日本首相高市早苗正面临一项关键决定——提名谁填补日本央行政策的空缺席位。这些提名将向经济学 家和投资者释放信号，显示她希望在多大程度上影响央行政策。 而曾任野村控股高管的中川，基本上遵循委员会的共识，自日本央行于2024年3月结束其大规模刺激以 来，对所有加息决定均投下赞成票。 据知情人士透露，高市政府最早可能于2月25日召开的国会会议上，提名接替9人委员会成员中野口旭和 中川顺子的继任者。野口的五年任期将于下月底届满，而中川的任期则于6月29日结束。 "如果她真心想阻止日元贬值或长期债券收益率上升，最好不要选择再通胀派，"前审议委员安达诚司本 周早些时候在采访中表示。 高市以支持刺激政策、偏重经济增长以及对加息持谨慎态度而闻名。早在2024年，即出任首相的前一 年，她甚至表示，彼时日本央行加息将是"愚蠢的"。自去年10月上任以来，她的经济顾问小组吸纳了一 些由其导师安倍提名进入日本央行政策委员会的再通胀派人士，包括前副行长若田部昌澄和片冈刚士。 不过自上任以来，她已越来越少公开谈及货币政策的具体内容。2月16日在首相官邸与央行行长植田和 男一对一会面时，高市并未提出任何具体政策要求，植田表示。 一些观察人士 ...

张尧浠：地缘风险反复、金价维持调整待攀升预期 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于4876.74美元/盎司，先行录得日内低点4853.93美元，之后反弹回升，于午间回撤，又于欧盘尾再度反弹，延续美盘后半段冲 击5000美元关口上方，录得日内高点5011.16美元，但再度遇阻回撤，最终收于4977.49美元，日振幅157.23美元，收涨100.75美元，涨幅2.07%。 影响上，日内受到技术支撑买盘推动，以及俄媒表示俄美乌日内瓦会谈未签署任何文件，哈塞特：认为美联储还有很大的降息空间，而令地缘局势风险高 企，降息前景提升，助力金价重回5000美元关口上方，但由于较为强硬的美联储会议纪要，几位官员为通胀高企时加息留出空间等言论公布后而有所遇阻 回撤收线。 展望今日周四(2月19日)：国际黄金开盘，延续昨日尾盘强硬的美联储会议纪要的打压产生的遇阻回撤之力，以及中轨线阻力压制，而先行走弱。但下方 仍有30日均线支撑未能跌破，地缘局势风险仍在，也仍有美联储官员表示年内还存在很大降息空间，所以，利好因素也仍然存在，那么金价走势在局势明 朗之前，将会维持震荡波动为主，至于方向上，个人仍看好再度攀升。 上交易日周三(2月18日)：国际 ...

石油输出国组织（欧佩克）在最新的月度报告中维持全球石油需求预期不变。欧佩克表示，近期多个产 油区地缘局势紧张、对供应中断的担忧、全球经济增长和宽松的金融政策均对油价企稳和未来油市需求 提供了支撑。 供应中断担忧改善市场情绪国际油价明显反弹 2026年1月，全球范围内涉及产油国的地缘扰动不断，在此背景下，国际油价结束下滑趋势、出现显著 回升。根据欧佩克最新发布的月度报告，1月份，欧佩克参考篮子（ORB）价格环比上涨0.61美元／ 桶，平均至62.31美元／桶；ICE布伦特原油期货价格环比上涨3.10美元／桶，平均至64.73美元／桶； NYMEX的WTI原油期货价格环比上涨2.39美元／桶，平均至60.26美元／桶。 对此，欧佩克报告认为，市场对短期油市基本面的判断发生转变是1月份油价走强的重要原因。 报告称，当前的低利率政策为家庭和企业创造了更宽松的融资环境，有效提振了石油产品核心领域的消 费活力。尽管经济增长仍存在地区差异，部分经济体失业率略有攀升，但宽松的货币政策为全球经济复 苏提供了有力支撑。"这使得2026年全球石油需求增长140万桶／日、2027年增长130万桶／日的预测更 为可信。"报告认为。 值 ...

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran advocates for interest rate cuts, arguing that the current monetary policy threatens U.S. economic growth, despite tax cuts intended to support expansion [1] - Miran expresses little concern over inflation, citing low housing inflation offsetting price increases in other areas, and suggests that a more accommodative monetary policy is necessary to support the labor market [2] - Miran has consistently called for larger rate cuts in previous policy meetings and was one of the dissenting votes against maintaining the current interest rate range [2] Group 2 - Research from the New York Fed indicates that tariffs imposed during the Trump administration have led to increased costs for U.S. businesses and consumers, with the average tariff rate on imported goods expected to rise significantly by 2025 [3][4] - The burden of high tariffs is primarily borne by U.S. companies and consumers, as exporters do not lower prices in response to decreased demand, instead passing on the costs [4] - The Tax Foundation estimates that the increased tariffs will result in an additional annual expenditure of $1,000 per household by 2025, rising to $1,300 by 2026 [4][6]

就在同一天，中国国务院常务会议正在研究促进有效投资的政策措施 美东时间2月6日下午2点后不久，道琼斯工业平均指数首次跨越了50，000点大关 市场分析师指出，这一里程碑不仅是一个数字，更是市场信心的确认，表明投资者已经适应了更高利率、更慢的增长节奏和全球不确定性的现实环境 这次反弹特别令人意外，因为就在此前几天，科技股的大幅抛售曾令市场承压 与华尔街的狂欢形成对比，中国的政策制定者正在部署一系列促进有效投资的措施。 国务院常务会议明确提出，要创新完善政策措施，加力提效用好中央预算内投资、超长期特别国债、地方政府专项债券等资金和新型政策性金融工具 道琼斯指数突破5万点心理关口的同一天，中国国务院常务会议正在研究如何促进有效投资，稳定经济增长。历史性时刻与政策布局在同一时间轴上交错， 勾勒出全球经济不同发展路径的镜像。 2月6日，道琼斯工业平均指数飙升逾1200点，历史上首次突破50，000点大关 美股突破5万点与中国促进有效投资的举措，表面上看似无关联，实则反映出两种不同的经济逻辑。 美国消费者信心增强和通胀预期降温直接刺激了股市 与此同时，微软、Meta、谷歌与亚马逊在2026年的合计资本支出预计将达到约65 ...

美联储新任主席提名刚落定，特朗普再度发表重磅言论。 当地时间周一，特朗普直接将沃什与15%经济增速关联，盛赞沃什"是位非常优秀的人选"。 与此同时，他再次表达对现任美联储主席鲍威尔的不满，直言当初选择他是"犯了大错"。 GDP增速有望达到15%？ 特朗普此次大放豪言，本质上仍是为其降息诉求铺路。 此前，他曾明确表示"若沃什曾主张加息，自己绝不会提名他"，并调侃若沃什之后不降息，他将会起诉 对方。 眼下中期选举将至，特朗普直接将经济压力"转移"到还没上任的沃什身上。 此前，他曾表示在2029年离开白宫前，道琼斯工业指数将达到10万点，而降息正是实现这一目标的关键 抓手。 "若沃什能胜任本职，美国经济增速有望达到15%，我认为甚至不止于此。" 早前，美国白宫经济顾问哈塞特表示，预计2025年美国GDP增速将从5%略微放缓至4.5%，今年经济增 速或将超过3%。 拉长时间维度来看，自20世纪50年代以来，美国GDP增速仅有少数几次突破15%，过去50年平均年增长 率也仅为2.8%。 显而易见，"15%增速"这一目标更像是特朗普的政治诉求，其核心是希望沃什上任后推行宽松货币政 策、持续降息，在中期选举前为经济注入动力 ...

Group 1 - The analysis from Nomura Securities indicates that rising US Treasury yields and a weak yen will compel the Kishida administration to shift its policy focus from "old Kishida trade" of fiscal expansion and a weak yen to "new Kishida trade" emphasizing structural and regulatory reforms [1][5] - Following the recent elections, the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party and Nippon Ishin gained a majority, leading to a significant rise in the Nikkei 225 index, which surpassed 57,000 points for the first time in history [3][4] - The real estate sector led the gains in the Nikkei index, with a rise of over 7%, while companies like CyberAgent Inc. and Advantest saw substantial stock price increases of over 16% and 12%, respectively [3][4] Group 2 - Investment institutions are optimistic about sectors such as defense, artificial intelligence, and semiconductors, which are expected to benefit significantly from Kishida's increased investments in these areas [5][6] - The yen has faced significant depreciation, dropping approximately 6% against the dollar and reaching historical lows against the euro and Swiss franc, which has raised concerns about potential currency intervention [5][7] - Analysts express skepticism about Japanese government bonds, particularly long-term bonds, due to fiscal concerns, although recent yield increases have made them more attractive to some investors [5][6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent election results in Japan indicate that the ruling coalition led by Prime Minister Kishi Sanae has maintained control over the House of Representatives, which is expected to influence the financial markets positively, particularly in terms of the yen, Japanese stocks, and bonds [1][2]. Currency Market Impact - Following the election results, the yen experienced a short-term sell-off, dropping approximately 0.3% to 157.76 yen per dollar, marking its lowest level in over two weeks [3]. - The rise of Kishi Sanae as Japan's first female Prime Minister has previously led to significant stock market gains but also substantial sell-offs in Japanese bonds and the yen [2]. Economic Policy Expectations - Kishi has promised to implement aggressive fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate economic growth, raising concerns about potential overspending and increasing Japan's already high debt burden [4]. - Analysts predict that her decisive election victory will likely reinforce expectations for aggressive fiscal policies, leading to further short-term depreciation of the yen [5]. Stock Market Reaction - The Japanese stock market opened significantly higher, with the Nikkei 225 index reaching a new historical intraday high, reflecting strong investor confidence in Kishi's government [6][7]. - The recent performance of the Japanese stock market has been bolstered not only by domestic political developments but also by a rebound in U.S. stock markets, which saw significant gains [8]. Bond Market Concerns - The potential for increased government spending under Kishi's administration raises concerns among bond investors, particularly given Japan's already substantial debt load [9]. - Analysts suggest that Kishi's election victory could lead to upward pressure on Japanese government bond yields, as the market anticipates a revival of "Kishi trading" [10]. Balancing Fiscal Policies - Experts believe that Kishi will need to maintain a delicate balance between aggressive fiscal policies and fiscal discipline to manage the rising bond yields effectively [11].

Economic Growth and Inflation - Russia's GDP growth for 2025 is projected at 1%, a slowdown from 4.1% in 2023 and 4.3% in 2024, primarily due to measures aimed at reducing inflation [2] - The inflation rate in Russia has decreased to 5.6% in 2025, down from 9.5% in 2024, with a year-to-date annualized inflation rate of 6.4% as of January 26 [3] - The Central Bank of Russia has adjusted the benchmark interest rate, which peaked at 21% in the first half of 2025 and was reduced to 18% in the second half, maintaining a "moderately tight" stance to prevent inflation rebound [3] Factors Contributing to Economic Decline - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has shifted financial resources towards military spending, limiting investments in production and technology [4] - Long-term impacts of Western sanctions have led to technological blockades, hindering industrial upgrades and weakening the industrial base [4] - High borrowing costs, reduced demand, and increased military expenditures have tightened fiscal conditions, contributing to economic slowdown [5] Sectoral Performance - Key sectors such as transportation, construction, and certain extraction industries, particularly coal, oil, and gas, have underperformed due to the Central Bank's interest rate hikes [5] - Investment growth in Russia has stagnated, with fixed asset investment projected to show zero growth by the end of 2025, marking the end of rapid growth driven by state spending and import substitution [5] Future Economic Outlook - The geopolitical uncertainty poses significant challenges for Russia's economy, with energy exports constrained and international oil prices declining [6] - The government plans to increase the value-added tax rate from 20% to 22% starting in 2026, which is expected to impact consumer prices and inflation [6] - Experts suggest that the continuation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict will likely lead to sustained economic decline unless significant changes occur [7]

智通财经APP获悉，中银国际发表报告，维持H股内银业增持评级等，现时该券商覆盖的内银H股的平 均市净率约为0.54倍(基于2026年预期市净率)，仍处于过去10年该板块历史估值区间的下限，认为今年 投资者仍将更加关注内银H股板块，该板块估值较低，基本面稳健，2026年预期股息率约5.46%，相较 中国1年期及10年期国债的收益率分别为1.29%及1.81%，内地一年期人民币存款利率1.5%，香港一年期 港元定存息约为3%而言颇具吸引力。 展望2026年，鉴于政策制定者可能继续推行宽松的货币政策和积极的财政政策，长期投资者将继续密切 关注内银H股板块。该券商指，工商银行 (01398) 是在该板块中的首选，在于其估值在同业中相对较 低。该券商同时亦建议投资者买进农业银行 (01288) 、招商银行 (03968) 、建设银行 (00939) 、邮储银行 (01658) 及光大银行 (06818) 。 对于今年1月，内银H股表现跑输恒指同期升幅，中银国际指，原因是投资者热衷买进高贝塔系数(股价 波动幅度大于整体大市)的股票，展望未来，认为投资风格可能会更加平衡。 2026年，政策制定者可能 会继续推动宽松的货币政 ...