Group 1 - The iShares Silver Trust report indicates that as of August 15, the gold ETF holdings increased by 4.01 tons to a total of 965.37 tons [1] - Spot gold closed at $3,335.69 per ounce on August 15, with a daily increase of 0.91%, reaching a high of $3,348.74 and a low of $3,331.63 during the day [1] Group 2 - Current spot gold is trading around $3,344.16 per ounce, showing an increase of approximately 0.25%, after previously dropping to the lowest level since August 1 at $3,323.43 [3] - December futures for U.S. gold rose by 0.18% to $3,389.10, supported by a weak U.S. dollar index [3] - Geopolitical risks, including potential territorial exchanges in the Russia-Ukraine peace proposal and uncertainty from the U.S. canceling trade talks with India, are contributing to gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - For gold futures, the overall trend of Shanghai gold futures is in a sideways phase, possibly at the beginning. In the short - term, the focus on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and geopolitical risks will drive it to be volatile and strong. In the long - term, if the interest - rate cut in September is realized, the gold price may challenge a new high of $3500. For silver futures, the overall trend of Shanghai silver futures is in a steady upward trend, currently at the end of the trend. The long - term trend depends on the energy transition progress, actual interest - rate cut strength, and the repair momentum of the gold - silver ratio [7][33]. 3. Summary by Directory Gold Futures 3.1.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - The overall trend of Shanghai gold futures is sideways, possibly at the start. The Fed's over 90% probability of a September interest - rate cut, a two - week low in the US dollar index, and a decline in US bond yields suppress the cost of holding gold. Geopolitical risks are divided, with trade frictions supporting the safe - haven property of gold. The SPDR Gold ETF has continuously increased its positions (nearly 5 tons weekly), and institutional allocation demand has recovered. The short - term is driven by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and geopolitical risks, while the long - term depends on the strength of the interest - rate cut, inflation stickiness, and the central bank's gold - buying persistence. A "cautious interest - rate cut" signal from the Fed's August 22 meeting minutes may trigger a correction. The mid - line strategy is to wait and see [7]. 3.1.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week, the gold main contract 2510 was expected to be mainly volatile, and grid trading in the 735 - 838 range was recommended. This week, the same strategy is recommended [11][12]. 3.1.3 Relevant Data Situation - There are data charts showing the trends of Shanghai gold futures, COMEX gold futures, SPDR Gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yields, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference [19][21][23] Silver Futures 3.2.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - The overall trend of Shanghai silver futures is steadily rising, currently at the end of the trend. Last week, silver was affected by a combination of long and short factors. The core support comes from the Fed's over 70% probability of a September interest - rate cut and geopolitical uncertainties. The main suppression is due to the weak industrial fundamentals, inflation resilience, and limited monetary policy easing space. The long - term trend depends on the energy transition progress, actual interest - rate cut strength, and the repair momentum of the gold - silver ratio. The mid - line strategy is to wait and see [33]. 3.2.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week, the silver contract 2510 was expected to be mainly in high - level volatility, with a lower support range of 8500 - 8800 and an upper pressure range of 9200 - 9500. This week, the same expectation and range are recommended [36][37]. 3.2.3 Relevant Data Situation - There are data charts showing the trends of Shanghai silver futures, COMEX silver futures, SLV Silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference [44][46][48]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Methanol - The inland maintenance is expected to peak in early August. Currently, the production volume remains at a high level year - on - year. This week, the port has significantly accumulated inventory, the basis is stable, there are many imports in August, downstream demand is weak due to low profits, MTO profits are low, and the situation of low - profit and high - load operation is unsustainable. Pay attention to the subsequent start - up situation. For the 09 contract, there is significant inventory accumulation. The 01 contract has expectations of a seasonal peak season and Iranian plant shutdowns. After the near - end weakens significantly, consider building positions at low prices [1][2]. Polyolefins - On the supply side, PP maintenance is starting to decline, PE maintenance will increase in mid - to - late August, imports remain at a low level, and new production capacity is expected to be put into operation from August to September. On the demand side, the downstream start - up of PP/PE is at a low level, raw material inventories have decreased to a low level, and there is potential for restocking during the subsequent peak season. The overall valuation is moderately high, and the inventory of the upper and middle reaches is being depleted. The fundamental contradictions are not significant. The strategy is to take profit on the previous unilateral short positions at 7200 - 7300 near 7000 and continue to hold the LP01 position [7]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: Some PX maintenance units have restart expectations, and PX supply will increase marginally in August. Although there are new PTA units being put into operation, there are many unplanned PTA unit shutdowns in August due to low processing fees. The PX supply - demand situation is expected to weaken marginally in August, and with weak oil price support, PX will fluctuate weakly. However, the medium - term supply - demand pressure is not significant, and the downward space for PX is limited. The strategy is to pay attention to the support near 6500 - 6600 for PX11 and mainly expand the PX - SC spread at low levels [10]. - **PTA**: Due to continuously low processing spreads, the planned shutdowns of PTA units have increased in August, and the PTA supply - demand situation has improved compared to expectations. However, with the commissioning of the new Hailun Petrochemical PTA unit, the medium - term PTA supply - demand situation is expected to be weak, and the PTA basis will operate weakly. Overall, considering the weak supply - demand expectations and the trend of oil prices, PTA will fluctuate weakly. However, due to low PTA processing fees and limited PX supply - demand pressure, and with the expectation of the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, the downward space for PTA is limited. The strategy is to pay attention to the support near 4600 for TA01, conduct reverse arbitrage for TA1 - 5 at high prices, and mainly expand the PTA surface processing fee at low levels (around 250) [10]. - **MEG**: In terms of domestic supply, multiple coal - to - MEG units are restarting or increasing production in August, but the 1.9 - million - ton - per - year MEG unit of Shenghong Refining & Chemical is currently shut down due to an accident, and the restart time is undetermined, so the domestic supply recovery is postponed. In terms of overseas supply, the Ma Petroleum and Saudi Sharg3 units have shut down temporarily, and the restart time is unclear. The MEG import volume may be revised downwards. On the demand side, terminal orders are weak during the traditional off - season, but as the high - temperature period and the off - season are coming to an end, the polyester load will gradually increase. Overall, the short - term MEG supply - demand situation is expected to improve, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range. The strategy is that EGO9 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4350 - 4500 [10]. - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber supply and demand are both increasing. On the supply side, the previously shut - down short - fiber plants are gradually restarting. In terms of demand, with the approaching of the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, there are improvements in local autumn and winter orders at the terminal, and the downstream yarn - coating demand has increased slightly compared to last year, providing some support for prices. However, the short - term supply - demand driving force is limited, and the weak oil price trend may cause the absolute price of short - fiber to fluctuate weakly. The strategy is the same as that for TA in a single - side trade; the surface processing fee will fluctuate in the range of 800 - 1100, and the upward and downward driving forces are both limited [10]. - **Bottle - grade polyester**: August is still the peak season for soft - drink consumption, and large bottle - grade polyester plants such as Sanfangxiang, China Resources, Yisheng, and Wankai are maintaining production cuts. As the production - cut time extends, even though the demand is average, the production - cut effect is gradually emerging, as reflected in the slow depletion of current bottle - grade polyester inventory, which provides support for the processing fee. The absolute price still follows the cost side. The precondition for the processing fee to expand is an increase in demand. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the production cuts of bottle - grade polyester units will further increase and the downstream follow - up situation. The strategy is that the PR single - side trade is the same as that for PTA, the main - contract surface processing fee of PR is expected to fluctuate in the range of 350 - 500 yuan/ton, and consider going long on the processing fee at low prices in the short term [10]. Crude Oil - Oil prices are rebounding. The current main trading logic is the game between geopolitical risk uncertainties and weak demand expectations. Specifically, the meeting between US and Russian leaders may cause oil price fluctuations. If the summit fails, the threat of secondary sanctions from the US on Russian oil buyers such as China and India may lead to supply disruptions in Russia, triggering a short - term bullish risk premium and driving oil prices to rebound slightly. However, the loose supply - demand fundamentals suppress the upward space. The IEA expects the supply surplus pressure to become increasingly prominent from 2025 - 2026, and the production increase of OPEC+ and the growth of non - member supply will further increase the loose pressure. In the short term, the unexpected increase in EIA US crude oil inventories has also strengthened the bearish sentiment. Macroscopically, the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September provides some support for demand, but the impact is limited and lagging. Overall, the market remains in a stalemate before the summit results. As the weekend approaches, oil prices face two - way risks and the volatility will intensify. It is recommended to remain on the sidelines for single - side trades and consider widening the spreads between October - November/December. The support levels are [60, 61] for WTI, [63, 64] for Brent, and [470, 480] for SC. On the options side, opportunities for volatility contraction can be captured [14]. Chlor - alkali Industry - **Caustic soda**: The delivery volume of caustic soda to the main downstream has increased, and the non - aluminum downstream rigid demand has followed up. The overall demand performance has been good recently. However, some units in East China will resume operation next week. There will be fewer maintenance enterprises in the future than before, and the supply is expected to increase. In South China, it is the off - season for non - aluminum industries, but the supply is increasing. The exports of East China enterprises are mostly previous orders, and the non - aluminum market is also average. It is expected that the number of warehouse receipts in the main production areas will increase in August, which will also have a certain negative impact. It is expected that the rebound height will be limited. In the future, attention can be paid to the purchasing situation of alumina enterprises [76]. - **PVC**: On the supply side, new production capacity is being gradually put into operation, the domestic trade is weak, the spot trading is weak, and the number of warehouse receipts on the futures market is increasing. The inventory pressure continues to increase, and the demand is difficult to improve. In August, new domestic and foreign production capacity will continue to be released. Fujian Wanhua and Tianjin Bohua are expected to release production capacity in August, Gansu Yaowang plans to start production in August, and Qingdao Haiwan plans to start production in September. The release of new production capacity will put new pressure on the PVC supply side. On the downstream side, there is no expectation of improvement, the start - up rate of downstream product enterprises remains low, and the purchasing enthusiasm is weak. The industry is still in the off - season. Overall, the supply - demand pressure remains significant. The movement of coking coal will affect the PVC futures price from the cost side. It is recommended to remain on the sidelines for short - term trades [76]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - **Pure benzene**: In the third quarter, there are expectations of improvement in the pure benzene supply - demand situation compared to the previous quarter. With fewer port arrivals in August, port inventories are expected to decline, which will provide some short - term support for pure benzene prices. However, the overall supply of goods remains sufficient, and its own driving force is limited. It is expected that the short - term support for pure benzene will be relatively strong. However, with weak oil price support and weak medium - term supply - demand expectations, pure benzene will face some pressure. The strategy is that the BZ2603 single - side trade will follow the trends of oil prices and styrene [79]. - **Styrene**: In the short term, the overall styrene supply remains at a high level. However, as styrene profits are being compressed, some units have maintenance expectations; the overall load of the downstream 3S has increased. The short - term styrene supply - demand situation has improved marginally, and the port inventory continues to decline slightly, but the absolute level of port inventory is still high, and the fundamental driving force for styrene is limited. Coupled with the recent weak oil price trend, styrene may be dragged down in the short term. The strategy is to pay attention to the support near 7200 for EB09 and consider shorting on rebounds [79]. Urea - Recently, the futures market has been fluctuating weakly. The main trading logic is that the loose domestic supply - demand situation has dragged down the center of the futures price. Specifically, on the supply side, the production volume has increased, and the capacity utilization rate has improved. Although some enterprises are under maintenance, the overall supply is sufficient. On the demand side, agricultural demand is weak, industrial demand has limited growth, and in some regions, downstream production is restricted due to the military parade, resulting in temporary pressure on demand. The continuous inventory accumulation has further increased the market pressure. Although there is a certain amount of exports, the increase is limited, and the market's expectation for export fulfillment has cooled down, making it difficult to reverse the loose domestic supply - demand situation, which has led to the downward pressure on the futures price. In the future, pay attention to the resumption progress of maintenance enterprises and new maintenance plans, as well as the progress of the export side, the final confirmed volume of the Indian IPL tender, and China's supply proportion. In the short term, the futures market is likely to continue to operate weakly [86]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 14, the closing price of MA2601 was 2435, down 1.77% from the previous day; the closing price of MA2509 was 2340, down 1.47%. The MA91 spread was - 8.65%, and the Taicang basis remained stable at 10. The spot prices in Inner Mongolia's northern line, Henan Luoyang, and Taicang all declined to varying degrees [1]. - **Inventory**: As of Wednesday, methanol enterprise inventory was 29.5573 tons, up 0.64% from the previous value; port inventory was 102.2 tons, up 10.41%; social inventory was 131.7 tons, up 8.06% [1]. - **Start - up Rates**: As of Thursday, the domestic upstream start - up rate was 72.63%, down 0.74%; the overseas upstream start - up rate was 69.8%, up 1.96%. The downstream MTO unit start - up rate was 76.92%, up 0.68%; the formaldehyde start - up rate remained unchanged at 30.2%; the water - based paint start - up rate was 90.8%, up 1.09% [1]. Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 14, the closing prices of L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 all declined to varying degrees. The spreads between L2509 - 2601 and PP2509 - 2601 also changed. The basis of North China LDPE film and East China PP both increased slightly [7]. - **Inventory**: As of Wednesday, PE enterprise inventory was 44.5 tons, down 13.76% from the previous value; PP enterprise inventory was 58.8 tons, up 0.07%. The PP trader inventory was 18.0 tons, down 4.06% [7]. - **Start - up Rates**: As of Thursday, the PE device start - up rate was 77.8%, down 2.10%; the downstream weighted start - up rate was 37.9%, down 0.47%. The PP device start - up rate was 76.6%, down 1.1%; the PP powder start - up rate was 37.5%, up 4.1%; the downstream weighted start - up rate was 48.6%, down 0.3% [7]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 14, the prices of upstream products such as Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and CFR Japan naphtha all changed to varying degrees. The prices of downstream polyester products such as POY150/48, FDY150/96, and polyester bottle - grade chips also fluctuated. The PX - related prices and spreads, as well as the PTA - related prices and spreads, also showed different trends [10]. - **Inventory and Arrival Expectations**: As of August 11, the MEG port inventory was 55.3 tons, up 7.2% from August 4. The MEG arrival expectation on August 14 was 14.1 tons, up 2.2% from the previous day [10]. - **Start - up Rates**: The Asian PX start - up rate was 73.6%, up 0.2%; the Chinese PX start - up rate was 82.0%, up 0.9%. The PTA start - up rate was 76.2%, up 0.9%; the MEG comprehensive start - up rate was 68.4%, down 0.6%. The polyester comprehensive start - up rate was 88.8%, up 0.7% [10]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 15, Brent crude oil was at $66.84 per barrel, up 1.84% from the previous day; WTI was at $63.90 per barrel, down 0.09%. The spreads between different contracts and different crude oil varieties also changed significantly [14]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil all changed to varying degrees on August 15. The spreads between different refined oil contracts also showed different trends [14]. Chlor - alkali Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 14, the prices of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda (converted to 100%), East China calcium - carbide - based PVC, and other products all declined to varying degrees. The spreads between different contracts and the basis also changed [76]. - **Inventory**: As of August 7, the liquid caustic soda inventory in East China factories was 21.9 tons, up 2.0%; the PVC upstream factory inventory was 33.7 tons, down 2.4%; the total PVC social inventory was 48.1 tons, up 7.3% [76]. - **Start - up Rates**: As of August 8, the PVC total start - up rate was 77.8%, up 6.1%. The start - up rates of downstream products such as alumina, viscose staple fiber, and PVC pipes all changed to varying degrees [76]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 14, the prices of upstream products such as Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and CFR Japan naphtha all changed. The prices of pure benzene and styrene - related products also fluctuated. The spreads between different products and contracts also showed different trends [79]. - **Inventory**: As of August 11, the pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports was 14.60 tons, down 10.4%; the styrene inventory in Jiangsu ports was 14.88 tons, down 6.4% [79]. - **Start - up Rates**: As of August 8, the Asian pure benzene start - up rate was 76.096%, down 1.3%; the domestic pure benzene start - up rate was 78.8%, up 0.3%. The start - up rates of downstream products such as PS, EPS, and ABS also changed to varying degrees [79]. Urea - **Prices and Spreads

Report Summary 1. Core View - In the context of the domestic "anti-involution" theme, the mid - and downstream black and chemical sectors have relative returns, and processing profits still face the need for repair [3] - Refining profits are passively repaired, and the processing demand in the peak season of the fourth quarter recedes [33] 2. Summary by Related Catalogs Energy - related Commodity Prices - The report presents the unit heat - value price performance of energy - related commodities and the cumulative price changes of commodities in the post - energy - crisis era, including TTF natural gas futures, API2 Rotterdam Q6000 coal futures, ICE NEWC futures, and Brent crude oil futures [3][4] Crude Oil Spot and Futures Spreads - It shows the spot - futures spreads of various crude oils such as Forties, IK Fisker crude, CPC Blend CIF, etc., and the spreads between different crude oil futures contracts like Brent C1 - C7, dated BFOE - WTI Cushing, etc [6] OPEC+ Production - Displays OPEC+ production, production quotas, target production, and the production of Saudi Arabia and Russia. Also shows the weekly loading volume of crude oil from 9 OPEC countries [8] Crude Oil Exports - Presents the crude oil exports of Iran and Venezuela, including their exports to China [11] Geopolitical Risks - Displays the probability forecasts of geopolitical events such as the US - Iran nuclear agreement, Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire agreement in 2025 [12] US Oil Production - Covers the number of non - Gulf of Mexico oil rigs in the US, the monthly average price of WTI (with a 4 - month lag), the breakdown of new shale oil production in the US, and the dynamic adjustment of US crude oil production forecasts [15][16][17] Non - OPEC and Other Regions' Oil Supply - Shows the oil supply growth rate of non - OPEC, Russia, and shale oil regions, the crude oil and condensate production of 4 American countries, and the new conventional production capacity in 2025 in countries like Norway, the US, etc [19] Federal Reserve Policy and Global Manufacturing - Displays the pricing of the remaining number of Fed rate hikes in 2025 and the global manufacturing PMI of the US, Eurozone, Japan, China, India, etc [22] Global Oil Demand - Shows the downward adjustment of global oil demand growth rate by institutions in April 2025 and the forecast of global oil demand growth rate by product [24] US and Chinese Oil Product Demand - Presents the year - on - year growth rate of the 4 - week average of US refined oil product demand, the demand for gasoline and diesel in China, and China's refined oil product exports [28][31] Refining Profits and Capacity Utilization - Displays the comprehensive refining profits of refineries in Singapore, Northwest Europe, and the US Gulf, the refining margins of Chinese refineries, and the capacity utilization rates of Chinese and international refineries [34] Crude Oil and Oil Product Inventories - Covers the on - land commercial inventory, floating storage inventory, and total inventory of crude oil, as well as the global inventory of refined oil products, light distillates, diesel, kerosene, fuel oil, etc [36][38] OPEC+ Supply - Demand Balance - Shows the global demand for OPEC+ crude oil supply under the baseline scenario, the supply - demand gap, and the global oil inventory [40] Other Oil - related Data - Displays the monthly asphalt production of domestic refineries, the shipping destination structure of Venezuelan oil, the spot - futures spreads of Singapore fuel oil, the ship - refueling spreads, and the high - low sulfur spreads [43][52][53]

Report Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term equilibrium state with poor operability [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★★★, showing a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆, meaning a short - term equilibrium state with poor operability [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): ★★★, representing a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] Core Views - The oil market has a continuous inventory build - up pressure after the peak season, and different energy products have different supply - demand situations and price trends. Investment strategies vary according to the specific conditions of each product [2][3][4][5] Summary by Product Crude Oil - Since the third quarter, global oil inventories have increased by 1.1%, similar to the first and second quarters. The supply - demand surplus in the fourth quarter is expected to double. After the geopolitical risk concerns eased last week, the market focused on the supply - demand bearish expectations. A double - buy strategy for out - of - the - money options of SC2510 is recommended [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - In August, the Asian fuel oil market has sufficient arrivals and weak shipping demand. Singapore's fuel oil inventory remains high. The low - sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure due to the expected third - batch quota release and cost weakening. High - sulfur fuel oil is supported by sanctions on Russia and Iran [3] Asphalt - In August, the profit difference between coking and asphalt has increased steadily, and refineries' willingness to switch to producing residue may rise. Supply pressure is limited, demand is weak but has recovery expectations, and low inventory supports prices. The BU crack is considered strong recently [4] LPG - The overseas export market is loose, but the recovery of East Asian chemical procurement provides support. Import volume has increased in early August. The refinery gas price has room to decline. The market is in a low - level oscillation after initially fulfilling the bearish expectations [5]

Group 1: Polyester Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The report analyzes the price, cash - flow, and supply - demand situation of various products in the polyester industry. Different products have different trends and outlooks. For example, PX's supply is expected to increase marginally in August, and its supply - demand is expected to weaken; PTA's short - term supply - demand may improve, but it is expected to be weak in the medium - term; ethylene glycol's short - term supply - demand is expected to improve; short - fiber's supply and demand have a small increase, and its price follows raw materials; bottle - chip's inventory is slowly decreasing, and its processing fee has support [2]. Summary by Directory - **Product Prices and Cash - flows**: On August 8th, prices of some products like DTY150/48 decreased by 0.3%, while others like POY150/48 remained unchanged. Cash - flows of some products also changed, such as POY150/48's cash - flow decreased by 28.6% [2]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: PX supply increases in August, and with low terminal demand, its supply - demand weakens. PTA has new device production, but low processing fees lead to more unexpected device overhauls. Ethylene glycol has supply changes both at home and abroad, and demand is expected to increase as the off - season ends. Short - fiber's supply and demand slightly increase, and bottle - chip's inventory decreases due to production cuts [2]. Group 2: PVC and Caustic Soda Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The report presents the price, supply - demand, and inventory situation of PVC and caustic soda. Caustic soda's supply is expected to increase, but there may be support from supply reduction due to enterprise overhauls. PVC's supply pressure is large with new capacity release, and downstream demand has no obvious improvement [7][12]. Summary by Directory - **Price Changes**: On August 8th, the price of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda remained unchanged at 2500 yuan/ton, and the price of East China calcium - carbide - based PVC decreased by 0.4% to 4890 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: Caustic soda's downstream alumina price is stable, and supply is expected to increase. PVC's new capacity is released continuously, and downstream product enterprise's operating rates are low. Inventory of liquid caustic soda and PVC has different changes, such as liquid caustic soda's East China factory - warehouse inventory increased by 2.0% [7][12]. Group 3: Crude Oil Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Crude oil prices are running weakly recently. The trading logic is mainly about geopolitical risks and supply - demand relaxation pressure. Geopolitical factors may affect supply, and macro - level factors and basic - level supply - demand also impact the market. The market is bearish, but the price stabilizes after a decline. Short - term observation is recommended [15]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread Changes**: On August 11th, Brent decreased by 0.57% to 66.21 dollars/barrel, and WTI decreased by 0.67% to 63.45 dollars/barrel. Some spreads also changed, such as Brent M1 - M3 decreased by 12.73% [15]. - **Market Analysis**: Geopolitical factors like the US - Russia cease - fire negotiation may increase supply expectations. Macro - level new tariffs and sanctions threats affect demand. OPEC +'s production increase and the end of the peak oil - using season strengthen the bearish sentiment [15]. Group 4: Polyolefin Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View In August, the supply of PP and PE increases due to less maintenance and new device production. Demand is at a low level currently, but there is potential for replenishment as the seasonal peak approaches. The overall valuation is moderately high, and the fundamental contradiction is not significant [20]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread Changes**: On August 8th, prices of futures contracts like L2601 decreased by 0.27%. Some spreads also changed, such as L2509 - 2601 decreased by 19.40% [20]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: Supply pressure of PP and PE increases in August. Downstream operating rates are low, and inventory of enterprises and society has different degrees of increase [20]. Group 5: Methanol Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The inventory of methanol accumulates significantly at ports this week. Domestic production is at a high level, and imports in August are still high. Downstream demand is weak due to low profits. 09 contract has a strong inventory - accumulation expectation, while 01 contract has expectations of seasonal peak and Iranian device shutdown [23]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread Changes**: On August 8th, MA2601's closing price decreased by 0.88% to 2475 yuan/ton. Some spreads like MA91 spread increased by 15.60% [23]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 9.50%, and port inventory increased by 14.48%. Operating rates of some upstream and downstream enterprises changed, such as Shanghai - domestic enterprise's operating rate increased by 2.28% [23]. Group 6: Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View In the third quarter, the supply - demand of pure benzene is expected to improve, and port inventory may decrease. Short - term price has support, but the rebound space is limited. Styrene's supply is high in the short - term, and its supply - demand pattern is weak, but the downward space is limited [27]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread Changes**: On August 8th, the price of pure benzene's East - China spot decreased by 0.4% to 6125 yuan/ton, and styrene's East - China spot decreased by 1.1% to 7270 yuan/ton. Some spreads also changed, such as pure benzene - naphtha decreased by 1.1% [27]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Pure benzene's Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 4.1% to 16.30 million tons, and styrene's Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 3.0% to 15.90 million tons. Operating rates of some industries in the chain changed, such as the Asian pure benzene operating rate decreased by 1.3% [27]. Group 7: Urea Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The current oscillation of urea is due to the game between the positive factors of the Indian tender's unexpected price and export quota release and the agricultural demand gap. In the short - term, the bullish narrative dominates the market [54]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread Changes**: On August 8th, the 05 - contract price of urea decreased by 0.50% to 1784 yuan/ton, and the 09 - contract price decreased by 0.52% to 1728 yuan/ton. Some spreads and basis also changed [52]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Although some enterprises like Hualu Hengsheng are under maintenance, the daily output of urea is still at a high level. The demand impulse from the Indian tender and export policy cannot be falsified in the short - term [54].

Report Summary Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Glass: Market sentiment has stabilized, and attention should be paid to the restocking intensity at the end of the month. The fundamental situation has weakened in the short term, with frequent regulatory actions from the exchange, so short - term risks should be vigilant. [1][40] -纯碱: The fundamental situation has not improved, and it will fluctuate weakly in the short term. The market is significantly affected by macro - emotions, and subsequent changes in market sentiment should be monitored. [1][5] Summary by Section 1. Soda Ash - **Price**: Spot prices remained stable this week, with the price difference between heavy and light soda ash remaining stable. Futures prices were weakly stable last week, with the main SA2509 contract closing at 1249 (-7), the 9 - 1 spread at - 83 (-6), and the basis of the main 09 contract at +95 (-9). [6][10] - **Supply**: Last week, soda ash production was 744,600 tons (+24,700, +3.46%), with light soda ash production at 321,200 tons (+9,900) and heavy soda ash production at 423,400 tons (+14,800). The operating rate was 85.41% (+5.14%). [5][16] - **Demand**: Last week, the shipment volume of soda ash enterprises was 675,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12.13%; the overall production - sales rate was 90.69%, a week - on - week decrease of 19.14%. Demand weakened slightly last week, and downstream enterprises mainly purchased on a rigid - demand basis. Net exports decreased. [5][25] - **Inventory**: Last week, the inventory of soda ash enterprises was 1.8651 million tons (+69,300, +3.86%), with light soda ash inventory at 717,600 tons (+24,600) and heavy soda ash inventory at 114,750 tons (+44,700). [5][32] - **Cost and Profit**: Last week, the profit of the dual - ton combined - soda process was +68.5 yuan/ton (-38), and the profit of the ammonia - soda process was +56.2 yuan/ton (-0.9), remaining basically flat overall. [5][37] 2. Glass - **Price**: Spot prices were stable with a slight decline last week. The main 2509 contract closed at 1063 (-39), the 9 - 1 spread was - 133 (-11), and the basis of the main 09 contract was +197 (-1). [40][41][48] - **Supply**: Last week, the daily output of float glass in production was 159,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.00%. The production was 110.70 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.16%. The operating rate was 75.00%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.34%, and the capacity utilization rate was 79.78%, a week - on - week increase of 0.13%. [40][54] - **Demand**: As of the end of July, the order days of deep - processing enterprises were 9.55 days, an increase of 0.25 compared to the previous period. Downstream demand recovery was slow. The real - estate market recovery was weak, while the automobile production and sales situation in June was at a relatively high level in recent years. [40][63] - **Inventory**: Last week, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 61.847 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week increase of 3.95%. Inventory increased in all regions. [40][70] - **Cost and Profit**: Last week, the profit of coal - gas - made float glass was +111.05 yuan/ton (-27.09); the profit of natural - gas - made float glass was - 150.36 yuan/ton (+0); the profit of petroleum - coke - made float glass was - 130.57 yuan/ton (-7.14). Industry profits were stable in the short term. [40][84]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the resilience of China's capital goods exports amid global geopolitical risks and the potential impact of the 232 tariffs and ASEAN export restrictions on future export performance [1][2][3]. Export Performance - In July, China's export growth was slightly better than expected, with a year-on-year increase of 7.2% in dollar terms, up from 5.9% in the previous month [9]. - The export growth to ASEAN and Latin America showed significant improvement, recording increases of 16.6% and 7.7% respectively, likely due to preemptive shipments ahead of the August tariff implementation [9]. - Exports to the U.S. saw a decline of 21.7%, while exports to the EU and other regions rebounded, with growth rates of 9.2% and 19.3% respectively [9]. Risks and Future Outlook - The article highlights that exports are expected to moderate, primarily due to the impact of the 232 tariffs and regulatory scrutiny on transshipments [2]. - The key risks include the potential for additional tariffs on exempt products and the enforcement of stricter transshipment regulations by Vietnam and other Southeast Asian countries [2]. - The article suggests that the export of capital goods may exhibit medium-term resilience, driven by global trends of industrial backup and capacity transfer to emerging markets due to geopolitical tensions [3].

Market Overview - The US dollar index declined by 0.56%, closing at 98.17, influenced by expectations of interest rate cuts following comments from Federal Reserve officials [1][2] - Spot gold prices fell by 0.35%, ending at $3368.97 per ounce after reaching a near two-week high, marking the end of a four-day rally [1][2] - Spot silver remained relatively stable, closing up 0.05% at $37.809 per ounce [1][2] Geopolitical and Economic Factors - The geopolitical tension between the US and Russia is intensifying, with President Trump indicating a potential three-party summit next week, while Senator Rubio warned of possible secondary sanctions against Russia within 24-36 hours, creating a mixed risk environment that raises safe-haven premiums [3] - Discrepancies in Federal Reserve policy are increasing, with Kashkari advocating for two interest rate cuts this year, which reinforces easing expectations, while Trump's potential appointment of a temporary Fed board member poses risks to the credibility of monetary policy [3] Commodity Trading Insights - Precious metals are expected to maintain a volatile trading pattern in the short term, with gold's safe-haven premium strengthening [4] - A strong support level for gold is identified around $3400, while a resistance level is seen near $3450, which may present a breakthrough opportunity [4] - Silver, despite facing pressure from tariffs affecting industrial demand, could see a rebound if it holds above the critical support level of $37, with potential to challenge the $38 mark [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View - Overnight oil prices declined, ending a three - day rally and correcting some risk premiums. Trump's extreme pressure may aim to promote a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine, with a weak intention to block Russian oil and limited impact on the crude oil market. The short - term impact of geopolitical risk events on the crude oil market is limited and cannot reverse the overall trend. After the macro super - week, the market logic will shift more towards fundamentals. This week, focus on the August 3rd OPEC+ meeting and the subsequent reaction of the crude oil market [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1.盘面动态 - As of the close, the September - delivered light crude oil futures price on the New York Mercantile Exchange dropped 74 cents, closing at $69.26 per barrel, a decline of 1.06%. The September - delivered London Brent crude oil futures price fell 71 cents, closing at $72.53 per barrel, a decline of 0.97%. The night - session SC crude oil main contract closed down 0.71%, at 528 yuan per barrel [3]. 3.2.市场动态 - The EIA crude oil inventory increase in the US for the week ending July 25 was the largest since the week ending January 31, 2025, and the EIA gasoline inventory decline was the largest since the week ending April 25, 2025. In May, US oil production reached a record 13.49 million barrels per day, and the supply of crude oil and petroleum products in May both rose to the highest level since January [5]. - The US Middle East envoy met with Netanyahu to discuss issues such as a cease - fire agreement in Gaza. On July 31, the US Middle East envoy Witkoff visited Israel and met with Prime Minister Netanyahu. They will mainly discuss the Gaza cease - fire agreement, the current humanitarian situation in Gaza, and the Iranian nuclear issue. Witkoff also plans to go to Gaza [5]. - Sources said that in the past week, Indian state - owned refiners stopped buying Russian oil due to reduced discounts and Trump's tariff threats. It is necessary to focus on the shipping dynamics of Russian crude oil, as well as the changes in its in - transit crude oil and floating storage inventory. The pressure exerted by the US on Russia has begun to have an impact, but the extent and duration of this impact need further observation. Market concerns will support the crude oil market in the short term [5]. - The US core PCE inflation annual rate unexpectedly rebounded to 2.8% in June, while consumer spending almost stagnated. After the release of the June PCE indicators last night, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September further decreased, from nearly 70% to below 40%. If Trump wants to push the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, he must effectively control energy prices, especially oil prices [5]. 3.3.全球原油盘面价格及价差变动 - Provided price and spread data of various crude oils (Brent, WTI, SC, Dubai, Oman, Murban) on July 31, 30, and 24, 2025, including daily and weekly price changes and differences between different contracts [6].