需求减弱，尿素延续跌势 银河期货研究所 化工研究组：张孟超 投资咨询资格证号：Z0017786 从业资格号：F03086954 2025年12月 银河能化微信公众号 目录 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 第二章 基本面数据 供应-全国：2025年第49周 (20251204-1210)，中国尿素分原料产能利用率：煤制尿素89.61%，环比涨2.91%；气制尿素55.23%，环 比跌9.89%。周期内新增1家煤制、1家气制企业装置停车，4家煤制、1家企业停车装置恢复生产，通过企业的开停时间计算、同时延续 上周期的变化，本周期煤制产能利用率上涨、气制产能利用率下跌。 供应-山东：2025年第49周 (20251204-1210)，山东尿素产能利用率81.28%，环比跌3.99%。周期内瑞星装置故障检修，其它企业生 产基本正常，延续上周期装置情况，产能利用率暂时下跌。 需求-三聚氰胺：2025年第50周(20251205-1211），中国三聚氰胺产能利用率周均值为61.86%，较上周提升0.2个百分点。 需求-复合肥：2025年第50周(20251205-1211)，复合肥本周期产能利用率在40.62%，环比提升0.0 ...

Report Summary Investment Rating The report does not mention an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoint The fundamentals of urea are relatively strong, and there is support for the decline in the futures price. Although the urea futures price dropped on Monday, it is difficult for it to fall significantly under the support of gas restrictions, exports, and winter storage. During the roll - over period, caution is advised for both long and short positions [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Spot Market Dynamics - Urea spot prices rose steadily during the week. Although high - price order transactions were limited, enterprises had sufficient pending orders and a strong willingness to hold prices. Since the weekend, prices have remained stable, and new order transactions are limited [3]. 2. Futures Dynamics - Last week, the urea futures price showed different trends each day. As of December 8, the main January contract of urea closed at 1,646 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton from the settlement price on December 1. The weekly trading volume was 1,163.77 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.86 million tons; the open interest was 712.63 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12.13 million tons. The futures increase was less than the spot increase, and the basis strengthened. The 1 - 5 spread was - 86 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 17 yuan/ton. On December 8, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 11,526, a week - on - week increase of 3,589 [5][8]. 3. Urea Supply - side - Last week, urea weekly output decreased. From November 27 to December 3, the weekly output was 1.3851 billion tons, a decrease of 31,900 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 2.25%. Coal - based weekly output decreased slightly, and gas - based weekly output decreased by 9.26%. In the next cycle, the output is still expected to decrease mainly. On December 8, the national daily output of urea was 202,800 tons, an increase of 2,300 tons from the previous day, with an operating rate of 83.57%. The price of动力煤 (steam coal) decreased, and the price of liquefied natural gas, synthetic ammonia, and methanol also declined [12][13][15]. 4. Urea Demand - side - As of December 5, the price of 45% sulfur - based compound fertilizer increased. The compound fertilizer factory's new orders were few, and it mainly executed previous orders. The operating load continued to increase, and the finished - product inventory increased. The capacity utilization rate was close to the historical high level, and the room for further increase in operation was limited. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine increased, but there was a risk of weak growth in the future. Urea inventory continued to decline, and the port inventory was expected to rise [17][19]. 5. International Market - International urea prices declined across the board this week. After the end of the Indian tender, the international urea market was mainly stable. The next round of tender is expected to start in January next year, and the next procurement cycle in the US is expected to be from January to February 2026. As of December 5, the FOB prices of small - and large - particle urea in various regions decreased week - on - week [21][23].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views - Last week's view was that high prices were being resisted and spot price increases were losing momentum; this week's view is that downstream demand is slowing and urea prices are correcting [3] - Market sentiment has cooled as factory prices have been continuously raised, with mainstream urea spot factory quotes in major regions being weakly stable and trading lackluster [3] - Gas - fired plants are starting to undergo maintenance, with a daily output of around 1.95 million tons. The impact of the Indian tender on domestic exports is small [3] - In the short term, domestic demand is stable, agricultural demand is rigid, compound fertilizer production is rising, and urea prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. In the medium term, overall demand will be weak, and the urea fundamentals remain loose [3] - Trading strategies: for single - sided trading, short at high prices but do not chase short positions; for arbitrage and over - the - counter trading, adopt a wait - and - see approach [3] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Analysis**: High prices are being resisted, downstream demand is slowing, and the market sentiment is cooling. Gas - fired plants are under maintenance, and the Indian tender has little impact on domestic exports. Short - term demand is stable, while medium - term demand is weak [3] - **Trading Strategies**: Single - sided trading, short at high prices without chasing short positions; arbitrage and over - the - counter trading, wait - and - see [3] 2. Core Data Changes - **Supply**: In the 48th week of 2025 (20251127 - 1203), the capacity utilization rate of coal - based urea in China was 86.70%, a 0.50% week - on - week decrease; that of gas - based urea was 65.12%, a 6.65% week - on - week decrease. In Shandong, the capacity utilization rate was 85.27%, a 1.40% week - on - week increase [4] - **Demand**: In the 47th week of 2025 (20251114 - 1120), the average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 62.20%, a 4.72 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 34.61%, a 4.29 - percentage - point week - on - week increase. As of December 5, 2025, the urea demand of sample compound fertilizer producers in Linyi, Shandong was 1210 tons, a 18.24% week - on - week decrease. This week (20251128 - 20251205), the urea arrival volume in Northeast China was 120,000 tons, a decrease of 45,000 tons from the previous week. As of December 3, 2025, the pre - order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 7.35 days, a 10.53% week - on - week increase [4] - **Inventory**: On December 3, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.2905 million tons, a 5.38% week - on - week decrease. As of December 4, 2025 (the 49th week), the port sample inventory was 105,000 tons, a 50,000 - ton week - on - week increase [4] - **Valuation**: The price of Jincheng anthracite lump coal is weak, the decline of Yulin pulverized coal has widened, the urea spot price has rebounded, and the urea production profit has expanded. The fixed - bed production breaks even, the water - coal - slurry production has a profit of 70 yuan/ton, and the entrained - flow bed production has a profit of 300 yuan/ton. The basis has converged to around 0 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread is - 50 yuan/ton [4] 3. Other Data (Directory Items 7 - 20) - No detailed data content provided for these items, so no specific summary can be made.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view of urea this week is a fluctuating decline. The short - term driving force is neutral, with the intraday price approaching the upper limit of valuation during the week, and spot trading weakening, leading to a short - term weak correction. Near the delivery of the 01 contract, the increase in warehouse receipts is obvious, and it is expected that the futures price will fluctuate under pressure. The support mainly comes from continuous purchases in the Northeast. The fundamental driving force of urea is currently neutral, and the continuous reduction of explicit inventory supports the price. In the medium - term, the 01 contract has strong fundamental pressure at 1700 yuan/ton, and the lower support is expected to be between 1580 - 1600 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Valuation End: Price and Spread - The report presents multiple charts showing urea basis, monthly spreads, and warehouse receipts, as well as domestic and international spot prices, including data from 2018 - 2025, which can help analyze price trends and market relationships [5][9][15][19] 3.2 Domestic Supply 3.2.1 Capacity - In 2025, the expansion pattern of urea production capacity continues. In 2024, the total new production capacity was 3920,000 tons, and in 2025, new production capacity is also being added. For example, Shaanxi Shanhua completed capacity replacement in January 2025, with a net increase of 400,000 tons [23]. 3.2.2 Production Plan - Many urea production enterprises have maintenance plans, including routine maintenance and loss - based maintenance. For example, Yangmei Fengxi Fertilizer Industry Co., Ltd. carried out routine maintenance from November 10 - 17, 2025 [25]. 3.2.3 Output - The production profit is around the break - even line, and the daily output of urea remains at a high level. The charts show the daily output, capacity utilization rate, and output of coal - based and gas - based urea from 2018 - 2025 [26][27]. 3.2.4 Cost - Raw material prices are stable, and the factory's cash - flow cost line has increased. The report provides cost calculations for Shanxi's fixed - bed factories and shows the complete cost trends of urea's fluidized - bed, fixed - bed, and natural - gas production processes from 2018 - 2025 [29]. 3.2.5 Profit - The profit corresponding to the cash - flow cost of urea is currently in a profitable state. The report shows the cash - flow profit and production profit of different production processes from 2018 - 2025 [35][36]. 3.2.6 Net Import (Export) - During the reserve period, export policies are tightened. The report provides monthly net import (export) data from 2018 - 2025 (E), showing that exports have increased significantly in 2025 [41]. 3.3 Domestic Demand 3.3.1 Agricultural Demand - Agricultural demand shows seasonal strengthening. Different regions and crops have different fertilizer - using seasons. Also, the construction of high - standard farmland has increased the demand for urea from corn [47][50]. 3.3.2 Industrial Demand - **Compound Fertilizer**: The report shows the production cost, inventory, production profit, and capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers from 2019 - 2025 [54][55][56]. - **Melamine**: The report presents the production profit, market price, output, and capacity utilization rate of melamine from 2018 - 2025 [57][58][60]. - **Real Estate and Panels**: The demand for panels from the real estate sector has limited support, but panel exports are resilient. The report provides data on panel export volume, real - estate completion area, and construction area from 2020 - 2025 [62][63]. 3.4 Inventory - The inventory of urea production enterprises has increased. As of December 3, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1,290,500 tons, a decrease of 73,400 tons from the previous week. As of December 4, 2025 (week 49), the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 105,000 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons from the previous week [65][68]. 3.5 International Urea - The report shows the FOB prices of large - granular urea in China, the Baltic Sea, and the Middle East, as well as the CFR price of large - granular urea in Brazil from 2018 - 2025, which can help analyze the international urea market [71][72][73]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Range-bound with a bullish bias - Inter-period: Wait and see - Inter-commodity: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The trading atmosphere of urea has improved, and the spot price has been raised. The restart of shutdown plants in Shanxi and Hebei and the increase in the operating rate of large enterprises in Hubei have led to an overall increase in the operating rate of compound fertilizers. The operating rate of melamine has decreased, with only rigid demand for procurement. Gradual entry of off-season storage. With the release of new production capacity, the medium- and long-term supply and demand of urea will remain relatively loose, and the gas-based plant maintenance in the fourth quarter is expected to start gradually in December. Driven by reserve demand and the increase in the operating rate of compound fertilizers, the sales of urea enterprises have improved, with inventory reduction at factories and a slight increase in port inventory. The highest domestic inventory is still in Inner Mongolia, and the reserve demand in the Northeast has increased, leading to inventory reduction in Inner Mongolia. Continued attention should be paid to the operating rate of compound fertilizers in the Northeast, the raw material procurement rhythm, and the national off-season storage rhythm. In October, 1.2 million tons of urea were exported, and the cumulative exports this year have exceeded 4 million tons. According to Argus, urea producers have obtained a fourth batch of export quotas totaling 600,000 tons, which has improved the export outlook for the end of the year and is expected to support the现货 market to some extent. The urea import tender of India's IPL closed on November 20, with the lowest CFR prices of $418.40/ton at the East Coast and $419.50/ton at the West Coast. A total of 24 suppliers' quantities were received, and the lowest price was higher than the previous one. Continuous attention should be paid to the sentiment and rhythm of domestic spot procurement. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Basis Structure - On November 27, 2025, the closing price of the main urea contract was 1,668 yuan/ton (+14). The ex-factory price of small granular urea in Henan was quoted at 1,650 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price in Shandong was 1,650 yuan/ton (+20), and the price in Jiangsu was 1,640 yuan/ton (+20). The price of small lump anthracite was 750 yuan/ton (unchanged). The basis in Shandong was -18 yuan/ton (+6), the basis in Henan was -18 yuan/ton (+6), and the basis in Jiangsu was -28 yuan/ton (+6). [1] Urea Production - As of November 27, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of enterprises was 83.71% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.3639 million tons (-73,300 tons), and the inventory of port samples was 100,000 tons (unchanged). [1] Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - As of November 27, 2025, the production profit of urea was 120 yuan/ton (+20), and the export profit was 1,014 yuan/ton (+10). [1] Urea Offshore Price and Export Profit - In October, 1.2 million tons of urea were exported, and the cumulative exports this year have exceeded 4 million tons. According to Argus, urea producers have obtained a fourth batch of export quotas totaling 600,000 tons, which has improved the export outlook for the end of the year and is expected to support the现货 market to some extent. [2] Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of November 27, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 37.06% (+2.45%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 60.80% (-1.40%), and the number of days of advance orders for urea enterprises was 6.65 days (-0.47). [1] Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of November 27, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.3639 million tons (-73,300 tons), and the inventory of port samples was 100,000 tons (unchanged). [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - Urea spot new orders follow-up slowed down, and the futures market rose slightly due to export news. Agricultural autumn fertilizer production is ending, compound fertilizer autumn fertilizer production is winding up, and winter storage fertilizer production has not started on a large scale. The overall operating rate remains stable. Melamine operating rate increased slightly, with rigid demand procurement. In the medium and long term, urea supply and demand remain loose due to new capacity release. Gas-based plant maintenance in the fourth quarter is expected to start gradually in December. Affected by the export quota news, urea enterprises' shipments improved, and inventory decreased. The high inventory area is still Inner Mongolia. Attention should be paid to the start-up rate of compound fertilizer plants in the Northeast, raw material procurement rhythm, and the national light storage rhythm. The news of the fourth batch of 600,000 tons of export quotas has improved the year-end export expectation of urea, which is expected to support the spot market. India's IPL issued a new round of urea import tender on November 7, with an intention to tender 2.5 million tons, 1.25 million tons each for the east and west coasts. The tender will close on November 20, be valid until November 28, and the latest shipping date is January 15, 2026. Continuous attention should be paid to the spot procurement sentiment and rhythm [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On November 12, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1,655 yuan/ton (+15). The ex-factory price of small granular urea in Henan was 1,610 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Shandong was 1,600 yuan/ton (-10), and in Jiangsu was 1,600 yuan/ton (-10). The basis in Shandong was -55 yuan/ton (-25), in Henan was -45 yuan/ton (-25), and in Jiangsu was -55 yuan/ton (-25) [1] 2. Urea Production - As of November 12, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 82.71% (up 0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.4836 million tons (-94,500 tons), and the port sample inventory was 79,000 tons (-31,000 tons) [1] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - On November 12, 2025, the urea production profit was 70 yuan/ton (-10), and the export profit was 930 yuan/ton (-1) [1] 4. Urea Overseas Prices and Export Profit - Not specifically summarized in the text, but the export profit is mentioned in the price and basis section, with an export profit of 930 yuan/ton (-1) on November 12, 2025 [1] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of November 12, 2025, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 31.04% (unchanged), the melamine capacity utilization rate was 53.20% (up 3.22%), and the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 7.71 days (+0.42) [1] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of November 12, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.4836 million tons (-94,500 tons), and the port sample inventory was 79,000 tons (-31,000 tons) [1] Strategies - Unilateral: Range - bound oscillation, opportunistic cash - and - carry arbitrage - Inter - delivery: Wait - and - see - Inter - commodity: None [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current daily production and operating rate of urea have declined from high levels, and the comprehensive inventory has slightly decreased. Agricultural demand has rebounded due to weather influence, while industrial demand is weak. The export volume has increased due to the large price difference between domestic and international markets, and the export expectation is gradually being realized. However, the domestic urea market still has an overall oversupply situation. The UR2601 contract basis is -74, with a premium/discount ratio of -4.7%, indicating a bearish signal. The UR comprehensive inventory is 166.4 million tons (-17.6), also bearish. The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, but the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a neutral signal. The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish. It is expected that the UR main contract will fluctuate today [4]. - The bullish factors for urea are the strong international price and the rebound of agricultural demand, while the bearish factor is the domestic oversupply. The main logic lies in the international price and the marginal change of domestic demand [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Current daily production and operating rate are falling from high levels, comprehensive inventory is slightly down. Agricultural demand rebounds due to weather, industrial demand is weak. Export volume increases with large price difference, but domestic market is still oversupplied. Spot price of delivery product is 1570 (+0), overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: UR2601 contract basis is -74, premium/discount ratio is -4.7%, bearish [4]. - **Inventory**: UR comprehensive inventory is 166.4 million tons (-17.6), bearish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, but the closing price is above the 20 - day line, neutral [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The UR main contract is expected to fluctuate today considering weak industrial demand, rising agricultural demand, strong international prices and increasing export volume, but obvious domestic oversupply [4]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Urea - From 2018 to 2024, the urea production capacity has been increasing year - by - year, with growth rates of 8.9% in 2019, 15.5% in 2020, 11.4% in 2021, 8.4% in 2022, 14.1% in 2023, and 13.5% in 2024. The import dependence has generally shown a downward trend, and the consumption growth rate has fluctuated. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4906 with an 11.0% growth rate [9]. Spot and Futures Market - **Spot**: The price of the spot delivery product is 1570 with no change, Shandong spot price is 1580 with no change, Henan spot price is 1570 with no change, and FOB China price is 2690 [6]. - **Futures**: The price of the 01 contract is 1644 (+11), the basis is -74 (-11), UR05 price is 1727 (+12), and UR09 price is 1750 (+11) [6]. Inventory - The UR comprehensive inventory is 166.4 million tons (-17.6), the UR manufacturer inventory is 155.4 million tons, and the UR port inventory is 11 million tons [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - term: After the export window period, conduct anti - arbitrage on UR01 - 05 when it reaches a high; Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The domestic urea spot market has manufacturers reducing prices to attract orders. After the spot price breaks through the previous low, the transaction improves but the sustainability is insufficient. The spot price fluctuates weakly. With the rebound of the futures price, the transaction improves. Attention should be paid to the sentiment of order collection before the festival. The domestic demand is weak, the inventory in urea plants continues to accumulate, mainly in Inner Mongolia. The urea production remains at a high level, and the medium - and long - term supply and demand of urea are still relatively loose. The export side still has a great impact on the sentiment of urea prices. The export window period in September is conducive to continuous exports, and the port inventory is decreasing. Attention should be paid to the resonance period of the increase in export speed and the improvement of domestic demand [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Basis Structure - The report provides information on the market prices of small - particle urea in Shandong and Henan, the basis of Shandong and Henan main - continuous contracts, the price of the urea main - continuous contract, and the 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1 spreads, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [7][8][9] Urea Production - The report shows the weekly urea production and the loss of urea plant maintenance, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [20][26] Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - It presents the production cost, spot production profit, futures production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [26][27][29] Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - The report includes the FOB prices of small - particle urea in the Baltic Sea, the CFR price of large - particle urea in Southeast Asia, the FOB price of small - particle urea in China, the CFR price of large - particle urea in China, the difference between the FOB prices of small - particle urea in the Baltic Sea and China, the difference between the CFR price of large - particle urea in Southeast Asia and the FOB price in China, the urea export profit, and the futures export profit, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [32][33][37] Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - It shows the operating rates of compound fertilizer and melamine, the number of days of pending orders, and the number of days of raw material inventory of urea downstream manufacturers in Hebei, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [53][48][54] Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report provides information on the upstream in - plant inventory, port inventory, futures warehouse receipts, the holding volume of the main contract, and the trading volume of the main contract, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [51][54][57] Market Analysis - **Price and Basis**: On September 24, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,673 yuan/ton (+15). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,610 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1,610 yuan/ton (+0), and in Jiangsu was 1,620 yuan/ton (+0). The price of small anthracite was 750 yuan/ton (+0). The basis in Shandong was - 63 yuan/ton (-15), in Henan was - 63 yuan/ton (-25), and in Jiangsu was - 53 yuan/ton (-15). The urea production profit was 80 yuan/ton (+0), and the export profit was 1,149 yuan/ton (+9) [1] - **Supply Side**: As of September 24, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 81.21% (+0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.2182 million tons (+52,900 tons), and the inventory of port samples was 516,000 tons (-33,400 tons) [1] - **Demand Side**: As of September 24, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 38.63% (+0.81%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 56.78% (+1.40%), and the number of days of advance orders of urea enterprises was 6.71 days (+0.53) [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The urea market is expected to be volatile today. The international urea price is strong, but the export policy has not been significantly liberalized, and the domestic market still has an obvious oversupply situation [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The recent urea futures market has been volatile. The current daily production and operating rate have slightly declined but remain at a relatively high level, and the overall inventory is at a high level. On the demand side, the operating rate of compound fertilizers in industrial demand has rebounded, the operating rate of melamine is neutral, and agricultural demand has entered the off - season. The domestic urea market still has an obvious oversupply situation, the export profit is still high, and the export policy has not been significantly liberalized. The spot price of the delivery product is 1730 (-30), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [5]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 60, and the premium/discount ratio is 3.5%, which is bullish [5]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive UR inventory is 137.1 million tons (-4.0), which is bearish [5]. - **Futures Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the main UR contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [5]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the main UR contract has increased, which is bullish [5]. - **Likely Factors**: The international price is strong, which is a bullish factor; the high operating rate and daily production, as well as the weak domestic demand, are bearish factors. The main logic lies in the marginal changes in international prices and domestic demand, and the main risk point is the change in export policy [6]. Spot, Futures, and Inventory Data - **Spot**: The spot price of the delivery product is 1730 (-30), the Shandong spot price is 1730 (-30), the Henan spot price is 1740 (0), and the FOB China price is 3271 [7]. - **Futures**: The price of the 01 contract is 1670 (-11), the basis is 60 (-19), the price of the UR05 contract is 1725 (-9), and the price of the UR09 contract is 1745 (-10) [7]. - **Inventory**: The warehouse receipt is 8188 (-80), the comprehensive UR inventory is 137.1 million tons, the UR manufacturer inventory is 88.8 million tons, and the UR port inventory is 48.3 million tons [7]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, the urea production capacity has been increasing year by year, with growth rates ranging from 8.4% to 15.5%. The production, net import volume, apparent consumption, and actual consumption have also shown certain trends of change. For example, in 2024, the production capacity is 4418.5, the production is 3425, the net import volume is 360, the apparent consumption is 3785, and the actual consumption is 3778.25 [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - The urea market is currently facing a situation of high supply and weak domestic demand, with the overall supply-demand imbalance still significant. Although the international urea price is strong and the export profit is high, the export policy has not been significantly liberalized. It is expected that the UR contract will show a volatile trend today [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The recent urea futures market has been volatile. The current daily production and operating rate have slightly declined but remain at a relatively high level, and the overall inventory is at a high position. On the demand side, the operating rate of compound fertilizers in industrial demand has increased, the operating rate of melamine is at a medium level, and agricultural demand has entered the off - season. The overall supply of domestic urea exceeds demand significantly, the export profit is still high, and the export policy has not been significantly liberalized. The spot price of the delivery product is 1760 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 74, and the premium/discount ratio is 4.2%, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive UR inventory is 1.371 million tons (-40,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - **Futures Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the UR main contract has decreased, which is bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The futures price of the urea main contract is volatile. The international urea price is strong, the export policy has not been liberalized beyond expectations, and the overall domestic supply exceeds demand significantly. It is expected that the UR will show a volatile trend today [4]. - **Leverage Factors**: Bullish factor is the strong international price; bearish factors are the high operating rate and daily production, and the weak domestic demand. The main logic lies in the marginal changes in international prices and domestic demand, and the main risk point is the change in export policy [5]. Spot and Futures Market Quotes | Region | Price | Change | Main Contract | Price | Change | Inventory Type | Quantity | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot Delivery Product | 1760 | 0 | 01 Contract | 1686 | 3 | Warehouse Receipt | 8279 | -334 | | Shandong Spot | 1760 | 0 | Basis | 74 | -3 | UR Comprehensive Inventory | 137.1 | -4.0 | | Henan Spot | 1780 | 0 | UR01 | 1686 | 3 | UR Manufacturer Inventory | 88.8 | - | | FOB China | 3273 | - | UR05 | 1737 | 6 | UR Port Inventory | 48.3 | - | | - | - | - | UR09 | 1757 | 7 | - | - | - | [6] Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 2245.5 | - | 1956.81 | 448.38 (18.6%) | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | - | | 2019 | - | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 (17.9%) | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 (19.3%) | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 (10.7%) | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 (10.2%) | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 (8.4%) | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 (9.5%) | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 4906 | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [9]