11月末，规模以上工业企业应收账款28.40万亿元，同比增长5.5%；产成品存货6.92万亿元，增长 4.6%。 1—11月份，规模以上工业企业每百元营业收入中的成本为85.50元，同比增加0.18元；每百元营业收入 中的费用为8.39元，同比减少0.06元。 11月末，规模以上工业企业每百元资产实现的营业收入为74.4元，同比减少2.4元；人均营业收入为 186.5万元，同比增加5.7万元；产成品存货周转天数为20.5天，同比增加0.6天；应收账款平均回收期为 70.4天，同比增加3.7天。 11月份，规模以上工业企业利润同比下降13.1%。 1—11月份，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额66268.6亿元，同比增长0.1%（按可比口径计算，详见 附注二）。 1—11月份，规模以上工业企业中，国有控股企业实现利润总额20083.6亿元，同比下降1.6%；股份制企 业实现利润总额49565.6亿元，下降0.4%；外商及港澳台投资企业实现利润总额16355.3亿元，增长 2.4%；私营企业实现利润总额19319.9亿元，下降0.1%。 1—11月份，采矿业实现利润总额7896.3亿元，同比下降27.2%；制造业 ...

1—11月份，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额66268.6亿元，同比增长0.1%(按可比口径计算，详见 附注二)。 1—11月份，规模以上工业企业中，国有控股企业实现利润总额20083.6亿元，同比下降1.6%；股份制企 业实现利润总额49565.6亿元，下降0.4%；外商及港澳台投资企业实现利润总额16355.3亿元，增长 2.4%；私营企业实现利润总额19319.9亿元，下降0.1%。 1—11月份，采矿业实现利润总额7896.3亿元，同比下降27.2%；制造业实现利润总额50317.9亿元，增 长5.0%；电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业实现利润总额8054.4亿元，增长8.4%。 1—11月份，主要行业利润情况如下：计算机、通信和其他电子设备制造业利润同比增长15.0%，电 力、热力生产和供应业增长11.8%，有色金属冶炼和压延加工业增长11.1%，汽车制造业增长7.5%，农 副食品加工业增长4.8%，通用设备制造业增长4.8%，专用设备制造业增长4.6%，电气机械和器材制造 业增长4.2%，石油、煤炭及其他燃料加工业同比减亏，非金属矿物制品业下降4.6%，化学原料和化学 制品制造业下降6.9%，纺 ...

金融期货早评 宏观：关注下任美联储主席人选动态 【市场资讯】1）特朗普称明年初将宣布美联储主席人选，暗示哈塞特。新美联储通讯社： 哈塞特当选美联储主席已"内部确定"。2）美国假日购物季"开门红"！美国零售联合会：感 恩节假日购物人数飙至超 2 亿人次。3）欧元区 11 月 CPI 回升至 2.2%，服务业价格顽固， 欧央行 12 月降息"几无可能"。 【核心逻辑】国内方面，10 月份受上年同期基数抬高、财务费用增长较快等因素影响，规 模以上工业企业利润同比下降 5.5%。当前工业企业利润增速受"量价双弱"格局拖累，边际 回落特征显著，营收利润率偏弱的态势未得到明显改善。展望短期，预计年内规模以上工 业企业利润增速将持续面临较大压力，大概率维持弱势震荡格局。中长期来看，随着宏观 托底政策逐步落地见效，叠加"反内卷"相关政策推动行业竞争格局优化，企业经营环境将 逐步改善，2025 年工业企业盈利有望进入逐步修复通道。中国 11 月官方制造业 PMI 环比 回升至 49.2，整体呈现边际改善趋势，但弱于季节性表现。海外方面，11 月以来，美元指 数两度站上 100 点。回顾两轮突破 100 点的过程，我们认为其强势 ...

Group 1: Regulatory Developments - The State Council discussed the draft amendment to the Certified Public Accountants Law, emphasizing the need for stronger legal constraints and industry supervision to promote the healthy development of the CPA industry and protect investor rights [6][7]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) stated that stablecoins are a form of virtual currency, which do not have the same legal status as fiat currencies and pose risks related to money laundering and illegal financial activities [11][12]. - A new regulation was released by PBOC and other financial authorities, allowing banks to conduct customer due diligence based on risk rather than a one-size-fits-all approach, enhancing customer experience while maintaining financial security [12][13]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - From January to October, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China increased by 1.9% year-on-year, totaling 59,502.9 billion yuan, marking a continuous growth for three months since August [14]. - In October, the profits of these enterprises saw a year-on-year decline of 5.5%, attributed to a high base from the previous year and rising financial costs [14]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Insights - The Governor of the Bank of Japan indicated a potential interest rate hike in December, citing moderate economic recovery and the importance of wage negotiations, while emphasizing that any rate increase would still maintain a loose monetary environment [8][9]. - The Bank of Japan is expected to make a decision on interest rates based on a comprehensive review of domestic and international economic conditions [9]. Group 4: Technological Financial Initiatives - The first meeting of the Technology Finance Coordination Mechanism was held to support high-level technological self-reliance, focusing on differentiated financial support for technology innovation and fostering a favorable environment for technology finance development [10][11]. - The meeting aims to enhance collaboration across departments and promote effective allocation of financial resources to support technological advancements [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Q4 economic downward pressure may rise. The manufacturing PMI rebounded in November, but corporate profits may continue to be under pressure. The traditional investment - driven economic model may be unsustainable. Consumption and exports may face pressure. Policy rate cuts and incremental tools in the next six months may be key support measures [2][75]. - The current bond market has prominent allocation value, and bond yields may decline in a volatile manner. The report is bullish on the bond market, predicting that the 10Y Treasury yield will return to around 1.65%, the 30Y Treasury to 1.9%, and the 5Y large - bank secondary capital bonds to 1.9% (all referring to bonds without VAT) [4][76]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro News - In November, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2pct. The non - manufacturing business activity index was 49.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6pct. The comprehensive PMI output index was 49.7%, down 0.3pct from the previous month, indicating increased economic growth pressure [4][12]. - In October, the profits of large - scale industrial enterprises decreased by 5.5% year - on - year, and the revenue decreased by 3.3% year - on - year. From January to October, the total profits of large - scale industrial enterprises reached 5.95 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.9% [4][21]. - On November 25, the central bank conducted a 1000 - billion - yuan MLF operation, with a net investment of 100 billion yuan in November, the ninth consecutive month of increased roll - over [4][22]. 3.2 Medium - term High - frequency Data 3.2.1 Consumption - As of November 23, the daily average retail volume of passenger cars decreased by 6.6% year - on - year, and the daily average wholesale volume increased by 2.2% year - on - year. As of November 27, the 7 - day total national movie box office increased by 70.9% year - on - year. As of November 21, the total retail volume of three major household appliances decreased by 25.0% year - on - year, and the total retail sales decreased by 48.2% year - on - year [23][27]. 3.2.2 Transportation - As of November 23, the container throughput of ports increased by 12.8% year - on - year. As of November 28, the average subway passenger volume in first - tier cities increased by 3.2% year - on - year. The postal express pick - up volume increased by 8.2% year - on - year, the delivery volume increased by 7.0% year - on - year, the railway freight volume decreased by 0.5% year - on - year, and the highway truck traffic volume increased by 2.3% year - on - year [31][32]. 3.2.3 Industrial Operating Rates - As of November 26, the blast furnace operating rate of major steel enterprises was 76.8%, a year - on - year increase of 0.8pct. As of November 27, the average asphalt operating rate was 20.0%, a year - on - year decrease of 3.0pct. The soda ash operating rate was 81.9%, a year - on - year decrease of 5.0pct, and the PVC operating rate was 78.2%, a year - on - year increase of 0.4pct [40][42]. 3.2.4 Real Estate - As of November 28, the 7 - day total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 33.2% year - on - year. As of November 21, the second - hand housing transaction area in 9 sample cities decreased by 17.3% year - on - year [45]. 3.2.5 Prices - As of November 28, the average pork wholesale price decreased by 23.7% year - on - year, the vegetable wholesale price increased by 15.9% year - on - year, and the average price of 6 key fruits increased by 2.0% year - on - year. The average price of thermal coal at northern ports increased by 0.7% year - on - year, and the average WTI crude oil spot price decreased by 15.7% year - on - year [46]. 3.3 Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets - On November 28, most Treasury yields rose. The 1 - year/5 - year/10 - year/30 - year Treasury yields were 1.40%/1.62%/1.84%/2.19% respectively, compared with November 21, they changed by - 0.2BP/+2.8BP/+2.6BP/+2.8BP respectively. The yields of other bonds also had corresponding changes [59]. - On November 28, the U.S. dollar - to - RMB central parity rate and spot exchange rate were 7.08/7.08, down 86/309 pips from November 21 [69]. 3.4 Institutional Behavior - Since the beginning of 2025, the duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds for interest - rate bonds has shown a trend of first decreasing, then increasing, and then decreasing. As of November 28, the estimated average duration was about 5.0 years, and the median was about 4.2 years, compared with November 21, they changed by + 0.11/ - 0.20 years respectively [71]. - Since the beginning of 2025, the duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds for credit bonds has shown a volatile trend. As of November 28, the estimated average duration was about 2.0 years, and the median was about 2.1 years, compared with November 21, they changed by - 0.04/+0.05 years respectively [72]. 3.5 Investment Advice - The report is bullish on the bond market, believing that the current bond market has prominent allocation value. Due to domestic economic data pressure, high short - term interest rates, and the start of the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle, the policy rate may be cut by 20BP in the next six months [4][76].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Overseas, the US economy still shows resilience, with the GDPNow model predicting a 3.9% annualized quarterly GDP growth rate in Q3, driven by personal consumption and net exports. Consumption momentum is slowing, and attention should be paid to the released CPI and non - farm payroll data. Driven by rising interest - rate cut expectations and Russia - Ukraine peace - talk expectations, overseas risk assets generally recovered last week [2]. - Domestically, the November PMI and October industrial enterprise profits further confirm the weakening of the economic fundamentals in Q4. The manufacturing PMI is 49.2, remaining in the contraction range for eight consecutive months. The construction and service industries are also in the contraction range. October industrial enterprise profits declined, with manufacturing and public utilities being the main drags. A - shares had a weak rebound with shrinking volume last week, and short - term shocks are expected to be weak [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Overseas Macro - **US Retail in September**: US retail sales were weaker than expected in September. Retail sales increased 0.2% month - on - month (expected 0.4%, previous 0.6%), and core retail sales increased 0.3% month - on - month, in line with expectations. Durable goods consumption was divided, and non - durable goods still showed some resilience but with obvious structural differences [4][5]. 2. Domestic Macro - **October Industrial Enterprise Profits**: From January to October 2025, industrial enterprise revenues were 113.37 trillion yuan, with a 1.8% year - on - year increase. Total profits were 5950.29 billion yuan, a 1.9% year - on - year increase, significantly lower than September's 3.2%. The single - month profit growth rate in October dropped to - 5.5%. Upstream mining profits decreased less, while mid - and downstream profits cooled significantly. Enterprises were accumulating inventory, and profit margins were the main drag on profits [9][10]. - **November Manufacturing PMI**: The November manufacturing PMI was 49.2, still in the contraction range. Supply and demand improved synchronously, with external demand improving significantly. Prices rose, and finished - product inventory decreased. The service industry's prosperity declined, and the construction industry was still struggling [12][13]. 3. Performance of Major Asset Classes - **Equities**: A - shares, Hong Kong stocks, and overseas equities showed different trends last week. For example, the Wande All - A Index rose 2.90%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.40%, and the Nasdaq Index rose 4.91% [23]. - **Bonds**: Yields of domestic and overseas bonds changed last week. For example, the 1 - year Chinese Treasury bond yield decreased by 0.42 basis points, and the 2 - year US Treasury bond yield decreased by 4.00 basis points [26]. - **Commodities**: Commodity prices generally rose last week. For example, the South China Commodity Index rose 1.99%, COMEX gold rose 4.34%, and COMEX silver rose 14.37% [27]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index declined, and exchange rates of major currencies against the RMB changed. For example, the US dollar against the RMB decreased by 0.43% [30]. 4. High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Domestic**: The report provides charts of high - frequency data such as the congestion index of 100 cities, subway passenger volume in 23 cities, and commercial housing transaction area in 30 cities [32]. - **Overseas**: The report provides charts of high - frequency data such as Redbook commercial retail sales and unemployment insurance claims in the US [37]. 5. This Week's Important Economic Data and Events - This week, important economic data and events include China's November RatingDog manufacturing PMI, euro - zone November CPI, and US November ISM manufacturing PMI [46].

Report Information - Report Title: Huaxian Futures Macroeconomic Monthly Report - The Downward Trend of the Real Estate Sector Accelerates, Pay Attention to Policy Stimulus at the End of the Year [1] - Author: Shi Shuyu - Date: 2025-11-30 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - From January to October 2025, the profits and revenues of industrial enterprises above designated size increased year-on-year, but the growth rate slowed down, and the profit in October decreased year-on-year. Different industries showed varying degrees of profit changes [8]. - In October 2025, the CPI rose slightly, and is expected to maintain a moderate upward trend. Food prices decreased, while non - food prices increased [8]. - In October 2025, the electricity consumption of the whole society reached a new monthly high, with significant growth in the electricity consumption of various industries [10]. - In October 2025, the fiscal revenue increased year-on-year, while the fiscal expenditure decreased year-on-year, with significant declines in some expenditure items [10]. - In October 2025, the prices of second - hand and new residential properties in first, second, and third - tier cities showed different degrees of decline [10]. - From January to October 2025, the decline in fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) expanded, and the decline in real estate development investment, new construction, and sales also deepened [13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Viewpoint - **Industrial Enterprises**: From January to October 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size was 5950.29 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.9% (previous value 3.2%); the operating revenue was 113.37 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.8% (previous value 2.4%). In October, the profit decreased by 5.5% year-on-year[8]. - **CPI**: In October 2025, the national CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year. Food prices decreased by 2.9%, non - food prices increased by 0.9%, consumer prices decreased by 0.2%, and service prices increased by 0.8%. From January to October, the average CPI decreased by 0.1% compared with the same period last year[8]. - **Electricity Consumption**: In October 2025, the electricity consumption of the whole society was 857.2 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 10.4%. From January to October, the cumulative electricity consumption was 8624.6 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%[10]. - **Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure**: From January to October 2025, the cumulative general fiscal revenue was 18.65 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. In October, the general fiscal revenue was 2.26 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.16%. From January to October, the cumulative general fiscal expenditure was 22.58 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2%. In October, the general fiscal expenditure was 1.78 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 9.78%[10]. - **Real Estate Market**: In October 2025, the prices of second - hand and new residential properties in first, second, and third - tier cities showed different degrees of decline[10]. - **Fixed - Asset Investment**: From January to October 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 40891.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. The decline in real estate development investment, new construction, and sales also deepened[13]. 3.2 National Economic Accounting - The report presents the quarterly year - on - year growth rates of GDP and its various components from 2023 to 2025, including agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, industry, construction, and services[16]. - It also shows the contribution rates of various industries to GDP and the pulling effects on GDP growth[21]. 3.3 Industry Analysis - **Industrial Growth**: The growth rate of industrial added value of industries above designated size showed fluctuations. Different industries had different growth rates, such as coal mining and non - metallic mineral products industries showing varying performances[32]. - **Industrial Output**: The report provides the production data of major industrial products from 2024 to 2025, such as crude oil, coal, and steel[34]. - **Industry Electricity Consumption**: The electricity consumption of different industries showed different growth trends. Some industries, such as the textile and clothing industry, had relatively high growth rates in electricity consumption[43]. - **Industrial Enterprise Profits**: From January to October 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size increased year - on - year, but the growth rate slowed down. Different industries had different profit situations, with some industries showing growth and others showing decline[46]. - **Industrial Enterprise Inventory**: As of the end of September 2025, the inventory of finished products of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 2.8%. The inventory situation of different industries also varied[58]. 3.4 Price Index - **CPI**: In October 2025, the CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year. Different CPI components showed different price changes, such as food prices decreasing and non - food prices increasing[64]. - **PPI**: In October 2025, the national PPI decreased by 2.1% year - on - year, and the decline narrowed compared with the previous month. The prices of production materials and living materials also showed different changes[71].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report - Domestic industrial enterprise profit growth is currently dragged down by the "weak volume and price" situation, with significant marginal decline. In the short - term, it will face pressure and maintain a weak oscillation. In the long - term, it is expected to enter a repair channel in 2025 [2]. - The upward space of the US dollar index is limited, and it will maintain a high - level oscillation in the short - term. The release of November non - farm payroll data and the determination of the Fed chair candidate will test its resilience [2]. - The RMB exchange rate will likely show a complex pattern of depreciation trend (appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar) and volatility risks coexisting within the year. In the short - term, it will be robust and strong, but the appreciation speed may slow down, and the two - way fluctuation will be more obvious [4][5]. - The stock index trading atmosphere is sluggish and is expected to continue to oscillate in the short - term. In the long - term, the logic of valuation repair driven by liquidity easing remains unchanged [6][7]. - The mid - term outlook for treasury bonds is not pessimistic. Although the market is weak due to rumors, the economic fundamentals suggest that interest rates will remain low for some time, waiting for monetary policy signals [8]. - The container shipping European line futures are expected to maintain a weak oscillation in the short - term, with geopolitical trends as the key variable [11][12]. - Precious metals prices are expected to continue rising in the long - term, driven by central bank gold purchases and investment demand. In the short - term, low inventory and potential demand release will increase the upward elasticity of prices [14][16]. - Copper prices are expected to continue to break through at the end of the year. The impact of PMI data and US ADP employment changes on market sentiment should be noted [17][20]. - Aluminum is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, mainly affected by macro - sentiment and the rise of copper and silver. Alumina will run weakly, and cast aluminum alloy will oscillate strongly [20][21]. - Zinc prices are expected to continue to build a bottom, with short - term strong oscillation due to supply contraction and demand decline [23]. - Nickel and stainless steel will maintain a wide - range oscillation, with a downward trend due to weak fundamentals. Tin prices will maintain a high - level oscillation, and it is recommended to enter the market on dips [23][25]. - Carbonate lithium prices will be in a game range, waiting for a driving force. It is recommended to avoid chasing high prices near 100,000 yuan/ton and seize opportunities to build positions on dips [26][27]. - Industrial silicon will be in a weak supply - demand situation, with short - term oscillation and long - term value for position building on dips. Polysilicon trading is shifting to the game between warehouse receipts and positions, and position risks should be noted [28][31]. - Lead prices are expected to oscillate between 16,900 - 17,300 yuan, with strong support at 16,700 yuan [32]. - Steel prices are expected to oscillate strongly, with the operating range of rebar at 3,000 - 3,300 yuan and hot - rolled coil at 3,200 - 3,500 yuan. Attention should be paid to the destocking speed and downstream consumption [33][35]. - Iron ore prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, with short - term valuation repair. It is recommended to take profits on long positions at high prices [36][37]. - Coking coal and coke prices are under pressure. For coking coal, short - term short positions can be held, and long positions can be considered for the far - month contract after a stable signal. For coke, it is not recommended to blindly participate in the downward market [38][39]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to oscillate weakly due to high inventory and weak demand [40][41]. - Crude oil prices will continue to oscillate, with a long - term downward trend due to supply - surplus pressure. Attention should be paid to OPEC+ policy implementation and the progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks [43][45]. - LPG prices are supported by supply - demand conditions and the external market, although the domestic LPG valuation is relatively high [47][48]. - PX - PTA prices may fall back after the departure of speculation funds. It is recommended to consider building long positions on dips, with attention to maintenance plans and blending oil dynamics [49][53]. - MEG prices have a weakened downward drive, and it is recommended to sell call options. The long - term supply - surplus situation remains unchanged [55][57]. - Urea prices are expected to continue to oscillate, with the downside space supported and the upside pressured [58][59]. - PP prices are supported by the cost side. Attention should be paid to the PDH device operation status and basis changes [60][63]. - PE prices are expected to continue to oscillate after a rebound. Attention should be paid to the spot situation and basis changes [64][65]. - Pure benzene and styrene prices are affected by device maintenance. Pure benzene shows a near - weak and far - strong pattern, while styrene shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern [66][68]. - High - sulfur fuel oil cracking is expected to decline, and low - sulfur fuel oil cracking may rebound after the stabilization of Dar Blend discount [69][70]. - Asphalt prices will maintain a weak oscillation in the short - term, with attention to winter storage policies [71][72]. - Rubber and 20 - number rubber prices are expected to oscillate strongly [73]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: China's November official manufacturing PMI rebounded to 49.2, and the high - tech manufacturing PMI remained above 50 for 10 consecutive months. The US "Black Friday" sales increased by 4.1% year - on - year, and the AI traffic soared by 600%. The US - Ukraine negotiation was considered "productive" [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.0794 on the previous trading day, up 12 points. The RMB against the US dollar central parity rate was 7.0789, down 10 points. The RMB exchange rate is expected to show a complex pattern of appreciation and volatility risks [3][4]. - **Stock Index**: The trading atmosphere is sluggish, and it is expected to oscillate in the short - term. In the long - term, the logic of valuation repair driven by liquidity easing remains unchanged [6][7]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The mid - term outlook is not pessimistic. Although the market is weak due to rumors, the economic fundamentals suggest that interest rates will remain low for some time, waiting for monetary policy signals [7][8]. - **Container Shipping European Line**: The futures are expected to maintain a weak oscillation in the short - term, with geopolitical trends as the key variable [11][12]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: Precious metals prices are expected to continue rising in the long - term, driven by central bank gold purchases and investment demand. In the short - term, low inventory and potential demand release will increase the upward elasticity of prices [14][16]. - **Copper**: Copper prices are expected to continue to break through at the end of the year. The impact of PMI data and US ADP employment changes on market sentiment should be noted [17][20]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, mainly affected by macro - sentiment and the rise of copper and silver. Alumina will run weakly, and cast aluminum alloy will oscillate strongly [20][21]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices are expected to continue to build a bottom, with short - term strong oscillation due to supply contraction and demand decline [23]. - **Nickel, Stainless Steel**: Nickel and stainless steel will maintain a wide - range oscillation, with a downward trend due to weak fundamentals [23][24]. - **Tin**: Tin prices will maintain a high - level oscillation, and it is recommended to enter the market on dips [25]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Carbonate lithium prices will be in a game range, waiting for a driving force. It is recommended to avoid chasing high prices near 100,000 yuan/ton and seize opportunities to build positions on dips [26][27]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon will be in a weak supply - demand situation, with short - term oscillation and long - term value for position building on dips. Polysilicon trading is shifting to the game between warehouse receipts and positions, and position risks should be noted [28][31]. - **Lead**: Lead prices are expected to oscillate between 16,900 - 17,300 yuan, with strong support at 16,700 yuan [32]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: Steel prices are expected to oscillate strongly, with the operating range of rebar at 3,000 - 3,300 yuan and hot - rolled coil at 3,200 - 3,500 yuan. Attention should be paid to the destocking speed and downstream consumption [33][35]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, with short - term valuation repair. It is recommended to take profits on long positions at high prices [36][37]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: Coking coal and coke prices are under pressure. For coking coal, short - term short positions can be held, and long positions can be considered for the far - month contract after a stable signal. For coke, it is not recommended to blindly participate in the downward market [38][39]. - **Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese**: Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to oscillate weakly due to high inventory and weak demand [40][41]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Crude oil prices will continue to oscillate, with a long - term downward trend due to supply - surplus pressure. Attention should be paid to OPEC+ policy implementation and the progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks [43][45]. - **LPG**: LPG prices are supported by supply - demand conditions and the external market, although the domestic LPG valuation is relatively high [47][48]. - **PTA - PX**: PX - PTA prices may fall back after the departure of speculation funds. It is recommended to consider building long positions on dips, with attention to maintenance plans and blending oil dynamics [49][53]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: MEG prices have a weakened downward drive, and it is recommended to sell call options. The long - term supply - surplus situation remains unchanged [55][57]. - **Urea**: Urea prices are expected to continue to oscillate, with the downside space supported and the upside pressured [58][59]. - **PP**: PP prices are supported by the cost side. Attention should be paid to the PDH device operation status and basis changes [60][63]. - **PE**: PE prices are expected to continue to oscillate after a rebound. Attention should be paid to the spot situation and basis changes [64][65]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: Pure benzene and styrene prices are affected by device maintenance. Pure benzene shows a near - weak and far - strong pattern, while styrene shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern [66][68]. - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil cracking is expected to decline, and low - sulfur fuel oil cracking may rebound after the stabilization of Dar Blend discount [69][70]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt prices will maintain a weak oscillation in the short - term, with attention to winter storage policies [71][72]. - **Rubber & 20 - number Rubber**: Rubber and 20 - number rubber prices are expected to oscillate strongly [73].

Core Viewpoint - The industrial enterprise profit growth rate in October has turned negative, indicating a significant decline in profitability compared to the previous month, influenced by revenue fluctuations and rising costs [2][4][18]. Group 1: Profit Data Overview - In October, the profit growth rate for industrial enterprises was -5.5%, a sharp decline from 21.6% in the previous month [2][18]. - The revenue growth rate for October was -3.3%, down from 3.1% in September, highlighting a significant drop in income [4][10]. - The profit margin for October was 5.11%, down from 5.42% in the same month last year, reflecting a decrease of 0.31% [5][18]. Group 2: Revenue and Cost Analysis - The increase in costs was driven by a rise in the expense ratio, which reached 8.46% in October, compared to 8.08% in the same month last year [5][11]. - The decline in revenue was particularly pronounced in the downstream consumption sector, with a revenue growth rate of -13.48% in October [4][10]. - Several industries experienced significant revenue declines, including beverages (-25%), textiles and clothing (-28.4%), and furniture (-22%) [4][10]. Group 3: Industry Performance - The mining sector saw a profit growth rate of -12.04%, while the manufacturing sector's growth rate was -9.2% in October [20]. - The asset growth rate for industrial enterprises was 4.7% in October, which is expected to remain below the GDP growth rate for the year [6][15]. - The equipment manufacturing sector showed a profit growth of 7.8% from January to October, contributing positively to the overall industrial profit [20][21].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Overall Economic Situation**: Overseas, the US employment data shows significant differentiation, and the Fed officials' recent statements strengthen the expectation of a December interest rate cut. Domestically, the economic fundamentals are cooling marginally, and the market's expectation of policy intensification is rising [2]. - **Renminbi Exchange Rate**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar is expected to show a "sideways bottoming, slowly declining central tendency" trend. In the short term, the appreciation rhythm may slow down, but the overall appreciation trend remains unchanged [3]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index is expected to have a narrow - range sideways movement in the short term due to weak fundamentals and lack of new positive factors [4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The medium - term view is to hold long positions, and new long positions can be gradually established at low prices [5]. - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The container shipping to Europe futures is expected to be sideways and weak in the short term, with geopolitical expectations dominating the market sentiment [7]. - **Precious Metals**: In the medium - to - long term, the price of precious metals will continue to rise. In the short term, pay attention to the December Fed interest rate cut expectation and the 60 - day moving average. Dips are considered opportunities to increase long positions [10]. - **Copper**: The futures price is expected to move upwards if it breaks through 87,000. Downstream enterprises in need can buy futures for hedging [12]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to have a high - level sideways movement; alumina is expected to be weak; cast aluminum alloy is expected to have a high - level sideways movement [13]. - **Zinc**: Zinc is expected to have a strong sideways movement in the short term due to stalemate fundamentals [14]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: They are expected to continue their wide - range sideways movement, with limited improvement in fundamentals [15]. - **Tin**: Tin is expected to have a high - level sideways movement. It is not recommended to short in the short term [17]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In the short term, be cautious about chasing high prices near 100,000 yuan/ton. In the medium - to - long term, seize the opportunity to build long positions after dips [19]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is expected to have a sideways movement in the short term and has long - term value for position building at low prices. Polysilicon should pay attention to position risks [21]. - **Lead**: Lead is expected to move sideways between 16,800 - 17,100 yuan/ton [24]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: They are expected to move within a range, with rebar between 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton and hot - rolled coil between 3,100 - 3,400 yuan/ton [26]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore is currently strong, but it is recommended to wait for the basis to repair and then consider shorting at high prices [28]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal has limited downward space and has long - term multi - allocation potential for the far - month contract. For coke, it is not recommended to blindly short [29]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: They are expected to be sideways and weak due to high inventory and weak demand [31]. - **LPG**: The domestic LPG is relatively strong, and the short - term arrival is expected to remain low [32]. - **PTA - PX**: The PX - PTA may decline after the previous speculation funds leave. The TA01 contract has a large pressure above 4,800 yuan, and the processing fee should be operated within the 200 - 290 range [35]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: Maintain the idea of shorting at high prices. Consider shorting or selling call options above 3,900 yuan for the 01 contract [37]. - **PP**: PP is expected to maintain a low - level sideways movement due to weak spot prices and lack of upward drivers [39]. - **PE**: PE is expected to continue its supply - strong and demand - weak situation, and a put - option strategy can be considered [42]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: Pay attention to the actual transaction of US - South Korea pure benzene and the domestic large - factory maintenance plan [44]. - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur fuel oil cracking is expected to decline in the future, while the low - sulfur fuel oil cracking has an upward drive [45][47]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt is expected to move sideways in the short term. Pay attention to the winter storage policy [49]. - **Rubber and 20 - Rubber**: The rubber system is expected to maintain a wide - range sideways movement, with light - colored rubber relatively stronger [51]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda**: Soda ash is expected to be weak; glass 01 contract will follow the reality, and pay attention to the cold - repair situation; caustic soda has weak supply - demand fundamentals [52][53][54]. - **Pulp and Offset Paper**: They are expected to maintain a sideways or sideways - weak movement in the short term [56]. - **Log**: The log market is expected to be sideways and weak. Consider shorting at high prices and 01 - 03 reverse - spread opportunities [57]. - **Propylene**: Propylene is under the weak pressure of PP, and the domestic supply remains loose [59]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The profit of domestic industrial enterprises is declining marginally. The US employment data is differentiated, and the Fed's December interest rate cut expectation is strengthened [1][2]. - **Renminbi Exchange Rate**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.0806, down 4 points. The mid - price appreciated to the highest level since October 14, 2024. It is expected to show a "sideways bottoming, slowly declining central tendency" trend [3]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index rose and then fell, with shrinking trading volume. It is expected to have a narrow - range sideways movement in the short term [4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The treasury bonds were sideways on Thursday. It is recommended to hold long positions in the medium term and gradually build new long positions at low prices [4][5]. - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The container shipping to Europe futures was narrowly sideways. It is expected to be sideways and weak in the short term, with geopolitical expectations dominating the market sentiment [5][7]. Commodities Non - Ferrous Metals - **Precious Metals**: Platinum and palladium rose and then fell, while gold and silver maintained a sideways movement. The Fed's December interest rate cut expectation is high. It is expected that the price of precious metals will rise in the medium - to - long term [8][10]. - **Copper**: The INE copper price rose sharply. The global copper market is expected to be in short supply in 2026. The futures price is expected to move upwards if it breaks through 87,000 [11][12]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to have a high - level sideways movement; alumina is expected to be weak; cast aluminum alloy is expected to have a high - level sideways movement [13][14]. - **Zinc**: Zinc is expected to have a strong sideways movement in the short term due to stalemate fundamentals [14]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: They are expected to continue their wide - range sideways movement, with limited improvement in fundamentals [15][16]. - **Tin**: Tin is expected to have a high - level sideways movement. It is not recommended to short in the short term [17]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures price fell. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing high prices near 100,000 yuan/ton in the short term and seize the opportunity to build long positions after dips in the medium - to - long term [18][19]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is expected to have a sideways movement in the short term and has long - term value for position building at low prices. Polysilicon should pay attention to position risks [19][21]. - **Lead**: Lead is expected to move sideways between 16,800 - 17,100 yuan/ton [24]. Ferrous Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: They are expected to move within a range, with rebar between 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton and hot - rolled coil between 3,100 - 3,400 yuan/ton [25][26]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore is currently strong, but it is recommended to wait for the basis to repair and then consider shorting at high prices [28]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal has limited downward space and has long - term multi - allocation potential for the far - month contract. For coke, it is not recommended to blindly short [29][30]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: They are expected to be sideways and weak due to high inventory and weak demand [31]. Energy and Chemicals - **LPG**: The domestic LPG is relatively strong, and the short - term arrival is expected to remain low [32]. - **PTA - PX**: The PX - PTA may decline after the previous speculation funds leave. The TA01 contract has a large pressure above 4,800 yuan, and the processing fee should be operated within the 200 - 290 range [35]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: Maintain the idea of shorting at high prices. Consider shorting or selling call options above 3,900 yuan for the 01 contract [37]. - **PP**: PP is expected to maintain a low - level sideways movement due to weak spot prices and lack of upward drivers [39]. - **PE**: PE is expected to continue its supply - strong and demand - weak situation, and a put - option strategy can be considered [42]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: Pay attention to the actual transaction of US - South Korea pure benzene and the domestic large - factory maintenance plan [44]. - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur fuel oil cracking is expected to decline in the future, while the low - sulfur fuel oil cracking has an upward drive [45][47]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt is expected to move sideways in the short term. Pay attention to the winter storage policy [49]. - **Rubber and 20 - Rubber**: The rubber system is expected to maintain a wide - range sideways movement, with light - colored rubber relatively stronger [51]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda**: Soda ash is expected to be weak; glass 01 contract will follow the reality, and pay attention to the cold - repair situation; caustic soda has weak supply - demand fundamentals [52][53][54]. - **Pulp and Offset Paper**: They are expected to maintain a sideways or sideways - weak movement in the short term [56]. - **Log**: The log market is expected to be sideways and weak. Consider shorting at high prices and 01 - 03 reverse - spread opportunities [57]. - **Propylene**: Propylene is under the weak pressure of PP, and the domestic supply remains loose [59].