Core Insights - The investment strategy for 2026 will shift from valuation-driven to a dual focus on earnings and valuation, emphasizing technology autonomy, domestic demand recovery, and high-dividend assets [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The low interest rate environment is prompting a reassessment of asset values, with a focus on stable returns while managing risks [2] - The "fixed income +" products are expected to experience a third round of expansion, with the scale surpassing 2 trillion yuan by mid-2025, driven by demand for alternatives following regulatory changes and a recovering equity market [2] Group 2: A-Share Market Outlook - The A-share market is anticipated to transition from external demand-driven growth to a balance of internal and external demand, with a potential earnings growth turning point in 2026 [2] - After three years of decline, A-share earnings showed signs of stabilization in 2025, with expectations for further growth in 2027 [2] Group 3: Investment Directions - Four main domestic investment themes have been identified: 1. Semiconductor and military industries, with significant demand expected in 2026 [3] 2. "Anti-involution" sectors like chemicals and new energy, benefiting from policy-driven supply-demand improvements [3] 3. Service sector consumption, with increased policy support expected to boost recovery in travel and dining [3] 4. Real estate industry chain, projected to rebound in the second half of 2026 after a prolonged downturn [3] Group 4: International Investment Strategy - The "barbell strategy" emphasizes investments in U.S. tech stocks, which are pivotal in the AI revolution, and Hong Kong stocks, known for their high dividend yields, which have outperformed tech indices over the past decade [3] Group 5: Technology Sector Opportunities - The technology sector is expected to see sustained momentum, driven by global AI advancements and China's technological rise, with a balanced focus on domestic and international capabilities [4] - Key developments in AI, such as the emergence of DeepSeek and advancements in reusable rockets, are seen as critical milestones for the industry [4] Group 6: AI Industry Growth - The AI industry is still in its early growth phase, with no substantial bubble present, as current valuations are reasonable compared to historical tech bubbles [5][6] - The focus on AI infrastructure is strong, with significant opportunities anticipated in cloud applications, edge devices, and autonomous technologies [6] Group 7: Investment Strategies - Investment strategies include a focus on established "white horse" stocks while diversifying into promising second-tier leaders and hidden champions [7] - Attention is drawn to the "sweet spot" of the industry cycle, with a focus on high-growth potential in the application phase of AI technologies [7]

今日市场迎来久违大涨行情，早盘市场小幅走高，午后急速拉升，券商板块集体异动大涨，带动市场人 气，CPO概念全天强势表现，截至收盘，三大股指涨幅均超1%！ 聚焦A股核心资产、全市场唯一尾号500的中证A500ETF华宝（563500）早盘表现温和，午后直线猛 拉，收盘放量大涨逾2%，强势站上所有均线，场内成交3585万元。值得注意的是，今日中证A500ETF 华宝盘中持续溢价，显示买盘资金较为活跃！ | 序号 | 代码 | 間称 | 权重 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 300750.SZ | 宁德时代 | 3.64% | 1.32% | | 2 | 600519.SH | 贵州茅台 | 3.37% | 0.78% | | 3 | 601318.SH | 中国平安 | 2.35% | 1.57% | | ব | 600036.SH | 招商银行 | 1.97% | -0.43% | | ട | 601899.SH | 紫金矿业 | 1.74% | 1.81% | | 6 | 300308.SZ | 中际旭创 | 1.69% | 6.92% | | 7 ...

12月17日，今日酒价最新披露数据显示，飞天茅台（2025散）批价连续3日企稳在1550元/瓶，飞天茅台 （2025散）批价上涨至1570元/瓶，蛇茅生肖酒批价上涨至1720元/瓶。贵州茅台股价及食品饮料ETF （515170.SH）也连续展开反弹。 回顾白酒行业历史上四起三落，三次调整周期都是经济与政策双向负面挤压的结果。参照上一轮调整周 期（2012~2016年）的三阶段演绎路径——阶段一，动销与批价加速下跌&报表端开始出清；阶段二， 动销与批价跌幅收窄&报表端持续出清；阶段三，动销与批价回升&报表端随后转正。 展望2026年，中国银河证券表示，12月重要会议将"扩大内需"放在重点工作首位，并且提出"制定实施 城乡居民增收计划""扩大优质商品和服务供给"，看好人均收入改善与内需复苏对食品饮料整体带来的 贝塔修复。 投资方面，关注食品饮料ETF（515170.SH），标的指数为中证细分食品饮料产业主题指数 （000815.CSI）。与酒ETF相比，食品饮料ETF（515170.SH）放弃三四线酒企，更加聚焦"茅五泸汾 洋"等一二线白酒龙头企业，合计权重近六成，在行业调整周期，龙头公司有望充分受益尾部出清后的 ...

♨博时基金市场异动陪伴 市场表现： 责任编辑：江钰涵 ♨博时基金市场异动陪伴 市场表现： 12月17日，沪深三大指数均涨超1%，创业板指涨超3%。 解析： ‼今日A股全线上涨，其背后是政策预期强化、资金面积极信号与科技板块情绪催化共同作用的结果。 一方面，中央经济工作会议精神的具体解读陆续释放，清晰传递了稳增长、扩内需的政策优先级，有效 稳定并提振了市场预期。另一方面，社保基金会明确将发挥长期资金作用支持科技创新，为成长股提供 了重要的资金面与信心支撑。同时，科技领域新股上市后的强劲表现，激发了市场对相关产业链的关注 热度，带动了通信、算力等板块的情绪。综合来看，市场在前期调整后，随着政策细节明朗与积极信号 累积，迎来了情绪与估值的同步修复。 ‼中央财办有关负责同志在中央经济工作会议后详解明年政策重点，清晰传递了扩大内需作为明年首要 任务的政策导向，要从供需两侧协同发力，包括提振消费、扩大投资及稳定房地产市场，明确对于新型 消费、新基建等领域的结构性支持。同时，关于货币政策保持流动性充裕、促进融资成本下行的表述， 进一步缓解了市场对资金环境的担忧。这一系统性阐述强化了经济回升向好的政策预期，有助于推动市 场风 ...

盘前要闻 1、中央财办有关负责同志：扩大内需是明年排在首位的重点任务 类型：宏观 情绪影响：正面 中央财办有关负责同志详解2025年中央经济工作会议精神。针对内需发展现状等问题，中央财办有关负 责同志表示，扩大内需是明年排在首位的重点任务，要提高养老、托育、医疗等民生类投资比重。房地 产方面表示，从供需两端发力稳市场，积极推动房地产企业转型发展，加快构建房地产发展新模式。 2、社保基金会表态：充分发挥长期资金、耐心资本作用 类型：宏观 情绪影响：正面 社保基金会党组召开会议传达学习中央经济工作会议精神。会议强调，充分发挥长期资金、耐心资本作 用，在守住安全底线的基础上，积极服务国家发展需要，更好支持科技创新和产业创新深度融合。系统 谋划社保基金事业"十五五"规划，推动社保基金事业高质量发展。 3、美国就业市场疲弱！交易员坚持押注：美联储在2026年会降息两次 类型：宏观 情绪影响：正面 投资日历 人工智能产业创新发展大会 投资锦囊 投资锦囊：获得巨额财富需要极大的胆识和谨慎的态度，当你一旦拥有大量财富，则需要有十倍的智慧 来留住它。 美国11月新增非农就业6.4万人，失业率意外升至4.6%为四年来新高，10月 ...

展望2026年，中国银河证券认为：重要会议将扩大内需放在重点工作首位，并且提出"制定实施城乡居民增收计划"、"扩大优质商品和服务供给"，看好人均 收入改善与内需复苏对食品饮料整体带来的贝塔修复，同时新消费（更加优质的商品与服务）有望贡献阿尔法。 上周末，茅台最新控量消息传开后，茅台批价开始回升，连续两日累计上涨近100元。截至12月14日，25年飞天茅台批价已从1495元，回升至接近1600元。 12月12日，贵州茅台股价已经在1400元/股附近企稳反弹。 具体到白酒行业，若动销与批价跌幅收窄，则逐渐步入筑底阶段，参考上一轮白酒调整周期的筑底阶段，在低估值背景下，流动性改善有望推动估值小幅修 复。 据悉，茅台各省区经销商联谊会近日召开会议，讨论明年经销渠道战略：2026年或将聚焦茅台1935、飞天茅台、精品茅台三大核心单品；茅台生肖酒、公斤 茅台等非标茅台产品或将减量；对于未完成的2025年计划外的茅台配额停止投放，以期稳定市场。 中国银河证券最新发表食品饮料行业分析认为：12月以来，食品饮料指数有所回调，主要原因为月度动销数据环比略有放缓，系中秋错期导致节奏略有波 动。板块内部来看，11月调整较多的啤酒、调 ...

格隆汇12月14日丨招商证券研报指出，展望2026年作为中国"十五五"规划开局之年与美国中期选举年， 将形成关键的政策共振，推动PPI上行，A股从牛市II阶段向以盈利改善为驱动力的"牛市III阶段"过渡。 在过往两年赚钱效应不错和中高回报率资产荒的背景下，A股资金供需有望延续较大规模净流入，为实 现慢牛带来流动性支持。投资策略应把握"风格切换觅周期，双轮驱动看长远"的核心思路，投资机会围 绕"内需复苏"与"科技自立"两大主轴展开。风格方面，大小盘均衡，顺周期风格有望持续占优，行业层 面，关注顺周期与产能出清、科技创新与优势制造、扩内需三条线索，重点关注有色金属、机械设备、 电力设备、电子、传媒、社会服务等行业。 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The market experienced a decline with major indices closing lower: Shanghai Composite Index down 0.70%, Shenzhen Component Index down 1.27%, and ChiNext Index down 1.41% [1] - Sectors showing gains included superconductors, controllable nuclear fusion, and non-metallic materials, while real estate services, real estate development, and commercial retail sectors faced declines [1] - Main capital inflows were observed in controllable nuclear fusion, superconductors, and wind power equipment industries [1] Group 2: Commercial Aerospace Investment - Guojin Securities noted that China is at a pivotal moment similar to SpaceX's network formation phase from 2018 to 2020, with a shift from custom satellite manufacturing to mass production [1] - The upcoming launch of the Wenchang Super Satellite Factory and SpaceX's planned IPO next year indicate a significant acceleration in global commercial aerospace investment and industrialization [1] - Key investment areas include commercial aerospace, low-altitude economy, and military trade, with advancements in reusable rocket technology expected to lower launch costs and accelerate satellite constellation deployment [1] Group 3: Consumer Market Trends - Multiple regions have introduced policies to boost consumption, with Jiangsu's "14th Five-Year Plan" focusing on expanding and upgrading consumer goods, particularly in automobiles and home appliances [2] - Haitong Securities highlighted a structural growth opportunity in the consumer sector driven by technological advancements and the emergence of new consumption trends, such as trendy toys and beauty products [2] - The outlook for 2026 suggests that ongoing consumption policies will stimulate supply and demand, leading to a steady recovery in domestic demand [2] Group 4: Innovation in Pharmaceuticals - Aijian Securities expressed optimism about the trend of Chinese innovative drugs entering international markets, noting that A/H innovative drug companies' valuations have returned to reasonable levels after adjustments [2] - The focus for 2026 will be on investment opportunities in key areas such as antibody-drug conjugates (ADC), bispecific antibodies, small nucleic acids, and weight-loss drugs [2] - CITIC Securities indicated that innovative drugs are expected to be a major upward trend in the cross-year market, supported by China's pharmaceutical industry's transition to "innovation realization + global layout" [3]

Group 1 - China's historic trade surplus reached $1 trillion in the first 11 months of 2025, marking the first time in history that a country achieved an annual trade surplus exceeding $1 trillion, translating to a daily net gain of nearly $33 million [1] - The composition of exports has shifted significantly, with electromechanical products now accounting for over 60% of total exports, indicating a transition from low-value goods to high-tech, high-value products [3] - Despite a 19% year-on-year decline in exports to the U.S. and a 28.6% drop in November, China's flexible global market strategy has allowed for a diversified export approach, mitigating risks associated with reliance on a single market [4] Group 2 - The high trade surplus is accompanied by a 0.6% decline in total imports, particularly in key categories like steel, wood, and automobiles, reflecting ongoing challenges in domestic demand and economic conditions [6][7] - The surplus is partly driven by domestic economic pressures, with consumers hesitant to spend due to stagnant housing prices and slow income growth, leading to increased reliance on exports [8] - The current economic environment is characterized by deflationary pressures, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) around 0% and the Producer Price Index (PPI) declining for 37 consecutive months, raising concerns about long-term economic stability [9][12] Group 3 - The trade surplus has led to rising tensions with trading partners, particularly the EU, where significant trade imbalances have prompted calls for tariffs and other trade restrictions [10] - The reliance on external demand for economic growth is highlighted by the fact that exports account for over 10% of GDP, while domestic consumption only makes up 38% of GDP, indicating a need for structural economic adjustments [10][15] - Future opportunities may lie in domestic demand recovery, with potential for growth in consumer spending and income levels, which are crucial for a healthier economic structure [15]

◎记者 徐蔚 12月10日，A股市场呈现指数分化的结构性走势。截至收盘，上证指数微跌0.23%，报3900.50点，险守 3900点整数关口；深证成指午后翻红，逆势上涨0.29%，报13316.42点；创业板指微跌0.02%，报 3209.00点。全市场成交额为1.79万亿元，较前一个交易日缩量1260亿元，超2400只个股上涨，板块轮动 特征显著。 中银证券研报表示：基本面承压叠加"十五五"规划建议表态偏向积极，未来地产优化政策落地的空间打 开。对未来地产行业的修复有一定信心。从地产标的来看，一方面，流动性安全、重仓高能级城市、产 品力突出的房企或更具备α属性；另一方面，在新消费时代下，提前布局新业态、新模式、新场景的商 业地产公司，有望率先走出重围。 此外，零售板块延续强势表现，永辉超市、中央商场、茂业商业等多只个股涨停。消息面上，全国零售 业创新发展大会12月9日至10日在北京举行。商务部副部长盛秋平表示，"十五五"时期，要把零售业作 为培育完整内需体系、做强国内大循环的关键着力点，推动行业转向品质驱动、服务驱动，实现高质量 发展。 数据显示，"十四五"以来，零售业对促进消费和投资的贡献巨大。2024年 ...