Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - The stock market risk appetite has gradually recovered, and it is recommended to go long on IH or IF stock index futures related to the economy, or IC or IM futures related to "new productive forces" on dips. The short - term bond market will fluctuate, and it is advisable to enter on dips. The silver price will continue to be strong. Most metal prices will show different trends of shock, and some agricultural product prices will also fluctuate. [4][6][7] Summary by Category Macro - Financial Stock Index - The previous trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.43%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.07%, etc. The total turnover of the two markets was 1286.4 billion yuan, an increase of 134.4 billion yuan from the previous day. The CPI in May decreased by 0.2% month - on - month and 0.1% year - on - year. The PPI decreased by 0.4% month - on - month and 3.3% year - on - year. China's exports in May increased by 4.8% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 3.4%. [2] - The financing amount decreased by 3.116 billion yuan. The overnight Shibor rate rose 3.30bp to 1.411%. The 3 - year enterprise bond AA - level interest rate decreased 1.46bp to 2.9709%. The 10 - year treasury bond rate decreased 0.89bp to 1.6543%. The US 10 - year interest rate rose 11bp to 4.51%. [3] - It is recommended to go long on IF stock index futures on dips, and no arbitrage strategy is recommended. [4] Treasury Bond - On Monday, the TL main contract rose 0.35%, the T main contract rose 0.09%, etc. In May, the CPI decreased slightly, and the core CPI increased year - on - year. China's total import and export value in the first five months of 2025 increased by 2.5% year - on - year. [5] - The central bank conducted 173.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net investment of 173.8 billion yuan. The short - term bond market will fluctuate, and it is advisable to enter on dips. [6] Precious Metals - Shanghai gold rose 0.18%, Shanghai silver rose 2.07%. COMEX gold fell 0.24%, COMEX silver rose 0.45%. The US economic data is weakening, and the Fed's further interest rate cut is necessary, which will drive the silver price to be strong. [7] - It is recommended to maintain a long - term view on precious metals, and the silver price will be stronger. The reference operating range of Shanghai gold is 756 - 809 yuan/gram, and that of Shanghai silver is 8545 - 9500 yuan/kilogram. [8] Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - LME copper rose 1.01%, Shanghai copper closed at 79330 yuan/ton. The LME inventory decreased by 10000 tons, and the domestic social inventory was basically flat. China's copper imports in May decreased by 16.9% year - on - year. The copper price is expected to oscillate at a high level. [10] Aluminum - LME aluminum rose 1.28%, Shanghai aluminum closed at 20060 yuan/ton. The domestic aluminum inventory decreased, and the aluminum price is expected to rise limitedly. [11] Zinc - Shanghai zinc index fell 2.22%. The zinc ore is in surplus, and the zinc price may decline further if there is no production control. [12] Lead - Shanghai lead index fell 0.07%. The downstream consumption of lead is weakening, and the lead price is expected to be weak. [13] Nickel - Shanghai nickel fell 0.27%, LME nickel fell 0.81%. The nickel ore supply is tight, and the nickel price is expected to be short - term bullish but long - term bearish. [14] Tin - Shanghai tin rose 0.05%. The supply of tin ore may decrease, and the demand is weak. The tin price is expected to oscillate. [15] Carbonate Lithium - The spot index of carbonate lithium was flat, and the futures price rose 0.43%. The lithium salt production is high, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom. [16] Alumina - The alumina index fell 0.34%. The alumina production capacity is in surplus, and it is recommended to go short on rallies. [17] Stainless Steel - The stainless steel price fell 0.32%. The industry is facing high inventory and weak demand, and the price will be under pressure. [18] Black Building Materials Steel - The rebar price rose 0.201%, and the hot - rolled coil price rose 0.097%. The market is in the off - season, and the demand is weakening. [20][21] Iron Ore - The iron ore price fell 0.64%. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening. The ore price is expected to oscillate. [22] Glass and Soda Ash - The glass price fell, and the soda ash price is expected to be weak. The supply and demand of both are in a state of change. [23][24] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Manganese silicon rose 0.25%, ferrosilicon rose 1.37%. Both are in a downward trend, and it is not recommended to buy on dips. [25] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon price rose 2.54%. The industry has over - capacity, and the price may fall further. [29] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - WTI, Brent, and INE crude oil all rose. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. [33] Methanol - The methanol price rose. The supply is high, and the price may fall further. It is recommended to go short on rallies. [34] Urea - The urea price fell. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see. [35] PVC - The PVC price rose. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate weakly. [36][37] Ethylene Glycol - The ethylene glycol price fell. The supply and demand are changing, and there is a risk of valuation adjustment. [38] PTA - The PTA price fell. The supply is in the maintenance season, and the price will continue to decline in inventory. [39] p - Xylene - The p - xylene price fell. The supply and demand will change, and the price will oscillate at the current valuation. [40][41] Polyethylene - The polyethylene price rose. The supply pressure will ease, and the price will oscillate. [42] Polypropylene - The polypropylene price rose. The supply will increase, and the price is expected to be bearish in June. [43] Agricultural Products Live Pigs - The pig price rose slightly. The demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the near term and wait for short - selling opportunities in the far term. [45] Eggs - The egg price was mostly stable. The supply is increasing, and the price is expected to be short - term bearish. [46] Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The US soybean price fell slightly. The domestic soybean meal supply is increasing, and the price is expected to oscillate. [47][48] Oils and Fats - The palm oil production and export are increasing. The oil price is expected to oscillate. [49][50][51] Sugar - The sugar price fell slightly. The international supply is increasing, and the domestic sugar price may weaken. [52][53] Cotton - The cotton price rose. The supply is decreasing, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term. [54]

以下文章来源于思想钢印 ，作者思想钢印 思想钢印 . 雪球2020年度十大影响力用户，私募基金经理 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：思想钢印9999 来源：雪球 01 924后的 " 分手 " 上半年的股市可谓有惊无险 ， 赚钱机会多多 ， 但隔壁的商品市场就是完全两样的风景 ， 大部 分工业品都是 " 一路南下派 " ， 几乎被空头力量主导 ， 偶尔借停产检修或宏观利好反弹一把 ， 也成为 " 每涨卖机 " 。 国内上市的67个商品期货品种中 ， 主力合约价格年初以来下跌的有39个 ， 看上去没有那么惨 ？ 你再看上涨的28个品种中 ， 几乎都是金银和农产品 ， 工业品只有铜 、 铝 、 锡三个国际定 价的有色品种和尿素这个严格出口管制的农化产品 。 像焦煤 、 玻璃 、 甲醇 、 塑料 、 橡胶 、 纯碱 、 螺纹钢这一类重要的大宗商品 ， 都是跌幅巨大 。 上半年这一轮工业品的下跌 ， 实际上是在延续21年以来的商品熊市 ： 焦煤主力合约上半年跌了34% ， 从21年最高点跌了80% ； 玻璃主力合约上半年跌了25% ， 从21年最高点跌了68 ...

Group 1: Macro Economic Trends - In May, the implied probability of a U.S. recession dropped from 63% at the end of April to 29% by June 6, indicating improved market sentiment[1] - The Federal Reserve's implied rate cut expectations decreased from 4.1 times to 2.2 times, reflecting a more optimistic outlook[1] - U.S. Treasury yields rose significantly, with the 10-year yield increasing by 34 basis points to 4.51% due to concerns over fiscal sustainability and a rapid rise in Japanese bond yields[1][19] Group 2: Domestic Economic Developments - The domestic economy is transitioning from "old forces" to "new forces," with signs of slowing recovery in May, as retail sales growth fell to 5.1%[2][32] - The broad fiscal expenditure growth rate increased to 12.9% in April, providing strong support for the economy[2][46] - A series of financial policies were announced on May 7, including a surprise reserve requirement ratio cut, aimed at stabilizing market confidence[2][46] Group 3: Trade and Policy Uncertainties - The U.S. is facing uncertainties regarding tariff policies and tax reforms, with key decisions expected around mid-June[3] - The second round of U.S.-China trade negotiations is set to begin on June 9, focusing on tariff corridors and export mechanisms[4] - The potential adjustment of the fiscal budget by the National People's Congress in June is a critical area to watch for its impact on economic support[3]

Core Insights - The report highlights a positive shift in fiscal data, indicating an improvement in economic conditions and policy direction, with tax revenue growth returning to positive territory for the first time this year [6][9]. - The report emphasizes the recovery of domestic markets for specific companies, particularly in the medical sector, with significant growth potential in overseas markets [14][21]. Summary by Sections Total Research - Fiscal data released on May 20, 2025, shows a year-on-year tax revenue increase of 1.9% in April, marking the first month of positive growth this year [6]. - Non-tax revenue growth slowed to 1.66%, the lowest in nearly a year, indicating a significant easing of local government financial pressures [7]. - Land transfer revenue saw a 4.27% increase, the highest growth rate since 2021, suggesting a normalization in land sales [7]. Expenditure Side - General fiscal expenditure increased by 5.8% in April 2025, significantly above the planned target of 4.4% for the year, indicating strong fiscal spending [8]. - Government fund expenditures surged by 45%, the highest growth rate since 2022, reflecting a normalization of government spending [8]. Economic Recovery - The report suggests that the ongoing "wide fiscal" policy is crucial for driving economic recovery, with improvements in the business environment for enterprises [9]. - The anticipated acceleration in fiscal spending, particularly following the April 25 Politburo meeting's directives, is expected to further boost economic activity [9]. Company Insights: Mindray Medical (300760.SZ) - The company is poised for a domestic market recovery in 2025, with a projected revenue of CNY 367.26 billion in 2024, reflecting a 5.14% increase [14]. - The company plans to distribute dividends of CNY 6.79 billion and CNY 17.10 billion for 2024 and 2025, respectively, with a payout ratio of 6% and 65% [14]. - The overseas market is performing well, with the in-vitro diagnostics (IVD) segment showing a revenue increase of 10.82% [15]. Company Insights: Lifesun Pharmaceutical (002393.SZ) - The company received over CNY 300 million in dividends from its subsidiary, enhancing its financial position [18]. - Lifesun's revenue for 2024 is projected at CNY 13.36 billion, a 15.88% year-on-year increase, despite a decline in net profit due to adjustments in its marketing strategy [20]. - The company is focusing on a dual strategy of industrial operations and capital management to drive growth [20]. Company Insights: 3SBio (01530.HK) - The company has signed an agreement with Pfizer for the global development and commercialization of its PD-1/VEGF dual-specific antibody, SSGJ-707, which could yield up to USD 60.5 billion in milestone payments [21]. - SSGJ-707 has shown promising results in clinical trials, with plans for further studies in various cancer treatments [22]. - The company maintains a strong growth outlook, with projected net profits of CNY 23.28 billion, CNY 26.12 billion, and CNY 29.38 billion for 2025-2027 [21].

Group 1 - The banking sector is experiencing significant gains, with the CSI State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index rising by 0.85% and several constituent stocks showing notable increases, such as Shimao Holdings up by 5.71% and Shanghai Bank up by 3.66% [1] - The National Enterprise Dividend ETF has seen a substantial growth in scale, increasing by 18.98 million yuan over the past three months, ranking it in the top half among comparable funds [1] - The ETF's share volume has also grown significantly, with an increase of 16.80 million shares in the last three months, again placing it in the top half of comparable funds [1] Group 2 - Current economic policies are focused on stabilizing growth, with a combination of loose monetary and fiscal policies expected to have a profound impact on the banking sector's fundamentals in 2025 [2] - The fiscal policy is being strengthened to support social financing and boost economic expectations, which is likely to benefit cyclical sectors [2] - Although banks may face short-term pressure on net interest margins due to a broad decline in interest rates, regulatory measures against high-interest deposit solicitation are expected to provide support for interest margins in 2025 [2] - 2025 is anticipated to be a year of solidifying asset quality for banks, with improved risk expectations in real estate and urban investment properties underpinned by supportive policies [2] Group 3 - As of April 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index account for 15.18% of the index, with significant contributors including COSCO Shipping Holdings and Hebei Energy [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the performance and growth of the State-Owned Enterprise Dividend Index and its related ETF, indicating a positive trend in the market for state-owned enterprises [1][2] - As of May 7, 2025, the State-Owned Enterprise Dividend Index (000824) increased by 0.68%, with notable gains from constituent stocks such as Everbright Bank (up 2.39%) and Qingdao Port (up 2.31%) [1] - The State-Owned Enterprise Dividend ETF (159515) saw a growth of 0.85%, with the latest price reported at 1.07 yuan, reflecting strong investor interest [1] Group 2 - The State-Owned Enterprise Dividend ETF experienced a significant increase in scale, growing by 3.2029 million yuan over the past two weeks, ranking it in the top half among comparable funds [1] - The ETF's share count also rose by 3.3 million shares in the same period, indicating robust demand [1] - The People's Bank of China announced a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, injecting approximately 1 trillion yuan into the market, which is expected to positively impact the banking sector [2] Group 3 - The top ten weighted stocks in the State-Owned Enterprise Dividend Index as of April 30, 2025, include COSCO Shipping Holdings and Jizhong Energy, collectively accounting for 15.18% of the index [3] - The index is designed to reflect the overall performance of high dividend yield securities from state-owned enterprises, focusing on companies with stable dividends and significant liquidity [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the 2025 fiscal budget proposal, highlighting a shift towards a more proactive fiscal policy with an emphasis on flexibility in deficit targets and a focus on key areas such as technology, security, and public welfare [1][2][3]. Group 1: Fiscal Policy Adjustments - The 2025 fiscal budget sets a deficit rate of "around 4%", allowing for potential adjustments mid-year, which is a departure from the rigid numerical targets used in previous years [1]. - The budget reflects a more pragmatic approach to nominal GDP growth estimates, revising the implicit nominal GDP growth rate down from 7.4% in 2024 to 4.9% in 2025 [4]. Group 2: Spending Focus - The fiscal spending for 2025 will increasingly target technology, security, and public welfare, with notable increases in allocations for education, diplomacy, national defense, and scientific research [2]. - In contrast, spending related to infrastructure, rural community development, and transportation is expected to decrease in importance [2]. Group 3: Revenue Adjustments - The budget anticipates a significant reduction in non-tax revenue, with a projected year-on-year decline of 14.2%, reflecting a strategy to lessen reliance on unsustainable revenue sources [3]. - Tax revenue expectations remain high, with positive growth targets set for most tax categories, excluding specific taxes like the tonnage tax on ships and vehicle purchase tax [3]. Group 4: Debt Issuance - The central government's bond issuance is projected to rise, with central government bonds accounting for 56.2% of total government bond issuance, marking a shift where central debt issuance surpasses local [5]. - This indicates a greater responsibility for counter-cyclical fiscal adjustments being placed on the central government [5]. Group 5: Challenges in Fund Revenue - The budget acknowledges potential difficulties in meeting government fund revenue targets due to the ongoing challenges in the real estate market and declining land use rights revenue [6].