彭博社上周援引匿名知情人士消息称，在特朗普及其顾问和盟友眼中，哈西特是美国联邦储备委员会下任主席头 号候选人。他被视为能将特朗普所主张降息政策带入美联储的人。 现年63岁的哈西特拥有宾夕法尼亚大学经济学博士学位。1989年，他以哥伦比亚大学助理教授身份开启职业生 涯，随后在美联储工作至1997年。之后他加入一家保守派智库美国企业研究所，并逐渐成为共和党的经济专家之 一。他曾担任乔治·W·布什、约翰·麦凯恩和米特·罗姆尼的经济顾问，在特朗普第一任期内担任多项职务，包括经 济顾问委员会主任，新冠疫情期间还担任经济事务高级顾问。 哈西特长期主张减税、宽松货币政策，并公开支持更快、更多的降息，还曾批评美联储在疫情后让通胀失控，认 为当前利率过高、制约经济增长。 面对提名传闻，哈西特在美国哥伦比亚广播公司（CBS）《面对全国》（Face the Nation）节目中采取"既不否认也 不确认"的态度，将彭博社的报道称作"谣言"，同时又表示"能跻身优秀候选人之列深感荣幸"，如果受邀担任美联 储主席，会很乐意接受。 他提及市场对"特朗普即将提名主席人选"的积极反应，称"这一消息泄露时，看看市场的反应，那是非常非常积极 的。国 ...

Group 1: Market Predictions - Morgan Stanley predicts the S&P 500 index could reach a base target of 7500 points by the end of 2026, with potential to exceed 8000 points under further Federal Reserve easing conditions, driven by an AI supercycle and a resilient U.S. economy [1] - The Nifty 50 index in India is expected to rise to 30,000 points by the end of 2026, approximately a 15% increase from current levels, supported by tax cuts and interest rate reductions [5] Group 2: Economic Drivers - Recent tax cuts and anticipated interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of India are expected to boost domestic demand, with a 25 basis point rate cut likely in December [7] - The Indian stock market's valuation has fallen below long-term averages after a period of underperformance, providing a supportive backdrop for recovery [7] Group 3: Trade Relations - The likelihood of a U.S.-India trade agreement is high, which could lead to a short-term revaluation of the stock market, particularly benefiting sectors like IT and pharmaceuticals [8][9] - The potential removal of a 25% punitive tariff on imports from India could enhance investor confidence and attract foreign capital inflows [8] Group 4: Sector Preferences - Morgan Stanley maintains an "overweight" rating on sectors such as materials, financials, consumer goods, healthcare, real estate, defense, and power, while holding a "underweight" stance on IT and pharmaceuticals [10] - Industries benefiting from domestic consumption growth and infrastructure development are expected to perform better, with financials poised to gain from the interest rate cycle and increased corporate debt demand [10]

秋季预算正式公布之前，OBR意外提前发布了相关文件，该部门已对此事展开调查，并对"技术错误"道 歉。受该消息影响，英国基准10年期国债收益率上涨4个基点，达到4.535%。 当地时间11月26日，英国财政大臣雷切尔·里夫斯（Rachel Reeves）公布了其在任上的第二份财政预算 案，其中一项重要措施就是将个人所得税起征点冻结期延长三年。 此前，起征点通常随着消费者物价指数每年提升。2021年，保守党政府冻结了起征点，而随着工资持续 上涨，越来越多的人被纳入更高的税率区间，并缴纳更多个人所得税。英国预算责任办公室（OBR） 称，此举将为政府带来80亿英镑的收入。 一年前，里夫斯在其秋季预算案中提出了通过加税筹集400亿英镑的计划，引发工党支持率大幅下滑。 彼时，里夫斯曾承诺不再加税。如今，其所在的工党政府似乎已经放弃了这一承诺。 放弃直接提高所得税 在公布预算前的讲话中，里夫斯称，公众对"变革步伐缓慢感到沮丧"，将"采取公平且必要的措施"解决 生活成本危机。同时，她承诺不会推行紧缩政策，不会放任公共开支失控，也不会进行更多鲁莽的借 贷。 此前，政治新闻网英国版援引知情人士消息称，里夫斯正在酝酿一项折中的方案 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley predicts that the Indian benchmark Nifty 50 index is expected to rise to 30,000 points by the end of 2026, an increase of approximately 15% from current levels, driven by tax cuts and interest rate reductions [1] Market Performance - The Indian stock market experienced its strongest rebound in five months, with the Nifty 50 index surging 1.24% to 26,205.3 points, marking the highest closing level in 14 months [1] - The BSE Sensex index also rose 1.21% to 86,609.51 points, ending a three-day decline, with both indices recording their best single-day performance in five months [2] Economic Drivers - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that the Reserve Bank of India is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, alongside recent tax cuts that have begun to boost consumption, corporate debt growth, and automobile sales, collectively driving domestic demand [3][4] - The report highlights that while the current valuation of the Indian stock market is at a premium compared to other emerging markets, it has fallen below long-term averages after 14 months of underperformance [4] Trade Relations - Analysts believe that the likelihood of a US-India trade agreement is high, which could lead to a short-term revaluation of the stock market. Increased oil imports from the US and reduced purchases from Russia may eliminate the possibility of punitive tariffs from the US [5] - The potential removal of the additional 25% tariff is expected to boost investor confidence, attract foreign capital, support the rupee, and benefit the IT and pharmaceutical sectors [5] Sector Preferences - Morgan Stanley maintains an "overweight" rating on sectors such as materials, financials, consumer goods, hospitals, real estate, defense, and power, while holding a "underweight" stance on IT and pharmaceutical sectors [7] - The analysis suggests that industries benefiting from domestic consumption growth and infrastructure development will perform better, with the financial sector poised to gain from the interest rate cycle and increased corporate debt demand [7]

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup's stock strategists have raised the S&P 500 index target, citing the recent "Big and Beautiful" bill's tax cuts as a counterbalance to the negative impact of tariffs on U.S. corporate earnings [1] Group 1: Market Predictions - Citigroup's strategy team increased the S&P 500 year-end target from 6,300 to 6,600 points, indicating a potential 3% rise from last week's historical closing high, with a mid-2026 target of 6,900 points [1] - Morgan Stanley's chief equity strategist has also turned more optimistic, raising the S&P 500 target to 7,200 points for mid-2026 [5] - Oppenheimer's chief strategist has set the highest S&P 500 target among tracked strategists at 7,100 points for year-end [8] Group 2: Earnings Performance - Over 81% of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings above expectations, marking the highest rate in the past seven quarters [4] - Citigroup has revised its earnings per share (EPS) forecasts upward, projecting 2025 EPS to rise from $261 to $272 and 2026 EPS from $295 to $308 [4] Group 3: Technology Sector Influence - The "Magnificent Seven" tech giants, which include Apple, Microsoft, Google, Tesla, Nvidia, Amazon, and Meta Platforms, account for about 35% of the S&P 500 and are key drivers of the index's performance [2] - These tech giants have shown strong revenue growth driven by AI, solid fundamentals, and robust free cash flow, attracting significant global investment [2] - Despite their strong performance, six of the seven giants have expected price-to-earnings ratios significantly above 25x, raising caution among Wall Street analysts [2] Group 4: Investor Sentiment - A record 91% of surveyed institutional investors believe U.S. stocks are overvalued, the highest level since 2001 [8] - Investors are betting on tax cuts and anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts to boost the market, primarily through large-cap tech stocks [9] - The concentration of returns in the S&P 500 has reached extreme levels, with just five large tech stocks contributing 68% of the index's gains this year [9]

Core Viewpoint - Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba emphasizes that sales tax is a revenue source for social welfare programs such as pensions [1] Group 1 - There is a need to establish a framework for publicly discussing tax issues [1] - The pros and cons of tax reduction were not discussed during the election period [1]

Market Overview - Global stock markets experienced a broad recovery, with domestic equities outperforming overseas markets, particularly in the Hong Kong and ChiNext indices, as the Shanghai Composite Index stabilized above 3500 points [1][16] - The market sentiment improved due to easing tensions between China and the U.S., leading to positive expectations for negotiations and a rise in incremental capital inflows driven by enhanced profitability from mid-year earnings reports [1][16] - The overall pre-announcement profit rate for companies reporting mid-year results reached 44%, indicating structural improvements in earnings, particularly in the TMT, utilities, and transportation sectors [1][16] Economic Data Insights - In June, new social financing increased by 4.2 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.9 trillion yuan, with a balance growth rate of 8.9% [5] - The GDP growth rate for Q2 was 5.2%, slightly below the previous quarter's 5.4%, while industrial output in June rose by 6.8%, exceeding expectations [7][8] - Retail sales in June totaled 42.287 billion yuan, growing by 4.8% year-on-year, indicating a slight decline in domestic demand compared to previous months [9][10] Sector Performance and Strategy - The technology sector is expected to benefit from improved market sentiment and structural reforms, with the "new quality productivity" becoming a long-term focus, particularly in the context of AI advancements [2][17] - Financial sectors are likely to attract new capital due to increased long-term assessments by insurance companies, while consumer leaders are positioned for recovery amid low valuations and supportive domestic policies [2][17] - The Hong Kong market is anticipated to perform better than A-shares in the second half of the year, driven by strong earnings from technology leaders and high dividend yields attracting institutional investments [18] International Market Dynamics - U.S. stock markets showed resilience with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching new highs, supported by strong earnings in the financial and technology sectors, despite some volatility due to speculation around Federal Reserve policies [19] - The U.S. inflation data indicated a moderate rise, with the core CPI at 2.9%, suggesting that tariff impacts on inflation have yet to be fully realized [11][12] - The bond market remains stable, with short-term yields outperforming long-term ones, as the market anticipates a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [21]

Core Viewpoint - The ruling coalition in Japan is likely to lose its majority in the upper house elections, which could further weaken Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's leadership and disrupt financial markets [3][5]. Political Impact - Exit polls indicate that the ruling coalition may secure only 32 to 51 seats out of 125 contested, falling short of the 50 seats needed to maintain a majority in the 248-seat upper house [5]. - Ishiba has stated he will continue as Prime Minister, believing the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) can still be the largest party in both houses [5]. - If the ruling coalition loses control of the upper house, it would mark the first time since the LDP's establishment in the 1950s that the government is in a minority in both houses [5][7]. Financial Market Implications - The election results could complicate Ishiba's policy agenda and U.S. trade negotiations, potentially leading to his resignation [7]. - Investor uncertainty may increase due to the ruling party's loss of majority, raising concerns about the ability of lawmakers to control fiscal spending, which has contributed to rising bond yields [8]. - The upcoming market reactions will be observed on the foreign exchange market, with the yen trading starting early on Monday [9]. Public Sentiment and Policy Challenges - Public dissatisfaction with rising prices has shifted votes towards opposition parties advocating for tax cuts and increased social welfare spending [9]. - The LDP's stance against lowering consumption tax contrasts with public demand, which may further weaken its position [9]. - The need for a trade agreement with the U.S. by August 1 adds pressure, as failure to do so could lead to increased tariffs on Japanese exports, negatively impacting GDP [10].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The current market environment shows a significant decline across all asset classes, including both risk assets and safe-haven assets like gold, which recently dropped below $3,200 per ounce, indicating a state of confusion among market participants [1][8]. Key Points and Arguments - The U.S. Treasury market is under substantial downward pressure, with current price levels comparable to those seen on April 2, when tariffs were first introduced. This situation suggests that the warning signals for the U.S. economy remain active, necessitating further efforts to support the market through both messaging and domestic policy [2][4]. - Recent developments in U.S. trade relations, particularly with Japan and South Korea, are progressing, although specific details have not been disclosed by the U.S. or China. The speed of these negotiations appears to be relatively fast, as reported by South Korean media [3]. - The U.S. internal policy regarding tax cuts has reached the House of Representatives. If passed, this could provide some stimulus to the macro economy, which is crucial for economic recovery [3]. - Domestic economic indicators in China have shown disappointing results, particularly in April, where new credit issuance was only around 2,800 million, falling short of expectations. This indicates a lack of robust demand for credit, as much of the financing was attributed to bill financing rather than genuine credit demand [5][6]. - The data reflects a cautious approach from both consumers and businesses regarding loans, with a notable decrease in household loans for home purchases and a lack of substantial investment from enterprises [6][7]. - The recent easing of tariff pressures has created a complex situation for the domestic market, leading to uncertainty about future expectations. This environment may result in a period of volatility, with slight upward movements but no significant breakthroughs anticipated [7][8]. - Market sentiment has shown slight recovery, with trading volumes in Shanghai and Shenzhen dropping to 1.15 trillion, indicating a period of struggle and indecision in the market [8]. - The technical pattern observed in gold suggests a bearish outlook, with the recent price action forming a head-and-shoulders pattern, indicating weak buying support and leading to hesitance among short-term investors [9]. Other Important Insights - The overall market sentiment is characterized by a desire for stability and gradual recovery, with the expectation that any significant upward movement will require stronger catalysts [8]. - The current state of the market is described as a "struggle period," where maintaining stability is seen as a positive outcome amidst the prevailing uncertainties [8][10].

Core Viewpoint - The "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill passed by the U.S. House of Representatives may not yield the optimistic outcomes that Republicans envision, particularly regarding its impact on social safety nets and the economy [1][5]. Summary by Sections Tax and Spending Changes - The bill extends tax cuts for corporations and individuals initiated during Trump's first term in 2017, including tax exemptions for certain tip and overtime income, while also lowering corporate taxes [2]. - It represents a significant shift in U.S. spending priorities, with major cuts to social security programs like Medicaid and SNAP, and increased funding for tax cuts, defense, and immigration enforcement [2]. Impact on Social Safety Nets - The bill imposes stricter eligibility requirements for Medicaid, requiring individuals aged 19-64 to work at least 80 hours per month to qualify for insurance, which could severely limit access for many low-income individuals [3]. - The reduction in Medicaid funding and support for low-income families may lead to a diminished safety net, adversely affecting those who rely on these programs for basic healthcare and food assistance [3][4]. Economic Implications - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the bill will increase the national debt by $3.3 trillion over the next decade, exacerbating the federal government's financial situation [5]. - There are concerns that tax cuts may not lead to immediate investment growth, as manufacturing jobs continue to decline and hiring in retail and services remains sluggish [5]. Societal Consequences - The reduction in social safety net spending could potentially lead to increased crime rates and a decline in birth rates, with the U.S. experiencing its lowest birth rate since 1979 [6]. - The bill reflects a traditional Republican economic policy approach, but its long-term effects on the economy and society may be profound and divisive [6].