Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown significant growth in the first half of 2025, with major indices achieving new highs despite international uncertainties, indicating stronger-than-expected market momentum and increased inflow of real capital [2][9]. Group 1: Sources of Incremental Capital - Public funds have emerged as a key source of incremental capital, with an increase of 194.8 billion yuan in the first five months of 2025, primarily driven by ETF and index funds [2]. - The issuance of actively managed funds has improved recently, with the issuance volume of three types of active equity funds rising from 3.97 billion yuan at the beginning of the year to 28.78 billion yuan in the past month [3]. Group 2: Retail Investor Dynamics - Retail investors are considered a significant force due to their sensitivity to market trends, with net inflows of retail funds remaining high during the first quarter, reaching 618.3 billion yuan, 630.7 billion yuan, and 497.0 billion yuan in February, March, and April respectively [7]. - The number of retail accounts is also at a historically high level, suggesting that personal funds could continue to be a source of market growth as upward expectations develop [7]. Group 3: Institutional Investor Behavior - In contrast, institutional funds such as private equity and northbound capital have shown conservative adjustments in a relatively uncertain market environment, indicating limited short-term changes [9]. - Insurance funds have reached a historical high in stock holdings, totaling 2.8 trillion yuan, but their equity investment ratio is unlikely to increase significantly without supportive long-term policies [9]. Group 4: Market Feedback Mechanism - The positive feedback mechanism of incremental capital can significantly influence market trends and the evolution of market styles, helping to explain the sectoral differentiation observed in the first half of the year [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by the Shanghai Composite Index in breaking through the 3400-point barrier, highlighting the current high valuation levels and the lack of supportive policies or improved earnings expectations as key obstacles [4][10]. Valuation Analysis - The static PE ratio of the Wind All A (excluding financials) is currently at 31.51 times, which is at the 49th percentile since 2000, the 54th percentile over the past decade, and the 100th percentile over the last three years, indicating that the market is nearing its high tolerance for valuations [6][10]. - Compared to global equity markets, the valuation of Wind All A (excluding financials) is relatively high, with the Nasdaq at 44 times, S&P 500 (excluding financials) at approximately 30 times, and the Hang Seng Tech Index at 21 times, suggesting that A-shares lack a solid foundation to maintain levels above 3400 points [9][10]. Market Conditions - The article emphasizes that without new incremental policy support or significant improvements in earnings expectations, the market is unlikely to sustain levels above 3400 points. Current trade environment pressures limit the feasibility of large-scale policy stimulus [10]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) has shown a continuous decline, with a year-on-year drop of 3.3% in May, indicating that A-share earnings are unlikely to improve in the near term [10]. Future Market Outlook - The market is expected to experience volatility, with a higher probability of downward movement. The focus will likely shift towards sectors with more predictable earnings, suggesting a strategy of seeking certainty and avoiding underperforming stocks [10][11]. - In the absence of significant changes in policies or PPI, a notable rise in the Shanghai Composite Index above 3400 points would be seen as a signal to reduce positions rather than increase them [11]. Structural Opportunities - The article outlines different market styles based on historical data since 2015, indicating that stable styles (e.g., utilities, consumer staples) are favored during external risks or tightening policies, while cyclical styles (e.g., materials, industrials) thrive in improving economic conditions [13][14]. - Growth styles (e.g., technology, emerging industries) depend on upward industry trends, policy support, and liquidity, while consumer styles are closely tied to economic recovery and consumer confidence [15][16]. - Currently, the market environment is characterized by weak earnings and low capital inflows, which is unfavorable for cyclical, growth, and consumer styles, but relatively beneficial for stable and financial styles [19]. Investment Recommendations - The article suggests a balanced allocation strategy, focusing on sectors with potential marginal improvements such as petrochemicals, brokerages, non-ferrous metals, military, and electric power, as well as industries aligned with policy and industry trends like AI applications, gaming, communication, and semiconductors [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Today, convertible bonds rose following the underlying stocks, and the valuation increased month - on - month. The trading sentiment in the convertible bond market weakened [1]. - The convertible bond price center increased, and the proportion of high - price bonds rose. The convertible bond valuation also increased [2]. - Today, most underlying stock industries rose, with 27 industries rising in the A - share market and 22 industries rising in the convertible bond market [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - Index Performance: The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.31% month - on - month, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.52%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.83%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.21%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.59%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.40% [1]. - Market Style: Large - cap growth stocks were relatively dominant. Large - cap growth stocks rose 1.02%, large - cap value stocks rose 0.63%, mid - cap growth stocks rose 0.64%, mid - cap value stocks rose 0.47%, small - cap growth stocks rose 0.81%, and small - cap value stocks rose 0.52% [1]. - Fund Performance: The trading sentiment in the convertible bond market weakened. The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 71.224 billion yuan, a 3.88% month - on - month decrease; the total trading volume of the Wind All - A Index was 1.286677 trillion yuan, an 11.35% month - on - month decrease; the net outflow of the main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 4.992 billion yuan, and the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond decreased 1.49bp month - on - month to 1.64% [1]. Convertible Bond Price - The overall weighted average closing price of convertible bonds was 120.30 yuan, a 0.30% increase from yesterday. Among them, the closing price of equity - biased convertible bonds was 161.40 yuan, a 0.98% month - on - month decrease; the closing price of bond - biased convertible bonds was 111.56 yuan, a 0.17% month - on - month increase; the closing price of balanced convertible bonds was 121.34 yuan, a 0.16% month - on - month increase [2]. - The proportion of high - price bonds above 130 yuan was 25.69%, a 1.27pct increase from yesterday. The range with the largest change in proportion was 110 - 120 (including 120), with a proportion of 33.55%, a 1.27pct decrease from yesterday. There were 7 bonds with a closing price below 100 yuan. The median price was 122.19 yuan, a 0.66% increase from yesterday [2]. Convertible Bond Valuation - The fitted conversion premium rate of 100 - yuan par value was 23.32%, a 0.32pct increase from yesterday. The overall weighted par value was 90.61 yuan, a 0.83% increase from yesterday. The premium rate of equity - biased convertible bonds was 4.96%, a 0.03pct month - on - month decrease; the premium rate of bond - biased convertible bonds was 90.02%, a 0.03pct month - on - month decrease; the premium rate of balanced convertible bonds was 19.60%, a 0.18pct month - on - month decrease [2]. Industry Performance - In the A - share market, the top three rising industries were non - ferrous metals (+2.21%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (+2.02%), and non - banking finance (+1.90%); the top three falling industries were pharmaceutical biology (-0.41%), communications (-0.28%), and beauty care (-0.10%) [3]. - In the convertible bond market, 22 industries rose. The top three rising industries were automobiles (+0.78%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (+0.78%), and basic chemicals (+0.78%); the top three falling industries were environmental protection (-1.04%), electronics (-0.74%), and petroleum and petrochemicals (-0.22%) [3]. - Closing Price: The large - cycle sector increased 0.07%, the manufacturing sector increased 0.45%, the technology sector increased 0.10%, the large - consumption sector increased 0.30%, and the large - finance sector increased 0.29% [3]. - Conversion Premium Rate: The large - cycle sector decreased 0.73pct, the manufacturing sector decreased 1.7pct, the technology sector decreased 0.17pct, the large - consumption sector decreased 2.2pct, and the large - finance sector decreased 0.4pct [3]. - Conversion Value: The large - cycle sector increased 0.36%, the manufacturing sector increased 1.26%, the technology sector increased 0.24%, the large - consumption sector decreased 2.85%, and the large - finance sector increased 0.50% [3]. - Pure Bond Premium Rate: The large - cycle sector increased 0.085pct, the manufacturing sector increased 0.58pct, the technology sector increased 0.19pct, the large - consumption sector increased 1.5pct, and the large - finance sector increased 0.32pct [4]. Industry Rotation - Non - ferrous metals, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, and non - banking finance led the rise in the industry rotation. The report also provided the daily, weekly, monthly, and year - to - date changes in stock prices, convertible bond prices, and valuation quantiles of multiple industries [54].

Key Points - The article emphasizes a cautious approach in the short term, focusing on defensive sectors such as banks due to ongoing tariff negotiations and rising economic downward pressure [2][4] - It suggests that while small-cap growth stocks are currently favored, the overall market volatility is increasing, indicating potential risks if a turning point occurs [2][4] - The report highlights a decrease in the dispersion of excess returns among industry indices, with a slight decline in the proportion of rising constituent stocks and an increase in industry rotation speed [6][7] Market Overview - The market structure shows a stable concentration in the top 100 stocks, while the transaction share of the top five industries has slightly decreased [6][7] - Market activity has decreased, with a notable drop in the turnover rate of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 index, reaching its lowest level in nearly a year [6][7] Commodity Market Insights - In the commodity market, the strength of trends in precious metals and non-ferrous sectors has significantly increased, while energy and black metal sectors continue their trend [18][20] - The basis differential momentum for black and precious metals has rapidly increased, whereas it has decreased for energy and non-ferrous sectors [18][20] Options Market Analysis - The implied volatility levels for the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and the CSI 1000 show no significant trend, with the latter at historically low levels [23] - The skewness of the CSI 1000 put options has decreased, indicating a reduction in market concerns regarding small-cap stocks [23] Convertible Bond Market Overview - The convertible bond market remains stable in terms of valuation, with the premium rate for bonds convertible at 100 yuan and the pure debt premium rate showing steady trends [26] - The market turnover has improved, surpassing historical median levels, while credit spreads remain consistent with previous values [26]

Investment Insights - The report indicates an increase in the risk of "herding" behavior in the market, suggesting a cautious approach until the risk is released [3][4] - Current market focus remains on defensive sectors such as banking, pharmaceuticals, nuclear power, and new consumption themes, with a recommendation to wait for adjustment pressure to ease before making further investments [4] Stock Market Analysis - In the past week, small-cap growth stocks outperformed, while volatility in both large and small-cap styles increased, indicating instability in market styles [6] - The dispersion of excess returns among industry indices has decreased to a near one-year low, with a slight decline in the proportion of rising constituent stocks [6] - Market activity showed a slight increase in volatility, but turnover rates continued to decline, particularly in the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, which reached historically low turnover levels [6] Commodity Market Overview - The commodity market displayed divergent trends, with energy and black metal sectors maintaining their momentum, while precious metals and non-ferrous metals showed upward trends [15] - The basis momentum for the black metal sector increased, while agricultural products remained at a low basis momentum [15] - Volatility was high in the energy sector, while other sectors experienced low-level fluctuations [15] Options Market Insights - Implied volatility for the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and CSI 1000 showed no significant trend before the Dragon Boat Festival, with long-term contracts experiencing a relative increase in implied volatility compared to short-term contracts [20] - The skew of put options relative to call options for the CSI 1000 maintained an advantage, with a noticeable increase in open interest, indicating market expectations of potential adjustments in small-cap stocks [20] Convertible Bond Market Trends - The convertible bond market saw a slight rebound, with the premium rate for bonds convertible at 100 yuan recovering, although the proportion of low-premium convertible bonds increased slightly [23] - Market transaction volume remained stable, and credit spreads significantly narrowed [23]

Quantitative Factors and Models Summary Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. **Factor Name**: Market Style Factor **Construction Idea**: This factor tracks the market's preference for small-cap versus large-cap stocks and growth versus value stocks over the observed period **Construction Process**: - The factor is divided into two dimensions: size (small-cap vs. large-cap) and style (growth vs. value) - The factor measures the relative performance of small-cap stocks compared to large-cap stocks and growth stocks compared to value stocks - Observations include the directional bias (e.g., small-cap preference) and the volatility of these style preferences **Evaluation**: The factor indicates a market preference for small-cap and growth stocks, but with increased volatility, suggesting instability in market style trends [11][12] 2. **Factor Name**: Market Structure Factor **Construction Idea**: This factor evaluates the dispersion and concentration of returns across industries and stocks to assess market structure dynamics **Construction Process**: - Industry excess return dispersion is calculated to measure the spread of returns across different sectors - Metrics such as the proportion of rising constituent stocks and the turnover concentration of the top 100 stocks and top 5 industries are tracked - Changes in these metrics are used to infer market structure stability and concentration trends **Evaluation**: The factor shows a decline in industry return dispersion and a slight increase in stock and industry concentration, indicating a more concentrated market structure [11][12] 3. **Factor Name**: Market Activity Factor **Construction Idea**: This factor measures market activity through volatility and turnover rates **Construction Process**: - Index volatility is calculated to assess market fluctuations - Turnover rates, particularly for indices like the SSE 50, are tracked to gauge trading activity - Observations include changes in these metrics over time **Evaluation**: The factor reveals a slight increase in market volatility but a continued decline in turnover rates, especially for the SSE 50, indicating reduced market activity [11][12] 4. **Factor Name**: Commodity Market Factors **Construction Idea**: These factors analyze trends, momentum, volatility, and liquidity in commodity markets **Construction Process**: - **Trend Strength**: Tracks the continuation of trends in sectors like energy and metals - **Basis Momentum**: Measures the momentum of basis changes, with specific focus on sectors like agriculture and metals - **Volatility**: Assesses the level of price fluctuations in different commodity sectors - **Liquidity**: Evaluates the trading activity and ease of transactions in commodity markets **Evaluation**: The factors highlight strong trends in energy and metals, low basis momentum in agriculture, high volatility in energy, and strong liquidity in energy and metals [23][27] 5. **Factor Name**: Option Market Factors **Construction Idea**: These factors assess market sentiment and risk expectations through option pricing metrics **Construction Process**: - **Implied Volatility**: Tracks the implied volatility of options on indices like SSE 50 and CSI 1000 - **Skewness**: Measures the relative pricing of put options versus call options to infer market sentiment - **Open Interest**: Monitors changes in open interest to gauge market positioning **Evaluation**: The factors suggest stable short-term sentiment but highlight potential downside risks for small-cap stocks based on skewness and rising open interest in put options [33][34] 6. **Factor Name**: Convertible Bond Market Factors **Construction Idea**: These factors analyze valuation and liquidity dynamics in the convertible bond market **Construction Process**: - **Valuation Metrics**: Tracks metrics like the premium rate of bonds near par value and the proportion of low-premium bonds - **Liquidity Metrics**: Monitors trading volume and credit spreads **Evaluation**: The factors indicate a slight recovery in valuation metrics but a rise in low-premium bonds, with stable trading volumes and narrowing credit spreads [35][37] Factor Backtesting Results 1. **Market Style Factor**: - Small-cap preference observed - Growth style preference observed - Increased volatility in both dimensions [11][12] 2. **Market Structure Factor**: - Industry return dispersion decreased - Stock and industry concentration slightly increased [11][12] 3. **Market Activity Factor**: - Market volatility slightly increased - Turnover rates decreased, especially for SSE 50 [11][12] 4. **Commodity Market Factors**: - Strong trends in energy and metals - Low basis momentum in agriculture - High volatility in energy - Strong liquidity in energy and metals [23][27] 5. **Option Market Factors**: - Stable implied volatility for SSE 50 and CSI 1000 - Skewness favors put options for CSI 1000 - Rising open interest in put options for CSI 1000 [33][34] 6. **Convertible Bond Market Factors**: - Premium rates near par value slightly recovered - Proportion of low-premium bonds increased - Trading volumes stable - Credit spreads narrowed [35][37]

Market Overview - The market showed an increase in cautious sentiment before the long holiday, with broad market indices experiencing a decline, while small-cap stocks stabilized and recovered [4][2]. - The week before the May Day holiday saw a balanced performance between large-cap and small-cap styles, as well as between value and growth styles, with a continued decrease in style volatility [6][2]. Market Structure - The excess return dispersion of industry indices slightly decreased, and the proportion of rising constituent stocks also saw a decline, indicating a slowdown in industry rotation [6][2]. - The trading concentration decreased, with the proportion of trading volume from the top 100 stocks rebounding from a low level, while the top five industries' trading volume proportion continued to decline [6][2]. Market Activity - Market volatility continued to decrease due to the upcoming holiday, and turnover rates also saw a reduction [7][2]. Commodity Market - There was a divergence in trend strength among commodity sectors, with energy and black metals maintaining strong trends, while non-ferrous and agricultural products showed weaker trends, and precious metals experienced a significant decline in trend strength [18][17]. - The non-ferrous sector had the highest basis momentum, while the black sector saw a rapid decline [18][17]. - Volatility across all sectors remained high, and liquidity was stable across the board [18][17]. Options Market - Implied volatility levels for the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and CSI 1000 indices increased, indicating some speculative sentiment in the market before the holiday [23][3]. - The skew of call options for the CSI 1000 improved, while the skew for the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 saw a notable decline, suggesting a market expectation of small-cap stocks performing better post-holiday [23][3]. Convertible Bond Market - The valuation level of the convertible bond market slightly increased, remaining above the historical median for the past year, with a small rebound in the number of convertible bonds with low conversion premiums [27][3]. - Overall trading volume in the convertible bond market continued to recover [27][3].

Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Market Style Factors - **Construction Idea**: The market style factors track the balance and volatility between different market styles, such as large-cap vs. small-cap and value vs. growth[11][13] - **Construction Process**: - **Style Balance**: Measure the relative performance of large-cap vs. small-cap stocks and value vs. growth stocks to determine the market's style preference[11] - **Style Volatility**: Calculate the fluctuations in the relative performance of these styles over time to assess the stability of the market's style preference[11] - **Evaluation**: The market style factors showed a balanced preference between large-cap and small-cap stocks, as well as between value and growth stocks. Additionally, the volatility of these styles continued to decline, indicating a more stable market environment[11][13] 2. Factor Name: Market Structure Factors - **Construction Idea**: These factors analyze the dispersion of returns, sector rotation, and trading concentration to understand the structural dynamics of the market[11][13] - **Construction Process**: - **Return Dispersion**: Measure the excess return dispersion across industry indices to evaluate the variability in sector performance[11] - **Sector Rotation**: Assess the speed of sector rotation by tracking changes in sector leadership over time[11] - **Trading Concentration**: Calculate the proportion of trading volume concentrated in the top 100 stocks and the top 5 industries to gauge market concentration[11] - **Evaluation**: The market structure factors indicated a decline in return dispersion, slower sector rotation, and reduced trading concentration, suggesting a more evenly distributed market environment[11][13] 3. Factor Name: Market Activity Factors - **Construction Idea**: These factors measure the overall activity and liquidity of the market through volatility and turnover rates[12][13] - **Construction Process**: - **Volatility**: Calculate the index-level volatility to assess market stability[12] - **Turnover Rate**: Measure the turnover rate of the market to evaluate trading activity[12] - **Evaluation**: The market activity factors showed a decline in both volatility and turnover rates, reflecting reduced market activity, likely influenced by the holiday period[12][13] 4. Factor Name: Commodity Market Factors - **Construction Idea**: These factors analyze the performance, momentum, and liquidity of various commodity sectors[27][30] - **Construction Process**: - **Trend Strength**: Measure the strength of price trends in different commodity sectors, such as energy, metals, and agriculture[27] - **Basis Momentum**: Calculate the basis momentum, particularly for the metals sector, to assess the relative strength of futures prices compared to spot prices[27][30] - **Volatility**: Track the volatility levels across commodity sectors to evaluate risk[27][30] - **Liquidity**: Measure the liquidity of commodity sectors to assess trading ease[27][30] - **Evaluation**: The commodity market factors showed mixed performance, with strong trends in energy and metals, weaker trends in agriculture, and high volatility across sectors. Liquidity remained stable overall[27][30] 5. Factor Name: Options Market Factors - **Construction Idea**: These factors analyze the implied volatility and skewness of options to infer market sentiment and expectations[35] - **Construction Process**: - **Implied Volatility**: Measure the implied volatility levels of options on major indices, such as the SSE 50 and CSI 1000, to gauge market uncertainty[35] - **Skewness**: Analyze the skewness of call and put options to understand market expectations for upward or downward movements[35] - **Evaluation**: The options market factors indicated a divergence in sentiment, with increased optimism for small-cap stocks (CSI 1000) and reduced optimism for large-cap stocks (SSE 50). This suggests a potential shift in market preference post-holiday[35] 6. Factor Name: Convertible Bond Market Factors - **Construction Idea**: These factors evaluate the valuation and trading activity of the convertible bond market[38] - **Construction Process**: - **Valuation**: Measure the average conversion premium of convertible bonds to assess their relative attractiveness[38] - **Trading Activity**: Track the trading volume and turnover in the convertible bond market to evaluate market interest[38] - **Evaluation**: The convertible bond market factors showed a slight increase in valuation, with trading activity continuing to recover, indicating improving market sentiment[38] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Market Style Factors - **Style Balance**: Balanced between large-cap and small-cap, as well as value and growth[11][13] - **Style Volatility**: Continued decline in volatility, indicating stability[11][13] 2. Market Structure Factors - **Return Dispersion**: Declined, indicating less variability in sector performance[11][13] - **Sector Rotation**: Slowed down, suggesting reduced changes in sector leadership[11][13] - **Trading Concentration**: Decreased, reflecting a more evenly distributed market[11][13] 3. Market Activity Factors - **Volatility**: Declined, indicating reduced market risk[12][13] - **Turnover Rate**: Decreased, reflecting lower trading activity[12][13] 4. Commodity Market Factors - **Trend Strength**: Strong in energy and metals, weak in agriculture[27][30] - **Basis Momentum**: Highest in metals, declined in other sectors[27][30] - **Volatility**: High across all sectors[27][30] - **Liquidity**: Stable overall[27][30] 5. Options Market Factors - **Implied Volatility**: Increased for both SSE 50 and CSI 1000, indicating higher uncertainty[35] - **Skewness**: Positive for CSI 1000 (small-cap optimism), negative for SSE 50 (large-cap caution)[35] 6. Convertible Bond Market Factors - **Valuation**: Slight increase in average conversion premium[38] - **Trading Activity**: Continued recovery in trading volume[38]

分析师：柏逸凡 登记编号：S0890524100001 分析师：程秉哲 登记编号：S0890522110001 投资要点 本报告统计时间为2025.04.21-2025.04.25。 上周，美国在中美关税问题态度上仍在反复，风险未进一步上升，但尚未显著改善。不过受中央汇金等稳股市力量支撑， A股大盘延续稳健走势，银行股表现较好，但其他行业板块多数以快速轮动为主，科技板块波动偏大，赚钱效应有限。 权益市场 ，市场风格方面，大小盘风格仍以大盘为主，价值成长风格偏向价值；风格波动方面，大小盘风格波动与价值 成长风格波动继续下降。市场结构方面，上周，行业指数超额收益离散度上升，成分股上涨比例基本持平，行业轮动速度 上升，交易集中度方面，前100个股成交额占比从低位回升，前5行业成交额占比继续下降，显示行业成交集中度下行。市 场活跃度方面，市场波动率从高位迅速回落，换手率有所降低，显示尽管关税问题仍待解决，但股市已经逐步回复平静。 商品市场方面 ，趋势强度表现分化，能化、黑色板块趋势性较强，有色、农产品板块趋势性较弱；基差动量方面，有色 板块最高，黑色板块快速下降；波动率方面，各板块波动率维持在高位；流动性方面，各板块 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market shows resilience with the Shanghai Composite Index closing in the green amid a backdrop of declines in the Hong Kong market, indicating strong market performance and investor confidence [1]. Market Performance - The trading volume in both markets has exceeded 2 trillion yuan, reflecting sustained market enthusiasm [2]. - The financing balance in the A-share market has surged to over 1.9 trillion yuan, marking the highest level since July 2015, indicating active leverage funds entering the market [3][5]. Sector Analysis - The current market trend shows a rotation in sectors, with consumer stocks leading while technology sectors experience a pullback. Analysts suggest that growth and manufacturing sectors will remain dominant [2][5]. - Financing funds have shown a preference for technology sectors, with significant net purchases in electronics, computers, machinery, communications, and power equipment, each exceeding 10 billion yuan since February [6]. Indicators of Bull Market - The increase in financing balance is a double-edged sword; while it may signal a developing bull market, it also raises concerns about potential market risks due to increased leverage [4]. - Key indicators to assess the bull market include ongoing improvements in economic fundamentals, liquidity conditions, and overall market sentiment [7][10][11]. Future Market Outlook - The upcoming Two Sessions are expected to influence market dynamics, with historical trends indicating potential market adjustments during this period [12]. - Analysts predict that technology and consumer sectors will be the main lines of investment, supported by favorable policies and high growth potential [14][16]. Investment Strategy - Investment strategies should focus on sector rotation and risk management, with a core-satellite approach emphasizing technology and consumer sectors, supplemented by cyclical and high-dividend assets [19].