Fiscal Overview - In FY 2026, the weighted average fiscal expenditure of major global economies is projected to increase from 33.2% of GDP in FY 2025 to 33.5%[6] - The deficit rate is expected to rise from 5.7% in FY 2025 to 6.0% in FY 2026, indicating a further expansion of fiscal policies[6] Economic Differentiation - Countries like China, the US, Eurozone, Japan, and South Korea will see an increase in fiscal expenditure as a percentage of GDP, while the UK, Canada, Australia, and Russia will experience a decrease[10] - The US will implement significant tax cuts under the "Great American Act," reducing fiscal revenue as a percentage of GDP, while other economies are expected to enhance fiscal revenue efforts[11] Investment Focus - Most economies are prioritizing fiscal investment in military and emerging industries, with the US increasing military and homeland security spending in FY 2026[12] - The Eurozone will boost defense spending, while Japan will introduce new defense-related taxes to support its military budget[12] Country-Specific Insights - **United States**: Fiscal expenditure is projected to rise from 22.8% of GDP in FY 2025 to 23.3% in FY 2026, despite tax cuts[23] - **Eurozone**: Fiscal expenditure is expected to increase from 51.5% of GDP in FY 2025 to 51.7% in FY 2026[2] - **Japan**: The fiscal expenditure is anticipated to rise from 19.9% of GDP in FY 2025 to a historical high in FY 2026[2] - **South Korea**: Fiscal expenditure will increase from 25.5% of GDP in FY 2025 to 26.6% in FY 2026, with a focus on emerging industries and national security[2] - **Canada**: Fiscal expenditure is projected to decrease from 18.4% of GDP in FY 2025 to 18.0% in FY 2026, while aiming to increase capital investment[2]

Group 1: Inflation Overview - The overall CPI for December 2025 in the U.S. was +0.31%, in line with expectations, while core CPI was +0.24%, below the expected +0.30%[3] - Year-on-year CPI increased by 2.68%, matching expectations, while core CPI rose by 2.64%, slightly below the expected 2.70%[3] - The weaker-than-expected core CPI was primarily influenced by declines in used car prices, a price war among telecom companies, and seasonal factors, which are expected to have a short-term impact[3] Group 2: Economic Projections - For Q1 2026, there are upward risks to U.S. non-farm payroll and inflation data due to fiscal and monetary impulses, as well as seasonal factors[2] - The fiscal impulse for Q1 2026 is estimated to boost U.S. GDP by 2.79%, largely due to the end of government shutdowns[2] - Cumulative interest rate cuts of 75 basis points since September 2025 are expected to stimulate the economy in Q1 2026[2] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the release of the weaker core CPI, market expectations for interest rate cuts increased, leading to rises in U.S. stocks and gold, while U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index fell[3] - However, asset prices later partially retraced the volatility caused by the monetary easing trades[3] Group 4: Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected policy actions from Trump, excessive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve leading to inflation rebound, and prolonged high interest rates causing liquidity crises in the financial system[4]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View Benefiting from the tightness of the spot market and the driving force of the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle, precious metal prices have been extremely strong recently. Silver still has room to strengthen in 2026, but in the first quarter, the Fed's monetary policy will slow down the rate - cut amplitude due to Powell's tenure, and there are certain negative factors at the macro - level. It is recommended to focus on the opportunity of long - allocation after the silver price experiences a periodic correction [1]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Silver Spot Driving Force Will Continue in the First Quarter of This Year - In 2025, the London silver price rose by 146.5%, reaching a historical high of $83.62 per ounce. The total holdings of major overseas silver ETFs increased from 26,050.7 tons to 29,362.5 tons, an increase of 3,311.8 tons, accounting for 10.35% of the annual silver output. The increase in ETF holdings led to a significant increase in spot demand, driving up the silver price. As of January 7, 2026, the silver spot premium reached 140 yuan per kilogram, and the overseas silver spot one - month implied lease rate was at a relatively high level [4]. - India's new silver mortgage loan regulations will be officially implemented on April 1, 2026. At the beginning of the year, the Indian silver premium has recovered. In October 2025, India's monthly silver import volume reached 1,785 tons, which was an important driving factor for the tightness of the London silver spot. It is expected that India's silver imports will support the demand side in the first quarter [5]. II. The Macro - environment in the First Quarter Will Have a Negative Impact on Precious Metals at High Prices, and Wait for Buying Opportunities after Price Corrections - The acceleration of the silver price has fully reflected the expected monetary policy of Hassett or Warsh's tenure. In the first quarter of 2026, the Fed under Powell's leadership will significantly slow down the pace of easing. The Fed's monetary policy stance is expected to tighten marginally, which is a negative factor for precious metal prices [15]. - The CME has raised the margin level for precious metal trading twice in the week of December 31. Similar margin increases in 2011 led to a significant decline in the silver price after it reached a historical high. Precious metals may face suppression in January 2026 and experience a short - term correction. However, this does not mean the end of the current precious metal bull cycle. The Trump administration has the motivation to further expand fiscal policy, and the Fed will enter a more aggressive interest - rate cut cycle after Powell leaves office. It is recommended to wait for a periodic correction and then allocate long positions [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Fed officials' dovish statements boost market expectations for loose monetary policy, leading to a short - term strengthening of gold and silver prices [1] - Precious metals may face short - term significant corrections due to the Fed's "inaction" in January next year, but this does not mean the end of the current gold and silver upward cycle. The Trump administration has a motivation for further loose fiscal policies, and the Fed will enter a more radical interest - rate cut cycle after Powell officially steps down. Currently, the short - term prices of gold and silver have fully reflected the expectations of monetary and fiscal policies. It is recommended to maintain a wait - and - see stance in precious metals trading, not to open new long or short positions, and to be aware of the risk of price surges followed by declines. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 940 - 1024 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 15340 - 20000 yuan/kilogram [2] 3. Summary by Related Content Market Quotes - Shanghai Gold rose 0.81% to 1008.74 yuan/gram, and Shanghai Silver rose 4.87% to 19820.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX Gold was reported at 4505.70 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX Silver was reported at 81.22 US dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was reported at 4.18%, and the US dollar index was reported at 98.59 [1] Key Data of Gold and Silver - For COMEX Gold on January 6, 2026, the closing price of the active contract was 4505.70 US dollars/ounce (up 1.03% from the previous day), the trading volume was 16.72 million lots (down 19.29% from the previous day), the position was 48.19 million lots (down 2.08% from the previous day), and the inventory was 1132 tons (unchanged). For LBMA Gold, the closing price was 4490.35 US dollars/ounce (up 0.76% from the previous day). For SHFE Gold, the closing price of the active contract was 1004.98 yuan/gram (up 1.00% from the previous day), the trading volume was 30.81 million lots (up 61.30% from the previous day), the position was 31.85 million lots (up 1.83% from the previous day), the inventory was 97.70 tons (unchanged), and the settled funds were 512.11 billion yuan (up 2.85% from the previous day). For AuT+D, the trading volume was 44.25 tons (up 0.55% from the previous day), and the position was 198.82 tons (down 4.66% from the previous day) [4] - For COMEX Silver on January 6, 2026, the closing price of the active contract was 81.22 US dollars/ounce (up 6.16% from the previous day), the position was 15.74 million lots (up 1.08% from the previous day), and the inventory was 13972 tons (down 0.07% from the previous day). For LBMA Silver, the closing price was 78.48 US dollars/ounce (up 4.54% from the previous day). For SHFE Silver, the closing price of the active contract was 19452.00 yuan/kilogram (up 6.60% from the previous day), the trading volume was 289.63 million lots (up 168.34% from the previous day), the position was 68.26 million lots (up 6.92% from the previous day), the inventory was 581.44 tons (down 13.16% from the previous day), and the settled funds were 358.48 billion yuan (up 13.98% from the previous day). For AgT+D, the trading volume was 876.64 tons (up 33.34% from the previous day), and the position was 2993.51 tons (up 1.77% from the previous day) [4] Price - Related Charts - There are multiple charts showing the relationships between gold and silver prices, trading volumes, positions, US dollar index, real interest rates, and other factors, as well as the near - far month structures and internal - external price differences of gold and silver [7][8][10][15][20][21][25][27][29][39][44][46][51][52][54]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The significant rebound of PMI in December 2025 may be related to the policy intensification in October, and the policy has shown obvious effects [4][5]. - The replenishment of inventory may start, which is expected to drive economic recovery [6]. - The overall rhythm of the change in manufacturing PMI is similar to that in 2016 and 2019, indicating that the economic cycle may have started [7]. - The core of the policy is to disprove the view of "less - than - expected economic recovery", and after repeated disproving, the market will become optimistic [8]. - Regarding the bond market, the target range of the 10 - year Treasury bond is 2 - 3%, with a central value of about 2.5% [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Event Review - In December 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 50.1% (previous value: 49.2%), up 0.9 pct month - on - month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.2% (49.5%), up 0.7 pct month - on - month; the composite PMI was 50.7% (49.7%), up 1.0 pct month - on - month. The manufacturing PMI rebounded significantly beyond seasonality and expectations, reaching a new high since April [4]. 3.2 Reasons for PMI Rebound - **Policy Intensification**: In October, the policy intensified with 50 billion yuan of policy - based financial instruments and 50 billion yuan of local debt balance limits. After the policy efforts, the PMI improved slightly in November and significantly in December [5]. - **Inventory Replenishment**: After continuous destocking from October to November, the raw material inventory was at a historical low in December, and inventory replenishment started, which may drive economic recovery [6]. - **Similar Historical Patterns**: The sudden rebound of PMI above 50% in December 2025 is similar to the situations in 2016 and 2019, indicating that the economic cycle may have started [7]. 3.3 Policy Logic - The policy aims to disprove the view of "less - than - expected economic recovery". In history, there were periods of economic decline, but the economy recovered after policy support, and the view was disproved. After repeated disproving, the market will form optimistic expectations [8]. 3.4 Bond Market View - **Fundamentals**: The view of "less - than - expected economic recovery" is disproved, and the wide - credit and wide - fiscal policies at the beginning of 2026 may accelerate the economic cycle recovery [9]. - **Monetary Policy**: If there is a wide - monetary policy, it may be a reduction opportunity, similar to the situation in 2025 [9]. - **Inflation**: Pay attention to whether the month - on - month increase of PPI can remain positive [9]. - **Funds Rate**: If inflation rises month - on - month continuously, there is a possibility of tightening funds, and the yield of short - term bonds will rise [9]. - **Real Estate**: Real estate is not used as a means of stabilizing growth this time and may bottom out after the recovery of various economic indicators and the rise of the stock market [9]. - **Bonds**: The target range of the 10 - year Treasury bond is 2 - 3%, with a central value of about 2.5% [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints -受股市行情带动，LPR保持不变，宽财政强于宽货币预期、配置盘犹豫与交易盘主导，同时美联储降息预期延续、全球贸易不确定性上升增加了外资流入的不确定性，期债震荡走跌 [3] -当前财政体现为稳总量、调结构、托底为主，短期对经济形成一定支撑，但更强拉动仍有赖于准财政资金和明年政策加码的进一步落地 [2] -在需求走弱与政策宽松预期并存背景下，后续稳增长仍更依赖货币侧发力 [2] Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators -物价指标方面，中国CPI（月度）环比 -0.10%，同比 0.70%；中国PPI（月度）环比 0.10%，同比 -2.20% [9] -经济指标（月度更新）中，社会融资规模 440.07 万亿元，环比 +2.35 万亿元，环比变化率 +0.54%；M2同比 8.00%，环比 -0.20%，环比变化率 -2.44%；制造业PMI 49.20%，环比 +0.20%，环比变化率 +0.41% [10] -经济指标（日度更新）中，美元指数 98.00，环比 -0.06，环比变化率 -0.06%；美元兑人民币（离岸）7.0081，环比 +0.006，环比变化率 +0.08%；SHIBOR 7天 1.56，环比 +0.11，环比变化率 +7.60%等 [10] 2. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market -展示了国债期货主力连续合约收盘价走势、各品种涨跌幅情况、各品种沉淀资金走势、持仓量占比、净持仓占比（前20名）、多空持仓比（前20名）、国开债 - 国债利差、国债发行情况等图表 [12][15][17][21] 3. Overview of Money Market Liquidity -展示了Shibor利率走势、同业存单（AAA）到期收益率走势、银行间质押式回购成交统计、地方债发行情况等图表 [26][28] 4. Spread Overview -展示了国债期货各品种跨期价差走势、现券期限利差与期货跨品种价差（4*TS - T、2*TS - TF、2*TF - T、3*T - TL、2*TS - 3*TF + T）等图表 [33][37][40][41] 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures -展示了两年期国债期货主力合约隐含利率与国债到期收益率、TS主力合约IRR与资金利率、TS主力合约近三年基差走势、近三年净基差走势等图表 [39][42][49] 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures -展示了五年期国债期货主力合约隐含利率与国债到期收益率、TF主力合约IRR与资金利率、TF主力合约近三年基差走势、近三年净基差走势等图表 [53][57] 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures -展示了十年期国债期货主力合约隐含收益率与国债到期收益率、T主力合约IRR与资金利率、T主力合约近三年基差走势、近三年净基差走势等图表 [60][63] 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures -展示了三十年期国债期货主力合约隐含收益率与国债到期收益率、TL主力合约IRR与资金利率、TL主力合约近三年基差走势、近三年净基差走势等图表 [67][70][73] Strategies -单边策略：回购利率回落，国债期货价格震荡 [4] -套利策略：关注2603基差回落 [4] -套保策略：中期存在调整压力，空头可采用远月合约适度套保 [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metals are in an accelerated upward phase, but may face short - term significant corrections in January next year due to the Fed "holding steady", yet this does not mark the end of the current upward cycle for gold and silver [4] - The Trump administration has the motivation to further loosen fiscal policies under the pressure of the mid - term elections, and the Fed will enter a more aggressive interest - rate cut cycle after Powell officially steps down [4] - Currently, the prices of gold and silver have fully reflected the expectations of monetary and fiscal policies. It is recommended to remain on the sidelines and not open new long or short positions. The reference operating range for the Shanghai Gold main contract is 940 - 1001 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai Silver main contract is 15666 - 18658 yuan/kilogram [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Categories Market Quotes - Shanghai Gold dropped 4.00% to 975.80 yuan/gram, and Shanghai Silver dropped 8.74% to 17237.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold was reported at 4344.70 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver at 71.20 dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.14%, and the US dollar index was 98.01 [2] - Trump considered suing Fed Chairman Powell and thought he should resign. The new Fed Chairman's candidate will be announced in January [2] Policy Expectations - The selection of the new Fed Chairman has led the market to price in an aggressive easing policy by the Fed next year. Although the current Fed officials only expect one 25bps interest - rate cut next year, the market's expectations for the Fed's monetary policy are focused on the new chairman's selection. Two Trump - camp members are likely candidates, and both support Trump's desired interest - rate cut policy. The Fed is likely to conduct more aggressive interest - rate cuts in the second half of next year, which has pushed the international silver price to a new record high [3] Data Summary of Gold and Silver - **Gold**: COMEX gold's closing price decreased by 4.64% to 4350.20 dollars/ounce, trading volume increased by 71.84% to 30.78 million lots, and open interest increased by 8.91% to 47.11 million lots; LBMA gold's closing price dropped by 3.21% to 4337.05 dollars/ounce; SHFE gold's closing price fell by 0.90% to 1007.18 yuan/gram, trading volume rose by 56.72% to 50.22 million lots, and the open interest decreased by 4.15% to 33.76 million lots [6] - **Silver**: COMEX silver's closing price decreased by 10.08% to 71.64 dollars/ounce, open interest decreased by 1.19% to 15.29 million lots, and inventory dropped by 0.13% to 13969 tons; LBMA silver's closing price increased by 3.40% to 74.64 dollars/ounce; SHFE silver's closing price fell by 0.62% to 18205.00 yuan/kilogram, trading volume rose by 70.96% to 493.06 million lots, and open interest decreased by 6.77% to 72.23 million lots [6] Price Structure and Spread - **Gold**: On December 29, 2025, the SHFE - COMEX spread was 28.52 yuan/gram (126.53 dollars/ounce), and the SGE - LBMA spread was 29.13 yuan/gram (129.47 dollars/ounce) [53] - **Silver**: On December 29, 2025, the SHFE - COMEX spread was 2288.16 yuan/kilogram (10.17 dollars/ounce), and the SGE - LBMA spread was 2569.09 yuan/kilogram (11.42 dollars/ounce) [53][62]

Group 1: Gold Market Overview - Gold prices continued to be strong, with international gold prices reaching a new historical high of $4,500, and domestic AU9999 gold returning to the 1,000 yuan mark. London spot gold closed at $4,533 per ounce (up 4.4% week-on-week), while domestic AU9999 gold closed at 1,007 yuan per gram (up 3.4% week-on-week) [1][8] - The U.S. GDP exceeded market expectations, with the annualized quarter-on-quarter initial value for Q3 at 4.3%, significantly higher than the expected 3.3% and the previous value of 3.8%. The increase was mainly driven by consumption and net exports, with inventory drag being eliminated [1][8] - Despite strong economic data affecting the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, there are concerns about weakening employment and consumption indicators for Q4, which may lead to a poor performance and a potential rise in rate cut expectations [1][8] Group 2: Economic Conditions and Gold's Role - Major economies like Japan, the U.S., and Europe are still in a phase of fiscal expansion, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability. Japan's Prime Minister announced a record budget of 122.3 trillion yen for FY2026, with government debt projected to be 229.6% of GDP by 2025, the highest among developed economies [2][9] - The depreciation of the yen amid recent interest rate hikes reflects market concerns about Japan's debt sustainability. In this context, gold's role as a store of value becomes increasingly important, with global central banks continuing to purchase gold to diversify their foreign exchange reserves [2][9] - Recent fluctuations in silver prices may impact gold prices, as silver behaves like a mix of "gold + industrial metal + trading commodity." The recent surge in silver prices has increased volatility risks, which could spill over into other precious metals, including gold [2][9] Group 3: Future Outlook - The Fed is expected to remain in a long-term rate cut cycle, and if a dovish chair is selected, the pace of rate cuts may become more aggressive, which would be favorable for gold [2][9] - The combination of loose monetary and fiscal policies in the U.S. continues to pose credit risks for U.S. Treasuries, and the trend of de-dollarization is likely to sustain central bank gold purchases. The outlook for gold's allocation value remains positive through 2026 [2][9] Group 4: Upcoming Signals - Key signals to watch for the upcoming week regarding gold ETFs include the release of the Fed's December meeting minutes [3][10]

Core Insights - The article presents a forecast for the financial market in 2026, emphasizing the importance of adjusting investment strategies in light of ongoing market trends and economic conditions [2][4]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - Emphasis on the unprecedented low interest rate environment and the importance of quality equity investments [3][4]. - Investors are advised to avoid the temptation of quick profits and to extend their investment horizons [5]. - The article highlights the cyclical nature of markets, suggesting that after a prolonged bull market, a period of consolidation or correction is likely [5]. Group 2: Key Trends for 2026 - The end of the global interest rate reduction cycle is anticipated, with varying impacts on stocks, bonds, and currencies [8][20]. - De-globalization remains a dominant trend, with fiscal policies being a common response to this phenomenon [9][30]. - The A-share market is expected to focus on relative value within asset classes, with a significant wave of fixed income products emerging [10][38]. - The Hong Kong stock market is projected to show increasing valuation advantages [11][60]. - The financial industry is expected to experience accelerated differentiation and consolidation [12][68]. - The wealth management sector is entering a new era of diversified asset allocation [13][71]. - The AI sector is entering a phase of significant differentiation, with a focus on who can build effective ecosystems [14][81]. - The trend of "anti-involution" is expected to continue, impacting investment strategies [15][90]. - A new era of outbound investment for Chinese companies is emerging, driven by global supply chain restructuring [16][94]. - Two significant trends are identified: accelerated asset securitization by local governments and societal K-shaped economic divergence [17][101]. Group 3: Market Implications - The anticipated end of the interest rate reduction cycle suggests that the valuation uplift from declining rates will slow, making profit-driven sectors more critical [26][25]. - The article discusses the expected impacts on various asset classes, including U.S. stocks, A-shares, and bonds, highlighting the need for strategic adjustments in investment positions [27][28][29]. - The A-share market is seen as a critical area for investment, with a focus on its relative value compared to other asset classes [43][48]. - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the core role of the stock market in economic development and its potential as a wealth reservoir [49][50].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the stock index, although there is uncertainty at the end of the year due to some funds cashing in on profits, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the medium - to - long - term strategy is mainly to buy on dips [2][4]. - For treasury bonds, in the short term, the bond market is expected to remain volatile under the background of weak domestic demand and institutional behavior disturbances. Attention should be paid to the repair of the supply - demand relationship at the end of the year and the rebound after the oversold [5][7]. - For precious metals, they are in an accelerating upward phase. There may be a short - term correction in January next year, but the upward cycle is not over. It is recommended to take profit on long positions when the hourly technical pattern weakens and not to open new long or short positions [8][9]. - For non - ferrous metals, most metals are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost changes, and market sentiment. Some are expected to rise further, while others need to pay attention to the impact of inventory and other factors on prices [11][12][13][14]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to remain in a bottom - range oscillation. Iron ore prices are expected to operate within an oscillation range. Glass and soda ash markets are expected to remain weak, and manganese - silicon and silicon - iron need to pay attention to market sentiment and cost factors [31][32][33][34]. - For energy chemicals, rubber prices are oscillating strongly with a neutral - to - long - term view. Oil prices are maintained with a low - buy and high - sell strategy. Methanol is expected to be sorted out at a low level. Urea is expected to oscillate and build a bottom. Other chemicals also have their own supply - demand and price trends [47][50][51][52]. - For agricultural products, the short - term strength of hog prices may continue, but a short - selling strategy is maintained after the near - month rebound. Egg prices may rebound slightly before the New Year's Day and then fall slightly. Other agricultural products also have their own price trends based on supply - demand relationships [74][75][76][77]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro - Financial Category Stock Index - **Market Information**: The central bank aims to improve the scale and proportion of medium - and long - term funds investing in A - shares. Rules for commercial rocket companies to list on the STAR Market are refined. The first batch of L3 - level autonomous vehicles in China start large - scale road operation. International gold and silver prices reach new highs [2]. - **Basis Ratio of Stock Index Futures**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different contract periods are provided [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Despite short - term uncertainty, the long - term strategy is to buy on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: The prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts change. National industrial enterprise profit data is released, and a fiscal work meeting is held, indicating a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026 [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducts 930 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 368 billion yuan [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The bond market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to the supply - demand relationship and rebound opportunities [7]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Domestic and international gold and silver prices rise. The expected expansion of US fiscal policy drives up the price of gold, and the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates aggressively next year, pushing up the price of silver [8][9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: There may be a short - term correction in January next year, but the upward cycle is not over. It is recommended to take profit on long positions and not to open new positions [9]. Non - Ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market Information**: The price of Shanghai copper breaks through 100,000 yuan per ton. The weekly inventory of copper at the SHFE increases, and the spot discount expands [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of copper is expected to rise further, but attention should be paid to the suppression of inventory accumulation on the upward trend [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The price of Shanghai aluminum rises. The inventory of aluminum ingots increases slightly, and the processing fee of aluminum rods decreases [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of aluminum is expected to rise further, supported by the rise of precious metals and copper prices [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The price of Shanghai zinc rises. The inventory of zinc ingots in the SHFE and the social inventory change [15][16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamentals of zinc are weak, but there is a risk of supplementary price increases following the sector [17]. Lead - **Market Information**: The price of Shanghai lead rises. The inventory of lead ingots in the SHFE and the social inventory change [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply and demand of lead are both weak, but the price is supported by the reduction of supply on the recycling side and low inventory [18]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The price of nickel rebounds slightly. The spot premium and the price of nickel ore and nickel pig iron change [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oversupply pressure of nickel is still large, but the short - term bottom may have been reached. It is recommended to wait and see [19]. Tin - **Market Information**: The price of Shanghai tin rises. The production of tin smelting enterprises and the demand of tin solder enterprises change [20][21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of tin is expected to fluctuate with market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see [21]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The price of lithium carbonate rises. The price of Australian lithium concentrate also rises [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The change in the pricing method and the initiative in long - term contracts are beneficial to the restoration of the spot valuation. It is recommended to wait and see [22]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The price of alumina rises. The spot price, overseas price, and inventory change [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of ore is expected to oscillate downward. It is recommended to wait and see and not to chase long positions blindly [24][25]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The price of stainless steel changes. The spot price, raw material price, and inventory change [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of stainless steel may rise further if the nickel ore supply quota is tightened. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to policy implementation [27]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy fluctuates. The inventory of recycled aluminum alloy decreases [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [29]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil change. The registered warehouse receipts, positions, and spot prices change [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Steel prices are expected to remain in a bottom - range oscillation. The demand is weak, and the winter storage intention is low [32]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The price of iron ore rises. The spot price, basis, and inventory change [33]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of iron ore decreases, the demand is stable, and the inventory accumulates. The price is expected to operate within an oscillation range [34]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The prices of glass and soda ash change. The inventory, positions, and spot prices change [35][37]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The glass market is expected to remain weak, and the soda ash market has limited rebound strength [36][37]. Manganese - Silicon and Silicon - Iron - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese - silicon and silicon - iron change. The spot prices and basis change [38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Attention should be paid to the risk of supplementary price increases in the black sector and the cost and supply factors of manganese - silicon and silicon - iron [40][41]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon change. The spot prices, positions, and inventory change [42][44]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate with market sentiment, and the price of polysilicon is expected to oscillate [43][45]. Energy Chemicals Category Rubber - **Market Information**: The price of rubber oscillates strongly. The tire start - up rate, inventory, and spot price change [47][48][49]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of rubber is expected to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to operate short - term and hold hedging positions [50]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The price of crude oil falls, and the prices of refined oil products rise. The inventory of Singapore ESG oil products changes [51]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see and test OPEC's export price - support intention [52]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot price and the main futures price of methanol change [53]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The methanol market is expected to be sorted out at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see [54]. Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot price and the main futures price of urea change [55]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of urea decreases, and the demand increases. It is recommended to buy on dips [56]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene change. The cost, supply, demand, and inventory change [57]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [58]. PVC - **Market Information**: The price of PVC rises. The cost, supply, demand, and inventory change [59]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic supply of PVC is strong and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies [60]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The price of ethylene glycol rises. The supply, demand, inventory, and cost change [61]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of ethylene glycol is high, and the inventory accumulates. The price is expected to compress the valuation [62]. PTA - **Market Information**: The price of PTA rises. The supply, demand, inventory, and cost change [64]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage after short - term destocking. It is recommended to pay attention to the callback risk and the opportunity to go long on dips [65]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The price of p - xylene rises. The supply, demand, inventory, and cost change [66]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PX is expected to maintain a small inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. It is recommended to pay attention to the callback risk and the opportunity to go long on dips [67]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The price of PE rises. The upstream start - up rate, inventory, and downstream start - up rate change [68]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [70]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The price of PP rises. The upstream start - up rate, inventory, and downstream start - up rate change [71]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply and demand of PP are weak, and attention should be paid to the change in the supply - surplus pattern at the cost end in the first quarter of next year [72]. Agricultural Products Category Hogs - **Market Information**: The price of hogs rises. The supply and demand in the market change [74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term strength of hog prices may continue, but a short - selling strategy is maintained after the near - month rebound [75]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The price of eggs is stable or rises. The supply and demand in the market change [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The egg price may rebound slightly before the New Year's Day and then fall slightly. It is recommended to short on rallies in the near - month and pay attention to the upper pressure in the far - month [78]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The price of CBOT soybeans falls. The domestic soybean meal price, trading volume, and inventory change [79]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The import cost of soybean meal has a bottom support, and the price is expected to oscillate [80]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The production and export of Malaysian palm oil change. The import of Indian vegetable oil decreases. The price of domestic oils and fats rebounds [81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to observe the high - frequency production and export data and operate short - term [82][83]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The price of sugar rises. The import volume of sugar and syrup changes. The production of sugar in Brazil and India changes [84][85]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The international sugar price may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest in February next year. The domestic sugar price may continue to rebound in the short term [86]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The price of cotton rises. The spot price, import volume, and inventory change [87][88]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be strong. It is recommended to wait for a callback and then go long [89].