国债期货日报 | 2025-12-19 债市情绪不稳，国债期货大多收涨 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：10月27日，央行时隔近十个月宣布重启公开市场国债买卖操作，向市场释放了明确的稳 预期信号;10月30日，中美经贸团队达成三方面成果共识，一是中方将与美方妥善解决TikTok相关问题;二是美方将 暂停实施其对华海事、物流和造船业301调查措施一年，同时将暂停实施其9月29日公布的出口管制50%穿透性规则 一年;三是美方取消10%"芬太尼关税"，对中国商品24%对等关税将继续暂停一年。国务院关税税则委员会宣布在一 年内继续暂停实施24%的对美加征关税税率，保留10%的对美加征关税税率；12月8日政治局会议明确实施更加积 极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，释放宽货币信号。（2）通胀:11月CPI同比上升0.7%。 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 资金面：（3）财政：2025 年 1–10 月财政运行呈现"收入温和修复、支出节奏回落、基金收缩与专项债放缓并存" 的特征。一般公共预算收入同比增长 0.8%，税收连续八个月改善，增值税、个税和企业所得税均保持修复态势， 但非税 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints The bond market is oscillating between stable growth and easing expectations. The market is influenced by factors such as macro - policies, inflation, fiscal and financial conditions, and global trade uncertainties. In the short term, attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month [1][2][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - China's CPI (monthly) has a month - on - month change of - 0.10% and a year - on - year change of 0.70%; China's PPI (monthly) has a month - on - month change of 0.10% and a year - on - year change of - 2.20% [9]. - Social financing scale is 440.07 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.35 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.54%; M2 year - on - year is 8.00%, down 0.20% with a decline rate of 2.44%; Manufacturing PMI is 49.20%, up 0.20% with a growth rate of 0.41% [10]. - The US dollar index is 98.40, up 0.19 with a growth rate of 0.19%; The US dollar against the offshore RMB is 7.0390, up 0.001 with a growth rate of 0.02%; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.43, unchanged with a decline rate of 0.07%; DR007 is 1.44, down 0.01 with a decline rate of 0.45%; R007 is 1.51, unchanged with a decline rate of 0.31%; The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.63, unchanged with a growth rate of 0.00%; The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, unchanged with a growth rate of 0.00% [10]. 2. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market - On December 17, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL are 102.43 yuan, 105.84 yuan, 108.01 yuan, and 112.14 yuan respectively. The price changes are 0.01%, 0.06%, 0.10%, and 0.63% respectively [3]. - The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL are 0.084 yuan, - 0.076 yuan, - 0.053 yuan, and - 0.228 yuan respectively [3]. 3. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - From January to October 2025, the general public budget revenue increased by 0.8% year - on - year, and the general public budget expenditure increased by only 2% year - on - year [2]. - In November, the overall financial data was weak. The credit was still supported by bills and short - term loans. The medium - and long - term financing needs of residents and enterprises continued to decline, and the loans increased significantly less year - on - year. The social financing growth rate remained at 8.5%, mainly hedged by corporate bonds and off - balance - sheet financing [2]. - On December 17, 2025, the central bank conducted a 46.8 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% [2]. - The main term repurchase rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M are 1.275%, 1.428%, 1.471%, and 1.541% respectively, and the repurchase rates have recently declined [2]. 4. Spread Overview No specific data summary provided in the text, only mentions various spread trend charts such as the inter - period spread trend of treasury bond futures and the spread between spot bond term spreads and futures cross - variety spreads. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Charts show the implied interest rate of the two - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [37][38][45]. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Charts show the implied interest rate of the five - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract [49][53]. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Charts show the implied yield of the ten - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [56][58]. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Charts show the implied yield of the thirty - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract [63][69]. Strategies - Unilateral: The repurchase rate has declined, and the treasury bond futures prices are oscillating [4]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the decline of the 2603 basis [4]. - Hedging: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].

华安基金认为，展望后市，美联储仍处于降息大周期，若鸽派主席任选，美联储降息节奏或更加激进， 有望利好黄金。宽货币之外，美国也处于宽财政阶段，美债偿本付息压力下的信用风险延续，全球央行 持续购买黄金以分散外汇储备。货币财政双宽松的趋势下，仍看好黄金中长期配置价值。 黄金股午后上扬，截至发稿，赤峰黄金(06693)涨3.83%，报31.46港元；山东黄金(01787)涨3.48%，报 3.49港元；灵宝黄金(03330)涨2.9%，报18.08港元；紫金矿业(02899)涨2.73%，报33.94港元。 消息面上，12月美联储议息会议如期降息25bp，但联储内部对于后续降息节奏的分歧较大，本次利率决 议共有三个反对票，联储理事米兰认为应降息50bp，两位地方联储主席主张不降息。大摩最新研究报告 指出，预计降息将持续，美元指数将重新走弱。大摩认为，黄金有望继续获得宏观层面的支持，到2026 年第四季度金价或将达到每盎司4,800美元。 ...

宏观面：（1）宏观政策：10月27日，央行时隔近十个月宣布重启公开市场国债买卖操作，向市场释放了明确的稳 预期信号;10月30日，中美经贸团队达成三方面成果共识，一是中方将与美方妥善解决TikTok相关问题;二是美方将 暂停实施其对华海事、物流和造船业301调查措施一年，同时将暂停实施其9月29日公布的出口管制50%穿透性规则 一年;三是美方取消10%"芬太尼关税"，对中国商品24%对等关税将继续暂停一年。国务院关税税则委员会宣布在一 年内继续暂停实施24%的对美加征关税税率，保留10%的对美加征关税税率；12月8日政治局会议明确实施更加积 极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，释放宽货币信号。（2）通胀:11月CPI同比上升0.7%。 资金面：（3）财政：2025 年 1–10 月财政运行呈现"收入温和修复、支出节奏回落、基金收缩与专项债放缓并存" 的特征。一般公共预算收入同比增长 0.8%，税收连续八个月改善，增值税、个税和企业所得税均保持修复态势， 但非税收入拖累整体增速，收入完成进度略低于往年均值；一般公共预算支出同比仅增 2%，连续三个月放缓，主 要受上半年财政前置发力后劲不足以及基建类支出走弱影响，社 ...

Macro Overview - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China held a meeting to analyze and study the economic work for 2026, emphasizing a proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy [4][56] - The Central Economic Work Conference set the tone for next year's economic policy, focusing on maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and total debt levels while addressing local fiscal difficulties [4][5] - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates for the third time this year to a range of 3.50%-3.75%, with Chairman Powell stating that there is no preset path for monetary policy [9][10][56] Equity Market Insights - The December Federal Reserve meeting confirmed the expected rate cut, with a dovish overall stance and unchanged expectations for two more rate cuts in the future [2][57] - The market is expected to focus on the upcoming U.S. fiscal measures and the technical expansion of the balance sheet starting December 12, indicating potential re-inflation in the economy [2][57] - Domestic exports remain strong, and overall economic conditions are positive, with a recommendation to maintain a neutral position in equity strategies [2][57] Industry Strategies - The current trading logic is driven by structural demand led by external factors, with opportunities in overseas computing stocks and beta opportunities in non-ferrous metals [2][57] - The strategy suggests a "barbell" approach, focusing on sectors such as communications, non-ferrous metals, defense, machinery, and electronics, while being cautious in sectors like food and beverage, real estate, pharmaceuticals, construction, and computing [2][57] Fixed Income Market Dynamics - The bond market experienced a rapid rise due to favorable policy expectations, but confidence in the market remains unstable, leading to a significant pullback [3] - The yield on 30-year, 10-year, and 1-year government bonds changed by -1 basis point, closing at 2.25%, 1.84%, and 1.39% respectively [3] - The overall bond market is expected to remain under pressure as the equity market sentiment approaches a bottom, with potential for a pulse in equity market sentiment following the Central Economic Work Conference [3][50]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The Fed's decision to cut interest rates by 25bp and its dovish stance have improved short - term global liquidity expectations, but the market has not formed an upward force. The Central Economic Working Conference in China has set the tone for a loose fiscal and monetary policy in 2026, which stabilizes confidence. Different futures varieties show various trends and investment opportunities based on their own fundamentals and market conditions [3] Summary by Relevant Catalog Daily Selected Views - For SN2601, the market is expected to be strong; for V2601, there is still an expectation of over - supply, and the price continues to seek the bottom; for rb2505, the market is expected to be weakly volatile; for O1605, the market is expected to be strongly volatile [3] Full - Variety Daily Reviews Financial - **Stock Index**: After the Fed's interest - rate cut and the Central Economic Working Conference in China, the A - share market showed a pattern of rising and then falling. The market trading sentiment is not high, and it is necessary to be cautious about the risk of chasing high in the volatile range. It is advisable to appropriately lay out a bull spread at low prices. The expectation of a loose monetary policy at the end of the year may rise again, and the 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate may decline towards 1.75%, with a downward space of about 6BP. In terms of strategies, one can participate in going long on the T contract on dips and try to go long on the TL contract with a light position. Also, pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunity of the 2603 contract [3] - **Treasury Bonds**: After the Central Economic Working Conference, the expectation of a loose monetary policy has risen. In the short - term, the expectation of a loose monetary policy in the market may improve. One can participate in going long on the T contract on dips and try to go long on the TL contract with a light position. For the spot - futures strategy, pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunity of the 2603 contract [3] - **Precious Metals**: The short - term gold price is approaching the previous high, and it is mainly recommended to buy on dips. The silver market may enter the over - bought range, and it is necessary to be cautious about chasing high and reduce long positions in a timely manner. The platinum - palladium market follows the fluctuations of gold and silver, and it is recommended to maintain a low - buying strategy [3] - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The EC main contract fluctuates upward, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [3] Metals - **Steel**: Negative feedback affects the steel price to be weak. Pay attention to the decline opportunity of the January rebar - iron ore ratio. For the hot - rolled coil, close the January hot - rolled coil - rebar spread position [3] - **Iron Ore**: With the decline of hot - metal production and the increase of port inventory, the iron ore market turns weakly volatile, and it is viewed as bearish in the range of 730 - 780 [3] - **Coking Coal**: The price - cut range of local coal prices expands, and the Mongolian coal price drops. The futures price shows a weak decline, and it is viewed as bearish in the range of 950 - 1100. One can go long on coke and short on coking coal [3] - **Coke**: The second round of price cuts for coke in December has started, and the port trading price has led the decline. It is viewed as bearish in the range of 1450 - 1600. One can go long on coke and short on coking coal [3] - **Copper**: The Fed cuts interest rates by 25bp. Pay attention to the structural risk of overseas inventory. Hold long positions in the long - term, and the main contract should pay attention to the support at 90000 - 91000 [3] - **Alumina**: Market pessimism spreads, and there is no obvious marginal change in the short - term fundamentals. The main contract operates in the range of 2400 - 2700. Short - term traders can lay out long positions on dips to bet on an emotional rebound [3] - **Aluminum**: The social inventory continues to decline weekly, and the macro - fundamentals resonate, making the market run strongly. The main contract operates in the range of 21700 - 22400. Buy on dips [3] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The futures price rebounds slightly following the aluminum price, and the aluminum - alloy - aluminum price spread expands to 1000. The main contract operates in the range of 20700 - 21400. Conduct an arbitrage of going long on AD03 and short on AL03 [3] - **Zinc**: The US dollar is weakly running. Inventory depletion and the decline of TC boost the zinc price. The main contract should pay attention to the support at 23000 - 23200. Continue to hold the cross - market reverse arbitrage [3] - **Tin**: The fundamentals are strong, and the tin price fluctuates at a high level. Pay attention to the US interest - rate decision. Hold the previous long positions, and adopt a low - buying strategy on dips [3] - **Nickel**: After the macro - factors are settled, the upward space of the price is limited, and the market continues to decline. The main contract operates in the range of 116000 - 120000 [3] - **Stainless Steel**: The market fluctuates and declines slightly. The supply pressure eases slightly, but the inventory depletion is insufficient. The main contract operates in the range of 12400 - 12800 [3] - **Industrial Silicon**: The coking coal futures price continues to decline, and the industrial silicon price fluctuates. The main contract operates in the range of 8000 - 8800 [3] New Energy - **Polysilicon**: The inventory increases slightly, and the polysilicon futures price continues to rise. It fluctuates at a high level, and the main contract operates in the range of 50000 - 60000 [3] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Affected by news and strong capital, the market rise expands. It fluctuates strongly, and it is advisable to wait and see [3] Chemicals - **PX**: The medium - term supply - demand expectation is tight, and the PX price has support at a low level. Treat it as a short - term high - level fluctuation [3] - **PTA**: The supply - demand expectation is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term, and the driving force is limited. The PTA price mainly fluctuates at a high level in the short - term. Pay attention to the low - level positive arbitrage opportunity of TA5 - 9 [3] - **Short - Fiber**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and it follows the raw material price fluctuation. The unilateral strategy is the same as that of PTA, and try to reduce the processing margin on the futures price when it is high [3] - **Bottle - Chip**: In December, the supply - demand pattern of bottle - chips remains loose, and it follows the raw material price fluctuation. The processing margin is expected to be squeezed. The unilateral strategy is the same as that of PTA. The processing margin of the main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 300 - 450 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to reduce the processing margin in the short - term [3] - **Ethanol**: The cost side drops, dragging the EG price to decline in a fluctuating manner. Wait and see [3] - **Benzene**: The port inventory continues to accumulate, and the supply - demand is weak in the near - term and strong in the long - term. The short - term driving force of BZ2603 is weak, and it may follow the fluctuations of styrene and oil prices [3] - **Styrene**: The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and there is certain support at the bottom. The EB01 fluctuates and consolidates at a low level in the short - term [3] - **LLDPE**: The upstream reduces the price to sell goods, and the transaction improves. Wait and see [3] - **PP**: The spot price is stable, and the basis strengthens slightly. Pay attention to the expansion of PDH profit [3] - **Methanol**: The near - term basis is firm, and the transaction is okay. Try to reduce the MTO margin of the 05 contract [3] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply - demand still has pressure, and it continues to run weakly. Treat it bearishly [3] - **PVC**: The contradiction of oversupply has not improved, and the market further weakens. Treat it bearishly [3] - **Soda Ash**: The production is at a high level, and the oversupply is prominent. The market continues to weaken. Hold short positions [3] - **Glass**: The production - sales ratio declines, and the spot price in some regions weakens. The market continues to explore the bottom. Treat it bearishly [3] - **Natural Rubber**: Pay attention to the geopolitical conflict between Thailand and Cambodia. Wait and see [3] - **Synthetic Rubber**: After the interest - rate cut, the BR price rises, but the supply in the upper and middle reaches is abundant. It is expected that there is pressure above. Adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies for BR2602, and pay attention to the pressure around 10800 [3] Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: The US soybean market has no bright spots. Pay attention to the domestic soybean customs - clearance policy. The market is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term [3] - **Pig**: The demand for curing bacon provides support. Pay attention to the epidemic situation. It is in a bottom - grinding market [3] - **Corn**: The increase in supply is limited, and the market fluctuates. It adjusts in a fluctuating manner [3] - **Edible Oil**: The soybean oil price follows the rapeseed oil price to rise. The palm oil price has support at 8000. The P main contract tests the support at 8000 [3] - **Sugar**: The domestic sugar - pressing progress is good. It fluctuates at the bottom [3] - **Cotton**: The purchase of Xinjiang seed cotton is over. Pay attention to the pressure situation around 14000 [3] - **Egg**: The sales at high prices slow down, and the supply is still abundant. It fluctuates weakly. Pay attention to the support strength at the previous low [3] - **Apple**: Traders mainly make inquiries, and the sales of apples slow down. It may fluctuate around 9500 in the short - term [3] - **Jujube**: There is supply pressure, and the market fluctuates at a low level. It runs at a low level [3]

华西证券指出，如果将2025年的财政与货币政策节奏线性外推，债市内部或难形成明确的共识方向，市 场对通胀回升的担忧和"严监管"的推进，2026年债市可能延续25年偏弱的震荡格局，这也是当前市场较 为一致的预期。然而，一致性预期总是容易被打破。2026年可能变化的方向：一是宽财政向稳财政的转 变，如果经济增速目标下降，对应的财政赤字率也可能同步回落，由此对债券市场来说，政府债的供给 压力减轻；二是稳货币能否过渡为宽货币，进而推动债市表现超出预期。货币政策主动发力，可能需要 一些自下而上的风险事件发酵，如果没有外部因素的刺激，货币政策可能还是以稳为主。2026全年债市 行情的关键，是等待货币政策的实质性变化。从节奏上看，或是"前慢后快"，一季度（或春节前）蛰 伏，等待货币政策的变化，及消化潜在的通胀担忧，二、三季度出击，进而容易形成全年低点。 (本文来自第一财经) ...

1、财政部：2025年到期续作特别国债是原特别国债的等额滚动发行，仍与原有资产负债相对应，不增加财政赤字 财政部有关负责人就2025年到期续作特别国债发行相关问题答记者问，2025年到期续作的7500亿元特别国债将在全国银行间债券市场面向有关 银行定向发行，期限品种包括10年期4000亿元、15年期3500亿元。发行过程不涉及社会投资者，个人投资者不能购买。2025年到期续作特别国 债是原特别国债的等额滚动发行，仍与原有资产负债相对应，不增加财政赤字。评：宽财政的思路继续，券商普遍预计明年宽财政的整体格局 不会有显著变化，财政政策空间可能会小幅提升。 2、事关上市申请质量 港交所确认与香港证监会联名致函IPO保荐人 市场有传闻称，香港证监会、港交所于上周五(2025年12月5日)联名致函IPO保荐人，称旨在表达监管层对近期所递交的新上市申请中所观察到 的质量下滑、以及某些不合规行为的监管关切。对此，从香港交易所获悉，香港交易所确认与香港证监会就上市申请相关事宜联合致函保荐 人。香港交易所表示："为了推动资本市场的蓬勃发展，香港交易所致力确保新上市申请的审核能及时且严谨进行。同时，我们也积极与发行 人、保荐人及 ...

2025年，财政挑起稳增长的大梁，"加力"与"提速"成为关键词。总量上大幅加力，广义赤字水平较2024年同比提升2.9万亿元，刷新2021年以来的同比之 最；节奏上也明显提速，国债与地方债发行双双前置；财政的加力与提速。 2026年"宽财政"主线，大概率不变，赤字率可能会随经济目标调整而小幅下降，但特别国债与新增专项债规模或继续稳中带升，综合来看，2026年广义赤 字规模或将落在15.1-15.9万亿元区间，绝对规模较为可观，不过从同比变化视角来看，宽财政对于26年经济增幅的贡献或明显收敛，更多是以稳为主。节 奏上，财政或在一、二季度等经济高基数期着重发力，维持财政前置的趋势。 来源：郁言债市 2025，跌宕起伏 不同于2023-2024年的一帆风顺，2025年的债市可谓是极具挑战。长端利率的下行趋势早在年初便被打断，之后种种事件接力成为债市定价主线，多空双 方频繁上演"你方唱罢我登台"的戏码，激烈博弈之间，利率走势大起大落。 2025年同样是债市投资的变革之年，利率行情从"牛长熊短"切换至"牛短熊长"，获取收益的难度呈指数级上升。一方面，上一年末的抢跑行情，透支了来 年的收益空间；另一方面，传统的定价框架遭 ...

证券研究报告|宏观研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 10 日 [Table_Title] 2026 债市，或比预期好一点 [Table_Title2] 2026 年投资展望系列之四 [Table_Summary] ► 2025，跌宕起伏 不同于 2023-2024 年的一帆风顺，2025 年的债市可谓是极具挑战。 长端利率的下行趋势早在年初便被打断，之后种种事件接力成为债市定价 主线，多空双方频繁上演"你方唱罢我登台"的戏码，激烈博弈之间，利 率走势大起大落。 2025 年同样是债市投资的变革之年，利率行情从"牛长熊短"切换 至"牛短熊长"，获取收益的难度呈指数级上升。一方面，上一年末的抢 跑行情，透支了来年的收益空间；另一方面，传统的定价框架遭遇挑战， 货币政策对"弱现实"不再敏感，风险资产沉寂多年之后觉醒，成为影响 利率定价的关键变量。 这些变化的背后，宽财政、稳货币、强风偏、严监管、弱现实，成为 关键词。宽财政和稳货币，奠定了债市震荡的格局；强风偏和严监管，营 造了牛短熊长的氛围；弱现实，成为被市场忽视的变量。这些变量在 2026 是否会延续，未来的行情又会如何演绎？ 请仔细阅 ...