Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In May, the year-on-year growth rate of broad fiscal revenue turned negative again, and the intensity of fiscal expenditure dropped significantly. The sustainability of fiscal stimulus after June needs to be observed, and it may be necessary to increase the budget to expand the deficit [1][4]. Summary by Catalog Fiscal Revenue - **General Fiscal Revenue**: In May, the year-on-year growth rate of broad fiscal revenue was -1.2%, turning negative again (April: 2.7%). From January to May, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of broad fiscal revenue was -1.3% [1][8]. - **General Public Budget Revenue**: In May 2025, the year-on-year growth rate of general public budget revenue was 0.1% (April: 1.9%), tax revenue was 0.6% (April: 1.9%), and non-tax revenue was -2.2% (April: 1.7%). Central revenue grew by 0.4% year-on-year, while local revenue decreased by 0.1% [1][10]. - **Tax Revenue Structure**: In May, tax revenue increased by 0.56% year-on-year. Among the four major taxes, domestic VAT increased by 6.1% (April: 0.9%), and personal income tax increased by 12.3% (April: 9.0%). Corporate income tax increased by only 0.02% (April: 3.97%), indicating pressure on corporate profit growth. Real estate-related taxes decreased by 8.6% year-on-year, with the decline widening [2][12]. - **Government Fund Revenue**: In May, the year-on-year growth rate of government fund revenue was -8.1% (April: 8.1%), turning negative again. Without incremental policies, it is difficult to significantly improve government fund budget revenue in the short term [2][14]. Fiscal Expenditure - **General Public Budget Expenditure**: In May, the year-on-year growth rate of general public budget expenditure was 2.6% (April: 5.8%), with the growth rate declining [3][16]. - **Government Fund Expenditure**: In May, the year-on-year growth rate of government fund expenditure was 8.8% (April: 44.7%), showing a significant decline [3][16]. - **Expenditure Structure**: In May, infrastructure-related fiscal expenditures contracted overall, with a year-on-year growth rate of -7.69% (April: 2.15%). Expenditures on social security, science and technology, and culture and tourism had relatively high growth rates [3][16]. Fiscal Deficit - As of May, the cumulative broad fiscal deficit was 3.30 trillion yuan. Assuming a nominal GDP growth rate of 4% this year, the current cumulative broad deficit ratio is 2.4%, higher than most of the same periods in the past five years and close to 2022. It is necessary to observe whether fiscal expenditure in June can maintain a high intensity [4][21]. Policy Outlook - To maintain the pace of fiscal stimulus, it may be necessary to increase the budget to expand the deficit. After the Politburo meeting on April 25, monetary policy was implemented first, but incremental fiscal policies have not been introduced. Incremental fiscal policies are expected in the second half of the year, and attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting at the end of July and policy implementation in August and September [4][22].

Core Viewpoints - The manufacturing PMI for May increased marginally to 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight recovery in manufacturing activity [2][10][52] - The new export index remains low, while domestic demand, particularly in consumer goods and equipment manufacturing, shows significant improvement [2][21] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI shows overall improvement, with production and new order indices rising by 0.9 and 0.6 percentage points to 50.7% and 49.8%, respectively [2][52] - The production index has recovered above the expansion threshold, while the new order index remains in contraction territory, indicating faster production but weaker demand [2][10] - Industries with high domestic demand, such as equipment manufacturing and consumer goods, have seen PMIs rise by 1.6 and 0.8 percentage points to 51.2% and 50.2% [2][21] - Conversely, export-dependent sectors like textiles and chemicals have underperformed, with production and new order indices below the critical point [2][21] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing PMI decreased slightly to 50.3%, with the construction sector experiencing a notable decline due to weak real estate performance [2][67] - The construction PMI fell by 0.9 percentage points to 51%, while civil engineering activities are accelerating, as indicated by a PMI of 62.3% [29][67] - Service sector PMI saw a marginal increase to 50.2%, driven by improved activity in tourism and dining during the holiday period [40][67] Future Outlook - Uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariff policies remain significant, necessitating close monitoring of fiscal policies' impact on domestic demand [45] - The recent court ruling against Trump's tariffs has created a temporary freeze on tariff enforcement, adding to the external uncertainties [45] - Service consumption and infrastructure investment are expected to be key areas for fiscal support, potentially enhancing domestic demand [45]

Core Viewpoints - The manufacturing PMI for May increased marginally to 49.5%, indicating a slight recovery in manufacturing activity, although it remains below the expansion threshold of 50 [2][10] - The new export index is low, but domestic demand, particularly in consumer goods and equipment manufacturing, shows significant improvement [2][21] - The service sector PMI also saw a slight increase, driven by improvements in life services, particularly during the "May Day" holiday [40][67] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI rose by 0.5 percentage points to 49.5%, with production and new orders indices increasing by 0.9 and 0.6 percentage points to 50.7% and 49.8%, respectively [2][52] - The production index has recovered above the expansion line, while the new orders index remains in contraction territory, indicating a disparity between production acceleration and weak demand [2][10] - Industries with strong domestic demand, such as equipment manufacturing and consumer goods, showed better performance, with PMIs rising by 1.6 and 0.8 percentage points to 51.2% and 50.2% [21][24] New Orders and Exports - The internal demand orders index rose above the expansion line to 50.1%, while the new export orders index increased by 2.8 percentage points to 47.5%, indicating a divergence in recovery between domestic and export orders [3][24] - The average value of new export orders over April and May remains lower than in March, suggesting ongoing pressure on exports [3][24] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing PMI decreased slightly to 50.3%, primarily due to a decline in the construction sector, which fell by 0.9 percentage points to 51% [67][29] - Despite the decline in construction, civil engineering activities are accelerating, with the civil engineering PMI rising to 62.3% [29][84] - The service sector PMI increased by 0.1 percentage points to 50.2%, supported by active consumer spending during the holiday period [40][67] Future Outlook - Uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariff policies remain significant, with ongoing monitoring of fiscal policies' support for domestic demand [45][45] - The focus will be on the potential for fiscal measures to bolster service consumption and infrastructure investment, which are expected to enhance domestic demand support [45][45]

Group 1 - The core feature of the 2025 fiscal policy is the significant front-loading of fiscal debt financing, which has positively impacted expenditure performance. From January to April, the broad fiscal expenditure growth rate reached 7.2%, with a spending progress of 28.4%, exceeding the five-year average of 28.2% [2][8][72] - The broad fiscal expenditure growth is primarily supported by the rapid issuance of government debt, particularly treasury bonds. From January to April, the net financing of government debt was 4.8 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.6 trillion yuan year-on-year, becoming the core support for broad fiscal expenditure [3][21][73] - The fiscal policy for 2025 is more proactive, with a planned net financing scale of 13.86 trillion yuan for government debt. As of the end of May, 6.3 trillion yuan has been net financed, leaving 7.5 trillion yuan to be issued [4][32][74] Group 2 - The growth in broad fiscal expenditure is not due to improved revenue, as the cumulative fiscal revenue from January to April showed a year-on-year decline of 1.3%, falling short of the budget target by 1.5 percentage points, mainly due to declines in tax and land transfer revenues [2][14][72] - The government is expected to maintain a high level of net financing for government debt until the end of September, with the second quarter's net financing expected to increase by 2.3 trillion yuan year-on-year, and the third quarter maintaining a historically high level of 3.8 trillion yuan [4][35][74] - To smooth out economic fluctuations in the second half of the year, the government may introduce incremental policies to stabilize broad fiscal expenditure growth, especially given the uncertainties in economic recovery [5][37][74] Group 3 - Various policies are available to mitigate fluctuations in the second half of the year, including flexible budgetary tools and policy financial instruments that can be deployed quickly. The effectiveness of these tools has been validated in practice since 2022 [6][39][74] - The focus of incremental funding will be on service consumption, fertility policies, and infrastructure investment, with an emphasis on reducing burdens and increasing income for residents to stimulate consumption [7][50][74] - The government is likely to consider additional funding if fiscal revenue falls short of budget targets, which could impact the support of fiscal expenditure for nominal GDP [7][44][74]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the resilience of China's economy in April, driven by coordinated macro policies that have led to stable and rapid growth in key economic indicators [1] - Fixed asset investment in China from January to April increased by 4.0% year-on-year, with equipment investment growing at a remarkable rate of 18.2% and manufacturing investment maintaining a high growth rate of 8.8% [1] - The "old for new" policy has effectively connected the investment, production, and consumption sectors, resulting in significant consumer spending and economic activity [3] Group 2 - In the first quarter, the revenue growth rate of industrial enterprises was 3.4%, with new productivity sectors like automotive manufacturing and electrical machinery contributing nearly 30% to this growth [2] - The fixed asset investment growth rate for new productivity themes has rebounded to 15.5%, significantly outpacing traditional manufacturing investment growth by nearly 6 percentage points [2] - The "old for new" policy led to the replacement of 49.416 million consumer goods, generating related consumption of 720 billion yuan, marking a significant boost in retail sales [3] Group 3 - Future projections indicate that China's economy is expected to maintain stable growth, supported by incremental fiscal policies and a supportive monetary policy that provides ample liquidity to the real economy [4] - Strategic emerging industries are anticipated to continue their rapid growth, becoming a crucial driver of economic expansion [4] - The impact of U.S.-China tariff tensions on exports is expected to weaken, aided by manufacturing expansion overseas and the deepening of the Belt and Road Initiative [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent financial policy package introduced by the central bank, financial regulatory authority, and securities commission aims to stabilize the market and boost expectations, with measures including interest rate cuts and structural monetary policy tools [1][2][3]. Monetary Policy Measures - The central bank announced three categories of ten monetary policy measures, maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy stance and reinforcing counter-cyclical adjustments to support the real economy [2][3]. - The policy includes a 50 basis point cut in the reserve requirement ratio and a 10 basis point reduction in the policy interest rate, which exceeded market expectations [6]. Regulatory Policies - The financial regulatory authority introduced eight incremental policies covering various sectors such as real estate, capital markets, small and private enterprises, foreign trade, and technological innovation [3][4]. - The securities commission emphasized measures to consolidate market recovery, support the role of stabilizing funds, and promote the development of technology innovation bonds [3][4]. Market Reactions - Public funds generally view the meeting as a positive signal, effectively boosting market sentiment [1][3]. - Analysts noted that the coordinated efforts of multiple departments signal a strong commitment to stabilizing the market and enhancing investor confidence [4][5]. Future Outlook - The policies are expected to have a long-term impact on market structure, industry allocation, and risk appetite, with a focus on sectors like technology, high-end manufacturing, and consumer goods [5][9]. - The market is anticipated to experience fluctuations as it rebounds to previous highs, but the combination of policy support and market resilience is expected to enhance mid-term performance [7][10]. Investment Focus - Analysts suggest focusing on sectors benefiting from domestic demand policies, including finance, real estate, and consumer sectors, as well as innovation-driven industries like robotics and technology [9][11]. - The financial sector, particularly banks and insurance, is expected to benefit directly from improved liquidity conditions, while undervalued sectors like real estate and infrastructure may also see price increases due to policy support [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The chief economist of China Merchants Fund, Li Zhan, indicates that the incremental fiscal policy space is expected to open up in the third quarter, following a series of macroeconomic policies aimed at stabilizing the market and economy after the Politburo meeting in April [1] Group 1 - The recent press conference by the State Council Information Office marks the beginning of a series of macroeconomic policies to stabilize the market and economy [1] - The initial market reaction to the press conference was focused on the unexpected "double cut" by the central bank [1] - Li Zhan emphasizes that the true stability of the economy and market relies on the coordination of monetary and fiscal policies, especially in light of the emerging tariff impacts [1] Group 2 - It is anticipated that a comprehensive financial policy package will continue to be implemented in the second quarter [1] - The opening of incremental fiscal space in the third quarter is expected to follow the ongoing implementation of these financial policies [1]

Policy Insights - The recent financial policy package is substantial and contains many unexpected details, indicating a shift in market trading expectations towards the implementation of incremental fiscal policies[2] - The People's Bank of China announced a comprehensive 0.5% reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity to the market[12] Market Reactions - A-shares are likely to enter a strong oscillating trend, supported by the government's commitment to stabilize the capital market amid easing US-China trade tensions[13] - The bond yield curve is expected to steepen initially before flattening, with limited upward movement in long-term rates due to ongoing uncertainties in US-China negotiations[13] Economic Indicators - The April manufacturing PMI orders index fell by 4.3 percentage points to 44.7%, prompting timely policy responses to counteract weakening export indicators[4] - The market anticipates further clues from the release of April's major economic indicators throughout May, which may influence future policy directions[2] Interest Rate Adjustments - The policy interest rate was lowered by 10 basis points to 1.4%, signaling a strong intent to guide the overall yield curve downward[9] - Structural monetary policy tools saw a more significant reduction of 25 basis points, with specific rates for agricultural and small business loans adjusted to 1.5%[9] Risk Considerations - There is a risk that the implementation of re-lending policies may not meet expectations, potentially leading to unexpected tightening of liquidity in the market[14]

投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 缩量确认关键支撑 等待放量反弹机会 ——股指周报2025.04.28 客服中心 ：李卫红 联系方式：0371-68599157 电子邮箱：liwh_qh@ccnew.com 投资咨询编号：Z0017812 | 本期观点 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险提示 | | 股指 | 1、中信建投研究，此次政治局会议并未涉及到调整预算、出台大规模增量刺激政策的 | IC/IM 的组合套 | 1）外部市场环境； 2）地缘政治因素； 3）宏观政策调整。 | | | 表述，强调既定政策"加紧实施"、"用足用好"，符合预期。主因当前既定政策还有大幅 | | | | | 空间未用，没有必要安排增量政策。下半年预计仍有增量财政政策，中央对外部冲击已 | | | | | 有充分估计，明确"要强化底线思维，充分备足预案"，"根据形势变化及时推出增量储备 | | | | | 政策"。出台的时间节点我们预计在三季度中后期，一是彼时当前财政空间或已充分使 | | | | | 用，二则往年也有参考经验。消费领域，提出 ...