Group 1 - The core conclusion indicates that the buying power of institutional funds is expected to strengthen, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving an "eight consecutive days of gains" and market trading volume recovering [2][8] - Positive factors catalyzing the year-end market rally include the rebound of US tech stocks, appreciation of the RMB, rising prices of non-ferrous metals (gold, silver, copper), and various themes in commercial aerospace [2][8] - The report emphasizes that the key factor driving the index to break through the upper range of the consolidation zone is the influx of incremental funds, particularly the gradual increase in institutional buying power [2][8] Group 2 - The appreciation of the RMB is beneficial for the return of overseas funds, with the RMB appreciating nearly 4% against the USD in 2025, and the offshore RMB/USD exchange rate breaking the "7" mark [9] - The report notes that the recent acceleration of inflows into stock ETFs indicates a significant increase in the net inflow scale of ETFs related to the CSI A500, suggesting that institutional funds are accelerating their layout [12][14] - The private equity fund management scale increased significantly by 1.04 trillion RMB in October 2025, reaching 7.0076 trillion RMB, and continued to rise to 7.0383 trillion RMB in November, indicating a potential important source of incremental funds for the market [14][15] Group 3 - The report highlights that there are currently no signs of accelerated inflows from resident incremental funds, but there is optimism for a seasonal surge in Q1, particularly in years when the Spring Festival is later [17][25] - The report suggests that the tactical foundation of the bull market remains solid, with the potential for a resonance between profit improvement and fund inflows [30][31] - The report recommends increasing allocations to value sectors and suggests that the technology sector typically shows significant excess returns during the spring market [36][37]

- The report discusses the construction and evaluation of various quantitative models and factors, including the Cinda-VIX and Cinda-SKEW indices, which are designed to reflect market volatility and skewness, respectively[6][61][62] - The Cinda-VIX index reflects the expected future volatility of the underlying asset as implied by option prices. It has a term structure that shows the expected volatility over different time horizons. As of December 26, 2025, the 30-day Cinda-VIX values for the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices were 16.35, 17.09, 24.97, and 20.60, respectively[62][63][64] - The Cinda-SKEW index captures the skewness in the implied volatility of options with different strike prices. It measures the market's perception of tail risk. As of December 26, 2025, the SKEW values for the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices were 99.83, 100.24, 103.00, and 102.52, respectively[70][71][76] - The report also includes backtesting results for various hedging strategies using stock index futures. The strategies include continuous hedging and minimum discount hedging, applied to the CSI 500, CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 1000 indices. The backtesting period is from July 22, 2022, to December 26, 2025[43][44][45] - For the CSI 500 index futures hedging strategy, the annualized returns for the continuous monthly, continuous quarterly, and minimum discount strategies were -3.47%, -2.70%, and -1.99%, respectively. The corresponding volatilities were 3.78%, 4.68%, and 4.48%, and the maximum drawdowns were -11.51%, -9.16%, and -8.93%[46][47][49] - For the CSI 300 index futures hedging strategy, the annualized returns for the continuous monthly, continuous quarterly, and minimum discount strategies were 0.26%, 0.59%, and 0.99%, respectively. The corresponding volatilities were 2.88%, 3.23%, and 3.00%, and the maximum drawdowns were -3.95%, -4.03%, and -4.06%[48][50][52] - For the SSE 50 index futures hedging strategy, the annualized returns for the continuous monthly, continuous quarterly, and minimum discount strategies were 1.02%, 1.93%, and 1.55%, respectively. The corresponding volatilities were 2.95%, 3.35%, and 2.97%, and the maximum drawdowns were -4.22%, -3.76%, and -3.91%[53][54][56] - For the CSI 1000 index futures hedging strategy, the annualized returns for the continuous monthly, continuous quarterly, and minimum discount strategies were -6.53%, -4.91%, and -4.47%, respectively. The corresponding volatilities were 4.73%, 5.74%, and 5.49%, and the maximum drawdowns were -14.01%, -12.63%, and -11.11%[57][58][60]

一是以黄金股、铜业股为代表的资源主线在国际金价、国际银价相继创出历史新高的刺激下走出了高开 走高的态势。二是以保险股为代表的非银板块也同步走高。三是商业航天板块、储能板块等叙事主线形 成了领涨态势。 但是，在周五午市收盘前，上证综指等主要股指突然跳水，且商业航天板块、保险股等非银主线均出现 了一定程度的同步杀跌态势。这可能是因为两个因素，一是大行纷纷买入美元，对冲人民币升值的动 能，从而使得人民币汇率在周五盘中有所疲软。二是关于A500ETF近期持续放量引起相关各方关注的小 作文，使得部分敏感的交易型资金持股心态渐趋不稳，他们纷纷抛售近期涨幅可观的热门品种，如非银 板块、商业航天板块、储能板块、资源主线等品种。 周五A股市场出现了震荡中重心上移的态势。其中，上证综指已八连阳，彰显出多头强劲的做多意志。 不过，在午市前，上证综指、深证成指等主要股指均有一波短暂的"跳水"动作。但在午市后迅速收复， 成交金额也随之放大，沪深两市成交金额重返2万亿元，显示出场外资金利用此次盘中调整迅捷加仓， 从而意味着短线A股的做多能量进一步增强，有利于后续行情的演绎。 高风险偏好增量资金入场 在周五早盘，A股市场出现了"集体积极做 ...

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 基金投顾，顾名思义，就是基金的投资顾问。 很多行业都有顾问，特别是一些专业性很强的行业。 例如， 基金投资也是如此。 基金投顾的诞生，正是为了解决基金行业存在的"基金赚钱，基民不赚钱"的问题。 那么，基金投顾有哪些优势？ 是如何通过"投"和"顾"，帮助投资者获得好收益的呢？ 这里有一门限时免费的福利课程，介绍了基金投顾的方方面面。 想要获取这个课程，可以添加下方「课程小助手」，回复「 基金投顾 」领取哦～ 更有课程笔记、思维导图，帮您快速搞懂课程脉络，学习更高效。 • 看病吃药，需要医生，医生就是顾问； • 有法律问题，需要律师，律师也是顾问。 基金投顾是什么? 者什么值用? 一长按添加@课程小助手,回复「基金投顾」 免费领取《螺丝钉基金投顾入门课》课程 更有课程笔记、思维导图,帮你快速了解基金投顾 基金有风险,投资需谨慎 #螺丝钉小知识 //////// 银行螺丝钉 通常来说,我们手里的钱,可以分为两 部分:存量资金、增量资金。 (1) 存量资金 如果是长期不用的闲钱，通常用「100- 年龄」 来分配股票和债券的比例。 比如40岁： 存量+增量，资产配置这样做 ·（1 ...

昨天下午昏昏沉沉的盘面中，券商股拔地而起，板块涨幅达到2.31%，着实让人兴奋，这是该板块2个 多月以来的最大涨幅。 但是看了一下年线，券商板块今年也就涨3.48%，大幅跑输各种指数。甚至连2024年11月的高点都没有 超越，长期辜负了牛市旗手的称号，名副其实的渣男。 渣男板块今年的主升段主要是6月到8月这2个月，也是市场成交量不断攀升的一段时期。所以券商的反 弹能否有持续性，还得看成交量能否温和回升。我觉得这个持续性大概率是成立的。 券商行业还有一个利好是，今天在证券业协会第八次会员大会上，证监会主席吴清表示，要适度拓宽券 商资本空间与杠杆上限，从价格竞争转向价值竞争。翻译成大白话就是，不要打价格战了，要反内卷， 多做一些更有意义的事情，同时还给加杠杆。 看了一些大盘券商股，发现今年以来股东人数是普遍下降的，券商ETF的规模是不断增加的，也有可能 目前在酝酿一次中级行情。 周末非银这块，除了保险和券商，基金也有新政出来。《基金管理公司绩效考核管理指引》征求意见稿 已经下发，总的来说主要有这么几个方面：基金业绩和基金经理的薪酬直接挂钩了，业绩不佳绩效薪酬 将明显下降；强制跟投，基金经理须用不低于40%绩效工资 ...

中泰证券非银金融首席分析师葛玉翔对记者分析，2025年三季度末，保险资金投资股票期末余额为3.62 万亿元。假设其中沪深300和中证红利低波动100成分股、科创板股票投资占比分别为40%、5%，同时 符合《通知》要求的加权平均持仓时间标的为20%。据此测算，考虑风险分散效应前静态释放最低资本 为326亿元。若这部分资金全部增配沪深300股票，对应股市资金（除以风险因子0.3）为1086亿元。若 不增配股票，则改善行业偿付能力充足率幅度约1个百分点。此外，《通知》还将保险公司出口信用保 险业务和中国出口信用保险公司海外投资保险业务的保费风险因子从0.467下调至0.42，准备金风险因子 从0.605下调至0.545。龙格认为，这将引导保险公司加大对外贸企业支持力度、有效服务国家战略。 （上证报） ...

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index has reached 4000 points this year, but the actual increase is limited when excluding the major banks and a few tech stocks, suggesting that many weighted industries are still around 3000 points [1] - If major stocks do not experience a rebound, the longer the time passes, the more unfavorable it will be for the index, indicating that the current bull market may have peaked at 4000 points [1] - The market is characterized by a localized bull market rather than a comprehensive one, with many stocks not performing well, and significant declines in tech assets occurring twice this year [3] Group 2 - There is a lack of significant profit effects in the market, with no noticeable increase in new account openings or discussions about the stock market, indicating a disconnect between the index performance and investor sentiment [5] - The trading volume has dropped significantly, with the market operating at bear market levels, and core weighted industries like liquor, securities, insurance, and banks showing low daily trading volumes [5] - The market requires incremental capital to drive growth, which can only come from rebounds in sectors like securities and real estate, similar to the market behavior seen in September 2024 [5][7]

ETF进化论 最猛增量资金新动向！ 原创 阅读全文 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve may initiate a "fiscal + monetary" dual easing mode, which is expected to enhance market liquidity [1] - The A-share market has shown a strong upward trend, successfully surpassing the 4000-point mark, with private equity management scale and financing balance continuously increasing [1] - In October, the newly established equity public funds decreased to 54.823 billion shares, down 42.384 billion shares from the previous month, marking a significant drop [1] Group 2 - The scale of private securities funds reached 5.97 trillion yuan in September, showing an increase compared to August [2] - The average position of private equity long positions rose to 66.22% in September, up 2.40 percentage points from August, indicating a higher investment level [2] - The monthly average trading volume of northbound funds decreased to 258.308 billion yuan in October, down 16.80% from the previous month [2] Group 3 - The number of new accounts opened on the Shanghai Stock Exchange showed signs of cooling in October, with institutional accounts increasing by 10.48% year-on-year, while individual accounts dropped by 66.34% [3] - Insurance companies' premium income growth has weakened, with a net increase of 261.914 billion yuan in equity assets held by property and life insurance by Q2 2025 [3] - The number of issued wealth management products decreased by 27.98% in October, indicating a decline in market activity [3] Group 4 - In October, the net reduction in industrial capital narrowed to 30.529 billion yuan, with a daily average net reduction of 1.796 billion yuan [4] - The trading pulse of the three main funding flow indicators significantly decreased, indicating a cooling in market trading activity [4]

Core Viewpoint - The active equity fund market has seen a significant increase in new fund issuance this year, with a doubling of the issuance scale compared to the previous year, indicating a strong recovery in the A-share market and a shift of household savings into capital markets [1][6]. Fund Issuance Trends - As of November 10, the number of new funds issued this year reached 1,354, the highest in nearly three years, with a total issuance scale of 1.02 trillion yuan, up over 6% from the same period last year [4][5]. - The issuance scale of active equity funds reached approximately 1389.72 billion yuan, compared to only 567.8 billion yuan in the same period last year, marking a year-on-year doubling [5]. Popularity of New Funds - Several new funds have sold out on the first day of issuance, indicating strong demand. For example, the 富国兴和混合 fund raised about 30 billion yuan in a single day [4]. - Notable funds that have also seen rapid sales include 鹏华启航量化选股混合 and 中欧价值领航混合, both achieving significant fundraising within a short period [4]. Future Outlook - Industry experts predict that the sales of active equity funds will continue to recover, providing a steady influx of capital into the A-share market, which could create a positive feedback loop [1][6]. - However, there are concerns that if the market experiences a downturn, fund issuance may cool off, leading to a potential shift of funds back to high-performing existing funds [1][6].