Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing unprecedented strength due to factors such as interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and escalating geopolitical risks [1][4][6]. Precious Metals Performance - As of September 28, silver prices surged past $46 per ounce, marking a 1.91% increase and reaching a 14-year high. Platinum rose by 15.4% over the week, surpassing $1500 per ounce, a 12-year high [1]. - Gold has set new historical highs 36 times this year, with a cumulative increase of 43%. The largest gold ETF, SPDR, has seen its holdings rise to 1005.72 tons, the highest since August 2022 [4][6]. Market Dynamics - The increase in gold prices is attributed to lower opportunity costs for holding gold due to interest rate cuts, a weaker dollar, and heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which have boosted market risk aversion [6]. - Analysts predict that gold prices will continue to trend upwards, supported by expectations of further interest rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical tensions [6][7]. Gold ETF Activity - SPDR significantly increased its holdings in September, adding 18.9 tons on September 19, 6.01 tons on September 22, and 8.87 tons on September 26, pushing its total holdings above 1000 tons [6]. - The overall increase in gold ETFs this year has exceeded 37%, with Shanghai gold ETFs rising over 45% and gold stock ETFs increasing by more than 77% [9]. Gold Mining Stocks - The gold sector has seen a remarkable increase of 67.5% this year, with some stocks like Western Gold, Chao Hong Ji, and China Gold rising over 150% [13]. - Several gold companies, including Zijin Mining and Chao Hong Ji, are planning to go public or have recently listed, indicating strong market interest [10][11]. Shareholder Activity - Despite the rising stock prices, some shareholders are taking profits, as evidenced by recent share reductions by Schroders PLC and other stakeholders in various gold companies [13][14].

Group 1: Precious Metals Market Overview - The precious metals market is experiencing unprecedented strong performance, driven by factors such as Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and increasing geopolitical risks [1][2] - On September 26, silver prices surpassed $46 per ounce, reaching a 14-year high, with a six-month increase of over 30% and a year-to-date rise of 59%, outperforming most commodities [2][3] - Platinum also saw significant gains, with a weekly increase of 11.5%, breaking through $1500 per ounce, marking a 12-year high [1][5] Group 2: Silver Price Dynamics - The average silver price for 2024 is projected at $28.27 per ounce, compared to $23.35 per ounce in 2023 [3] - The rise in silver prices is attributed to its dual role as both a precious and industrial metal, benefiting from economic conditions such as rising inflation and loose liquidity [3][4] - The current gold-silver ratio is approximately 82 domestically and 85 internationally, significantly higher than historical averages, indicating potential for price correction in silver [4] Group 3: Platinum and Gold Performance - Platinum prices surged to $1584 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of over 73%, driven by demand in automotive catalysts and electric vehicle batteries [5] - Gold remains strong near historical highs, with a current price of $3783 per ounce, supported by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid global uncertainties [5][6] - In September, global gold ETF inflows reached a record $10.5 billion, with total inflows exceeding $50 billion year-to-date, indicating robust demand for gold [5][6] Group 4: Future Outlook and Risks - Analysts suggest that while silver has strong upward momentum, caution is advised due to potential price volatility following rapid increases [7][8] - The macroeconomic environment, including expectations of continued monetary easing and geopolitical uncertainties, is expected to support silver prices, but risks remain regarding speculative profit-taking and changes in U.S. inflation data [7][8] - The outlook for gold is mixed, with short-term fluctuations expected due to market adjustments to interest rate expectations, while long-term trends may favor upward movement due to central bank purchases and global liquidity conditions [8]

Group 1 - Silver prices surged to a 14-year high, exceeding $46 per ounce, with a six-month increase of over 30%. Platinum also saw a significant rise, breaking through $1500 per ounce, marking a 12-year high. This surge is driven by expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and escalating geopolitical risks [2][4][12] - The People's Bank of China has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for four consecutive months, with the one-year LPR at 3% and the five-year LPR at 3.5%. Analysts suggest there is still room for further rate cuts within the year, potentially leading to lower mortgage rates [2][4] - The first batch of new floating-rate funds has shown impressive performance, with 23 out of 26 funds achieving positive returns since inception, and three funds exceeding a 40% return rate. The performance differences are attributed to various factors including benchmarks and fund manager capabilities [2][4] Group 2 - The U.S. stock market is experiencing high valuations, as noted by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who indicated that stock prices appear overvalued based on several metrics. However, he did not signal any imminent interest rate cuts, which disappointed the market [5][19] - Recent data indicates a mixed performance in global stock markets, with Chinese indices showing gains while U.S. indices experienced declines. The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong fell by 1.57% [6][12] - In the bond market, the one-year Chinese government bond yield slightly decreased by 0.75 basis points, while the ten-year U.S. government bond yield rose by 6 basis points [8][9]

Group 1 - Gold prices have surged 120% over the past three years, with a 40% increase in the first half of this year alone, surpassing last year's 26% rise [1][3] - Institutions have raised their gold price forecasts, with some predicting prices could reach $5,000 per ounce [3][4] - Central banks are increasing their gold reserves, with China's central bank purchasing gold for ten consecutive months, leading to a significant shift in reserve strategies [6][8] Group 2 - The decline in interest rates makes holding gold more attractive, as it reduces the opportunity cost of not holding interest-bearing assets [10][12] - Geopolitical risks, such as tensions in the Middle East and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, are driving investors towards gold as a safe asset [12][14] - Historical data shows that gold prices tend to rise significantly during crises, averaging a 5.5% increase within 8-20 days after such events [14][18] Group 3 - Analysts have mixed views on the future of gold prices, with some predicting continued upward momentum while others caution against chasing high prices [16][21] - Goldman Sachs reports a historic high in the number of investors bullish on gold prices [19] - Predictions for gold prices in the short to long term vary, with potential ranges from $2,500 to $4,500 depending on various economic factors [22] Group 4 - Consumers are advised to approach gold investments cautiously, considering options like gold ETFs or physical gold bars, while avoiding high-risk instruments like futures [27][29] - Young consumers looking to purchase gold jewelry are exploring alternatives due to rising prices, such as buying gold bars directly or using old gold for exchanges [30][31] - Retailers in the gold jewelry sector are facing challenges, with significant declines in sales and store closures attributed to high gold prices [33]

Group 1: Precious Metals Market Overview - The precious metals market is experiencing unprecedented strength, driven by factors such as Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and increasing geopolitical risks [1][3] - On September 26, silver prices surpassed $46 per ounce, reaching a 14-year high, with a six-month increase of over 30% [1][3] - Platinum prices surged by 11.5% in one week, breaking through $1500 per ounce, marking a 12-year high [1][3] Group 2: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver's recent price surge is attributed to its dual role as both a precious and industrial metal, benefiting from economic conditions such as rising inflation and loose liquidity [4][5] - The average price of silver is projected to be $28.27 per ounce in 2024, up from $23.35 in 2023 [4] - The current gold-silver ratio is approximately 82 domestically and 85 internationally, indicating that silver is still undervalued and has significant price recovery potential [5] Group 3: Platinum and Gold Performance - Platinum prices have increased significantly, with a year-to-date rise of over 73%, driven by demand in automotive catalysts and electric vehicle batteries [7] - Gold remains strong near historical highs, with a current price of $3783 per ounce, supported by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid global uncertainties [7][8] - In September, global gold ETF inflows reached a record $10.5 billion, with total inflows exceeding $50 billion year-to-date [7] Group 4: Future Outlook and Market Sentiment - Analysts suggest that while silver has strong upward momentum, caution is advised due to potential price volatility at high levels [10][11] - The macroeconomic environment, including expectations of continued monetary easing and geopolitical uncertainties, is expected to support silver prices [10][11] - Central bank gold purchases are anticipated to remain a long-term strategic behavior, aimed at optimizing foreign exchange reserves and hedging against global uncertainties [8]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing unprecedented strength due to factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and increasing geopolitical risks [1] Group 1: Silver Market Performance - On September 26, silver prices surpassed $46 per ounce, reaching a 14-year high, with a six-month increase of over 30% and a year-to-date rise of 59%, outperforming most commodities [2][3] - The average silver price for 2024 is projected at $28.27 per ounce, compared to $23.35 per ounce in 2023 [4] - The rise in silver prices is attributed to its dual role as both a precious and industrial metal, benefiting from economic conditions such as rising inflation and liquidity [4][5] Group 2: Platinum and Gold Market Trends - Platinum prices also surged, with a 2.5% increase on September 27, reaching $1584 per ounce, marking an 11.5% weekly rise [7] - Gold remains strong near historical highs, with a current price of $3783 per ounce, supported by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid global uncertainties [8] - In September, global gold ETF inflows reached a record $10.5 billion, with total inflows exceeding $50 billion year-to-date [8] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The current gold-silver ratio is approximately 82 domestically and 85 internationally, significantly higher than historical averages, indicating potential for silver price recovery [5] - Analysts suggest that while silver has strong upward momentum, caution is advised due to potential price volatility and the impact of changing economic conditions [9][10] - The outlook for gold remains optimistic due to ongoing central bank purchases and a trend towards de-dollarization, with expectations of a gradual price increase [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Precious Metals**: Affected by the divergence in Fed policy expectations, geopolitical risks, and changes in gold ETF holdings, the medium - to long - term outlook for gold is supported by the Fed's potential interest rate cuts and declining real interest rates [3]. - **Copper**: The impact of the Freeport copper mine incident exceeded expectations, causing short - term over - appreciation of copper prices [19]. - **Aluminum**: After the September interest rate cut, the macro - driving force subsided. The trading of Shanghai aluminum may focus on fundamentals, and short - term prices may fluctuate with a slight upward trend [37]. - **Zinc**: The supply side is in a surplus state, and the demand side shows no signs of a peak season. In the short term, zinc prices will likely move in a range, and the current trading strategy is mainly based on the long - domestic and short - overseas logic [67]. - **Nickel**: Concerns about the stability of nickel ore supply have increased, and prices of MHP and nickel salts may continue to rise. Nickel iron prices are restricted by stainless steel demand, and stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend [82]. - **Tin**: With the Fed's interest rate decision settled, the macro impact on tin prices has diminished. In the short term, due to tight supply and weak demand, tin prices are likely to move in a range [97]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: As the National Day approaches, the market's expectation of a shutdown on September 30 has decreased significantly. Before the National Day holiday, lithium carbonate futures prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate [108]. - **Silicon**: Before the National Day, the willingness to stock up has declined. The industrial silicon market will continue the pattern of "strong expectation, weak reality." Polysilicon prices fluctuate sharply, and investors are advised to be cautious [117]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Influence Factors**: Fed policy expectations, geopolitical risks, and changes in gold ETF holdings affect gold prices. The upward revision of the US Q2 GDP restrains short - term interest rate cut expectations, while geopolitical risks and increased domestic gold ETF holdings provide support [3]. - **Price Charts**: Include SHFE gold and silver futures prices, COMEX gold prices and gold - silver ratios, and the relationship between gold and US Treasury real interest rates [4][9]. Copper - **Market Situation**: The impact of the Freeport copper mine incident was longer than expected, leading to short - term over - appreciation of copper prices [19]. - **Price Data**: Spot and futures prices showed different changes. For example, Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper decreased by 0.02%, while Guangdong Southern Storage increased by 0.22%. In the futures market, the Shanghai copper main contract decreased by 0.29% [22][23]. - **Inventory and Import Data**: Copper inventories in various regions changed, and copper imports showed a significant increase in losses [34][28]. Aluminum - **Aluminum**: The core factors affecting aluminum prices are macro - policy expectations and peak - season fundamentals. After the September interest rate cut, the focus shifted to fundamentals, and short - term prices may fluctuate with a slight upward trend [37]. - **Alumina**: The contradiction in bauxite lies in the tight domestic supply and low shipments from Guinea, while the inventory is at a high level. Alumina supply is in surplus, and short - term prices are likely to be weak [38]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: After the macro - driving force subsided, the market focused on fundamentals. With mixed long and short factors, short - term prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate [39]. - **Price and Spread Data**: Provided prices of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, as well as various spreads and basis data [40][44][52]. - **Inventory Data**: Aluminum and alumina inventories in different regions changed, and the impact on prices needs to be monitored [61]. Zinc - **Market Situation**: The supply side is in a surplus state, and the demand side shows no signs of a peak season. LME inventories are decreasing, showing an external - strong and internal - weak pattern. Short - term prices are likely to move in a range [67]. - **Price Data**: Zinc futures and spot prices showed different changes, and various spreads and basis data were provided [68][73]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai zinc and LME zinc inventories changed, and the impact on prices needs to be observed [78]. Nickel - **Market Situation**: Concerns about the stability of nickel ore supply have increased, and prices of MHP and nickel salts may continue to rise. Nickel iron prices are restricted by stainless steel demand, and stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend [82]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: Provided prices of nickel, nickel iron, and stainless steel, as well as inventory data [83]. Tin - **Market Situation**: After the Fed's interest rate decision, the macro impact on tin prices has diminished. In the short term, due to tight supply and weak demand, tin prices are likely to move in a range [97]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: Provided tin futures and spot prices, as well as inventory data [98][104]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Situation**: As the National Day approaches, the market's expectation of a shutdown on September 30 has decreased significantly. Before the National Day holiday, lithium carbonate futures prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate [108]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: Provided lithium carbonate futures and spot prices, as well as inventory data [109][111][115]. Silicon - **Market Situation**: Before the National Day, the willingness to stock up has declined. The industrial silicon market will continue the pattern of "strong expectation, weak reality." Polysilicon prices fluctuate sharply, and investors are advised to be cautious [117]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: Provided prices of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and other products, as well as inventory data [118][119][146].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, weakening in oscillation, and slightly closing lower. With the implementation of the Fed's interest rate cut expectation, the short - term positive factors are exhausted. The rubber market has shifted to a weak supply - demand structure, and it is expected to maintain a weak oscillating trend in the future [6]. - The domestic methanol futures 2601 contract showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, weakening in oscillation, and slightly closing lower. Suppressed by the weak methanol supply - demand fundamentals, it is expected to maintain a weak oscillating trend in the future [6]. - The domestic crude oil futures 2511 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, strengthening in oscillation, and slightly rising. Due to the continuous attacks on Russian oil production facilities by Ukraine and the US President's statement on imposing strong tariff sanctions on Russia, the geopolitical risks have increased. It is expected to maintain a strong oscillating trend in the future [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of September 21, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 461,200 tons, a decrease of 3,600 tons or 0.76% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory decreased by 5.07%, and the general trade inventory increased by 0.04%. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses increased by 0.59 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 2.91 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.32 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.78 percentage points [10]. - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 73.70%, a week - on - week increase of 1.09 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.40 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.70%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.61 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 8.30 percentage points [10]. - In August 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 57.0%, a year - on - year increase of 0.8 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 0.2 percentage points. The China Logistics Prosperity Index in August 2025 was 50.9%, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous month. In August 2025, the heavy - truck market sold about 84,000 vehicles, a 1% month - on - month decrease and a 35% year - on - year increase. The cumulative sales in the first 8 months of 2025 reached 710,000 vehicles, a 13% year - on - year increase [11]. Methanol - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 79.39%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.81%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.26%, and a year - on - year decrease of 1.53%. The average weekly methanol output was 1.8132 million tons, a significant week - on - week decrease of 106,100 tons, a significant month - on - month decrease of 84,200 tons, and a slight decrease of 30,200 tons compared with the same period last year [12]. - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 31.54%, a week - on - week increase of 1.06%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 6.68%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.11%. The acetic acid operating rate was 75.72%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.84%. The MTBE operating rate was 57.66%, a week - on - week increase of 1.85%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 82.88%, a week - on - week increase of 3.33 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 3.58 percentage points. The domestic methanol - to - olefin futures profit was - 183 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 41 yuan/ton and a significant month - on - month decrease of 26 yuan/ton [12]. - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 1.3298 million tons, a significant week - on - week increase of 62,500 tons, a significant month - on - month increase of 395,600 tons, and a significant increase of 487,200 tons compared with the same period last year. The inland methanol inventory was 340,500 tons, a slight week - on - week decrease of 2,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29,600 tons, and a significant decrease of 94,200 tons compared with the same period last year [13][14]. Crude Oil - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the US was 418, a week - on - week increase of 2 and a decrease of 70 compared with the same period last year. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.482 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 13,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 282,000 barrels per day [15]. - As of the week of September 12, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 415 million barrels, a significant week - on - week decrease of 9.285 million barrels and a significant decrease of 2.152 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 23.561 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 296,000 barrels. The US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 405.7 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 504,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was 93.9%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.60 percentage points, a month - on - month decrease of 3.3 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 1.2 percentage points [15]. - As of September 16, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 98,709 contracts, a significant week - on - week increase of 16,865 contracts and a significant decrease of 23,354 contracts or 19.13% compared with the August average. The average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 220,410 contracts, a significant week - on - week increase of 14,635 contracts and a 8.94% increase compared with the August average. Overall, the net long positions in the WTI crude oil futures market decreased significantly week - on - week, while those in the Brent crude oil futures market increased significantly [16]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,700 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 15,470 yuan/ton | - 100 yuan/ton | - 770 yuan/ton | +100 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,270 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 2,355 yuan/ton | - 1 yuan/ton | - 85 yuan/ton | +1 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 454.6 yuan/barrel | +0.1 yuan/barrel | 491.3 yuan/barrel | +0.7 yuan/barrel | - 36.7 yuan/barrel | - 0.7 yuan/barrel | [18] 3. Related Charts - Rubber - related charts include rubber basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, full - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [19][21][27] - Methanol - related charts include methanol basis, methanol 1 - 5 spread, methanol domestic port inventory, methanol inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [35][37][42] - Crude oil - related charts include crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [49][51][57]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of crude oil futures is expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being volatile, and an intraday bias towards a volatile and strong trend [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Time - cycle Views - **Short - term**: The short - term view of crude oil 2511 is volatile [1]. - **Medium - term**: The medium - term view of crude oil 2511 is volatile [1]. - **Intraday**: The intraday view of crude oil 2511 is volatile and strong, and it is expected to run strongly [1][5]. 3.2 Core Logic - Geopolitical factors support the price of crude oil. Recently, Ukraine has continuously attacked Russian oil production facilities, Russia has stated that it may extend the ban on refined oil exports if necessary, and Trump has said that the US will impose strong tariff sanctions on Russia. These actions by Western countries and Ukraine aim to strike at Russia's oil exports, enhancing geopolitical risks and causing a phased rebound in crude oil futures prices [5]. 3.3 Price Performance - On Thursday night, domestic and international crude oil futures prices showed a volatile and strong trend. The domestic crude oil futures 2511 contract slightly rose 0.45% to 491.1 yuan per barrel, and it is expected that the domestic crude oil futures price on Friday will maintain a volatile and strong trend [5].

安如泰山 信守承诺 具体来看，本周油市的偏强表现受到俄乌局势、伊朗核谈、委内瑞拉出口限制多方因素的共振推动，那么 这些因素的利多影响是否可持续? 十一前后油市地缘风险升温,核心聚焦俄乌演绎 能源评论 本周地缘风险的升温再次引领原油系品种上行，从相对强弱来看，近两个交易日布伦特涨3.8%、WTI涨 4%，截至周四上午收盘内盘SC涨3.6%、FU涨4.6%、LU涨2.7%、BU涨1.9%，即对外部地缘犹动更为敏感的 原油、燃料油期货涨幅居前。 在8月15日美俄元首的阿拉斯加会谈未取得明确成果后，近期特朗普言论再次倒向支持乌克兰，不仅反复要 求欧盟国家停止购买俄罗斯所有能源产品，还称乌方可能"赢回全部乌克兰，恢复原状" Polvmarket对年内 小ツ 血档/水江 郑大邱 今 竹 吊 称 ￣q ， 梁 今 Ｊ 昭 厕 王 จ 为 一 ， 权 报 不 ， ヤ ym Kr 铁 中 中 中 中 中 中 中 中 中 中 中 中 中持续对俄罗斯施压，8月俄罗斯炼厂遇袭受影响的产能在120万桶/天左右，在俄罗斯占比17％，9月以来全国 炼厂加工量494万桶/天，较8月水平进一步下降15万桶/天，目最新周度数据显示开工率仍在环比 ...