Group 1: Report Title and Core Views - The report is titled "LPG: Significant Cost Support, Macroeconomic Risks Still Exist; Propylene: Cost Support, Short - term Rebound from Low Levels" [2][3] - The core view is that LPG has significant cost support but still faces macro risks, while propylene is supported by cost and shows a short - term rebound from low levels [2][3] Group 2: Fundamental Data Futures Prices - PG2511 closed at 4,356 yesterday with a daily increase of 0.88%, and its night - session price remained unchanged; PG2512 closed at 4,236 yesterday with a daily increase of 1.49%, and its night - session price dropped 0.05% to 4,234; PL2601 closed at 6,154 yesterday with a daily increase of 1.15%, and its night - session price remained unchanged; PL2602 closed at 6,211 yesterday with a daily increase of 1.40%, and its night - session price rose 0.14% to 6,220 [3] Trading Volume and Open Interest - For PG2511, yesterday's trading volume was 17,245, a decrease of 897 from the previous day, and open interest was 16,040, a decrease of 5279; for PG2512, trading volume was 73,452, an increase of 6427, and open interest was 92,674, a decrease of 1563; for PL2601, trading volume was 10,211, an increase of 4587, and open interest was 10,340, a decrease of 332; for PL2602, trading volume was 5,167, an increase of 2542, and open interest was 5,207, a decrease of 117 [3] Spreads - The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and PG11 contract was 44 yesterday, down from 82 the day before; the spread between Guangzhou imported gas and PG11 contract was 104, down from 142; the spread between Shandong propylene and PL01 contract was - 129, down from - 74; the spread between East China propylene and PL01 contract was - 54, down from - 9; the spread between South China propylene and PL01 contract was - 129, down from - 59 [3] Industrial Chain Data - This week, the PDH operating rate was 71.7%, up from 68.8% last week; the MTBE operating rate was 67.8%, up from 63.1%; the alkylation operating rate was 44.9%, slightly down from 45.1% [3] Group 3: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 0, and that of propylene is also 0, with the trend intensity ranging from - 2 to 2 [6] Group 4: Market Information CP Paper Cargo Prices - On October 23, 2025, the November CP paper cargo price for propane was 461 dollars/ton, up 10 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; for butane, it was 458 dollars/ton, up 10 dollars/ton. The December CP paper cargo price for propane was 470 dollars/ton, up 10 dollars/ton [7] PDH Device Maintenance Plans - Multiple companies have PDH device maintenance plans, such as Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd. starting maintenance on May 12, 2023, with an undetermined end - date; Ningbo Jinfa New Material Co., Ltd.'s PDH Phase I from September 29, 2025, to the end of October 2025 [8] LPG Factory Device Maintenance Plans - Many LPG factories have device maintenance plans, like Huaxing Petrochemical in Shandong starting a full - plant maintenance on October 22, 2024, until November 2025; Guangzhou Petrochemical having a rotational inspection from October 17, 2025, to early December 2025 [8]

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in gold prices, including a significant drop following a record high, highlights the risks associated with investing in gold, particularly the high volatility that can rival that of tech stocks [5][6][11]. Group 1: Analysis of Recent Price Movements - Gold prices experienced a historic single-day drop, marking the largest decline in 12 years, following a substantial increase of approximately 60% year-to-date and over 100% compared to the beginning of last year [5][6]. - The volatility in gold prices is attributed to a lack of clear geopolitical triggers, with speculation that technical factors and profit-taking from ETFs contributed to the sell-off [6][11]. - The increase in margin requirements by the Shanghai Gold Exchange is speculated to have exacerbated the global sell-off, although this remains unconfirmed [6][11]. Group 2: Understanding Volatility and Risk - Volatility is a critical indicator of investment risk, with higher volatility indicating a wider range of potential price changes, which can lead to increased uncertainty for investors [9][10]. - Historical data suggests that while gold has been viewed as a safe-haven asset with lower long-term volatility compared to equities, recent extreme price movements challenge this perception [10][11]. - The current high volatility in gold prices raises concerns, especially for leveraged short-term speculative investments, indicating a heightened risk environment [11]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Future Gold Prices - Key factors that may influence future gold prices include macroeconomic risks, central bank purchasing behavior, and public interest in gold as an investment [14]. - The relationship between macroeconomic conditions, such as international trade disputes and potential economic crises, and gold prices remains significant, as gold is often seen as a stabilizing asset during turbulent times [14][15]. - The increasing gold reserves held by central banks and the psychological factors driving public interest in gold are also critical in determining future price movements [14][15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight LME copper prices fluctuated higher, while domestic prices rose slightly, with a continued loss in domestic refined copper spot imports. Due to the US government shutdown, uncertainties in Sino - US trade, and potential risks in overseas financial markets, the copper market is cautious. Copper prices are likely to remain range - bound in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro - economic developments and the market's reaction to Fed rate cuts [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina oscillated weakly, while electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy showed a strong trend. Alumina has weak support at the bottom and is recommended to short on rallies. Electrolytic aluminum is driven by both macro and micro factors, with strong overall momentum, and can be bought on dips. Scrap aluminum remains tight, and aluminum alloy is relatively more resilient than electrolytic aluminum [1][2]. - Nickel: LME nickel fell, while SHFE nickel rose slightly. The pressure on primary nickel inventory is increasing, and nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely. Attention should be paid to inventory changes and macro - economic disturbances [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight LME copper prices rose, and domestic prices increased slightly. The US government shutdown, uncertainties in Sino - US trade, and potential risks in overseas financial markets make the copper market cautious. Copper prices will likely oscillate within the current range in the short term. LME inventory decreased by 300 tons to 136,850 tons, Comex inventory increased by 521 tons to 314,341 tons, SHFE copper warrants decreased by 1,125 tons to 36,553 tons, and BC copper remained at 12,965 tons [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina oscillated weakly, with AO2601 closing at 2,814 yuan/ton, a 0.32% decline. Electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy showed a strong trend. Alumina's supply is in surplus, and it is recommended to short on rallies. Electrolytic aluminum has strong driving forces and can be bought on dips. Scrap aluminum is in short supply, and aluminum alloy is relatively more resilient [1][2]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel fell 0.46% to 15,140 US dollars/ton, and SHFE nickel rose 0.03% to 121,190 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 402 tons to 250,878 tons, and domestic SHFE warrants decreased by 73 tons to 26,953 tons. The nickel - iron stainless - steel industry chain is stable, and the new energy industry chain has a tight raw material supply. Primary nickel inventory pressure is increasing, and nickel prices will fluctuate widely [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper decreased by 770 yuan/ton to 84,935 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 15 yuan/ton. SHFE copper warrants decreased by 1,125 tons to 36,553 tons, and social inventory (domestic + bonded area) increased by 1.3 million tons to 27.5 million tons [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead remained unchanged at 17,080 yuan/ton. SHFE lead warrants decreased by 3,156 tons to 24,977 tons, and weekly inventory increased by 1,785 tons to 41,701 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: The price of aluminum in Wuxi decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 20,960 yuan/ton, and the price in Nanhai increased by 20 yuan/ton to 20,890 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum warrants decreased by 2,127 tons to 67,270 tons, and social inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 0.2 million tons to 62.5 million tons [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 400 yuan/ton to 123,350 yuan/ton. SHFE nickel warrants decreased by 73 tons to 26,953 tons, and social inventory increased by 4,014 tons to 47,708 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price increased by 0.1% to 21,990 yuan/ton. SHFE zinc inventory increased by 793 tons to 6,268 tons, and social inventory increased by 0.73 million tons to 16.29 million tons [6]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price increased by 0.1% to 280,940 yuan/ton. SHFE tin inventory decreased by 188 tons to 5,691 tons [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: The report provides historical data charts of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][10][11]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: It shows historical data charts of the spread between the first and second - month contracts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][20][21]. - **LME Inventory**: Presents historical data charts of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [23][25][27]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Displays historical data charts of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [29][31][33]. - **Social Inventory**: Provides historical data charts of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 [35][37][39]. - **Smelting Profit**: Includes historical data charts of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [42][44][47]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with extensive experience in commodity research. Wang Heng focuses on aluminum - silicon research, and Zhu Xi focuses on lithium - nickel research [50][51].

Group 1: Report Title and Core View - The report is titled "LPG: Disk Valuation Repair, Macro Risks Still Exist; Propylene: Cost Support, Short - term Low - level Volatility" [1] - The core view is that the LPG disk valuation is being repaired but there are still macro risks, and propylene is supported by cost and will run with short - term low - level volatility [1] Group 2: LPG and Propylene Futures Data Futures Prices - PG2511 closed at 4,318 yesterday with a 1.91% daily increase and 4,326 in the night session with a 0.19% increase; PG2512 closed at 4,174 yesterday with a 2.03% daily increase and 4,181 in the night session with a 0.17% increase; PL2601 closed at 6,084 yesterday with a 0.81% daily increase and 6,098 in the night session with a 0.23% increase; PL2602 closed at 6,125 yesterday with a 0.69% daily increase and 6,143 in the night session with a 0.29% increase [1] Position and Trading Volume - PG2511 had 18,142 contracts traded yesterday, a decrease of 1,241 from the previous day, and a position of 21,319, a decrease of 3,024 from the previous day; PG2512 had 67,025 contracts traded yesterday, an increase of 3,151 from the previous day, and a position of 94,237, an increase of 1,934 from the previous day; PL2601 had 5,624 contracts traded yesterday, a decrease of 4,499 from the previous day, and a position of 10,672, a decrease of 610 from the previous day; PL2602 had 2,625 contracts traded yesterday, a decrease of 1,745 from the previous day, and a position of 5,324, a decrease of 92 from the previous day [1] Spreads - The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the PG11 contract was 82 yesterday, compared to 203 the previous day; the spread between Guangzhou imported gas and the PG11 contract was 142 yesterday, compared to 223 the previous day; the spread between Shandong propylene and the PL01 contract was - 74 yesterday, compared to - 25 the previous day; the spread between East China propylene and the PL01 contract was - 9 yesterday, compared to 40 the previous day; the spread between South China propylene and the PL01 contract was - 59 yesterday, compared to - 10 the previous day [1] Key Industrial Chain Data - The PDH operating rate was 68.8% this week, compared to 70.9% last week; the MTBE operating rate was 63.1% this week, compared to 64.1% last week; the alkylation operating rate was 44.9% this week, compared to 45.1% last week [1] Group 3: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 0, and the trend intensity of propylene is 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4] Group 4: Market News CP Paper Goods Prices - On October 22, 2025, the November CP paper goods price for propane was 451 US dollars/ton, an increase of 11 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the price for butane was 448 US dollars/ton, an increase of 8 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day. The December CP paper goods price for propane was 460 US dollars/ton, an increase of 16 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day [5] Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans - Multiple domestic PDH devices have maintenance plans, such as Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd. starting maintenance on May 12, 2023, with an undetermined end - date; Ningbo Jinfat New Material Co., Ltd. starting maintenance on September 29, 2025, and ending at the end of October 2025 [6] Domestic Liquefied Gas Factory Device Maintenance Plans - Many domestic liquefied gas factories have device maintenance plans, like Zhenghe Petrochemical starting maintenance on May 14, 2024, and ending in October 2025; Guangzhou Petrochemical starting a rotational inspection on October 17, 2025, and ending in early December 2025 [6]

Group 1: Report Title and General Outlook - The report is titled "LPG: Disk Valuation Repair, Macro Risks Still Exist; Propylene: Short - term Low - level Volatility" dated October 22, 2025 [1] Group 2: LPG and Propylene Trend Intensity - LPG trend intensity is 0, and propylene trend intensity is 0, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [-2, 2] interval [4] Group 3: Market Information CP Paper Goods Prices - On October 21, 2025, the November CP paper goods price for propane was 440 dollars/ton, down 7 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; butane was 440 dollars/ton, down 10 dollars/ton. The December CP paper goods price for propane was 444 dollars/ton, down 6 dollars/ton [5] Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans - Multiple companies have PDH device maintenance plans, such as Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd. starting maintenance on May 12, 2023, with an undetermined end - date, and Ningbo Jinfa New Material Co., Ltd. having its PDH Phase I device under maintenance from September 29, 2025, to the end of October 2025 [6] Domestic Liquefied Gas Factory Device Maintenance Plans - Many factories have device maintenance plans, like Zhenghe Petrochemical starting full - plant maintenance on May 14, 2024, ending in October 2025, and Guangzhou Petrochemical having a rotational inspection starting on October 17, 2025, ending in early December 2025 [6] Group 4: Fundamental Tracking LPG Futures Prices - PG2511 yesterday's closing price was 4,237, with a -0.02% daily increase, and the night - session closing price was 4,249, with a 0.28% increase; PG2512 yesterday's closing price was 4,091, with a -0.12% daily increase, and the night - session closing price was 4,098, with a 0.17% increase; PL2601 yesterday's closing price was 6,035, with a 0.15% daily increase, and the night - session closing price was 6,044, with a 0.15% increase; PL2602 yesterday's closing price was 6,083, with a 0.20% daily increase, and the night - session closing price was 6,092, with a 0.15% increase [1] LPG Futures Positions and Trading Volumes - PG2511 yesterday's trading volume was 19,383, a decrease of 4579 from the previous day, and the position was 24,343, a decrease of 5229; PG2512 yesterday's trading volume was 63,874, an increase of 15455, and the position was 92,303, an increase of 4851; PL2601 yesterday's trading volume was 10,123, an increase of 3177, and the position was 11,282, an increase of 53; PL2602 yesterday's trading volume was 4,370, an increase of 2046, and the position was 5,416, an increase of 465 [1] LPG Price Spreads - The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the PG11 contract was 203 yesterday, compared to 242 the previous day; the spread between Guangzhou imported gas and the PG11 contract was 223 yesterday, compared to 242 the previous day; the spread between Shandong propylene and the PL01 contract was -25 yesterday, compared to -16 the previous day; the spread between East China propylene and the PL01 contract was 40 yesterday, compared to 49 the previous day; the spread between South China propylene and the PL01 contract was -10 yesterday, compared to -1 the previous day [1] LPG Industry Chain Important Data - This week, the PDH operating rate was 68.8%, compared to 70.9% last week; the MTBE operating rate was 63.1%, compared to 64.1% last week; the alkylation operating rate was 44.9%, compared to 45.1% last week [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - For lead, the supply - tight pattern has improved, part of the demand was released ahead of schedule in mid - to - late September, there is a large pressure for lead ingot inventory accumulation, and prices may be under pressure. For zinc, the fundamental situation of SHFE zinc continues to be weak with strong supply and weak demand, and with macro - disturbances, prices are under pressure. There is a need to be vigilant about overseas structural risks [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Lead Price and Market Data - SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,925 yuan/ton, up 0.15% from the previous day; SHFE lead futures main contract closed at 17,060 yuan/ton, down 0.09% [1]. - SHFE lead basis was - 135 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of 41.78 dollars/ton, up 0.07 dollars [1]. - Futures active contract trading volume was 27,656 lots, down 30.24%; open interest was 38,195 lots, down 5.03% [1]. - LME inventory was 247,300 tons, unchanged; SHFE lead warrant inventory was 29,265 tons, down 8.78% [1]. - LME 3 - month lead futures closed at 1,994 dollars/ton, up 1.14%; SHFE - LME lead price ratio was 8.56, down 1.22% [1]. Industry Information - In September 2025, refined lead exports decreased by 46% month - on - month, imports decreased by 17.17% month - on - month. Starting lead - acid battery exports decreased by 4.14% month - on - month, imports increased by 74.41% month - on - month [1]. - On October 17, [LME 0 - 3 lead] was at a discount of 41.85 dollars/ton, and the open interest was 155,573 lots, an increase of 2,687 lots [1]. Fundamental Analysis - There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise but difficult to fall, not having a substantial impact on smelter operations. Some smelters have maintenance plans, and the operation rate of primary lead fluctuates slightly. For secondary lead, smelters that had previous maintenance are gradually resuming production, increasing supply. On the demand side, the terminal market has not improved significantly, the peak - season effect has not been reflected, dealers mainly digest inventory, and manufacturers produce according to sales [1]. Trading Strategy - Temporarily wait and see [1]. Zinc Price and Market Data - SMM1 zinc ingot average price was 21,800 yuan/ton, up 0.09% from the previous day; SHFE zinc futures main contract closed at 21,855 yuan/ton, up 0.18% [1]. - SHFE zinc basis was - 55 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a premium of 230.29 dollars/ton, up 93.44 dollars [1]. - Futures active contract trading volume was 86,404 lots, down 2.57%; open interest was 65,610 lots, down 15.04% [1]. - LME inventory was 37,325 tons, unchanged; SHFE zinc warrant inventory was 66,419 tons, down 1.33% [1]. - LME 3 - month zinc futures closed at 2,976 dollars/ton, up 1.14%; SHFE - LME zinc price ratio was 7.34, down 0.94% [1]. Industry Information - In September 2025, zinc concentrate imports were 505,400 tons (physical tons), a month - on - month increase of 8.15% (38,000 physical tons) and a year - on - year increase of 24.94%. The cumulative zinc concentrate imports from January to September were 4,008,000 tons (physical tons), a cumulative year - on - year increase of 40.49% [1]. - In September 2025, refined zinc imports were 22,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3,000 tons or 11.6%, and a year - on - year decrease of 57%. The cumulative refined zinc imports from January to September were 258,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 19.3%. In September, refined zinc exports were 2,500 tons [1]. - On October 17, [LME 0 - 3 zinc] was at a premium of 136.85 dollars/ton, and the open interest was 224,271 lots, a decrease of 279 lots [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Smelters have sufficient raw material inventories, and zinc ore processing fees continue to rise. Last week, domestic zinc concentrate processing fees fell to 3,400 yuan/metal ton, and the import zinc ore processing fee index rose to 118.75 dollars/dry ton. Affected by the low internal - external price ratio, domestic ores have an advantage, and smelters mainly purchase domestic ores. Domestic TC in October may still decline. On the supply side, smelter profits and production enthusiasm have improved, and the monthly output is expected to remain at around 600,000 tons. On the demand side, there is no significant improvement. As the SHFE - LME ratio continues to deteriorate, the zinc ingot export window is expected to open [1]. Trading Strategy - Temporarily wait and see [1].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The short - term stock index is expected to be strong and volatile, and attention should be paid to the possible Sino - US leaders' meeting during the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of this month [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward space [1]. - Gold and silver prices are affected by Sino - US trade relations, US government shutdown, and Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, showing different trends [1]. - Copper prices are expected to remain strong due to continued fermentation of copper supply disturbances and improved macro - liquidity [1]. - Aluminum and alumina prices are expected to fluctuate, with alumina facing weak fundamentals [1]. - Zinc prices are supported by short - term export windows, while nickel and stainless - steel prices are affected by macro factors and supply - demand conditions [1]. - Tin prices have long - term opportunities for bottom - fishing due to supply risks and demand support [1]. - Industrial silicon, polycrystalline silicon, and other chemical products have different supply - demand situations and price trends [1]. - Black metal prices are generally volatile, with supply - demand contradictions and seasonal impacts [1]. - Agricultural product prices are affected by factors such as trade policies, supply - demand relationships, and weather [1]. - Energy and chemical product prices are influenced by OPEC+ production policies, geopolitical situations, and demand seasons [1]. - Shipping freight rates may stop falling and stabilize [1]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Stock index: Short - term strong and volatile, beware of tariff policy fluctuations, focus on the Sino - US leaders' meeting at the end of the month [1]. - Bond futures: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the rise [1]. - Gold: High - level decline due to Sino - US trade easing, but expected to be volatile due to factors such as US government shutdown and Fed's interest - rate cut expectations [1]. - Silver: High - level decline, short - term short - side volatile, pay attention to physical tightness in London [1]. Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Expected to remain strong due to supply disturbances and improved macro - liquidity [1]. - Aluminum: Fundamentals are mixed, price expected to fluctuate [1]. - Alumina: Weak fundamentals, pay attention to cost support [1]. - Zinc: Supported by short - term export windows, but subsequent disturbances still exist [1]. - Nickel: Short - term macro - dominated volatility, high - inventory suppression exists [1]. - Stainless steel: Short - term volatility, pay attention to short - term trading opportunities [1]. - Tin: Long - term bottom - fishing opportunities due to supply risks and demand support [1]. Chemical products - Industrial silicon: Northwest production resumes, polycrystalline silicon production increases in October, organic silicon demand is weak [1]. - Polycrystalline silicon: Supply increases and demand decreases in October, policy impact fades [1]. Black metals - Steel products (including rebar, hot - rolled coil): Industry drivers are unclear, valuation is low, not recommended for directional trading [1]. - Iron ore: Near - month limited by production restrictions, far - month has upward potential [1]. - Others (such as coking coal, coke, glass, soda ash): Generally volatile, facing supply - demand contradictions and price pressure [1]. Agricultural products - Vegetable oils (such as palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil): Affected by trade policies, supply - demand relationships, and inventory levels, with different trading suggestions [1]. - Grains and oilseeds (such as corn, soybean meal): Affected by trade policies, supply - demand, and weather, with corresponding outlooks [1]. - Others (such as cotton, sugar, pulp, etc.): Different price trends and trading strategies based on their own fundamentals [1]. Energy and chemicals - Crude oil and fuel oil: Bearish due to OPEC+ production increase, geopolitical cooling, demand off - season, and US tariff threats [1]. - Other energy - related products (such as LPG, etc.): Affected by various factors and showing different price trends [1]. - Chemical products (such as ethylene glycol, styrene, etc.): Affected by supply - demand, inventory, and production factors [1]. Others - Shipping: Container shipping rates may stop falling and stabilize [1]. - Livestock: Pig prices are expected to be weak due to supply - demand imbalance [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - For LPG, the disk valuation is being repaired, but macro - risks still exist [1]. - For propylene, the supply and demand are relatively loose, and it will experience short - term weak and volatile trends [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **LPG Futures Prices and Changes**: PG2511 closed at 4,220 yesterday with a - 1.12% daily increase, and 4,253 at night with a 0.78% increase; PG2512 closed at 4,083 yesterday with a - 1.33% daily increase, and 4,119 at night with a 0.88% increase; PL2601 closed at 6,007 yesterday with a - 1.62% daily increase, and 6,073 at night with a 1.10% increase; PL2602 closed at 6,052 yesterday with a - 1.59% daily increase, and 6,131 at night with a 1.31% increase [1]. - **LPG Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: PG2511 had a trading volume of 45,662 yesterday, a decrease of 21,719 from the previous day, and an open interest of 35,905, a decrease of 6,215; PG2512 had a trading volume of 50,907 yesterday, a decrease of 6,036 from the previous day, and an open interest of 82,176, an increase of 3,605; PL2601 had a trading volume of 9,061 yesterday, an increase of 502 from the previous day, and an open interest of 11,788, an increase of 277; PL2602 had a trading volume of 3,426 yesterday, an increase of 734 from the previous day, and an open interest of 5,057, an increase of 222 [1]. - **LPG Price Spreads**: The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and PG11 contract was 280 yesterday, compared with 232 the previous day; the spread between Guangzhou imported gas and PG11 contract was 300 yesterday, compared with 262 the previous day; the spread between Shandong propylene and PL01 contract was 153 yesterday, compared with 109 the previous day; the spread between East China propylene and PL01 contract was 158 yesterday, compared with 84 the previous day; the spread between South China propylene and PL01 contract was 118 yesterday, compared with 19 the previous day [1]. - **LPG Industrial Chain Data**: This week, the PDH operating rate was 68.8%, compared with 70.9% last week; the MTBE operating rate was 63.1%, compared with 64.1% last week; the alkylation operating rate was 45.1%, compared with 46.1% last week [1]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 0, and that of propylene is also 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4]. 3.3 Market News - On October 17, 2025, the November CP paper - cargo price of propane was 447 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars per ton from the previous trading day; the November CP paper - cargo price of butane was 450 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars per ton from the previous trading day; the December CP paper - cargo price of propane was 450 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 4 US dollars per ton from the previous trading day [5]. - There are multiple domestic PDH device maintenance plans, including those of Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd., etc. The maintenance start times range from 2023 to 2025, and most of the end times are undetermined [6]. - There are also multiple domestic liquefied gas plant device maintenance plans, including those of Zhenghe Petrochemical, Huaxing Petrochemical, etc. The maintenance start times range from 2024 to 2025, and the end times vary, with some being undetermined [6].

Core Insights - The current market for stainless steel is experiencing price declines, with specific prices for 304 cold-rolled steel in Wuxi and Foshan at 12,950 CNY per ton, down 50 CNY from the previous day [1] - Nickel ore prices remain firm, with domestic nickel ore prices expected to rise by 0.2-0.3 USD in September, while nickel iron prices are stable but face pressure due to increasing losses in domestic and Indonesian iron plants [3] - Domestic stainless steel production is on the rise, with an estimated output of 3.45 million tons in September, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 4.09% and a year-on-year increase of 5.07% [1] Price Trends - As of October 14, the cold-rolled stainless steel prices in Wuxi and Foshan are both at 12,950 CNY per ton, showing a daily decrease of 50 CNY [1] - The base price has increased by 40 CNY to 55 CNY per ton [1] Supply and Inventory - Domestic stainless steel production is projected to increase to 3.49 million tons in October, a month-on-month increase of 1.06% and a year-on-year increase of 5.99% [1] - Social inventory of 300 series stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan has risen to 504,600 tons, a week-on-week increase of 32,700 tons [2] Market Dynamics - The stainless steel market is currently facing weak macroeconomic conditions, with prices generally below the latest agent prices, leading to limited willingness among traders to adjust prices [3] - The demand from traditional downstream sectors remains weak, while new emerging sectors are also showing a decline in growth expectations, resulting in increased bargaining space for traders but limited volume [3] Operational Recommendations - The main trading range is suggested to be between 12,400 and 12,800 CNY, with a short-term outlook indicating weak fluctuations [4]

Core Viewpoint - The silver market has outperformed gold significantly in 2023, with silver prices reaching a historic high of over $53 per ounce, marking an 84% increase since early 2025, compared to gold's 56% increase in the same period [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Silver's market size is significantly smaller than gold's, estimated to be about one-tenth of the gold market, leading to higher volatility in silver prices [2] - Recent liquidity tightening in London, the global center for physical silver trading, has contributed to a sharp increase in silver prices, with a rise of over 35% since late August [2] Group 2: Investment Risks - Goldman Sachs analysts caution that silver lacks central bank support, making it more susceptible to price fluctuations and greater downside risks compared to gold [2][3] - The absence of central bank intervention means that even a temporary outflow of investment funds could trigger disproportionate price declines in silver [2][3] Group 3: Performance Characteristics - Silver typically acts as a "leveraged version" of gold, performing better during periods of macroeconomic risk aversion but also facing more severe declines when market sentiment shifts [3] - Silver's dependence on industrial demand, such as for photovoltaic applications, makes it more vulnerable to economic cycles, contrasting with gold's more stable safe-haven attributes [3]