Group 1: Energy and Metals Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices fell, with the Brent 01 contract down 1.15%. Positive progress in US-Ukraine peace talks led to a decline in geopolitical risks and oil prices. There is a greater expectation of inventory accumulation in Q4 and Q1 next year, and the downward driver of oil prices remains. The near-term risk is whether Russia can accept the latest version of the peace plan [2]. Precious Metals - Overnight, precious metals oscillated. The US retail sales month-on-month rate in September was 0.2%, lower than expected and the previous value. PPI was basically in line with expectations. There is strong uncertainty in interest rate cuts and geopolitical prospects, and precious metals are oscillating at high levels waiting for a directional breakthrough [3]. Copper - Overnight, copper prices fluctuated greatly. The US ADP employment report showed a weak labor market. The probability of an interest rate cut in December is expected to rise above 80%. US copper exchange inventories have reached a record high. Codelco's premium for long-term refined copper contracts to East Asia is high. Pay attention to the increase in positions of Shanghai copper and the performance of the MA40 moving average after taking profits on previous long positions [4]. Aluminum - Overnight, Shanghai aluminum fell slightly. After the price correction, downstream buyers replenished inventory at low prices. Demand has resilience but lacks highlights. The macro sentiment has been fluctuating recently, and the industrial contradictions are limited. Shanghai aluminum is oscillating and adjusting after breaking below the middle track of the Bollinger Band, with support around 21,100 yuan [5]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The spot price of Baotai ADC12 remains at 20,700 yuan. Scrap aluminum supply is tight, and the tax policy adjustment is still unclear. Industry inventories and exchange warehouse receipts are at high levels, and cast aluminum alloy continues to fluctuate with aluminum prices [6]. Alumina - Alumina operating capacity is at a historical high, and industry inventories and exchange warehouse receipts are rising. The supply surplus pattern is hard to change. Before large-scale production cuts occur, alumina will mainly operate weakly [7]. Zinc - Overseas funds have a strong control over the market. LME zinc warehouse receipts increased slightly to 48,000 tons, and the 0 - 3 month spot premium is as high as $120.77/ton. The domestic zinc mine supply is tightening, and the TC of domestic and overseas mines has been lowered. The bottom support of Shanghai zinc is strong, but the domestic demand outlook is under pressure. In the short term, there is no clear directional signal, and it is expected to oscillate in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan/ton [8]. Lead - LME lead inventories are at a high level of 265,000 tons, and the 0 - 3 month discount is $35.57/ton. The domestic fundamentals are neutral, and the trading sentiment of funds is weak. Track the dynamics of smelters and wait for low - buying opportunities [9]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounded, and the market trading was active. The stainless steel cost support continues to decline. Although Shanghai nickel inventory has decreased slightly, the short - term contradiction lies in the macro level. Short on rebounds [10]. Tin - Overnight, tin prices oscillated at high levels. The short - term upward exploration sentiment of domestic and international tin prices remains. Short at high levels, holding short positions near 298,000 yuan [11]. Carbonate Lithium - The carbonate lithium futures price rebounded, and the market trading was active. The market total inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 118,000 tons. The futures price oscillates violently at high levels, and risk control should be the priority [12]. Industrial Silicon - The weekly operating rates of Xinjiang and Southwest production areas remained flat. The demand reduction plan of the silicone industry has a relatively limited impact on the overall supply - demand pattern. In the short term, industrial silicon futures will continue to oscillate [13]. Polysilicon - The spot price of N - type polysilicon feedstock remains in the narrow range of 49,600 - 54,900 yuan/ton. The short - term futures price is affected by both the "anti - involution" sentiment and its own fundamentals and will continue to oscillate [14]. Group 2: Steel and Related Products Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Night - trading steel prices fell. The downstream carrying capacity is insufficient, and steel mills continue to suffer losses. The supply pressure will gradually ease. The domestic demand is still weak, and steel exports have declined from the high level. The spot price is relatively firm recently, and the futures price has the momentum to rebound and repair the basis, but the weak demand restricts the upside space [15]. Iron Ore - The iron ore overnight futures oscillated. The supply is relatively abundant, and the demand is in a seasonal decline trend. The fundamentals of iron ore are relatively loose, and the futures price is expected to oscillate [16]. Coke - The intraday price oscillated. The coking profit is average, and the daily production is slightly decreasing. The overall carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream demand has some resilience. The steel mills have a strong willingness to suppress raw material prices. The coke futures price may oscillate weakly [17]. Coking Coal - The intraday price oscillated weakly. The total inventory of coking coal decreased slightly. The downstream demand has some resilience, and the steel mills have a strong willingness to suppress raw material prices. The coking coal futures price may oscillate weakly [18]. Manganese Silicon - The intraday price oscillated. The market expects a decrease in power costs and chemical coke prices. The silicon - manganese inventory is slowly increasing. The bottom support expectation has shifted downwards [19]. Silicon Iron - The intraday price oscillated. The market expects a decrease in power costs and blue carbon prices. The overall demand still has some resilience. The supply of silicon iron remains at a high level, and the bottom support will be tested [20]. Group 3: Shipping and Fuels Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The possibility of resuming navigation in the Red Sea is increasing. Once new ships resume navigation, the far - month contracts will be under great pressure due to the significant surplus of shipping capacity. If the cargo volume continues to recover, there may be a price increase again in late December or early January [21]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The decline in international oil prices dragged down fuel oil prices overnight. For high - sulfur fuel oil, the geopolitical risk premium and sanctions intensity are expected to gradually decline, but it will still be supported by supply fluctuations in the short term. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the supply is still abundant recently, and it is expected to weaken [22]. Asphalt - Since November, the weekly shipment volume has been at the lowest level in the same period in the past four years. The subsequent demand will follow the seasonal weakening rule, and the medium - to - long - term fundamentals are bearish for asphalt [23]. Group 4: Chemical Products Urea - The spot price of urea in the "Four Provinces" is stable with a slight decline, while the price in the Northeast continues to rise. The supply is abundant. The domestic oversupply pattern is expected to continue, and the price may return to a stalemate after the decline [24]. Methanol - The methanol futures price adjusted narrowly. The bullish expectation of overseas plant production cuts is gradually being realized, and the methanol valuation is low. However, the reality is still weak, and attention should be paid to the reduction intensity and duration of supply and market sentiment changes [25]. Pure Benzene - The domestic night - trading external crude oil price plummeted, and pure benzene operated weakly. The domestic arrival expectation is high, and the downstream demand is decreasing. Adopt the idea of shorting on rebounds and consider option allocation [26]. Styrene - The output of styrene factories is expected to decrease slightly, and the downstream demand remains good. The supply - demand balance is tight, and the total inventory continues to decline, which supports the styrene price [27]. Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - The propylene market lacks news guidance. The supply pressure of polyethylene increases. The supply of polypropylene is expected to increase slightly. The demand side is affected by the weak raw material prices, and the purchasing enthusiasm is limited [28]. PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC oscillated. The supply of PVC is high, and the demand is weak. Pay attention to cost - end changes. Caustic soda oscillated. The supply is under high pressure, and the downstream demand is insufficient. Caustic soda operates weakly [29]. PX and PTA - The short - term supply - demand of PX weakens, but it is expected to be strong in the medium term. PTA's processing margin is low, and the inventory accumulation expectation eases. Before the Spring Festival, it follows the cost - driven logic [30]. Ethylene Glycol - The weekly output of ethylene glycol decreased. There is a short - term rebound expectation, but the inventory will accumulate around the Spring Festival, and the medium - term rebound space is limited [31]. Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - Short - fiber has no new investment pressure, and the absolute price fluctuates with raw materials. Bottle - chip demand fades, and the long - term pressure is over - capacity. It is mainly cost - driven [32]. Group 5: Building Materials Glass - The glass intraday price oscillated. The profit is narrowing, and the cold - repair speed is accelerating. The demand is insufficient. The price is supported by cost, and the downside space is limited. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities and the strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash [33]. 20 - Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Butadiene Rubber - The international crude oil price fell sharply, and the Thai raw material market price decreased. The demand continues to weaken, the natural rubber supply is decreasing, the synthetic rubber supply is increasing, and the inventory is increasing. RU is relatively strong, NR and BR are under observation, and pay attention to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [34]. Soda Ash - The soda ash intraday price was weak. The industry continues to destock. The short - term focus is on the upstream cost fluctuations, and the long - term supply - demand is in surplus. Pay attention to the strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash [35]. Group 6: Agricultural Products Soybean and Soybean Meal - The domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and the soybean meal inventory is accumulating. The Brazilian and Argentine soybean production may be affected by the La Nina phenomenon. Wait for the end of the callback and pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [36]. Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - Palm oil continues to decline weakly, and the price difference between soybean oil and palm oil is widening. The short - term palm oil supply - demand is weaker, and it is in the process of finding the bottom [37]. Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - With the arrival of Australian rapeseed in China, the market focuses on customs clearance, pressing yield, and policy details. The domestic rapeseed sector is recommended to be observed in the short term [38]. Soybean No. 1 - Domestic soybeans fluctuate repeatedly. The policy side is still conducting auctions. The supply of high - protein domestic soybeans is tight. US soybeans are expected to oscillate strongly. Pay attention to the domestic soybean spot market and policy guidance [39]. Corn - The night - trading corn futures increased in positions and prices. The market is divided on the new - season corn output. The downstream corn inventory is very low. Pay attention to the replenishment situation after the price increase this week. Wait for the opportunity to short on highs [40]. Pig - The number of fertile sows decreased in October 2025. The spot pig price continues to decline weakly. In the medium - to - long - term, the pig price may form a double - bottom pattern, and there is a high probability of a second bottom - testing next year [41]. Egg - The number of newly - opened laying hens will start to decline continuously from around December. The supply pressure of the egg industry is expected to gradually ease in the medium - term. In the short term, it will still focus on the convergence of the futures - spot price difference [42]. Cotton - US cotton rose slightly. The domestic cotton spot sales basis is stable. The new - cotton cost supports the price but also limits the upside. The cotton commercial inventory is not high, and the sales progress is fast. The pure - cotton yarn market trading is weak. Temporarily observe [43]. Sugar - Overnight, US sugar oscillated. The international market supply is relatively abundant, and US sugar faces upward pressure. In China, the market focuses on the new - season sugar production estimate. The production expectation of Guangxi in the 25/26 sugar season is relatively good [44]. Apple - The futures price oscillates at a high level. The spot price is strong. The short - term price trend is strong. In the medium - to - long - term, the far - month contracts may face inventory pressure. Pay attention to the inventory reduction situation [45]. Wood - The futures price oscillates. The low inventory supports the price. Temporarily observe [46]. Pulp - The pulp futures price fell slightly. The domestic port inventory has increased continuously, the supply is relatively loose, and the demand is weak. Temporarily observe [46]. Group 7: Financial Products Stock Index - A - shares rose strongly yesterday, and all major futures index contracts rose. The macro - liquidity suppression has temporarily eased, and risk assets have a corrective rebound. The market currently focuses on the interaction between geopolitical situations and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations [47]. Treasury Bond - Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, and the market trading became冷清. Policy games and institutional behaviors are still key variables. The futures price may oscillate weakly in the range. Operate with caution [48].

本轮金价急涨是降息预期升温、流动性改善与地缘风险抬头多重因素共振的结果。 11月25日，隔夜国际金价大涨后，早盘继续冲高，最高上探4155.916美元/盎司，随后有所回落，现交投 于4130美元/盎司附近，维持高位震荡。 | 伦敦金现 | | | SPTAUUSDOZ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 4129.087 | | | -5.143 -0.12% | | IDC USD 17:51:29 | | | 8 | | | 4129.499 | | | | 北一 | 4129.087 | | | | 总量 | 0 | 现手 | 0 | | 结算价 | | 开盘 | 4134.230 | | 最高 | 4155.916 | 最低 | 4109.415 | | 均价 | | 振幅 | 1.12% | | 外盘 | 1 | 内盘 | 0 | | 昨结 | 4134.230 | 昨夜 | 4134.230 | | 涨停 | 0.000 | 跌停 | 0.000 | | 持仓 | | 0 增仓 | 0 | | 估结算 | | 基差0 | 0.00 | 期货市场同步走强，COMEX黄金期货延 ...

本轮金价急涨是降息预期升温、流动性改善与地缘风险抬头多重因素共振的结果。 在排排网财富研究员隋东看来，本轮金价上涨的核心驱动力是美联储12月降息预期的显著升温。技术面 上，金价稳站4100美元关键点位并积蓄上行动能，共同助推涨势。展望后市，预计金价短期有望延续反 弹，挑战4200美元/盎司整数关口。操作上，建议短线交易者区间操作，长线投资者则可逢回调分批布 局。鉴于全球央行购金等中长期逻辑依然稳固，黄金的上涨动力预计将持续。 李明玉认为，当下降息前景依旧有较大的不确定性，预计金价在短期仍可能维持宽幅震荡走势。中长期 来看，央行购金具有持续性，叠加全球货币的泛滥和去美元化趋势不可逆甚至加速，将继续支撑金价中 枢上行。投资策略上，建议将黄金作为资产组合中的基本配置，可采取逢低买入策略。 国内黄金消费同步升温：周生生、老凤祥、老庙黄金上海区域足金首饰均报1315元/克，周大福1312元/ 克，六福珠宝1310元/克，集体刷新近期高位。 受访人士普遍指出，本轮金价急涨，正是降息预期升温、流动性改善与地缘风险抬头多重因素共振的结 果。 新湖期货研究所副所长、高级黄金投资分析师李明玉向记者表示，一方面，市场对美联储12月 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The international oil price rebounded overnight, with the SC01 contract rising 0.67% during the day. The geopolitical risk between Russia and Ukraine is entangled between the reality of sanctions and the expectation of peace talks. The market faces a greater expectation of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year, and the downward driving force of oil prices remains. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace plan negotiation and the disturbance of the Venezuela geopolitical risk this week [2] - High-sulfur fuel oil is still supported by supply disturbances in the short term. The geopolitical risk premium and sanctions intensity are expected to gradually decline. The medium-term loose pattern is difficult to change. Low-sulfur fuel oil supply is still abundant recently, and it is expected to follow the weakening trend [3] - Since November, the weekly shipment volume of asphalt has been at the lowest level in the same period in the past four years. The subsequent demand will follow the seasonal weakening law, and the medium- and long-term fundamentals have a negative impact on BU [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The international oil price rebounded overnight, and the SC01 contract rose 0.67% during the day [2] - The geopolitical risk between Russia and Ukraine is entangled between the reality of sanctions and the expectation of peace talks. The US sanctions on Russian oil have come into effect, and the negotiation between the US and Ukraine on the peace plan before the deadline this Thursday is still uncertain [2] - The market faces a greater expectation of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year, and the downward driving force of oil prices remains. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace plan negotiation and the disturbance of the Venezuela geopolitical risk this week [2] Fuel Oil & Low-sulfur Fuel Oil - High-sulfur fuel oil is still supported by supply disturbances in the short term. Russian energy facilities are continuously attacked, and the exports have declined slightly recently. The US sanctions on Russia have come into effect. It is expected that its crack spread and monthly spread will be repaired recently [3] - The geopolitical risk premium and sanctions intensity are expected to gradually decline. The Middle East region will maintain a high level of exports to Asia due to factors such as the decline in power generation demand and the steady production increase of OPEC+. The medium-term loose pattern is difficult to change [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil supply is still abundant recently. The RFCC devices in the Asia-Pacific region have not fully recovered, and the Dangote maintenance has been advanced. As the gasoline and diesel spread declines due to the increase in refinery start-up, low-sulfur fuel oil is expected to follow the weakening trend [3] Asphalt - Since November, the weekly shipment volume of asphalt has been at the lowest level in the same period in the past four years. The latest commercial inventory destocking continues to slow down, and the year-on-year amplitude of social inventory has shown an expanding trend [4] - The recent stable and rising spot price in Shandong has boosted the futures market. The subsequent demand will follow the seasonal weakening law, and the medium- and long-term fundamentals have a negative impact on BU [4]

近期美联储官员密集发声，使市场重新校准政策预期。纽约联储主席威廉姆斯表示，只要经济数据配 合，短期降息不会偏离通胀目标；旧金山联储主席戴利强调劳动力市场存在"非线性恶化"的风险，有必 要及早采取行动；理事沃勒也认为应在12月降息，并倾向按"逐会评估"的方式推进后续政策。在连续的 温和基调推动下，市场迅速消化预期。CMEFedWatch 显示，在下次会议降息 25 个基点的概率已升至约 80%，高于上周水平。这使美元上周积累的强势有所减弱，也为黄金提供了更持久的支撑。 周二欧洲早盘，市场整体延续前一交易日的分化态势：美元在多项美国核心数据公布前维持窄幅震荡， 而黄金在温和的美联储政策信号及复杂的地缘局势推动下继续守在高位区间。随着9月零售销售、PPI、 11月消费者信心指数与每周就业数据即将公布，交易者的注意力不仅集中在数据本身，也开始讨论—— 在重要就业数据延迟发布的情况下，美联储12月会议是否可能调整时间表。 欧洲时段，美元指数稳定在 100 上方波动，整体保持相对克制的节奏。尽管市场风险偏好较高、且对12 月降息的预期持续升温，但投资者在关键数据出炉前并未进一步压低美元，更多选择评估后续信号。主 要货币方 ...

1. Report Information - Report Type: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: November 25, 2025 [2] 2. Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical situation has eased as the US is promoting an end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and has drafted a peace framework. The sanctions on Russian oil by the US are about to take effect, and the proportion of Russian oil with unknown export destinations is rising rapidly, potentially reshaping the trade flow. With the geopolitical risks in the market easing recently and significant inventory accumulation pressure in the fourth quarter, the report suggests a bearish approach to crude oil, recommending shorting on rebounds or reverse arbitrage [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Data**: WTI's opening price was $58.80, closing at $57.98, with a high of $58.80, a low of $57.38, a decline of 1.73%, and a trading volume of 32.42 million lots. Brent's opening price was $62.40, closing at $61.89, with a high of $62.47, a low of $61.26, a decline of 1.45%, and a trading volume of 41.05 million lots. SC's opening price was 449.1 yuan/barrel, closing at 447.9 yuan/barrel, with a high of 449.5 yuan/barrel, a low of 442.5 yuan/barrel, a decline of 1.13%, and a trading volume of 10.81 million lots [6]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Adopt a bearish approach, short on rebounds or engage in reverse arbitrage [6]. 3.2 Industry News - After US sanctions on Russian oil companies, Russian Urals crude is being sold to Indian refiners at the lowest price in at least two years, at a discount of $7 per barrel to Brent spot prices (CIF). Most Indian refiners stopped ordering Russian crude after the sanctions, but some are now considering purchasing from non-sanctioned sellers due to the lower price, with only about one-fifth of the cargoes coming from non-blacklisted entities [7]. - The US is preparing a new round of actions related to Venezuela in the coming days [7]. - The US and Ukraine issued a joint statement stating that they have improved the Russia-Ukraine peace framework [7]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including global high-frequency crude oil inventory, EIA crude oil inventory, US crude oil production growth rate, Dtd Brent price, WTI spot price, Oman spot price, US gasoline consumption, and US diesel consumption, with data sources from EIA, Wind, Bloomberg, and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [9][10][17][21]

下行方面，若金价回落至4130-4132美元区域下方，可能被视为逢低买入机会，预计将在4110-4100美元 区域获得有力支撑。若有效跌破该支撑区间，则将考验前述位于4030-4040美元区域的关键汇合支撑， 此处一旦失守，短期走势将转为看跌，金价或跌向4000美元心理关口。 日内/4小时技术结构偏向多头延续，但需警惕回撤风险。一条自10月底延伸的上行趋势线与4小时图的 200周期指数移动平均线(EMA)形成的支撑带已被验证。 短线阻力集中在约4180美元区域，其上为关键心理关口4200美元，进一步上攻目标指向月度摆动高点附 近的4250美元区域。 如果出现回撤4100美元区域应提供初步支撑；若失守4100美元则更深的多重支撑位在4030美元附近，破 位将把短期偏向转为空头，可能把价格拖向4000美元附近。 今日周二（11月25日）亚盘时段，现货黄金触及一周半新高后小幅回落，目前黄金价格交投于4140美元 附近，昨日金价已成功突破4100美元整数关口并站稳，短期移动均线多头排列，MACD快慢线有金叉趋 势，RSI进入60以上超买区但尚未顶背离，显示上涨动能依然强劲。 美联储内部"鸽声四起"，美联储沃勒和戴利支 ...

周二亚洲盘，黄金继续维持在强势区间震荡，盘中一度摸高至近两周顶部。在市场普遍认为美联储 12 月可能再度降息的背景下，美元在高位表现乏力，资金再次流向黄金，带动金价连续第二日获得支撑。 而俄乌局势加剧、中东冲突反复，也让避险需求保持活跃，为金价提供了另一层推动力。 市场对美联储 12 月降息的预期已经高度反映，若通胀端出现反复，金价可能短线承压。 若后续美国经济数据继续疲弱，美元可能进一步走软，黄金则有望获得更多上行动能。 地缘局势尚未稳定，避险需求仍是推动金价的重要因素。 若接下来美联储官员继续倾向温和立场，金价的上行区间可能进一步打开。 当前黄金主要受到两大因素支撑：政策预期转向宽松、地缘风险维持在偏紧状态。短线回踩仍以技术整 理为主，只要 12 月降息的预期不被数据逆转，金价仍有机会向 4177–4200 区域靠拢。在地缘局势尚未 明显缓和之前，黄金的避险属性预计仍会维持在较高水平。 近期美联储官员密集发声，成为市场预期变化的主导因素。纽约联储主席威廉姆斯上周提到，在经济条 件允许的前提下，调整利率并不会破坏通胀回落进程；而理事沃勒也在公开讲话中强调，就业放缓的迹 象足以支持决策层在 12 月进一步下调 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold will continue to demonstrate its unique allocation value in the medium to long term, supported by factors such as continuous gold purchases by global central banks, monetary policy shifts, ongoing trade uncertainties, and recurring geopolitical risks. Short - term fluctuations in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations only limit gold's upward movement but do not reverse the bullish trend [3][12] - The Fed's interest - rate cut path may be "stop - and - go" due to inflation stickiness and economic data fluctuations. Policy expectation revisions will be a key factor affecting the volatility rhythm of precious metals [3][12] - Global trade tensions and geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine provide support and increase the volatility of precious metals [3][12] Summary by Related Content Fed Policy and Personnel Changes - In 2026, the Fed's Monetary Policy Committee will undergo a major personnel reshuffle. Fed Chair Powell's term ends on May 15, 2026, and Trump's administration is accelerating the selection of a new chair. Five final candidates have been short - listed, with a possible pre - Christmas 2025 announcement. This may lead to a "dual leadership" situation in the first half of 2026 [6] - Atlanta Fed President Bostic will retire in February 2026. His retirement and the selection of his successor will be an important window to observe the White House's influence on the Fed. The Fed's internal policy differences will become more complex, with the dovish camp strengthening and the hawkish camp remaining a counterbalance [7] - Any news of personnel changes may cause the market to re - evaluate the direction of monetary policy, directly affecting precious - metal prices. Investors should closely monitor these changes to predict the 2026 precious - metal market volatility [8] Gold Market Performance in 2025 Q3 - The global gold market showed strong performance in Q3 2025, with both supply and demand booming. Total demand (including over - the - counter transactions) reached 1,313 tons, a record quarterly high, a 3% year - on - year increase. The demand value soared 44% year - on - year to $146 billion. Supply also increased by 3% to 1,313 tons, with mine production rising seasonally to 977 tons and recycled gold supply remaining at a high of 344 tons [8] - The LBMA gold price hit 13 record highs in Q3, with a quarterly average price of $3,456.54 per ounce, a 40% year - on - year increase [8] Gold Market Demand Structure - Investment demand continued to dominate the market in Q3 2025. Global gold ETF holdings increased by 222 tons, and demand for gold bars and coins exceeded 300 tons for the fourth consecutive quarter, reaching 316 tons. Gold jewelry consumption decreased to 371 tons but the consumption value increased to $4.1 billion due to rising gold prices [9] - Global gold ETFs' significant increase in positions drove up the total holdings, with North American and Asian markets being the main sources of capital inflows. As of November 20, 2025, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Shares, increased by 19.13% compared to the end of 2024, indicating strong institutional demand for gold [9] Price Trends and Investment Suggestions - The COMEX gold futures contract may form strong support in the range of $3,900 - $4,000 per ounce. If it can effectively break through the $4,200 mark, the next target may be around $4,400 per ounce. The Shanghai gold futures contract may fluctuate in the range of 900 - 950 yuan per gram [4][13] - Silver is more elastic due to the resonance of supply - demand tightness and financial attributes. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position strategy when gold prices pull back, and focus on the Fed's interest - rate decision path, inflation data inflection points, and geopolitical situations [4][13]

Group 1: Energy and Metals - International oil prices rebounded overnight, with the Brent 01 contract up 1.41%. The Russia-Ukraine geopolitical risk is entangled between sanctions and peace talks. There is a greater expectation of inventory accumulation in Q4 and Q1 next year, and the downward drive for oil prices remains [1]. - Precious metals rose overnight. With multiple Fed officials advocating a December rate cut, the implied probability of a rate cut in the interest rate market rose to 80%. The market is uncertain, and precious metals are oscillating at high levels [2]. - Copper prices oscillated overnight. The domestic spot market shows a certain bullish sentiment, and the SMM social inventory decreased by 1.39 million tons to 18.06 million tons [3]. - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly overnight. The inventory decreased, and the demand has resilience but lacks highlights. The price adjustment may continue, with support at around 21,100 yuan [4]. - Alumina supply is in an oversupply pattern, and it will mainly operate weakly before large-scale production cuts [5]. - Cast aluminum alloy continues to follow the aluminum price, and the spread with AL may narrow [6]. - Zinc prices found support at the 60 - day moving average. The LME zinc 0 - 3 month spot premium remains high. The rebound height of Shanghai zinc is limited, and it is expected to oscillate in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan/ton [7]. - Lead prices are looking for support at the annual line. The export of lead - acid batteries is expected to remain under pressure. Shanghai lead is expected to oscillate in the range of 17,000 - 17,500 yuan/ton [8]. - Shanghai nickel rebounded, and the stainless - steel cost support continues to move down [9]. - Tin prices are mainly considered for short - selling, and call options can be used to hedge risks [10]. - Lithium carbonate futures prices oscillated sharply at high levels, and risk control should be prioritized [11]. - Polysilicon futures prices maintain an oscillating pattern due to weak supply and demand [12]. - Industrial silicon futures maintain an oscillating operation, and attention should be paid to the dynamics of silicone prices [13]. - Steel prices oscillated narrowly at night. Supply pressure is gradually easing, and demand is still weak. Steel prices are expected to oscillate in a range [14]. - Iron ore fundamentals are becoming more relaxed, and the price is expected to oscillate [15]. - Coke prices may oscillate weakly [16]. - Coking coal prices may oscillate weakly [17]. - Silicomanganese prices oscillated. The bottom support expectation has moved down [18]. - Ferrosilicon prices oscillated. The bottom support will be tested [19]. - The SCFIS European route index rose significantly. The 02 contract may maintain a discount, and the price of the 12 contract has limited up - and - down space [20]. - Both high - and low - sulfur fuel oils face pressure from abundant supply and weak demand [21]. - Asphalt prices are expected to oscillate weakly under pressure [22]. Group 2: Chemicals - Urea supply is sufficient, and the market may return to a stalemate [23]. - Methanol futures rose sharply. You can try to go long on the 5 - 9 spread at low prices, but beware of weak reality [24]. - Pure benzene continues the idea of short - selling on rebounds, and options can be considered for allocation [25]. - Styrene supply and demand are in a tight balance, but the sustainability of support is questionable, and the rebound height is limited [26]. - Polypropylene, polyethylene, and propylene prices have certain low - level support, but the supply pressure of polyethylene increases, and the demand of polypropylene and polyethylene is weak [27]. - PVC may follow the cost, and caustic soda runs weakly [28]. - PX is still strong before new capacity is put into production, and PTA is mainly driven by cost [29]. - Ethylene glycol prices have a short - term rebound expectation, but the rebound space is limited [30]. - Short - fiber prices fluctuate with raw materials, and bottle - chip prices are mainly driven by cost [31]. Group 3: Agricultural Products - Soybean meal futures rebounded. Pay attention to the impact of La Nina on South American soybean production and wait for the Sino - US trade agreement [35]. - Soybean oil and palm oil prices are expected to oscillate in a range. Palm oil supply is increasing while demand is weak [36]. - Rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil prices are supported by supply shortages. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [37]. - Domestic soybeans rebounded strongly. Pay attention to the spot market and policy guidance [38]. - Corn futures oscillated at a high level. There are still differences in the new - season corn output. Pay attention to the sales progress of new corn in the Northeast [39]. - Live hog futures had a large increase in the far - month contract. The price may have a second bottoming next year [40]. - Egg prices: Pay attention to the spot price performance and the convergence of the basis [41]. - Cotton prices are expected to oscillate in a range. It is recommended to wait and see [42]. - Sugar prices: International supply is sufficient, and domestic production expectations are good. Pay attention to production progress [43]. - Apple prices oscillated at a high level. Pay attention to the inventory reduction situation [44]. - Wood prices oscillated. Low inventory supports prices, and it is recommended to wait and see [45]. - Pulp prices fell slightly. Supply is loose, demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [46]. Group 4: Financial Instruments - A - shares rose in a narrow range with shrinking volume. The short - term macro - liquidity uncertainty restricts the market. It is recommended to wait and see [47]. - Treasury bond futures oscillated upward. The yield curve may flatten slightly, but there may be phased adjustments [48].