Core Insights - Indonesia's GDP grew by 5.04% year-on-year in Q3, but the sustainability of this growth is under threat due to slowing export growth and weakening consumer confidence [1] Economic Performance - The report highlights that Indonesia's consumer price index (CPI) rose by 2.86% year-on-year in September, indicating a rebound in inflation, yet it remains within the central bank's target range of 2% to 4% [1] - The central bank is expected to maintain an accommodative monetary policy stance as long as inflation stays within the target range [1] Monetary Policy Outlook - To support economic growth, the central bank may further cut interest rates in the coming months, with a cumulative reduction of up to 75 basis points anticipated by early 2026 [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The current overseas market has relatively scarce liquidity, leading to a general decline in major risk assets and weak performance of gold and silver prices. However, the tightening liquidity means a higher probability of subsequent expansion of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, which will significantly drive up the prices of gold and silver. The release of the Fed's loose monetary policy expectations still requires a certain period, but the Fed Chairman has explained the balance - sheet expansion. The October interest - rate meeting sent a signal that the December interest rate cut is still uncertain while strengthening the subsequent "interest rate cut + balance - sheet expansion" monetary policy approach. In the loose monetary policy cycle, combined with the potential tightness in the physical market, it is recommended to go long on silver on dips. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 880 - 966 yuan/gram, and that for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 11001 - 12366 yuan/kilogram [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - On November 5, 2025, Shanghai gold fell 1.14% to 908.92 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver fell 1.17% to 11226.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold was reported at 3941.30 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver was reported at 46.90 dollars/ounce. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond was 4.1%, and the US dollar index was 100.19 [1] - From November 3 to November 4, 2025, the closing price of COMEX gold active contract dropped from 4013.70 dollars/ounce to 3941.30 dollars/ounce, a decrease of 1.80%; the trading volume increased from 22.38 million lots to 24.46 million lots, an increase of 9.30%. The closing price of COMEX silver active contract dropped from 47.91 dollars/ounce to 46.90 dollars/ounce, a decrease of 2.12%; the trading volume increased from 126.80 million lots to 135.28 million lots, an increase of 6.69% [5] 3.2 Market Analysis - The significant increase in the difference between the US SOFR rate and the EFFR shows that under the background of the US government shutdown, the US Treasury account occupies a large amount of funds, and the reserves on the Fed's liability side are scarce. The tightening liquidity is in line with Powell's previous speech, and the Fed will suspend balance - sheet reduction on December 1 [1] - In the silver physical market, although the premium of London silver relative to New York silver and the lease rate are relatively weak, the silver premium in India has significantly rebounded, indicating strong domestic silver demand in India [2] 3.3 Strategy Suggestion - In the loose monetary policy cycle, combined with the potential tightness in the physical market, it is recommended to go long on silver on dips. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 880 - 966 yuan/gram, and that for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 11001 - 12366 yuan/kilogram [3]

Market Overview - In October 2025, the RMB exchange rate fluctuated between 7.0843 and 7.1503, showing an overall appreciation trend[2] - The onshore RMB rate ranged from 7.0991 to 7.1411, while the offshore RMB rate fluctuated between 7.0959 and 7.1503[2] - The U.S. government shutdown and rising U.S. debt levels contributed to a bearish outlook for the USD[3] Influencing Factors - The U.S. national debt exceeded $38 trillion as of October 21, 2025, raising concerns about sustainability[3] - The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points on October 30, 2025, while the ECB and BoJ maintained their rates[3] - Frequent high-level interactions between China and the U.S. are expected to stabilize the RMB exchange rate[3] Future Outlook - The RMB is projected to continue appreciating, with an expected range of 7.00 to 7.20 in November 2025[1] - Factors supporting this trend include China's rising international status and increased attractiveness of Chinese assets[6] - Potential downward pressures include a focus on high-quality economic development in China and increased global market volatility[6]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Views of the Report - For the stock index, after a previous continuous rise, recent hot sectors have rotated rapidly, with technology remaining the market's main theme. In the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the mid - to long - term strategy is mainly to go long on dips [4]. - For treasury bonds, the central bank's restart of treasury bond trading is short - term positive for the bond market sentiment. In the medium term, the bond market in the fourth quarter is mainly affected by fundamentals, the implementation time of the fund fee rate new regulations, and institutional allocation power. The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover [6]. - For precious metals, the release of the Fed's loose monetary policy expectations still requires a certain period. It is recommended to go long on silver on dips. The reference operating range for the Shanghai gold main contract is 880 - 966 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai silver main contract is 11001 - 12366 yuan/kilogram [8]. - For non - ferrous metals, different metals have different outlooks. For example, copper prices have a strong support at the bottom; aluminum prices may maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend; zinc prices are expected to be strong in the short - term but have limited upside space; lead prices are expected to be strong in the short - term; nickel prices may be weak in the short - term but have long - term support; tin prices may oscillate and rise in the short - term; lithium carbonate prices may oscillate in a range; alumina prices are recommended to be observed; stainless steel prices are difficult to rebound substantially; and casting aluminum alloy prices have stronger support [11][13][15][16][18][21][23][26][28][30]. - For black building materials, steel consumption may gradually recover in the future; iron ore prices may experience a phased decline; glass prices' upward space is restricted; soda ash prices will continue to oscillate weakly; manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the black sector's trend; industrial silicon prices may consolidate; and polysilicon prices' supply - demand pattern may improve marginally [33][35][37][38][42][44][47]. - For energy and chemicals, rubber prices have a stabilizing sign; oil prices are not recommended to be overly shorted in the short - term; methanol prices are recommended to be observed; urea prices are recommended to be observed; pure benzene and styrene prices may stop falling; PVC prices are expected to have a continuous inventory accumulation pressure; ethylene glycol prices are recommended to be shorted on rallies; PTA prices may see an opportunity for processing fee repair; p - xylene prices are recommended to be observed; polyethylene prices may maintain a low - level oscillation; and polypropylene prices are under pressure from high inventory [52][54][56][59][61][63][65][67][70][72][74]. - For agricultural products, hog prices are expected to decline slightly; egg prices are expected to be mainly stable with a slight decline; soybean meal prices are expected to rise in the short - term and be sold on rallies in the medium - term; oil prices' palm oil may reverse the weak trend; sugar prices are recommended to be shorted after the rebound weakens; and cotton prices have limited upward space [76][78][83][86][89][91]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Category Stock Index - **Market Information**: A Chinese team has developed a new "direct deamination" process for aromatic amines; Samsung has suspended DDR5 DRAM contract quotes; Amazon has signed a $38 billion agreement with OpenAI; and JPMorgan expects greater upside potential for AI capital expenditure [2]. - **Strategy View**: After a continuous rise, hot sectors rotate rapidly, and technology is the main theme. The long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Monday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had different changes. The central bank and the Bank of Korea renewed a bilateral currency swap agreement, and the winning results of CDB's financial bonds were announced. The central bank conducted 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and had a net withdrawal of funds [5]. - **Strategy View**: The central bank's restart of treasury bond trading is short - term positive for the bond market sentiment. The bond market in the fourth quarter is affected by multiple factors and is expected to oscillate and recover [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold and silver prices declined. COMEX gold and silver prices were reported. Fed officials' statements were mixed, and the weak US manufacturing PMI increased the market's interest - rate cut expectations [7]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to go long on silver on dips. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai gold and silver main contracts are provided [8]. Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market Information**: Due to weak PMI data, copper prices oscillated and declined. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic social inventory increased [10]. - **Strategy View**: After the short - term optimism is realized, copper prices have strong support at the bottom. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai copper and LME copper are provided [11]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices continued to strengthen. LME aluminum inventory decreased, and domestic social inventory increased [12]. - **Strategy View**: Global trade situation improvement and supply - side disturbances support aluminum prices, which may maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum are provided [13]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Shanghai zinc index rose. LME zinc price increased. Domestic and foreign inventories and other data are reported [14][15]. - **Strategy View**: Domestic zinc ore inventory declined, and smelting profit decreased. Zinc prices are expected to be strong in the short - term but have limited upside space [15]. Lead - **Market Information**: Shanghai lead index rose. LME lead price increased. Domestic and foreign inventories and other data are reported [16]. - **Strategy View**: Lead ore inventory declined, and lead prices are expected to be strong in the short - term [16]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices oscillated narrowly. Spot prices and cost - end prices are reported [17]. - **Strategy View**: Short - term recommendation is to wait and see. If nickel prices fall enough, long positions can be considered. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai nickel and LME nickel are provided [18][19]. Tin - **Market Information**: Shanghai tin prices rose. Supply, demand, and inventory data are reported [20]. - **Strategy View**: Tin prices may oscillate and rise in the short - term. It is recommended to go long on dips. The reference operating ranges for domestic and overseas tin are provided [21]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The spot index of lithium carbonate declined, and the futures contract price rose [22]. - **Strategy View**: Lithium prices may oscillate in a range. Attention should be paid to relevant factors. The reference operating range for the futures contract is provided [23]. Alumina - **Market Information**: Alumina index declined. Spot prices, inventory, and other data are reported [24][25]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract is provided, and attention should be paid to relevant policies [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices declined. Spot prices, inventory, and other data are reported [27]. - **Strategy View**: Stainless steel prices are difficult to rebound substantially in the short - term [28]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Casting aluminum alloy prices strengthened. Price, inventory, and other data are reported [29]. - **Strategy View**: Cost - end support and supply - side policies strengthen the price support [30]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market Information**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices declined. Spot prices, inventory, and other data are reported [32]. - **Strategy View**: Steel prices showed a weak oscillating trend. Future steel consumption may gradually recover [33]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices declined. Spot prices, inventory, and other data are reported [34]. - **Strategy View**: Iron ore demand continues to weaken, and inventory pressure remains. There is a risk of a phased decline in ore prices [35]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass - Market Information**: Glass prices declined. Spot prices, inventory, and other data are reported [36]. - **Glass - Strategy View**: Market sentiment is boosted, but the upward space is restricted. The impact of policies and production cuts needs to be observed [37]. - **Soda Ash - Market Information**: Soda ash prices declined. Spot prices, inventory, and other data are reported [38]. - **Soda Ash - Strategy View**: Soda ash prices will continue to oscillate weakly in the short - term [38]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices rose. Spot prices, inventory, and other data are reported [39]. - **Strategy View**: They are likely to follow the black sector's trend. Manganese silicon may be driven by manganese ore, and ferrosilicon has low operability [42]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon - Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices rose. Spot prices, inventory, and other data are reported [43]. - **Industrial Silicon - Strategy View**: Industrial silicon prices may consolidate. Supply - side pressure persists, and demand support weakens [44]. - **Polysilicon - Market Information**: Polysilicon prices declined. Spot prices, inventory, and other data are reported [45][46]. - **Polysilicon - Strategy View**: The supply - demand pattern may improve marginally. Attention should be paid to relevant factors [47]. Energy and Chemicals Category Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices showed a stabilizing sign. Supply, demand, and inventory data are reported [49][50][51]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to trade long in the short - term and partially build hedging positions [52]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil and refined oil prices rose. European ARA inventory data are reported [53]. - **Strategy View**: Oil prices are not recommended to be overly shorted in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see [54]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices declined. Spot prices, inventory, and other data are reported [55]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to wait and see. High inventory and weak demand may lead to a further decline in prices [56]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices declined. Spot prices, inventory, and other data are reported [57]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to wait and see. The supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [59]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: Pure benzene prices declined, and styrene prices had different trends. Supply, demand, and inventory data are reported [60]. - **Strategy View**: Benzene and styrene prices may stop falling. The BZN spread has upward repair space [61]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices declined. Cost, supply, demand, and inventory data are reported [62]. - **Strategy View**: There is a continuous inventory accumulation pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [63]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices declined. Supply, demand, and inventory data are reported [64]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to short on rallies. There is a risk of continuous inventory accumulation [65]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices rose. Supply, demand, and inventory data are reported [66]. - **Strategy View**: There is an opportunity for processing fee repair. The supply - demand pattern is complex [67]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: p - Xylene prices rose. Supply, demand, and inventory data are reported [68][69]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to wait and see. PXN may be under pressure in November [70]. Polyethylene PE - **Market Information**: PE prices declined. Supply, demand, and inventory data are reported [71]. - **Strategy View**: PE prices may maintain a low - level oscillation. Supply - demand and other factors are considered [72]. Polypropylene PP - **Market Information**: PP prices declined. Supply, demand, and inventory data are reported [73]. - **Strategy View**: PP prices are under pressure from high inventory. Supply - demand and other factors are considered [74]. Agricultural Products Category Hog - **Market Information**: Hog prices declined. Supply and demand data are reported [76]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to short on rallies. Cautious investors can use reverse hedging positions [77]. Egg - **Market Information**: Egg prices were stable with a slight decline. Supply and demand data are reported [78]. - **Strategy View**: Egg prices are expected to be mainly stable with a slight decline in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the upper pressure in the medium - term [79]. Soybean Meal - **Market Information**: CBOT soybean prices rose. Supply, demand, and inventory data are reported [80]. - **Strategy View**: Soybean meal prices are expected to rise in the short - term and be sold on rallies in the medium - term [83]. Oil - **Market Information**: Palm oil export and production data are reported. Indian edible oil import data are reported [84]. - **Strategy View**: Palm oil may reverse the weak trend. It is recommended to observe the export and production situation [86]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Sugar prices oscillated. Supply, demand, and inventory data are reported [87][88]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to short after the rebound weakens. The supply - demand pattern is considered [89]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Cotton prices oscillated narrowly. Supply, demand, and inventory data are reported [90]. - **Strategy View**: Cotton prices have limited upward space. The supply - demand pattern is considered [91].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After a continuous rise, the recent hot sectors in the market have been rotating rapidly, with technology remaining the main market trend. Policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the medium - to - long - term strategy is mainly to go long on dips [4]. - The central bank's restart of treasury bond trading is short - term positive for the bond market sentiment. In the medium term, the bond market in the fourth quarter is mainly affected by fundamentals, the implementation time of the new fund fee regulations, and institutional allocation power. The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover [7]. - In the precious metals market, the Fed's loose monetary policy is expected to be implemented in a cycle. It is recommended to go long on silver on dips [8]. - For most metals in the non - ferrous metals sector, such as copper, aluminum, zinc, and lead, due to factors like supply disturbances and positive market sentiment, prices are expected to be strong or have support after corrections. For nickel, short - term observation is recommended, and for tin, short - term high - level oscillation is expected [11][13][16][17]. - In the black building materials sector, with the implementation of the Fed's loose policy and positive signals from the Sino - US meeting, the steel market demand is expected to recover. For iron ore, there is a risk of a phased decline. Glass is expected to remain weak, and soda ash will continue to oscillate narrowly [31][34][35][36]. - In the energy and chemical sector, rubber is recommended for short - term trading; for crude oil, a low - buying and high - selling strategy is maintained, and short - term observation is recommended; for other products like methanol, urea, etc., different strategies are given based on their supply - demand situations [52][54]. - In the agricultural products sector, for products such as hogs, eggs, and soybeans, different strategies are proposed according to their supply - demand fundamentals and market expectations [77][79][82]. Summary by Directory Macro - financial Stock Index - **Market News**: The US will cancel the 10% so - called fentanyl tariff on Chinese goods, and other trade - related measures will be suspended. The CSRC approves the IPO registration of Moore Thread Intelligence Technology. Five departments will improve duty - free shop policies starting from November 1. Tianji Co., Ltd. has full production and sales of lithium hexafluorophosphate [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After a continuous rise, the hot sectors rotate rapidly, with technology as the main trend. The medium - to - long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bond - **Market News**: On October 30, the Chinese and US presidents met. The Bank of Japan kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged. On Thursday, the prices of main treasury bond futures contracts changed to varying degrees [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The central bank's restart of treasury bond trading is short - term positive for the bond market. In the medium term, the bond market in the fourth quarter is affected by multiple factors and is expected to oscillate and recover [7]. Precious Metals - **Market News**: Gold and silver prices rose. The US - China trade negotiation released overseas risks, and the Fed's attitude towards the balance sheet expansion is positive for precious metals. The selection of the new Fed chairman is in progress [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to go long on silver on dips. The reference ranges for Shanghai gold and silver futures are given [8]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market News**: After the Sino - US leaders' meeting, the copper price declined. LME and domestic copper inventories changed, and the spot premium and discount situation also changed [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The copper price is expected to have strong support after a correction. The reference ranges for Shanghai copper and LME copper are given [11]. Aluminum - **Market News**: After the Fed's interest rate cut and the Sino - US leaders' meeting, the aluminum price declined and then rebounded. Domestic and overseas inventories changed, and the spot premium and discount situation was stable [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The aluminum price is expected to oscillate strongly. The reference ranges for Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum are given [13]. Zinc - **Market News**: The zinc price declined. Domestic and overseas inventories and the basis changed [14][15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The zinc price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term due to factors such as supply disturbances and positive market sentiment [16]. Lead - **Market News**: The lead price declined slightly. Domestic and overseas inventories and the basis changed [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The lead price is expected to run strongly in the short term due to factors such as supply - demand changes and positive market sentiment [17]. Nickel - **Market News**: The nickel price declined. The spot premium and cost of nickel changed, and the price of nickel iron was stable [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - term observation is recommended. If the nickel price drops significantly, long positions can be considered. The reference ranges for Shanghai nickel and LME nickel are given [19]. Tin - **Market News**: The tin price declined. The supply of tin ore was tight, and the demand was mixed [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The tin price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term. It is recommended to observe [20]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market News**: The price of lithium carbonate rose. The production and inventory of lithium carbonate changed [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamentals of lithium carbonate are expected to improve, but caution is needed. The reference range for the futures contract is given [22]. Alumina - **Market News**: The alumina price declined. The basis, overseas price, and inventory changed [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to observe in the short term. The reference range for the futures contract is given, and factors such as supply - side policies need to be focused on [25]. Stainless Steel - **Market News**: The stainless steel price declined. The spot price, raw material price, and inventory changed [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to observe due to the unresolved supply - demand contradiction and limited upward momentum [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market News**: The price of cast aluminum alloy declined. The position, trading volume, and inventory changed [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy is strong, and the supply is tight, providing support for the price [29]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market News**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil declined. The registered warehouse receipts, positions, and spot prices changed [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With the implementation of the Fed's loose policy and positive signals from the Sino - US meeting, the steel market demand is expected to recover [31]. Iron Ore - **Market News**: The iron ore price declined slightly. The position and basis changed [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: There is a risk of a phased decline in the iron ore price due to factors such as supply - demand changes and weak fundamentals [34]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market News**: The glass price declined significantly, and the soda ash price declined slightly. The inventory and position of glass and soda ash changed [35][36]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Glass is expected to remain weak, and soda ash will continue to oscillate narrowly [35][36]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market News**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon changed slightly. The spot price and basis changed [37]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The black sector is not pessimistic in the long - term. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are expected to follow the black sector's trend [39][40]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market News**: The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon declined slightly. The inventory and position changed [41][44]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate with market sentiment, and the supply - demand pattern of polysilicon is expected to improve [42][45]. Energy and Chemical Rubber - **Market News**: The rubber price declined. The opening rate of tire enterprises, inventory, and spot price changed [47][49][51]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - term trading is recommended, and a hedging strategy is proposed [52]. Crude Oil - **Market News**: The crude oil price declined slightly, and the prices of related refined oil products changed. US EIA data showed changes in inventory [53]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A low - buying and high - selling strategy is maintained, and short - term observation is recommended [54]. Methanol - **Market News**: The methanol price declined. The port price, inventory, and basis changed [55]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to observe due to the high inventory and weak demand [55]. Urea - **Market News**: The urea price declined slightly. The spot price and basis changed [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to go long on dips due to the relatively loose supply - demand pattern [57]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market News**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene declined. The cost, supply, demand, and inventory changed [58]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The styrene price may stop falling in the short term due to factors such as inventory reduction [59]. PVC - **Market News**: The PVC price declined. The cost, supply, demand, and inventory changed [60]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term due to the strong supply and weak demand [63]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market News**: The ethylene glycol price declined. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [64]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to short on rallies due to the expected inventory accumulation [65]. PTA - **Market News**: The PTA price declined. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [66]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to observe due to the short - term inventory accumulation and weak processing fee [67]. p - Xylene - **Market News**: The p - xylene price declined. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [68]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to observe due to the high load and lack of driving force [69]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market News**: The PE price declined. The upstream opening rate, inventory, and downstream opening rate changed [70]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE price is expected to oscillate at a low level due to factors such as high inventory and policy influence [71]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market News**: The PP price declined. The upstream opening rate, inventory, and downstream opening rate changed [72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PP price is under pressure due to factors such as supply - demand imbalance and high inventory [74]. Agricultural Products Hogs - **Market News**: The hog price fluctuated. The selling enthusiasm of farmers and the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream changed [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The hog price may decline in the medium term, and short - term rebound is possible. A hedging strategy is proposed [77]. Eggs - **Market News**: The egg price was mostly stable. The supply and market trading situation were normal [78]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The spot price may rebound slightly, and the futures price is expected to bottom out. It is recommended to observe [79]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Market News**: The CBOT soybean price rose. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventory, and the expected import situation changed [80][81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to short on rallies due to the high domestic inventory and loose global supply [82]. Oils and Fats - **Market News**: The palm oil export and production data in Malaysia changed. The domestic oil price oscillated, and the spot basis was stable [83]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The palm oil price is expected to oscillate weakly before the export situation improves [84]. Sugar - **Market News**: The sugar price declined slightly. The spot price was stable, and the import policy changed [85][86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to short after the rebound weakens due to factors such as supply - demand and import profit [87]. Cotton - **Market News**: The cotton price fluctuated slightly. The spot price rose, and the Sino - US trade negotiation had positive results [88]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cotton price may have limited upward space in the short term due to weak fundamentals [89].

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen is under pressure following the Bank of Japan's decision to maintain interest rates, influenced by reduced safe-haven demand and optimism regarding a potential US-China trade agreement [1] Group 1: Currency Market Impact - The euro/yen pair found support around 177.50 after two consecutive days of decline [1] - The Bank of Japan's decision to keep the short-term interest rate target in the range of 0.4%-0.5% challenges the yen [1] - The yen's weakness is expected to continue as market sentiment improves due to optimism surrounding US-China trade discussions [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The Bank of Japan has extended its pause on tightening monetary policy for the sixth meeting, following a 25 basis point hike in January [1] - Officials from the Bank of Japan are expected to discuss conditions for resuming rate hikes amid easing tariff pressures and rising domestic inflation [1] - The outlook is complicated by the new Prime Minister's support for loose monetary policy and resistance to early tightening [1] Group 3: US-China Trade Relations - US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are meeting to discuss a wide range of topics, including tariffs on fentanyl, rare earths, soybean trade, and TikTok agreements [1] - The discussions are anticipated to influence market sentiment and the performance of the yen [1]

Core Viewpoint - The selection of the new Federal Reserve Chair is heavily influenced by Trump and his Treasury Secretary, Bessent, indicating a shift towards more dovish monetary policy, with potential implications for market stability and the Fed's independence [1][13]. Group 1: Candidates and Their Positions - The five candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair are all dovish, advocating for significant interest rate cuts, contrasting with Powell's cautious approach [1][8]. - The candidates include Waller, Bowman, former Governor Warsh, White House economic advisor Hassett, and BlackRock's Rick Ried, all of whom align with Trump's desire for aggressive monetary easing [5][8]. Group 2: Bessent's Role - Bessent holds significant power in the selection process, having narrowed down the initial list of candidates from eleven to five, indicating his influence over the final choice [5][10]. - Despite not officially running for the position, Bessent's preferences will likely shape the policies of whoever is ultimately selected, as he has publicly called for a reduction in interest rates by 150-175 basis points [5][10]. Group 3: Market Implications - The potential appointment of a candidate aligned with Trump's views could lead to increased volatility in U.S. equity markets and fluctuations in the dollar's value, as the Fed's independence may be compromised [13]. - The market perceives that selecting Hassett would mean a direct alignment with Trump's policies, while Waller would maintain a facade of professionalism while still adhering to Trump's directives [9][10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After Powell's hawkish statement, the prices of gold and silver dropped in the short term. The release of the Fed's loose monetary policy expectations still requires a certain period. However, the Fed Chairman has made a statement on balance sheet expansion. This FOMC meeting sent a signal that the December interest rate cut is still uncertain while strengthening the subsequent monetary policy idea of "rate cut + balance sheet expansion." In the loose monetary policy cycle, it is recommended to buy on dips for silver, which will benefit more. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 880 - 966 yuan/gram, and that for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 10937 - 11690 yuan/kilogram [2]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Quotes - Shanghai Gold rose 0.69% to 910.92 yuan/gram, and Shanghai Silver rose 0.64% to 11265.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX Gold was reported at 3949.30 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX Silver was reported at 47.54 US dollars/ounce. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond was reported at 4.08%, and the US dollar index was reported at 99.13 [1]. - The Fed held an FOMC meeting early today. The tone of this meeting was a "hawkish rate cut." Powell's monetary policy statement was hawkish, and he also made a statement on the final balance sheet expansion [1]. Key Focus Directions of the FOMC Meeting - The statement on the subsequent interest rate path was more hawkish than market expectations. Powell stated that "a rate cut in December is not a certainty," and the lack of economic data could be a reason to pause interest rate adjustments [1]. - The discussion on the balance sheet was more dovish than market expectations in the medium term. Although the FOMC decided to end the balance sheet reduction on December 1st, which was later than market expectations, Powell clearly stated that the Fed would expand the balance sheet again. This was his first key statement on balance sheet expansion in this rate - cut cycle [1]. - The voting was more hawkish than market expectations. Fed Governor Milan voted against as expected and supported a 50 - basis - point rate cut. Governors Bowman and Waller did not support aggressive rate cuts. Hawkish voting member Schmidt voted against and supported keeping the interest rate unchanged at this FOMC meeting [2]. Gold and Silver Data Comparison (2025 - 10 - 29 vs. 2025 - 10 - 28) - **Gold**: COMEX gold's closing price (active contract) decreased by 0.67% to 3941.70 US dollars/ounce, trading volume decreased by 14.96% to 28.11 million lots, and open interest increased by 2.43% to 52.88 million lots. LBMA gold's closing price increased by 1.47% to 4006.70 US dollars/ounce. Shanghai Gold's closing price (active contract) increased by 1.05% to 910.88 yuan/gram, trading volume decreased by 25.73% to 47.79 million lots, and open interest decreased by 1.93% to 34.27 million lots. The closing price of AuT + D increased by 1.75% to 912.42 yuan/gram, trading volume decreased by 23.05% to 52.13 tons, and open interest decreased by 1.19% to 255.69 tons [5]. - **Silver**: COMEX silver's closing price (active contract) increased by 0.29% to 47.28 US dollars/ounce, and open interest increased by 1.75% to 16.58 million lots. LBMA silver's closing price increased by 3.74% to 48.18 US dollars/ounce. Shanghai Silver's closing price (active contract) increased by 2.62% to 11338.00 yuan/kilogram, trading volume decreased by 28.93% to 125.13 million lots, and open interest decreased by 1.93% to 68.89 million lots. The closing price of AgT + D increased by 3.23% to 11351.00 yuan/kilogram, trading volume decreased by 20.90% to 605.45 tons, and open interest decreased by 2.92% to 3609.146 tons [5].

Group 1 - As of the end of September, the net asset value of public funds in China reached 36.74 trillion yuan, marking a month-on-month increase of nearly 500 billion yuan, a new historical high [1] - The scale of equity funds increased by over 400 billion yuan compared to the end of August [1] - Central Huijin Investment and its asset management plans maintained their holdings in broad-based ETFs, providing continued support to the stock market, with ETF holdings growing by over 200 billion yuan in the third quarter, reaching approximately 1.55 trillion yuan [1] Group 2 - The Chinese stock market is attracting foreign investment due to technological development, improved China-US trade relations, and loose monetary policies [1] - Foreign investors are seeking diversified investments and assets decoupled from the US market, with Morgan Stanley reporting an increase in foreign purchases of Chinese stocks [1] - Demand for Chinese funds has significantly increased, with investment firms receiving about 30 inquiries from clients seeking opportunities in China, contrasting sharply with the low demand seen in 2023 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent rebound in London gold prices, surpassing the psychological threshold of $4000 per ounce, is attributed to market expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and the potential end of quantitative tightening, which has led to renewed buying interest in gold [1][3][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut, with a probability of 99.9% according to the CME Fedwatch tool [3]. - There is anticipation that the Fed will end its quantitative tightening, which involves reducing its balance sheet of approximately $6.6 trillion [3][4]. - Market analysts suggest that a shift towards a more dovish monetary policy from the Fed will support gold prices, as it may weaken the dollar and lower the holding costs of gold [4][7]. Group 2: Gold Market Dynamics - Since September, London gold has seen a strong increase of approximately 29%, reaching a historical high of $4381 per ounce on October 20, before experiencing a significant sell-off [4]. - The recent drop below $4000 per ounce was not unexpected, but this level remains a critical psychological barrier for investors [5]. - Analysts indicate that if gold stabilizes around the $4000 mark, it may attract buyers back into the market [5]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook for Gold - Despite short-term pressures, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive, driven by ongoing concerns about inflation and currency devaluation [6][7]. - Historical trends show that gold typically performs well in the early stages of a rate-cutting cycle, and current economic indicators suggest further rate cuts may occur [7]. - The World Gold Council reports that while gold ETF inflows have been strong, total holdings are still below historical peaks, indicating potential for future growth in gold investments [7][9].