当地时间周三，美股三大指数收盘涨跌不一，纳指跌 0.67%，标普 500 指数跌 0.24%，道指涨0.04%。 大型科技股普跌，英特尔领跌约 7%，谷歌、特斯拉、苹果、亚马逊跌超 1%，微软、英伟达、Meta、 AMD 小幅下跌。 纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨 0.33%，热门中概股涨跌分化，万国数据涨 8%，老虎证券涨超 3%，搜狐、 网易、金山云涨超 1%，小鹏、理想跌超 1%，百度跌超2%，极氪、小马智行跌超 4%。 01 7月会议上仅两位官员支持降息 同日公布的美联储 7 月会议纪要显示，在上月决定维持基准利率不变的会议上，仅有两位官员(主张降 息)投下反对票，并未获得其他同僚的公开声援。 纪要写道："几乎所有与会者都认为，在本次会议上将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%-4.50%是合适 的。" 美联储副主席鲍曼与理事沃勒则主张立即降息25个基点，以防范劳动力市场进一步恶化。这是自1993年 以来，首次有多位美联储理事在利率决策上公开唱反调，关税问题正在央行内部撕开一道越来越深的裂 痕。 然而，会议结束后不到48小时，美国劳工部发布的7月非农就业数据似乎印证了鲍曼和沃勒的担忧：当 月新增就业岗位远低 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's July 29-30 meeting minutes reveal increasing internal divisions regarding monetary policy, particularly concerning tariff impacts, inflation risks, and employment market conditions [1][2] - The decision to maintain interest rates in the 4.25% to 4.5% range was made with a vote of 9 to 2, marking the first time since 1993 that two Fed governors disagreed with the majority [1] - Officials expressed differing views on the impact of tariffs on inflation, with some advocating for more time to assess trade policy effects, while others argued that waiting for clearer signals is impractical [1] Group 2 - In the employment market, some officials noted low unemployment rates and near "maximum employment," while others pointed to slowing wage growth and reduced job creation, indicating a potential cooling in labor demand [2] - The minutes highlighted concerns about economic activity growth remaining subdued in the second half of the year, with actual income growth slowing potentially suppressing household consumption [2] - The upcoming employment report, which revised down non-farm payrolls by 258,000 for May and June, may exacerbate the Fed's internal concerns about economic slowdown [2] Group 3 - External political pressures complicate the Fed's internal divisions, with President Trump repeatedly calling for significant rate cuts and criticizing Fed Chair Powell's leadership [3] - Both Waller and Bowman, appointed by Trump, are viewed as potential successors, with Waller advocating for gradual rate cuts of up to 150 basis points [3] - Powell acknowledged the strong and logical viewpoints of Bowman and Waller, emphasizing that the meeting discussions were thorough [3]

Core Viewpoint - The focus of the market is on the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, which impacts the monetary environment, real estate, consumer finance, and the overall economic outlook [1][10] Inflation Data - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% month-on-month in July, with an annual rate of 2.7%. The core CPI increased by 3.1% year-on-year, remaining above the Fed's 2% target. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index is expected to rise by 0.3% in July, with an annual rate potentially reaching 3% [3][7] Employment Market - The employment market remains resilient, but monthly job growth has slowed, with the unemployment rate holding steady at a low of 4.2%. This combination of high inflation and slightly cooling employment makes the monetary policy path more delicate [7][10] Federal Reserve Meeting - Investors should pay close attention to the upcoming annual central bank meeting, as speeches may provide important signals regarding future policy direction. The market widely anticipates a 0.25 percentage point rate cut in September, with the possibility of a similar adjustment later in the year [7][10] Investment Strategy - The company advises that market volatility may increase until interest rate expectations become clearer. Real estate, bonds, and interest rate-sensitive assets will be directly affected. The dollar's performance will largely depend on changes in interest rate expectations, with potential downward pressure if stronger rate cut signals are released [10]

来源：中国金融信息网 新华财经北京8月19日电（王姝睿）全球市场本周情绪谨慎，投资者正密切关注杰克逊霍尔央行年度会 议，等待美联储主席鲍威尔将在8月21日至23日的年会上释放政策信号。分析称，如果美联储希望保留 政策选择的灵活性，鲍威尔在讲话中可能会采取更为谨慎的措辞。 新加坡星展银行报告表示，美联储主席鲍威尔很可能会平衡他的信息，一方面为避免劳动力市场恶化而 保留降息可能性，另一方面则会警告过度或快速的降息可能引发的通胀风险。 除杰克逊霍尔央行年会外，投资者还将关注周三公布的美联储7月会议纪要，以寻找更多政策线索。当 前，美国通胀水平仍高于既定目标，但有观点指出，这可能主要受到特朗普关税言论等因素的一次性影 响，而非长期趋势，如何评估通胀压力将是美联储面临的挑战之一。尽管就业市场数据显示出一些初步 疲软迹象，但整体而言仍保持着一定韧性。在此背景下，美联储在平衡通胀与增长之间的任务更为复 杂。巴克莱经济学家认为，美国联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）在9月降息问题上仍将存在分歧。"在我 们看来，主要问题是FOMC委员是否认为风险平衡正从通胀转向充分就业目标。" 罗素投资公司全球首席投资策略师艾特尔曼表示，鲍威尔将 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting will be a "watershed" for the Fed's policy direction. The market should focus on three key signals: labor market judgment, inflation risk statements, and emphasis on policy flexibility [2][36] - Powell's speech at the meeting is likely to maintain a "neutral to hawkish" stance, emphasizing "inflation resilience" and "policy flexibility" to guide the market to reduce bets on "consecutive rate cuts" [3] - The Fed's core goal of "balancing inflation and growth" remains unchanged. The game between the lagged impact of tariffs and economic downside risks will be the main line of future monetary policy [3] Summary by Directory Introduction: Policy Weathervane Significance of the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting - The Jackson Hole Annual Meeting is a key platform for the Fed to release major policy signals. The policy statements at this meeting often set the tone for subsequent monetary policies [4][7] Current Economic Background and Complexity of the Fed's Policy Environment Macro - economic and Policy Pressure Intertwined - The US economy shows multiple contradictory features. Inflation pressure is structurally differentiated, with core CPI showing more resilience. The labor market is cooling but still has some strength, and external policy pressure has increased significantly [8][11][13] - As of August 19, the market's probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September has reached 90%, and some institutions have even raised the probability of a 50 - basis - point rate cut [13] Fed's Internal Disagreement - The dovish camp is concerned about economic downside risks and employment market slowdown, advocating for near - term rate cuts. The hawkish camp emphasizes labor market resilience and inflation rebound risks, advocating maintaining high interest rates [14] Key Economic Data Analysis July US CPI Data - July CPI showed "overall stability and strong core." Energy prices declined, food prices were stable, while core services inflation was strong. Different commodity items were affected differently by tariffs and demand [15] July US PPI Data - July PPI showed an unexpected increase, mainly driven by services. The increase in PPI may not fully reflect fundamental inflation pressure, but it indicates potential upward risks for future CPI [22][23] Root Causes of the July CPI and PPI Divergence - The divergence between CPI and PPI reflects the complexity of inflation transmission, including a 1 - 3 - month time lag in cost transfer and possible statistical differences [25] Possible Scenarios of Powell's Speech and Policy Signal Analysis - Scenario 1: Absence from the meeting. This is a "passive neutral" strategy to avoid market volatility and leave policy decisions to economic data before the September meeting [27] - Scenario 2: Deliver a "non - substantial" speech. This is to maintain policy options' openness and postpone the final decision to the September meeting [28] - Scenario 3: Moderately release rate - cut signals. This requires further deterioration of employment data and significant escalation of external pressure from the Trump administration [28] Market Expectations and Future Monetary Policy Outlook Short - term Market Expectations and Risks - Market expectations of the number of rate cuts this year are around 3 times, but this is at risk of adjustment. US economic downside risks are accumulating, making short - term policy expectations more complex [34] Medium - to - Long - term Monetary Policy Path - The lagged impact of tariffs will be a key constraint on the Fed's policy in the next 1 - 2 years. In Q4 2025, inflation pressure may intensify, and in 2026, inflation is likely to fall, opening up room for significant rate cuts [34] Conclusion: Core Observation Points of the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting - The meeting will be a "watershed" for the Fed's policy. The market should focus on labor market judgment, inflation risk statements, and policy flexibility [36]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the anticipation of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, particularly following weak employment data in July, which has heightened market expectations for a rate reduction in September [1][2][3] - The two-year U.S. Treasury yield has seen a significant decline, dropping to approximately 3.75%, which is just above its lowest levels in recent months, indicating a market shift towards aggressive rate cut bets [1][3] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to align with market expectations during his speech at the Jackson Hole conference, with a strong likelihood of at least a 25 basis point cut in September, as market participants are betting on a 85% chance of this outcome [3][4] Group 2 - The upcoming employment report on September 5 will play a crucial role in determining the Fed's decision, with expectations that a weak report would support a 25 basis point cut [4] - Powell's tenure has been marked by a pragmatic approach to monetary policy, often waiting for clearer economic signals before making decisions, which has been evident in his past speeches at the Jackson Hole conference [5][6] - Despite external pressures, Powell has maintained a cautious stance, emphasizing the need to observe the impact of tariffs on inflation before making policy adjustments, which has led to a delayed response in the Fed's rate-cutting cycle [7]

Grouping 1 - The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference in 2025 will focus on the labor market amidst transformation, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell likely addressing inflation, rising producer prices, and a weak job market [1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.9% month-over-month in July, with service prices increasing by 1.1%, marking the largest increase since March 2022 [1][2] - Companies like Nike and Adidas are raising prices to offset additional tariff-related costs, indicating a trend among large retailers to pass on costs to consumers [4] Grouping 2 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% month-over-month in July, with a year-over-year increase of 2.7%, driven by rising energy service prices [5] - The energy sector has seen significant price fluctuations, with companies like Talen Energy and Vistra Energy experiencing substantial year-to-date price increases [5] - The employment market remains weak, with only 73,000 non-farm jobs added in July, and adjustments to previous employment data leading to concerns about future job reports [8][9] Grouping 3 - Powell may discuss the impact of artificial intelligence on the labor market, as major tech companies have made significant layoffs while investing heavily in AI [12] - The market anticipates a 90% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in September, which could benefit small-cap stocks most affected by tariffs [13]

Group 1 - The Jackson Hole meeting is highly anticipated, with Powell expected to focus on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy framework review rather than revealing the September interest rate decision [1][3] - Market expectations for a rate cut have driven stock prices up, particularly in interest-sensitive sectors, but any contrary signals from Powell could lead to market volatility [3][4] - Powell faces significant political pressure from the Trump administration, which has criticized his reluctance to cut rates and is reportedly considering potential replacements [3][5] Group 2 - The Federal Funds futures market indicates a probability of over 92% for a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with expectations for at least one more cut this year [4] - Recent stock price increases among major homebuilders, such as PulteGroup and Lennar, have outpaced the S&P 500 index, reflecting strong market confidence in a forthcoming rate cut [4][5] - However, this confidence has made the market vulnerable to sell-offs if Powell signals a more hawkish stance than anticipated [5] Group 3 - Economic data presents a mixed picture, with persistent inflation pressures indicated by a 0.3% month-over-month increase in the core CPI and a 0.9% rise in the PPI, the largest monthly increase in over three years [7] - Conversely, the labor market shows signs of cooling, with only 73,000 jobs added in July and significant downward revisions to previous months' data, leading to internal disagreements within the FOMC regarding rate cuts [7][6] - Powell's upcoming speech is seen as a critical moment to assert the Fed's independence and establish long-term guiding principles for monetary policy [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $37 trillion, growing at an unprecedented rate, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability and future economic implications [1][2][4]. Debt Growth and Fiscal Pressure - The U.S. national debt reached $37 trillion as of August 12, 2024, a significant increase from $36 trillion just months prior, highlighting a rapid acceleration in borrowing [3][4]. - The Peterson Foundation noted that the speed of debt accumulation is faster than ever, with the debt increasing by $1 trillion in approximately 173 days at the current daily growth rate [4]. - The debt ceiling was raised by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion under the "Big and Beautiful" act, which has contributed to a rapid increase in debt levels [4][8]. Impact on Households and Credit Ratings - If the national debt were distributed among U.S. households, each would owe approximately $280,000, with individuals facing a debt burden of about $108,000 [2]. - The rising debt levels have led to a decline in trust in U.S. fiscal management, with major credit rating agencies downgrading the U.S. credit rating due to deteriorating fiscal conditions [5]. Fiscal Structure and Spending - Mandatory spending on Social Security, Medicare, and interest on the national debt has surged from 34% of total federal spending in 1965 to 73% in 2024, limiting discretionary spending [6][8]. - Interest payments on the national debt are projected to reach $1.4 trillion by 2025, accounting for 26.5% of federal revenue [8]. Revenue Challenges and Tax Policy - The "Big and Beautiful" act is expected to reduce tax revenue by approximately $220 billion in the 2025 fiscal year, exacerbating the fiscal deficit [8][9]. - Despite a significant increase in customs revenue due to tariff policies, the overall impact on reducing the national debt is considered minimal compared to rising healthcare costs [9][10]. Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - There is a notable divide within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate policies, with some members advocating for rate cuts to alleviate debt burdens while others express concerns about inflation [11][12]. - Recent economic data has fueled expectations for potential interest rate cuts, with market predictions indicating a high probability of rate reductions in the coming months [14].

Market Insights - President Trump signed an executive order to ease commercial space regulations, aiming to simplify the launch permit environmental review process and eliminate "outdated, redundant, or overly restrictive" regulations on spacecraft [1] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen clarified that there was no pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, attempting to downplay her previous comments about a potential series of rate cuts [1] - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee called for caution in rate cuts until inflation is under control [1] Employment Data - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell to 224,000, a decrease of 3,000, remaining at the lowest level since November 2021 [2] - Continuing claims slightly decreased to 1.953 million, still hovering at high levels since 2021 [2] Inflation Metrics - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for July rose by 3.3% year-over-year and increased by 0.9% month-over-month, marking the largest monthly gain since June 2022 and exceeding expectations [3] Economic Growth - The UK's GDP for Q2 grew by 0.3% quarter-over-quarter and 0.4% in June, both surpassing expectations and indicating a strengthening economic recovery [4] Global Market Dynamics - The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 0.02% to 44,911.26 points, while the S&P 500 rose by 0.03% to 6,468.54 points, marking three consecutive days of record closing highs [6] - COMEX gold futures fell by 0.76% to $3,382.30 per ounce, and silver futures dropped by 1.47% to $38.04 per ounce [7] Commodity Prices - U.S. crude oil futures increased by 2.04% to $63.93 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures rose by 1.92% to $66.89 per barrel [8] - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 5.58 basis points to 3.724%, while the 10-year yield increased by 5.61 basis points to 4.287% [8]