1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The urea market is expected to be volatile today. The international urea price is strong, but the export policy has not been significantly liberalized, and the domestic market still has an obvious oversupply situation [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The recent urea futures market has been volatile. The current daily production and operating rate have slightly declined but remain at a relatively high level, and the overall inventory is at a high level. On the demand side, the operating rate of compound fertilizers in industrial demand has rebounded, the operating rate of melamine is neutral, and agricultural demand has entered the off - season. The domestic urea market still has an obvious oversupply situation, the export profit is still high, and the export policy has not been significantly liberalized. The spot price of the delivery product is 1730 (-30), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [5]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 60, and the premium/discount ratio is 3.5%, which is bullish [5]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive UR inventory is 137.1 million tons (-4.0), which is bearish [5]. - **Futures Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the main UR contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [5]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the main UR contract has increased, which is bullish [5]. - **Likely Factors**: The international price is strong, which is a bullish factor; the high operating rate and daily production, as well as the weak domestic demand, are bearish factors. The main logic lies in the marginal changes in international prices and domestic demand, and the main risk point is the change in export policy [6]. Spot, Futures, and Inventory Data - **Spot**: The spot price of the delivery product is 1730 (-30), the Shandong spot price is 1730 (-30), the Henan spot price is 1740 (0), and the FOB China price is 3271 [7]. - **Futures**: The price of the 01 contract is 1670 (-11), the basis is 60 (-19), the price of the UR05 contract is 1725 (-9), and the price of the UR09 contract is 1745 (-10) [7]. - **Inventory**: The warehouse receipt is 8188 (-80), the comprehensive UR inventory is 137.1 million tons, the UR manufacturer inventory is 88.8 million tons, and the UR port inventory is 48.3 million tons [7]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, the urea production capacity has been increasing year by year, with growth rates ranging from 8.4% to 15.5%. The production, net import volume, apparent consumption, and actual consumption have also shown certain trends of change. For example, in 2024, the production capacity is 4418.5, the production is 3425, the net import volume is 360, the apparent consumption is 3785, and the actual consumption is 3778.25 [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - The urea market is currently facing a situation of high supply and weak domestic demand, with the overall supply-demand imbalance still significant. Although the international urea price is strong and the export profit is high, the export policy has not been significantly liberalized. It is expected that the UR contract will show a volatile trend today [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The recent urea futures market has been volatile. The current daily production and operating rate have slightly declined but remain at a relatively high level, and the overall inventory is at a high position. On the demand side, the operating rate of compound fertilizers in industrial demand has increased, the operating rate of melamine is at a medium level, and agricultural demand has entered the off - season. The overall supply of domestic urea exceeds demand significantly, the export profit is still high, and the export policy has not been significantly liberalized. The spot price of the delivery product is 1760 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 74, and the premium/discount ratio is 4.2%, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive UR inventory is 1.371 million tons (-40,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - **Futures Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the UR main contract has decreased, which is bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The futures price of the urea main contract is volatile. The international urea price is strong, the export policy has not been liberalized beyond expectations, and the overall domestic supply exceeds demand significantly. It is expected that the UR will show a volatile trend today [4]. - **Leverage Factors**: Bullish factor is the strong international price; bearish factors are the high operating rate and daily production, and the weak domestic demand. The main logic lies in the marginal changes in international prices and domestic demand, and the main risk point is the change in export policy [5]. Spot and Futures Market Quotes | Region | Price | Change | Main Contract | Price | Change | Inventory Type | Quantity | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot Delivery Product | 1760 | 0 | 01 Contract | 1686 | 3 | Warehouse Receipt | 8279 | -334 | | Shandong Spot | 1760 | 0 | Basis | 74 | -3 | UR Comprehensive Inventory | 137.1 | -4.0 | | Henan Spot | 1780 | 0 | UR01 | 1686 | 3 | UR Manufacturer Inventory | 88.8 | - | | FOB China | 3273 | - | UR05 | 1737 | 6 | UR Port Inventory | 48.3 | - | | - | - | - | UR09 | 1757 | 7 | - | - | - | [6] Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 2245.5 | - | 1956.81 | 448.38 (18.6%) | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | - | | 2019 | - | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 (17.9%) | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 (19.3%) | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 (10.7%) | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 (10.2%) | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 (8.4%) | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 (9.5%) | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 4906 | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trend of urea is under pressure this week. Although exports are accelerating, the price - driving effect is expected to be limited due to pre - prepared goods by traders. Weak domestic demand is the main contradiction, and it is expected that the increase in exports cannot make up for the weakening of domestic demand. The medium - term trend is under pressure. The inventory of urea production enterprises is expected to show a slight accumulation pattern next week. [2][3][4] - For trading strategies, the unilateral trend is weak. Pay attention to macro - sentiment and spot transactions during the week. The upper pressure is 1710 - 1720 yuan/ton, and the lower support is 1600 - 1620 yuan/ton. For the 01 contract, it is recommended to short at high prices. For inter - period spreads, conduct reverse spreads for 10 - 1/11 - 1 month spreads and 1 - 5 month spreads. There is no suggestion for inter - variety spreads. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Valuation: Price and Spreads - The report presents multiple charts about urea basis (including Zhengyuan, Jinkai, Boda, Dongping), monthly spreads (5 - 9, 1 - 5, 9 - 1), and warehouse receipts, as well as domestic and international spot prices, showing the price and spread trends of urea over the years. [7][11][17][22] 3.2 Domestic Supply - **Capacity**: In 2025, the expansion pattern of urea capacity continues. In 2024, the total new capacity was 4270,000 tons, and in 2025, the expected new capacity is 3,460,000 tons. Multiple enterprises have new capacity coming on - stream or old capacity being replaced. [26] - **Production Plan**: The report lists the overhaul plans of multiple urea production enterprises, including details such as the start and end dates of shutdowns, reasons, and whether the shutdowns are on schedule. [30] - **Output**: The production profit is around the break - even point, but the daily output of urea remains high. The report also shows the historical trends of daily output and capacity utilization rate of urea in China. [31][32] - **Cost**: Raw material prices are stable, and the factory's cash - flow cost line is stable. The report provides cost calculations for different production processes in Shanxi, such as fixed - bed and gas - based processes, and shows the historical trends of full - cost curves for different processes. [34] - **Profit**: The profit corresponding to the cash - flow cost of urea is currently in a profitable state. The report shows the profit trends of different production processes (fixed - bed, fluid - bed, gas - based) over the years. [40] - **Net Import (Export)**: With the adjustment of export policies, subsequent export volumes may increase. The report provides monthly and annual export data from 2018 to 2025. [45] 3.3 Domestic Demand - **Agricultural Demand**: Agricultural demand shows seasonal characteristics. High - standard farmland construction has led to an increase in the demand for urea from corn. The report details the agricultural demand for urea in different regions and seasons throughout the year. [51][54] - **Industrial Demand** - **Compound Fertilizer**: The compound fertilizer industry has low capacity utilization, high inventory, and low production profit. The report shows relevant data trends over the years. [59][60] - **Melamine**: The production profit of melamine has certain fluctuations, and its output and capacity utilization also show corresponding trends. [62][63] - **Real Estate and Wood Products**: The demand for panels from the real estate industry has limited support, but panel exports are resilient. The report shows the export data of wood products and the trends of real - estate construction and completion areas. [64][65] 3.4 Inventory - Factory inventory: On September 10, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.1327 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 37,700 tons or 3.44%. The inventory of some enterprises decreased due to export orders, while that of non - exporting enterprises increased due to weak domestic demand. [70] - Port inventory: As of September 11, 2025 (week 37), the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 549,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 71,500 tons or 11.52%. The port inventory trend changed from rising to falling. [70] 3.5 International Urea - The report shows the price trends of international urea, including FOB prices in China, the Baltic Sea, and the Middle East, as well as CFR prices in Brazil over the years. [73][74]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core Viewpoints - Recently, urea prices have been falling continuously, and short positions in the futures market have been increasing daily. The main reason for the futures price falling more than the spot price is the elimination of export expectations, and urea prices in the future will be more determined by the domestic market [4]. - There may be some discrepancies in inventory expectations. Some enterprises with export quotas may accelerate cargo collection at ports in September, and ports will intensify inventory clearance before October 15 [6]. - Urea is still under high - supply pressure in the large - scale production cycle, but there is still demand. Considering its unique sales attributes and potential expectation discrepancies, urea may have short - term upward momentum [7]. Summary by Related Content Price and Basis - The basis (Henan's lowest deliverable product price) was around - 110 last Tuesday and is currently - 70. The futures price has fallen more than the spot price, mainly due to the extrusion of export expectations from the futures market [4]. Inventory - After entering the second quarter, urea enterprises have slow de - stocking due to high daily production and export quota occupation, and current enterprise inventory fluctuates around 1 million tons. Port inventory has increased due to the opening of exports [6]. - Since August, the increase in enterprise inventory has mainly occurred in Inner Mongolia. Considering the low export quota of Inner Mongolian factories and the single - peak season in a year, the Northeast market should be considered when analyzing future enterprise inventory trends. Northeast urea demand is gradually starting, which may drive the de - stocking of Inner Mongolian inventory [6]. Supply and Demand - Urea is still under high - supply pressure in the large - scale production cycle, and new production capacity will be put into operation in the fourth quarter, but the time is still early and there is still demand [7].

Report Overview - Report Title: Urea Daily Report on August 19, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Energy and Chemical Research Report [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The overall supply of urea in China is loose, with the daily average output still at a high level. Although some devices are under maintenance, the daily output is around 190,000 tons, the highest in the same period. The demand side shows a downward trend, with low enthusiasm for compound fertilizers in Central and North China, and few grass - roots orders. However, the new Indian tender of 2 million tons has a certain boosting effect on the domestic market sentiment. In the short term, the domestic demand is limited, but the futures market has risen due to news stimulation. It is expected that the domestic urea price will remain firm [5]. Summary by Directory Market Review - Futures Market: Urea futures increased in volume and price in the afternoon, closing at 1817 (+62/+3.53%) [3] - Spot Market: The ex - factory price was weakly stable, and the transaction was average. The ex - factory prices in different regions were as follows: Henan 1660 - 1680 yuan/ton, Shandong small - particle 1680 - 1690 yuan/ton, Hebei small - particle 1700 - 1710 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small - particle 1630 - 1640 yuan/ton, Anhui small - particle 1700 - 1710 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia 1540 - 1620 yuan/ton [3] Important Information - On August 19, the daily output of the urea industry was 198,400 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons compared with the previous working day and an increase of 30,100 tons compared with the same period last year. The daily operating rate was 85.70%, a 9.39% increase compared with 76.31% in the same period last year [4] Logical Analysis - Market Sentiment: The market sentiment was average, and the ex - factory quotes of urea spot in mainstream areas were stable, but the transaction weakened. In Shandong, the mainstream ex - factory quotes rebounded slightly, the industrial compound fertilizer operating rate increased slightly, but the raw material inventory was sufficient, the finished product inventory was high, and the new order transaction was weak. In Henan, the market sentiment was low, the ex - factory quotes were stable, and the new order transaction was weak. In the areas around the delivery area, the ex - factory price was weakly stable, and the market atmosphere cooled down [5] - Supply: Some devices were under maintenance, and the daily output decreased to around 190,000 tons, still at the highest level in the same period [5] - Demand: A new round of Indian tender was announced, with India tendering 2 million tons again, closing on September 2 and with a shipping date at the end of October. The domestic and foreign price difference was large, which had a certain boosting effect on the domestic market sentiment. The enthusiasm for compound fertilizers in Central and North China was not high, the grass - roots had no intention to stock up, and the compound fertilizer factories' operating rate increased slightly, but the demand for raw materials was low. The inventory of urea production enterprises increased by 68,900 tons to around 957,400 tons, at a high level [5] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Go long on dips [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Options: Sell put options on pullbacks [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - Last week, the urea futures market first rose and then fell. Affected by the high price of the Indian tender and the opening of exports to India, the market soared and then declined. The downstream's ability to bear high prices is insufficient. Although there is demand resilience, there is no willingness to purchase urea in a concentrated manner for the time being. It is mainly based on replenishing stocks at low prices. With the support of exports and subsequent purchases by compound fertilizer factories, the downside space for urea is limited, and it will mainly undergo weak consolidation in the short term [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Market Dynamics - In the first half of last week, affected by the rising futures price, the Indian tender price, and export news, the trading atmosphere in the urea spot market was hot, and the spot price increased. In the second half of the week, the export situation was less than expected, and the downstream support was insufficient, so the price stabilized and declined. Since the weekend, the downstream trading has been mediocre, and the price has mainly been adjusted downward [3] Futures Dynamics - Last week, the urea futures first declined and then rose, with an overall increase. As of August 11, the main September contract of urea closed at 1,722 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton compared to the settlement price on August 4. The trading volume of the main contract last week was 15.6933 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 163,000 tons; the open interest was 5.7222 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 370,600 tons. After the Indian tender price increased and China opened the export of urea to India, the futures price soared to a high of 1,791 yuan/ton, but then the export volume was less than expected, and the futures price corrected. Last week, the decline of urea futures was weaker than that of the spot, and the basis weakened [5] Urea Supply - Last week, the weekly output of urea decreased. From July 31 to August 6, the weekly output of urea was 1.3285 million tons, a decrease of 9,100 tons from the previous period, a week-on-week decrease of 0.87%; the average daily output was 189,800 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 13,000 tons. It is expected that no enterprise's equipment will be shut down next week, and one shut-down enterprise will resume production. As of August 11, 2025, the national daily output of urea was 191,700 tons, and the operating rate was 81.62% [12] Urea Demand - Last week, the price of compound fertilizer remained flat compared to the previous week. As of August 8, the quotation of 45% sulfur-based compound fertilizer was 2,950 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged week-on-week. Currently, compound fertilizer factories are in the initial stage of autumn fertilizer production, with an increasing operating load. Sales are mainly based on pre-sales orders, and the finished product inventory in the factories is continuously increasing. Due to the general bearish sentiment in the market and the lack of preparations for large-scale inventory replenishment by compound fertilizer factories, the purchase of raw material urea is mainly based on buying at low prices and making appropriate replenishments. At present, the probability of subsequent concentrated purchases is low. From August 1 to August 7, the operating rate of compound fertilizer was 41.5%, an increase of 3.03 percentage points from the previous week and 2.75 percentage points higher than the same period last year. From August 1 to August 7, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 61.1%, a decrease of 0.12 percentage points from the previous period and 11.85 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The operating load of melamine decreased, the number of shut-down and maintenance equipment increased during the week, and the downstream demand was weak. It is expected that the operating load will continue to decline in the short term [17] Inventory - As of August 8, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 887,600 tons, a decrease of 29,700 tons from the previous week, a week-on-week decrease of 3.24%, and 563,300 tons higher than the same period last year. During the week, the urea output decreased, and the downstream's low-price purchasing increased, so the inventory in the urea factories decreased. It is expected that the urea inventory will continue to decline next week. The inventory of the port samples was 483,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous week. As the export goods gradually left the port, the port inventory decreased [19] International Market - China will export a limited quantity of urea to India, with an expected export volume of 200,000 - 300,000 tons. The price of the IPL Indian tender is higher than the market expectation, and India's demand for urea is still increasing. It is expected that a new tender will be launched in September. Except for India and Brazil, the demand in other global markets has declined to varying degrees. It is expected that the international urea price will have a correction trend before the new demand from these two countries emerges. As of August 8, the FOB price of small-grain urea in China was reported at $460/ton, a week-on-week increase of $50/ton; the FOB price in the Baltic Sea was reported at $455/ton, a week-on-week increase of $20/ton; the price in the Arabian Gulf was $512.5/ton, a week-on-week increase of $20/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was reported at $457.5/ton, a week-on-week increase of $20/ton. As of August 8, the FOB price of large-grain urea in China was reported at $467.5/ton, a week-on-week increase of $30/ton; the FOB price of large-grain urea in Egypt was $502.5/ton, a week-on-week increase of $12.5/ton; the FOB price of large-grain urea in the Arabian Gulf was $456.5/ton, a week-on-week increase of $7/ton; the FOB price of large-grain urea in the Baltic Sea was $455/ton, a week-on-week increase of $15/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was reported at $465/ton, a week-on-week increase of $7.5/ton; the FOB price in the US Gulf was reported at $446.5/ton, a week-on-week decrease of $12.5/ton [21]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view on urea is neutral. In terms of supply, summer maintenance has increased, leading to a decline in production; export profits are high, but export quotas have not been significantly relaxed. For demand, the autumn pre - sales of compound fertilizers have started, with a slow increase in the operating rate, and industrial demand is lukewarm. In the short term, domestic driving factors are not obvious, and attention should be paid to changes in export policies [4]. - The view on the month - spread is neutral to bullish. Opportunities for the month - spread to strengthen due to export boosts can continue to be monitored [4]. - The view on policies is neutral. There are market rumors about an increase in the export guidance price and the release of a new round of export quotas, but there is no definite news of a significant relaxation of exports [4]. - The view on the spot market is neutral. The operating rate of compound fertilizers is slowly increasing, but enterprise orders are stable, and trading is lukewarm [4]. - The view on inventory is neutral. Enterprise inventories continue to decline, while port inventories continue to rise. Some enterprise inventories are transferred to ports, and export demand supports the current urea price [4]. - The view on exports is neutral to bullish. International prices continue to rise, further increasing potential export profits. In June, urea exports reached 70,000 tons. Based on the significantly increased port inventories, export volumes may further increase. There are rumors that the second - batch export quotas have been released, but the export volume is still limited [4]. - The view on demand is neutral. Compound fertilizer enterprises are advancing autumn fertilizer orders as needed, with a slow increase in the operating rate. The demand for melamine is weak, and the operating rate may remain low. Domestic demand lacks imagination [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Price Slightly Stabilized - Domestic agricultural demand is in the off - season. Although compound fertilizers have started autumn fertilizer production, the operating rate is rising slowly. There are market rumors that the pricing of the second - batch export quotas is high, resulting in fewer transactions of small and medium - sized particles and hindering small - package urea exports. Overall demand has not significantly increased, and enterprise sales are lukewarm [12]. - The export profit has further expanded. There are rumors that the second - batch quotas have been issued, and the export volume may increase [33]. Operating Rate May Remain High - Coal - based profits are still good. Summer maintenance has begun, causing the operating rate to decline, but it remains at a high level in recent years. According to Longzhong Information, some enterprises are under maintenance this period, and some are resuming production. Next week, one enterprise plans to shut down, and 4 - 5 shut - down enterprises' devices may resume production. The operating rate may slightly rebound, and supply pressure still exists [39]. Enterprises Continue to Reduce Inventory, and Port Aggregation Increases - This week, enterprise inventories continued to decline slightly. Low - price order receipts improved, but new order transactions were limited. Port inventories continued to rise, with large - particle goods arriving at Yantai Port and small - particle goods arriving at Rizhao, Tianjin, Zhenjiang, and Lianyungang Ports, while other ports showed no obvious changes [51]. Urea Profits Support High Operating Rates - Although coal prices have stabilized, they lack the basis for a continuous rebound. Coal - based urea still maintains high profits [60]. - As urea prices fluctuate at a low level, the profit of gas - based urea has almost disappeared [70]. Export Expectations May Improve - In June 2025, China exported a total of 4.29 million tons of various fertilizers, including 70,000 tons of urea, 1.86 million tons of ammonium sulfate, 510,000 tons of diammonium phosphate, and 170,000 tons of monoammonium phosphate. From January to June 2025, China's cumulative export of various fertilizers was 17.13 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 35.9%; the cumulative export amount was 4.069 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 25.9% [75]. Demand is Lukewarm - This week, the atmosphere in the compound fertilizer market has improved. The prices of raw materials, led by potash fertilizer, have risen. Autumn fertilizer pre - sales have started, and the market is oscillating strongly. The operating rate is slowly increasing. The prices of upstream synthetic ammonia are oscillating at a low level, while the prices of phosphate ammonium and potash fertilizer have risen. Urea prices remain range - bound. Currently, the sales of autumn fertilizers are the same as in previous years. In the short term, the supply and demand of compound fertilizers are stable, and price fluctuations are limited [85][91]. - The downstream demand for melamine is weak, and some panel factories have shut down for holidays. However, since the price is close to the cost, the downward space is also limited. Some large - scale devices in Sichuan and Xinjiang have resumed, and some devices in Xinjiang and Shandong are expected to resume next week. The operating rate of melamine may slightly increase [99][103]. Coal is Weak, and Gas is Strong - Recently, coal consumption has entered the peak season. High temperatures in many places have increased the power load, and coal demand has increased, leading to a stable rebound in prices. However, due to the increase in new - energy power generation squeezing thermal power demand and the high inventory of power plants, overall, coal prices lack the power for continuous upward movement [130]. - Synthetic ammonia shows a differentiated trend of falling in the north and rising in the south. In the northern market, supply has increased due to the resumption of maintenance enterprises, but demand has not increased, putting pressure on prices. In the southern market, affected by the increase in the operating rate of downstream phosphate fertilizer enterprises, low - price enterprises have started to raise their quotes [138]. Futures and Spot are Oscillating, and the Month - Spread is Slightly Strengthening - Recently, the number of warehouse receipts is significantly higher than in the same period in history [164]. Balance Sheet - Recently, there have been many maintenance operations, and production may decrease slightly month - on - month [169]. - The balance sheet shows the total supply, production, imports, total demand, and other data of urea from September 2024 to December 2025, as well as the year - on - year changes in production, supply, and consumption [167].

Core Viewpoint - The urea market is expected to experience a downward price trend in the second half of 2025 due to seasonal demand fluctuations, high inventory levels, and ongoing supply pressures, despite potential short-term rebounds in August and September driven by agricultural demand and export activities [1][13]. Production Capacity and Profitability - In the first half of 2025, the urea industry added 3.51% in production capacity, totaling 309 million tons, with a theoretical capacity increase from 76.7 million tons to 79.39 million tons [2]. - The industry is projected to add another 292 million tons of capacity in the second half of 2025, leading to a total capacity increase of 7.31% for the year [2]. - The profitability of urea production is under pressure, with costs primarily driven by coal and natural gas prices, which account for about 70% of total production costs [2][3]. Cost Analysis - As of June 2025, the production costs for urea varied by production method, with natural gas-based urea costing 1971 CNY/ton, fixed bed process at 1917 CNY/ton, and fluidized bed process at 1478 CNY/ton [3]. - Profit margins for different production methods showed significant variation, with fixed bed and fluidized bed processes experiencing improved margins, while natural gas-based production faced losses [3]. Market Demand Dynamics - Agricultural demand for urea is expected to decline in July due to the seasonal off-peak period, with a potential rebound in August and September driven by fall fertilization and export activities [1][7]. - The overall agricultural demand is supported by the ongoing construction of high-standard farmland, which is projected to increase urea consumption [7][8]. - Industrial demand for urea, particularly from melamine and urea-formaldehyde resin sectors, remains stagnant due to weak real estate market conditions and export challenges [9]. Inventory and Export Policies - Urea port inventories have been rising since May 2025, with expectations of continued accumulation in the third quarter, influenced by export policies and market conditions [10][11]. - The export policy for urea has been clarified, with a total export quota of 2 million tons set for May to October 2025, which may help alleviate some supply pressures [11][12]. Seasonal Trends and Future Outlook - The second half of 2025 is characterized by seasonal demand fluctuations, with expectations of lower production utilization rates due to the agricultural off-season and potential winter heating demands impacting natural gas supply [6][12]. - Overall, the urea market is anticipated to remain oversupplied, with price pressures expected to persist unless significant changes occur in export policies or seasonal storage strategies [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term probability of an increase in urea production is high due to few short - term maintenance plans and some device restarts, despite a recent slight decrease in daily output caused by new device maintenance. [3] - Domestic agricultural demand is advancing slowly with limited rigid demand, and the autumn fertilizer production stage has begun. The compound fertilizer enterprise operating rate is rising steadily but slowly, and the melamine operating rate has rebounded but may be restricted by weak downstream demand. [3] - Some urea enterprise inventories are decreasing rapidly, and the overall inventory is mainly decreasing, though still much higher than the same period in previous years. The overall inventory reduction speed may weaken as previous export orders enter the later stage, but export expectations still support the price. [3] - It is recommended to trade the UR2509 contract in the range of 1750 - 1830 yuan/ton in the short term. [3] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1812 yuan/ton, up 67 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread is 32 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan. [3] - The position of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 195,949 lots, up 7,222 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 28,247 lots, down 605 lots. [3] - The exchange warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou urea are 2,523 lots, with no change. [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Anhui are 1770, 1810, 1810, 1830, and 1820 yuan/ton respectively, all with varying increases. [3] - The FOB prices in the Baltic Sea and China's main port are 437.5 and 435 US dollars/ton respectively, up 10 and 25 US dollars. [3] - The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 18 yuan/ton, down 47 yuan. [3] 3.3 Industry Situation - The port inventory is 54.1 tons, up 5.2 tons week - on - week; the enterprise inventory is 89.55 tons, down 7.22 tons week - on - week. [3] - The urea enterprise operating rate is 84.46%, down 0.8%; the daily urea output is 195,500 tons, down 1,900 tons. [3] - The urea export volume is 0, with no change; the monthly urea output is 6,031,340 tons, down 261,890 tons. [3] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 32.55%, up 2.72%; the melamine operating rate is 64.24%, up 1.68%. [3] - The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China is 91 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with externally purchased urea is - 490 yuan/ton, up 156 yuan. [3] - The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 416.82 tons, down 64.08 tons; the weekly output of melamine is 31,900 tons, up 900 tons. [3] 3.5 Industry News - As of July 16, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 89.55 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7.22 tons or 7.46%. [3] - As of July 17, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 54.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.2 tons or 10.63%. [3] - As of July 17, China's urea output was 136.87 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.31 tons or 0.95%, and the average daily output was 19.55 tons, a decrease of 0.19 tons. The capacity utilization rate was 84.46%, down 0.80%. [3] 3.6 Suggestions - Pay attention to Longzhong's enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate on Thursday. [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Cross-period: None; Cross-variety: Short the coal-based production profit at high levels [3] Core View - The total inventory of urea enterprises decreased by 72,200 tons to 896,000 tons. The inventory of urea enterprises continued to decline, while the port inventory continued to increase due to good urea exports and increased port collection willingness. The production of urea enterprises remained high with few maintenance plans. Currently in the peak agricultural demand season, agricultural demand continued to advance, the start - up of compound fertilizers increased, and the demand for urea showed a phased increase. Industrial demand remained weak [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - It includes figures such as the market price of small - particle urea in Shandong and Henan, the basis of Shandong and Henan main - continuous contracts, the price of the urea main - continuous contract, and the 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1 spreads [1][7][8] 2. Urea Production - It includes figures of urea weekly production and urea plant maintenance loss [18] 3. Urea Production Profit and Start - up Rate - It includes figures of production cost, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate [18][20] 4. Urea Outer - Market Price and Export Profit - It includes figures of the FOB price of small - particle urea in the Baltic Sea, the CFR price of large - particle urea in Southeast Asia, the FOB price of small - particle and large - particle urea in China, and urea export profit and disk export profit [23][25][32] 5. Urea Downstream Start - up and Orders - It includes figures of compound fertilizer start - up rate, melamine start - up rate, and urea enterprise advance order days [1][46] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - It includes figures of upstream in - plant inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, and futures warehouse receipts [2][44]