revenue is driven by various business segments, with detailed contributions and growth factors outlined in the annual report [3] Group 4: Future Developments - The company is awaiting approval from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange and the China Securities Regulatory Commission for its upcoming issuance plans [3] - The company emphasizes the importance of keeping investors informed through official announcements regarding future developments [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PVC market is facing weak cost, demand, high production, and inventory, with a low valuation and weak driving force, expected to oscillate weakly. The caustic soda market shows a strong current situation but weak expectations, with short - term tight supply in some areas and a likely peak in spot prices, and a mid - term weakening trend. The styrene market has a high valuation and a tendency towards loose supply and demand, suggesting short - selling at high prices. The rubber market is expected to oscillate widely in the short term. The urea market has an oversupply situation, and it's not advisable to bottom - fish during a unilateral decline. The methanol market is expected to oscillate, with relatively loose supply and increased downstream olefin开工率. The polyolefin market is expected to oscillate widely in the short term. The soda ash market has limited upward space for the futures price despite short - term sentiment improvement [2][3][5]. Summary by Product PVC - **Price**: On June 5, the PVC 09 contract closed at 4747 yuan/ton (- 87), with different market prices in different regions [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Long - term demand is dragged down by the real estate industry, exports are restricted, and supply pressure is high in the third quarter. Inventory is slightly lower than last year, and the market is mainly driven by the macro - environment [2]. - **Outlook**: Expected to oscillate weakly, with a focus on the 4800 yuan/ton line. Stimulus policies may support the price, while trade frictions may pressure it [2]. Caustic Soda - **Price**: On June 5, the caustic soda SH09 contract closed at 2332 yuan/ton (- 35), with different market prices in Shandong [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply has high - level production and new capacity expectations, and there will be a production decline during mid - June due to maintenance. Demand from the alumina industry has uncertain复产 expectations, and non - aluminum demand is affected by tariffs [3]. - **Outlook**: Short - term local supply may be tight, but the spot price is likely to peak. In the mid - term, it will oscillate weakly, and short - selling is recommended for the 09 contract, with a focus on the 2400 yuan/ton line [3]. Styrene - **Price**: On June 5, the styrene main contract was 7085 (- 5) yuan/ton, with different raw material prices [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: Crude oil has short - term support and mid - term loose supply expectations. Pure benzene supply is increasing, and styrene supply is expected to recover in June. Downstream demand is weak [5]. - **Outlook**: High valuation and loose supply - demand, recommend short - selling at high prices, with a focus on the 7200 yuan/ton line [5]. Rubber - **Price and Inventory**: On June 5, the rubber market oscillated slightly. As of June 1, inventory in Qingdao decreased, and tire enterprise capacity utilization declined [6]. - **Outlook**: Expected to oscillate widely in the short term, depending on macro - news and sentiment [6]. Urea - **Price and Supply - Demand**: The urea 09 contract fell 2.88% to 1722 yuan/ton, with a strong basis. Supply is high, and demand from agriculture and some industries is limited [7]. - **Outlook**: The oversupply situation remains unchanged. It's not advisable to bottom - fish during a decline, and the 09 contract is expected to operate between 1650 - 1850 yuan/ton [7]. Methanol - **Price and Supply - Demand**: The methanol 09 contract rose 0.49% to 2259 yuan/ton. Supply is relatively loose, and the downstream olefin开工率 increased, while traditional demand is in the off - season [8]. - **Outlook**: Expected to oscillate, with the 09 contract operating between 2150 - 2300 yuan/ton [8]. Polyolefin - **Price and Supply - Demand**: On June 5, the L and PP main contracts had different price changes. Supply is expected to increase in the future, and demand is in the traditional off - season, with a certain inventory reduction trend [9][10]. - **Outlook**: Expected to oscillate widely in the short term, with the L2509 operating between 6950 - 7350 yuan/ton and the PP2509 between 6850 - 7200 yuan/ton [10]. Soda Ash - **Price and Supply - Demand**: The futures price rebounded at night, and the spot market is weak. Supply is increasing, and downstream demand from glass industries is poor [11]. - **Outlook**: Limited upward space for the futures price, and a short recommendation for the 01 contract [11].

Group 1: Interest Rates and Bonds - HSBC suggests that without support from the Bank of Japan, the Japanese government bond yield curve may continue to steepen due to unfavorable factors leading to a prolonged steep curve [1] - The clarity of Japan's fiscal policy trajectory and the Bank of Japan's bond purchasing plan will be crucial for stabilizing the long-term yield curve in the coming weeks [1] Group 2: Commodity Prices - ANZ analysts report that a weaker US dollar and tight market supply are expected to drive up base metal prices, with copper rising 1.2% to $9,614 per ton [2] - Concerns about the economic backdrop are limiting the price increases of other base metals, although aluminum market supply growth is slowing, which may keep the overall market tight [2] Group 3: Trade and Travel - The Royal Bank of Canada indicates that trade tensions are reshaping Canadian travel plans, potentially boosting domestic consumption while widening the US trade deficit [3] - A notable decline in Canadians returning from the US was observed, with a 20% drop in air travel and a 26% drop in car travel in April [3] Group 4: US Fiscal Policy - CICC reports that the "one big beautiful bill" passed in the House is likely to significantly increase the US fiscal deficit over the next decade, with a debt issuance wave expected between July and September [4] - The report highlights that the US may not have the conditions to effectively reduce the deficit due to structural issues and global competition [4] Group 5: Market Trends - Zhongyuan Securities suggests focusing on sectors like power equipment, grid equipment, and cultural media, as the market is expected to steadily trend upwards [5] - CITIC Securities notes that the trade war is causing structural changes in the global stock market, with a shift in capital allocation towards financial and technology sectors [6] Group 6: Nuclear Industry - CITIC Securities indicates that the controllable nuclear fusion industry is expected to accelerate due to favorable policies, increased financing, and technological advancements [7] - Huatai Securities sees opportunities in the nuclear power equipment sector as uranium prices recover and global nuclear energy policies strengthen [8]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing trade war and tariff policies are deemed dangerous and detrimental to global economic balance, with a call for new rules in the international monetary system as the dominance of the US dollar wanes [1][3][4]. Group 1: International Monetary System - The US dollar's dominance in the global monetary system is gradually decreasing, with the US currently holding about 25% of the global economy, a figure that is on the decline [3]. - The future of reserve currencies may involve shared privileges among other countries, particularly the Eurozone and potentially the Chinese yuan, although the latter's status as a reserve currency will take time to establish [3][4]. - The unpredictability of US economic policies raises questions about the future of the dollar as a reserve currency, especially in light of significant fiscal deficits and debt levels [3][4]. Group 2: Trade War Implications - The recent surge in US Treasury yields, with 30-year yields nearing 5% and 10-year yields surpassing 4.5%, is attributed to the uncertainties stemming from the trade war [4]. - The trade war is viewed as a significant risk to global economic stability, with concerns about the predictability of the US economy leading to market volatility [4]. - A recent pause in the US-China trade war has provided some stability to financial markets, as evidenced by a decline in gold prices following the Geneva economic talks [4][5].