数据显示，12月24日上海黄金现货价格报价1012.00元/克，相较于期货主力价格(1014.68元/克)贴水2.68 元/克。 12月23日芝加哥商业交易所(CME)：黄金期货成交量为272816手，较上个交易日增加43878手。未平仓 合约为500555手，较上个交易日增加1363手。 12月24日，上期所沪金期货仓单录得93711千克，较上一交易日持平；最近一周，沪金期货仓单累计增 长1989千克，增长幅度为2.17%；最近一个月，沪金期货仓单累计增长3285千克，增长幅度为3.63%。 分析观点： 宝城期货研报：昨日金价强势上行，纽约金和伦敦金先后站上4500美元关口，沪金站上1000元关口。短 期推动金价上行的主要因素是宏观共性的，这主要体现在近期无论是有色还是贵金属均出现明显上行趋 势，尤其是白银和铂钯，涨幅明显。我们认为本轮上行的主要推力来自于美日两大央行的货币政策，12 月上旬美联储降息落地，表现偏鸽，市场风险偏好和流动性均回升，12月中旬，市场对日元加息预期较 强，短期流动性下降，市场承压，随着12月19日日元加息落地，市场表现为靴子落地的情形，资产普遍 再度重拾涨势。拉长周期来看，自10月 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - After the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, the risk appetite of global equity assets is gradually returning, and stock index futures are expected to oscillate and rebound. However, further breakthroughs require volume support, and market sentiment is expected to turn cautious by the end of the year, with the stock index mainly moving in an oscillatory manner [1]. - The asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks, so attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1]. - With the improvement of market risk appetite, the prices of copper, aluminum, zinc, and nickel in the non - ferrous metal sector are expected to be strong in the short term, while the long - term pattern of primary nickel surplus remains unchanged [1]. - Gold prices may remain strong in the short term, but the strong GDP growth in the third quarter of the United States weakens the expectation of interest rate cuts, so volatility risks need to be vigilant. Silver, platinum, and palladium are still favored by macro - driving, supply - demand imbalance, and other factors, but short - term volatility risks also exist [1]. - For the black sector, after the release of negative news, coal and coke have shown signs of stabilization, and attention should be paid to whether downstream enterprises will start winter storage and replenishment [1]. - In the agricultural product sector, the prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and other products are under pressure, while the cotton market is currently in a state of "having support but no driving force", and future policies and market conditions need to be monitored [1]. - In the energy and chemical sector, the prices of PTA are expected to be strong, while the prices of ethylene glycol, PVC, and other products are under pressure due to factors such as supply and demand and cost [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - financial - Stock index futures: Oscillate and rebound in the short term, but further breakthroughs require volume support, and mainly move in an oscillatory manner by the end of the year [1]. - Bond futures: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but the central bank warns of interest rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1]. Non - ferrous metals - Copper: With the improvement of market risk appetite, prices are strong [1]. - Aluminum: With the improvement of macro - sentiment, prices oscillate and strengthen [1]. - Zinc: Fundamentals improve, cost center rises, and prices oscillate and strengthen [1]. - Nickel: Although global inventory is high, due to supply concerns and Indonesian policies, prices may be strong in the short term, with a long - term surplus pattern of primary nickel [1]. - Stainless steel: With the improvement of raw material nickel prices, futures prices continue to rebound, and short - term low - buying is recommended [1]. - Tin: Affected by the industry's initiative, prices oscillate and weaken in the short term, but low - buying opportunities can be considered [1]. Precious metals and new energy - Gold: Prices reach a new high and may remain strong in the short term, but volatility risks need to be vigilant [1]. - Silver: Macro - driving, supply - demand imbalance, and other factors are beneficial, but short - term volatility risks exist [1]. - Platinum and palladium: May maintain a long - position pattern in the short term, but short - term volatility risks need to be vigilant [1]. Black sector - Steel products: After the release of negative news, coal and coke show signs of stabilization, and attention should be paid to winter storage and replenishment [1]. - Iron ore: Near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, while far - month contracts have upward opportunities [1]. - Silicon iron: Direct demand weakens, supply is high, and prices are under pressure [1]. - Glass: Supply and demand are supported, valuation is low, and prices fluctuate and strengthen [1]. - Soda ash: Follows glass, with limited downward space and may be under pressure to oscillate [1]. Agricultural products - Palm oil: High - frequency data improves, but the origin is expected to be loose, and rebound short - selling is recommended [1]. - Soybean oil: Affected by the decline of CBOT and other domestic oils, prices are weak [1]. - Cotton: The market is in a state of "having support but no driving force", and future policies and market conditions need to be monitored [1]. - Sugar: There is a consensus on short - selling, but there is cost support below, and attention should be paid to changes in the capital side [1]. - Wheat and corn: Market supply and demand tension eases, but farmers are reluctant to sell, and there is备货 demand before the Spring Festival, which limits the decline of the futures price [1]. - Soybeans: US soybeans are weak, Brazilian soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest, and domestic futures prices are expected to oscillate weakly [1]. Energy and chemical sector - Crude oil: Affected by OPEC+ policies, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, and US sanctions, prices oscillate [1]. - Fuel oil: Follows crude oil, with short - term supply - demand contradictions not prominent [1]. - Asphalt: Supply is sufficient, profit is high, and prices oscillate [1]. - Natural rubber: Supported by raw material costs, with a possible trend of inventory accumulation [1]. - PTA: PX prices are strong, polyester production and sales improve, and prices are expected to be strong [1]. - Ethylene glycol: Prices fall due to inventory accumulation and weakening cost support [1]. - Styrene: Cost is slightly supported, but overall production economy is negative, and inventory is high [1]. - Urea: Export sentiment eases, domestic demand is insufficient, but there is cost support [1]. - PVC: Supply pressure increases, demand weakens, and prices oscillate in a range [1]. - Caustic soda: Some production delays, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation in Shandong [1]. - Liquefied petroleum gas (PG): After a price correction, it maintains range - bound oscillations, and attention should be paid to the impact of natural gas on near - month prices [1]. Other - Container shipping on the European route: The price increase in December fails to meet expectations, the peak - season price increase is pre - priced, and the supply of shipping capacity is relatively loose [1].

日度报告——综合晨报 12 月 LPR 利率未动，油厂豆粕库存增加 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-12-23 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美国总统特朗普或将在 1 月第一周指定美联储新主席人选 特朗普预计很快提名美联储主席人选，市场风险偏好回升，美 元指数继续看跌。 宏观策略（股指期货） 12 月 LPR 按兵不动 综 12 月 22 日 A 股放量单边上行，市场情绪较高。近期在日央行不 及预期的加息后，宏观利空因素已经较少，因而市场保持进攻 态势，逐渐修复回撤。 合 宏观策略（国债期货） 晨 央行开展了 673 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作 报 在政策利率未变的情况下，LPR 利率并未下调，市场预期落空， 加之风险偏好明显上升，国债期货下跌。 农产品（豆粕） 油厂豆粕库存增加 USDA 继续补发出口销售报告；南美天气总体理想，缺乏天气炒 作题材。国内进口大豆成本变动不大，上周油厂豆粕库存再度 上升。 有色金属（铜） 中国 11 月铜矿砂及其精矿进口量环比上升 3.05% 地缘政治及战争风险阶段升温，市场避险情绪继续支撑贵金属 走强，从而间接对铜价形成提振，预计盘面继续高位震荡可能 性更大。 ...

期货研究报告 核心观点 上周金价整体呈现震荡上行走势。宏观层面，多空因素交织：一 方面，美元指数在连续调整后触底回升，对以美元计价的黄金构成压 制；另一方面，日本央行加息落地，全球市场流动性预期改善，又为 金价提供了支撑。在此环境下，纽约金价多次尝试上攻每盎司4380美 元关口，但均遇阻回落，与之对应的国内沪金亦在每克 980 元附近面 临明显的技术阻力。这表明当前价位附近多空博弈激烈，市场分歧有 所加大。周五夜盘内外金价均站上阻力位，短期上行动能较强。 拉长周期看，自10月底中美元首在釜山举行会晤以来，全球市场 风险偏好持续回暖，黄金价格整体维持高位震荡格局。目前金价已再 度逼近 10 月末形成的阶段性高点，技术层面压力逐渐显现。后续需 密切关注价格在关键阻力区域的表现，若无法有效突破，短期可能延 续震荡整理态势。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 贵金属 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 专业研究·创造价值 2025 年 12 月 22 日 贵金属周报 日元加息落地，市场流动性回升 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 12 月 22 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 区间震荡 | 政策利好预期与资金净流入趋势 不变 | 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：上周五各股指均震荡小幅反弹。在政策利好的扶持下，2026 年宏观经济表现较强预期， 随着政策利好预期不断发酵，市场风险偏好将逐渐回升。随着股指回落至震荡区间下沿，中长期资金 配置意愿升温，对股指构成较强支撑。不过年内政策继续加码的动力不足，政策的发力点预计在明年 一季度，短期内资金面观望情绪仍存。总的来说，短期内股指上有压力，下有支撑，以区间震荡为主。 备注： 1 ...

12月19日，消息面：周五（12月19日）亚市尾盘，现货黄金短线出现一波跌势，目前金价位于4318美 元/盎司附近，日内下挫近15美元。受到多种因素的拖累，周五金价走低。美国CPI疲软削弱了黄金作为 通胀对冲工具的地位。此外，美元买盘的回升以及积极的市场风险偏好情绪，也对金价构成额外的下行 压力。 现货黄金： 技术面：从1小时级别观察，黄金目前处于高位震荡偏弱修正阶段，但整体趋势尚未发生反转。结构 上，前期冲高后未能延续涨势，多次上攻均遇阻回落，短线进入区间整理格局。现阶段价格回落至区间 中下沿，属于上涨后的正常消化过程。均线方面，价格已回到短期均线及布林带中轨附近；布林带未明 显开口，显示波动仍在可控范围内，短期或延续震荡整理。黄金的第一个上行阻力位出现在布林带的上 边界4352美元。如果突破这一水平，可能表明买家准备入场并维持回升至历史高点4381美元，进而挑战 4400美元的心理关口。另一方面，如果看跌蜡烛开始出现且价格保持在12月17日的4300美元低点以下， 卖方可能会获得牵引力，将金价拉向12月16日的4271美元低点。进一步下行，下一关注的支撑位是100 日EMA的4257美元。晚间重点关注上方 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The short - term view of the stock index is range - bound, with pressure on the upside and support on the downside. In the short term, the policy is in a window period, and the driving force for continued policy intensification this year is insufficient. The policy is expected to focus on the first quarter of next year. The willingness of funds to leave the market and wait and see has increased, but if the stock index pulls back to the lower edge of the previous shock range, the willingness of medium - and long - term funds to allocate will increase, providing strong support. As the expectation of policy benefits continues to ferment, market risk preference will gradually recover [5]. - For the IH2603 variety, the short - term and medium - term views are both "shock", the intraday view is "strong - biased", and the overall view is "range - bound", with the core logic being the unchanged expectation of policy benefits and the trend of net capital inflow [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the IH2603 variety, the short - term view is "shock", the medium - term view is "shock", the intraday view is "strong - biased", and the view reference is "range - bound". The core logic is the unchanged expectation of policy benefits and the trend of net capital inflow [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is "strong - biased", and the medium - term view is "shock", with a reference view of "range - bound". Yesterday, each stock index oscillated and sorted in a narrow range. The total stock market turnover was 1672.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 162.1 billion yuan from the previous day. Currently, the trading volume of the stock market is shrinking, and the stock index remains within the shock range. In the short term, due to the policy window period, the driving force for continued policy intensification this year is insufficient, and the driving force of policy benefit expectations is weak. The willingness of funds to leave the market and wait and see has increased, and the driving force of funds is also weak. However, if the stock index pulls back to the lower edge of the previous shock range, the willingness of medium - and long - term funds to allocate will increase, providing strong support. Overall, the stock index is range - bound in the short term [5].

海外市场点评 11 月美国 CPI：能否扭转降息定价？ [Table_Author] 分析师：陶川 分析师：林彦 研究助理：武朔 执业证书：S0590525110006 执业证书：S0590525110007 执业证书：S0590125110064 邮箱：taochuan@glms.com.cn 邮箱：linyan@glms.com.cn 邮箱：wushuo@glms.com.cn 在降息预期大幅放缓的背景下，年内最后一份通胀数据能否扭转当前的降息定 价？其中，3%可能是一个重要的心理关口。值得期待的是，如果 CPI 同比重回 3%以下，可能会一定程度上提振市场风险偏好，并为年末可能的美股"圣诞行情" 打开空间；相反，如果 CPI 超预期上行，则将会进一步锁定美联储的"鹰"派立 场。 不过我们认为，本次通胀数据对市场的实际影响或相对有限，主要原因在于： 相关研究 本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 证券研究报告 1 2025 年 12 月 18 日 一方面，数据本身的质量问题依然值得担忧。由于政府长达 43 天关门的影响，10 月通胀数据以及 11 月环比数据缺失，可供市场解读的信息有 ...

【机构观点】 【基本面消息】 数据显示，12月18日上海黄金现货价格报价975.00元/克，相较于期货主力价格（980.50元/克）贴水5.5 元/克。 美国据悉准备在普京拒绝和平协议的情况下对俄实施新一轮制裁。 美联储理事沃勒周三表示，鉴于市场担忧就业市场疲软，美联储仍有降息空间。沃勒表示："我仍然认 为，我们可能距离中性利率还有50到100个基点的差距。"这意味着美联储仍有降息空间。沃勒表示，鉴 于目前的经济前景，"没有必要急于降息"，在通胀可能趋于温和的经济环境下，"我们可以稳步地将利 率降至中性水平"。 【黄金期货最新行情】 | 12月18日 | 收盘价（元/克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 980.50 | 0.33% | 241116 | 196752 | 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 宝城期货：市场的风险偏好持续回升 金价呈现高位震荡态势 昨夜金价偏强运行，纽约金一度站上4380美元，沪金站上980元关口。宏观层面，自上周五以来，风险 偏好均下降明显，这表现在美股高位持续下挫，因此避 ...

Market Performance - The A-share market showed strength in the afternoon, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.19% to 3870.28 points, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 2.40%, and the ChiNext Index up by 3.39% [1] - The total market turnover reached 1.83 trillion yuan, an increase of 86.3 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - High-volatility sectors such as telecommunications, AI in the ChiNext, and non-ferrous metals performed well, while sectors like aquaculture, coal, and dividend stocks lagged behind [1] Investment Trends - Incremental capital is flowing into the market, with the CSI A500 ETF leading in turnover, totaling 45.291 billion yuan among the top five ETFs, and the overall A500 ETF turnover reaching 52.575 billion yuan, more than three times that of the CSI 300 ETF [1] - There is a noticeable increase in net subscriptions for several core broad-based products, indicating a concentrated allocation of funds towards core A-share assets after a market correction [1] Economic Outlook - The current market sentiment is moderately positive, with a marginal recovery in risk appetite [1] - The former Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan, Makoto Nakada, warned against premature interest rate hikes, advocating for fiscal and growth policies to elevate neutral interest rates, which is interpreted as a constraint on the pace of central bank rate hikes and positively impacts market sentiment [1] Sector Analysis - The prevailing market themes include technology (AI industry chain), anti-involution, and external demand-driven manufacturing recovery [2] - The uncertainty surrounding AI commercialization, as evidenced by Oracle's revenue and cloud business falling short of expectations, contributes to market volatility [2] - Despite the promising trends in AI, concerns about stock price divergence from fundamentals exist, suggesting a focus on tangible asset expansion opportunities, particularly in the power-related non-ferrous sector [2] Real Estate and Inflation - The real estate market continues to experience a downward trend, with housing prices declining [2] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has turned positive for two consecutive months, influenced by gold prices and seasonal fluctuations in vegetable prices [2] Debt Market - The bond market saw a slight rebound, although the weak performance in the fourth quarter was more pronounced than expected [2] - Long-term bonds, particularly 30-year government bonds, are approaching post-tax mortgage rates, indicating a gradual recovery in their investment value [2] - The 10-year government bond remains a stabilizing force in the bond market during this adjustment phase, highlighting its robust characteristics [2]