Report Overview - **Report Name**: Shanjin Futures Crude Oil Daily Report - **Update Time**: July 18, 2025, 08:15 1. Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - OPEC+ is likely to increase production, and high - frequency data is gradually confirming this. The medium - to long - term outlook for crude oil is bearish, but geopolitical factors may still have a pulsed impact, though less intense than before. The focus of crude oil trading may return to supply and demand [2]. - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain, with the possibility of renewed conflict between Israel and Iran. However, the impact on oil prices may be limited if the expectation of blocked shipping lanes does not return [2]. - The "Big and Beautiful" bill signed by Trump may have a gradual and spill - over impact on the market. The implementation of high tariffs may lead to bearish macro - side expectations, higher inflation in the US, and make it difficult for the Fed to cut interest rates [2]. 3. Summary by Content 3.1 Market Data - **Crude Oil Futures**: On July 1, Sc was at 499.40 yuan/barrel, up 2.70 yuan (0.54%) from the previous day and down 19.20 yuan (-3.70%) from the previous week. WTI was at 65.53 dollars/barrel, up 0.56 dollars (0.86%) from the previous day and up 0.52 dollars (0.80%) from the previous week. Brent was at 67.28 dollars/barrel, up 0.65 dollars (0.98%) from the previous day and down 0.54 dollars (-0.80%) from the previous week [2]. - **Spreads**: Sc - WTI was at 4.28 dollars/barrel, down 0.13 dollars (-2.99%) from the previous day and down 3.08 dollars (-41.84%) from the previous week. Sc - Brent was at 2.53 dollars/barrel, down 0.22 dollars (-8.06%) from the previous day and down 2.02 dollars (-44.37%) from the previous week [2]. - **Spot Prices**: OPEC's basket of crude oil was at 68.35 dollars/barrel, up 0.36 dollars (0.53%) from the previous week. Brent DTD was at 68.17 dollars/barrel, down 1.05 dollars (-1.52%) from the previous week. Oman was at 69.20 dollars/barrel, up 1.40 dollars (2.06%) from the previous week. Dubai was at 68.75 dollars/barrel, up 0.95 dollars (1.40%) from the previous week [2]. - **Product Spot Prices**: Diesel in East China was at 7036.45 yuan/ton, down 56.27 yuan (-0.79%) from the previous day and down 380.55 yuan (-5.13%) from the previous week. Gasoline in East China was at 8078.18 yuan/ton, down 66.18 yuan (-0.81%) from the previous day and down 384.27 yuan (-4.54%) from the previous week [2]. - **Inventory Data**: Sc warehouse receipts were at 591.10 million barrels, up 188.20 million barrels (46.71%) from the previous week. US strategic petroleum reserves were at 402.53 million barrels, up 0.24 million barrels (0.06%) from the previous week. US commercial crude oil was at 415.11 million barrels, down 5.84 million barrels (-1.39%) from the previous week [2]. 3.2 Geopolitical and Policy News - E3 foreign ministers and the EU High Representative called on Iran to return to diplomatic channels to reach a verifiable and lasting nuclear agreement by the end of summer, or face renewed UN sanctions [3]. - A US assessment found that only one of the three Iranian nuclear facilities attacked last month was largely destroyed, and Trump rejected a more comprehensive military strike plan against Iran's nuclear program [3]. - Angola plans to increase its oil exports to 1.03 million barrels per day in September [3]. 3.3 Macroeconomic News - In May 2025, Japan and the UK increased their holdings of US Treasury bonds, while China continued to reduce its holdings. Japan's holdings were 1.135 trillion dollars, the UK's were 0.8094 trillion dollars, and China's were 0.7563 trillion dollars [4]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 97.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 2.6%. In September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 46.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 51.7% [4]. - Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts. Some believe rates should remain unchanged due to tariff - induced inflation pressure, while others support a 25 - basis - point cut [4][5][6]. 3.4 Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations - In the medium term, the market is in a neutral oscillation pattern, with support and resistance levels around 65 and 68.3 dollars/barrel respectively. Short - term attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the 66.5 dollars/barrel resistance level for US crude oil [2]. - The trading strategy is to sell on rallies, choose the right timing, or use out - of - the - money put options to avoid short - term bullish shocks [2]

Group 1 - The report maintains a tactical asset allocation view, recommending an overweight in Hong Kong stocks, a neutral position in gold and RMB, and an underweight in Japanese stocks and US Treasuries [1][13][15] - Global market risk appetite has been recovering, driven by easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, marginal improvements in US-China relations, and resilient macroeconomic conditions in the US [1][11][12] - The announcement of new tariffs by Trump may temporarily impact market risk appetite, but the overall market is expected to adjust back to the previous recovery trend after a brief shock [1][11][12] Group 2 - The "Big and Beautiful" plan is expected to significantly increase federal fiscal deficits, which may lead to upward pressure on US Treasury yields [1][12] - The report expresses optimism about Hong Kong stocks due to improving liquidity and risk appetite, while being cautious about Japanese stocks facing inflationary pressures [1][13][14] - The report highlights the potential for gold to serve as a hedge against risks, despite short-term pressure from improved market risk appetite [1][14][15] Group 3 - The tactical asset allocation strategy includes a focus on sectors with strong growth potential, particularly in technology and emerging industries within Hong Kong [1][14] - The report indicates that the US economy's resilience may support a higher yield environment for US Treasuries, with a cautious outlook on their performance [1][13][14] - The report anticipates that the RMB will remain stable due to the strong growth momentum of the Chinese economy compared to other major economies [1][15]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the document regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestic export and financial data are better than expected, boosting the sentiment of the domestic market. However, short - term external risks need to be noted. The domestic risk preference continues to rise, and the short - term optimistic sentiment persists [2][3]. - The short - term trends of various assets are as follows: The stock index fluctuates strongly in the short term; treasury bonds fluctuate at a high level; among commodity sectors, black metals rebound from a low level, non - ferrous metals fluctuate, energy and chemicals fluctuate, and precious metals fluctuate at a high level [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas: The US president's announcement of more tariff letters leads the EU to take counter - measures, and the market takes a wait - and - see attitude. Fed officials indicate no urgent need for interest rate cuts, and the US dollar index rebounds in the short term [2]. - Domestic: China's June PMI data continues to rise, and export and financial data in June are better than expected, with economic growth accelerating. Policy emphasizes "anti - involution" and "stabilizing employment", which helps boost domestic risk preference in the short term [2]. Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as energy metals, metals, and home appliances, the domestic stock market rises slightly. The short - term macro - upward drive weakens, and attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. Precious Metals - Gold prices fluctuate due to policy expectations and避险情绪. Silver shows a strong upward trend, and the gold - silver ratio is significantly repaired. In the long - term, the support logic for precious metals remains solid [3][4]. Black Metals Steel - The steel futures and spot prices continue to rebound. Although the export in the first half of the year is good, the demand weakens in reality, and the supply decreases due to the implementation of production - restriction policies. The cost support is strong, and the short - term steel market is still treated with a rebound mindset [5]. Iron Ore - The futures and spot prices of iron ore continue to rebound. The fundamentals of iron ore weaken marginally, and the implementation of production - restriction policies needs further attention. The short - term macro - logic dominates, and the price fluctuates strongly [5]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese remain flat, and the futures prices rebound slightly. The demand for ferroalloys decreases, and the short - term prices may follow the rebound of coal prices [6][7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - The concern about tariffs resurfaces. The future trend of copper prices depends on the time when tariffs are implemented. If implemented before August 1, copper prices will continue to weaken; otherwise, the price may be supported [11]. Aluminum - The price of Shanghai aluminum drops significantly. In addition to tariff concerns, the significant increase in social inventory is also an important factor [11]. Aluminum Alloy - The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand is weak. Considering cost support, the short - term price will fluctuate strongly, but the upward space is limited [11]. Tin - The supply increases slightly, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the upward space will be suppressed in the medium term [12]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate rises significantly. The production increases, and the inventory accumulates. Affected by the "anti - involution" policy, it is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [13]. Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon rises. The production increases, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly due to the "anti - involution" policy [14]. Polysilicon - The price of polysilicon rises. The supply is stable at a low level, and the downstream prices change. Affected by policy news, it is expected to be strong in the short term [15]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The concern about tariffs continues, and the demand worry puts pressure on oil prices. However, the short - term tightness in the spot market supports the price [16][17]. Asphalt - The price of asphalt fluctuates. The shipment volume decreases, the factory inventory starts to accumulate, and the demand in the peak season is average [17]. PX - The price of PX is expected to fluctuate weakly. The upstream profit is greatly reduced, and the downstream demand may weaken [17]. PTA - The PTA market shows a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand. The price has limited upward space in the short term and may decline [18]. Ethylene Glycol - The supply of ethylene glycol returns significantly, and the demand slows down. It will continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term [18]. Short - fiber - The price of short - fiber follows the polyester sector and fluctuates weakly. The terminal orders are average, and the inventory is high [18][19]. Methanol - The fundamental situation of methanol deteriorates, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate, while the 01 contract can be considered for long positions [19]. PP - The supply pressure of PP increases, and the demand is weak in the off - season. The price center is expected to move down [19]. LLDPE - The demand for LLDPE is in the off - season, and the inventory increases. The short - term price may rebound slightly, but the long - term price center may move down [19]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - The export inspection volume of US soybeans is lower than expected, and the压榨 volume is expected to decline. The future of Sino - US soybean trade relations will directly affect US soybeans [20]. Soybean Meal/Rapeseed Meal - US soybeans are under pressure, and the risk of downward pressure on soybean meal and rapeseed meal increases. The consumption of rapeseed meal in the peak season is far from expected, and the inventory is slow to decline [21][22]. Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil - The supply and demand of soybean oil are loose, and the price difference is weak. The inventory of rapeseed oil is slow to decline, and the policy premium support weakens [23]. Palm Oil - The inventory of palm oil is repaired, and the price is under downward pressure in the short term. However, the export demand may be supported [24]. Corn - Affected by factors such as the substitution of new wheat and the auction of imported corn, the corn market is under pressure. However, there is still a risk of rebound after the over - decline [25]. Live Pigs - The supply of live pigs increases, and the pig price is under pressure at a high level. The futures price may decline slightly in the short term [25].

Group 1 - The "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill signed by President Trump on July 4 includes key elements such as tax cuts, immigration policy, healthcare reform, defense spending, and adjustments to green energy [2][4] - The bill represents a significant political victory for Trump in his second term and indicates profound changes in U.S. economic and social policy [2][4] - The legislation aims to weaken the Senate's checks and balances through procedural breakthroughs, pushing for global financial regulatory upgrades and promoting local currency settlements among BRICS nations to address structural challenges posed by U.S. policies [2][4] Group 2 - The bill continues the "America First" ideology, restructuring tax, welfare, and energy policies to reshape the U.S. social structure through a redistribution mechanism that benefits the top 1% while transferring fiscal pressure to state and local governments [4][8] - The tax policy aspect of the bill makes the corporate tax rate reduction from 35% to 21% permanent, with a projected increase in the deficit of $3.4 trillion over ten years, rising to $4.1 trillion with interest [4][8] - The welfare system adjustments include a significant cut to Medicaid funding exceeding $900 billion from 2025 to 2034 and the introduction of a "work for welfare" requirement, potentially affecting over 10 million low-income individuals [4][8] Group 3 - The energy policy shift undermines the Biden administration's climate agenda by gradually eliminating clean energy tax credits, leading to a potential reduction in electric vehicle sales by 40% by 2030 [5][11] - The bill's passage through the budget reconciliation process allowed Republicans to bypass traditional legislative hurdles, raising concerns about the erosion of bipartisan cooperation and the integrity of U.S. democracy [5][11] - The legislation is expected to exacerbate social divides, with the top 10% of income earners projected to receive an additional $3.1 trillion in tax cuts over the next decade, while the bottom 10% may face increased tax burdens [8][10] Group 4 - The bill is anticipated to increase the federal deficit by $3.4 trillion and raise the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, leading to potential long-term economic risks such as higher interest rates and inflation [10] - The U.S. dollar's dominance is facing systemic challenges, with a notable increase in the 30-year Treasury yield and a decline in the dollar index, prompting countries like Saudi Arabia and Brazil to initiate local currency trade settlements [10][11] - The manufacturing sector may see a mixed impact, with high-value industries like semiconductors benefiting from tax incentives, while low-value sectors struggle due to high operational costs in the U.S. [11]

Core Viewpoint - The current A-share market is experiencing a shift from a stock market dominated by existing shares to one driven by new capital inflows, with a potential for structural opportunities despite short-term consolidation needs [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends and Strategies - The "623" market rally is distinct from last year's "924" rally, as the A-share market valuation has risen from the bottom to above the historical median, indicating that further index gains require volume support [1][3]. - The strategy outlook suggests a high probability of a market trend similar to the comprehensive bull market of the second half of 2014, driven by low interest rates and potential increases in resident capital inflows [2][4]. - The current 10-year government bond yield is approximately half of what it was in 2014, with a significant decline over the past two years, indicating a favorable environment for market growth [4]. Group 2: Sector Performance and Opportunities - Sectors expected to perform well in the upcoming earnings season include high-growth TMT areas such as semiconductors, software development, and gaming, as well as midstream industries with global competitive advantages like automotive parts and defense [2][3]. - The ongoing domestic demand expansion policies are likely to benefit sectors such as home appliances, beauty care, and agriculture, while other sectors like precious metals and pharmaceuticals are also anticipated to show performance improvements [2][3]. - The market is expected to see better stock performance in July and August for industries with strong mid-year earnings reports, particularly in consumer sectors and technology [3][5].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a significant turnover at the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), with at least eight core members leaving in the past six months, indicating a shift from the Trump administration's influence [1][3] - The article notes that in addition to the eight core members, at least seven engineers have also departed, many of whom held high-level access across multiple agencies, with three more engineers preparing to leave [3] - A White House spokesperson claimed that DOGE is making progress, having saved over $170 billion for Americans, while senior officials explained that many departures were from "political appointees" with term-limited positions [3] Group 2 - The article describes changes in security protocols at DOGE headquarters, including the removal of armed guard checks and access signs, reflecting a transformation in the department's operational environment [3] - Following the departure of Elon Musk from DOGE, the department's focus has shifted to more targeted actions, such as eliminating unused government websites and assisting the National Weather Service in system upgrades [3] - The relationship between Musk and Trump has been tumultuous, with Musk criticizing the "Big and Beautiful" bill, which he believes undermines his cost-cutting policies during his tenure at DOGE, while Trump accused Musk of being emotional over the loss of electric vehicle tax incentives [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second half of 2025, the monetary policy will remain "moderately loose," with 1 - 2 times of RRR cuts and interest rate cuts possible, likely in September - October. The policy will focus on raising price levels, boosting domestic demand, strengthening cooperation with fiscal policy, and intensifying the use of structural tools such as relending. There is also a possibility of restarting treasury bond trading [4][32]. - The issuance of interest - rate bonds in the second half of the year may exceed 14 trillion yuan. The supply pressure will be high in the third quarter, and there may be an additional issuance of government bonds in the fourth quarter. The core trading range of the 10 - year treasury bond yield is expected to be 1.4% - 1.7% [4][36]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Monetary Policy and Liquidity Monitoring - **Implementation of a Package of Monetary Policy Measures with a Continuously "Moderately Loose" Tone**: The monetary policy framework has been continuously adjusted, with the policy - rate attribute of MLF fading out. The 7 - day reverse repurchase rate has become the core policy rate. The policy tone remains "moderately loose," with RRR cuts and interest rate cuts implemented again, and structural tools continuously exerting their effects. Open - market operations have been marginally relaxed, and more attention has been paid to asset prices [6][7][9]. - **Quarterly Decline in the Central Level of Capital Interest Rates**: In the first quarter, due to the central bank's emphasis on preventing capital idling, the capital market was relatively tight. In the second quarter, after the implementation of RRR cuts and interest rate cuts and the marginal easing of the central bank's attitude, the capital interest rates declined. The spread between DR007 and R007 remained at a low level [13]. 3.2 Operating Characteristics of the Interest - Rate Bond Market - **Year - on - Year Increase in the Issuance of All Types of Interest - Rate Bonds**: In the first half of 2025, the issuance scale of interest - rate bonds reached 16.88 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 37.8%. The issuance of treasury bonds, local government bonds, and policy - bank bonds all increased. Special treasury bonds worth over 1 trillion yuan were issued [16]. - **Downward Trend in the Central Level of Interest - Rate Bond Yields**: The yields of interest - rate bonds generally showed a trend of rising first and then falling, with the central level declining quarterly. The operation of the 10 - year treasury bond yield can be divided into three rounds, with different influencing factors in each round [21][22]. - **Widening but Still Low Term Spread and Narrowing Local Bond Spread**: In the second quarter, the 10Y - 1Y spread widened marginally but remained at a historically low level. The local bond spread narrowed, which may be related to the previous decline in treasury bond yields and increased trading and allocation of local bonds by some institutions [28]. 3.3 Outlook for the Second Half of the Year - **Possible RRR Cuts and Interest Rate Cuts and Strengthened Use of Structural Tools**: Due to the uncertainty of external and domestic demand increasing the pressure on economic recovery, the monetary policy will remain "moderately loose" in the second half of the year, with 1 - 2 times of RRR cuts and interest rate cuts possible. The policy will focus on raising price levels, boosting domestic demand, strengthening cooperation with fiscal policy, and intensifying the use of structural tools [32]. - **Issuance of Interest - Rate Bonds May Exceed 14 Trillion Yuan and Declining Yield Central Level**: In the second half of the year, the issuance of interest - rate bonds may exceed 14 trillion yuan, with high supply pressure in the third quarter and a possible additional issuance of government bonds in the fourth quarter. The central level of yields will continue to decline, and the core trading range of the 10 - year treasury bond yield is expected to be 1.4% - 1.7% [36][39].

Group 1: Tariff Policy - President Trump plans to impose comprehensive tariffs of 15% or 20% on most trade partners, up from the current 10% [1] - A letter was sent to 22 countries establishing tariff rates, including a 50% tariff on goods imported from Brazil and copper imports [2] - Canada will face a 35% tariff on imports starting August 1, with potential for further increases if Canada raises its tariffs [2] Group 2: Trade Relations - The EU is the largest trading partner of the U.S., with over $600 billion in imports last year, while Canada accounted for over $400 billion [4] - The EU has prepared over $100 billion in retaliatory tariffs, targeting goods from Republican states [5] - Ongoing negotiations aim to prevent the EU from facing higher tariffs [5] Group 3: Economic Impact - The S&P 500 index reached a historical high, despite previous volatility following the announcement of global tariffs [1] - Trump dismissed concerns about tariffs leading to inflation, citing a decrease in inflation rates since the pandemic [5] - The U.S. Labor Statistics indicate inflation remains above 2.3% [5] Group 4: Legislative Developments - Trump expressed confidence that the Senate will pass a new sanctions bill against Russia, which he supports [8] - The "Big and Beautiful Act" was signed into law, extending tax cuts and increasing spending on border security and military [9] - Democrats are leveraging concerns over cuts to social safety net programs to gain electoral advantage [10][11]

Group 1 - The article discusses the unique composition of the United States as a nation of immigrants, suggesting that traditional governance methods may fail in this context [1] - The relationship between Musk and Trump has shifted from alliance to open conflict due to differing views on the "Big and Beautiful" bill, which increased national debt by $3.3 trillion [3][4] - Musk's establishment of the "American Party" is seen as a reaction to Trump's policies, aiming to represent the people's interests but facing challenges in the existing two-party system [13] Group 2 - Musk's lack of practical experience in political governance is highlighted, noting that his previous efforts to cut foreign aid faced significant backlash [6][8] - The article emphasizes the importance of the Federal Reserve's independence, arguing that Trump's desire to control it could undermine the global trust in the dollar [10][12] - The article concludes that if the U.S. were governed like a traditional nation, it would lose its dynamism and creativity, ultimately leading to mediocrity [11][12]

点击图片▲收听音频 1. 本文内容精选自2025年7月8日《每天听见吴晓波》的音频，会员可收听全部内 容，非会员可试听前1分钟。 【点击此处，收听音频】 2. 6月24日—7月25日期间购买《每天听见吴晓波》，可享"买1年得2年"的福利，还 送定制笔记本1本。 【点击此处，参与活动】 口述 / 吴晓波 （微信公众号：吴晓波频道） 几天前的7月3号下午，美国众议院以218票对214票的微弱优势，通过了特朗普政府的"大而 美"法案。 这项法案从4月草拟以来，就因为大幅减税、缩减联邦援助等内容而争议不断，并引发了美国两 党的激烈对抗。 无论是在众议院还是参议院，法案的投票都呈现出泾渭分明的党派划线。经过几个月的拉锯， 法案最终涉险过关。 7月4号是美国的独立日，特朗普选择在这一天正式签署"大而美"法案，他宣称法案是"摆脱国家 衰落的独立宣言"，是对独立日的"献礼"。那这项法案到底说了什么，又为什么引发了巨大的争 议呢？我们来看法案的具体内容。 首先，"大而美"法案永久性地延长了特朗普在2017年第一个任期内通过的企业和个人减税措 施，进一步削减了企业和富人的税负，但却使底层民众的处境恶化。 具体来看，法案规定将美国 ...