期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货锡年报 需求长期支撑 供给扰动节奏 20251215 作者：姜世东 交易咨询号：Z0020059 审核人：孙伟涛，从业资格号：F0276620，交易咨询号：Z0014688 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整审性核人，：建孙议伟投涛资，者从业谨资慎格判号断：，F0据276此62入0，市交，易风咨险询号自：担Z。0014688 8 进出口 2 宏观情况 3 技术分析 4 产业链 期现 5 库存 成本利润 6 供给 7 需求 1 年度观点及策略 年度观点及策略 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 年度观点 0769-22110802 从业资格号：F03126164 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 u 行情：2025 年沪锡价格整体1-10月份宽幅震荡，年底创下三年半新高，年内涨幅约30%。年末上涨行情由供应端 收缩、宏观面宽松 ...

经济观察网据每经网，受美联储降息预期升温、全球供应紧张加剧以及被列入美国"关键矿产"清单等多 重因素推动，白银价格12月9日强势突破每盎司60美元关口，创下历史新高。今年以来，白银涨幅已接 近110%，表现远超黄金和铂金。 截至发稿，现货白银报61.21美元/盎司，涨幅0.94%。作为对比，尽管黄金今年也上涨了60%并突破4200 美元大关，但在涨幅力度上仍逊色于白银，导致金银比价降至70倍以下，为2021年7月以来首次。 ...

«——【·前言·】——» 据观察者网12月4日消息，欧盟新闻网站Euractiv报道称，12月3日欧盟正式推出一项名 为"ResourceEU"的关键原材料计划，该计划将重点关注关键矿产领域的回收、联合采购、储备和投 资，核心目标是降低欧洲对中国的依赖，同时避免欧中关系进一步紧张。 «——【·关键矿产卡脖子？·】——» 2025年12月初的欧洲政坛，被一份名为"ResourceEU"的计划搅得热度攀升。据观察者网援引欧盟新闻 网站Euractiv的报道，12月3日这天，欧盟正式抛出了这套针对关键原材料领域的重磅方案，字里行间 都透着对供应链安全的焦虑。 «——【·欧盟威慑·】——» 塞茹尔内的发言里，最让人提神的还得是那句狠话：要是"ResourceEU"计划没能达到预期效果，欧盟 还是没法实现供应链多元化，依旧被中国"卡脖子"，一旦出现关键原材料断供导致产业链停摆的情况， 欧盟就不得不动用"反胁迫工具"。 这话一出口，立刻在国际舆论场上掀起了波澜，因为欧盟内部早就把这套"反胁迫工具"称作对外反制 的"核武器"，其威慑意味不言而喻。 这套被吹得神乎其神的"反胁迫工具"（ACI），本质上是一套经济威慑方案，20 ...

Report Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously Bullish [8] - Arbitrage: On Hold [8] - Options: Short Put [8] Core View - Recently, due to fluctuations in the market's expectations of the Fed's December interest rate cut and geopolitical factors in some regions, copper prices have declined. However, as copper prices fall, downstream purchasing enthusiasm has increased. With more price-fixing by downstream enterprises, some short-hedging positions in the processing end have been closed, providing support for copper prices at the 85,000 yuan/ton level. Currently, one can buy for hedging at the 85,000 - 85,500 yuan/ton level and sell for hedging above 89,000 yuan/ton [8]. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - **Futures Quotes**: On November 27, 2025, the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 87,200 yuan/ton and closed at 86,990 yuan/ton, a 0.46% change from the previous trading day's close. The night session opened at 86,800 yuan/ton and closed at 87,050 yuan/ton, a 0.02% decrease from the afternoon close [1]. - **Spot Situation**: According to SMM, on the previous day, the spot premium of SMM 1 electrolytic copper to the 2512 contract was 10 - 200 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 105 yuan/ton, a 25 yuan/ton increase from the previous day. The price range of electrolytic copper was 86,910 - 87,260 yuan/ton. Import losses widened to over a thousand yuan, market trading became lighter, and both procurement and sales intentions declined. Due to copper prices returning to around 87,000 yuan/ton and month-end settlement factors, downstream procurement slowed. Supplies of Jinchuan and Guixi decreased, and some holders quoted a premium of 200 yuan/ton. Shanghai Jintun large plates with a premium of around 150 yuan/ton were quickly traded, indicating a tight supply of high-quality copper. The trading of flat copper was average with regional differences. As it entered the end of the month, there was still a demand for current-month invoices, and the trading of next-month invoices might be relatively dull [2]. - **Important Information Summary**: Geopolitically, Russian President Putin said that a US delegation will visit Moscow next week. He reiterated that Russia generally agrees to use the US list for resolving the Ukraine issue as the basis for future negotiations. He also stated that if the Ukrainian armed forces withdraw from the areas they currently control, Russia will stop military operations; otherwise, Russia will use military means to achieve its goals. In terms of interest rates, the European Central Bank released its October meeting minutes, explaining the reasons for keeping rates unchanged at that meeting, strengthening the market's expectation that the current interest rate cut cycle has ended. European Central Bank Governing Council member Kazaks said that given that inflation in the eurozone may still be higher than expected, it is too early to discuss another interest rate cut [3]. Supply Side - **Mine End**: On November 26, the Canadian government launched a national security review of the proposed merger between Anglo American and Teck Resources. The review will focus on the impact of the transaction on key minerals and related supply chains. Copper is considered a key mineral in Canada. Teck Resources and Anglo American have promised to invest approximately C$4.5 billion over five years, but most of this (including the expansion project of the Highland Valley copper mine) was previously announced by Teck Resources. Anglo American also proposed to move its global headquarters from London to Vancouver and rename itself "Anglo Teck." Market insiders said that Canada still wants Anglo American to further relocate its headquarters to Canada [4]. - **Smelting and Import**: The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) Secretary-General Paul White said at the 2025 Asian World Copper Conference on November 27 that the global copper market will face a supply shortage of 150,000 tons in 2026. Global copper mine production is expected to increase by 2.3% in 2026, while global apparent refined copper consumption is expected to increase by 2.1% in the coming year. White also said that the copper production growth rate is expected to slow to 0.9% in 2026, compared with a 3.4% growth rate expected in 2025. These data are consistent with the ICSG's previous forecast in its October statement. On November 26, Chilean copper giant Codelco made a record-high offer to Chinese copper buyers, causing some Chinese enterprises to announce that they will abandon next year's long-term contracts. The applicability of this benchmark offer to Chinese buyers has also raised more and more questions. According to three informed sources, Codelco's offer to Chinese buyers is $350 per ton higher than the LME price, a significant increase from the $89 per ton negotiated last year. This offer is a "take it or leave it" final proposal, and buyers are expected to make decisions starting next week [5]. Demand Side - **Consumption**: According to customs data, in October, China imported 1,155.1 tons of copper tubes, a 41.31% month-on-month increase and an 8.37% year-on-year decrease; the cumulative import volume was 15,585.2 tons, a 10.77% cumulative year-on-year decrease. In October, China exported 25,287.9 tons of copper tubes, a 2.33% month-on-month decrease and an 18.57% year-on-year decrease; the cumulative export volume was 309,326.6 tons, a 0.16% cumulative year-on-year increase [6]. Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 75.00 tons to 157,175 tons compared with the previous trading day. SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 3,952 tons to 35,873 tons. On November 27, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 173,500 tons, a decrease of 71,000 tons compared with the previous week [7]. Strategy - **Copper**: Cautiously Bullish. Currently, one can buy for hedging at the 85,000 - 85,500 yuan/ton level and sell for hedging above 89,000 yuan/ton [8]. - **Arbitrage**: On Hold [8] - **Options**: Short Put [8]

Domestic Market Overview - The domestic market experienced a weak consolidation and downward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3834.89 points, down 2.45% [1][4] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12538.07 points, down 3.41%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 4.02% [1][4] - The total trading volume of the A-share market was 198.36 billion yuan, showing a slight decrease compared to the previous day [1][4] - All 30 sectors of the CITIC first-level industries declined, with the comprehensive, non-ferrous metals, and basic chemicals sectors showing the least decline [1][4] Overseas Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices all closed higher, with the Dow Jones rising by 1.08%, the S&P 500 increasing by 0.98%, and the Nasdaq up by 0.88% [2][4] - Notable gainers included Home Depot, which rose over 3%, and Merck, which increased nearly 3% [2][4] - Chinese concept stocks mostly rose, with Tuya Smart gaining nearly 7% and Canadian Solar rising over 5% [2][4] News Highlights - Chinese Premier Li Qiang attended the G20 Leaders' Summit, discussing global challenges such as climate change and food security [3][11] - The 2025 China 5G + Industrial Internet Conference was held in Wuhan, focusing on the integration of industrial internet and artificial intelligence [3][17] - Wenta Technology urged ASML Netherlands to respond to control issues to ensure global supply chain stability [3][19] Market Drivers - The A-share market saw 354 stocks rise and 5072 decline, indicating a significant sell-off amid short-term panic [10] - The ongoing discussions between U.S. and Ukrainian representatives regarding the conflict with Russia have shown some progress, which may influence market sentiment [22][23]

Group 1 - The current challenges of climate change, energy, and food security require international cooperation and solidarity to address these issues effectively [2] - The G20 should enhance ecological and environmental cooperation, emphasizing scientific principles and shared responsibilities to improve development resilience [2] - China is willing to strengthen cooperation under the "Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework" and expedite the outcomes of the 30th Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change [2] Group 2 - There is a need for increased cooperation in green energy to facilitate a just transition and maintain stable supply chains for global green industries [2] - China aims to support global energy transitions and promote the free flow of related technologies and products [2] - Strengthening food security cooperation is essential to ensure stable supply and optimize global food circulation [2] Group 3 - The new wave of technological revolution and industrial transformation presents unprecedented development opportunities but may also create new inequalities [3] - The G20 should promote the widespread application and effective governance of artificial intelligence, encouraging research collaboration and sharing of results [3] - There is a call for mutual cooperation in critical minerals and their peaceful use, with an emphasis on protecting the interests of developing countries [3] Group 4 - The summit adopted the "G20 South Africa Summit: Leaders' Declaration," indicating a collective commitment to the discussed initiatives [4] - During the summit, China engaged in friendly exchanges with leaders from various countries, including France, South Korea, Angola, and Spain [4]

Group 1 - The current challenges of climate change, energy, and food security require international cooperation and solidarity to address these issues effectively [2] - The G20 should enhance ecological and environmental cooperation, emphasizing the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities, and accelerate the implementation of international climate agreements [2] - China is willing to strengthen cooperation under the "Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework" and support global energy transition efforts [2] Group 2 - The new wave of technological revolution and industrial transformation presents unprecedented development opportunities but may also create new inequalities [3] - The G20 should promote the widespread application and effective governance of artificial intelligence, encouraging research collaboration and sharing of outcomes [3] - There is a need to enhance cooperation on critical minerals, ensuring equitable distribution of benefits and addressing security risks associated with military uses [3] Group 3 - Strengthening food security cooperation is essential to ensure stable supply chains and optimize global food circulation [2] - China aims to collaborate with other countries to implement international food security initiatives and enhance agricultural technology cooperation [2] - The G20 summit resulted in the adoption of the "G20 South Africa Summit: Leaders' Declaration" [3]

Group 1 - The theme of the G20 summit is "Unity, Equality, and Sustainability," with a strong emphasis on "Unity" as a key to overcoming global challenges [2] - The G20 was established in response to the Asian financial crisis in 1999 and has evolved to address various global economic issues, highlighting the importance of cooperation among diverse member states [2][3] - Current global challenges include unilateralism and protectionism, which threaten international cooperation and require the G20 to seek solutions to restore unity [2][3] Group 2 - The G20 should promote free trade and an open world economy to facilitate mutual benefits among nations, with China announcing initiatives to support industrialization in Africa and alleviate debt in developing countries [3][4] - Addressing climate change and ecological issues is crucial, with the G20 urged to enhance cooperation in environmental protection and achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement [4][5] - The G20 is called to strengthen global food security and ensure stable supply chains, particularly for countries facing hunger, by optimizing food distribution and enhancing agricultural cooperation [5][6] Group 3 - The rapid advancement of technology presents both opportunities and challenges, necessitating equitable access to development and the benefits of innovation for all nations [6][7] - The G20 should facilitate cooperation in artificial intelligence and critical minerals to ensure sustainable supply and resource security, while also addressing potential security risks [6][7] - Empowering developing countries, particularly in Africa, through capacity building and technological support is essential for inclusive global development [7][8]

Core Insights - South Africa is signaling new cooperation opportunities to global investors, particularly from China, in the context of global green transition and supply chain restructuring [1][2] - The South African Investment Conference held in Beijing emphasized the potential for collaboration in renewable energy, fintech, and agri-tech, highlighting the urgency for early participation [1][5] Renewable Energy - South Africa is actively promoting investments in renewable energy, including hydrogen, solar, and wind energy projects, creating ample opportunities for external investors [4][5] - The urgency for investment in renewable energy is underscored, with the potential for significant mutual benefits for both South Africa and China [5] Financial Services - The financial services sector in South Africa is mature and well-developed, presenting new growth opportunities, particularly in fintech [5] - South Africa encourages Chinese enterprises to engage in digital banking, payments, credit, and blockchain collaborations [5] Agriculture - Agriculture remains a crucial economic pillar for South Africa, with increasing opportunities for investment and collaboration in agri-tech [5] - The opening of the Chinese market has facilitated the entry of more South African products, enhancing bilateral agricultural cooperation [5] Key Mineral Resources - South Africa possesses abundant "critical minerals" essential for battery and renewable energy industries, ranking fifth globally in mining GDP contribution [2][8] - The country produces nearly 60% of the world's platinum group metals, providing a significant resource base for potential investors [2] Strategic Positioning - South Africa serves as a strategic gateway for Chinese investors looking to enter the African market, leveraging its industrialization and financial infrastructure [2][7] - The upcoming G20 summit in South Africa is expected to enhance the country's role in attracting high-quality investments and promoting sustainable development [2][6] Youth and Talent - South Africa has a relatively young population, which is adaptable to new technologies, providing a dynamic labor force for future industries [9] - The country’s industrial base and financial services support innovation, creating a conducive environment for technology-driven investments [9]

Group 1 - The G7 Foreign Ministers' meeting took place in Niagara, Ontario, Canada, on November 11-12, focusing on urgent global economic and security challenges [1] - Key discussion topics included maritime security and prosperity, economic resilience, energy security, and critical minerals [1] - The meeting will also address issues related to ceasefire agreements in Ukraine and Gaza [1] Group 2 - In addition to G7 member countries, invited participants included Ukraine, Brazil, India, Saudi Arabia, Australia, South Africa, South Korea, and Mexico [1]