1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas macro: US consumer sentiment has improved, and the economic fundamentals are showing signs of recovery. However, due to tariff policies, consumers remain cautious about the future, and structural concerns still exist. Inflation expectations are stabilizing, and market expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates have increased this week [8]. - Domestic macro: The domestic economic fundamentals have not changed significantly this week. Both domestic and external demand have some resilience, but the upward drive depends on the acceleration of existing policies and the implementation of incremental policies. The real estate market is in a slow season, and infrastructure construction's physical workload is seasonally decreasing. Local special bond issuance has increased at the end of the month, and the remaining trade - in funds will be allocated in July to support consumption [8]. - Asset views: The domestic economy remains stable, with mainly structural opportunities for domestic assets. Policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year. Overseas geopolitical risks may increase short - term market volatility, while the long - term weak - dollar pattern continues. Attention should be paid to non - dollar assets and strategic allocation of resources such as gold [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market and Commodity Price Movements - **Domestic financial markets**: The CSI 300 futures rose 0.24% daily, 0.24% weekly, 3.57% monthly, 1.09% quarterly, and - 0.90% year - to - date. Treasury bond futures generally declined, with the 30 - year Treasury bond futures down 0.39% daily. The dollar index was flat, and the dollar - yuan central parity rate decreased by 41 pips daily. Interest rates such as the 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate increased [3][5]. - **Domestic commodities**: The shipping sector's container shipping to Europe route decreased by 2.42% daily. Among non - ferrous metals, copper decreased by 0.06% daily, while zinc increased by 0.38% daily. In the energy and chemical sector, NYMEX WTI crude oil decreased by 0.23% daily, and ICE UK natural gas decreased by 2.90% daily. Agricultural products showed mixed trends, with CBOT soybeans rising 0.89% daily and CBOT corn rising 1.79% daily [3][4][5]. 3.2 Macro Analysis - **Overseas macro**: The US consumer sentiment is improving, but tariff policies make consumers cautious. The inflation expectation structure is stabilizing, and market expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates have increased [8]. - **Domestic macro**: The domestic economic fundamentals are stable, but the real estate market is in a slow season, and infrastructure construction's physical workload is decreasing seasonally. Local special bond issuance is increasing, and consumption - supporting funds will be allocated in July [8]. 3.3 Viewpoints on Various Sectors - **Macro**: Overseas stagflation trading is cooling down, and the long - and short - term allocation strategies are diverging. Domestically, there may be moderate reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and the fiscal side will implement established policies in the short term. Overseas, the inflation expectation structure is flattening, and economic growth expectations are improving [10]. - **Financial**: The bullish sentiment in both the stock and bond markets has declined. Stock index futures are in a state of releasing capital congestion, and stock index options require waiting for a decline in volatility. The bullish sentiment in the bond market has weakened [10]. - **Precious metals**: Risk appetite has recovered, and precious metals are undergoing short - term adjustments. The short - term trend will continue to adjust due to the progress of Sino - US negotiations [10]. - **Shipping**: Market sentiment has declined. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the increase in the loading rate in June, and the game between peak - season expectations and price increases needs to be monitored [10]. - **Black building materials**: The sector remains in a volatile pattern. Attention should be paid to the recovery of coal supply in July. Coke has completed four rounds of price cuts, and the sentiment of stabilizing prices is increasing. Coking coal supply is continuously disrupted, and the market sentiment is high [10]. - **Non - ferrous metals and new materials**: The coexistence of low inventory and weak demand expectations leads to continued volatility in non - ferrous metals. Copper prices are high due to a weak dollar index, while zinc is expected to decline due to an oversupply situation [10]. - **Energy and chemicals**: Crude oil prices are stable, and the positive basis of chemicals provides some support. Most products are in a volatile state, with some expected to decline and a few expected to rise [12]. - **Agriculture**: Sino - US negotiations have made substantial progress, which is beneficial for the cotton price to rebound. Most agricultural products are in a volatile state, with some expected to decline, such as pulp [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Market sentiment continues to warm up, with risk assets showing a preference. The domestic economy remains stable, presenting mainly structural opportunities for domestic assets, and the policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year. Overseas geopolitical risks may increase short - term market volatility, while the weak US dollar pattern will continue in the long run. Attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets and strategic allocation to resources such as gold [6]. - The overseas stagflation trading cools down, and the ideas of long - short allocation diverge. In the financial sector, the bullish sentiment for stocks and bonds has declined. For precious metals, risk appetite has recovered, leading to a short - term adjustment. Shipping sentiment has declined, and the duration of the increase in the loading rate in June should be monitored. In the black building materials sector, the performance of furnace materials is better than that of finished products. The low inventory reality and weak demand expectations in the non - ferrous and new materials sector lead to continued oscillations. In the energy and chemical sector, crude oil remains stable, and the positive basis of chemicals provides some support. In the agricultural sector, the substantial progress of Sino - US negotiations is beneficial for the market [7][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: US consumer sentiment has improved, and the economic fundamentals are recovering. However, due to tariff policies, consumers remain cautious about the future. This week, the long - term inflation expectation has stabilized, the short - term inflation expectation has risen, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has increased [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: The domestic fundamentals have changed little this week, with both internal and external demand showing some resilience. The real estate market is in the off - season, and the infrastructure physical workload has decreased seasonally. At the local level, the issuance of special bonds has increased at the end of the month, and the remaining trade - in funds from the central government will be issued in July to support consumption [6]. - **Asset Views**: Domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities, and overseas geopolitical risks may cause short - term market fluctuations. In the long run, the weak US dollar pattern will continue, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets and strategic allocation to resources such as gold [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Macro - Domestic: Moderate reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the implementation of established fiscal policies in the short term. - Overseas: The inflation expectation structure flattens, the economic growth expectation improves, and the stagflation trading cools down [7]. 3.2.2 Finance - Stock index futures: Funds are releasing congestion, with a short - term judgment of oscillation. - Stock index options: Sellers need to wait for the inflection point of the decline in volatility, with a short - term judgment of oscillation. - Treasury bond futures: The bullish sentiment in the bond market has declined, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [7]. 3.2.3 Precious Metals - Gold and silver: With the recovery of risk appetite, precious metals are in a short - term adjustment, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [7]. 3.2.4 Shipping - Container shipping to Europe: Focus on the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [7]. 3.2.5 Black Building Materials - Coke: Pessimistic sentiment fades, and the price remains stable, with a short - term judgment of oscillation. - Coking coal: Transaction conditions improve, but confidence is still insufficient, with a short - term judgment of oscillation. - Other varieties: Most varieties are in a state of oscillation, while soda ash is expected to oscillate downward [7]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous and New Materials - Most non - ferrous metals are in a state of oscillation, while zinc is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities, and nickel and stainless steel are expected to oscillate downward [7]. 3.2.7 Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: The rebound is limited, with a short - term judgment of oscillation and decline. - LPG: Weak oscillation due to geopolitical easing. - Other varieties: Different varieties have different short - term judgments, such as oscillation, oscillation and rise, or oscillation and decline [9]. 3.2.8 Agriculture - Most agricultural products are in a state of oscillation, with different influencing factors and short - term trends [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic economy maintains a stable pattern, with domestic assets presenting mainly structural opportunities. The policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year. Overseas geopolitical risks may intensify short - term market fluctuations and disrupt risk preferences. In the long run, the weak US dollar pattern continues. Attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets and strategic allocation of resources such as gold [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: In June, the Fed kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, with a more cautious outlook on下半年 rate cuts. US economic data in May was weak, and the economic recovery is limited by geopolitical risks and trade uncertainties. Rising oil prices may prompt the Fed to send hawkish signals [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: The Lujiazui Financial Forum announced multiple financial support policies, strengthening policy expectations for the second half of the year. In May, fixed - asset investment expanded, manufacturing investment grew rapidly, and the service industry accelerated. Industrial and consumer data also showed positive growth [7]. - **Asset Views**: Domestic assets offer structural opportunities, driven by policies in the second half of the year. Overseas geopolitical risks may cause short - term market fluctuations, while the long - term weak US dollar pattern persists. Attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets and strategic allocation of gold [7]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Funds are releasing congestion, and the market is expected to fluctuate. Key points to watch include end - of - day stock stampedes and deterioration of US dollar liquidity [8]. - **Stock Index Options**: Sellers should wait for the inflection point of declining volatility, and the market is expected to fluctuate. The continuous deterioration of option liquidity is a concern [8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bullish sentiment in the bond market has declined, and the market is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to unexpected changes in tariffs, supply, and monetary easing [8]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Due to better - than - expected progress in Sino - US negotiations, precious metals will continue to adjust in the short term. Key points include Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy, and the market is expected to fluctuate [8]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Attention should be paid to the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation. The market is expected to fluctuate, and key points include tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies [8]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel Products**: The macro sentiment has improved, but contradictions are accumulating. The market is expected to fluctuate, and key points include the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and molten iron production [8]. - **Iron Ore**: Molten iron production has slightly increased, and prices are fluctuating. Key points include overseas mine production and shipping, domestic molten iron production, weather, port ore inventory, and policy dynamics [8]. - **Coke**: Pessimistic sentiment has faded, and prices are stable. Key points include steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [8]. - **Coking Coal**: Transaction volume has improved, but confidence is still insufficient. Key points include steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [8]. - **Silicon Iron**: Cost expectations have improved, and the market performance is strong. Key points include raw material costs and steel procurement [8]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Cost disturbances have emerged again, and the market performance is strong. Key points include cost prices and overseas quotes [8]. - **Glass**: Supply disturbances have affected sentiment, and production and sales have weakened. The key point is spot production and sales [8]. - **Soda Ash**: Intermediate inventory has decreased, and the market is under pressure. The key point is soda ash inventory, and the market is expected to decline with fluctuations [8]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: The US dollar index is weak, and copper prices are at a high level. Key points include supply disturbances, unexpected domestic policies, less - than - expected dovishness of the Fed, and less - than - expected recovery of domestic demand [8]. - **Alumina**: The number of warehouse receipts is low, and the alumina market has risen. Key points include unexpected delays in ore resumption, excessive electrolytic aluminum resumption, and extreme sector trends [8]. - **Aluminum**: Low inventory and high premiums have pushed up aluminum prices. Key points include macro risks, supply disturbances, and less - than - expected demand [8]. - **Zinc**: The supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities. Key points include macro - turning risks and unexpected recovery of zinc ore supply. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations [8]. - **Lead**: Cost support has strengthened again, and the downside of lead prices is limited. Key points include supply - side disturbances and slowdown in battery exports [8]. - **Nickel**: Supply and demand are under pressure, and nickel prices are expected to be weak in the short term. Key points include unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and insufficient supply release [8]. - **Stainless Steel**: Nickel - iron prices continue to decline, and the market is expected to fluctuate. Key points include Indonesian policy risks and unexpected demand growth [8]. - **Tin**: Spot transactions are dull, and tin prices are fluctuating. Key points include expectations of Wa State's resumption of production and demand improvement [8]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply is continuously increasing, and silicon prices are under pressure. Key points include unexpected supply cuts and unexpected photovoltaic installations [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Warehouse receipts have significantly decreased, and price fluctuations should be watched out for. Key points include less - than - expected demand, supply disturbances, and new technological breakthroughs [8]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: US inventory pressure has eased, and short - term geopolitical disturbances should be watched. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations. Key points include OPEC+ production policies and Middle East geopolitical situations [10]. - **LPG**: Geopolitical tensions have eased, and the market is weakly fluctuating. Key points include cost developments of crude oil and overseas propane [10]. - **Asphalt**: The expectation of increased production is strong, and asphalt prices are expected to follow crude oil down. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations, and the key point is unexpected demand [10]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Israel has resumed gas field production, and fuel oil prices may continue to be under pressure. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations, and key points include crude oil and natural gas prices [10]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil prices are expected to follow crude oil down. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations, and key points include crude oil and natural gas prices [10]. - **Methanol**: Tensions between Iran and Israel have eased, and the market is fluctuating. Key points include macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics [10]. - **Urea**: Exports are used to balance domestic supply - demand differences, and the market may be slightly stronger in the short term. The market is expected to rise with fluctuations. Key points include market transactions, policy trends, and demand fulfillment [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Rising ethylene prices have boosted ethylene derivatives, and the market is expected to fluctuate and adjust. The key point is ethylene glycol terminal demand [10]. - **PX**: Supply is tight, and geopolitical developments should be watched. The market is expected to fluctuate. Key points include crude oil fluctuations and downstream device abnormalities [10]. - **PTA**: Supply - demand has weakened marginally, but the current situation is okay and costs are strong. The market is expected to fluctuate. The key point is polyester production [10]. - **Short - Fiber**: The short - fiber industry is healthy, and spot processing fees have slightly increased. The market is expected to rise with fluctuations. The key point is terminal textile and clothing exports [10]. - **Bottle Chips**: The market follows raw materials, and the industry is waiting for production cuts. The market is expected to fluctuate. The key point is future bottle - chip start - up [10]. - **PP**: Crude oil prices have fallen, and the market is fluctuating. Key points include crude oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations [10]. - **Plastic**: Geopolitical premiums have declined, and the market is fluctuating. Key points include crude oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations [10]. - **Styrene**: Geopolitical tensions have cooled down, and the market is expected to decline. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations. Key points include crude oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [10]. - **PVC**: With low valuation and weak supply - demand, the market is fluctuating. Key points include expectations, costs, and supply [10]. - **Caustic Soda**: Dynamic costs have increased, and the market is temporarily fluctuating. Key points include market sentiment, start - up, and demand [10]. - **Oils and Fats**: The sustainability of the rebound should be watched, and the weather in US soybean - producing areas is good. The market is expected to fluctuate. Key points include South American soybean harvest, US soybean planting, and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [10]. - **Protein Meal**: The expectation of soybean meal imports has hit the market, and the support at the bottom should be watched. The market is expected to fluctuate. Key points include US soybean area and weather, domestic demand, macro - situation, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars [10]. - **Corn/Starch**: The market is fluctuating, and spot prices are still firm. Key points include less - than - expected demand, macro - situation, and weather [10]. - **Pigs**: Upstream price - holding sentiment is strong, and demand is in the off - season. The market is expected to fluctuate. Key points include breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [10]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - **Rubber**: A warm macro - environment has driven up rubber prices. The market is expected to fluctuate. Key points include production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes [10]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market's follow - up increase is limited. The key point is significant crude oil price fluctuations [10]. - **Pulp**: The weak trend remains unchanged. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations. Key points include macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US - dollar - denominated quotes [10]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices continue to rebound with increased positions. The market is expected to fluctuate. Key points include demand and output [10]. - **Sugar**: The domestic and international markets are differentiated, and the domestic market is rebounding with fluctuations. The key point is abnormal weather [10]. - **Logs**: There are no obvious fundamental contradictions, and the market is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Key points include shipment volume and dispatch volume [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: The Fed maintained the federal funds rate unchanged for the fourth consecutive time in June, with a more cautious outlook on下半年 rate cuts. US economic fundamentals face geopolitical risks and uncertainties in trade prospects, and rising oil prices may prompt the Fed to adopt a hawkish stance [6]. - Domestic macro: The Lujiazui Financial Forum announced multiple financial support policies, increasing expectations for下半年 policies. In May, fixed - asset investment expanded, manufacturing and service industries grew, and industrial and consumer data showed positive trends [6]. - Asset viewpoint: The domestic economy maintains a weak - stable pattern, with mainly structural opportunities for domestic assets. Overseas geopolitical risks may increase short - term market volatility, while the long - term weak - dollar pattern continues [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro Essentials - **Overseas Macro** - The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.50% in June. US economic data such as retail sales, industrial output, and the manufacturing index were weak. Economic recovery is limited by geopolitical and trade uncertainties, and high oil prices may lead to a hawkish Fed [6]. - **Domestic Macro** - The Lujiazui Financial Forum announced financial support policies. 162 billion yuan of "national subsidy" funds have been allocated to local areas, and the remaining will be distributed gradually. In May, fixed - asset investment, industrial and service sectors, and consumer spending all showed positive growth [6]. - **Asset Viewpoint** - Domestic assets offer mainly structural opportunities. Overseas geopolitical risks may cause short - term market fluctuations, and the long - term weak - dollar trend continues. Strategic allocation to resources like gold is recommended [6]. 2. Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial Sector** - **Stock Index Futures**: Funds are releasing congestion, with risks of end - of - session stock stampedes and deteriorating dollar liquidity, and are expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Stock Index Options**: Selling options requires waiting for a downward inflection point in volatility, with deteriorating option liquidity, and are expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Bullish sentiment in the bond market has declined, with risks of unexpected tariffs, supply, and monetary easing, and are expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Precious Metals** - Gold and silver are expected to continue short - term adjustments due to better - than - expected Sino - US negotiations, with attention to Trump's tariff policies and the Fed's monetary policy, and are expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Shipping** - The container shipping market to Europe is expected to focus on the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation, with attention to tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies, and is expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Black Building Materials** - **Steel Products**: Inventory is being depleted, with limited fundamental contradictions. Attention should be paid to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and hot metal production, and they are expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Iron Ore**: Hot metal production has increased, and port inventory has slightly decreased. Attention should be paid to overseas mine production and shipment, domestic hot metal production, weather, port inventory, and policy dynamics, and it is expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Coke**: A fourth round of price cuts is imminent, and prices are weakly stable. Attention should be paid to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment, and it is expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Coking Coal**: Transaction volume has improved, and the price decline has slowed. Attention should be paid to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment, and it is expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials** - **Copper**: The dollar index is weak, and copper prices are high. Attention should be paid to supply disruptions, domestic policy surprises, the Fed's dovish stance, domestic demand recovery, and economic recession, and it is expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The number of warehouse receipts is low, and the alumina futures price has risen. Attention should be paid to unexpected delays in ore production resumption, excessive electrolytic aluminum production resumption, and extreme sector trends, and it is expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Aluminum**: Low inventory and high premiums have led to a rise in aluminum prices. Attention should be paid to macro risks, supply disruptions, and insufficient demand, and it is expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Zinc**: The supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to macro - turning risks and unexpected increases in zinc ore supply, and it is expected to decline with fluctuations [8]. - **Nickel**: Supply and demand are under pressure, and nickel prices are expected to be weak in the short term. Attention should be paid to unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and insufficient supply release, and it is expected to decline with fluctuations [8]. - **Energy and Chemical Industry** - **Crude Oil**: The US may intervene in the Israel - Iran conflict, and crude oil will continue to have high volatility. Attention should be paid to OPEC+ production policies, the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks, and US sanctions on Iran [11]. - **Methanol**: The Israel - Iran conflict has not subsided, and methanol is expected to be strong with fluctuations. Attention should be paid to macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics [11]. - **Urea**: Geopolitical disturbances and the start of domestic and foreign demand have led to a strong futures price. Attention should be paid to market transactions, policy trends, and demand fulfillment [11]. - **Agriculture** - **Oils and Fats**: Yesterday's performance was differentiated, with soybean oil being strong. Attention should be paid to South American soybean harvests, US soybean planting, and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data, and it is expected to rise with fluctuations [11]. - **Protein Meal**: Oil mills' inventory accumulation may put pressure on the basis, and the futures - cash market is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to US soybean planting area and weather, domestic demand, macro factors, and trade disputes [11]. - **Corn/Starch**: The number of incoming vehicles is low, and the futures and cash prices are expected to be strong with fluctuations. Attention should be paid to insufficient demand, macro factors, and weather [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas macro: The US economic fundamentals still have the momentum to recover, but the recovery is disturbed by geopolitical risks and uncertainties in economic and trade prospects. The Fed is expected to "hold steady" in June due to the rebound of May CPI data falling short of expectations and the potential hawkish signals from the soaring oil prices [6]. - Domestic macro: The domestic price level remains weakly stable, with the downstream performing better than the upstream. International input factors lead to price declines in related industries, and downstream production tends to digest existing inventories, increasing pressure on upstream production. The PPI - CPI gap shows downward pressure recently [6]. - Asset views: Domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities due to the weakly stable pattern of domestic prices and the economy, with the policy - driven logic strengthening. Overseas geopolitical risks may increase short - term market volatility, while in the long term, the weak - dollar pattern continues. Attention should be paid to non - dollar assets and strategic allocation of resources such as gold [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Essentials - **Overseas Macro**: The US economic fundamentals continue to recover from the contraction in Q1, but are affected by geopolitical risks and trade uncertainties. The Fed is likely to "hold steady" in June as the May CPI rebound is below expectations, and the soaring oil prices may prompt the Fed to send hawkish signals [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: The domestic price level is weakly stable, with the downstream outperforming the upstream. International factors cause price drops in upstream industries, and downstream production focuses on inventory digestion, increasing upstream pressure. The PPI - CPI gap shows recent downward pressure [6]. - **Asset Views**: Domestic assets offer mainly structural opportunities, and the policy - driven logic is strengthened. Overseas geopolitical risks may increase short - term market volatility. In the long run, the weak - dollar pattern persists, and attention should be given to non - dollar assets and strategic allocation of gold [6]. 3.2 View Highlights **Macro**: - **Domestic**: Moderate reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts are implemented, and the fiscal end implements established policies in the short term [7]. - **Overseas**: The inflation expectation structure flattens, the economic growth expectation improves, and the stagflation trading cools down [7]. **Financial**: - **Stock Index Futures**: Micro - cap risks are not yet released, and the market is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the trading congestion of micro - cap stocks [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: The market is stable, and cautious covered strategies are recommended. Focus on the liquidity of the options market [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The short - end may be relatively strong, and the market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to changes in the capital market and policy expectations [7]. **Precious Metals**: - **Gold/Silver**: The progress of China - US negotiations exceeds expectations, and precious metals continue to adjust in the short term. Monitor Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy [7]. **Shipping**: - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Pay attention to the game between the peak - season expectation and the implementation of price increases. The market is expected to fluctuate. Focus on tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies [7]. **Black Building Materials**: - **Steel**: The static fundamentals are good, but the demand expectation is weak. The market is expected to fluctuate. Monitor the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and hot metal production [7]. - **Iron Ore**: Steel mills' hot metal production slightly decreases, and port inventories increase slightly. The market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to overseas mine production and shipping, domestic hot metal production, weather, port inventory changes, and policy dynamics [7]. - **Coke**: Demand support weakens, and the futures price is under pressure. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations. Focus on steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [7]. - **Coking Coal**: Upstream inventories continue to accumulate, and mine shutdowns increase. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations. Monitor steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [7]. - **Silicon Iron**: The supply - demand expectation is poor, and the futures price fluctuates at the bottom. The market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to raw material costs and steel procurement [7]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The Hebei Steel tender is announced, and market sentiment is poor. The market is expected to fluctuate. Focus on cost prices and overseas quotes [7]. - **Glass**: Spot sales and production weaken, and inventories decrease slightly. The market is expected to fluctuate. Monitor spot sales and production [7]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply gradually recovers, and upstream inventories accumulate. The market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to soda ash inventories [7]. **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: - **Copper**: The US dollar index is weak, and copper prices are operating at a high level. The market is expected to fluctuate. Monitor supply disruptions, domestic policy surprises, the Fed's less - dovish - than - expected stance, and the less - than - expected recovery of domestic demand [7]. - **Alumina**: The spot price drops, and the alumina futures price is under pressure. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations. Pay attention to the less - than - expected resumption of ore production, the more - than - expected resumption of electrolytic aluminum production, and extreme sector trends [7]. - **Aluminum**: Affected by Trump's steel and aluminum tariff increase and other factors, the aluminum price fluctuates at a high level. The market is expected to fluctuate. Monitor macro risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand [7]. - **Zinc**: After the price drop, downstream procurement is active. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations. Pay attention to macro - turning risks and the more - than - expected recovery of zinc ore supply [7]. - **Lead**: Cost support is temporarily stable, and the lead price fluctuates. The market is expected to fluctuate. Monitor supply - side disruptions and the slowdown of battery exports [7]. - **Nickel**: The Philippines removes the ban on raw ore exports, and the nickel price is weak in the short term. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations. Pay attention to macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and less - than - expected supply release [7]. - **Stainless Steel**: The nickel - iron price continues to decline, and the futures price fluctuates. The market is expected to fluctuate. Monitor Indonesian policy risks and more - than - expected demand growth [7]. - **Tin**: The supply - demand fundamentals are resilient, and the tin price fluctuates. The market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to the resumption expectation of Wa State and the change in demand improvement expectation [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The oversupply situation remains unchanged, and the silicon price is under pressure. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations. Monitor more - than - expected supply cuts and more - than - expected photovoltaic installations [7]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Market sentiment deteriorates, and the price is under pressure. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations. Pay attention to less - than - expected demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs [8]. **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risks intensify, and oil price fluctuations increase. The market is expected to fluctuate. Monitor OPEC+ production policies, the progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, and US sanctions on Iran [9]. - **LPG**: Cost - side support increases, and LPG follows the crude oil rebound. The market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to developments in crude oil and overseas propane costs [9]. - **Asphalt**: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalate, and the asphalt futures price strengthens. The market is expected to fluctuate. Monitor more - than - expected demand [9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East lead to a resurgence of the geopolitical premium of fuel oil. The market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to crude oil and natural gas prices [9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel oil futures price follows the crude oil price increase. The market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to crude oil and natural gas prices [9]. - **Methanol**: The Iran - Israel conflict causes a significant increase in methanol prices. The market is expected to fluctuate. Monitor macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics [9]. - **Urea**: The supply - strong and demand - weak pattern remains unchanged, and the futures price is weak. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations. Pay attention to market transactions, policy trends, and demand realization [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Terminal demand is less than expected, and inventory reduction through maintenance is reflected in the monthly spread. The market is expected to rise with fluctuations. Monitor the terminal demand for ethylene glycol [9]. - **PX**: Supply restarts quickly. Monitor PTA production and polyester start - up. The market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to crude oil fluctuations and downstream device changes [9]. - **PTA**: Supply increases and demand decreases, and the PTA pattern weakens marginally. The market is expected to fluctuate. Monitor polyester production [9]. - **Short - Fiber**: Short - fiber industry production cuts lead to a slight repair of processing fees. The market is expected to rise with fluctuations. Pay attention to terminal textile and clothing exports [9]. - **Bottle Chips**: High - level production leads to oversupply, and low processing fees will continue. The market is expected to fluctuate. Monitor the later start - up of bottle chips [9]. - **PP**: The oil price rises significantly, but the fundamentals are still under pressure, and PP rebounds. The market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to the oil price and domestic and international macro situations [9]. - **Plastic**: In the short term, it follows the oil price fluctuations and rebounds. The market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to the oil price and domestic and international macro situations [9]. - **Styrene**: Macro expectations rise again, and styrene rebounds. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations. Pay attention to the oil price, macro policies, and device dynamics [9]. - **PVC**: Geopolitical conflicts boost market sentiment, and PVC is recommended to be shorted at high prices. The market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to expectations, costs, and supply [9]. - **Caustic Soda**: The cost center weakens, and caustic soda runs weakly. The market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to market sentiment, start - up, and demand [9]. - **Oils and Fats**: The production increase pressure of Malaysian palm oil may weaken marginally, and the weather in the US soybean - producing areas is normal. The market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to South American soybean harvest, US soybean planting, and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [9]. - **Protein Meal**: The basis of soybean meal from October to January increases in volume, and the hedging pressure on the futures market increases. The market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to the US soybean planting area and weather, domestic demand, macro situation, and China - US and China - Canada trade wars [9]. - **Corn/Starch**: The spot price increase slows down, and the futures price is weak. The market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to less - than - expected demand, macro situation, and weather [9]. **Agriculture**: - **Hogs**: The average weight is high, and the spot and near - month prices are still under pressure. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations. Pay attention to farming sentiment, epidemics, and policies [9]. - **Rubber**: The rebound ends, and the price drops rapidly in the afternoon. The market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to the weather in production areas, raw material prices, and macro changes [9]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It first falls and then rises, and is treated as weak. The market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to significant crude oil price fluctuations [9]. - **Paper Pulp**: The futures price drops, and there is a greater possibility of breaking through the lower platform. The market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to macro - economic changes and US dollar - based price quotations [9]. - **Cotton**: The rebound height of the cotton price is limited. The market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to demand and production [9]. - **Sugar**: The new - season sugar market is expected to be loose, and domestic and international sugar prices continue to decline. The market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to abnormal weather [9]. - **Logs**: The spot price weakens, and the futures price is weak. The market is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to shipment volume and shipping volume [9].