Group 1 - The expectation of a gradual implementation of US fiscal policies is leading to a relatively weak performance of gold [1] - The recent US non-farm payroll data exceeding expectations has caused the market to abandon bets on a July rate cut, shifting focus to upcoming US tariff policies [1][2] - The geopolitical risks and uncertainties surrounding tariff policies are providing strong support for precious metal prices, with gold expected to experience high-level fluctuations in the short term [2] Group 2 - Optimism surrounding trade negotiations is enhancing risk appetite, which is putting pressure on gold prices [2] - Despite short-term pressures, the long-term outlook for gold remains bullish due to ongoing geopolitical events and uncertainties related to the trade war [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper prices showed a reverse V - shaped trend this week. With the divergence between ADP and non - farm payroll data, the overall interest - rate cut expectation fluctuated. There may be a moderate inventory build - up from July to August, and copper prices are expected to have some adjustment space in the third - quarter off - season [1]. - Aluminum supply increased slightly, with imports from January to May contributing to the growth. Demand is expected to weaken seasonally in July, with flat supply and demand. Pay attention to demand and low - inventory trading opportunities [1]. - Zinc prices fluctuated widely this week. Supply is expected to increase, demand is seasonally weak, and the strategy is to maintain a short - position and hold long domestic - short overseas positions [4]. - Lead prices rose moderately this week. Supply - side issues persist, demand is still weak overall, and prices are expected to oscillate between 17100 - 17500 next week [9]. - Tin prices fluctuated widely. Supply is affected by the Myanmar situation and domestic production cuts, demand is weak, and it's recommended to wait and see in the short - term and look for short - selling opportunities in the long - term [11]. - Industrial silicon production is expected to decline in July due to major company cut - backs. If production doesn't recover soon, the market is expected to oscillate [15]. - Lithium carbonate prices rose due to policy sentiment. In the short - term, demand is weak, supply is expected to be in surplus, and prices are likely to oscillate weakly [16]. - Nickel supply is high, demand is weak, and it's advisable to continue to focus on the contraction opportunity of the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [18]. - Stainless steel supply has seen partial production cuts, demand is mainly for essential needs, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [19] Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - This week, copper prices had a reverse V - shaped trend. Macro factors included the divergence between ADP and non - farm payroll data and the implementation of the "Big Beautiful" bill. Fundamentally, domestic inventory increased, and consumption was suppressed. There may be a moderate inventory build - up from July to August, and copper prices are expected to adjust in the third - quarter off - season [1] Aluminum - Supply increased slightly from January to May. Demand is expected to weaken seasonally in July, with flat supply and demand. Short - term fundamentals are okay, and attention should be paid to demand and low - inventory trading opportunities [1] Zinc - This week, zinc prices fluctuated widely. Supply is expected to increase as new capacity comes online and some smelters resume production after maintenance. Demand is seasonally weak both domestically and overseas. The strategy is to maintain a short - position and hold long domestic - short overseas positions [4] Lead - This week, lead prices rose moderately. Supply - side issues such as low scrap battery supply and high - cost raw materials persist. Demand is still weak overall, mainly for essential needs. Prices are expected to oscillate between 17100 - 17500 next week [9] Tin - This week, tin prices fluctuated widely. Supply is affected by the uncertain resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State and domestic production cuts. Demand is weak, and it's recommended to wait and see in the short - term and look for short - selling opportunities in the long - term [11] Industrial Silicon - In July, production is expected to decline due to major company cut - backs. If production doesn't recover soon, the market is expected to oscillate. The market expectation has shifted from inventory build - up to inventory reduction [15] Lithium Carbonate - This week, prices rose due to policy sentiment. In the short - term, demand is weak, supply is expected to be in surplus, and prices are likely to oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production of major projects [16] Nickel - Supply is high as pure nickel production remains at a high level and nickel bean imports increased in May. Demand is weak, and it's advisable to continue to focus on the contraction opportunity of the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [18] Stainless Steel - Supply has seen partial production cuts since late May. Demand is mainly for essential needs. Cost is stable, and inventory has slightly increased. Prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [19]

Group 1: Copper - This week, copper prices showed a reverse V-shaped trend. The ADP and non-farm payroll data diverged, causing the overall interest rate cut expectation to fluctuate. Trump's "Great Beauty" Act was implemented, and short-term broad fiscal policies may have a certain stimulating effect [1]. - Domestically, inventory has increased, and the start-up rate has declined significantly. It is expected to continue to decline during the off-season from July to August, and overall copper consumption by downstream industries has been somewhat suppressed [1]. - The spread between refined and scrap copper has widened this week, weakening the substitution effect. It is expected that there will be a moderate inventory increase from July to August [1]. - With the S232 investigation pending, there is still strong support below the copper price. A significant drop would require a macro black swan event, which is currently unlikely. During the off-season in the third quarter, the copper price is expected to have some adjustment room due to inventory accumulation and the decline in the refined-scrap substitution effect [1]. Group 2: Aluminum - Supply has increased slightly, with aluminum ingot imports providing an increment from January to May. In July, demand is expected to weaken seasonally, with aluminum product exports remaining stable and photovoltaic demand declining. Supply and demand are expected to be balanced [1]. - In terms of inventory, supply and demand are expected to be balanced in July. The short-term fundamentals are acceptable, and attention should be paid to demand. In a low-inventory situation, attention should be paid to inter-month spreads and reverse arbitrage between domestic and foreign markets [1]. Group 3: Zinc - This week, zinc prices fluctuated widely. In July, the domestic TC increased by 200 yuan/ton compared to June, and the imported TC increased slightly. Some smelters are undergoing maintenance in July, but new production capacities in the southwest and central China have been realized, and the zinc ingot output is expected to increase by more than 5,000 tons month-on-month [4]. - On the demand side, domestic demand has weakened seasonally. The spot premium in North China has turned to a discount, and those in East and South China have basically leveled off. Overseas, demand in Europe is weak, but some smelters face certain production resistance due to processing fees, and the spot premium has increased slightly [4]. - Domestically, social inventory has increased oscillatingly. Due to more factory pick-ups at the current price, the inventory accumulation of social inventory is slightly slower than expected. Overseas, LME inventory has decreased oscillatingly since May, mainly because more overseas zinc ingots have flowed into China [4]. - The strategy remains to short zinc and sell on rallies. The long domestic and short foreign arbitrage can continue to be held [4]. Group 4: Lead - This week, lead prices rose moderately. On the supply side, the scrap volume is weaker year-on-year. The expansion of recycling plants has led to a shortage of demand for scrap batteries. Although the low profit has improved this week, the operating rate remains low. The willingness of recyclers to sell at a high price has weakened [7]. - From April to June, the operation rate of concentrate mines increased, but the supply of domestic and foreign concentrates has tightened, and the TC is in a mess [7]. - On the demand side, battery inventory is high. This week, the battery operating rate rebounded, and the market has expectations for the peak season. The refined-scrap spread is -50, the willingness of recycled lead producers to sell has increased, but the reception is poor. There is speculation about cancelled LME warehouse receipts [7]. - From April to July, overall consumption during the off-season is weak, and orders only meet the rigid demand. This week's price increase is due to speculation about the improvement in battery stocking demand and overseas cancelled warehouse receipts, but in reality, downstream buyers only replenish their inventories for rigid demand at high prices [7]. - The profit of recycled lead has improved, but the operating rate has not increased. The willingness of scrap battery owners to sell at a high price is strong, and the price support behavior is weaker than in the previous upward cycle. The willingness of recycled lead producers to sell has improved, but the reception is poor. The refined-scrap spread is -50, and the lead ingot spot is at a discount of 40, mainly maintaining long-term orders [7]. - It is expected that lead will oscillate in the range of 17,100 - 17,500 next week. If the macro situation affects the lead price to remain above 17,200, it may trigger the risk of a price support cycle. In July, primary lead supply is expected to decrease slightly, and demand is weak [7]. Group 5: Tin - This week, tin prices fluctuated widely. On the supply side, the short-term resumption of production in Wa State, Myanmar, still needs negotiation. The processing fee for tin ore is at a low level, and the smelting profit is inverted. Some smelters in Jiangxi Province, China, have reduced production, and those in Yunnan Province are still struggling to maintain production. In June, the output of tin ingots decreased by more than 1 kt month-on-month [9]. - Overseas, except for Wa State, supply disruptions have basically subsided. The import volume from the Democratic Republic of the Congo in May exceeded expectations, mainly due to traders' inventories [9]. - On the demand side, the elasticity of solder is limited, and the growth rates of the terminal electronics and photovoltaic industries are expected to decline significantly. Domestic inventory has increased oscillatingly. Overseas consumption rush continues, but the LME inventory is at a low level, and the inflection point of inventory accumulation is gradually emerging [9]. - On the spot side, the supply of small-brand tin ingots remains tight. Most of the exchange inventory is high-priced Yunzi-brand tin ingots, and downstream buyers have no strong willingness to pick them up [9]. - In the short term, there are both disturbances in domestic raw material supply and expectations of consumption decline. It is expected that supply and demand will remain weak in the first half of the year. June and July may be the key stages to verify whether the tightness of tin ore will be transmitted to the tightness of tin ingots, and the bottom has strong support [9]. - In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see. In the long term, pay attention to shorting opportunities after the maintenance period [9]. Group 6: Industrial Silicon - This week, Hesheng's Xinjiang production area continued to reduce production, while those in Yunnan and Sichuan increased slightly. Overall, due to the significant production reduction of leading enterprises, the production in July and subsequent months is expected to decline from the previous expectation of a significant increase, and the supply-demand balance has shifted to inventory reduction [13]. - If Hesheng continues to maintain the production reduction, the spot price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate. Previously, against the background of the futures price hitting a new low, the basis strengthened rapidly, stimulating the long-suppressed speculative and replenishment sentiments of downstream industries. The de-stocking speed of warehouse receipts and non-standard products has been significant, and the spot price has been strong. The unexpected production reduction of leading enterprises has a significant marginal impact on the supply-demand balance, and there is a resumption of production in the downstream polysilicon industry [13]. Group 7: Lithium Carbonate - This week, lithium carbonate prices increased due to the promotion of the "anti-involution" policy. Spot transactions are mainly based on the 09 contract price. The price difference between upstream and downstream has led to average transactions. Downstream buyers settle at a later point in time, and there is inventory dumping at a reduced basis [13]. - The high price has stimulated the resumption of some production lines in Sichuan, and salt lakes continue to increase production. However, some factories have maintenance plans, and the hedging profit of externally purchased projects is abundant and production is ongoing [13]. - Downstream buyers are highly cautious and only maintain a safety inventory. Overall, inventory has increased this week. The willingness to deliver goods to the warehouse has improved, and the registered warehouse receipts have increased [13]. - In the medium and long term, there are many expansion projects for ore and lithium salt production capacities. If the operating rates of leading mining and smelting integrated enterprises do not decrease significantly, the lithium carbonate price will still fluctuate weakly. In the short term, downstream demand is weak, and the reduction in new energy vehicle consumer loans has not improved demand as expected [13]. - The lithium ore price has rebounded, and downstream buyers are cautious and replenish their inventories only for rigid demand. At the current price rebound, the profit of externally purchased smelters has improved, and they have resumed production. The profit of self-owned mines has increased, and the market clearance pace may be delayed [13]. - In the future, the supply elasticity is high. Large factories in Sichuan and previously maintained and technically improved enterprises are resuming production. Attention should be paid to the resumption time of the Jiuxiaowo project of CATL. Demand has not improved significantly. It is expected that the supply will continue to exceed demand next week, leading to inventory accumulation, which will put upward pressure on the price. The fundamental oversupply situation has not been significantly reversed. However, the "anti-involution" competition policy may boost sentiment, and risks need to be guarded against [13]. Group 8: Nickel - On the supply side, the production of pure nickel remains at a high level, and the import of nickel beans increased in May. On the demand side, overall demand is weak, and the LME premium has strengthened slightly [15]. - On the inventory side, overseas nickel plate inventory remains stable, while domestic inventory has decreased slightly. After the rumor that the Philippines' ban on raw ore exports has been abolished, concerns about supply disruptions in the ore market have eased. The short-term real fundamentals are average, and opportunities for narrowing the nickel-stainless steel price ratio can continue to be monitored [15]. Group 9: Stainless Steel - From the supply side, some steel mills have been forced to reduce production since late May. On the demand side, demand is mainly for rigid needs. In terms of cost, the prices of nickel iron and chrome iron remain stable [17]. - In terms of inventory, inventory has increased slightly in Xijiao and Foshan, and some exchange warehouse receipts have expired and been de-stocked. The overall fundamentals remain weak. After the demand fades, the pressure on the spot market increases, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [17].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The stock market risk appetite has gradually recovered, and it is recommended to go long on IH or IF stock index futures related to the economy and IC or IM futures related to "new quality productivity" on dips. For bonds, the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and it is advisable to go long on dips as interest rates are expected to decline in the long run. For precious metals, it is recommended to go long on silver on dips and stay on the sidelines for gold. Different metals and commodities have their own supply - demand and price trends, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed based on these [2][3][6][7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Stock Index - The previous trading day saw declines in major stock indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.44%, the ChiNext Index down 1.17%, etc. The trading volume of the two markets increased by 12.9 billion yuan to 1.4154 trillion yuan. There were positive policy news such as allowing certain Hong Kong - listed enterprises to list in Shenzhen and the MSCI China Index rising. The financing amount increased by 7.447 billion yuan, and the liquidity was relatively loose. It is recommended to go long on IH or IF stock index futures on dips and also consider going long on IC or IM futures [2]. - The basis ratios of stock index futures are provided. The trading logic is based on policy support, and the strategy is to buy IF long contracts on dips, with no arbitrage recommendation [3]. Treasury Bonds - On Tuesday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all had small increases. There were news about the "one - old - one - young" service and Sino - US economic and trade consultations. The central bank conducted 198.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 255.9 billion yuan. The short - term bond market is expected to be volatile, and it is advisable to go long on dips as interest rates are expected to decline in the long run [4][5][6]. Precious Metals - Shanghai gold rose 0.23% to 774.96 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver fell 0.43% to 8889 yuan/kg. COMEX gold and silver both declined. If the US fiscal bill is passed, the debt ceiling problem will be solved, and the Fed is likely to cut interest rates in the second half of the year. The expected expansion of the US fiscal deficit will ease before July 4, which is a marginal negative factor for gold prices. It is recommended to go long on silver on dips and stay on the sidelines for gold. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai gold and silver are provided [7]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Affected by Sino - US economic and trade negotiations and a stable US dollar index, copper prices oscillated downward. LME copper inventories decreased, and the cancellation warrant ratio increased. The domestic spot import loss expanded, and the scrap copper substitution advantage increased. The short - term copper price is expected to oscillate at a high level, and the reference operating ranges for Shanghai copper and LME copper are provided [9][10]. Aluminum - With the listing of cast aluminum alloy and the recovery of domestic black commodities, aluminum prices oscillated upward. The inventory of domestic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods decreased, and the processing fee of aluminum rods increased. Although the domestic commodity atmosphere has improved, it is still unstable. The decline in inventory will support aluminum prices, but the increase in US import tariffs on aluminum products will limit the upside of aluminum prices. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum are provided [11]. Zinc - Zinc ore is in an oversupply situation, and zinc smelter profits have increased again. Zinc ingots are expected to have a large increase in production, while terminal consumption is weak. After three consecutive sets of inventory accumulation data, zinc prices fell significantly. It is necessary to observe the actions of smelting enterprises at the 21,500 yuan/ton level. If there is no production control, zinc prices may continue to decline [12]. Lead - The price of lead rose slightly. The downstream battery enterprises are reducing prices for promotion, and terminal procurement is weak. The operating rate of primary lead smelting has increased, and the inventory of recycled lead products is high. Lead prices are expected to remain weak [13]. Nickel - The price of nickel oscillated. The supply of nickel ore is tight due to weather conditions, and the price of nickel iron has stabilized and rebounded. The supply of intermediate products is still tight, and the price of nickel sulfate is expected to strengthen. The short - term fundamentals of nickel have improved slightly, but it is still bearish in the long term. It is advisable to wait for a rebound to short. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai nickel and LME nickel are provided [14]. Tin - The price of tin decreased slightly. The supply of tin ore may decrease, and the processing fee is at a historical low. The operating rate of smelting enterprises is low. The downstream demand has not increased significantly, and the willingness to replenish inventory at low prices has decreased. The short - term tin price is expected to oscillate, and the reference operating ranges for domestic and overseas tin are provided [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The spot index of lithium carbonate was flat, and the futures price increased slightly. The contract position decreased, and the main contract will switch. There is a lack of marginal changes in supply and demand, and it is expected to oscillate. The reference operating range for the futures contract is provided [16]. Alumina - The price of alumina decreased slightly. The spot price remained unchanged, and the import window opened. The inventory of futures decreased. Although there are disturbances in the ore end, the overcapacity pattern is difficult to change. It is recommended to go short on rallies. The reference operating range for the main contract is provided, and risks such as policy changes in Guinea need to be noted [17][18]. Stainless Steel - The price of stainless steel decreased. The spot price also decreased, and the inventory increased. The market competition has intensified after the cancellation of the price limit policy by steel mills. The downstream is in a wait - and - see state, and the market transaction is light. The future market trend depends on whether the downstream demand can drive the digestion of inventory [19]. Black Building Materials Steel - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased slightly. The apparent demand for rebar decreased, and the inventory continued to decline. The supply of hot - rolled coil increased, and the demand remained weak with a slight increase in inventory. The export volume decreased this week, and the market has entered the traditional off - season. It is necessary to pay attention to tariff policies, terminal demand, and cost support [21][22]. Iron Ore - The price of iron ore decreased slightly. The supply increased, and the demand decreased. The inventory of ports and steel mills changed slightly. The short - term ore price is expected to oscillate, and it is necessary to pay attention to changes in supply and demand and macro - events [23]. Glass and Soda Ash - The spot price of glass decreased, and the production enterprises' inventory increased. The price of soda ash was relatively stable, and the supply decreased due to maintenance, but the demand also decreased. The mid - term supply of soda ash is still loose, and both glass and soda ash are expected to have a weak - oscillating trend [24]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - The price of manganese silicon decreased slightly, and the price of ferrosilicon was flat. The prices of both are in a downward trend, mainly due to overcapacity, weak demand, and a decrease in cost expectations. It is not recommended to bottom - fish blindly. It is necessary to pay attention to the support and pressure levels [25][26]. Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon decreased. The supply is still in an oversupply situation, and the demand from downstream industries is weak. The price may continue to decline, and it is recommended to wait and see [29][30][31]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - NR and RU oscillated and rebounded. The bulls are optimistic about rubber production cuts, while the bears are concerned about weak demand. The operating rates of tire enterprises decreased, and the inventory consumption was slow. It is recommended to take a short - term long or neutral approach and pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [34][35][38]. Crude Oil - The prices of WTI and Brent crude oil decreased, while the price of INE crude oil increased. The gasoline inventory in Fujeirah port increased, and the diesel inventory decreased. Due to the uncertainty of the US - Iran negotiation and the shale oil support effect, it is advisable to wait and see in the short term [39]. Methanol - The futures price of methanol decreased, and the spot price increased. The supply is expected to remain high, and the demand has improved slightly. The price may decline further, and it is recommended to short on rallies. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long on the PP - 3MA spread [40]. Urea - The futures price of urea decreased, and the spot price was flat. The supply is high, and the demand from compound fertilizer enterprises has decreased, but there is still top - dressing demand. The price is expected to have no obvious trend, and it is recommended to wait and see [41][42]. PVC - The price of PVC decreased. The cost is stable, the production is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. The export is expected to decline. The price is expected to oscillate weakly, but a rebound may occur if the export does not weaken as expected [43]. Ethylene Glycol - The price of ethylene glycol increased. The supply load was stable, and the downstream load decreased slightly. The inventory increased slightly. The industry is in the de - stocking stage, but the inventory de - stocking may slow down. There is a risk of valuation adjustment [44]. PTA - The price of PTA increased. The supply is in the maintenance season, and the demand is stable. The inventory is expected to continue to decrease, and the processing fee is supported. PTA will oscillate at the current valuation level [45]. Para - xylene - The price of para - xylene increased. The supply load increased, and the demand from PTA also increased. The inventory is expected to decrease slowly in June and enter the de - stocking cycle again in the third quarter. The short - term valuation is at a medium - high level, and it is expected to oscillate [46]. Polyethylene (PE) - The spot price of PE increased. The supply pressure will ease in June, and the inventory is decreasing. The demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate [47]. Polypropylene (PP) - The spot price of PP was stable. The supply is expected to increase significantly in June, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be bearish in June [48]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - The price of live pigs increased in most areas. The demand is general, and the support for pig prices is limited. The short - term pig price is expected to oscillate, and it is advisable to short on rallies for the far - month contract [50]. Eggs - The price of eggs was mostly stable with a slight decrease in some areas. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. The theoretical supply is still increasing, and the consumption is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies for the near - month contract and pay attention to the support of the far - month contract when the position is large [51]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The price of US soybeans increased slightly, and the domestic soybean meal price decreased slightly. The supply of soybean meal is loose, and the inventory is expected to continue to increase. The new - season US soybeans may oscillate at the bottom. It is recommended to pay attention to the cost range and the supply - demand situation for the 09 contract [52][53]. Oils and Fats - The export of Malaysian palm oil increased in the first 10 days of June. The export of Brazilian soybeans is expected to increase. The palm oil inventory in Malaysia increased in May, but the inventory in other countries is low. The price of oils and fats is expected to oscillate due to the balance of positive and negative factors [54][55][56]. Sugar - The price of Zhengzhou sugar futures decreased. The spot price was stable. The export of Brazilian sugar decreased slightly in the first week of June, and the sugar production in India is expected to increase in the 2025/26 season. The international supply situation has improved, and the domestic supply may increase. The sugar price is likely to decline [57][58]. Cotton - The price of Zhengzhou cotton futures increased slightly. The spot price increased. The planting and budding rates of US cotton are slightly lower than last year. The downstream operating rate has decreased slightly, and the supply and demand situation has improved marginally. The short - term cotton price is expected to oscillate [59][60][61].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed is certain to further cut interest rates in the second half of the year considering economic data trends and the path of U.S. Treasury issuance [2] - The expectation of loose fiscal policy in the U.S. has been fully reflected in the gold price since April. The expected expansion of the U.S. fiscal deficit will ease before July 4, which is a marginal negative factor for the high - level gold price. Silver prices will be stronger under the background of the expected marginal easing of the Fed's monetary policy. It is recommended to buy silver on dips and remain on the sidelines for gold prices. The reference operating range for the Shanghai Gold main contract is 756 - 809 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai Silver main contract is 8545 - 9500 yuan/kilogram [3] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs 1. Market Quotes - Shanghai Gold (Au) rose 0.23% to 774.96 yuan/gram, Shanghai Silver (Ag) fell 0.43% to 8889.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX Gold fell 0.18% to 3337.50 dollars/ounce, COMEX Silver fell 0.05% to 36.63 dollars/ounce. The U.S. 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.47%, and the U.S. dollar index was 98.96 [2] - A series of market data such as the closing prices, daily changes, and percentage changes of various gold and silver products (Au(T + D), London Gold, etc.) and major stock market indices (Dow Jones, S&P 500, etc.) are presented [4] 2. Gold and Silver Key Data Summary - For gold on June 10, 2025, COMEX gold closing price was 3344.80 dollars/ounce (down 0.06%), volume was 15.59 million lots (up 12.05%), and open interest was 41.59 million lots (down 4.94%). For silver, COMEX silver closing price was 36.66 dollars/ounce (down 0.68%), open interest was 16.33 million lots (up 10.70%), and inventory was 15402 tons (up 0.17%) [6] 3. Charts and Data Sources - Multiple charts are presented, including the relationship between COMEX gold price and the U.S. dollar index, the relationship between COMEX gold price and real interest rate, and the price, volume, and open interest of gold and silver in different markets. The data sources are WIND and the research center of Wukuang Futures [8][10][13] 4. Gold and Silver ETF Holdings - The total holdings of gold ETFs (SPDR) were 935.91 tons (down 0.31 tons, - 0.03%), and the total holdings of silver ETFs (SLV) were 14689.50 tons (up 32.51 tons, 0.22%) [4] 5. Gold and Silver Inner - Outer Spread Statistics - On June 10, 2025, the SHFE - COMEX spread for gold was 15.72 dollars/ounce, and for silver was 1.80 dollars/ounce. The SGE - LBMA spread for gold was 2.52 dollars/ounce, and for silver was 1.90 dollars/ounce [56]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - The stock market risk appetite has gradually recovered, and it is recommended to go long on IH or IF stock index futures related to the economy, or IC or IM futures related to "new productive forces" on dips. The short - term bond market will fluctuate, and it is advisable to enter on dips. The silver price will continue to be strong. Most metal prices will show different trends of shock, and some agricultural product prices will also fluctuate. [4][6][7] Summary by Category Macro - Financial Stock Index - The previous trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.43%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.07%, etc. The total turnover of the two markets was 1286.4 billion yuan, an increase of 134.4 billion yuan from the previous day. The CPI in May decreased by 0.2% month - on - month and 0.1% year - on - year. The PPI decreased by 0.4% month - on - month and 3.3% year - on - year. China's exports in May increased by 4.8% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 3.4%. [2] - The financing amount decreased by 3.116 billion yuan. The overnight Shibor rate rose 3.30bp to 1.411%. The 3 - year enterprise bond AA - level interest rate decreased 1.46bp to 2.9709%. The 10 - year treasury bond rate decreased 0.89bp to 1.6543%. The US 10 - year interest rate rose 11bp to 4.51%. [3] - It is recommended to go long on IF stock index futures on dips, and no arbitrage strategy is recommended. [4] Treasury Bond - On Monday, the TL main contract rose 0.35%, the T main contract rose 0.09%, etc. In May, the CPI decreased slightly, and the core CPI increased year - on - year. China's total import and export value in the first five months of 2025 increased by 2.5% year - on - year. [5] - The central bank conducted 173.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net investment of 173.8 billion yuan. The short - term bond market will fluctuate, and it is advisable to enter on dips. [6] Precious Metals - Shanghai gold rose 0.18%, Shanghai silver rose 2.07%. COMEX gold fell 0.24%, COMEX silver rose 0.45%. The US economic data is weakening, and the Fed's further interest rate cut is necessary, which will drive the silver price to be strong. [7] - It is recommended to maintain a long - term view on precious metals, and the silver price will be stronger. The reference operating range of Shanghai gold is 756 - 809 yuan/gram, and that of Shanghai silver is 8545 - 9500 yuan/kilogram. [8] Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - LME copper rose 1.01%, Shanghai copper closed at 79330 yuan/ton. The LME inventory decreased by 10000 tons, and the domestic social inventory was basically flat. China's copper imports in May decreased by 16.9% year - on - year. The copper price is expected to oscillate at a high level. [10] Aluminum - LME aluminum rose 1.28%, Shanghai aluminum closed at 20060 yuan/ton. The domestic aluminum inventory decreased, and the aluminum price is expected to rise limitedly. [11] Zinc - Shanghai zinc index fell 2.22%. The zinc ore is in surplus, and the zinc price may decline further if there is no production control. [12] Lead - Shanghai lead index fell 0.07%. The downstream consumption of lead is weakening, and the lead price is expected to be weak. [13] Nickel - Shanghai nickel fell 0.27%, LME nickel fell 0.81%. The nickel ore supply is tight, and the nickel price is expected to be short - term bullish but long - term bearish. [14] Tin - Shanghai tin rose 0.05%. The supply of tin ore may decrease, and the demand is weak. The tin price is expected to oscillate. [15] Carbonate Lithium - The spot index of carbonate lithium was flat, and the futures price rose 0.43%. The lithium salt production is high, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom. [16] Alumina - The alumina index fell 0.34%. The alumina production capacity is in surplus, and it is recommended to go short on rallies. [17] Stainless Steel - The stainless steel price fell 0.32%. The industry is facing high inventory and weak demand, and the price will be under pressure. [18] Black Building Materials Steel - The rebar price rose 0.201%, and the hot - rolled coil price rose 0.097%. The market is in the off - season, and the demand is weakening. [20][21] Iron Ore - The iron ore price fell 0.64%. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening. The ore price is expected to oscillate. [22] Glass and Soda Ash - The glass price fell, and the soda ash price is expected to be weak. The supply and demand of both are in a state of change. [23][24] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Manganese silicon rose 0.25%, ferrosilicon rose 1.37%. Both are in a downward trend, and it is not recommended to buy on dips. [25] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon price rose 2.54%. The industry has over - capacity, and the price may fall further. [29] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - WTI, Brent, and INE crude oil all rose. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. [33] Methanol - The methanol price rose. The supply is high, and the price may fall further. It is recommended to go short on rallies. [34] Urea - The urea price fell. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see. [35] PVC - The PVC price rose. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate weakly. [36][37] Ethylene Glycol - The ethylene glycol price fell. The supply and demand are changing, and there is a risk of valuation adjustment. [38] PTA - The PTA price fell. The supply is in the maintenance season, and the price will continue to decline in inventory. [39] p - Xylene - The p - xylene price fell. The supply and demand will change, and the price will oscillate at the current valuation. [40][41] Polyethylene - The polyethylene price rose. The supply pressure will ease, and the price will oscillate. [42] Polypropylene - The polypropylene price rose. The supply will increase, and the price is expected to be bearish in June. [43] Agricultural Products Live Pigs - The pig price rose slightly. The demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the near term and wait for short - selling opportunities in the far term. [45] Eggs - The egg price was mostly stable. The supply is increasing, and the price is expected to be short - term bearish. [46] Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The US soybean price fell slightly. The domestic soybean meal supply is increasing, and the price is expected to oscillate. [47][48] Oils and Fats - The palm oil production and export are increasing. The oil price is expected to oscillate. [49][50][51] Sugar - The sugar price fell slightly. The international supply is increasing, and the domestic sugar price may weaken. [52][53] Cotton - The cotton price rose. The supply is decreasing, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term. [54]

以下文章来源于思想钢印 ，作者思想钢印 思想钢印 . 雪球2020年度十大影响力用户，私募基金经理 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：思想钢印9999 来源：雪球 01 924后的 " 分手 " 上半年的股市可谓有惊无险 ， 赚钱机会多多 ， 但隔壁的商品市场就是完全两样的风景 ， 大部 分工业品都是 " 一路南下派 " ， 几乎被空头力量主导 ， 偶尔借停产检修或宏观利好反弹一把 ， 也成为 " 每涨卖机 " 。 国内上市的67个商品期货品种中 ， 主力合约价格年初以来下跌的有39个 ， 看上去没有那么惨 ？ 你再看上涨的28个品种中 ， 几乎都是金银和农产品 ， 工业品只有铜 、 铝 、 锡三个国际定 价的有色品种和尿素这个严格出口管制的农化产品 。 像焦煤 、 玻璃 、 甲醇 、 塑料 、 橡胶 、 纯碱 、 螺纹钢这一类重要的大宗商品 ， 都是跌幅巨大 。 上半年这一轮工业品的下跌 ， 实际上是在延续21年以来的商品熊市 ： 焦煤主力合约上半年跌了34% ， 从21年最高点跌了80% ； 玻璃主力合约上半年跌了25% ， 从21年最高点跌了68 ...

Group 1: Macro Economic Trends - In May, the implied probability of a U.S. recession dropped from 63% at the end of April to 29% by June 6, indicating improved market sentiment[1] - The Federal Reserve's implied rate cut expectations decreased from 4.1 times to 2.2 times, reflecting a more optimistic outlook[1] - U.S. Treasury yields rose significantly, with the 10-year yield increasing by 34 basis points to 4.51% due to concerns over fiscal sustainability and a rapid rise in Japanese bond yields[1][19] Group 2: Domestic Economic Developments - The domestic economy is transitioning from "old forces" to "new forces," with signs of slowing recovery in May, as retail sales growth fell to 5.1%[2][32] - The broad fiscal expenditure growth rate increased to 12.9% in April, providing strong support for the economy[2][46] - A series of financial policies were announced on May 7, including a surprise reserve requirement ratio cut, aimed at stabilizing market confidence[2][46] Group 3: Trade and Policy Uncertainties - The U.S. is facing uncertainties regarding tariff policies and tax reforms, with key decisions expected around mid-June[3] - The second round of U.S.-China trade negotiations is set to begin on June 9, focusing on tariff corridors and export mechanisms[4] - The potential adjustment of the fiscal budget by the National People's Congress in June is a critical area to watch for its impact on economic support[3]

Core Insights - The report highlights a positive shift in fiscal data, indicating an improvement in economic conditions and policy direction, with tax revenue growth returning to positive territory for the first time this year [6][9]. - The report emphasizes the recovery of domestic markets for specific companies, particularly in the medical sector, with significant growth potential in overseas markets [14][21]. Summary by Sections Total Research - Fiscal data released on May 20, 2025, shows a year-on-year tax revenue increase of 1.9% in April, marking the first month of positive growth this year [6]. - Non-tax revenue growth slowed to 1.66%, the lowest in nearly a year, indicating a significant easing of local government financial pressures [7]. - Land transfer revenue saw a 4.27% increase, the highest growth rate since 2021, suggesting a normalization in land sales [7]. Expenditure Side - General fiscal expenditure increased by 5.8% in April 2025, significantly above the planned target of 4.4% for the year, indicating strong fiscal spending [8]. - Government fund expenditures surged by 45%, the highest growth rate since 2022, reflecting a normalization of government spending [8]. Economic Recovery - The report suggests that the ongoing "wide fiscal" policy is crucial for driving economic recovery, with improvements in the business environment for enterprises [9]. - The anticipated acceleration in fiscal spending, particularly following the April 25 Politburo meeting's directives, is expected to further boost economic activity [9]. Company Insights: Mindray Medical (300760.SZ) - The company is poised for a domestic market recovery in 2025, with a projected revenue of CNY 367.26 billion in 2024, reflecting a 5.14% increase [14]. - The company plans to distribute dividends of CNY 6.79 billion and CNY 17.10 billion for 2024 and 2025, respectively, with a payout ratio of 6% and 65% [14]. - The overseas market is performing well, with the in-vitro diagnostics (IVD) segment showing a revenue increase of 10.82% [15]. Company Insights: Lifesun Pharmaceutical (002393.SZ) - The company received over CNY 300 million in dividends from its subsidiary, enhancing its financial position [18]. - Lifesun's revenue for 2024 is projected at CNY 13.36 billion, a 15.88% year-on-year increase, despite a decline in net profit due to adjustments in its marketing strategy [20]. - The company is focusing on a dual strategy of industrial operations and capital management to drive growth [20]. Company Insights: 3SBio (01530.HK) - The company has signed an agreement with Pfizer for the global development and commercialization of its PD-1/VEGF dual-specific antibody, SSGJ-707, which could yield up to USD 60.5 billion in milestone payments [21]. - SSGJ-707 has shown promising results in clinical trials, with plans for further studies in various cancer treatments [22]. - The company maintains a strong growth outlook, with projected net profits of CNY 23.28 billion, CNY 26.12 billion, and CNY 29.38 billion for 2025-2027 [21].

Group 1 - The banking sector is experiencing significant gains, with the CSI State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index rising by 0.85% and several constituent stocks showing notable increases, such as Shimao Holdings up by 5.71% and Shanghai Bank up by 3.66% [1] - The National Enterprise Dividend ETF has seen a substantial growth in scale, increasing by 18.98 million yuan over the past three months, ranking it in the top half among comparable funds [1] - The ETF's share volume has also grown significantly, with an increase of 16.80 million shares in the last three months, again placing it in the top half of comparable funds [1] Group 2 - Current economic policies are focused on stabilizing growth, with a combination of loose monetary and fiscal policies expected to have a profound impact on the banking sector's fundamentals in 2025 [2] - The fiscal policy is being strengthened to support social financing and boost economic expectations, which is likely to benefit cyclical sectors [2] - Although banks may face short-term pressure on net interest margins due to a broad decline in interest rates, regulatory measures against high-interest deposit solicitation are expected to provide support for interest margins in 2025 [2] - 2025 is anticipated to be a year of solidifying asset quality for banks, with improved risk expectations in real estate and urban investment properties underpinned by supportive policies [2] Group 3 - As of April 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index account for 15.18% of the index, with significant contributors including COSCO Shipping Holdings and Hebei Energy [3]