【导读】金银、股市全线跳水 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好啊，大年初一，海外市场不平静，一起看看发生了什么事情。 2月17日，现货黄金、白银价格盘中突然大幅跳水，白银一度暴跌约5%，随后跌幅收窄，现货黄金跌破 4900美元/盎司。 【导读】金银、股市全线跳水 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好啊，大年初一，海外市场不平静，一起看看发生了什么事情。 2月17日，现货黄金、白银价格盘中突然大幅跳水，白银一度暴跌约5%，随后跌幅收窄，现货黄金跌破 4900美元/盎司。 与此同时，美股三大指数期货也全线跳水。纳指跌0.8%，日经225指数跌0.5%，富时中国A50期货指数 跌超0.7%。 KCM Trade市场分析师蒂姆·沃特勒表示："由于多个市场假期以及缺乏新的利好因素，今日市场呈现防 御态势。交易员们正密切关注美伊之间的动态，伊朗近期的军事演习足以抑制市场风险偏好。" 周一，伊朗外长阿巴斯·阿拉格齐在日内瓦与联合国核监督机构负责人举行了会谈，随后将与美国展开 第二轮核谈判。特朗普此前曾威胁称，除非伊朗同意达成协议以限制其核计划来换取制裁减免，否则将 对其进行打击。 分析师称，由于美国和亚洲假期导致流动性减少，周二的市场走 ...

Group 1 - As of February 10, the largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, held 1,079.32 tons, a decrease of 0.34 tons from the previous trading day [2] - On February 10, spot gold fluctuated around the $5,000 per ounce mark, with a daily low of $4,965.08 and a high of $5,085.50, closing at $5,025.12, up $63.97 or 1.29% [2] - Market sentiment improved due to the resolution of political uncertainty from Japan's early election results and signs of easing geopolitical tensions, which boosted risk appetite and pressured safe-haven gold [2] Group 2 - Despite the rebound in gold prices, the movement appears driven more by position adjustments rather than new fundamental changes, with volatility still limiting broader market participation [4] - Current market pricing indicates at least two rate cuts of 25 basis points each by 2026, with the first potentially in June, which could influence gold prices [4] - Technical analysis suggests that gold is nearing a confirmation of a phase bottom, having bottomed around $4,400 in early February and showing signs of regaining bullish momentum [4] Group 3 - The recent high of approximately $5,092 formed a resistance level for gold prices, while a rising trend line starting from $4,400 provides support, currently around $4,800 [5] - If gold can maintain this upward support, it may continue its rebound towards historical highs [5]

2月10日，昨日周一我们认为，美伊谈判的长期与不确定性，以及对美联储独立性的担忧等因素，继续 吸引逢低买盘与避险买盘，对黄金价格形成支撑，短期技术面也显示黄金存在反弹需求，因此操作上建 议大家，下方支撑关注4965美元，其次4930和4900美元，上方压力关注5050美元，其次5100和5200美 元。 从之后的走势看，昨日周一欧盘盘中，黄金反弹5040美元遇阻，回落4982美元企稳，此后金价震荡回 升，美盘开盘后，黄金继续上涨，至5081美元遇阻，回落5041美元企稳后，临近收盘时，黄金涨至5086 美元遇阻，刷新当日新高；周二开盘，黄金短线急跌超过80美元，最低至4988美元企稳，不过金价很快 反抽，保持5010到5060美元区间震荡，目前交投于5050美元附近。总体来看，黄金周一延续了上周五的 反弹走势，与我们的预期基本一致。 2月10日，昨日周一我们认为，美伊谈判的长期与不确定性，以及对美联储独立性的担忧等因素，继续 吸引逢低买盘与避险买盘，对黄金价格形成支撑，短期技术面也显示黄金存在反弹需求，因此操作上建 议大家，下方支撑关注4965美元，其次4930和4900美元，上方压力关注5050美元，其次5 ...

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the stock index is expected to consolidate after a rebound on low volume. In the long - term, with a low - interest - rate environment and "asset shortage", the domestic market has abundant funds and the economy is bottoming out, so the medium - to - long - term upward trend of the stock index is not expected to end [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned about interest - rate risks, so attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. - Market sentiment has recovered. In the context of tightening nickel ore supply in Indonesia, supply concerns may continue to disrupt the market. For different metals and commodities, their prices are affected by various factors such as supply and demand, policies, and macro - sentiment [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Stock index: Short - term consolidation after rebound, medium - to - long - term upward trend remains [1]. - Bond futures: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but central bank warns of interest - rate risks, focus on Bank of Japan's decision [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Prices have rebounded due to improved downstream demand and increased risk appetite [1]. - Aluminum: Prices are oscillating strongly with limited industrial - end drivers and improved macro - sentiment [1]. - Alumina: Operating capacity has declined, but inventories have increased, and prices remain oscillating [1]. - Zinc: Cost center is stable, prices are expected to rebound after a correction due to increased risk - aversion sentiment [1]. - Nickel: Prices have rebounded in the short term, affected by the situation in Indonesia. In the long term, high global inventories may be a constraint [1]. - Stainless steel: Futures are oscillating, with support from the raw - material side and improved macro - sentiment. Attention should be paid to actual production by steel mills [1]. - Tin: Prices are volatile in the short term, and investors should focus on risk management and profit protection [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold and silver: Have rebounded due to improved liquidity, weak dollar index, and weak inflation expectations. They are expected to stabilize and oscillate before the Spring Festival [1]. - Platinum and lithium: May fluctuate strongly in a wide range in the short term due to improved liquidity [1]. Industrial Products - Industrial silicon: Northwest production is increasing while southwest production is decreasing. Scheduled production of polysilicon and organic silicon decreased in December [1]. - Polysilicon: Suggested to wait and see due to liquidity risks [1]. - Carbonate lithium: In the off - season for new - energy vehicles, with strong demand for energy storage and battery exports. There is a need for a correction after a large increase [1]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: High production and high inventory limit price increases, and the transmission from futures to spot prices is not smooth. Unilateral long positions should be closed, and positive arbitrage positions can be taken [1]. - Iron ore: There is obvious pressure above the current level, and chasing long positions is not recommended [1]. - Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon: There is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. Current supply and demand are weak, but energy - consumption control and anti - involution may affect supply [1]. - Soda ash: Follows glass, with looser supply and demand in the medium term, and prices are under pressure [1]. - Coke and coking coal: Similar logic, mainly depending on capital sentiment during the off - season. Opportunities for high - point realization of spot goods or establishment of positive arbitrage positions should be grasped [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil: Are expected to turn to an oscillating trend due to various factors such as the end of pre - festival stocking, purchase expectations, and tariff adjustments [1]. - Cotton: The market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver". Future policies, planting area, weather, and demand should be monitored [1]. - Sugar: There is a consensus on short - selling due to global surplus and increased domestic supply. If prices continue to fall, there is strong cost support, but the short - term fundamentals lack continuous drivers [1]. - Corn: Is expected to oscillate narrowly in the short term. After the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the selling pressure of ground - stored grain and policy changes [1]. - Soybean meal: Is expected to oscillate in a range in the short term, affected by factors such as US soybean exports and Brazilian discounts. The spot basis is expected to weaken [1]. - Pulp: With disturbances on the supply side and weakening demand after restocking, it is advisable to wait and see [1]. - Logs: Spot prices have risen, and with a decrease in February arrivals and rising foreign quotes, the futures price has an upward driving force [1]. - Pigs: Spot prices are stabilizing, demand is supportive, and production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil and fuel oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the US and Iran may hold peace talks, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has cooled down. The commodity market sentiment has turned bearish [1]. - Asphalt: Short - term supply - demand contradictions are not prominent, following crude oil. The "14th Five - Year Plan" construction demand may be falsified, and supply is sufficient [1]. - BR rubber: The cost side has strong support, and there are expectations of export increases. Short - term downstream negative feedback is being realized, and the market should pay attention to pre - Spring Festival inventory clearance [1]. - PTA and short - fiber: The PX market is strong, driving up chemical products. PTA production is increasing, and short - fiber prices follow costs closely [1]. - Ethylene glycol: Overseas prices have rebounded, and the reduction in Middle East exports has boosted market confidence [1]. - Styrene: The futures price has rebounded due to improved supply - demand fundamentals, and the inventory has decreased [1]. - Methanol: Affected by the situation in Iran, there are both long and short factors. Downstream negative feedback is obvious [1]. - PVC: Global production capacity expansion is limited in 2026, but the fundamentals are poor. There may be a rush for exports, and capacity may be cleared in the northwest [1]. - LPG: The CP price has risen, and the market is expected to weaken. The basis is expected to widen, and demand is short - term bearish [1]. - Container shipping on the European route: Pre - festival freight rates have peaked and declined. Airlines are cautious about resuming flights and plan to increase prices after the off - season in March [1].

（文华综合） 对于铜价后续走势，金瑞期货表示，展望后市，近期宏观驱动占比较大，整体市场风险偏好有企稳迹 象。但铜自身微观层面弱，CL价差不利虹吸且LME交仓，但未来元素紧张预期尚无法扭转和证伪。综 上，铜价重心可能回归原区间震荡运行，下沿位置较高。 沪铜早间高开，日内持续偏强震荡，收盘上涨1.84%。最近宏观情绪是左右铜价走势的重要因素，周五 伴随着美股的反弹，市场风险偏好好转，沪铜走势有所回暖，国内消费淡季，供需面难以带来更多支 撑。 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the stock index is expected to consolidate after a shrinking rebound, and in the long term, the upward trend of the stock index is not expected to end due to abundant domestic market funds and the economy in the process of bottoming out [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1] - The prices of copper, aluminum, nickel, and other non - ferrous metals are affected by factors such as market sentiment, supply - demand relationship, and policies, and their trends vary [1] - Precious metals are expected to stabilize and fluctuate in the short term due to factors such as improved liquidity, but market funds may be cautious before the Spring Festival [1] - The prices of various industrial products and agricultural products are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationship, seasonality, and policies, showing different trends such as shock, upward, or downward [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - The stock index is expected to consolidate after a shrinking rebound in the short term, and the long - term upward trend is not expected to end due to abundant funds and the economy in the bottom - building process [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has warned of interest rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper prices have rebounded after a decline due to improved downstream demand and increased market risk appetite [1] - Aluminum prices are fluctuating strongly due to improved macro - sentiment and limited industrial - end drivers [1] - Alumina prices are oscillating with a decline in operating capacity and further inventory accumulation [1] - Zinc prices are expected to stabilize after a callback, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] - Nickel prices have rebounded in the short term but may be suppressed by high global inventories in the long term. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and macro - sentiment [1] - Stainless steel futures are oscillating. Attention should be paid to the actual production of steel mills, and short - term operations are recommended with risk control [1] - Tin prices are highly volatile in the short term, and investors are advised to focus on risk management and profit protection [1] Precious metals and new energy - Precious metals are expected to stabilize and fluctuate in the short term due to improved liquidity, but market funds may be cautious before the Spring Festival [1] - Platinum and lithium may fluctuate strongly in a wide range in the short term due to improved liquidity [1] Industrial products - For industrial silicon, there is production increase in the northwest and decrease in the southwest, and the production of polysilicon and organic silicon decreased in December [1] - For carbonates, it is in the off - season for new energy vehicles, but the energy - storage demand is strong, and there is a need for a callback after a large increase [1] - For steel products such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore, high production and high inventory suppress price increases, and it is recommended to take corresponding positions [1] - For manganese silicon and ferro - alloy, there is a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, and supply may be disturbed [1] - For soda ash, it follows glass, and the medium - term supply - demand is more relaxed, and the price is under pressure [1] - For coking coal and coke, it is recommended to take corresponding positions according to market conditions [1] Agricultural products - For palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, they are expected to turn to shock due to various factors such as备货 and tariff policies [1] - For cotton, it is in a situation of "supported but without drivers" in the short term, and attention should be paid to relevant policies and market conditions [1] - For sugar, there is a clear short - selling consensus, and attention should be paid to the change of funds [1] - For corn, it is expected to maintain a narrow - range shock in the short term, and attention should be paid to post - festival factors [1] - For soybean meal, it is expected to have a range - bound shock in the short term, and attention should be paid to the selling pressure of Brazilian discounts [1] - For pulp, it is recommended to wait and see due to supply disturbances and weakening demand [1] - For logs, the disk has upward driving force due to rising prices and expected decline in arrival volume [1] - For live pigs, the production capacity needs to be further released [1] Energy and chemical industry - For crude oil and fuel oil, factors such as OPEC+ suspending production increase, geopolitical situation, and market sentiment affect their trends [1] - For asphalt, there are factors such as cost support, market sentiment, and demand changes [1] - For BR rubber, the short - term disk is expected to have a wide - range shock, and there is an upward expectation in the long term [1] - For PTA, short - fiber, and other chemical products, they are affected by factors such as PX market strength, production capacity, and demand [1] - For ethylene, its price has rebounded due to improved supply - demand fundamentals [1] - For methanol, there are factors such as import reduction expectations and downstream negative feedback [1] - For PVC, there are factors such as supply pressure, future expectations, and policy impacts [1] - For LPG, the disk is expected to weaken, and the basis is expected to expand [1] - For container shipping on the European line, the freight rate has peaked and declined before the festival, and airlines have a strong willingness to raise prices after the off - season in March [1]

长江铜价copper.ccmn.cn短评：美指走软与投资者信心改善共推，隔周伦铜收涨1.59%；海外中断矿山复 产艰难，国内下游备货进入尾声，且上周铜价大跌引发逢低买货，料今现铜上涨。 【铜期货市场】美指走软与投资者信心改善共推，隔周伦铜震荡走强，最新收盘报价13060美元/吨，收 涨205美元，涨幅1.59%，成交量25637手减少4686手，持仓量324508增加298手；周五晚间沪铜开高开 走涨，主力月2603合约最新收盘价报101490元/吨，涨1490元，涨幅1.49%。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 伦敦金属交易所（LME）2月6日伦铜最新库存量报183275公吨，较上个交易日增加2700公吨，涨幅 1.50%。 长江铜业网讯： 宏观层面，2月6日（周五），美国密歇根大学公布数据显示，美国2月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值 为57.3，高于预期的55和前值的56.4，创六个月新高，主要受股市上涨中获利的高收入群体推动。该调 查时间为1月20日至2月2日。市场关注的通胀预期方面，消费者对短期通胀前景更乐观，2月密歇根大学 1年通胀预期初值降至3.5%，为一年来最低水平，低于预期和前值的4%； ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bloomberg Dollar Index declined on Friday, marking a reduction in its first weekly gain in four weeks, as market risk appetite increased and stock markets rose, leading to a weaker dollar against most major currencies [1][9]. Group 1: Dollar Index and Market Movements - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell by 0.4%, with a cumulative increase of 0.2% for the week [2][10]. - The rise in the dollar earlier in the week was attributed to technical factors, as noted by Marc Chandler, Chief Market Strategist at Bannockburn Global [2][10]. - The U.S. Treasury yield curve saw a broad increase, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising by 3 basis points to 4.21%, while the S&P 500 index increased by nearly 2% [2][10]. Group 2: Currency Performance - The Australian dollar rose by 1.3% to 0.7016 [4][13]. - The Norwegian krone against the dollar fell by 1.3% to 9.6785, although it still saw a weekly increase of 0.3% [5][14]. - The New Zealand dollar increased by 1.2% to 0.6019, while the dollar/yen remained stable at 157.11 as investors assessed the upcoming Japanese elections [6][16]. - The euro rose by 0.4% to 1.182, and the British pound increased by 0.7% to 1.3619 [7][8][16]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Rick Rieder from BlackRock indicated a strategy shift, reducing exposure to U.S. investment-grade and high-yield bonds while increasing holdings in emerging market bonds [11]. - Currencies sensitive to commodity price fluctuations led gains following an increase in gold prices, reversing risk-averse sentiment in the stock market [12].

阳光光 从业资格号：F03142459 投资咨询号：Z0021764 中航期货 2026-2-6 沥青周度报告 目录 01 报告摘要 03 宏观分析 02 多空焦点 04 供需分析 Ø 美伊释放积极言论：当地时间2月1日，美国总统特朗普在海湖庄园回答记者有关伊朗问题时表示，希望"能够达成协议"。当天 早些时候，伊朗外长阿拉格齐表示，伊朗对与美国就核问题达成协议"仍然有信心"。 Ø 美军在阿拉伯海域击落伊朗无人机：据央视新闻报道，当地时间2月3日，一名美国官员表示，美军当天在阿拉伯海击落了一架接 近"亚伯拉罕·林肯"号航空母舰的伊朗无人机。伊朗方面一名消息人士表示，伊方一架无人机当天在公海执行常规合法侦察任 务过程中失联，但已成功传回其拍摄的图片。 Ø 美伊谈判一度取消：当地时间2月4日，有伊朗官方消息人士称，原定于6日在阿曼举行的伊美谈判已经取消。该消息人士表示， 取消会谈的原因是美方对会谈施加了新的条件，以及双方在谈判问题上存在分歧，而非会谈地点的问题。 Ø 美伊于2月6日在阿曼首都谈判：当地时间2月4日，伊朗外交部长阿拉格齐就伊朗在阿曼与美国会谈的官方立场作出澄清，称谈判 将于6日上午10点左右在阿曼首都 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - Copper prices will continue to adjust in the short - term, and attention should be paid to precious metal price fluctuations. In the medium - term, the upward trend of copper prices will remain unchanged [5][52] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Report Summary - US manufacturing index reached a new high since August 2022, while the service index declined slightly. US ADP employment was lower than expected, and the release of the non - farm employment report was postponed. The large - scale selling of the world's largest silver leveraged ETF added selling pressure to the precious metal market, and market risk appetite was poor [5][12] - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association plans to improve the copper reserve system, expand the national strategic copper reserve scale, and explore a commercial reserve mechanism. It also considers including copper concentrates in the reserve scope [5] - Globally, copper mine supply is facing structural challenges, and the supply of copper concentrates is expected to have a significant gap in 2026. In China, refined copper production remained high in December 2025, and there were plans for smelter overhauls in January 2026 [5][20][25] - The import volume of scrap copper in China reached a new monthly high in December 2025. The production enthusiasm of refined copper rod enterprises declined significantly in December 2025, and the increase in production in January 2026 was limited [25][29][33] - The refined - scrap copper price difference was at a high level, which was not conducive to refined copper consumption. The inventory of global electrolytic copper increased significantly, and the discount range of domestic and foreign copper spot prices decreased [36][44][49] - The Chinese real estate market is still in the adjustment period, but there may be policies to improve and stabilize expectations. China's automobile production and sales reached a new high in 2025, and the new - energy vehicle market continued to grow. The new photovoltaic installation scale is expected to decline in 2026 and then return to an upward trend [39][41] 3.2 Multi - and Short - Focus - **Bullish factors**: The tight situation of copper mines remains unchanged [8] - **Bearish factors**: Refined copper production remains at a high level, refined copper inventory continues to accumulate, precious metals continue to decline, and market risk appetite is poor [8] 3.3 Data Analysis - **Copper mine supply**: In 2025, global copper mine supply was severely disrupted, and the supply of copper concentrates had a large gap. The supply is expected to decline in 2026 and turn to a more relaxed state in 2027 [20] - **Copper concentrate TC**: The spot TC/RC of copper concentrates is in a deep negative range, and the profit of the smelting end is under pressure. Chile has postponed the goal of annual copper production exceeding 6 million tons and lowered production expectations [23] - **Refined copper production**: In December 2025, China's refined copper production was 1.326 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.1%. In January 2026, there were plans for smelter overhauls and new plant startups [25] - **Scrap copper import**: In December 2025, China's scrap copper import volume was 239,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.81% and a year - on - year increase of 9.90%, reaching a new monthly high in 2025 [29] - **Refined copper rod production**: In December 2025, the production of refined copper rods in China decreased significantly, and the production increase in January 2026 was limited [33] - **Refined - scrap copper price difference**: As of February 5, the refined - scrap copper price difference was around 3,380 yuan/ton, remaining at a high level, which was not conducive to refined copper consumption [36] - **Electrolytic copper inventory**: The inventory of LME, COMEX, and SHFE copper increased, and the domestic spot inventory of electrolytic copper also increased [45] - **Copper spot premium**: On February 5, the premium of Shanghai Wumaotrade 1 copper spot was around - 105 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 spot discount was around 77.58 US dollars/ton, with the discount range narrowing [49] 3.4 Market Outlook - Copper prices will continue to adjust in the short - term, and attention should be paid to precious metal price fluctuations. In the medium - term, the upward trend of copper prices will remain unchanged [52]