被市场称为"新美联储通讯社"的《华尔街日报》记者Nick Timiraos指出，美国经济的多项关键指标正同 时向好，通胀降温，就业保持韧性，增长仍算稳健，"软着陆"正变得前所未有地接近，但距离盖棺定论 仍有差距。 政策与市场的下一步也更敏感。鲍威尔任期将于5月结束，若经济继续强劲，白宫可能要求降息，而特 朗普拟接棒人选沃什将以"巩固成果"还是"降息追求更宏伟目标"为导向，也可能重塑未来的政策路径。 通胀回落更像"快照"，2%目标仍未到手 不过，数据的"漂亮"并不等于任务完成。核心通胀仍接近3%，较去年4月触及的2.6%低点有所回升， Nick Timiraos指出，多位分析人士预计关税涨价从港口向商店传导后，今年通胀下行可能放缓，甚至停 滞在2%目标之上。 Timiraos在文中称，最新核心通胀读数在一定程度上受到去年秋季政府停摆造成的数据缺口影响，存 在"技术性压低"的因素，但它仍显示出今年年初并未重演过去三年那种破坏通胀回落叙事的价格压力。 与此同时，通胀结构仍不轻松。报告显示，住房成本这一此前推升通胀的最大驱动项已明显降温，但住 房之外的服务价格仍偏坚挺，且对关税更敏感的商品价格出现加速。 剔除二手车后 ...

Group 1 - The US stock market experienced a decline this week due to "AI panic trading" and increased probabilities of the Federal Reserve maintaining its policy unchanged after the January non-farm employment report [1] - Concerns over cost and profit margin pressures for technology companies have suppressed optimism, despite a generally favorable macroeconomic environment characterized by steady job growth and easing inflation [1] - The ability of technology stocks to stabilize and the strengthening of interest rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve will be critical for market recovery in the coming week [1] Group 2 - The retail sales data showed weakness, with December retail sales unchanged month-on-month, below the previous value of 0.6% and the expected 0.4% [2] - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model revised its forecast for Q4 GDP from 4.2% to 3.7% due to the retail sales performance [2] - The January non-farm payrolls increased by 130,000, significantly above the market expectation of 65,000, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.3% from 4.4% [2] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January rose by 0.2% month-on-month, lower than the expected 0.3%, and the year-on-year increase was 2.4%, also below the expected 2.5% [2] Group 3 - Economic signals are mixed, with the January employment report contradicting the narrative of stagnant hiring, while retail sales data challenges the view of strong consumer spending [3] - The flattening of the US Treasury yield curve indicates a significant drop in long-term yields, with the 2-year yield approaching 3.40%, and the probability of two rate cuts this year nearing 90% [3] - The inflation report shows encouraging signs, particularly with housing prices slowing and tariff-related impacts diminishing, which may lead the Federal Reserve to consider rate cuts later this year [3] Group 4 - The recent signals are unlikely to persist, as the decline in retail sales may be a temporary pause following strong spending, and the sustainability of the significant increase in non-farm employment is questionable [4] - The cooling inflation data provides a favorable environment for the Federal Reserve to potentially restart rate cuts later in the year [4] Group 5 - The US stock indices fell over the past week, with investors continuing to reduce exposure to technology sectors, and the S&P 500 index turned negative for the year [5] - Concerns regarding the impact of new AI tools on specific industries have led to market volatility, initially affecting software and financial stocks, and later spreading to real estate and logistics sectors [5] Group 6 - The financial sector experienced the largest decline this week, down 4.8%, followed by communication services down 3.5%, and both non-essential consumer goods and technology sectors fell over 2% [6] - Utility stocks surged by 7.1% due to safe-haven inflows, while real estate and materials rose over 3% [6] Group 7 - The launch of AI tools by companies like Altruist and Anthropic has heightened fears of job displacement, leading to a cautious sentiment among traders regarding US stock exposure [7] - The sell-off pressure in the market is primarily driven by concerns over the disruptive effects of AI, affecting not only software stocks but also real estate and logistics [7] Group 8 - The significant decline in US Treasury yields typically serves as a bullish catalyst for the stock market, but bearish confirmation signals in the Nasdaq indicate potential further downside risks [8] - The volatility index (VIX) remains around 20, suggesting that the market is seeking protective measures and may maintain higher-than-average volatility in the short term [8]

古尔斯比与美联储部分同僚近期均表示，当前美国就业市场已呈现出更为稳定的特征，就业端的风险已得到阶段性缓和。本周稍早公布的报告也印证了这一 点——1月份美国招聘活动保持平稳，进一步强化了政策制定者对就业市场稳定的判断。 古尔斯比反复表达了对服务价格通胀的担忧，而这一担忧也得到了同期数据的支撑。就在其表态当天早些时候公布的数据显示，1月份美国服务类价格再度 出现加速上涨的态势，成为通胀难以快速回落的重要原因。尽管当月整体物价同比上涨2.4%，涨幅略低于市场预期，但这种结构性的通胀压力并未得到明 显缓解，仍对政策调整形成制约。 从美联储近期的政策动作来看，上月的议息会议已决定维持当前利率水平不变。回顾过往，美联储在2025年末曾连续三次降息，核心目的是应对当时劳动力 市场走弱的迹象，为经济稳定提供支撑。而如今，政策逻辑已发生微妙变化。 近日，美国芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比的公开表态，为市场解读美联储后续货币政策走向提供了关键线索。其核心观点明确：美联储并非没有进一步降息的可 能，但这一动作的前提，是通胀必须明确回归向2%目标回落的轨道，而目前这一条件尚未满足。 古尔斯比在周五接受采访时坦言，从政策空间来看，利率仍有下调 ...

格隆汇2月13日｜高盛资产管理公司多行业固定收益投资主管Lindsay Rosner表示，鉴于1月CPI数据并未 如担忧那般强劲，美联储的"正常化"降息路径似乎更加清晰。这将取决于就业市场是否继续呈现改善迹 象，因为FOMC对劳动力市场疲软的敏感度很高。我们仍然预期美联储今年将降息两次，下一次降息将 在6月份进行。 ...

Core Insights - The January CPI report indicates a year-over-year increase of 2.4%, which is lower than previous values and market expectations [1] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose by 2.5% year-over-year, aligning with expectations [1] - The non-farm payroll report earlier this week showed that January job growth exceeded expectations, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.3% [1] Economic Context - Despite the positive signs of slowing inflation and a stable job market, the Federal Reserve faces a delicate balance in its final months under Chairman Powell's leadership: controlling inflation without harming the labor market [1] - Aggressive interest rate hikes successfully curbed the price surge in 2022, but as inflation eases and the job market cools, the Federal Reserve has cut rates by nearly 2 percentage points since summer 2024 and paused in January [1] - Economists widely expect inflation to decline further by 2026 as signs of reduced price pressures become more evident [1]

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.02.13」 贵金属市场周报 非农数据强劲增长，金银价格延续震荡 作者： 研究员 廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 联系电话：0595-86778969 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业供需情况 4、宏观及期权 来源：瑞达期货研究院 3 「 期现市场」 非农数据意外录得大幅增长，贵金属市场本周震荡加剧 「 周度要点小结」 ◆ 行情回顾：本周，美国就业数据韧性削弱市场降息押注，地缘局势出现缓和迹象，全球贵金属市场震荡 加剧。宏观数据方面，市场围绕非农数据解读的分歧加剧，美国1月非农就业新增人数创去年4月以来最 大增幅，失业率意外下降，劳动参与率与薪资增速亦有提升，显示劳动力市场在经历疲弱一年后展现短 期韧性，但年度基准修正大幅下修2025年全年就业规模，大幅暴露去年统计失真与就业基础实则疲软的 态势。美国上周初请失业金人数回落5000人至22.7万人，前一周续请失业金人数增加2.1万人至186.2万， 市场预期185万人。美联储官员近期就降息的表态，核心仍锚定于通胀反弹风险与就业市场降温趋势之间 的权 ...

Core Viewpoint - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. decreased slightly last week after a spike due to severe winter weather, indicating a potential stabilization in the job market [1][3][4]. Group 1: Jobless Claims Data - For the week ending February 7, the number of initial jobless claims fell by 5,000 to 227,000, while the market expectation was a median of 223,000 [1][3]. - The four-week moving average of new claims rose to 219,500, the highest level since November [2][5]. Group 2: Employment Market Insights - The number of continuing claims rose to 1.86 million in the previous week, reflecting fluctuations typically seen during holidays and severe weather [4]. - The decline in claims suggests that businesses and schools returned to normal operations following the winter storm, with states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Missouri seeing significant drops in claims [4]. - Despite announcements of layoffs from large companies like Amazon and UPS, recent data indicates that these layoffs have not yet led to widespread job losses [4]. - Other indicators, including a recent government employment report, show that non-farm payrolls increased in January at the highest rate in over a year, with a concurrent drop in the unemployment rate [4].

原油方面： 隔夜公布美国截至2月6日当周EIA原油库存数据录得增加853万桶，超过市场预期的增加79.3万桶以及前值的减少345.5万桶，利 空油价，投资者需要警惕油价回落风险。 地缘方面，近期美国总统特朗普表示愿意和伊朗达成核协议。美俄乌近期有可能在美国进一步就和平协议进行谈判。虽然地缘 局势难以在近期得到改善，但是整体趋向降温将是大概率事件，原油供给中断的风险有所缓解。 综合来看，原油市场虽然处于供给过剩的状态，但是边际有所改善，叠加美国总统特朗普较为明显地争夺原油价格的定价权， 原油价格短期延续偏强运行将是大概率事件。 黄金方面： 受美国政府部分停摆影响，隔夜公布的美国1月非农就业报告录得增加13万人，大幅超过市场预期的增加7万人以及前值的增加5 万人，刷新了去年4月份以来的最大增幅。同时公布的美国1月份失业率降至4.3%，刷新了去年8月份以来的新低。数据公布之后 美国总统特朗普大赞非农数据，美国劳工部长也表示，就业报告显示美国经济非常强劲。 劳动力市场的强劲将令市场减少对美联储降息的押注，美联储的官员们对于进一步降息表示谨慎态度。美联储施密德表示，进 一步降息可能导致通胀持续。 地缘政治方面，特朗普会 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 宏观组 年度基准修正大幅下修，暴露去年就业市场真实疲态：与1月强劲表现形成鲜明对比的是，劳工统计局 同步公布的年度基准修正大幅下修2025年就业数据。劳工局将2025年非农就业年度基准下修86万，远低 于预期。这意味着过去一年劳动力市场的实际疲软程度远超此前认知，前期统计失真问题进一步暴露。 这一矛盾图景令美联储政策考量更趋复杂：一方面单月数据支撑就业市场基础稳固的判断，另一方面历 史修正揭示了劳动力市场在2025年的真实脆弱性，降息时机的选择因此更加审慎。就美债走势而言，强 劲单月数据短期内将继续压制降息预期，收益率曲线或将维持陡峭化上行态势；但若后续就业增长未能 延续，市场对经济放缓的担忧可能重新推动长端利率回落。 风险提示：经济数据短期波动风险，上游价格快速上涨风险 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289号 免责声明： 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保 证。本报 告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布当日的观点和判断。在不同时期，本公司可能会 发出 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that a significant majority of economists believe the Federal Reserve will maintain the federal funds rate at its current level in the upcoming meeting, with about three-quarters of respondents supporting this view, a notable increase from the previous month [1] - Nearly 60% of economists expect the federal funds rate to adjust to a range of 3.25%-3.50% by the end of the next quarter, with potential adjustments concentrated around mid-year, reflecting concerns over a softening labor market and persistently high inflation levels [3] - Over 70% of surveyed economists express concerns about the potential erosion of the Federal Reserve's independence, primarily due to uncertainties regarding the policy inclinations of potential successors [3] Group 2 - The current interest rate levels are approaching the neutral range, indicating that future adjustments will increasingly depend on data support, with inflation rates currently closer to 3% rather than the 2% target, necessitating a balance between employment and price stability [3] - Most forecasters believe there will be at least two interest rate adjustments within the year, but there is no consensus on the specific level by year-end, reflecting the uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook [4]