Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the passage of a significant tax reform bill by the U.S. Congress, which is expected to provide funding for President Trump's domestic agenda while potentially resulting in millions of Americans losing health insurance [3][4]. Legislative Outcome - The bill passed in the House of Representatives with a narrow margin of 218 to 214 votes, marking a significant victory for President Trump [4][6]. - The legislation aims to fund immigration policies, make the 2017 tax cuts permanent, and fulfill new tax incentives promised during Trump's 2024 campaign [4][6]. Financial Implications - According to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the bill will increase the U.S. debt by $3.4 trillion, adding to the existing $36.2 trillion debt [5]. - The bill is projected to reduce tax revenue by $4.5 trillion over the next decade while cutting $1.1 trillion in spending, primarily affecting Medicaid, which covers 71 million low-income Americans [12]. - The changes in Medicaid are expected to result in nearly 12 million people losing their insurance [12]. Economic Impact - The bill is designed to lower taxes for all income levels and stimulate economic growth, with Republican leaders claiming it will benefit everyone [9]. - However, analysis indicates that the wealthiest Americans will benefit the most, while low-income individuals may see a decrease in actual income due to cuts in safety net programs exceeding tax benefits [14]. Debt and Credit Rating Concerns - The legislation raises the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, temporarily avoiding default risks, but concerns remain about the long-term economic stimulus effects and rising borrowing costs [16]. - Moody's has already downgraded the U.S. credit rating due to debt issues, and some foreign investors are expressing concerns about the attractiveness of U.S. Treasury bonds following this bill [15]. Political Dynamics - The bill is expected to become a significant topic in the 2026 midterm elections, with Democrats aiming to regain control of at least one chamber of Congress [19]. - Republican leaders argue that the tax cuts will boost the economy before the elections, while many Americans are worried about the bill's costs and its impact on low-income populations [19].

Group 1: Impact on Healthcare Sector - The "Big and Beautiful" bill is expected to cut approximately $900 billion in Medicaid spending over the coming years, reversing many advancements made during the Biden and Obama administrations in healthcare [4] - The bill introduces stricter requirements for Medicaid beneficiaries, potentially leading to millions losing their healthcare coverage [5] - Companies heavily exposed to Medicaid, such as Elevance Health, Centene, and Molina Healthcare, are likely to see a direct impact on their revenues due to a decrease in Medicaid enrollment [5][6] Group 2: Effects on Renewable Energy Industry - The bill cancels several clean energy incentives from the Biden administration, imposing restrictions on solar and wind energy while encouraging fossil fuel production [7] - Changes in tax measures are expected to increase the burden on the renewable energy sector by approximately $4 billion to $7 billion [8] - The bill threatens around $450 billion in infrastructure investments in the renewable sector, potentially leading to the loss of about 300 gigawatts of solar and wind projects over the next decade [8] Group 3: Benefits to Corporations and High-Income Individuals - The bill reinstates tax policies that allow businesses to fully deduct equipment costs in the year of purchase, benefiting organizations like the U.S. Chamber of Commerce [11] - High-income households are projected to see a net income increase of nearly $13,000 after taxes and transfers, while middle-income families will see a smaller increase of $1,430 [12] - The bill provides additional tax incentives for semiconductor manufacturers building facilities in the U.S., aiming to stimulate investment in the manufacturing sector [11]

Group 1: Tax Reform Overview - The tax reform primarily extends existing tax cuts from the 2017 tax reform, with a limited incremental scale of approximately $4.5 trillion over the next ten years, while new tax relief measures amount to only $0.7 trillion[3] - The tax reform focuses on individual tax cuts, with an estimated reduction in tax revenue of about $4.2 trillion for individual taxes compared to $1.1 trillion for corporate taxes over the same period[4] - The U.S. government deficit is projected to increase by approximately $4 trillion over the next decade due to the tax reform, despite potential increases in tariff revenues[5] Group 2: Economic Impact - The tax reform is expected to partially offset the economic pressure from tariffs, potentially alleviating recession expectations in the U.S. economy[2] - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the tax reform could increase U.S. GDP growth by an average of 0.5 percentage points from 2025 to 2034, while tariffs are projected to decrease GDP growth by 0.6 to 0.8 percentage points[14] - The distributional effects of the tax reform indicate that the bottom 10% of low-income households may see a decrease in disposable income by about 2% by 2027, while the top 10% may benefit from an increase[15]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating for the dollar is "oscillating" [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US non - farm payrolls in June exceeded expectations, dispelling the expectation of an interest rate cut in July. The employment market remained resilient, but its structure deteriorated. The data supported the Fed to continue to observe cautiously. Market expectations of an interest rate cut cooled further after the data release [1][2][3] - Strong employment data alleviated market concerns about economic downturn and supported market sentiment in the short term. However, the market underestimated the deterioration of the employment market structure, and the subsequent weakening of the employment market might cause disturbances [4][40] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. US June Non - farm Payrolls Situation - The US added 147,000 non - farm jobs in June, exceeding the market expectation of 110,000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3%. The hourly wage growth rate was 0.2% month - on - month and 3.7% year - on - year, slightly lower than expected and the previous value [2][9] - In terms of industries, new jobs mainly came from education and healthcare (51,000), leisure and hospitality (20,000), and government departments (73,000). Layoffs increased in some sectors such as professional and business services (7,000), wholesale (6,600), and other services (5,000) [2][18] 2. Investment Advice - The overall strong employment data alleviated market concerns about economic downturn and supported market sentiment in the short term. The market was trading around tariff negotiations and tax cut bills. The implementation of the tax cut bill continued to support market risk appetite. The dollar and US Treasury yields stopped falling and rebounded, US stocks were oscillating strongly, and gold still faced a correction risk [4][40]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market sentiment remains high, with the ChiNext Index strongly rebounding due to the US - Vietnam trade agreement. The US labor market shows resilience, affecting the Fed's interest - rate decision and the performance of various financial and commodity markets [2][22]. - Different commodities have different supply - demand situations and price trends. For example, some metals like lead may see an upward shift in the price oscillation center, while some agricultural products like corn have a strong spot market due to decreasing visible inventory [6][7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US 6 - month employment report exceeded expectations, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1%. The market dispelled the expectation of a July interest - rate cut, and gold is under short - term pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of decline [15]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The US has revoked restrictions on China's EDA. The ChiNext Index rebounded strongly due to the US - Vietnam trade agreement. It is recommended to evenly allocate various stock indices to cope with sector rotation [17][18]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The latest non - farm data in June exceeded expectations, with the unemployment rate decreasing and new employment exceeding expectations. The US dollar index rebounded significantly. It is expected to continue to rebound in the short term [22]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - US economic data shows resilience, but there are signs of structural deterioration. The US stock market is oscillating strongly, but attention should be paid to the risks of tariff negotiations and weakening economic data. It is necessary to be vigilant about the risk of a pullback [27]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 572 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation. The Treasury bond futures are expected to be in an oscillating trend, with a higher probability of strengthening in the future. It is recommended to hold long positions and consider buying on dips [28]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal is stabilizing. With the resumption of production in Inner Mongolia, supply has increased slightly. High - temperature weather supports coal prices, making it difficult for them to decline during the peak season [30]. 3.2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - Iron ore prices have rebounded, with improved spot trading. Although the molten iron output decreased this period, it is expected to remain stable in July, and port inventory will slightly accumulate. The overall trend is difficult to reverse, but it is expected to remain strong in the short term [33]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The USDA weekly export sales report met expectations. There are rumors about a China - US agreement, but China's purchases of US soybeans remain stagnant. The domestic import cost of soybeans has increased, and the futures price is expected to oscillate within a range [35]. 3.2.4 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The inventory of five major steel products is basically flat compared with last week. The demand decline due to high - temperature weather is not obvious. Although the current expectation and fundamentals are strong, the external demand risk remains. It is recommended to use a hedging strategy on rallies for the spot [40]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - The main hog futures contract LH2509 has risen rapidly. The fundamental sentiment is strong, driving the spot price to stabilize and rebound. However, the supply in July - August is still relatively large, and the long - short game intensifies. It is recommended to wait for the signal of pressure from hog sales and then short on rallies [43]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The demand for starch sugar fails to meet expectations. The consumption of corn decreases, while that of corn starch increases slightly. The starch is expected to continue to reduce production to reduce inventory. The factors affecting the CS - C spread are complex, and the future is uncertain [45]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The visible inventory of corn continues to decline, and the first batch of imported corn auctions had high premiums, supporting the strong spot market. It is recommended to wait and see for old - crop contracts and consider shorting new - crop contracts 11 and 01 on rallies [47]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The global cotton supply is stable, while the demand is uncertain. The trade policy is a major variable. The domestic cotton market is supported by a tight supply of old - crop commercial inventory but is dragged down by the weak downstream industry. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [54]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The social inventory of lead ingots has increased. The short - term supply - demand is weak, but there is an expectation of strong supply - demand in the long term. The price oscillation center may shift upward. It is recommended to buy on dips [55]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The spread between Shanghai and Guangdong has widened, and the domestic inventory has increased. The macro - situation affects the price, and fundamentally, there is an expectation of oversupply in the medium term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and consider positive - spread arbitrage opportunities [57]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Policy rumors drive the polysilicon futures price up, but the fundamentals are not optimistic. The price still has downward pressure. It is recommended to stop profiting from the PS2508 - 2509 positive spread due to high policy - related risks [61]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The social inventory of industrial silicon has increased. The supply side has new changes, and the demand side may be affected by polysilicon production cuts. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [63]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Copper prices are affected by factors such as AI, renewable energy, and tariffs. The US non - farm data affects the dollar index and copper prices. The domestic inventory shows a weak accumulation trend. It is recommended to maintain a long - biased strategy for the short - term high - level oscillation [66]. 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The cooperation between Fulin Seiko and Chuanfa Longmang is expected to enhance the former's layout in the lithium - battery material industry. The demand in July is better than expected, driving the price up. It is recommended to avoid short - selling in the short term and consider positive - spread arbitrage opportunities [70]. 3.2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The inventory of LME and SHFE has decreased. The raw - material cost support is weakening, and the supply of nickel is expected to be in surplus. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [73]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemical Industry (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The weekly production of domestic LPG has decreased, and the inventory has also decreased. The fundamentals are weak, and there is no upward price drive [75]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemical Industry (Natural Gas) - The US natural gas inventory has increased. The summer temperature will support the price, and the demand for gas - electricity is expected to decline slightly. The NYMEX is expected to oscillate in the short term [78]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemical Industry (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong has increased slightly, with improved demand and increased supply. The futures price has rebounded, but the rebound height is expected to be limited [80]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemical Industry (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp is stable with a slight decline. The futures price is rising slightly. The market is expected to oscillate due to the weak fundamentals [83]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemical Industry (PVC) - The price of PVC powder is narrowly adjusted. The futures price is oscillating. The inventory is turning from decreasing to increasing, and the subsequent market rise may be limited [85]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemical Industry (Styrene) - The weekly production of styrene has decreased slightly. The supply - demand of pure benzene and styrene has different trends. The future supply - demand of styrene is expected to weaken. It is recommended to pay attention to the release rhythm of Yulong's new capacity [86]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemical Industry (Bottle Chips) - The export quotation of bottle - chip factories has been mostly reduced. The factories plan to cut production in July. If the production cuts are implemented, the inventory pressure will be relieved. It is recommended to pay attention to opportunities to expand the processing margin on dips [88]. 3.2.23 Energy and Chemical Industry (Carbon Emissions) - The EU Commission proposes a flexible 2040 climate target, but there are many internal objections. The EU carbon price is expected to oscillate in the short term [90]. 3.2.24 Energy and Chemical Industry (Soda Ash) - The inventory of domestic soda - ash manufacturers has increased. The market is in a weak adjustment, with high supply and weak demand. It is recommended to take a short - selling strategy on rallies in the medium term [92]. 3.2.25 Energy and Chemical Industry (Float Glass) - The inventory of float - glass manufacturers has decreased slightly. The futures price has risen slightly, and the supply - demand pattern has not changed much. It is recommended to consider a long - glass and short - soda - ash cross - commodity arbitrage strategy [93].

Core Points - The "Big and Beautiful" tax bill is facing significant resistance in the House of Representatives, with President Trump urging its passage by July 4 [1][3] - The bill, after being amended and passed in the Senate, must return to the House for a final vote, where it faces opposition from some Republican members [3][4] - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the bill will increase national debt by $4.1 trillion over the next decade, which is $1.1 trillion more than the previous House version [3][4] Group 1: Legislative Process - The Senate passed the bill with a tie-breaking vote from Vice President Pence, but it must now be re-voted in the House due to significant amendments [3] - The House Freedom Caucus has expressed dissatisfaction with the Senate version, citing excessive cuts to Medicaid and high tax reductions [4] - The White House is actively lobbying to secure votes, with Trump and other officials meeting with dissenting members [5][6] Group 2: Economic Impact - The CBO's model predicts that the Senate bill will result in a $3.4 trillion deficit, increasing to $4.1 trillion when including interest costs [7] - The White House argues that the bill will lead to stronger economic growth, countering CBO's predictions of long-term negative impacts [7] - Research indicates that the bill could lead to higher interest rates and a significant increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio, potentially reaching 183% by 2054 [8]

美国总统特朗普：众议员杰米·拉斯金，一个三流的民主党政客，不知道我们的减税法案有什么，即使 他知道，他也不会理解。这个笨蛋多年来一直输给我，我喜欢看他那张丑陋的脸，因为他被迫不断向特 朗普认输——今晚应该是另一个这样的夜晚。 ...

Core Points - The U.S. Senate Republicans are pushing for a large tax and spending bill proposed by President Trump, despite internal disagreements over the potential $3.3 trillion increase in national debt [1][4] - The Senate Majority Leader expressed hope that they are in the final stages of the voting process, but no final vote on the bill was seen hours later [1][2] - The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimated that the Senate version of the bill would increase the national debt by $3.3 trillion, which is $800 billion more than the House version [1][4] Group 1: Political Dynamics - Democrats are using the significant debt increase figure to sway fiscal conservatives away from the Republican camp, criticizing the bill for depriving healthcare and benefiting billionaires [2][3] - The Senate passed a procedural vote to begin debate on the comprehensive 940-page bill, which includes tax cuts, immigration, border, and military spending [2][4] - Republican amendments to limit Medicaid cuts were rejected, and the bill includes sensitive political issues such as restrictions on Medicaid funding for gender reassignment procedures [3][4] Group 2: Debt Ceiling Concerns - The Republican plan includes a $5 trillion increase in the debt ceiling, which is $1 trillion more than the House version, raising concerns about potential catastrophic debt default if not passed [4] - The Congressional Budget Office analysis indicates that 11.8 million people could lose healthcare coverage under the Senate bill, exceeding the House's estimates [4] - The bill aims to extend key achievements from Trump's first term, including the 2017 tax cuts, while also increasing military and border security spending [4][5]

Group 1 - The U.S. President Trump signed an executive order to end sanctions against Syria, allowing for the relaxation of export controls on certain goods and aid to Syria [2] - Iran's Foreign Ministry is documenting Israel's aggression and crimes, maintaining communication with international organizations [3] - 17 provinces in China reported their fiscal data for the first five months of 2025, with Jilin province showing the highest growth rate [4] Group 2 - China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that it has conditionally restored imports of seafood from certain regions of Japan, while maintaining its opposition to the discharge of nuclear-contaminated water [6] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce expressed strong dissatisfaction and opposition to Canada's closure of Hikvision's operations in Canada, citing national security concerns [7] - China's manufacturing PMI rose to 49.7% in June, indicating a continuous improvement in manufacturing activity [8] Group 3 - The Ministry of Culture and Tourism in China plans to issue 570 million yuan in consumer vouchers during the summer cultural and tourism consumption season [9][10] - The Yangtze River Delta railway is expected to send over 190 million passengers during the summer transport period, marking a historical high [11] - The Chinese government announced a tax credit policy for foreign investors using distributed profits for direct investment in China from 2025 to 2028 [12] Group 4 - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange issued a new batch of QDII quotas totaling 3.08 billion USD to support qualified domestic institutional investors in cross-border investment [13] - The number of legal entities and other organizations in China has surpassed 200 million, with over 66 million legal entities and more than 1.27 billion individual businesses [14] - Chengdu's land revenue in the first half of the year reached 44 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of over 100% [16] Group 5 - Baidu and Huawei announced significant open-source initiatives for their AI models, with Baidu releasing 10 models from its Wenxin series and Huawei open-sourcing its Pangu models [29] - The competition in the Chinese automotive industry is intensifying as BYD is reportedly surpassing Tesla in sales in several key global markets [36]

"大而美"法案闯关 特朗普的"大而美法案"本周可能会左右市场。 上周末，法案在国会参议院遭遇强力阻击。白宫方面表示，希望在7月4日独立日之前签署该法案。去年 11月，特朗普在总统选举中获胜后一度推高市场，其中一个原因是特朗普承诺削减公司税；较低的公司 税率预计将有利于降低企业的成本。 标普500指数创下反弹新高最快纪录。 在4月初触底后，美股三大股指在美国总统特朗普关税立场软化后开启了一轮强劲反弹，标普500指数和 纳指重新刷新历史新高，特朗普也在社交媒体上晒图庆祝。其中标普500指数在不到三个月时间内市值 增长超10万亿美元，并刷新指数高位下跌15%以上重新突破新高的最短纪录。 历史数据显示，7月是美股表现最好的月份之一。接下去，投资者还需要关注哪些宏观事件的影响？ 回顾历史，特朗普在2017年的《减税和就业法案》中削减了公司税，其中许多减税措施将于2025年底到 期。摩根士丹利财富管理市场研究和战略团队主管司凯丽（Dan Skelly）表示，"在2017-2018年，公司 税率从35%下降到21%。这对整体公司收益的一阶导数影响相当大。这一次，我认为它的意义会降 低。"他认为，如果国会不通过新税收法案，那 ...