Market Overview - The overall stock market has returned to early-year levels, but corporate earnings and consumer confidence indicators are showing signs of weakness [1] - Uncertainties in the market are largely stemming from Washington, particularly regarding tariff and tax policy disputes, with no short-term resolution in sight [1] Historical Summer Performance - Historical data from American Century Investments indicates that summer markets have recorded gains in 38 out of the last 50 years, with an average increase of approximately 3.9% from May 1 to October 31 [2] - Despite this positive historical performance, the current market conditions for the summer of 2025 present several warning signals, including a near 21 times forward P/E ratio for the S&P 500, approaching levels seen in the late 1990s [2] Current Market Sentiment - The first quarter earnings season showed strong performance, with 78% of S&P 500 companies exceeding earnings expectations, slightly above the five-year average of 77% [3] - However, there has been an increase in the mention of "recession" during earnings calls, marking the highest frequency since 2022 [3] - Analyst sentiment is also cautious, with Yardeni Research reporting the worst record in two years for the ratio of analysts raising versus lowering earnings and revenue forecasts [3] Key Events Impacting Summer Market - Ongoing disputes over tariffs and tax policies are contributing to market volatility, with significant fluctuations often following President Trump's trade policy announcements [3] - Upcoming trade negotiations between the U.S. and Japan are set for May 30, with Japan seeking to expand investments in the U.S. and modify import regulations, although the U.S. remains cautious regarding auto tariffs [4] - The U.S. and EU trade talks have gained momentum after Trump backed off from imposing tariffs, but uncertainty remains among EU businesses regarding the outcome of these negotiations [4] Legislative Developments - A new tax and spending bill proposed by Republicans, referred to as the "Beautiful Bill," is facing resistance due to concerns over increasing the deficit, with key senators expressing the need for significant modifications [5] - The bond market is showing signs of unease, with 30-year Treasury yields exceeding 5%, nearing the highest levels since 2007 [5] Federal Reserve's Role - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain high short-term interest rates to combat inflation, with meetings scheduled for June 17-18 and July 29-30 [6] - Current market expectations suggest a greater than 70% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged, but any unexpected rate cuts could lead to a stock market rebound unless economic data indicates a looming recession [6]

Marex Group (MRX) Q1 2025 Earnings Call May 15, 2025 09:00 AM ET Speaker0 Day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Marek's Q1 twenty twenty five Earnings Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there'll be a question and answer session. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Adam Strachan, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead. Speaker1 Goo ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing volatility at the beginning of Trump's second term, but this may not be a significant issue as some strategists believe it could lead to beneficial outcomes for investors [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions and Predictions - Following the November 5 election, the market surged as investors anticipated a business-friendly approach from President Trump [1]. - During Trump's first 100 days, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 both fell over 4%, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped nearly 8% [3]. - Strategists are finding reasons to believe that Trump may not fulfill his campaign promises, leading to skepticism about the market's optimistic outlook [3]. Group 2: Uncertainty and Its Implications - Albert Edwards argues that uncertainty, often seen as a market enemy, could actually benefit Wall Street by keeping investors alert [3][4]. - The term "uncertainty" has become prevalent in discussions, especially after Fed Chair Jerome Powell used it extensively in a March press conference [3]. - Edwards suggests that excessive certainty can lead to increased debt levels, which could be detrimental to the market [4][5]. Group 3: Economic Conditions and Corporate Impact - The Federal Reserve's attempts to ensure a soft landing and reduce volatility may inadvertently encourage credit and financial bubbles [6][7]. - Edwards warns that the current political climate, characterized by populist interventionist policies, could undermine the stock market's bullish trend [10]. - He highlights the issue of price gouging during the pandemic, where unit costs rose while corporate profit margins reached record highs, indicating a potential shift in regulatory stance under Trump [10]. Group 4: Future Regulatory Changes - Edwards anticipates that Trump may push for stronger competition regulations, which could negatively impact corporate profit margins as companies are forced to absorb increased costs from tariffs [10]. - The potential for regulatory changes could create further uncertainty in the market, which may not be the worst outcome for investors [11].

下图展示了新闻对短期波动性的预测效力。为聚焦于预测波动性本身，而非价格变动方向，我们根据所有历 史每日收益率z分数的绝对值进行分组处理，并绘制出前72小时的平均新闻z分数。LSEG新闻评分结果表 明，在回顾过去五年波动性处于前10%的交易日时，该评分呈现出显著的上升态势。 Amit Das LSEG新闻数据和API业务 探究在非常规交易时段公布的季度收益报告是怎样引发股价大幅变动的。 剖析收益报告披露后新闻报道量的大幅增长态势，并研究其与股票估值的相关性。 探索如何借助新闻情绪来预测收益报告披露后的价格变动趋势，进而挖掘具有价值的交易机会。 理解和管理波动性是交易和投资组合管理中的关键环节。波动性作为衡量业绩最常用指标——夏普比率公式 的重要组成部分，其重要性不言而喻。实际上，近年来市场对波动性的担忧持续升温。VIX指数是追踪市场 波动性的关键指数之一。可以看出，2020年是一个明显的转折点，自此美国市场的波动性呈上升态势。 2020年至今，VIX指数的平均收盘价约为21.7美元，较2015 至 2020年的平均收盘价涨幅超过40%。这种上 升态势并非仅由过去几年中那些我们期望仅出现一次的极端事件所驱动。深入 ...

加拿大央行高级副行长罗杰斯：对冲基金在压力时期更有可能从关键市场撤退，带来额外的波动性。 ...

Core Insights - The Bank of Canada warns that U.S. policies are unpredictable in the short term, which may increase market volatility [1] - In extreme cases, volatility could lead to disruptions in market functionality [1] - Prolonged trade wars are expected to heighten the risk of debt defaults [1]

开云集团CFO：我们对美国市场仍然非常谨慎，市场波动性很高。 ...